Methodologies for ecological baselines

and prediction of impacts on

biodiversity resources
Dr. Asha Rajvanshi
ar@wii.gov.in
Senior Reader and Faculty In-charge, EIA Cell,
Wildlife Institute of India, INDIA

IAIA 06 Pre-meeting training course - Stavanger, Norway

Impact Identification

Determining what is good and bad
about the proposed development ?

Impact is defined as a value

judgment on the importance of a
change measured through varied
parameters and indicators

Impacts on health
Global warming effects
Air and water pollution, toxicity
Respiratory effects
Impacts on agricultural system
Crop yields
Irrigation demands
Impacts on forest
Forest productivity, composition
Geographic range
Change in habitat quality
Impacts on water resources
Change in water table
Change in water quality
Changes in population of wetland birds
Impacts on coastal areas
Beach erosion
Inundation of coastal land, reduction in
coastal habitat
Species and wildlife habitats
Loss of habitat and species
Shift in ecological zones

Impact prediction
A window into the future

EIA methods

Formal methods standardized as
guides/tool kits

Adhoc methods developed according to
the situation

Impact Assessment Procedures

1. Briefing, Consultation and Workshops
2. Checklists
3. Matrices
4. Networks
5. Overlays
6. Other specialized biodiversity or habitat
suitability models
7. Computer aided methods

Checklists

A variety of methods varying in
complexity and characteristics

All share the common basis of an
index of environmental factors or
development activities


Simple checklists

Descriptive checklists

Questionnaire checklists

Weighting-scaling checklists

Simple checklists

Provide assessor with a list of factors to be

considered, but no information provided on:


specific data needs

methods of assessing importance of impacts

ways of measuring change to environmental factors

Used as aide memoir to identify impacts

Can provide structure to initial part of

scoping stage

Simple checklists of Potential Impacts of the

construction phase of the Transportation Project
Noise Impacts
Construction Phase
I. Noise impacts
x
A. Public health
B. Land use
II.
Air quality impacts
x
A. Public health
B. Land use
III. Water quality impacts
x
A. Groundwater
I. Flow and water-table alteration
2. Interaction with surface drainage
B. Surface water
I. Shoreline and bottom alteration
2
Effects of filling and dredging
3. Drainage and flood characteristics
more.

Noise Impacts
Construction Phase
C. Quality aspects
I. Effect of effluent loadings .
2. Implication of other actions, such as
a.
Disturbance of benthic layers
b.
Alteration of currents
c.
Changes in flow regime
d.
Saline intrusion in groundwater
3. Land use
4. Public health
IV.
Soil erosion impacts
x
A. Economic and land use
B. Pollution and siltation
V. Ecological impacts
x
A. Flora
B. Fauna (other than humans)

x
x

x
x

Adverse

Irreversible

Reversible

Long-term

Beneficial

Short-term

Negative effect

Problematic

Wildlife
Endangered Species
Natural Vegetation
Exotic Vegetation
Grading
Soil Characteristics
Natural Drainage
Forest Productivity
Noise
Surface Paving
Recreation
Air Quality
x
Visual Disruption
Open Space
Health and Safety
Economic Values
Public Facilities
(Including schools)
Public Services
Confirmity to Regional Plans

Positive effect

Environmental Areas

No Effects

Descriptive checklist

x
x

x
x

x
x

x
x

x
x

x
x

x
x

x
x
x

x
x

x
x

x
x

x
x

Limitations It only recognises impact - ?

x
x
x
x
x
x

Quantitative information - nil

x
x

Part of a questionnaire checklist

Will the project lead to

impacts on herbivores
species

Will the project involve

submergence of critical
habitats of endangered
species

Will the project lead to acid

mine drainage into a
wetlands

Will the removal of some

tree species during forest
clearance for reservoir
significantly effect the
fodder resources for
elephants

Yes

No

Not known

Yes

No

Not known

Yes

No

Not known

Benefits of checklists

Comparatively simple method

Not necessarily project specific

Once established, can be used in
many different situations

Problems with checklists

It only recognises impact and provides no

quantitative information

Can never be considered as definite or

complete

Do not help to identify secondary/higher

order impacts

Tend to compartmentalise

Interaction matrices

Two dimensional version of a checklist

Attempts to identify interactions between

development actions on one axis and
environmental parameters on the other

Variety of forms available

Leopold matrix

Developed by United States Geological Survey 1971

100 actions x 88 environmental items

IMPACT - identified at the interaction between the

above

Impacts can be identified:

by signs:

   

qualitatively: good, moderate, high

quantitatively: absolute/relative (NOT OBJECTIVE)

Impacts can be POSITIVE or NEGATIVE

Leopold interaction matrix

Actions causing impact

Environmental items

Magnitude

Leopold matrix
a

2/1

8/5

3/7

1/10

4/8

4/9

3/3

7/2

8/8

9/7

5/5

1/1

3/6

2/3

4/5

7/2

4/6

2/2

etc.

meaning of x/y:

x = Relative magnitude
y = Relative importance
a,b,c, are activities

A,B,C are environmental parameters

etc.

The Leopold Matrix (Leopold et al., 1971). Part 1 Lists the Project Actions
(Arranged Horizontally in the Matrix); Part 2 Lists the Environmental
Characteristics and Conditions (Arranged Vertically in the Matrix)

Part 1 : Project Actions

A. Modification of Regime
a)
Exotic flora or fauna
introduction
b)
Biological controls
c)
Modification of habitat
d)
Alternation of ground cover
e)
Alternation of ground-water
hydrology
f)
Alternation of drainage
g)
River control and flow
codification
h)
Canalization
i)
Irrigation
j)
Weather modification
k)
Burning
l)
Surface or paving
m) Noise and vibration

B.
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
g)
h)
i)
j)
k)
l)
m)
n)
o)
p)
q)
r)
s)

Land transformation and construction

Urbanization
Industrial sites and buildings
Airports
Highways and bridges
Roads and trails
Railroads
Cables and lifts
Transmission lines, pipelines, and
corridors
Barriers, including fencing
Channel dredging and straightening
Channel revetments
Canals
Dams and impoundments
Piers, seawalls, marinas & sea terminals
Offshore structures
Recreational structures
Blasting and drilling
Cut and fill
Tunnels and underground structures

C.
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
g)

Resource Extraction
Blasting and drilling
Surface excavation
Sub-surface excavation
and retorting
Well drilling and fluid
removal
Dredging
Clear cutting and other
lumbering
Commercial fishing and
hunting

D.
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
g)
h)
i)
j)
k)
l)
m)
n)
o)

Processing
Farming
Ranching and grazing
Food lots
Dairying
Energy generation
Mineral processing
Metallurgical industry
Chemical industry
Textile industry
Automobile and aircraft
Oil refining
Food
Lumbering
Pulp and paper
Product storage

E.

Land Alteration

G.

Changes in Traffic

a)

Erosion control and terracing

a)

Railway

b)

Mine sealing and waste control

b)

Automobile

c)

Strip mining rehabilitation

c)

Trucking

d)

Landscaping

d)

Shipping

e)

Harbour dredging

e)

Aircraft

f)

Marsh fill and drainage

f)

River and canal traffic

g)

Pleasure boating

F.

Resource Renewal

h)

Trails

a)

Reforestation

i)

Cables and lifts

b)

Wildlife stocking and

management

j)

Communication

k)

Pipeline

c)

Ground-water recharge

d)

Fertilization application

e)

Waste recycling

H.
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
g)
h)
i)
j)
k)
l)
m)
n)

Waste Emplacement and Treatment

Ocean dumping
Landfill
Emplacement of tailings, spoil, and
overburden
Underground storage
Junk disposal
Oil-well flooding
Deep-well emplacement
Cooling-water discharge
Municipal waste discharge including
spray irrigation
Liquid effluent discharge
Stabilization and oxidation ponds
Septic tanks, commercial & domestic
Stack and exhaust emission
Spent lubricants

I.
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)

Chemical Treatment
Fertilization
Chemical deicing of highways,
etc.
Chemical stabilization of soil
Weed control
Insect control (pesticides)

J.
a)
b)
c)

Accidents
Explosions
Spills and leaks
Operational failure

Others
a)
b)

Leopold matrix

Matrices

Magnitude matrix

Time dependent matrix

Weighted matrix

Advantages of matrices

Easily modified, so many varieties have been

developed and used

Relationships between development and

environment made explicit

Can present a summary of anticipated

impacts in an easily understood format

Can also be useful in scoping

Suggested matrix for impact determination

Disadvantages of matrices

Fail to identify potential secondary or

tertiary impacts

May not provide an objective method for

comparing impact magnitudes or importance

Networks

Means of establishing the causal chain

of impacts

Offers a three dimensional approach to

identifying impacts

Can be limited by minimal information on

technical aspects

Can be visually complicated

Networks High order linkages between causes and effects

Primary

Secondary

Components of Activities

Project Activities

Impacts

Conceptual model of impact

networks.

Tertiary

Uses Highdensity
apartments

Major land use type Residential

Play areas

Identifies direct and indirect impacts

Parking areas

Tree removal

Initial
conditions

Excavation

Macadamized surfaces

Sewage system

Causal factors

Possible adverse impacts

Consequent
conditions

Control
mechanisms

Third
order
effects

Increased
Flooding
surface runoff

Gullying
+ erosion

Pollution of
Degradation of
ground-water water-supply

Health
hazard

Removal of
topsoil

Death
of flora

Decreased
fertility

Corrective
actions

Landscape
gardening
Building
code
Planting of
shrubs

A portion of Sorensons network used to display the possible consequences of

various forms of land use (Sorenson, 1971)

CHANGING QUALITY
OF TOURISM

CHANGING QUALITY
OF LIFE FOR WILDLIFE

Increased Incidents
between
Wildlife & People

Loss of Habitat

Deforestation &
Loss of Biodiversity

Erosion of
Gorge
Access Paths

River Bank
Erosion

Overgrazing
Around
Water Holes

Loss of Natural
Wilderness Value
Changes in
Animal Behaviour

Too small an area

for animal numbers
Selective Cutting
of trees for
Curio Wood

Water
Pollution

Riparian
Wave Vegetation
Effects Reduced

Oily discharges
from boats etc.

Demand for
Curios
Increased

More
Rafting
Licenses

River Bank & Island

Development

More
Jetties &
Boat Licenses

Constriction
of wildlife
movements
More Fences/
Enclosures

Harassment
of wildlife
Visual Disturbance Increasing
Impacts of wildlife noise levels

Expansion of
Hotels/Camps
& Tourist Facilities

More Aircraft
Flying Over
Falls & Town

More
Motor
Vehicles

New Road
& Bridge

Increased Visitor Numbers

Demand for
Low-spending
Tourism Increases

More Direct
International
Flights
Airport Upgrading

Improved Border
Facilities

Improved Road Links

Increased customs co-operation

Source: UNEP, 2002

Fisheries

Water quality

Fish

Network diagram of the

causal chain that begins
with application of
inorganic fertilizers

Algae

Dissolved
oxygen

Nitrogen and phosphorus

concentration in water
Vegetation
buffer
Soil

Reduction in
fertilizer application

Application of
inorganic fertilizer

Aquatic
macrophyte

Overlays
Composite
Ecological sites
Historic sites
Visual
Health
Settlements
Noise
Severance
Water
Advantages: Easy to understand, good display method and
good siting tool
Disadvantages: Address only direct impact,

Schematic representation of Map Overlay procedures that enable delineation of most

preferred road alignment (Route A) option to avoid sensitive habitats (core area of Tiger
Reserve shown in grey scale) and sites of animal distribution (represented by dots)

Benefits of overlays

Conceptually simple
Provide clear presentation
Highly versatile
Appropriate for assessing impacts occurring on
large areas (impacts of hydropower project on
regional hydrology, landscape level impacts)
Can predict geographical location of impacts
Very useful in developing site for alternatives

Limitations

Setting boundaries of certain parameters is

difficult leading to distorted information

Habitat Suitability Index Models

100
90

Predicted Condition
Without Project

80

Habitat Units

70
60

NET IMPACT

50
40
30

Predicted Condition With

Project

20
10

Target Years

10

Methods of analysis of impacts

Professional judgement

Quantitative mathematical models

Experiments, indices and models

Case studies

Soundness of predictions based on professional

judgement

Emission of gases from stacks were expected to have deleterious

effects on plant life

The impact on the aquatic system was expected to be small

The water fluctuation resulting from the project may seriously

affect nesting and feeding grounds of water birds

Amphibians and reptiles inhabiting wetland areas would be

adversely affected by Narmada Project

Terrestrial fauna were expected to be negatively affected

through direct loss of habitat to submergence

Pipeline along the Great Indian Bustard habitat will have serious
impact on GIB breeding

Determine impact significance

Evolve criteria for assessing impact
characteristics

Criteria for identifying impact

significance

Duration of project related actions

Location of project site

Urgency and quickness with which the
natural systems might deteriorate

Degree of irreversible damage to
natural resource base and resource
quality

Ecological significance criteria

Reduction in species

Habitat depletion or fragmentation

Threatened, rare and endangered
species

Impairment of ecological function


Disruption of food chain

Decline in species population

Alteration in predator-prey relationship

Determination of significance of negative impacts

Developing a matrix using importance value criteria for

determining conservation value of habitats and species

Scaling impact assessment

Adding dimensions to impacts

Scoring for wildlife values

Major rivers

Aquatic
fauna
Rupnarayan

Damodar

Ajoy

Kiul

Harohar

Ganges

Fishes

Turtles

Crocodiles

Migratory
Birds

Mammals
(Dolphin)

Total
score

Score:
Fish: 1=<5 Spp.; 2=6 10 Spp.; 3 =>10 Spp.

Turtle:

0=Absent, 1=Present

Migratory: 0=Absent, 1=Present

water fowl

Aquatic :
mammals

0=Absent, 1=Present

Scale for conservation significance

Faunal
groups

CSF
values

Rupnarayan
Wildlife
value
score

Wildlife
value
with
CSF

Damodar
Wildlife
value
score

Ajoy

Kiul

Harohar

Wild
-life
value
with
CSF

Wildlife
value
score

Wildlife
value
with
CSF

Wildlife
value
score

Wild
-life
value
with
CSF

Wildlife
value
score

Ganges

Wild
-life
value
with
CSF

Wildlife
value
score

Wildlife
value
with
CSF

Fishes

Turtles

Crocodiles

Migratory
waterfowl

5*

Aquatic
mammal
(Dolphin)

10

10

10

10

22

16

12

11

27

Total

* Baer's pochard sighting

Dimensions of disturbances

Dimensions of impact

Impact prediction is ultimately dependent on

Probability of risk

Predictability of an event or
a trend

Predicting impacts on biodiversity is

difficult but not impossible!