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IMPACT OF DROUGHT ON PASTORALISTS

LIVELIHOOD, THEIR PREVIOUS AND CURRENT


COPING STRATEGIES:
IN
THE CASE OF DENAN DISTRICT, OF SHABELE
ZONE, SOMALI REGIONAL STATE, ETHIOPIA
M.Sc. Thesis Research Proposal Submitted
By

MOAHMED ABDIKADIR AHMED


Major Advisor:Dr Belayneh Ayele (PhD)
1.

Co-advisor: Kindie Gebeyehu(MSc.)

July 2015
BahirDar, Ethiopia

Table of Contents
ABBREVIATIONS /ACRONYMS..........................................................................................................ii
LIST OF FIGURES..................................................................................................................................iii
1

LIST OF TABLES....................................................................................................................................iv
1. INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................................1
1.1.

BACKGROUND.............................................................................................................................1

1.2.

STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEMS.......................................................................................4

1.3.

SIGNIFICANCE AND SCOPE OF THE STUDY....................................................................5

1.4.

OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY.................................................................................................5

2.

1.4.1.

GENERAL OBJECTIVE....................................................................................................5

1.4.2.

SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES..................................................................................................6

LITERATURE REVIEW..................................................................................................................6
2.1.

What is Drought..........................................................................................................................6

2.2.

What is the Impact of drought...................................................................................................7

2.3Concepts of vulnerability
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------10
2.4 Drought management strategy
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------12
2.5 Coping Mechanisms to Drought Impacts
------------------------------------------------------------------------12
3.

MATERIALS AND METHODS.....................................................................................................16


3.1.

DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA...............................................................................16

3.2

DATA TYPES, SOURCES AND METHOD OF COLLECTION..........................................19

3.2.1. DATA TYPE AND SOURCES..............................................................................................19


3.2.2. METHOD OF COLLECTION.............................................................................................19
3.2.

SAMPLING PROCEDURE AND SAMPLE SIZE................................................................20

3.4. METHOD OF DATA ANALYSIS................................................................................................21


3.5 RESEARCH EXPECT OUTCOME............................................................................................22
4.

WORK PLAN AND BUDGET SCHEDULE.................................................................................22

4.1.
4.2.

WORK PLAN...............................................................................................................................22
RESEARCH BUDGET AND LOGISTICS.............................................................................23

ABBREVIATIONS /ACRONYMS
DPPB

Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Bureau

ESNRS

Ethiopian Somali National Regional State

FAO

Food Agricultural Organization

FGD

Focus Group Discussion

GHA

Great Horn of Africa

IPCC

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

KM

Kilo Miter

Km2

Kilo Miter Square

NGO

Non-governmental Organization

OWDA

Ogaden Welfare and Development Association

SC-UK

Save the Children United Kingdom

PAs

Peasant Associations

SPSS

Statistical package for social science

SRS

Somali Regional State

WCDP

World Conference on Disaster Prevention

LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Conceptual frame work for sustainable pastoral livelihood...................................14
Figure 2: Map of the Study Area................................................................................................15

LIST OF TABLE
4

Table 1: Work Plan Schedule......................................................................................................21


Table 2: Stationary costs.............................................................................................................22
Table 3: Transport and per diem expenses................................................................................22
Table 4: Miscellaneous expenses.................................................................................................23
Table 5: Total budget summary of the study.............................................................................23

1. INTRODUCTION
1.1.

BACKGROUND

Pastoralism and pastoral production systems support 100200 million people globally and
cover 41% of the Earth surface. This production system world over has evolved in dry land
areas of the planet, which constitute some of the harshest and remotest places on earth
(Oxfam, 2002). Drought has been a frequent phenomenon in these pastoral areas in recent
years and is one of the most inhibiting factors in pastoral and agro-pastoral production
systems in Africa. According to Hesse and MacGregor (2006), Pastoralists have highly
effective coping and recovery strategies to ensure resilience to risk.
In East Africa and by extension, the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), pastoralism is one of
the most important economic activities from which millions of people derive their
livelihoods. Pastoralists in this region keep a significant part of their wealth in form of
livestock. For example, out of the total population, pastoral and agro-pastoral populations
are about 60% in Somalia; 33% in Eritrea; 25% in Djibouti; 20% in Sudan and 12-15% in
Ethiopia (Coppock, 2005) and quoted in (Ahmed et al., 2001).
Drought is one of the most inhibiting factors in pastoral and agro-pastoral production
systems in the Horn of Africa. It has had important implications on the predicaments of
pastoral and agro-pastoral households and their ' responses to its various phases(Birch
2001).Drought is the most persistent and comprehensive risk that pastoralists face to their
lives and livelihoods, but the people of the Horn have adapted their way of life over many
centuries to cope with erratic rainfall moving with their animals across vast distances,
negotiating access to pasture with neighboring clans, establishing sophisticated trading
systems that provide access to lucrative markets in the Gulf states while spreading risk
among numerous market agents. As a result, pastoralists and traders in the Horn of Africa,
despite being politically marginalized and living in a highly vulnerable drought- and
conflict- prone region, have become relatively wealthy (Stephen 2006)

Ethiopia is a country of ecological and economic extremes. The central highlands, where
altitudes rise to above 4000m are surrounded by an apron of semi-arid lowlands, where
altitudes are often not much above sea level (see map of pastoral areas). The overwhelming
majority of the population of 55 million is rural. Most of these live in the highlands. This
high concentration of population on little over 40 percent of the land reflects the close
relationship between physiography, climate, economy and population distribution. The
average population density in the highlands is more than eight times that of the lowlands.
Food insecurity in Ethiopia has left many people in need of emergency assistance. Many of
those in need are pastoralists or agro-pastoralists in the countrys southern and southeastern Oromiya and Somali regions whose livelihoods depend on the fertility of the land
and the health of their livestock, both of which have been seriously compromised
(MDRET001).
In the past decades, the growth rate of agriculture sector in Ethiopia has lingered behind
the rate of population growth; and as a result, to support the demand of its population, the
country has become one of the net importers of agricultural products and lined along with
the major food aid recipients in Africa. Between 1980 and 1997, for instance, the annual
population growth was around 3 percent per annum, whereas cereal crop production grew
at a rate of only 0.9 percent per annum, indicating the declining food per capita, increasing
food insecurity and worsening poverty (Bewket, 2003) Between 1994 and 2007, the
population grew at an annual average rate of 2.6 percent, and projected to around 120
million by the year 2025 (Goldstone, 2007). Owing the above-mentioned facts and the high
sensitivity of Ethiopian agro-ecosystem to rainfall (Fraser, 2007) and low adaptive capacity
to respond to damages, even a week delays of rains had a large impact on livestock and
crop yield and on the overall socio-economic activity of the country.

The Ethiopian Somali National Regional State (ESNRS), with a population of around 5
million, depends very heavily on natural rains. Nearly 85% of the people living in this
2

regional state are pastoralists and subsist through herding of livestock. For more than 30
months rain has been poor and intermittent, placing the herds in danger and diminishing
the resources of a population who have only limited coping mechanisms in the best of times.
Because of erratic rainfall and poor pasture most of the pastoral people and their herds are
now moving long distances in search of grazing (DPPA 2007). In 19992000 and again in
2004, Somali Region in southeastern Ethiopia was struck by severe droughts that resulted
in numerous deaths of people and livestock, as well as the destitution and displacement of
many pastoralist families.A more fundamental question, however, is whether the
adaptation mechanisms that pastoralists have evolved in response to the predictable threat
of drought are collapsing, and what factors are increasing their livelihood vulnerability
(Stephen D 2006)

Somali Regional State (SRS) is one of the nine states that make up the federal democratic
republic. It is located in the south eastern part of Ethiopia bordering Kenya, Somalia, and
Djibouti. It consists of nine administrative zones and 68 woredas (or districts). The region
is geographically the second largest regional state in Ethiopia. Somali region is one of the
wealthiest states in terms of natural resource endowments, with three all-seasonal rivers
flowing through it and huge fertile land; it has the largest livestock resource compared to
any other region in the country as well as potential for fossil fuel and mineral deposits.
Paradoxically, it is one of the least developed sate with a high proportion of its population
being poor and frequently faced with high food insecurity (Salayman, OWDA 2011).
Pastoralism is the foundation of the local economy and the basis for the attainment of
livelihoods for an overwhelming part of the population of the region. Rainfall is often
insufficient and erratic in nature, and this limits both the potential for livestock and crop
production. Continuous degradation of environmental resources worsened by consecutive
droughts has diminished available pastoral resources in many areas of the Somali Region
(Salayman, OWDA 2011). As a result of these difficulties, the poor households in the region
are therefore frequently unable to meet their basic food requirements and often need
humanitarian assistance (SCUK/DPPB livelihood baseline studies 2004/05)
3

1.2.

STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEMS

Pastoral production system in Ethiopia and elsewhere in Eastern Africa is said to be under
a critical situation in the sense that it has become unable to Support the basic needs of
people whose very survival is strongly linked to the performance of this sector. This dismal
performance is attributed to several interrelated factors including population growth,
recurrent drought, conversion of rangelands into other uses, weak governance, increasing
insecurity, political and economic marginalization, policy and program related constraints to
mention but a few (Kashay et ai., 1998; Mkutu 2001). Consequently, pastoralists in the Hom
of Africa sub- region have long suffered from natural and manmade calamities including
drought, political isolation, conflict as a result of competition for natural resources and
falling levels of per capita income. In addition, inappropriate aid and development policies
continue to affect pastoralists throughout the region (Toulmin and Moorhead
1993;/Helland 1997)
One consequence of recurrent droughts in rapid succession is that poverty ratchets are
set up, especially in pastoralist households, which need longer to rebuild herds and flocks
than farmers need to return to normal harvests. Livestock traders also suffer from this
Currently, there are many parts of Ethiopia, which are highly affected by drought which is
historically said to be drought-prone areas. Little attention is given by government and
other non-government organizations for such areas despite they have been repeatedly
affected by drought. Because the level of information/data and knowledge on such areas
vulnerability to drought impact is very low and the attention of most researcher is towards
drought-prone areas (Defferew Kebebe 2011).

Denan Woreda is known for recurring drought that makes access one of the major
livelihood concern, for human consumption (drinking, cooking, washing), livestock
consumption (watering animals), and crop production. Farming and livestock rearing are
considered the key local economy and basis for attainment of livelihoods. Shortage and
4

erratic rainfall affect the overall livelihood of the pastoral ans agro-pastoral communities
living defectively in Denan.There are generally quite some studies conducted on the topic
impact of drought on the pastoralists livelihood and there coping mechanisms however,
the studies were only focusing on the impact of drought and the pastoralist coping
mechanism, without considering the comparison of the past and present coping
mechanisms thus, leaving aside the fading pastoralist coping strategies and why they are
declining. Therefore, this study will exceptionally explore declining pastoralist coping
mechanism by comparing the previous and current coping techniques as the study will
research the overall impact of drought on pastoralist livelihood.

1.3.

SIGNIFICANCE AND SCOPE OF THE STUDY

This study is considered important as it will come up with relevant findings and
information that will be used for future policy decision and development interventions.
Most importantly, the study will provide relevant information about the socio-economic
impact of drought on pastoralist in Denan Woreda. Likewise, the study is demanded by the
identification of key coping and adaptive strategies, which might be supported, modified or
enhanced to develop long-term drought management systems.
1.4.

OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

1.4.1. GENERAL OBJECTIVE


The general objective of the research is to assess the impact of drought on pastoralists
livelihood, their previous and current coping strategies in Denan district, Shabele zone,
Somali Regional State, Ethiopia

The main objective of the research is to draw the impacts of drought on the livelihood
of pastoralists, their traditional strategies to cope

1.4.2. SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES


To explore the occurrence and extent of drought among pastoralists in Denan the
district of Shabele Zone

To draw the socioeconomic impacts of drought on pastoralist livelihood in Denan the


district
To explore pastoralists previous and current coping mechanism from the impact of
to enable them to withstand the impact of the drought.
1.5.

RESEARCH QUESTIONS

The researchable questions that are critical to this research are as follows
1. How often and to what extent does drought occur in Denan district?
2. What is are the main impacts of drought on pastoralists socioeconomic in
Denanlivelihood?
3.
4. How do pastoralist cope and address the impacts of drough previously and nowt?
Compare and contrast previous and current coping strategies?
5.

Remark! Choose the word either socioeconomic or livelihood. Then be consistent!


2.
2.1.

LITERATURE REVIEW
What is Drought

Drought is an outcome of the reduction of precipitation received over an extended temporal


scope, which can be one season or more (Wilhite & Glantz, 1985; Wilhite & Svoboda, 2000).
High temperatures, high winds and low relative humidity can aggravate severity of drought
(Wilhite, 1999). Drought is part of the normal cycle of life in arid and semi-arid areas,
where rainfall is low at the best of times and abnormally low every few years. Pastoralist
livelihoods are sensitively attuned to conditions of low and variable rainfall. Droughts
cannot be accurately predicted, but they are expected and pastoralist systems are well
adapted to drought cycles (Stephen 2006).
6

Droughts occur practically on all agro-ecological zones of the world and more than one half
of the globe is prone to drought each year (Kogan, 1997; Wilhite, 2000). Moreover, in-asmuch as it occurs in all climatic zones, its occurrence and impacts vary significantly from
region to region (Hisdal & Tallaksen, 2000). Notably, drought is more outstanding when it
occurs in potentially high and medium rainfall areas, while arid and semi arid regions of the
world are most vulnerable (Hisdal & Tallaksen, 2000). Drought is largely considered to be a
natural event. However, as argued by Wilhite (2000), its risks for any given region are a product
of both the regions exposure and the vulnerability of societies to the drought event. Wilhite and
Svoboda (2000) further expounded that, exposure to drought varies spatially and there is
absolutely nothing that can be done to alter its occurrence, while vulnerability is determined by
social, economic and cultural factors. These factors include population growth, demographic
characteristics, technology, policy, social behaviour, land use patterns, water use, economic
development, diversity of economic base and cultural composition
2.2.

What is the Impact of drought

Human activities are linked to meteorological, hydrological, agricultural and socioeconomic droughts highlighting the vital relationships that exist between human society,
environment and water. Therefore, any disruptions to hydrological systems, such as those
caused by drought, create a significant risk to human society and their social and economic
systems (Wilhite et al, 2007). Risk can be defined as the probability of harmful
consequences, or expected losses resulting from interactions between natural hazards and
vulnerable conditions. Thus, the magnitude and severity of drought impacts on social and
economic systems of any particular human society will be dependent on the underlying
vulnerability of the human population and particular region exposed to the event, as well as
the underlying climate and weather patterns that determine the frequency and severity of
the event (Wilhite et al, 2007).
Natural and human-made disasters have been experienced throughout history. In the last
three decades, however, both the frequency of their occurrence and the losses associated
with them has increased. The incidence and magnitude of disasters today is widely
recognized as posing a serious threat to the survival, dignity and livelihoods of countless
7

individuals, particularly the poor (Sara, 2009).

2.2.1 Pastoralist Livelihood Impact of drought


For one to understand how drought affects pastoral communities, it is crucial to
understand how their livelihood is affected by drought. Direct impacts of drought on
pastoral communities livelihood are the depletion of water resources and reduction of
vegetation quality and quantity. Constrained availability of water resources and pasture
due to drought that adversely affect livestock body and health conditions, milk production
and eventually livelihood security for pastoral communities, which principally depend on
livestock and livestock products (Sommer, 1998).
Although droughts affect livelihoods in rural areas most directly and immediately, since
livestock and crop production depend directly on rainfall, traders and service providers
whose business depends on rural incomes are also negatively affected, as they face declining
demand for their goods and services. Retail stores in rural settlements may loss income,
and several stores may force to get closed. Most businesses normally struggle to find
enough customers. Most of pastoralists who were buying food staff from them reduce the
quantity and the items of the food commodities purchased. Moreover, milk traders
complained declining supply during drought period, this would not only affect pastoralists
who are in this case milk suppliers but also milk exporters and milk buyers. This indirect
impact of drought on livelihoods has been labeled derived destitution (Sen 1981), and it
has a leveling effect on most people in the drought-affected area. Drought makes people on
equal footing in term of poverty due to the food crisis remarked from household including
traders who are indirectly impacted by the drought, for instance by rationing food
consumption and cutting back on non-essential spending and there is not enough buying
power in those parts of the economy that are not reliant on rain. One group who suffered
the consequences of this coping behavior in 2004 were traders who sell cloth to pastoralists
(Stephen 2006)
Evidence indicates drought accompanied by environmental degradation is accelerating and
8

undermining the current and future livelihoods and food security throughout Somali
region of Ethiopia. Uncontrolled destruction of the environment is severely affecting all
productive areas, not only pastoral rangelands, but also productive agricultural lands. In
pastoral rangelands, environmental degradation is resulting from a number of factors,
including excessive tree clearing for charcoal production and exportation, lack of
rangeland management, increased sedentarization due to proliferation of berkeds, and one
of the worst prolonged droughts in recent times. In agricultural productive areas, it is due
to uncontrolled and accelerated tree clearing and charcoal production, invasion of foreign
weeds and noxious plants, encroachment of sand dunes, and increasing trends of erratic
and below normal rainfall (FSAU 2004).
2.2.2 Effect of drought on Access to water in Somali Region
Access to water is always a major livelihood concern in lowland areas, for human
consumption (drinking, cooking, washing), livestock consumption (watering animals), and
crop production. Perhaps because rainfall in Somali Region is very low (ranging from over
600mm in the north to under 300mm in the south) and variable, several alternative sources
of water are available, including rivers, ponds, boreholes, shallow and deep wells,
rainwater harvesting, berkad communal and private taps, and water tankers. Different
parts of the region can be characterized as having distinct water systems, which differ
for humans and animals, and also alter significantly between the rainy and dry seasons.
These water systems are best defined by how people access water during the dry season,
when water is scarce.In the most arid parts of Somali Region, notably in Warder Zone to
the east, people and animals are almost totally dependent on constructed berkad for their
water in the dry season. Most households in almost half of the region are in one way or
another birka-dependent. This dependence is especially acute during the dry season. During
the rainy season, more diversified sources of water are available, including ponds and
shallow wells that accumulate rainwater, but dry up when the rains end. These water
sources are preferred not only for their convenience, but also because they are free,
whereas access to berkad costs money (Stephen 2006)

2.2.3 Social Impacts of Drought


During drought times, water level goes down and springs and streams decrease
significantly and some even dry up. In addition to failure in crop production, sanitation will
loose attention under the prevalence of drought conditions. This is so because of personal
hygiene such as washing of body, cloth, etc. require the availability and supply of water.
The prevalence of drought forces people to look for opportunities for survival including
abandoning their home and migrating to camps where they see some temporary help to
rescue their life. Those who are unable to move or cope up with the drought are 24 doomed
to perish. As drought persists human and livestock death toll increases compounded by
poor sanitation and deteriorating natural environment. On the other hand drought shock
increases the prevalence of diarrhea among the children. According to the statistics of the
Regional Health Bureau, 7,122 cases of diarrhoea in children were reported in 2003
(drought year) in the whole region, an increase of 17 percent compared with normal levels.
The increase was attributed to water scarcity

In many parts of the region, the effects of drought on ecosystems have begun to
compromise the traditional livelihoods and lifestyles of indigenous peoples who depend on
them. The increased drought risks to agriculture, property, infrastructure, and ecosystems
are likely to have negative effects on health by impeding access to safe water sources and
sufficient food (FAO, 2007).
1.3 Concepts of vulnerability
The IPCC (2007b) defines the concept of vulnerability as the degree to which a system is
susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of drought. Vulnerability is a function
of the character and magnitude, of drought to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and
its adaptive capacity (WCDP, 2004; IPCC, 2007b cited in Mirjam, 2008) The WCDP report,
The Regional Impacts of drought: An Assessment of Vulnerability (Watsonet al, 1998),
argues that the vulnerability of a region depends to a great extent on its wealth, and that
poverty limits adaptive capabilities. According to the Second Assessment Report,
10

vulnerability depends on the level of economic development and institutions. The report
argues that socio-economic systems typically are more vulnerable in developing countries
where economic and institutional circumstances are less favorable (Watson et al., 1996:
24)

2.3.1 Socio-economic Approach of Vulnerability


The

socio-economic

vulnerability

assessment

approach

mainly

focuses

on

the

socioeconomic and political status of individuals or social groups (Adger, 1999; Fssel,
2007). Individuals in a community often vary in terms education, gender, wealth, health
status, access to credit, access to information and technology, formal and informal (social)
capital, political power, and so on. These variations are responsible for the variations in
vulnerability levels. In this case, vulnerability is considered to be a starting point or a state
(i.e., a variable describing the internal state of a system) that exists within a system before
it encounters a hazard event (Allen, 2003; Kelly and Adger, 2000).

2.3.2 other vulnerability Approaches


Biophysical approach assesses the level of damage that a given environmental stress causes
on both social and biological systems. For instance, the monetary impact of drought on
agriculture can be measured by modeling the relationships between extent of drought and
farm income (Mendelsohn, et al., 1994; Polsky and Esterling, 2001; Sanghi, et al., 1998).
Integrated assessment approach combines both socioeconomic and biophysical approaches
to determine vulnerability. The hazard-of-place model (Cutter et al., 2000) is a good
example of this approach, in which both biophysical and socioeconomic factors are
systematically combined to determine vulnerability. The vulnerability mapping approach
(OBrien et al., 2004) is the other related example, in which both socio-economic and
biophysical factors are combined to indicate the level of vulnerability through mapping.

11

2.4 Drought management strategy


Drought management is a process of reducing and managing the impact of drought in
order to prevent it turning into a famine (Carney, 1998). Management is generally
defined as the coordination of organized effort to attain specific goals or objectives. In
emergency or disaster management, the term means an organized effort to mitigate
against, prepare for, respond to, and recover from disaster. Drought management has four
main elements, namely; Preparedness, Mitigation, Relief and Reconstruction.
Preparedness - This concept implies planning how to respond in case a drought occurs
and working to increase resources available to respond effectively. The rationale behind
this arrangement is to save lives and minimize damage by preparing people to respond
appropriately when a drought is imminent.
Mitigation These are activities, which eliminate or reduce the chances of occurrence or
effects of a drought. This approach is based on the idea that much can be done to prevent
droughts from happening or reduce their impact. 35 Relief - The concept applies to
activities that occur during and immediately following a drought. Through proper
response, emergency assistance to victims of the drought is, provided.
Reconstruction This continues until all systems return to or are near normal. Short-term
recovery returns vital life support systems to minimum operating standards. Long-term
recovery may go on for years until the entire drought affected area is completely restored.

2.5 Coping Mechanisms to Drought Impacts


There is a rich set of local/indigenous strategies to deal with multiple threats, variability
and environmental change, but they are not sufficient for reducing the impacts of drought.
12

People normally rely on a number of different activities for food and income in addition to,
for example, agriculture. This diversification is common for most groups, whether
smallholder farmers, pastoralists, rural or urban workers or unemployed slum dwellers. In
particular, during droughts or floods when farming fails, farmers engage in a diversity of
activities. While sale of poultry and livestock, informal trade and casual employment are
coping strategies common to most areas of eastern Africa, the exact combination of
activities in which a household engages depends both on the options available locally and
the labor availability, education, skills, and access to capital of the household or individuals
within it. In addition to resource access, strong local links between and within social groups
and local knowledge of environmental processes are important for coping and adapting
(Eriksen et al., 2008).
According to FAO ITPDM, The most common coping strategies of pastoral livelihoods in
response to drought are long distance movement of livestock including crossing of
boundaries to other regions, opening of dry season grazing areas, importation of feed and
increased selling of livestock, as well as search for alternative sources of food and cash. As a
first response dry season grazing reserves are opened for grazing and plans for improved
use of grazing and water are established:

When grazing reserves are exhausted longer distances are covered by a few male
herders with selected livestock in search of forage and water. During the 1995-97
drought in Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda it was observed that the
distances trekked to livestock water sources were almost tripled (from 6 km to 16
km) and distances trekked for grazing increased from 5-20 km.

Livestock as well as people move to water spots and this includes also crossing of
boundaries to other regions.

Feed and fodder is imported from outside areas

Search for plants that can catch or hoard water

13

The most common strategies in response to drought induced reduced access to food and
markets are:

Selling of animals and purchase of food items (cereals) to preserve as


emergency food and to eat at once.

Slaughtering of few animals to preserve as dried meat.

Rationing of food and water is practiced.

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

Effect
Impact:
-Loss of livestock
-Malnutrition
and failure
andofchild
crops
mortality
-Shortage of -Conflict
water
over resource that may ca
- Limited pasture
-Closure
and of
brose
schools

d Early warning
information
-Low
Preparedness
of contingency - Low capacity to withstand hazard
able intervention
-Vulnerability

Drought

NGOs and GOs


Intervention

14

Figure 1: Conceptual frame work

3.
3.1.

MATERIALS AND METHODS


DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA

The research will be undertaken in DenanWoreda, which is located 73km north of Gode.
GPS reading taken has shown the geographic coordinate (UTM) of 38 33375E and 07
2043N and average elevation 434 m.a.s.l. Denan Woredais one of the 9 Woredas in
Shebelleadministrative Zone of Somali Regional state namely: Gode, Denan, Adadlay,
Ferfer, Mustahil, Kelafo, Berano,El-weyne and East-Imay. The Woreda is located in the
southern part of the region and obviously bordered by Korahei zone in the East, Nogob
Zone in the North and Gode in the South, with the estimated distance of 1160 KM from
Addis Ababa, and 538 fromJigjiga.
According to the CSA report of the 2007, the zone has a total population of 353,551 with
105,000 km2 land mass of which 95% is grazing land and the remaining 5% is of arable
land both irrigated and rain fed. This arable land is equivalent to 5,250 km2 and only 20%
of the arable land is under cultivation (SC-UK 2001). Denan district is divided into 5
development centers which are sub-divided in to 12 sub-centers, administrations (KA).
According to the Woreda officials, the total current woreda populationis 68,394 of which
55.6% and 44.4% are male and female respectively.
In Denan woreda, seasonal hand dug wells provide fairly dependable water sources but
salinity of the water gets deteriorated during dry season. There is also limited access to
sanitation facilities, which exposes the population to deadly water borne-diseases. The
recurrent water crises do critically affect children and women as the most vulnerable
members of the community. Livestock milk production has significantly decreased due to
poor rainfall. Besides being the main dietary source for pastoral children, milk is the major
source of household income and low yield seriously undermines the household purchasing
power. During crises, families are forced to sell most of the milk to cover the overall food
requirements. This contributes to a fast deterioration of the children nutritional status.
15

Women in pastoral communities are equally affected by droughts, as they are obliged to
cover long distances to fetch water. This is harmful to both their productivity and health.
The physical stress of the journey itself and the time pressure for these activities increases
the burden of women to properly care for their children and to engage in income
generating or other productive household activities. Children and women become
separated from part of their family during dry season when the males move from place to
place in search of pasture and water for their livestock. During droughts, women can face
more severe consequences due to inadequate access to or control over livelihood resources
as well as limited decision-making power, formal education, mobility or livelihood options.
3.1.1 Climate
Climatically, the research area belongs to the semi arid zone. The total annual rainfall
ranges from as low as below 250 to 300 mm or a little higher with a bimodal rainfall
pattern and erratic distribution. As per the records at the Jijiga Weather Station, the long
term (> 30 years; 1974-2005) average annual rainfall is 275 mm while the monthly mean and
maximum temperatures for the same period 27.3 and 29.0oC, respectively. There are four main
seasons: Dayr (wet season) and Jilaal (dry season), Gu (Wet season) and Haga (Dry season.
Dayr prolongs from Mid October to late December where as The Jilaal starts from January
to April. One the other hand, Gu normally starts on April to June while Jaga starts on July
to September. Both rains are equally vital for cultivation and maturation of crops but
interchangeably one might be somewhat heavier than the other one. Drought is a recurring
phenomenon in the two dry seasons however, the dry season are prolonging than usual and
sometime causing total rainfall failure. Recurring drought and its related human and
livestock catastrophe that frequently took place generally in Ethiopia and particularly in
Somali region in the last couple of years (SCUK Livelihood report 2005)

16

3.1.2 Farming system


Livestock keeping and Crop production are the main source of livelihood pattern in the
area.

Majority of the population living in Denan depend on livestock and livestock

products. Moreover, cereal products are grown in the area, which is considered crucial in
generating income.
3.1.2.1 Crop production
Denan dwellers are both pastoralists and agro-pastoralists that keep livestock and cultivate
crops. The main crops are cultivated during the rainy season of Dayr and Gu. Sorghum
and maize are the main cereal crops grow in Denan. The most important crops for
consumption are planted in April and households begin consuming green harvest in late
June and harvests in early august. The main crops cultivated during the Dayr rains are of a
short maturing variety, which include wheat, barley, Sorghum and to a lesser extent maize.
3.1.2.2 Livestock production
Denan district is a home for huge livestock and livestock owners. The main livestock reared
in the area are cattle, camels and shoats. In a normal year, pasture is regenerated with each
set of rains to make livestock feed available. This regeneration takes place within two weeks
of the onset of the rain. Thus, pasture is normally available from April - July and OctoberDecember. Crop residues supplement this during the two key periods (Jilaal and Hagaa).
The first comes from the stalks of the short maturing maize crop (available from AugustSeptember) and is given primarily to the milking cows and sheep. The second comes from
the crop residues from the second harvest. This is in two forms: (1) stocks, which are stored
as fodder during harvesting of main crops and (2) livestock are allowed to graze on what is
remained from the field after harvesting takes place. March is the most difficult month in
relation to pasture and fodder availability. During below normal year livestock migrate to
other grazing area (Mohamed 2010).
In below normal year of rainfall, those households with livestock will move to the closest
grazing areas based on clan preferences. Thus, Majority of the population residing in
17

Denan area migrates to the Nogob, Sibi, and Hoswayne Valleys for pasture and water.
These pastoralists normally compete resources with the hosting pastoralists residing in the
migrated area. In more severe situations, movement targets to the Southeast and across the
border into Somalia. Generally, the young and lactating animals do remain behind until the
situation requires moving with them (OWDA 2011).

3.2

DATA TYPES, SOURCES AND METHOD OF COLLECTION

3.2.1. DATA TYPE AND SOURCES


Date will be collected using both the primary and secondary method of data collection
sources. Both Primary and Secondary data will also have both qualitative and quantitative
data. Focus group discussions, key informant interviews and household survey will be
employed to get views of individuals, key community informants and households about how
drought has impacted on their socioeconomic situations, and their coping and adaptation
strategies.
Finally, key Woreda government officials in relevant government departments and offices
including Disaster preparedness and prevention Office, Livestock, Crop and Rural
Development, health, and education will be interviewed as key informants to obtain data on
implications of drought to pastoralists.
3.2.2. METHOD OF COLLECTION
In undertaking this research, both the secondary and primary data will be collected from
different sources. The relevant data from secondary sources will be gathered through
reviewing document available in concerned offices at regional, Zonal, Woreda and Keble
administration level. Published and unpublished materials, journals, archives, reports etc.
the primary data will be collected through Focus group discussion (FGD) and key
informants interview usingsemi-structured questionnaires and formal survey using
structured/ closed questioner. In collecting this information, the researcher will first expect
18

to undertakeinvestigation survey and personal observation, basically to take adjustments


for the excursion of methods and to in rich the overall data.
3.2.

SAMPLING PROCEDURE AND SAMPLE SIZE

Selection of the study site is crucially identified through consultation with the key staff in
the Organization for Welfare and Development in Action and expert from the same field.
This study will purposively target three villages from the nine villages located out of the
Denan town. This is due to homogenous nature of the population in the study site. On the
other hand one out of the three villages in the town will selected. Multi-stage sampling
method will be used in selecting villages and respondent. The purpose of choosing this
method is to avoid bias to help the study ensure selection of representative. Households
studied will be randomly selected. Following are processes
Sampling stage one: One out of the three villages located in the town will be
selected by giving numbers 1-3. Only one will be picked from the three.
Three out of the nine villages out of the town will be purposively.
Sampling stage two: All the households in the selected three Villages plus the
other one Villagefrom the town will be listed in sample form. Each household
will be given number and written in piece of paper and then folded and put
in basket to thoroughly shake. Then 15 households will be selected from each
Village to have a total of 60 HH will be drawn for the study.
Comment:
1. I think drought affects the rural communities directly. Therefore, I suggest to avoid the
village in the city.
2. I suggest proportional sampling technique and distribute the sample households in all nine
villages as all of them are very close to each other. For example if the total house hold to
be consulted are 90, then from each village you will interview 10 household.
3. Use the following formula for determining the sample households. (Cochran, 1977).

19

no
4.

z pq
d2

5. Where:
6.

no
no 1
1
N

no = the desired sample size when the population is greater than 10,000.
n = number of samples size when population is less than 10,000.

7. Z = 95% confidence limit i.e.1.96.


8. P = 0.1(proportion of the population to be included in the sample i.e. 10%).
9. q = 1 - 0.1 i.e. (0.9).
10. N = Total number of population.
11. d = margin of error or degree of accuracy desired (0.05).
(
3.2.1 Sampling key informants and focus group discussion participants
Key informants and focus group discussion participantswill be the main semi-structure
interviews held. The focus group number will be 6-10 participants. Key informants will be
people perceived to have particular insight or opinions about the topic under study. In my
study, the main criteria for selecting the key informants will be based on their extensive
knowledge and experience of area with special emphasis on indigenous knowledge of the
cultural practice related to drought and pastoralists coping mechanism. Experience of the
participants has to reflect the current and the past knowledge and experience. Moreover,
their presence in the study site is important. Composition of both focus group discussion
and key informants are also critical. Moreover, data regarding to the current socioeconomic challenges (resource endowments) and existing coping strategies will be gathered
through field observation

3.4. METHOD OF DATA ANALYSIS


Qualitative analysis will be used as an ongoing process that will be conducted at all level
right from the field. During the data collection, field notes will be considered important
tool. After the date is collected, the field notes will be prepared and organized into
categories. Then development of coding the responses and giving numbers to the categories
20

will be the second step followed by data presentation in a narrative form.


Likewise, Questionnaire will be developed to collect data quantitatively. The data collected
from the questionnaires will be coded and entered into an excel spreadsheet after which
analysis will done using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). Quantitative
data will then be subjected to descriptive statistics after which the results including
demographic information, household characteristics, and coping and adaptation strategies
used by the respondents will be summarized in tabular and graphical forms. Rainfall data
for the study area will be graphically presented as well.

3.5 RESEARCH EXPECT OUTCOME


This research will shade light on the socio-economic impact of drought on pastoralist in
Denan district and their coping strategies but will thoroughly compare and contrast the
previous and the current coping mechanism. What are the key factors contributing the
change. The study will also explore the effect of government and NGOs response on the
pastoralists coping mechanism. There are different researches and studies writtenon the
topic at hand however, this research will be different when it comes to the issue of
comparing and contrasting the previous ad current coping mechanism of the pastoral
community. The Socioeconomic effect of drought will be highly researched and the policy
makers see into and make decisions.

21

4. W
Activities

O
R

Date 2013-2014
July

Aug

Sep

K
Oct

Selection of the study


area
Selection of the kebeles
Proposal preparation and
Literature review
Proposal defense
Primary data collection
of the research settlement
survey
Data

processing

and

statistical analysis
Thesis research write up
Thesis

submission

feedback
Thesis submission and
defense
PLAN AND BUDGET SCHEDULE
4.1.

WORK PLAN

Table 1: Work Plan Schedule

22

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

4.2.

RESEARCH BUDGET AND LOGISTICS

Table 2: Stationary costs

S/N

Description

Unit

Quantity

Unit

price Total

(birr)

(birr)

Pen

No.

2boxes

100.00

Clipboard

No.

15

45.00

Box-file

No.

30

30.00

File with fastener

No.

32.00

Pencil/puncher/Scotch No.

14/1/1

0.5/40/20

67.00

tape
8

Marker

No.

24.00

RW

Pkt.

1box

150

150.00

10

Flash disk

No.

1for

4 450

450.00

GB
11

Note book

12

Laser

Jet

No.

12

60.00

cartridge No.

1500.00

1500.00

100.00

600.00

(Toner)
13

Printer paper

Ream 6
23

Sub total

3058

cost

Table 3: Transport and per diem expenses

No

Person

No of

Duratio

Payment per Total

day

payment

Persons
(Days)
1

Student

(field

work

and 1

45

150.00

6750.00

travel to kebeles)

Enumerator

30

120.00

10800.00

Student ticket go and back

4015

Fuel for Adadlay to kebeles

10

13000

Driver

15

150.00

2,250.00

Sub total

36,815

Table 4: Miscellaneous expenses

No

Items or service required

Price (birr)

Photo copy service and telephone

500.00

Thesis binding

300.00
24

Sub total

800.00

Table 5: Total budget summary of the study

No

Description

Total Cost (Birr)

Logistics and Stationery

3,058.00

Per diem and transportation expense

36,815

Miscellaneous

800.00

Grand Total

40,873

REFERENCE:
Adger, W.N. et al.(2003). Adaptation to drought in developing world. Nairobi Kenya. Progress in
Development Studies, 3(3), 179
Adgolign, T.B. (2006) Theoretical and Practical Considerations for the Selection of Water
Harvesting Techniques: Case Study of Sasiga District of Oromiya, Ethiopia. UDESCO-IHE
Institute for Water Education
Bewket W. (2003) Towards integrated watershed management in highland Ethiopia: the Chemoga
watershed case study

25

Birch, I., and H. A. O. Shuria. 2001. Perspectives on pastoral development lll: A casebook from
Ethiopia and Kenya. Oxfam GB.
Coppock, D. L. 2005. The Borella plateau of southern Ethiopia; SYllthesis of pastoral research,
developmellt alld challge, /980-9J. Addis Ababa: International Livestock Center for Africa
(ILCA)
Defferew Kebebe. 2011.

The Impact of Drought on Livelihoods, Vulnerability and Coping

Mechanisms: the Case of North Shoa Zone, Oromiya at Addis Ababa University
Fraser, E.D.G. (2007). Travelling in antique lands: using past famines to develop an
Adaptability/resilience framework to identify food systems vulnerable to climate change.
Climatic Change, 83(4), 495-514. Addis Ababa Ethiopia
Goldstone, J.92007). Flash Points and Tipping Points: Security Implications of Global Population
Changes, 2005-2025. Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington, DC, 26.
Hisdal, H. & Tallaksen, L.M. (2000) Assessment of the regional impacts of Drought in Europe. Drought
Event Definition: Technical Report No 6.
Kashaye B., Berhanu G., Medhin, S.E., and. Mohamed M.A. 1998. Development needs of pastoral
production systems in Ethiopia: Lessons learnt from ILRIs research in some pastoral areas
of Ethiopia. Addis Ababa: ILRI
Oxfam, 2002. Evaluation Report of the Drought Mitigation Programme in Somali region, October
1999-March 2001. Nairobi: Acacia Consultants.
Sara (2009). Mitigating Drought: Policy Impact Evaluation A Case of Tigray Region, Ethiopia.
Sommer,

F.

(1998)

Pastoralism,

drought

early

warning

and

response.Available:

http://www.odi.org.uk/pdn/drought/sommer.pdf (Accessed in July, 2011)


Stephen Devereux of Institute of Development Studies 2006. Vulnerable Livelihoods in Somali
Region, Ethiopia. at the University Sussex Brighton BN1 9RE UK
Salayman, A. 2011. Enhanced Pastoralist Schooling Initiative (EPSI). OWDA. Jigjiga of Somali
Region, Ethiopia
Toulmin, C. (1983) Herders and farmers or farmer-herders and herder-farmers, ODI Pastoral
Development Network Paper 15d, ODI, London.
26

Wilhite, D.A (1997) Improving drought management in the West: The Role of Mitigation and
Preparedness, National drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska, Lincoln.
Wilhite, D. A. (2002) Drought preparedness in the sub-Saharan Africa context. Journal of
Contingency and Crisis Management.
Wilhite D.A. & Glantz, M.H., (1985) Understanding the drought phenomenon: The role of definition.
Water International.

APPENDIX 1: APPROVAL SHEET


BAHIR DAR UNIVERSITY
COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
GRADUATE PROGRAM
THESIS PROPOSAL APPROVAL SHEET
Submitted by:
Name of the student
Mohamed Abdikadir Ahmed
__________________

Signature
____________________

Approved by:
1. Name of Major Advisor Signature
Dr Belayneh Ayele(PhD)
___________________
_______________________________
2. Name of Co-Advisor
Mr Kindie Gebeyehu

Date

Signature
___________________

3. Name of Chairman, DGC

Signature
27

Date

Date
_________________
Date

_____________________

_________________ ____________

4. Name of Coord, Graduate Program

Signature

______________________

________________

____________

28

Date