Experiments
Introduction
In this course we will pretty much cover the textbook - all of the concepts
and designs included. I think we will have plenty of examples to look at and
experience to draw from.
Please note: the main topics listed in the syllabus follow the chapters in the
book.
A word of advice regarding the analyses. The prerequisite for this course is
STAT 501 - Regression and STAT 502 - Analysis of Variance. However, the
focus of the course is on the design and not on the analysis. Thus, one can
successfully complete this course without these prerequisites, with just
STAT 500 - Applied Statistics for instance, but it will require much more
work, and for the analysis less appreciation of the subtleties involved. You
might say it is more conceptual than it is math oriented.
Learning objectives & outcomes
Upon completion of this lesson, you should be able to do the following:
understand the issues and principles of Design of Experiments
(DOE),
understand experimentation is a process,
list the guidelines for designing experiments, and
recognize the key historical figures in DOE.
Let's start with a simple question...
What is the Scientific Method?
Do you remember learning about this back in high school or junior high
even? What were those steps again?
Decide what phenomenon you wish to investigate. Specify how you can
manipulate the factor and hold all other conditions fixed, to insure that
"All experiments are designed experiments, it is just that some are poorly
designed and some are well-designed."
Engineering Experiments
If we had infinite time and resource budgets there probably wouldn't be a
big fuss made over designing experiments. In production and quality
control we want to control the error and learn as much as we can about the
process or the underlying theory with the resources at hand. From an
engineering perspective we're trying to use experimentation for the
following purposes:
reduce time to design/develop new products & processes
improve performance of existing processes
improve reliability and performance of products
achieve product & process robustness
perform evaluation of materials, design
alternatives, setting component & system tolerances, etc.
We always want to fine tune or improve the process. In today's global world
this drive for competitiveness affects all of us both as consumers and
producers.
Robustness is a concept that enters into statistics at several points. At the
analysis stage robustness refers to a technique that isn't overly influenced
by bad data. Even if there is an outlier or bad data you still want to get the
right answer. Regardless of who or what is involved in the process - it is still
going to work. We will come back to this notion of robustness later in the
course (Lesson 12).
Every experiment design has inputs. Back to the cake baking example: we
have our ingredients such as flour, sugar, milk, eggs, etc. Regardless of the
quality of these ingredients we still want our cake to come out successfully.
In every experiment there are inputs and in addition there are factors (such
as time of baking, temperature, geometry of the cake pan, etc.), some of
which you can control and others that you can't control. The experimenter
must think about factors that affect the outcome. We also talk about the
output and the yield or the response to your experiment. For the cake, the
output might be measured as texture, flavor, height, size, or flavor.
Four Eras in the History of DOE
Here's a quick timeline:
The agricultural origins, 1918 1940s
o R. A. Fisher & his co-workers
o Profound impact on agricultural science
o Factorial designs, ANOVA
The first industrial era, 1951 late 1970s
o Box & Wilson, response surfaces
o Applications in the chemical & process industries
The second industrial era, late 1970s 1990
o Quality improvement initiatives in many companies
W. Edwards Deming
Around 1990 Six Sigma, a new way of representing CQI, became popular.
Now it is a company and they employ a technique which has been adopted
by many of the large manufacturing companies. This is a technique that
uses statistics to make decisions based on quality and feedback loops. It
incorporates a lot of the previous statistical and management techniques.
Clinical Trials
s2n.
The
f study and jot down several of the factors that are pertinent in your own research area? Into what categories do these fall?
Get statistical thinking involved early when you are preparing to design an
experiment! Getting well into an experiment before you have considered
these implications can be disastrous. Think and experiment sequentially.
Experimentation is a process where what you know informs the design of
the next experiment, and what you learn from it becomes the knowledge
base to design the next.