Bayes'theorem

FromWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia

Inprobabilitytheoryandstatistics,Bayes'theorem(alternativelyBayes'
laworBayes'rule)describestheprobabilityofanevent,basedon
conditionsthatmightberelatedtotheevent.Forexample,supposeoneis
interestedinwhetherAddisonhascancer.Furthermore,supposethat
Addisonisage65.Ifcancerisrelatedtoage,informationaboutAddison's
agecanbeusedtomoreaccuratelyassesshisorherchanceofhaving
cancerusingBayes'Theorem.
Whenapplied,theprobabilitiesinvolvedinBayes'theoremmayhave
Ablueneonsign,showingthesimple
differentinterpretations.Inoneoftheseinterpretations,thetheoremis
statementofBayes'theorem
useddirectlyaspartofaparticularapproachtostatisticalinference.In
particular,withtheBayesianinterpretationofprobability,thetheorem
expresseshowasubjectivedegreeofbeliefshouldrationallychangetoaccountforevidence:thisisBayesian
inference,whichisfundamentaltoBayesianstatistics.However,Bayes'theoremhasapplicationsinawiderange
ofcalculationsinvolvingprobabilities,notjustinBayesianinference.
Bayes'theoremisnamedafterRev.ThomasBayes(/bez/17011761),whofirstshowedhowtousenew
evidencetoupdatebeliefs.ItwasfurtherdevelopedbyPierreSimonLaplace,whofirstpublishedthemodern
formulationinhis1812Thorieanalytiquedesprobabilits.SirHaroldJeffreysputBayes'algorithmand
Laplace'sformulationonanaxiomaticbasis.JeffreyswrotethatBayes'theorem"istothetheoryofprobability
whatPythagoras'stheoremistogeometry".[1]

Contents
1Statementoftheorem
2Examples
2.1Canceratage65
2.2Drugtesting
2.3Amorecomplicatedexample
3Interpretations
3.1Bayesianinterpretation
3.2Frequentistinterpretation
3.2.1Example
4Forms
4.1Events
4.1.1Simpleform
4.1.2Alternativeform
4.1.3Extendedform
4.2Randomvariables
4.2.1Simpleform
4.2.2Extendedform
4.3Bayes'rule
5Derivation
5.1Forevents
5.2Forrandomvariables
6History
7Seealso
8Notes
9Furtherreading
10Externallinks

Statementoftheorem
Bayes'theoremisstatedmathematicallyasthe
followingequation:[2]

whereAandBareevents.
P(A)andP(B)aretheprobabilitiesofAandB
withoutregardtoeachother.
P(A|B),aconditionalprobability,isthe
probabilityofAgiventhatBistrue.
P(B|A),istheprobabilityofBgiventhatAis
true.

Examples
Canceratage65

VisualizationofBayes'theorembysuperpositionoftwo
decisiontrees

SupposewewanttoknowAddison'sprobabilityofhavingcancer,butwedon'tknowanythingabouthimorher
(apartfromname,whichweassumetobeunrelatedtohavingcancer).Despitenotknowinganythingabout
Addison,aprobabilitycanbeassignedbasedonthegeneralprevalenceofcancer.Forthesakeofthisexample,
supposeitis1%.Thisisknownasthebaserateorpriorprobabilityofhavingcancer."Prior"referstothetime
beforebeinginformedabouttheparticularcaseathand.
Next,supposewefindoutthatAddisonis65yearsold.Ifweassumethatcancerandagearerelated,thisnew
pieceofinformationcanbeusedtobetterassessAddison'schanceofhavingcancer.Moreprecisely,we'dliketo
knowtheprobabilitythatapersonhascancerwhenitisknownthatheorsheis65yearsold.Thisquantityis
knownasthecurrentprobability,where"current"referstouponfindingoutinformationabouttheparticularcase
athand.
InordertoapplyknowledgeofAddison'sageinconjunctionwithBayes'Theorem,twoadditionalpiecesof
informationareneeded.Note,however,thattheadditionalinformationisnotspecifictoAddison.Theneeded
informationisasfollows:
1. Theprobabilityofbeing65yearsold.Supposeitis0.2%
2. Theprobabilitythatapersonwithcanceris65yearsold.Supposeitis0.5%.Notethatthisisgreaterthan
thepreviousvalue.Thisreflectsthatpeoplewithcanceraredisproportionately65yearsold.
Knowingthis,alongwiththebaserate,wecancalculatethataperson(suchasAddison)whoisage65hasa
probabilityofhavingcancerequalto

Itmaycomeasasurprisethateventhoughbeing65yearsoldincreasestheriskofhavingcancer,Addison's
probabilityofhavingcancerisstillfairlylow.Thisisbecausethebaserateofcancer(regardlessofage)islow.
Thisillustratesboththeimportanceofbaserate,aswellasthatitiscommonlyneglected.[3]Baserateneglect
leadstoseriousmisinterpretationofstatisticstherefore,specialcareshouldbetakentoavoidsuchmistakes.
BecomingfamiliarwithBayes'Theoremisonewaytocombatthenaturaltendencytoneglectbaserates.

Drugtesting

Supposeadrugtestis99%sensitiveand99%specific.Thatis,thetestwillproduce99%truepositiveresultsfor
drugusersand99%truenegativeresultsfornondrugusers.Supposethat
0.5%ofpeopleareusersofthedrug.Ifarandomlyselectedindividual
testspositive,whatistheprobabilityheorsheisauser?

Treediagramillustratingdrugtesting
example.U,Ubar,"+"and""are
theeventsrepresentinguser,non
user,positiveresultandnegative
result.Percentagesinparenthesesare
calculated.

Despitetheapparentaccuracyofthetest,ifanindividualtestspositive,itismorelikelythattheydonotusethe
drugthanthattheydo.Thisagainillustratestheimportanceofbaserates,andhowtheformationofpolicycanbe
egregiouslymisguidedifbaseratesareneglected.
Thissurprisingresultarisesbecausethenumberofnonusersisverylargecomparedtothenumberofusersthus
thenumberoffalsepositives(0.995%)outweighsthenumberoftruepositives(0.495%).Touseconcrete
numbers,if1000individualsaretested,thereareexpectedtobe995nonusersand5users.Fromthe995non
users,0.0199510falsepositivesareexpected.Fromthe5users,0.9955truepositivesareexpected.
Outof15positiveresults,only5,about33%,aregenuine.
Note:Theimportanceofspecificitycanbeillustratedbyshowingthatevenifsensitivityis100%andspecificity
isat99%theprobabilityofthepersonbeingadruguseris33%butifthespecificityischangedto99.5%and
thesensitivityisdroppeddownto99%theprobabilityofthepersonbeingadruguserrisesto49.8%.

Amorecomplicatedexample
Theentireoutputofafactoryisproducedonthreemachines.Thethreemachinesaccountfor20%,30%,and
50%oftheoutput,respectively.Thefractionofdefectiveitemsproducedisthis:forthefirstmachine,5%forthe
secondmachine,3%forthethirdmachine,1%.Ifanitemischosenatrandomfromthetotaloutputandisfound
tobedefective,whatistheprobabilitythatitwasproducedbythethirdmachine?
Asolutionisasfollows.LetAidenotetheeventthatarandomlychosenitemwasmadebytheithmachine(for
i=1,2,3).LetBdenotetheeventthatarandomlychosenitemisdefective.Then,wearegiventhefollowing
information:
P(A1)=0.2,P(A2)=0.3,P(A3)=0.5.
IftheitemwasmadebymachineA1,thentheprobabilitythatitisdefectiveis0.05thatis,P(B|A1)=0.05.
Overall,wehave

P(B|A1)=0.05,P(B|A2)=0.03,P(B|A3)=0.01.
Toanswertheoriginalquestion,wefirstfindP(B).Thatcanbedoneinthefollowingway:
P(B)=iP(B|Ai)P(Ai)=(0.05)(0.2)+(0.03)(0.3)+(0.01)(0.5)=0.024.
Hence2.4%ofthetotaloutputofthefactoryisdefective.
WearegiventhatBhasoccurred,andwewanttocalculatetheconditionalprobabilityofA3.ByBayes'theorem,
P(A3|B)=P(B|A3)P(A3)/P(B)=(0.01)(0.50)/(0.024)=5/24.
Giventhattheitemisdefective,theprobabilitythatitwasmadebythethirdmachineisonly5/24.Although
machine3produceshalfofthetotaloutput,itproducesamuchsmallerfractionofthedefectiveitems.Hencethe
knowledgethattheitemselectedwasdefectiveenablesustoreplacethepriorprobabilityP(A3)=1/2bythe
smallerposteriorprobabilityP(A3|B)=5/24.

Interpretations
TheinterpretationofBayes'theoremdependsonthe
interpretationofprobabilityascribedtotheterms.Thetwo
maininterpretationsaredescribedbelow.

Bayesianinterpretation
IntheBayesian(orepistemological)interpretation,
probabilitymeasuresadegreeofbelief.Bayes'theoremthen
linksthedegreeofbeliefinapropositionbeforeandafter
accountingforevidence.Forexample,supposeitisbelieved
with50%certaintythatacoinistwiceaslikelytolandheads
thantails.Ifthecoinisflippedanumberoftimesandthe
outcomesobserved,thatdegreeofbeliefmayrise,fallor
remainthesamedependingontheresults.

A)P(A)i.e.P(A|B)=P(B A)P(A)
P(B) .Similar
reasoningcanbeusedtoshowthatP(|B)=

ForpropositionAandevidenceB,

P(B )P()
P(B) etc.

P(A),theprior,istheinitialdegreeofbeliefinA.
P(A|B),theposterior,isthedegreeofbeliefhavingaccountedforB.
thequotientP(B|A)/P(B)representsthesupportBprovidesforA.
FormoreontheapplicationofBayes'theoremundertheBayesianinterpretationofprobability,seeBayesian
inference.

Frequentistinterpretation
Inthefrequentistinterpretation,probabilitymeasuresaproportionofoutcomes.Forexample,supposean
experimentisperformedmanytimes.P(A)istheproportionofoutcomeswithpropertyA,andP(B)thatwith
propertyB.P(B|A)istheproportionofoutcomeswithpropertyBoutofoutcomeswithpropertyA,andP(A|B)
theproportionofthosewithAoutofthosewithB.
TheroleofBayes'theoremisbestvisualizedwithtreediagrams,asshowntotheright.Thetwodiagrams
partitionthesameoutcomesbyAandBinoppositeorders,toobtaintheinverseprobabilities.Bayes'theorem
servesasthelinkbetweenthesedifferentpartitionings.
Example

Anentomologistspotswhatmightbeararesubspeciesofbeetle,duetothepatternonitsback.Intherare
subspecies,98%havethepattern,orP(Pattern|Rare)=98%.Inthecommonsubspecies,5%havethepattern.
Theraresubspeciesaccountsforonly0.1%ofthepopulation.Howlikelyisthebeetlehavingthepatterntobe
rare,orwhatisP(Rare|Pattern)?
FromtheextendedformofBayes'theorem(sinceanybeetlecanbeonlyrareorcommon),

Illustrationoffrequentist
interpretationwithtreediagrams.
Bayes'theoremconnectsconditional
probabilitiestotheirinverses.

Treediagramillustratingfrequentist
example.R,C,PandPbararethe
eventsrepresentingrare,common,
patternandnopattern.Percentagesin
parenthesesarecalculated.Notethat
threeindependentvaluesaregiven,so
itispossibletocalculatetheinverse
tree(seefigureabove).

Forms
Events
Simpleform
ForeventsAandB,providedthatP(B)0,

Inmanyapplications,forinstanceinBayesianinference,theeventBisfixedinthediscussion,andwewishto
considertheimpactofitshavingbeenobservedonourbeliefinvariouspossibleeventsA.Insuchasituationthe
denominatorofthelastexpression,theprobabilityofthegivenevidenceB,isfixedwhatwewanttovaryisA.
Bayes'theoremthenshowsthattheposteriorprobabilitiesareproportionaltothenumerator:
(proportionalityoverAforgivenB).
Inwords:posteriorisproportionaltopriortimeslikelihood.[4]
IfeventsA1,A2,...,aremutuallyexclusiveandexhaustive,i.e.,oneofthemiscertaintooccurbutnotwocan
occurtogether,andweknowtheirprobabilitiesuptoproportionality,thenwecandeterminetheproportionality
constantbyusingthefactthattheirprobabilitiesmustadduptoone.Forinstance,foragiveneventA,theeventA
itselfanditscomplementAareexclusiveandexhaustive.Denotingtheconstantofproportionalitybycwehave
and
Addingthesetwoformulaswededucethat

Alternativeform
AnotherformofBayes'Theoremthatisgenerallyencounteredwhenlookingattwocompetingstatementsor
hypothesesis:

Foranepistemologicalinterpretation:
ForpropositionAandevidenceorbackgroundB,[5]
P(A),thepriorprobability,istheinitialdegreeofbeliefinA.

P(A),isthecorrespondingprobabilityoftheinitialdegreeofbeliefagainstA:1P(A)=P(A)
P(B|A),theconditionalprobabilityorlikelihood,isthedegreeofbeliefinB,giventhatthepropositionA
istrue.
P(B|A),theconditionalprobabilityorlikelihood,isthedegreeofbeliefinB,giventhatthepropositionA
isfalse.
P(A|B),theposteriorprobability,istheprobabilityforAaftertakingintoaccountBforandagainstA.
Extendedform
Often,forsomepartition{Aj}oftheeventspace,theeventspaceisgivenorconceptualizedintermsofP(Aj)and
P(B|Aj).ItisthenusefultocomputeP(B)usingthelawoftotalprobability:

InthespecialcasewhereAisabinaryvariable:

Randomvariables
ConsiderasamplespacegeneratedbytworandomvariablesXandY.In
principle,Bayes'theoremappliestotheeventsA={X=x}and
B={Y=y}.However,termsbecome0atpointswhereeithervariablehas
finiteprobabilitydensity.Toremainuseful,Bayes'theoremmaybe
formulatedintermsoftherelevantdensities(seeDerivation).
Simpleform
IfXiscontinuousandYisdiscrete,

IfXisdiscreteandYiscontinuous,

Diagramillustratingthemeaningof
Bayes'theoremasappliedtoanevent
spacegeneratedbycontinuous
randomvariablesXandY.Notethat
thereexistsaninstanceofBayes'
theoremforeachpointinthedomain.
Inpractice,theseinstancesmightbe
parametrizedbywritingthespecified
probabilitydensitiesasafunctionofx
andy.

IfbothXandYarecontinuous,

Extendedform
Acontinuouseventspaceisoftenconceptualizedintermsofthenumeratorterms.Itisthenusefultoeliminate
thedenominatorusingthelawoftotalprobability.ForfY(y),thisbecomesanintegral:

Bayes'rule
Mainarticle:Bayes'rule
Bayes'ruleisBayes'theoreminoddsform.

where

Diagramillustratinghowanevent
spacegeneratedbycontinuous
randomvariablesXandYisoften
conceptualized.

iscalledtheBayesfactororlikelihoodratioandtheoddsbetweentwoeventsissimplytheratioofthe
probabilitiesofthetwoevents.Thus

SotherulesaysthattheposterioroddsaretheprioroddstimestheBayesfactor,orinotherwords,posterioris
proportionaltopriortimeslikelihood.

Derivation
Forevents
Bayes'theoremmaybederivedfromthedefinitionofconditionalprobability:

Forrandomvariables
FortwocontinuousrandomvariablesXandY,Bayes'theoremmaybeanalogouslyderivedfromthedefinitionof
conditionaldensity:

History
Bayes'theoremwasnamedaftertheReverendThomasBayes(170161),whostudiedhowtocomputea
distributionfortheprobabilityparameterofabinomialdistribution(inmodernterminology).Bayes'unpublished
manuscriptwassignificantlyeditedbyRichardPricebeforeitwasposthumouslyreadattheRoyalSociety.Price
edited[6]Bayes'majorworkAnEssaytowardssolvingaProblemintheDoctrineofChances(1763),which
appearedinPhilosophicalTransactions,[7]andcontainsBayes'Theorem.Pricewroteanintroductiontothepaper
whichprovidessomeofthephilosophicalbasisofBayesianstatistics.In1765hewaselectedaFellowofthe
RoyalSocietyinrecognitionofhisworkonthelegacyofBayes.[8][9]
TheFrenchmathematicianPierreSimonLaplacereproducedandextendedBayes'resultsin1774,apparently
quiteunawareofBayes'work.[10][11]StephenStiglersuggestedin1983thatBayes'theoremwasdiscoveredby
NicholasSaundersonsometimebeforeBayes[12]thatinterpretation,however,hasbeendisputed.[13]
MartynHooper[14]andSharonMcGrayne[15]havearguedthatRichardPrice'scontributionwassubstantial:
Bymodernstandards,weshouldrefertotheBayesPricerule.PricediscoveredBayes'work,
recognizeditsimportance,correctedit,contributedtothearticle,andfoundauseforit.Themodern
conventionofemployingBayes'namealoneisunfairbutsoentrenchedthatanythingelsemakes
littlesense.
[15]

Seealso
Bayesianinference
Inductiveprobability

Notes
1. Jeffreys,Harold(1973).ScientificInference(3rded.).CambridgeUniversityPress.p.31.ISBN9780521180788.
2. Stuart,A.Ord,K.(1994),Kendall'sAdvancedTheoryofStatistics:VolumeIDistributionTheory,EdwardArnold,
8.7.
3. DanielKahneman(25October2011).Thinking,FastandSlow(http://books.google.com/books?id=ZuKTvERuPG8C).
Macmillan.ISBN9781429969352.Retrieved8April2012.
4. Lee,PeterM.(2012)."Chapter1".BayesianStatistics(http://wwwusers.york.ac.uk/~pml1/bayes/book.htm).Wiley.
ISBN9781118332573.
5. "BayesTheorem:Introduction"(http://www.trinity.edu/cbrown/bayesweb/).TrinityUniversity.
6. RichardAllen(1999).DavidHartleyonHumanNature(http://books.google.com/books?
id=NCu6HhGlAB8C&pg=PA243).SUNYPress.pp.2434.ISBN9780791494516.Retrieved16June2013.
7. Bayes,Thomas,andPrice,Richard(1763)."AnEssaytowardssolvingaProblemintheDoctrineofChance.Bythe
lateRev.Mr.Bayes,communicatedbyMr.Price,inalettertoJohnCanton,A.M.F.R.S."
(http://www.stat.ucla.edu/history/essay.pdf)(PDF).PhilosophicalTransactionsoftheRoyalSocietyofLondon53(0):
370418.doi:10.1098/rstl.1763.0053(https://dx.doi.org/10.1098%2Frstl.1763.0053).
8. Holland,pp.467.
9. RichardPrice(1991).Price:PoliticalWritings(http://books.google.com/books?id=xdHgjy2vzUC&pg=PR23).
CambridgeUniversityPress.p.xxiii.ISBN9780521409698.Retrieved16June2013.
10. LaplacerefinedBayes'theoremoveraperiodofdecades:
LaplaceannouncedhisindependentdiscoveryofBayes'theoremin:Laplace(1774)"Mmoiresurlaprobabilit
descausesparlesvnements,"Mmoiresdel'AcadmieroyaledesSciencesdeMI(Savantstrangers),4:621
656.Reprintedin:Laplace,Oeuvrescompltes(Paris,France:GauthierVillarsetfils,1841),vol.8,pp.2765.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Availableonlineat:Gallica(http://gallica.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/bpt6k77596b/f32.image).Bayes'theoremappears
onp.29.
LaplacepresentedarefinementofBayes'theoremin:Laplace(read:1783/published:1785)"Mmoiresurles
approximationsdesformulesquisontfonctionsdetrsgrandsnombres,"Mmoiresdel'Acadmieroyaledes
SciencesdeParis,423467.Reprintedin:Laplace,Oeuvrescompltes(Paris,France:GauthierVillarsetfils,
1844),vol.10,pp.295338.Availableonlineat:Gallica
(http://gallica.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/bpt6k775981/f218.image.langEN).Bayes'theoremisstatedonpage301.
Seealso:Laplace,Essaiphilosophiquesurlesprobabilits(Paris,France:Mme.Ve.Courcier[Madameveuve
(i.e.,widow)Courcier],1814),page10(http://books.google.com/books?
id=rDUJAAAAIAAJ&pg=PA10#v=onepage&q&f=false).Englishtranslation:PierreSimon,Marquisde
LaplacewithF.W.TruscottandF.L.Emory,trans.,APhilosophicalEssayonProbabilities(NewYork,New
York:JohnWiley&Sons,1902),page15(http://google.com/books?
id=WxoPAAAAIAAJ&pg=PA15#v=onepage&q&f=false).
Daston,Lorraine(1988).ClassicalProbabilityintheEnlightenment.PrincetonUnivPress.p.268.ISBN069108497
1.
Stigler,StephenM(1983)."WhoDiscoveredBayes'Theorem?".TheAmericanStatistician37(4):290296.
doi:10.1080/00031305.1983.10483122(https://dx.doi.org/10.1080%2F00031305.1983.10483122).
Edwards,A.W.F.(1986)."IstheReferenceinHartley(1749)toBayesianInference?".TheAmericanStatistician40
(2):109110.doi:10.1080/00031305.1986.10475370(https://dx.doi.org/10.1080%2F00031305.1986.10475370).
Hooper,Martyn(2013)."RichardPrice,Bayes'theorem,andGod".Significance10(1):3639.doi:10.1111/j.1740
9713.2013.00638.x(https://dx.doi.org/10.1111%2Fj.17409713.2013.00638.x).
McGrayne,S.B.(2011).TheTheoryThatWouldNotDie:HowBayes'RuleCrackedtheEnigmaCode,HuntedDown
RussianSubmarines&EmergedTriumphantfromTwoCenturiesofControversy.YaleUniversityPress.ISBN9780
300188226.

Furtherreading
Bruss,F.Thomas(2013),"250yearsof'AnEssaytowardssolvingaProblemintheDoctrineofChance.
BythelateRev.Mr.Bayes,communicatedbyMr.Price,inalettertoJohnCanton,A.M.F.R.S.'",DOI
10.1365/s132910130077z,JahresberichtderDeutschenMathematikerVereinigung,SpringerVerlag,
Vol.115,Issue34(2013),129133.
Gelman,A,Carlin,JB,Stern,HS,andRubin,DB(2003),"BayesianDataAnalysis",SecondEdition,CRC
Press.
Grinstead,CMandSnell,JL(1997),"IntroductiontoProbability(2ndedition)",AmericanMathematical
Society(freepdfavailable)[1]
(http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/teaching_aids/books_articles/probability_book/book.html).
Hazewinkel,Michiel,ed.(2001),"Bayesformula"(http://www.encyclopediaofmath.org/index.php?
title=p/b015380),EncyclopediaofMathematics,Springer,ISBN9781556080104
McGrayne,SB(2011).TheTheoryThatWouldNotDie:HowBayes'RuleCrackedtheEnigmaCode,
HuntedDownRussianSubmarines&EmergedTriumphantfromTwoCenturiesofControversy.Yale
UniversityPress.ISBN9780300188226.
Laplace,P(1774/1986),"MemoirontheProbabilityoftheCausesofEvents",StatisticalScience1(3):364
378.
Lee,PM(2012),"BayesianStatistics:AnIntroduction",Wiley.
Rosenthal,JS(2005),"StruckbyLightning:theCuriousWorldofProbabilities".HarperCollings.
Stigler,SM(1986)."Laplace's1774MemoironInverseProbability".StatisticalScience1(3):359363.
doi:10.1214/ss/1177013620(https://dx.doi.org/10.1214%2Fss%2F1177013620).
Stone,JV(2013),downloadchapter1of"Bayes'Rule:ATutorialIntroductiontoBayesianAnalysis"
(http://jimstone.staff.shef.ac.uk/BookBayes2012/BayesRuleBookMain.html),SebtelPress,England.

Externallinks
Bayes'theorem(http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/56808)atEncyclopdiaBritannica
TheTheoryThatWouldNotDiebySharonBertschMcGrayne
(http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/07/books/review/thetheorythatwouldnotdiebysharonbertsch
mcgraynebookreview.html)NewYorkTimesBookReviewbyJohnAllenPauloson5August2011
VisualexplanationofBayesusingtrees(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zxm4Xxvzohk)(video)
Bayes'frequentistinterpretationexplainedvisually(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8VZqxcu0I0)
(video)

EarliestKnownUsesofSomeoftheWordsofMathematics(B)(http://jeff560.tripod.com/b.html).
Containsoriginsof"Bayesian","Bayes'Theorem","BayesEstimate/Risk/Solution","EmpiricalBayes",
and"BayesFactor".
Weisstein,EricW.,"Bayes'Theorem"(http://mathworld.wolfram.com/BayesTheorem.html),MathWorld.
Bayes'theorem(http://planetmath.org/BayesTheorem)atPlanetMath.org.
BayesTheoremandtheFollyofPrediction(http://rldinvestments.com/Articles/BayesTheorem.html)
AtutorialonprobabilityandBayes'theoremdevisedforOxfordUniversitypsychologystudents
(http://www.celiagreen.com/charlesmccreery/statistics/bayestutorial.pdf)
AnIntuitiveExplanationofBayes'TheorembyEliezerS.Yudkowsky
(http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes)
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