Agric. sci. dev., Vol(4), No (3), March, 2015. pp.

35-40

TI Journals

Agriculture Science Developments

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ISSN:
2306-7527
Copyright 2015. All rights reserved for TI Journals.

Monthly Evapotranspiration Modeling using

Intelligent Systems in Tabriz, Iran
Bahram Esmaeilzadeh *
Lecture, Department of Civil Engineering, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran.

Mohammad Taghi Sattari

Assistant Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.
*Corresponding author: bahram1411@gmail.com

Keywords

Abstract

ANN
Evapotranspiration
FAO-Penman-Monteith,
GP

Evapotranspiration as an important element of hydrologic cycle has a main role in watersheds balance
assessment. In plant water requirements and Evapotranspiration volume calculation, firstly reference
evapotranspiration (ET0) have to be computed and then by using different methods for any plant water
requirements can be estimated. In this paper firstly the (ET0) factor calculated by standard FAO-PenmanMonteith formula by using climatic data of Tabriz station and then combinations of climatic parameters such
as mean, minimum and maximum of air temperature, mean, minimum and maximum of relative humidity
rainfall, wind speed and sunshine hours considered as an input of Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs) Feed
Forward Back Propagation Neural Networks and Genetic Programming for estimate monthly (ET0). Results
showed that both approaches in modeling evapotranspiration showed exact results, but Genetic
Programming, can provides a applicable alternative mathematical relation to predict evapotranspiration.
Different scenario analysis with neural networks suggests that while rainfall data does not have any
significant influence in predicting evapotranspiration, but monthly time index could be improve modeling
results.

1.

Introduction

It is essential to accurately estimate crop water requirement in order to design irrigation system, irrigation scheduling, water management
systems and plant system modeling. Accurate estimates of crop water requirements in agriculture have a direct connection with the detailed
estimate of monthly evapotranspiration, which provide ground for precise design and implementation of hydraulic structures and optimal
utilization of the limited water resources within country. Evapotranspiration is considered as an important component of hydrological cycle,
which is significantly used to examine watershed balance. In order to calculate crop water requirement and evapotranspiration volume, (ET0) is
calculated at first. Then, evapotranspiration is calculated for each plant species. (ET0) can be directly measured either using Lysimeter such
empirical relationship as Penman-Monteith. The modified version of FAO-Penman-Monteithis used as the basis of such software as CropWat
used in the calculation of evapotranspiration. Although Lysimeter measures evapotranspiration accurately, placement of Lysimeter is costly and
not economically effective. So far, many approaches were developed to calculate ET0 based on meteorological data in various geographical and
climatic conditions. These methods require a range of complicated equations such as Penman-Monteith Allen et al. [1] dependent on many
meteorological data rather than less complicated equations such as Blanney and Criddle [2] and Hargreaves and Samani [3] dependent on small
data. Many researchers around the world argued that FAO-Penman-Monteith methods the most accurate method to estimate (ET0) in
comparison with Lysimeter . Therefore, FAO-Penman-Monteith method was used as the reference method in this study. Nowadays, such
intelligent systems as genetic programming and artificial neural network methods are used in hydrological processes modeling and water
engineering. These methods are known as valid methods to model the complex nonlinear processes. These methods can accurately estimate
(ET0) using the data recorded at meteorological stations. Evapotranspiration is essentially a complex and nonlinear process. Hence artificial
neural networks and genetic programming as novel methods with high reliability in modeling complex and nonlinear processes can be used for
modeling evapotranspiration process. Artificial neural networks are considered as black box techniques, which establish a relationship between
input and output data regardless of the physical processes governing the system. In recent years, artificial neural networks have been used in
various sectors of water engineering. Considering the continuous development trend, intelligent models of genetic programming are considered
as efficient tools to model water engineering processes. Many studies investigated modeling of evapotranspiration in abroad and within country.
Kouchakzadeh and Bahmani [4] examined artificial neural network performance in reducing the required parameters used in calculating the
(ET0) in Mehrabad Region in Tehran. Zanetti et al. [5] estimated evapotranspiration using meteorological data in Argentine with artificial neural
networks. Kisi and Ozturk [6] estimated evapotranspiration using FAO-Penman-Monteith method with Artificial Neural Fuzzy Inference System
(ANFIS). Rahimi Khoob [7] estimated evapotranspiration with high precision using data from meteorological stations in Khuzestan Region in
Iran with artificial neural network methods. Mogadamnia et al. [8] used artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy inference system to model
daily evaporation in Chahnime Region located in Sistan and Baluchestan Province. They finally stated that neural network could more precisely
predict the evaporation than empirical models and neural-inference system Fuzzy system. Piri et al. [9] estimated evapotranspiration for hot and
dry areas using artificial neural networks. Assari et al. [10] estimated (ET0) using artificial neural networks in greenhouse conditions. Sayyadi et
al. [11] examined the performance of two types of artificial neural network models for estimating (ET0) in Tabriz. Ghabaei Sough et al. [12]
estimated evapotranspiration in daily scale using data from synoptic meteorological stations in Shiraz with artificial neural networks. Several
researchers also used genetic programming to estimate evapotranspiration. Guven et al. [13] estimated (ET0) in California Region in America
using genetic programming. They compared genetic programming results with the observed data and showed that the former has high precision
in estimating ET0. Kisi and Guven [14] used different combinations of meteorological parameters for California Data and used artificial neural
networks and linear genetic programming method to model (ET0). Terzi [15] used genetic programming to estimate daily evapotranspiration
from free water surface level in Egirdir Lake in Turkey. Samadian et al. [16] considered 30 different scenarios and used genetic programming
method to predict reference crop potential evapotranspiration in Tabriz Region. They compared the obtained results using the former method
with Hargreaves and Jensen - Hayes experimental model results. They concluded that reference crop potential evapotranspiration could be

Bahram Esmaeilzadeh *, Mohammad Taghi Sattari

36

Agriculture Science Developments Vol(4), No (3), March, 2015.

predicted with acceptable precision using genetic programming with air temperature and wind speed data. Shiri and Kisi [17] used intelligent
neural network, neural fuzzy inference system and genetic programming methods to estimate and compare daily evaporation in pans. Sattari et
al. [18] used two methods of artificial neural networks and M5 tree model to predict daily (ET0) in Bonab region, northwest of Iran. They
concluded that artificial neural networks provide more accurate results compared to M5 tree model. The present study aimed to model and
compare monthly (ET0) using such intelligent systems as neural networks and genetic programming in Tabriz. In this study, different scenarios
in relation to effective combination of meteorological parameters such as temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, sunshine
hours, etc. are provided as input to the model in order to calculate evapotranspiration. The best scenarios with the minimum number of
parameters for more accurate prediction of monthly evapotranspiration are selected.

2.

Materials and Methods

2.1 Artificial Neural Networks

These networks mimic the neural network in living organisms, which perform the necessary calculations with a huge number of interconnected
artificial neurons. A neural network consists of several neurons or calculator nodes. These nodes can produce appropriate outputs compatible
with weighted inputs using conversion functions. Each layer may be formed from several nerves. Each artificial neural network consists of one
or several interconnected layers. A three-layer network structurally consists of an input layer I, a hidden layer H, and an output layer O as shown
in Figure 1. Neuro Solutions 5 software is used to model artificial neural network in this research.

Input layer

Hidden layer

Output layer

Figure 1. Sample Structure of an Artificial Neural Network

2.2 Genetic Programming

Genetic programming is an integrated genetic algorithm, which was developed by John Koza [19] for the first time based on Darwin Theory.
Genetic programming is an automatic programming technique, which provides solutions to the problem using the computer program. In this
method, no functional relationship was considered at the beginning of the process. This method can optimize the model structure and
components. Genetic programming unlike genetic algorithms operates on a tree structure of formulas instead of a series of binary digits. Tree
structures consist of a set of functions (arithmetic operators used in formulas) and terminals (variables in the problem and constants).
Before performing genetic programming, the following preparatory steps should be determined by the user.
1. Set of terminals (variables in the problem, random constants)
2. Sets of mathematical operators used in formulas
3. Selecting an appropriate fitness function (Root relative Square Error, Mean Square Error, Correlation Coefficient, etc.) to assess the fit
formulas
4. Determining program controller parameters (population size, probabilities of applying genetic actions and other details of relevant to
the program)
5. The end criteria and providing the results of the program (such as the number of producing a new population, determining certain
parameters to fit the formulas, if the fit was equal to or greater than the certain parameter, the program is stopped Soltani et al. [20]
Stepwise implementation of genetic programming is as follows
1. Producing an initial population of formulas consisting of a random combination of a set of functions (arithmetic operators used in
formulas) and terminals (variables in the problem and constants)
2. Each individual in the population is examined using the fitness functions
3. Producing a new population of formulas,
The following steps are considered for this purpose to generate a new population
A) A crossover, mutation and reproduction is selected (these three genetic operations are considered as the most important genetic
operations used in genetic programming. Other genetic actions such as structure modification are less likely used
B) An appropriate number of the individuals within the population are selected (selecting an individual or individuals in the
population is a probability in which the best-fit in dividuals are preferred to inferior individuals. This does not mean that that
definitely inferior individuals are eliminated)
C) A selected genetic operation is selected to produce offspring (new formula)
D) Offspring (new formula) produced in a new population is entered
E) The desired model is evaluated using a fitness function
4. The third step is repeated to achieve maximum production (Soltani et al.) [20].
GeneXpro Tools 4.0 software was used in order to apply genetic programming techniques on data in this study.
2.3 FAO-Penman-Monteith Method
Many researchers around the world introduced FAO-Penman-Monteith methods the most accurate method to estimate (ET0), which is currently
the basis of water requirement calculations. This method is theoretically based on energy balance on a wet vegetationsurface.ET0 refers to
reference water requirement or water requirement of a given plant in FAO-Penman-Monteith equation. Although the given plant resemble to
grass, the former is not considered as grass. FAO Penman Monteith Equation is shown in Equation 1. In this equation, ET0 refers to (ET0), Rn

37

Monthly evapotranspiration modeling using intelligent systems in Tabriz, Iran

Agriculture Science Developments Vol(4), No (3), March, 2015.

denotes net radiation at the surface vegetation, T refers to mean air temperature at a height of two meters above ground level, U2 denotes
average wind speed at a height of two meters above ground leveles-earefers to vapor pressure deficit at the height of two meters, denotes the
slope of vapor pressure curve, G refers to the heat flux into the soil and denotes moisture ratio (Allen et al.) [1].
890
]U 2 (es ea )
T 273
(1 0.34U 2 )

0.408 ( Rn G ) [
ET0

3.

(1)

Introducing the study area and data used

Tabriz is the capital of Eastern Azerbaijan located in the West of the province in the Far East and South of Tabriz Plain. The city is located at l46
degrees, 26-minute longitude, and 38 degrees and 6 minutes latitude with an altitude of 1350 m to 1550 m above sea level. Tabriz City is
restricted from the North, South and East to the mountains and from the West to flat lands and salt marshes in Talkherood. Tabriz City's
geographical location is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Geographical location of Tabriz city

In this study, data from 19 years from January 1982 to October 2000 (75% of the data) was selected as training data while data from 7 years
from November 2000 to December 2006 (25% of the data) was selected as testing data. Performance of the models used in this study is
evaluated based on calculating the root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (R 2). The formulas for calculation of the above
parameters are shown in the equations 2 and 3.

2
R

( X i X )(Yi Y )

i 1

N
N
2
2
(
X

X
)
*
(
Y

Y
)

i
i

i 1
i 1

(2)

(y
RMSE

xi ) 2

i 1

(3)

The statistical properties of the data used in this study are presented in Table 1. According to nature of the problem, various scenarios of input,
hidden and output layers were introduced for artificial neural network in this study. After implementation of the model, the model prediction
accuracy was examined based on such statistics as RMSE and R2.

4.

Results and discussion

To determine the best combination, 13 different scenarios of combinations of input data were entered to the neural network models. These
scenarios and the results for each scenario based on two statistics such as RMSE and R2are shown in Table 2. Monthly numbers from 1 to 12
were considered as monthly indices in order to consider the impact of each month in modelling artificial neural network. In this section,
hyperbolic tangent function was considered as the stimulus function while momentum learning rule was used to rapidly converge the network.
As Table 2 shows, Scenario 6 with six input parameters (with four hidden layers) delivered the best results (R2=0.992, RMSE=0.053), which is
considered as the best scenario for introduction to genetic programming model. The results relevant to the observed values of (ET0) obtained
from the artificial neural network model, genetic programming in contrast to the values obtained using FAO-Penman-Monteith equation for the
input parameter in Scenario 6 are respectively shown in Figures 3 and 4.

Bahram Esmaeilzadeh *, Mohammad Taghi Sattari

38

Agriculture Science Developments Vol(4), No (3), March, 2015.

Table 1. statistical properties of the data used

MinT
( C)
7.75
8.98
31.00
-12.62

Statistics
Mean
Standard deviation
Max
Min

MaxT
( C)
18.63
10.91
35.76
-3.55

SunH
(hr)
236.05
83.93
379.50
51.80

Wind 2
(m/s)
3.00
1.91
31.00
0.78

Minimum relative
humidity (%)
34.56
14.56
75.48
12.17

Maximum relative
humidity (%)
69.50
13.73
94.16
31.00

Precipitation
(mm)
20.98
21.33
123.40
0.00

Evapotranspiration
FPM (mm)
25.11
18.32
65.85
2.03

Table 2. Results of Artificial Neural Network Model in different scenarios of combination of input parameters
Scenarios

Input parameters
The monthly index, AvT, MinT, MaxT, Precipitation, AvH, MinH, MaxH, Wind 2, SunH
The monthly index, AvT, MinT, MaxT, AvH, MinH, MaxH, Wind 2, SunH
The monthly index, AvT, MinT, MaxT, MinH, MaxH, Wind 2, SunH
The monthly index, MinT, MaxT, MinH, MaxH, Wind 2, SunH
The monthly index, MinT, MaxT, Precipitation, AvH, Wind 2, SunH
The monthly index, AvT, MinH, MaxH, Wind 2, SunH
The monthly index, MinT, MaxT, MaxH, MinH
The monthly index, MinT, MaxT, Wind 2
The monthly index, MinT, MaxT, SunH
The monthly index, MinT, MaxT, precipitation
The monthly index, MinT, MaxT, AvH
The monthly index, MinT, MaxT
The monthly index, AvT

Y = 0.9792X + 0.9414
R = 0.96

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

70
GP ET0 (mm)

GP ET0 (mm)

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13

R2

RMSE
(mm)

0.992
0.986
0.990
0.984
0.990
0.992
0.960
0.992
0.990
0.964
0.956
0.968
0.956

0.057
0.070
0.063
0.077
0.063
0.053
0.122
0.057
0.063
0.114
0.126
0.105
0.126

Y = 0.9799X + 0.4859
R = 0.99

60
50
40
30
20
10

20

40

60

80

FPM ET0 (mm)

20

40

60

80

FPM ET0 (mm)

Figure 4. computational and observational values of

(ET0) in genetic programming model

Figure 3. computational and observed values of

(ET0) in artificial neural network

High values of R2 in these figures show high power of the models in predicting (ET0) in the study area. Figure 5 also shows high similarity
between three methods of ANN (artificial neural network), genetic programming and FAO Penman equation for testing data.
Various statistics were used to compare the performance of neural network and genetic programming methods. Table 3 shows values of these
parameters for three methods of FAO-Penman-Monteith, artificial neural networks, genetic programming using testing data in Scenario 6.
70

ET0 (mm)

60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1

9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73
Month

Figure 5. Comparison of the results relevant to different methods in calculating (ET0)

39

Monthly evapotranspiration modeling using intelligent systems in Tabriz, Iran

Agriculture Science Developments Vol(4), No (3), March, 2015.

Table 3. Characteristics of the statistical results obtained from different methods of calculating (ET0) for testing data
Statistics

FAO-PenmanMonteith

Mean
Standard deviation
Min
Max
Correlated with one lag delay

25.50
18.89
2.93
62.48
0.793

Artificial neural
networks

Genetic
programming

25.48
18.59
2.88
59.47
0.784

25.91
18.89
1.99
70.71
0.785

As shown in Table 3, the results from both models fit well with the observed data (obtained from FAO-Penman-Monteith method). The equation
and function of genetic programming is shown in Equation 6.

ET

SunH

MaxH MinH 7.306

AvT -

AvT
AvT 3
SunH - AvT MinH
MinH
6.077 Wind 2. MaxH

(6)

In the above relation, SunH refers to sunshine hours, MaxH denotes maximum relative humidity, MinH refers to minimum relative humidity,
AvT denotes average temperature, Wind2 refers to wind speed at a height of 2 m above the ground. R2 and RMSE values for comparison of both
artificial neural networks and genetic programming methods are shown in Table 4. According to these results, it can be observed that artificial
neural network and genetic programming techniques can predict the potential evapotranspiration with high and ideal precision in meteorological
station in Tabriz.
Table 4. Results obtained from three different methods for calculating (ET0) in the 6. scenario
Method
ANN
GP

5.

R2
0.99
0.96

RMSE (mm)
1.69
3.84

Conclusion

In this study, data from meteorological station in Tabriz was used as input to predict monthly (ET0) using the artificial neural network and
genetic programming methods. The results from various scenarios in both models indicated that a scenario in which the model inputs include
average temperature, minimum and maximum relative humidity, wind speed, sunshine hours and the desired month deliver acceptable and high
precision. Due to the high value of the correlation coefficient obtained from ANN and genetic programming methods, it is concluded that both
methods estimate monthly (ET0) with high precision. Although genetic programming method is slightly less precise than neural network method
in estimating daily evapotranspiration, the former can be introduced as a competitive alternative to artificial neural networks in terms of
providing a mathematical relationship (Sayyadi et al.) [11]. Using data from the meteorological station of Tabriz, monthly (ET0) was estimated
with acceptable precision (R2=0.88) using the networks with radial basis function (RBF) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) networks. The
precision value obtained by the two methods is much higher than 0.88 in this study. Analysis of multiple scenarios showed that monthly index
improved the results in modeling (ET0) with artificial neural networks in contrast to perspiration. The latter had no tangible impact on
calculation of (ET0).

Acknowledgement
This project was performed with funds provided in the research budget of the Islamic Azad University of Tabriz, and the researchers conducting
the project would like to use this opportunity to express their gratitude and appreciation to university officials who supported them in carrying
out this study

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