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University of Melbourne

Department of Economics
ECON10003 Introductory Macroeconomics
Semester 2, 2015
Assignment 1

In this assignment, you will be asked to consider two questions. The assignment is
worth 10% of your overall mark for this subject.
These questions are designed to assess your knowledge and understanding of both
national accounts and the economic indicators which professional economists
working for banks, stockbroking firms, the public service and the media refer to and
use on a daily basis. It is a research assignment with a very practical relevance.
The assignment is due by 4pm, Wednesday August 19.

Using the Assignment Tool


You MUST submit your assignment in electronic format to the FBE Student Centre
via the Assignment Submission Tool. You can access the Assignment Submission
Tool by clicking on Assignment Tool in the navigation menu from the LMS page for
this subject.
Please note that you will be required to submit these in electronic form via the
assignment submission system by 4pm on the due date. The following details are
very important:

It is important that you keep a copy of your assignment

Plagiarism or other forms of academic dishonesty will result in


discipline proceedings being brought against you.

Do not email your assignment to your tutor.

Plagiarism and Collusion


Presenting material from other sources without full acknowledgement (referred to as
plagiarism) is heavily penalised. Penalties for plagiarism can include a mark of zero
for the piece of assessment or a fail grade for the subject.
Plagiarism is the presentation by a student of an assignment identified as his or her
own work even though it has been copied in whole or in part from another students
work, or from any other source (eg. published books, web-based materials or
periodicals), without due acknowledgement in the text.
Collusion is the presentation by a student of an assignment as his or her own work
when it is, in fact, the result (in whole or in part) of unauthorised collaboration with
another person or persons. Both the student presenting the assignment and the
student(s) willingly supplying unauthorised material are considered participants in the
act of academic misconduct.
The CELT has developed a web-based Academic Honesty Module that allows you
to learn more about and test your knowledge of plagiarism and collusion. You are
strongly encouraged to complete this module, which can be accessed at:
http://fbe.unimelb.edu.au/celt/tools/faculty_guidelines/plagiarism_and_academic_hon
esty

Late Submission
Late submissions must be requested from the FBE Student Centre, NOT the lecturer
or tutor. Late assignments, where approval for late submission has not been
given, will be penalised at the rate of 10% of the total mark per day, for up to 5
days, at which time a mark of zero will be given. For details see:
http://fbe.unimelb.edu.au/csc/assistance/assignment_extension

Referencing
All sources used for a written piece of assessment must be referenced. This is to
acknowledge that your material is not based entirely on your own ideas, but is
based, in part, on the ideas, information, and evidence of others. This is desirable as
you are attending University in order to learn from others.
You will be required to use the APA system or Harvard System of referencing.
Assistance in using these (and other) styles of referencing can be found using the
link:
http://library.unimelb.edu.au/cite

It is important that all material you present for assessment is referenced correctly.
Failure to reference or to reference properly will result in a significant penalty
in terms of the mark awarded to your assignment.
We will also look for evidence that material included in the bibliography has been
used in the assignment. Including references that have not been used may also
result in your assignment being penalised.

The Assignment
USE NO MORE THAN 1000 WORDS (EXCLUDING FOOTNOTES, TABLES AND
BIBLIOGRAPHY).
ANSWER BOTH QUESTIONS.

Question 1 (1 + 1 + 1 = 3 marks)
a. (1 mark) Using the published national accounts for Australia and the United
States for the period March quarter 2015, compare and contrast the behaviour
of economic growth in these two countries. You should consider the year to
the March quarter 2015 (that is, March quarter 2014 to March quarter 2015),
and the three month period to the March quarter 2015 (that is, December
quarter 2014 to March quarter 2015).
So, comparing these two economies, what was the rate of growth of real GDP
in each of these two periods? Use seasonally adjusted data.

b. (1 mark) Which components of expenditure grew at the highest and


lowest rates and which contributed the most and the least to GDP growth in
each of the two economies for the period December quarter 2014 to the
March quarter 2015. Provide the values in tabular form.
In answering part (b) you should look at the following expenditure categories
for Australia: Final consumption expenditure, distinguishing Household
from General Government, Total Gross Fixed Capital Formation,
distinguishing Total Private Gross Fixed Capital Formation from Total Public
Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Exports and Imports (or Net Exports).
(Gross Fixed Capital Formation means Investment expenditure.
For the United States the closest equivalent expenditure categories that you
should consider are designated as: Personal Consumption Expenditures,
3

Gross Private Domestic Investment, Net Exports of Goods and Services


(separated as Exports and as Imports), Government Consumption
Expenditures and Gross Investment, and Change in Private Inventories.
There is no need to disaggregate within any of these categories and consider
the smaller, narrower categories of expenditure which are given in the tables.

c. (1 mark) Using Tables 16 and 17 of the Australian National Accounts,


determine which are the largest and second largest industry sectors in the
Australian economy in the March quarter 2015.
Which industry sector experienced the highest rate of growth in the twelve
months March quarter 2014 March quarter 2015?
(In answering this question you need only consider the aggregate industry
sectors marked A, B, C. Etc. Do not disaggregate within each of these
sectors.)

Links:
United States:
To obtain the revised data for the March (first) quarter for the United States,
use the first (advance) release for the June (second) quarter 2015.
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2015/pdf/gdp2q15_adv.pdf
Australia:
http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/meisubs.nsf/0/F03A46CF7EE15E38
CA257E5800149ABF/$File/52060_mar%202015.pdf

AND
Question 2 (7 marks)
Now read the slides titled Economic Indicators. First, you should understand
the nature and use of economic indicators.
Then, choose three different leading indicators for the Australian economy
and use them to determine what they suggest about the performance of the
Australian economy for the next twelve months.

Now locate the same indicators (or very similar indicators), for the United
States.
(All relevant indicators are available from the internet).
Compare and contrast the behaviour of the indicators for the United States
with those for the Australian economy.
In particular do they suggest that the two economies are likely to
experience a similar or a different economic performance for the next
twelve months in terms of the growth of real GDP?

This is a research assignment and marks will be awarded for:


(1) The sources of data that you find and the proper citation and use of these
sources.
(2) The presentation of the correct data from these sources.
(3) The quality of the analysis you provide using these data.
(4) The overall standard of presentation of the assignment.

You should give attention to the following issues:

Have I reported all relevant data in a series of clear and easily interpreted
tables that I have constructed myself? I should not have just copied and
pasted large slabs of data from the sources used.
Would it be helpful to the reader to provide some of the data as charts?
Have I located and referred to the most recent release of the leading
indicators?
Have I explained why each indicator I have selected is likely to be a leading
indicator? Have I discovered and referred to any authority for my choice of
these indicators?
Have I demonstrated an understanding of the need to evaluate these most
recent observations in the light of their recent past behaviour, such as twelve
months ago or earlier this year?
Does my evaluation of the leading indicators for each country provide for a
clear conclusion about the two economies over the next twelve months? If
not, why not?

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