Flood risk management for La Mojana

Flood risk management for La Mojana

Erik Mosselman
Matthijs Kok
Hans Leenen
Meindert Van

1206824-000

Deltares, 2012

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Contents
1 Introduction
1.1 Background
1.2 Objectives
1.3 Project team
1.4 Activities

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2 Review of reports by Universidad Nacional de Colombia

2.1 General considerations
2.2 Hydrology
2.2.1 Data, methodology and results
2.2.2 Comments and observations
2.2.3 Recommendations
2.3 Hydraulic modelling
2.4 Geo-engineering and dike stability
2.5 Risk analysis

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3 Recommendations from a Dutch perspective

3.1 Risk-based approach
3.2 Integrated approaches
3.2.1 Consideration of the complete hydrodynamic system
3.2.2 Inclusion of fluvial morphodynamics
3.2.3 Integrated management approach on basin scale
3.3 Governance
3.4 Hydraulic engineering sector

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4 Recommendations for short-term actions

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5 Conclusions and recommendations

5.1 Conclusions
5.2 Recommendations
5.3 Proposed actions
5.4 Translation of proposed actions into potential projects

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6 References

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1 Introduction
1.1

Background
La Mojana is a lowland area of 5600 km 2 in the provinces of Bolvar, Sucre, Crdoba and
Antioquia. As an inner delta of the Ro Cauca, it has a topography that for about half of its
area consists of a network of lakes, swamps and canals. The area is sparsely populated:
440,000 inhabitants. Homesteads and towns are often located on ridges of abandoned
alluvial river beds. Poverty is considerable, also when compared to other areas of Colombia.
The area suffers from frequent flooding, apparently related to the occurrence of La Nia. The
original (pre-Hispanic) population intervened already in the hydrology of the area. More
recently dikes have been constructed along the rivers, with varying degrees of success.
La Mojana was hit hard in 2010 when extensive flooding occurred all over the country. This
was the rationale for the Government of Colombia to designate La Mojana as one of the
priority areas to improve the safety against flooding. The government announced an
extensive investment programme, focusing on the improvement of water safety, the
construction of infrastructure, the promotion of cattle farming, reforestation and socioeconomic development.
The Dutch have a long-standing history and expertise in water management and safety
against flooding, both in the Netherlands and abroad, leading to the adoption of the Dutch
words dique and plder into the Spanish language. One of the most recent examples is
that Dutch engineers were invited to review flood risk management practices in the area of
New Orleans (USA) after the Katrina flood disaster in 2005.
It is against this background that the President of Colombia requested the Netherlands to
assist in looking for Dutch proof solutions to water safety in a number of areas in Colombia,
including La Mojana. In 2011 and 2012, Universidad Nacional de Colombia carried out a
study to define strategies for improving water safety and socio-economic conditions in La
Mojana. Deltares, in association with HKV and DHV, was commissioned to validate the water
safety parts of this study.

1.2

Objectives
The validation has the following objectives:
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2
3

To validate the Universidad Nacional studies by reviewing the technical and scientific
quality of the following reports: Universidad Nacional (2011, Summary), Universidad
Nacional (2011, Vol. 1), Universidad Nacional (2011, Vol. 2), Chapters 1-3 of
Universidad Nacional (2011, Vol. 3), Chapters 1-2 and Section 3.1 of Universidad
Nacional (2011, Vol. 4) and Section 5.3, Chapter 6 and Annexes 5.3 and 5.4 of
Universidad Nacional (2011, Vol. 5);
To express thoughts on the approach to flood risk management in the Universidad
Nacional reports from a Dutch perspective;
To provide recommendations for immediate actions on a short term.

Strictly speaking, the third objective is outside the scope of the assignment. The team
included it out of a firm conviction that such recommendations were needed urgently.

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The team was asked to answer the following questions in particular:

What is the quality of the hydraulic modelling?

What is the quality of the data used and the data analysis?
Do the conclusions follow logically from the analysis?
What is your opinion on the set of measures proposed?
What would be your recommendations for flood risk management in La Mojana, and do
these recommendations comply with the recommendations of the Universidad Nacional
de Colombia?
What are your thoughts about a Dutch proof approach to water safety in La Mojana?

An important aspect of flooding in La Mojana is pollution of inundated areas with mercury

originating from legal and illegal mining activities. This aspect has been addressed by
Universidad Nacional but was beyond the scope of the present assignment.

1.3

Project team
The project team had the following composition:

Erik Mosselman (Deltares): team leader and senior specialist in river engineering and
hydraulic modelling;
Matthijs Kok (HKV Consultants): senior expert in risk-based approaches to water safety;
Hans Leenen (DHV / Royal HaskoningDHV): senior expert in hydrology;
Meindert Van (Deltares): senior expert in geo-engineering and stability of flood
defences.

Juliana Lopez de la Cruz (Deltares) supported the team with the analysis of reports in the
Spanish language, as well as with her own expertise in risk analysis and stability of flood
defences.
The work was carried out in close collaboration with the Fondo de Adaptacin, the Royal
Dutch Embassy in Bogot and the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment.

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Figure 1.1. Validation mission team with Colombian counterparts and Royal Dutch Embassy representative.

1.4

Activities
The complete team visited Colombia from 23 to 27 June 2012, immediately after the
assignment on 19 June. The team members reviewed and discussed the reports. They visited
La Mojana by helicopter on 25 June, including a meeting with local citizens at Nech.
They discussed the studies with experts of Universidad Nacional in face-to-face meetings as
well as by telephone and Skype. A draft report and a draft presentation were delivered on 26
July.
Erik Mosselman and Hans Leenen carried out a second mission to Colombia from 30 July to
4 August 2012, together with Renske Peters, Director Water of the Dutch Ministry of
Infrastructure and Environment. The teams findings were tuned with the Fondo de
Adaptacin, the Dutch Ministry and the Royal Dutch Embassy. On August 1, the findings
were presented in the Presidential Palace to the Secretary-General of the Presidency of the
Republic, the Minister of Environment and Sustainable Development, the Minister of
Transport, and high officials of the government and the Fondo de Adaptacin.

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2 Review of reports by Universidad Nacional de Colombia

2.1

General considerations
The reports by Universidad Nacional show that the studies have been carried out by capable
experts with a thorough knowledge of the area. The studies are multidisciplinary: they
address technical, economical, environmental and social aspects. The reports represent a
rich source of information and are a good basis for any further study.
A key element in the solution of Universidad Nacional is a dike with weirs or spillways along
the left bank of the Ro Cauca, for controlled diversion of part of the water from the river
through water courses of La Mojana. The spillways would be opened one by one from
upstream to downstream, without possibilities to close them. Water courses forming the main
drainage arteries of La Mojana would be dredged and cleared to improve their discharge
conveyance capacity. The dike should be located sufficiently far from the river to safeguard it
from undermining by river bank erosion.
The team comprehends the universitys frustration that the dike has not been implemented
according to their original design and guidelines. This explains at least partly the failure of the
system in 2010.
The team would nonetheless like to raise the following general questions and comments:
1
2

2.2

Would it not be desirable to have gates to close the spillways in order to have more
control on the flooding of La Mojana?
The controlled flooding is intended for the range of discharges between exceedance
probabilities of 1/25 per year and 1/100 per year. No flooding occurs at lower
discharges. Flooding can no longer be controlled at higher discharges. The
corresponding water levels are not well known for the following reasons: (1) discharge
statistics are available from a relatively short period and are subject to interannual
variations; (2) the stage-discharge relation (providing the relation between water levels
and discharges) is in practice variable due to changes in river bedforms, vegetation,
etc.; (3) the Cauca river is reported to be subject to morphological change, affecting
water levels. How certain can we be that dike crests and spillways have the intended
elevations?
Which solutions are proposed for discharges higher than the one with an exceedance
probability of 1/100 per year? An inhabitant of La Mojana living 75 years would have a
probability of 53% to experience such conditions at least once in his or her life.

Hydrology
The hydrological parts of the Universidad Nacional studies have been reviewed on the basis
of Universidad Nacional (2011, Summary), Universidad Nacional (2011, Vol. 2), Universidad
Nacional (2011, Vol. 3), Universidad Nacional (2011, Vol. 4) and a discussion with Prof. Lilian
Posada.

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2.2.1

Data, methodology and results

Relevant data, methodology and results of the hydrological study are presented in Chapter
4.1 of Universidad Nacional (2011, Vol. 2) (Evaluacin dique marginal) and in Annex 1-2:
(Estudio Hidroclimatolgico, Regin de La Mojana). The team concludes that Universidad
Nacional has carried out a thorough study, using an impressive amount of available data of
river discharges and water levels, recalibration of discharge rating curves and different types
of meteorological data, such as precipitation, temperature and evaporation. All data have
been obtained from the Instituto de Hidrologa, Meteorologa y Estudios Ambientales
(IDEAM).
The study focuses on river discharge characteristics and water level characteristics in a
number of relevant hydrometric stations along the Ro Cauca near the La Mojana region.
Particular areas of interest in the study are trends, extreme events and the effects of El Nio
and La Nia. The study has used a number of standard statistical techniques to extract
important information from the available data.
The main results of the hydrological studies are summarized as follows:
1. The study shows a strong indication of a positive trend in river discharges;
2. Effects of El Nio and La Nia are clearly reflected in the monthly discharges of the Ro
Cauca;
3. The study has produced a table of estimated return periods for extreme river discharges
at a number of relevant hydrometric stations.
The team discussed hydrological issues with Prof. Lilian Posada of Universidad Nacional. It
finds no reason to question the data or the methodologies used by Universidad Nacional, nor
does it find any reason to doubt the results. In some respects the available data may be
elaborated further to enhance understanding of the water system and the frequencies of
extreme events to assist in developing a safety strategy from a technical point of view.
Existing legislation in Colombia does not provide tangible norms for dike construction, so it is
understandable that the studies by Universidad Nacional do not extrapolate the data further
than what is usually required by the authorities. The comments and observations below take
into account the Dutch approach to flood risk management.

2.2.2

Comments and observations

Probability of extreme events
Although Universidad Nacional provides estimates for return periods of river discharges, it is
unfortunate that Tables 9 and 10 of Universidad Nacional (2011, Vol. 2) stop at a return
period of 100 years. Prof. Lilian Posada explained the team that the existing legislation in
Colombia does not provide strict norms for dike safety, i.e. norms in terms of probability of
failure levels, but that Colombian authorities generally require a safety level with a return
period of 100 years (exceedance probability 1% per year). This safety level implies a 53%
probability of flooding during a lifetime of 75 years, a high probability that would be regarded
as a very low safety level in the Netherlands. The dikes along the main Dutch rivers are
designed at safety levels with return periods of 1250 years (exceedance probability 1/1250
per year), and along smaller rivers at safety levels with return periods of 300 years
(exceedance probability 1/300 per year).

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The probability of the 2010 flood discharge on the Ro Cauca can be estimated by
extrapolating the data further. This provides a better understanding of the flood that took
place in 2010. The team used data of the hydrometric station of La Coquera near Caucasia
(codigo 2624702 of the IDEAM data), which has a good data set of about 40 years. This
station can be considered representative for an evaluation of the probabilities of Ro Cauca
discharges that are relevant to La Mojana. Figure 2.1 shows how a statistical analysis of the
discharges at La Coquera provides an estimate of the return period of the 2010 discharge. A
Gumbel and Lognormal 3 probability distribution provide the best fit (based on KS-statistic
criteria). The discharge at La Coquera reached a value of nearly 6000 m 3/s (5958 m 3/s),
which corresponds to a return period of about 200-300 years when extrapolating the
probability curves.

Figure 2.1. La Coquera, return period estimates for discharge [m3/s] on Cauca river, including year 2010.

Local residents in Nech informed the team that the flood discharge of 2010 overtopped the
existing dikes. It is thus clear that the existing dike has a safety level below a 200 years return
period, most likely in the order of 100 years or even less. The next highest discharge of
4478 m3/s occurred back in 1973.
Within a period of 40 years of available data, a 1/200-per -year flood discharge has a
probability of occurrence of about 20%. The occurrence of the 2010 flood is hence not as
extreme as it may have seemed at first sight. The extreme events of measured daily
discharges are depicted in Figure 2.2.
Universidad Nacional design and water safety
The design by Universidad Nacional includes a number of spillways (diques fusibles,
vertederos) from the Ro Cauca to receiving channels in La Mojana. If we interpret this
design correctly, these spillways will overtop with a frequency of 1/25 per year. The dikes ave
been designed with some permeability to allow a certain continuous flow of water into La
Mojana. We have doubts about the logic of this design.

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It would mean that it is unavoidable that La Mojana will be inundated with an average
frequency of once every 25 years. The extent and depth of inundation will depend on the
magnitude of the flood on the Ro Cauca. For instance, a flood with the same magnitude as in
2010 would inundate large areas of La Mojana again. If the objective of the spillways and dike
permeability is to have some water flow through La Mojana at regular intervals and at the
same time to provide an acceptable safety level, it would make more sense to have a solid
dike construction with a number of gates or spillways that can be completely closed when the
river level becomes too high. In the Netherlands there are examples of this principle. This
principle is the opposite of the design by Universidad Nacional.
Potential effects of climate change
Probabilities of occurrence from the statistical analysis do not provide the complete picture.
The statistics may change in time, either by cyclic variations, for instance on a decadal scale
or a systematic trend of climate change. Universidad Nacional shows a strong indication that
discharges of the Ro Cauca are increasing. In addition, research by the Climate Prediction
Center (CPC) shows a long-term trend in the Oceanic Nio Index (ONI) with rising sea
temperatures. This results in a stronger influence of La Nia with higher precipitation in the
Colombian winter and higher extreme discharges in Ro Cauca. The extreme events in the
Rio Cauca discharges as depicted in Figure 2.2 have a strong correlation with the yearly
minima in the ONI as depicted in Figure 2.3 (correlation coefficient 0.43). We conclude that
the statistical characteristics of the Rio Cauca discharge are changing. This means that the
return period of the extreme event in 2010 may be shorter than follows from the record of
historic data. The actual probability of occurrence may be higher.

Figure 2.2. La Coquera, discharge extreme events per year.

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Figure 2.3. Minima of ONI per year.

2.2.3

Recommendations
1. A dike safety standard of 1/100 per year is relatively low. It is recommended to review this
standard by developing a spatial vision or plan and by carrying out a societal cost-benefit
analysis. The resulting standards should be documented in the form of a decreto and
become an integral part of Colombian water management practices, to be respected by
all regional and local authorities. Note that this dike safety standard is not intended as the
safety standard for all areas of La Mojana.
2. The team recommends further research into the changes of statistical characteristics of
discharges of the Ro Cauca, in view of the long-term changing of the El Nio and La
Nia phenomena. This will help in providing a better grip on a safety strategy for the
future.
3. The team recommends an integral hydrodynamic evaluation of the La Mojana inundations
by including the hydrodynamics of the Ro Magdalena, the upstream catchment of the Ro
Cauca and the impact of all infrastructural works along the rivers upstream.
4. The team recommends revising the design of the spillways (diques fusibles, vertederos)
into a design with a higher safety level than 1/25 per year, allowing water inflow at low
water levels of the Ro Cauca, but being able to prevent inflows at higher levels.

2.3

Hydraulic modelling
The hydraulic modelling in the Universidad Nacional studies has been reviewed on the basis
of Camacho & Lees (1999), Universidad Nacional (2011, Summary), Universidad Nacional
(2011, Vol. 1), Universidad Nacional (2011, Vol. 3) and a discussion with Prof. Luis Alejandro
Camacho.
The hydraulic modelling is based on the 1D Saint-Venant equations for rivers and water
courses and on a multilinear discrete lag-cascade (MDLC) model of channel routing

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(Camacho & Lees, 1999) for swamps and lakes. The major obstacle for translating model
results into inundation maps is the lack of digital elevation data.
One of the functions of models is that they integrate knowledge in a systematic way. The
hydraulic model of Universidad Nacional is without doubt the best available integrator of
present knowledge on the hydraulic functioning of La Mojana.
The Terms of Reference require only hydraulic modelling, but Universidad Nacional (2011,
Vol. 1) puts much emphasis on water quality modelling, which was not a part of the
assignment. The water quality modelling is not addressed in this validation.
Universidad Nacional (2011, Vol. 1) motivates the selection of the modelling approach from a
series of shortcomings in other models, such as MIKE11 and WASP. However, the report
does not present an objective comparison between the merits and demerits of the different
models, for instance by means of a multi-criteria analysis. A central argument in the
motivation is that the MDLC model, unlike MIKE11 (p.10) and WASP (p.11), can be calibrated
in an objective way. This refers to two aspects. The first aspect is that Universidad Nacional
has access to the code of MDLC, which allows implementation of the objective calibration
procedure of the university. The second aspect refers to the objective calibration procedure
itself, which seeks to offer a solution to the problem of equifinality, i.e. the problem that
different combinations of calibration parameter values can produce the same results.
It is essentially impossible to decide which combination of parameter values corresponds to
the real situation. The objective procedure of Universidad Nacional is based on searching an
optimum combination by carrying out thousands of computations in a monte-carlo approach
using GLUE. The resulting combination is not necessarily closest to the real values in the
field, but is reproducible, as other modellers would arrive at the same result by following this
procedure. This is why Universidad Nacional calls the method objective. Other models are
considered less suited for this approach because the corresponding longer computation times
complicate the execution of thousands of simulations for calibration. The team appreciates
the elegance of the method, but questions its usefulness, as it does not bring model results
closer to reality.
Another justification for using the MDLC model is that more sophisticated models require
more input, for which no data are available. An example is the input of wind data in MIKE21,
which are not available for La Mojana. The team would like to put forward, however, that not
all input options need to be used. MIKE21 computations could be carried out easily by
assuming all wind speeds to be equal to zero.
Data are available for a limited number of locations in La Mojana only. That is why data for
other locations are generated by interpolation, in order to use more data in the calibration of
the model. The team would not opt for this approach, because it essentially means that data
from one model are compared with data from another model.
Universidad Nacional (2011, Vol. 1) considers the hydraulic model suitable for the present
phase of pre-design and evaluation. The implication is that more sophisticated models might
become appropriate in next phases. Professor Camacho confirmed this view during the
discussion with the team.
Camacho & Lees (1999) state their MDLC model to be valid only where no hydraulic
structures or physical channel changes occur at the downstream location, or where no

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backwater effects due to tides, tributaries or critical control sections affect the hydraulic
response at the boundary.
Such conditions seem relevant, however, for La Mojana. Professor Camacho explained in the
discussion with the team that this shortcoming has now been solved by using backwater
results from HEC-RAS computations.
The model of Universidad Nacional can deal with the transport of fine suspended sediments.
It cannot deal, however, with the sediment transport that is relevant for fluvial
morphodynamics. It contains neither transport equations for sand and gravel nor the Exner
sediment balance equation for erosion and sedimentation.
Universidad Nacional (2011, Vol. 3) reviews the feasibility of conveying water discharges up
to 1200 m 3/s by a canal parallel to the road between San Marcos and Ach. The report
concludes that this canal is not feasible, because its low hydraulic gradient would necessitate
very large cross-sections. This is a plausible conclusion.
Manning coefficients are erroneously claimed to be dimensionless (adm on p.19).
Recommendations:
1. Use the existing model as long as no other models are available;
2. Collect digital elevation data to improve model results and to allow the preparation of
inundation maps on the basis of model results;
3. Develop a more physics-based mathematical model for next phases requiring more detail
and precision, provided that digital elevation data are available;
4. Develop an overall hydrodynamic mathematical model of the complete river system on a
catchment scale.
2.4

Geo-engineering and dike stability

The parts of the Universidad Nacional studies on geo-engineering and dike stability have
been reviewed on the basis of Universidad Nacional (2011, Summary), Universidad Nacional
(2011, Vol. 2) and a Skype conference on 3 July 2012. More background information was
probably available for the authors of those reports. The team is aware of not having all the
background information such as geological studies or laboratory testing reports. The
comments in this review hence should not be understood as undervaluing the quality of the
reports, but as remarks, questions and suggestions based on having this report information
only.
A dike built in La Mojana with material available and according to the specifications reported
will need inspection and maintenance, because it will deteriorate in time. Erosion processes
and vegetation will gradually change the outside profile and biologic and weathering
processes will gradually change the impermeability of the core. Steep inner or outer slopes up
to 1:1, which have been proposed in some designs, will erode relatively quickly (in a period of
some years). It is advised to have slopes not steeper than 1:3 (vertical:horizontal). Even then,
retrofitting each 1 or 2 decades could probably be necessary. Such foreseeable relatively
large-scale upgrading has to be considered in spatial planning and in rules for allowing
adjacent building.

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A detailed study of the soil layers (up to 20 metre depth) is necessary for a good design of the
dike. The structure and soil parameters of permeable and impermeable layers under the dike
should be known.
Current and future designs should incorporate safety factors to account for uncertainties in
soil parameters as well as variation in subsoil layer sequences and thicknesses in order to
assure the reliability of the dike structure. The permeable subsoil layers will have water
pressures that increase when the river level increases. This can cause backward erosion
(piping) and uplift stability failure of the dike. Therefore, the dike body should preferably be
constructed with a relatively wide base. If a wide base is not possible, the dike should have a
properly designed, built and maintained filter construction.
In the chapters on geotechnics, Universidad Nacional (2011, Vol. 2) studies the subsoil of the
dike base only for the first few metres of the first layer under the dike body. It is known from
geology that subsoil layers in areas with a meandering river vary considerably in location,
type and thickness. Clay, silt, sand, gravel and maybe peat layers can be expected to be
present under the dike. Note: In the Skype conference on July 3rd it was explained that the
subsoil information is not available at the current dike location because the dike has not been
built at the originally designed location. More information on the subsoil layers would have
been available at the original location.
Due to the lack of information on the subsoil layers where the dike was built, Universidad
Nacional (2011, Vol. 2) models the material under the dike only as one type of material called
Base Dique. This layer has a relatively high cohesion and high friction angle in Sections 1 to
3 and low values in Section 4. These properties match with clay or silt layers. In case of sand
and gravel layers, the cohesion would be close to zero and the friction angle around 30 to 35
degrees. Nonetheless, it is expected that sand and gravel layers will be present at varying
depths under the dike base. These layers will be much more permeable. The hydraulic head
in the river will also partly be present in these layers, its value depending on the permeability
of the layer and the hydraulic boundary conditions.
Due to an increasing hydraulic head in the dike subsoil sand and gravel layers during a flood
event, mechanisms such as backward erosion (also called piping) could occur and lead to
breaching of the dike. For the reported typical sizes of the dikes, backward erosion is
expected to be a dominant failure mechanism and should be studied in the assessments of
what happened during the 2010 flood. It should also be incorporated in the design
calculations for upgrading the dike. In addition, it is advised to study at which locations sand
boils due to backward erosion have been observed in the field during high water levels on the
river. During the teams field visit to La Mojana, two persons reported that sand boils had
been observed in this area during the high waters on the river, which confirms the possible
danger of this mechanism.
Considering the failure mechanism related to macro-stability, the hydraulic head in the sand
and gravel layers will have a significant effect too because it reduces the shear strength in the
layer just above the permeable layer. Increased pore pressures will reduce shear strength.
This is also a time dependent process. The longer the river water level is high, the larger the
area of shear strength reduction in and under the dike. Dominant slip planes can and often
will become partially horizontal with sliding along the interface between dike base and
underlying permeable layer. Bishop-type of circular slip plane calculations will not capture this
mechanism and predictions with a circular slip plane are unsafe compared with the partially
horizontal slip planes. Other design calculations are needed in case of these hydraulic heads

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in sand or gravel layers, i.e. uplift stability calculations (Van et al, 2005) or Spencer-type of
slip-plane calculations that include the time dependent shear strength reduction.
Finite-element computations could capture this mechanism, but are not advised, because
effective stresses around zero due to the uplift condition will often cause severe numerical
problems, making it difficult to obtain stable and reproducible numerical results.
Some detailed comments on the report by Universidad Nacional (2011, Vol. 2) are given
below.
Chapter 5 (from Section 5.3):

Page 134, Section 5.3.2: The crossing drains (alcantarillas) are constructed to regulate
the water in- and outflow through the dike. However, maintenance is necessary to
prevent vegetation to block the closing mechanism of this structure (foto 58). Such a
structure should also have been designed to create a measure against seepage and
concentrated leakage erosion due to settlement of the concrete structure or shrinkage
or erosion of the dike at the interface with the structure.
Page 137, Figure 76: How is the protection against erosion of the overflow dike
designed, since flow around the corners will increase erosion?
Page 139, Figure 77: How is backwards erosion under the dike prevented? How to
maintain this section? For example, is vegetation allowed or does the dike have to be
maintained free of vegetation?

Chapter 6:

In general, this chapter is not clearly structured in:

What is the original design?

What is the situation as built before the flood?

What is the assessment of the failures after the flood?

What is the cross-section of the new design (only comments on height are given,
but no cross-sections of the newly proposed design).
The breaches have been assessed in the field, but no calculations have been reported
in order to explain numerically what happened in 2010. This hindcasting is needed for a
good design for retrofitting or rebuilding.
Crossing structures in dikes (i.e. drains and other pipelines) and transitions of such a
structure to the dike soil body is a weak point in the dike that should be avoided.
Concentrated pipe leakage, that initiated one of the 2010 breaches, should be avoided.
If a crossing structure is nonetheless needed, this structure and its interface to the dike
body need careful design as well as a high level of inspection and quality control during
and after construction.
Results of the tests of Table 25 have not been reported in the report and have not be
reviewed. In general the quality of the field work (i.e. sample disturbance or drying) and
the testing laboratory (i.e. climate controlled) has a large influence on the results.
The soil base layers that are more than 2 metres below the dike have not been
modelled in the stability analyses in Figures 102, 104, 106 and 108. However, slip
planes could cross these layers (in Figure 104 and 108, the slip circle reaches this
boundary and deeper circles could be less safe). Also in these analyses, a sand or
gravel layer below the dike base layer could be present, which is in connection with the
river and will have a high water pressure that reduces shear strength. This should be
accounted for. Horizontal slip planes can be present with a significantly lower stability
factor. The phreatic line in the dike body is modelled as a line along the interface

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between dique actual and contradique proyectado. This is only the case if the
contradique proyectado is much more permeable than the dique actual.
This should also continue to be so during the design lifetime and may not be lost due to
vegetation or other blockage processes. In practice therefore a drain would be needed,
but better is to model a higher, more realistic phreatic line during design floods in the
contradique proyectado layer. This will reduce the calcutated stability factor. Maybe
also micro-stability of the soil layer should be checked if the phreatic line is so high that
water would seep out of the slope. Sections in Tramo 2 (page 172) have been designed
with steep slopes up to 1:1. These slopes are not stable and will erode in time. Only due
to cohesion in the material this design would be possible, but drying and wetting will
crack the material and reduce cohesion. Slopes are advised to be built not steeper than
1:3 (vertical:horizontal).
Recommendations:
1. It is necessary to add more geological information on the subsequent layers under the
dike base, with their types, parameters and thicknesses. Especially the permeable layers
should be known, because of their increased pressure head during a flood event.
2. Failure mechanisms due to piping or backward erosion should be checked explicitly in the
design and in the assessment of the dike, since these are expected to be dominant for
dike failure.
3. The influence of reduced shear strength due to partial-uplift effects as a result of an
increasing hydraulic head in the sand or gravel layer under the dike base should be
incorporated in the design and the assessment of the dike.
2.5

Risk analysis
The risk analysis in the Universidad Nacional studies has been reviewed on the basis of
Universidad Nacional (2011, Summary) and Universidad Nacional (2011, Vol. 5).
The university limited its study to the evaluation and mapping of vulnerability indices. No
complete risk analysis has been carried out, despite valuable elements for such an analysis.
The study does not consider any relation between hydraulic parameters and economic
damage. It does not address the issues of acceptable risk and the corresponding safety
standard.
This lead to the following main recommendation:
1. Carry out a proper risk analysis study in close interaction with the development of a
spatial vision or plan.

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3 Recommendations from a Dutch perspective

3.1

Risk-based approach
Flood risk management in the Dutch perspective is based on annual flood probabilities and
the consequences of a flood. The simplest way of presenting this approach is: the higher the
consequences, the lower the flood probability to be achieved (Figure 3.1). The concept of
acceptable risk is used in answering the question how much we should invest in risk
reduction and how much flood risk the society wants to accept (as is often done with any type
of risk!). A societal cost-benefit analysis (which includes all costs and all benefits) is needed
to assess the amount of investments, as well as the type of measures that can be justified
(protection works, river training, spatial planning, type of buildings in the flooded area, crisis
management, inspection during high river floods in order to repair works, etc).

Figure 3.1. Protection level in terms of an acceptable probability of flooding, as a result of evaluating the damage in
case of flooding (low in left panel, high in right panel) and investments to avoid this damage. A high potential
damage (right panel) implies an optimum at a high safety level, and hence a low acceptable probability of
flooding, i.e. a high acceptable return period.

The two most important potential consequences of a flood in the Netherlands are the
economic damage (which includes business losses) and loss of life. The hydraulic
parameters that determine the consequences of a flood are water depth, water velocity and
rate of water level rise. These hydraulic consequences are computed using a hydraulic model
for each possible flood event, called a flood scenario (which might be extreme or very
extreme). In case of flood defences, one or more breaches are schematized in the model. Of
course, an infinite number of flood scenarios is possible. To make the approach feasible in
practice, a representative sample of scenarios is selected. An example of a flood scenario for
a Dutch polder is given in Figure 3.2. For each flood scenario, the economic damage and the
loss of life can be determined (using land use damage and mortality functions). The next step
is to assess the corresponding flooding probabilities. These probabilities are determined by
the hydraulic load (water levels, waves), but also by the strength of the flood defences.
Often, also in the Netherlands, safety standards are expressed as exceedance probabilities
of design water levels. The strength of the flood defence is not explicitly included in the safety
standard. From a risk perspective it is to be preferred to include the strength of the flood
defence in the safety standard. A stronger dike has a lower probability of failure than a
relatively weak dike.

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Moreover, a flood defence may not only fail because of overtopping, but also by other failure
mechanisms, such as for example lack of stability and piping. However, a safety standard in
terms of an exceedance frequency per year of the design water level (or the design river
discharge) is more practical. The strength of the dike is subsequently designed in such a way
that the dike does not fail at water levels below the design water level, for all possible failure
mechanisms. If the water level is above the design water level, the dike might fail and breach.

Figure 3.2. Example of a computed flood scenario in the Netherlands (Texel island, worst-case flood). The colours
represent the water depth (dark blue is deeper than light blue, white represents no flooding, and yellow
represents sand dunes. The maximum water depth is 4 m.

Important questions in flood risk management are: What is the actual flood risk? Is that
acceptable? What societal values need to be protected? These questions are about
protecting the actual economic values and about economic development of the area. It is also
possible to differentiate with respect to land use: areas which have to be protected, areas
where flooding does not cause much damage, and nature areas where flooding is needed to
maintain the ecological values. Spatial planning is thus a key element in flood risk
management. The development of a spatial vision or plan is challenging, because it involves
local interests and it requires a national strategy.
La Mojana is a rural area, with people living in relatively small towns. The current flood risk
policy is to protect the area with a flood defence along one side of the Cauca river, with a
number of spillways for controlled flooding of the area. This strategy does make sense, but its
implementation can be concluded to be not fully successful yet.

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A more complete risk-based approach would involve a spatial vision or plan for the economic
development of the area, a map with possible water depths (for several flood scenarios) and
a plan of spatial differentiation of safety standards for different compartments of the area. This
leads to the following recommendations:

Develop a spatial vision or plan for the different uses of land in the area (agriculture,
nature, housing, etc). This is a matter of defining which level of protection (probability of
flooding) will be given to which areas within La Mojana and involves decisions on where
to build valuable properties and where to allow continued frequent flooding, for instance
for environmental reasons;
Perform a societal cost-benefit analysis with respect to investments to reduce flooding
risk, which is a combination of reducing the probability of flooding and reducing the
adverse consequences of flooding.
Invest in reducing the damage in case of flooding by organizing crisis management,
especially if the acceptable probability of flooding from the societal cost-benefit analysis
is high (on the order of 1/100 per year rather than 1/1000 per year).

It is furthermore recommended to address also the adverse consequences of flood protection

measures. The very presence of flood defences attracts occupation and economic
development. This may be desirable, but can imply the need to increase the safety standard
accordingly. Flood defences may be used for roads and houses, making later dike
reinforcement costly or unfeasible. A practical recommendation in this light is to construct the
road on a shoulder of the dike and to make the crest of the dike suitable for light traffic only
(Figure 3.3).

Figure 3.3. Dike cross-section with crest and shoulder.

Another important issue is crisis management. One of its elements is the inspection of the
flood defences during a high river discharge. In the Netherlands, water boards are
responsible for these inspections (which are carried out every 4 or 8 hours at high-water
conditions). Groups of volunteers (dike army) support the water boards in this activity. Each
group of volunteers has its own dike segment for inspection. They report small damages in
and around the dike, and subsequently these small damages can be repaired without
resulting in breaches. Furthermore, communication about expected levels of high water is
important because of the evacuation of people and cattle. This leads to the following main
recommendation from the Dutch perspective:

Prepare a plan for dike inspections and possible repair actions in periods of high river
floods;
Prepare plans for crisis management (early warning, evacuation, rescue, food
distribution, medical assistance).

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3.2

Integrated approaches
An integrated approach to flood risk management is strongly recommended. This implies in
particular: (1) consideration of the complete hydrodynamic system, (2) inclusion of fluvial
morphodynamics, and (3) an integrated management approach on basin scale.

3.2.1

Consideration of the complete hydrodynamic system

The Universidad Nacional studies consider the area of La Mojana only. However, the
inundations of La Mojana cannot be assessed in isolation, but should be treated in an
integrated assessment of the whole water system (Figure 3.4). The hydrodynamics of the Ro
Cauca and the La Mojana region depend not only on water levels and discharges in the Ro
Cauca and drainage in La Mojana, but also on conditions of the Ro Magdalena at the
downstream boundary and on upstream conditions in the Ro Cauca and other rivers flowing
to La Mojana. The downstream conditions on the Ro Magdalena affect the water levels on
the Ro Cauca and the drainage possibilities from La Mojana through backwater effects.
Infrastructural works further upstream along the Ro Cauca may have an impact on the risk
assessment downstream. For instance, dike reinforcement works upstream could increase
the inundation risk at La Mojana when the resulting faster flood wave propagation reduces the
attenuation of flood waves.
Another question to be answered is whether storage of flood water in La Mojana is needed to
mitigate flooding risks on the Ro Magdalena further downstream.
An analysis of the complete hydrodynamic system may also reveal alternative solutions for
reducing flooding risks in La Mojana. Possible examples might be dike relocation on the Ro
Cauca, the use of existing reservoirs on the Ro Magdalena and modification of the Brazo de
Loba.

Figure 3.4. Hydrodynamic relations between La Mojana and upstream and downstream river reaches (map adapted
from Universidad Nacional map).

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3.2.2

Inclusion of fluvial morphodynamics

Bank erosion related to the natural meandering behaviour of the rivers appears to be a
mechanism of dike failure and a consideration in tracing an appropriate dike alignment. It is
one of the signs that fluvial morphodynamics is an important aspect of the river system.
However, fluvial morphodynamics has received little attention in the studies by Universidad
Nacional. Relevant questions are:

What are the expected rates of bank erosion along the Ro Cauca? This may be derived
from a multi-temporal bank-line analysis of satellite images or aerial photographs,
building upon information in Universidad Nacional (2011, Vol. 2);
What is the evolution of longitudinal bed profiles of the main rivers in the area? In the
absence of detailed bed topography surveys, this evolution may be inferred from the
time development of stage-discharge relationships (rating curves) at hydrometric
stations (specific-gauge analysis).
Is there any evidence for the hypothesis on page 33 of Universidad Nacional (2011,
Vol. 3) that instability of the Cauca-Magdalena confluence can be ascribed to increased
sediment loads as a result of mining activities?
Does sedimentation in La Mojana contribute to flooding? Sedimentation could also be
an effect rather than a cause of flooding.

Morphodynamic studies for La Mojana might benefit from the current hydraulic,
sedimentological and morphological studies by Universidad del Norte for the Ro Cauca
between Colorado and Ach (INVIAS, convenio 1069-2011).
3.2.3

Integrated management approach on basin scale

An integrated approach implies a management of the system on basin scale. The team
understands that INVIAS was responsible for the dike construction along La Mojana. At the
same time CORPOMOJANA is involved as environmental organisation. A number of
authorities and organisations seem to be responsible for the dikes along the Ro Cauca, but it
is unclear how responsibilities and tasks are divided. Making a serious effort in enhancing
dike safety will require careful consideration by the Colombian authorities of institutional
arrangements of responsibilities and maintenance, to develop legislation, and to enforce such
legislation. The mere construction of dikes is not sufficient. The organization that will hold
responsibility for dike inspection and maintenance on a long-term time scale of decades,
needs to be in place. This is a long-term effort, but if such effort is not initiated, dikes will
continue to fail, leading to high expenditures on the long run.
In the light of basin-scale management, the creation of a national modelling centre is most
welcome.

3.3

Governance
Water boards arose in the Netherlands about 800 years ago to co-operate on dike building
and safety against flooding. They boast to be the oldest democratic institutions of the country
and are still in effect today. They are responsible for dike inspection, maintenance and
repairs. They could serve as an example for similar organizations in Colombia.

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Major hydraulic interventions to reduce flooding risk in the Netherlands in the twentieth
century surpassed the scale of local water boards and were imposed in a technocratic
manner. Increasing resistance among the population in the 1970s and 1980s subsequently
led to the development of methods to involve all stakeholders in decision making. A key
example is the development of the Planning Kit for the Room for the River programme. This
may serve as an inspiration for a similar approach to finding solutions for La Mojana.
For the Room for the River programme in the Netherlands, all stakeholders had been invited
to propose interventions to reduce flood levels and to improve ecological conditions by giving
more space to the river. This resulted in 693 proposed local measures. Subsequently, the
effects of each measure were assessed by calculating the costs, by evaluating the effects on
nature, landscape and cultural heritage, by calculating the number of houses to be
demolished and, last but not least, by computing the effects on water levels at the design
discharge using a two-dimensional hydraulic model. The results were used to construct an
easy-to-use and interactive tool or Planning Kit to compose and analyze integrated
strategies. The user could choose combinations of interventions on a map of the river on the
computer screen, and visualise the resulting lowering of flood levels, the corresponding costs
and the effects on nature, landscape, cultural heritage and houses. By interactively using this
tool, even non-specialist stakeholders discovered which interventions were effective and
feasible, and which ones were not, by taking the perspective of an engineer who has to solve
the problem. In this way, suitable solutions were not imposed by government officials or
technocrats, but discovered by the people themselves. This greatly enhanced the acceptance
of the final solution. The tool turned out to be very popular. It was really used by a broad
section of the stakeholders (including mayors, etc), not only by people with an affinity to
computers or technology. Moreover, the tool made the available information accessible to all
parties in the same way. It thus proved to be a truly democratic instrument.
The existing tool cannot be applied to La Mojana straight away. However, it may serve as an
inspiration for following a similar philosophy and approach. Both specialists and nonspecialists will be able to propose interventions. If the number of proposed interventions is
sufficiently high, we could develop a Planning Kit fully dedicated to La Mojana. Its
specifications will be developed in close collaboration with the stakeholders.
3.4

Hydraulic engineering sector

The team did not see any prominent role for engineering consultancy firms in studies for the
reduction of flooding risk in La Mojana. Fondo de Adaptacin explained the team to prefer
universities because the corresponding tender procedures are easier. The team therefore
recommends to review these procedures, as engineering consultancy firms can play a
valuable distinct role that is complementary to the role of universities. Consultancy firms are
better equipped for practical advice to bridge the gap between study and implementation.
The competition between universities on the engineering consultancy market hampers
national academic collaboration. For instance, the reports by Universidad Nacional, dated 23
April 2012, do not mention the mathematical modelling of the Ro Cauca between Colorado
and Ach by Universidad del Norte, which started 1 September 2011. Academic collaboration
might be improved by providing incentives for collaboration in scientific research funding and
by organizing annual national workshops on La Mojana studies.

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Skilled contractors are important because the safety of a dike depends not only on good
design but also on the quality of how the structure is built. Two items are very important in
quality control:
1. The compaction of the dike body. Especially, the impermeable clay core should be
compacted (statically) very well in small layers (not thicker than 20 cm). The other dike
body parts should also be well compacted, which may be achieved dynamically.
2. The clay material should have a precise water content during construction. Too dry will
not be good for compaction and lead to more permeability. Too wet will result in later
cracks in the core due to shrinkage.
Contractors with experience in building reservoir dams have often experience with these two
items.

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4 Recommendations for short-term actions

Although strictly speaking outside the scope of the assignment, the project team provided the
following recommendations for short-term actions during its first mission to Colombia:
1

3
3.1
3.2

3.3
3.4

3.5
4

5
6

Timely closure of breaches, in view of (1) reduction of inundation extent and duration,
(2) favourable working conditions for repairs and recovery, (3) connection of Nech to
national road network (improving also the accessibility of other areas), and (4)
restoration of original flood defence system based on a dike along the left bank of the
Cauca;
Closure works and sufficiently far from the river, in accordance with the
recommendations by Universidad Nacional. The scour hole in the dike breach is
probably deep. The new dike should hence be constructed at least at some distance
from the main scour hole, in an area with shallower flow channels and lower flow
velocities (this produced the semicircular dike alignments that are still visible on maps of
the Netherlands). Channel closure will stop the flow. Careful attention should be given to
backward erosion and heave mechanisms during and after closure. The width (in the
flow direction) of the base of the closure dike should therefore be relatively large (18
times the water elevation difference between both sides in the Netherlands, in case of a
clay dike on a sand layer). A properly designed filter construction can also prevent
backward erosion during closure. In general, the dike width should also be sufficient to
prevent undermining due to backward erosion or heave at rising river water levels;
The immediate works should be completed before the rainy season. Immediate action is
required if the works are to be executed this year (which is recommended):
Strong leadership and on-site supervision, possibly by an international consultancy firm,
in close collaboration with the Fondo de Adaptacin;
Immediate study of safe distance for new alignment of the dike and closure works based
on recent trends in river bank erosion (at least 100 m away from the river at Nuevo
Mundo, possibly more). A multi-temporal bank-line analysis of satellite images or aerial
photographs may support estimates of future bank erosion;
Immediate start of design and tender documents;
Immediate start of tracing the new alignment of the dike and the closure works, carrying
out topographic and bathymetric surveys along the alignment, identifying sources of
construction materials, planning the logistics, and stock piling material;
Preparation of a contingency plan for actions in case the works are not completed
before the next rainy season;
Contracting out part of the work to well-equipped contractors (e.g. barges with stones),
but letting another part of the work for small local contractors and labour. This creates
not only local employment, but also local ownership of the dike;
Acceptance of paying indemnification to land owners if the dike is located further away
from the river;
The team does not recommend bank stabilization or river training as a part of short-term
action. Adequate bank stabilization or river training along the Ro Cauca would require
implementation over a considerable length and would require special techniques such
as the application of launching and falling aprons.

Subsequently, the Fondo de Adaptacin has already given immediate follow-up by

contracting a local expert team, by fielding a mission of this team to Nuevo Mundo and by
starting the development of a workplan.

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The short-term actions recommended here are a part of the solutions on a medium term and
a long term. Closure of the breaches is a prerequisite for creating conditions to implement
works for long-term sustainability. The recommendation to abstain from bank stabilization
implies that locally periodic dike relocation may be necessary due to bank erosion. This
should be seen as normal maintenance of the system. It is recommended to construct the
new dike section well before the abandonment of the old dike section. This new dike would
still allow use of the land thus excised.

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5 Conclusions and recommendations

5.1

Conclusions
The studies by Universidad Nacional are impressive and provide a good basis for finding
solutions to water safety in La Mojana. Nonetheless, improvements are possible, as proposed
in this report. The most important finding from a Dutch perspective is the absence of a
complete risk-based approach, despite valuable elements for such an approach in
Universidad Nacional (2011, Vol. 2). Another important observation is that the hydrodynamics
of La Mojana have been analyzed without considering the relations with upstream and
downstream river reaches that on the one hand might offer solutions to reduce flooding risk in
La Mojana and on the other hand might experience adverse effects of interventions in La
Mojana.
The hydraulic MDLC model of Universidad Nacional is the best available integrator of present
knowledge on the hydraulic functioning of La Mojana. It is a good model in the present
phases of pre-design and evaluation, and the best that can be expected in the absence of
detailed data on terrain elevations. Next phases will require collection of digital elevation data
as well as a transition towards more physics-based models.
Conclusions generally follow logically from the analyses in the Universidad Nacional reports.
An example is the conclusion that a canal parallel to the road between San Marcos and Ach
is not feasible. Another example is the recommendation to dredge and clear the water
courses that form the main drainage arteries of La Mojana. The selection of the MDLC model
does not follow logically from the analysis in the report, but can nonetheless be supported for
the initial phases of pre-design and evaluation. The safety levels of the dike along the Ro
Cauca and its spillways are not supported by an underlying analysis.

5.2

Recommendations
A complete risk-based approach is recommended in order to develop rational safety
standards and an appropriate spatial vision or plan for La Mojana. It is recommended to
involve all local stakeholders actively in the process, using inspiration from Dutch experiences
with the Planning Kit at the start of the Room for the River programme. The solutions
proposed by Universidad Nacional will form the starting points, but alternatives will arise.
These alternatives may enhance the plan of Universidad Nacional, or at least enhance the
public acceptance of this plan if the alternatives turn out to be less suitable. This
recommendation can be elaborated through the following elements:

Develop a spatial vision or plan for the different uses of land in the area, considering
different alternatives;
Develop land use damage and mortality functions in relation to hydraulic parameters;
Identify representative flooding scenarios using a hydraulic model;
Define different investment options to reduce flooding risks;
Perform a societal cost-benefit analysis with respect to investments to reduce flooding
risk;
Evaluate the effects of different spatial visions or plans and flooding risk reduction
measures for representative flooding scenarios;

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Present the results of the evaluation in an accessible way to all stakeholders for
decision making on measures to be implemented, inspired by the Planning Kit approach
in the Netherlands;
Select the final plan in a participatory way.

A more integrated approach is recommended, based on consideration of the complete

hydrodynamic system, inclusion of fluvial morphodynamics and an integrated approach to
management on a basin scale.
The review of the studies on hydrology leads to the following recommendations:

Document the dike safety standard resulting from the complete risk-based analysis in
the form of a decreto so that it becomes an integral part of Colombian water
management practices, to be respected by all regional and local authorities;
Carry out further research into the changes of statistical characteristics of discharges of
the Ro Cauca, in view of the long-term changing of the El Nio and La Nia
phenomena. This will help in providing a better grip on a safety strategy for the future;
Carry out an integral hydrodynamic evaluation of the La Mojana inundations by
including the hydrodynamics of the Ro Magdalena, the upstream catchment of the Ro
Cauca and the impact of all infrastructural works along the rivers upstream;
Revise the design of the weirs or spillways (diques fusibles, vertederos) in the dike
along the Ro Cauca into a design with a higher safety level than 1/25 per year, allowing
water inflow at low river water levels, but being able to prevent inflows at higher levels.

The review of the studies on hydraulic modelling results in the following recommendations:

Use the existing model of Universidad Nacional as long as no other models are
available, as it is the best available integrator of knowledge on the hydraulic functioning
of La Mojana;
Collect digital elevation data to improve model results and to allow the preparation of
inundation maps on the basis of model results;
Develop a more physics-based mathematical model for next phases requiring more
detail and precision, provided that digital elevation data are available;
Develop an overall hydrodynamic mathematical model of the complete river system on a
river basin scale.

The review of the studies on geo-engineering and dike stability gives rise to the following
recommendations:

Obtain more geological information on the subsequent layers under the dike base, with
their types, parameters and thicknesses. Especially the permeable layers should be
known, because of their increased pressure head during a flood event;
Explicitly check failure mechanisms due to piping or backward erosion in the design and
in the assessment of the dike, since these are expected to be dominant for dike failure;
Incorporate the influence of reduced shear strength due to partial-uplift effects in the
design and the assessment of the dike. These partial-uplift effects are a result of an
increasing hydraulic head in the sand or gravel layer under the dike base.

Finally, short-term actions to close the breaches in the dike along the Ro Cauca are
recommended in accordance with Chapter 4.

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5.3

Proposed actions
Table 5.1 proposes seven concrete actions to implement the recommendations, along with
first products that could be delivered in 2013 as intermediate steps and possible contributions
from the Netherlands.
Table 5.1. Concrete actions to implement the recommendations.

5.4

Translation of proposed actions into potential projects

During the second mission to Colombia, part of the proposed actions to implement the
recommendations have been elaborated further into five concrete projects that could be
prepared for tendering on a short term. These potential projects are presented in Tables 5.2
to 5.6. The action numbers in these tables refer to the actions in Table 5.1.

Table 5.2. Potential project on dike safety standards.

Project nr: 1
Title: Dike safety standards
Contents: Definition of dike safety standards for dikes in Colombia, for different classes of hinterland
(economic damage, population). These standards regard dikes, not areas in Colombia.
Required expertise: risk analysis expert, dike design expert, economist
Results: Input for dike design in Action 6. First exercises for follow-up of Action 4 (for discussion and
introduction of risk-based concepts in Colombia)

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Table 5.3. Potential project with risk analysis at basin scale.

Project nr: 2
Title: River analysis at basin scale
Contents: Analysis of whole river system (Action 3). Quick set-up of 1D hydrodynamic model (Action
5) of main rivers (Cauca, Nech, San Jorge, Brazo de Loba, Magdalena, La Mojana) using available
data. Computations for analysis of effects of different parts of the system and effects of measures
Required expertise: hydrodynamic modeller
Results: Insight into effects from interventions upstream and downstream on flood water levels in La
Mojana. Insight into effects from interventions in La Mojana on flooding risk downstream. Design
conditions for dike. Effects of alternatives on flooding risk.

Table 5.4. Potential project for preliminary inundation maps and stakeholder involvement.

Project nr: 3
Title: Preliminary inundation maps and stakeholder involvement
Contents: Collection of digital elevation data (SLR, lidar) (Action 5). Preparation of preliminary
inundation maps using digital elevation data and existing model of Universidad Nacional. Invitation of
stakeholders to give vision on land use development and possible measures.
Required expertise: hydrodynamic modeller, peoples participation expert for organizing and guiding
consultation, good contacts with citizens in La Mojana
Results: First inundation maps and consultation results

Table 5.5. Potential project on functional dike design.

Project nr: 4
Title: Functional dike design
Contents: Sharp formulation of specifications for dike design including safety standards (Action 6).
Required expertise: hydraulic engineer, geotechnical engineer (dike design expert)
Results: Basis for actual design or basis for tendering of turnkey project for the full lifecycle of design,
financing, implementation and maintenance (under Dutch lead with Colombian partners)

Table 5.6. Potential project on institutional framework.

Project nr: 5
Title: Institutional framework
Contents: Development of advice for reinforcing the existing institutional framework (Action 7), in close
consultation with Colombian partners
Required expertise: governance expert, possibly representatives from institutions in other countries
Results: Recommendations to reinforce the existing institutional framework

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6 References
Camacho, L.A. & M.J. Lees (1999), Multilinear discrete lag-cascade model for channel
routing. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 226, pp.30-47.
Universidad Nacional (2011, Summary), Estudios, analisis y recomendaciones para el
ordenamiento ambiental y el desarollo territorial de La Mojana; Resumen ejecutivo.
Informe final, Bogot, 23 April 2012.
Universidad Nacional (2011, Vol. 1), Estudios, analisis y recomendaciones para el
ordenamiento ambiental y el desarollo territorial de La Mojana; Volumen 1:
Modelacin Matemtica. Final report, Author L.A. Camacho, Bogot, 23 April 2012.
Universidad Nacional (2011, Vol. 2), Estudios, analisis y recomendaciones para el
ordenamiento ambiental y el desarollo territorial de La Mojana; Volumen 2: Actividad
A - Evaluacin Dique Marginal. Final report, Author L. Posada, Bogot, 23 April 2012.
Universidad Nacional (2011, Vol. 3), Estudios, analisis y recomendaciones para el
ordenamiento ambiental y el desarollo territorial de La Mojana; Volumen 3: Actividad
B - Viabilidad Canal Paralelo. Final report, Author L.A. Camacho, Bogot, 23 April
2012.
Universidad Nacional (2011, Vol. 4), Estudios, analisis y recomendaciones para el
ordenamiento ambiental y el desarollo territorial de La Mojana; Volumen 4: Actividad
C - Priorizacin de Caos. Final report, Author L. Posada, Bogot, 23 April 2012.
Universidad Nacional (2011, Vol. 5), Estudios, analisis y recomendaciones para el
ordenamiento ambiental y el desarollo territorial de La Mojana; Volumen 5: Actividad
D - Diagnstico Prcticas e Instrumentos Gestin. Final report, Author V. Botero,
Bogot, 23 April 2012.
Van, M.A., A.R. Koelewijn & F.B.J. Barends (2005), Uplift phenomenon: model and validation.
International Journal of Geomechanics Special issue on Soft Clay Engineering and
Soft Clay Improvement, No. 5, pp. 98-106, June 2005.

La Mojana Validation mission report

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