Student Name

Teacher

AMA

DWE

HSO

INA

JWG

MMD

MATHEMATICAL METHODS (CAS)

Analysis Task 2
Friday September 5, 2014
Reading time: 10 minutes
Writing time: 60 minutes

Structure of SAC
Section

Number of
questions

1
2

10
2

Number of
questions to be
answered
10
2

Numbe
r of
marks
10
30
Total
40

Students are permitted to bring into the examination room: pens, pencils, highlighters, erasers,
sharpeners, rulers, one bound reference, one approved CAS calculator and, if desired, one
scientific calculator. Calculator memory DOES NOT need to be cleared.
Students are not permitted to bring into the examination room: blank sheets of paper and/or
white out liquid/tape.
Materials supplied
Question and answer book of 12 pages which includes 1 sheet of formulas at the end.
Answer sheet for multiple choice answers.
Working space is provided throughout the book.
Instructions
Do not detach the formula sheets from this book.
Write your name in the space provided above on this page.
All responses must be written in English.
Students are NOT permitted to bring mobile phones and/or any other unauthorised electronic
devices into the examination room.
Students must not disclose the contents of the task; to do so will be a breach of VCE guidelines
and will be dealt with according to VCAA regulations.

2014 MAM Analysis Task 2

SECTION 1
Instructions for Section 1
Answer all questions in pencil on the answer sheet provided for multiple choice questions.
Choose the response that is correct for the question.
A correct answer scores 1, an incorrect answer scores 0.
Marks will not be deducted for incorrect answers.
No marks will be given if more than one answer is completed for any question.
Do not detach the multiple choice answer sheet from this booklet.
Question 1
If Pr(Z < -c) = 0.75, where Z is a standard normal random variable, then c is closest to:
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.

0.6745
-0.6745
0.5987
0.7734
-0.7734

Question 2
If X Bi(n,p) is a binomial random variable with mean 20 and standard deviation 4, then values of n
and p respectively are:
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.

80 and 0.2
80 and 0.8
25 and 0.8
16 and 0.2
100 and 0.2

Question 3
If Pr(AB) = 0.3, Pr(AB) = 0.6 and Pr(B) = 0.4, then Pr (A) is:
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.

0.20
0.32
0.82
0.10
0.48

2014 MAM Analysis Task 2

Question 4
The discrete random variable X has the following probability distribution.

x
Pr( X x)

0.3

0.2

0.4

0.1

The mean of this distribution is:

A.
B.
C.
D.
E.

1.1
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.175

Question 5

Pr A a , Pr B b and Pr A B p
If

0 a 1 , 0 b 1 and 0 p 1
where

Pr A B
then
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.

is equal to
1p
1 (a+b)
1 (a+b) ab
2 (a+b) (1 a) (1 b)
1 + p (a+b)

Question 6

A random variable X has a normal distribution with a mean of 6 and a standard deviation of
0.5.
The random variable Z has a standard normal distribution.
The probability that X is greater than 7 is equal to

Pr Z 2
A.
B.
C.
D.

Pr Z 1
Pr Z 1
1 Pr Z 2

2014 MAM Analysis Task 2

1 Pr Z 2
E.

Question 7
The probability density function f(x) =

x 2 x [ p , 3]
0 elsewhere

The value of p is
A. 0
B. 1
3

24

18

C.
D.
3

20

E.
Question 8
According to a survey, 30% of unemployed women have never been married. If 10 unemployed
women are selected at random the probability (correct to four decimal places) that at least 7 have
never been married is
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.

0.9984
0.9894
0.0106
0.0090
0.0016

Question 9
The minimum number of times a fair coin must be tossed so that the probability of obtaining a head
on each trial is less than 0.0005 is
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.

8
9
10
11
12

Question 10
In an orchard of 2000 apple trees it is found that 1735 have a height greater than 2.8 metres. The
heights are normally distributed with a mean and a standard deviation of 0.2 metres. The value of
is closest to

A.
B.
C.
D.
E.

2014 MAM Analysis Task 2

3.023
2.577
2.230
1.115
0.223

A.
Multiple Choice Answer Sheet
This answer sheet must not be detached from
your test paper.
Use a pencil for all entries. For each question, shade the box which indicates your answer.
Marks will not be deducted for incorrect answers.
No mark will be given if more than one answer is shaded for any question.
If you make a mistake, erase the incorrect answer - do not cross it out.

2014 MAM Analysis Task 2

10

SECTION 2
Instructions for Section 2
Answer all questions in the space provided.
Unless otherwise specified an exact answer is required to a question.
In questions where more than one mark is available, appropriate working must be shown.
Unless otherwise indicated, the diagrams in this book are not drawn to scale.
The axes on any graphs drawn in this section must be labelled.
Question 1 (17 marks)
a. John travels to school by either walking or taking the bus.
If John walks to school one day, the probability that he walks the next day is 0.7. If John
catches the bus to school one day, the probability he catches the bus the next day is 0.6.
On Monday, the first day of term, John walked to school.
i.

Draw a tree diagram to represent John travelling to school for the first three days of
the term. Include all outcomes and probabilities.

2014 MAM Analysis Task 2

ii.

What is the probability, correct to three decimal places, that John walked to school on
the next 4 days?

iii.

What is the probability, correct to three decimal places, that John walked to school on
exactly 1 of the next 3 days?

iv.

What is the probability, correct to three decimal places, that John walked to school on
at least one of the next 3 days?

v.

Write down an equation using matrices which will enable John to calculate the
probability of him either walking to school w or catching the bus b after n days.

vi.

Johns mum wants him to walk to school at least 40% of the time. In the long term is
John walking to school enough to keep his mum happy?

2014 MAM Analysis Task 2

(2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 2 = 9 marks)

b. Vincent can either ride his bike to school or catch a bus. His decision as to how he gets to
school one day is independent of his decision the next day.
Over time it works out that he rides his bike to school sixty percent of the time.
i.

What is the probability, correct to 4 decimal places, that Vincent rides his bike to
school on the next 5 consecutive days?

ii.

What is the probability, correct to 4 decimal places, that Vincent rides his bike to
school on at least 3 of the next 5 days?

(1 + 2 = 3 marks)
c. When Vincent rides his bike to school, the time in minutes t, it takes him is a continuous
random variable with a probability density function given by

1 (
t+30 ) , if 10 t 30
f ( t )= 1000
0 elsewhere
i.

Sketch the graph of the pdf on the set of axes below. Label endpoints in exact
coordinate form.

2014 MAM Analysis Task 2

ii.

What is the expected time it takes Vincent to ride to school?

iii.

What is the standard deviation of the time in minutes it takes Vincent to ride to
school, correct to one decimal place?

(2 + 1 + 2 = 5 marks)

Question 2 (13 marks)

A researcher carries out a survey on the amount of time spent watching T.V. after school by students
in the suburbs of Balwyn and Doncaster.
a. The researcher found that the amount of time in hours, t ,that Balwyn students watched T.V.
is a continuous random variable with a probability density function given by

f(t) =

k t 2 ( t5 ) 0 t 5
0 elsewhere .

where k is a positive real constant.

10

2014 MAM Analysis Task 2

i.

Show that k = 0.0192

ii.

Sketch the graph of the probability density function on the set of axes below, labelling
all axial intercepts in exact coordinate form.

iii.

What is the mode of this distribution?

iv.

Find the median time, to the nearest minute, that Balwyn students spend watching
T.V. after school.

v.

Find the probability that a Balwyn student spends between 2 and 4 hours watching
T.V. after school.

11

vi.

2014 MAM Analysis Task 2

If Pr ( t > b ) = 0.30, find b correct to the nearest minute.

(2 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 8 marks)
b. The researcher found that the time in hours spent watching T.V. by Doncaster students, is
normally distributed with a mean of 3 hours and a standard deviation of 40 minutes.
i.

If a student is randomly selected from Doncaster, what is the probability, correct to 4

decimal places, that this student spends at least 4 hours watching T.V after school?

ii.

30% of students from Doncaster watch a total amount of T.V. after school greater than
d hours. What is the value of d, correct to the nearest minute?

(1 + 1 = 2 marks)
c. Of the surveyed student population, 60% lived in Balwyn and 40% lived in Doncaster. If a
student is chosen at random from the student population and found to watch less than 2 hours
of T.V., what is the probability, correct to 3 decimal places, that this student lives in Balwyn?

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2014 MAM Analysis Task 2

(3 marks)

END OF SAC