STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR MULTY-PATH TRIP ASSIGNMENT WITH

CONSIDERING DIVERGE PERCEIVED TRAVEL COST

R Didin Kusdian Prof. Ir. Ofyar Z. Tamin, MSc.,PhD.

SAPPK-ITBDoctoral Program Graduated Post Graduate Program
Lecturer of Universitas Sangga Buana-YPKP Institute Technology of Bandung (ITB)
Jl. PH. Mustopa 68 Bandung-Indonesia Jl Tamansari 64 Bandung - Indonesia
e-mail : kusdian@yahoo.com e-mail: ofyar@trans.si.itb.ac.id

Prof. Dr. Ir. Agus Salim Ridwan, MSc
Transportation Post Graduate Program
School of Architecture Planning and
Policy Development (SAPPK)-ITB
Jl. Ganesha 10 Bandung- Indonesia
Ir. Ade Syafruddin, MSc., PhD.
Transportation Laboratory
Civil Engineering Study Program ITB
Labtek I 2nd Floor
Jl. Ganesha 10 Bandung- Indonesia
e-mail: ades@trans.si.itb.ac.id

Abstract

New idea added in this research and have been considered inside perceived cost diverge
modelling, that was perceived cost also influenced with the distance of journey. More long
the distance more wide the uncertainty distribution of travel perceived cost. To model this
phenomenon the travel perceived cost generated not only by using single distribution function
as an approach effort, this reserach use three distribution with gradual dispersion parameter.
This idea derived and aplicated in hypotetical road network assignment analysis. Experiment
result showed that with assumed that there are four segment of travel cost perception for all
origin-destination pair in the network will appear diverge chosen route which could be
different with one best route as the result of the assumption that there is no diverge perception
among the traveller about the travel cost of all pair of origin-destination inside the network.

Keywords : diverge travel perceived cost, normal distribution, distance base distribution,
route choice pattern.

1. Introduction

Transport demand is lean to increase, this happened in Indonesia, especially at urban area.
Transport will be necessity for more people, in compliance with population and vehicle
amount growth. In urban area transport intensity relatively higher in compare with in rural
area which lower in population density.

Urban transport study need modelling to predict movement. The movement wahat is meant in
this case are people movement and/or fright movement. With use vehicle on the movement
lane from origin to destination. At any time interval the movement that have been predicted
will take place at once on each links inside the network.

In that time interval the movement that happen on each link can be expressed with link’s
volume. On planning work in the context of future time it traffic volume determined from
estimation result that use modeling including traffic assignment model. This traffic volume
estimating is very useful for transport network system planning and traffic management.

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Planning has the nature of anticipating toward any possibility that can be happen in future, in
the short time horizon, middle time horizon and long time horizon. Research development
about route choice modeling has the important role in transport modeling for use in effective
and efficient transport system planning.

Urban transport system study need the arrangement of calculating procedure for analyze the
relation among transport demand and transport system supply. From the demand side will
necessary the estimation of movement amount and it spatial distribution pattern, this can be
derived from perception behavior distribution. Supply side is including physical properties
and spatial distribution of transport network especially in surface transport network for
example highway, road and street network. The study should be done in that both side
simultaneously.

As a detail part of modeling and calculating procedure in demand-supply study of transport its
should be include travel cost modeling. Travel cost strongly influence by each travelers
perception. It will need particular study to derive travel cost formula, which can be used for
system base transport demand-supply study. Travel cost formulation study will be better if
including with perception factor that actually occur in reality.

2. Route Choice Stochastic Model

In ‘all-or-nothing’ route choice approach, travelers rationally choose shortest route, which
minimize transport impedance (distance, time, and cost). All travelers between origin and
destination zone use one same route following the assumption that travelers know it fastest
route. In another word, travelers know about shortest route which minimizing travel time and
all of them use it route, no one use another route. All-or-nothing assignment result only one
route assigned with traffic flow, for each origin-destination pair (Tamin, 2000).

Route choice could be modelled with considering stochastic effect, that there are perception
diverge possibility among travellers. Monte Carlo simulation technic can represent driver
perception diverge about travel cost (travel time) for each links, as the development effort of
Burrel Model. Basically, the development of Burrel Model is starting with try to treat
differently beetween objective and perception cost. Objective cost is the cost from observer or
modeller view or determined by them, and than treated as mean value of perception cost
which distributed among travellers. So perceived cost behaviour can be drawn with use
probability distribution function (Ortuzar, 1994; Tamin, 2000).

3. Route Choice Stochastic Model Development

Route choice model which considering travel cost diverge can be derived with use distribution
function for generate perceived cost values from objective cost value that treated as mean
value of perceived costs. The form of distribution can be adapted according the prior
observation of perception data or follow some assumption, for example use uniform
distribution or normal distribution (Kusdian et al., 2005)

Each traveller is possible has any different way in their view about travel cost between origin
and destination. Among this diverge, then be grouped become N segments, where inside one

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segment be assumed have same perception, while among segments are different. This
segment formation will usefull for analysis purpose in estimating traffic load amounts which
use each links inside the network.

Additional consideration which became the specific characterictic of this research is that
perception diverge pattern which drawn by distribution function as perception distribution
model, influence by travel distance. Shorter travel distance cost will easier to predict for more
people and more people will use these short travel distance. The longer travel distance the
more dificult to predict it distance or travel cost, so among peoples there is prediction diverge.
This prediction diverge can appear cause of perception diverge. The longer travel distance the
more spread perception diverge about travel cost.

This distance base perception diverge than modelled so that it possible to be numerically
analyzed. The technic used in this case is modelled it in probability distribution fuctions with
dispersion gradation. Dispersion coded as percentage from mean value, spread to the left and
right from it, so than distribution is drawn. Mean value of perceive travel cost is objective
travel cost value or travel cost value (of link or route) in modeller view.

Link objective travel cost is counted with add fuel cost, travel time cost, and toll cost. For not
link cost, toll cost is zero. Travel time cost is travel time multiply by travel time value, where
travel time value is some factor for converse time to cost unit or money. In this research travel
time value approached with work time value of auto user who became the survey respondent,
that is average income per month divide by work time per month.

For the analysis of route choice inside the network, travel cost between each origin-
destination pair is counted by adding all passed links cost, where in numerical process it done
with limiting passed links amount. Shortest path choice process is executed with use Dijksta
algorithm (Bell and Iida, 1997).
Application of travel cost perception diverge reality was proceed by means of perception
diverge about links traverse cost. Links inside the network divided in to three groups: short,
middle and far or long. Perception diverge is drawn from objective cost and dispersion
parameters in percentage of objective cost.

In this case the objective cost is assumed as the mean value of perceived cost, where the
perceived cost is distributed person perception cost about each links. First, for the group of
short distance links, dispersion parameter is zero, this mean that travelers have the same
perception about travel cost of these links. Second, for the middle distance links, dispersion
parameter treat as 15% from objective value, and third for the long distance group of links
dispersion parameter is 30% from objective value. Distribution function that used in this
research is normal distribution. Each perception distribution divided to be four segments of
perceptions each segment will have different perceived cost. Chosen route inside network
searched by travel cost minimizing for each origin zone to all destination zone. Counting
cycle of route searching behave for each perception segments.

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 Travelers

μ μ μ Perceived Travel Cost

Short distance Middle distance Long distance

Figure 1 Distance Base Perceived Cost Distribution Model

Figure 2 will describe the mapping of previous and recent model, in order to explain the
unique of the model discussed in this paper.

Route Choice and Trip

Assignment Model

Without consider With consider capacity

capacity constrain constrain

Same Different perceived

perceived links cost
links cost

Single distribution Multi distribution perceived

perceived links cost links cost
All –or -
nothing
Burrell’s Model The distribution function
parameter of link perceived
cost are depend on link cost
value

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4. Model Algorithm

Furthermore stochastic route choice development concept could be implemented in the

following algorithm:
1. From one origin zone to all destination zone inside the network: determine travel cost
for each links, than determine the cheapest travel cost for each origin-destination pairs
with assumed that travel cost perception are same (approached with same links travel
cost for all peoples, there is no perception distribution)
2. Divide the travel distance from origin zone to all destination zone inside the network
to be three groups, those are short distances, middle distances and long distances with
the method as follows: find shortest distance or cheapest cost; find longest distance or
most expensive cost; determine the interval between shortest and longest then divide it
to be same three parts. Determine the limit or boundary between middle distance
group and long distance group, that is the upper limit of short distance group add again
with one part of interval.

With the result that there are three condition:

1. If travel cost more than or equal with shortest travel cost and less than shortest travel
cost add by one part of interval, then it travel will grouped inside short travel group.
The distance or cost of this group is easy to predict for all people, the perception of all
people about it distance of cost are tend to be the same and no perception distribution.
2. If travel cost more than or equal with shortest or cheapest travel cost add by one part
of interval and less than shortest or cheapest travel cost add by two part of interval,
then these travel will treated as middle group travel. Prediction of travel cost and
cheapest cost among traveler can be difficult. For this group perception diverge pattern
is assumed be follow a distribution function with a dispersion parameter which less
than for long travel cost group. For example the dispersion parameter is 15% from
mean value and drawn by normal distribution.
3. If travel cost more than or equal with cheapest travel cost add by two part of interval
and less than longest or most expensive cost, then these travel will grouped into long
or expensive travel group. For this group, perception toward travel cost assumed be
follow and can be drawn by normal distribution with more spread dispersion than two
groups before. Consistently according to the concept explained above that the longer
travel the more wide spread of perception diverge. In this research for long travel
group used dispersion parameter of 30% from mean value.
To gererate perceived travel cost perception distribution from mean value of perceived travel
cost which known as objective cost, can be done by use standard normal distribution (with
mean value equal to zero μ = 1 and standard deviation equal to one σ = 1). It can be
applicated with use box-muller transformation as describe by formula (1). (Kusdian et.al.,
2005).

s = ((−2 ln( R1 ))1 / 2 . cos 2πR2 (1)

With R1 and R2 are two random number from uniformly distribution random number in
interval (0,1), and s is sample obtained or desired from standard normal distribution.

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Further more the result of this transformation formula s can be used for take random sample c
from a normal distributed of random variable C with mean value c and certain standard
deviation ( σ = pc ), by formula (2).

c =σ ⋅s +c (2)

In the usage of standard normal distribution for generate travel perceived cost, with use 4
segments of perception division, cost value of each perception segment can be generated pass
through normal random number for first segment until fourth segment in succession: s ≤ −1 ,
− 1 < s ≤ 0 , 0 < s ≤ 1 , and s > 1. Each with traffic load portion: 15.87%, 33.47%, 33.47% and
15.87 % respectively.

5. Model Experiments
The first stage of model implementation is to code the algorithm into computer program, this
research use the coding with FORTRAN language. Further stage is testing the program of
stochastic route choice with travel distance consideration perception distribution model, to
determine route choice pattern in hypothetical network as shown in Figure 2. This networks
contents of 13 nodes, 18 links and 4 zones.

1 5 2 6 3 2
1 4

4 8 4
10 6
8
7 3
8 5

5 7 8
4
3
5
9 10 10 11

2 2 12
2 3
13
4
Figure 3 Road Networks Geometric Data
The cost of each links, in this case the basic cost is distance in kilometers, are as included in
Figure 3.

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6. Experiment Results and Analysis

Firstly, model run with assummed same travel cost perception for all traveller in viewing all
links inside the network without considering the diverge of link distances, with use Dijkstra
algorithm, the result is as shown in Figure 4. Secondly, model run wirh 4 segments
perception division in this stochastic route choice development, where perceive travel cost is
generated with diverge distribution for different group of link distance (short, middle, and
long), while for determine the cheapest or shortest path is used the same Dijkstra algorithm, it
is obtained 4 route pattern for each travel from one origin zone to all destination zone ( In first
model run that assummed same perception travel cost there is only 1 route pattern for each
travel from one origin zone to all destination zone). The route choice pattern as the results of
experiment with stochastic route choice with considering travel distance are shown in Figure
5,6,7 and 8.
1 2 3 1 2 3
4 4
1 1

6 6
8 8
3 3

5 7 5 7

9 10 9 10 11
12 2 12
2

13 13

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a. Tree from Zone 1 to Zone 2,3 and 4 4 b. Tree from Zone 2 to Zone 1,3 and 4
Same Perception of travel cost (all-or-nothing) Same Perception of travel cost (all-or-nothing)

1 2 3 1 2 3
4 4
1 1

6 6
8 8
3 3

5 7 5 7

9 10 11 9 10 11
12 12
2 2

13 13

c. Tree from Zone 3 to Zone 1,2 and 4 4 d. Tree from Zone 4 to Zone 1,2 and 3 4
Same Perception of travel cost (all-or-nothing) Same Perception of travel cost (all-or-nothing)

Figure 4 Chosen Route Pattern From Each Zone To All Zones

For Same Perception of Travel Costs
( all-or-nothing)

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 1 2 3
4 1 2 3
1 4
1
6
8 6
3 8
3

5 7
5 7

9 10 11
2 12 9 10 11
12
2
13
13
1st Perception Segment 4
4
From Zone 1 To Zone 2, 3 and 4 2nd Perception Segment
From Zone 1 To Zone 2, 3 and 4
1 2 3 1 2 3
4 4
1 1
6 6
8 8
3 3

5 7 5 7

9 10 11 9 10 11
12 12
2 2
13 13

3rd Perception Segment 4 4th Perception Segment 4

From Zone 1 To Zone 2, 3 and 4 From Zone 1 To Zone 2, 3 and 4

Figure 5 Trees From Zone 1 to Zones 2, 3 and 4

Travel Cost Perception Distribution
With Considering Travel Distances Model

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 1 2 3 1 2 3
4 4
1 1

6 6
8 8
3 3

5 7 5 7

9 10 11 9 10 11

2 12 2 12

13 13

4 4
st nd
1 Perception Segment 2 Perception Segment
From Zone 1 To Zone 2, 3 and 4 From Zone 1 To Zone 2, 3 and 4

1 2 3 1 2 3
4 4
1 1

6 6
8 8
3 3

5 7 5 7

9 10 11 9 10 11

2 12 2 12

13 13

4 4
rd th
3 Perception Segment 4 Perception Segment
From Zone 1 To Zone 2, 3 and 4 From Zone 1 To Zone 2, 3 and 4

Figure 6 Trees From Zone 2 To Zones 1, 3 and 4

Travel Cost Perception Distribution With Considering Travel Distances Model

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 1 2 3
4 1 2 3
1 4
1
6
8 6
3 8
3

5 7
5 7

9 10 11
2 12 9 10 11
12
2
13
13
1st Perception Segment 4
nd 4
From Zone 1 To Zone 2, 3 and 4 2 Perception Segment
From Zone 1 To Zone 2, 3 and 4

1 2 3 1 2 3
4 4
1
1
6 6
8 8
3
3

5 7 5 7

9 10 11 9 10 11
12 12
2
2
13 13

rd
3 Perception Segment 4 4rt Perception Segment
4
From Zone 1 To Zone 2, 3 and 4 From Zone 1 To Zone 2, 3 and 4

Figure 7 Trees From Zone 3 To Zones 1, 2 and 4

Travel Cost Perception Distribution With Considering Travel Distances Model

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 1 2 3 1 2 3
4 4
1 1
6 6
8 8
3 3

5 7 5 7

9 10 11 9 10 11
12 12
2 2
13 13

st
1 Perception Segment 4 nd
2 Perception Segment 4
From Zone 1 To Zone 2, 3 and 4 From Zone 1 To Zone 2, 3 and 4

1 2 3 1 2 3
4 4
1 1
6 6
8 8
3 3

5 7 5 7

9 10 11 9 10 11
12 12
2 2
13 13

rd
3 Perception Segment 4 4rt Perception Segment 4
From Zone 1 To Zone 2, 3 and 4 From Zone 1 To Zone 2, 3 and 4

Figure 8 Trees From Zone 4 To Zones 1, 2 and 3

Travel Cost Perception Distribution
With Considering Travel Distances Model

All-Or-Nothing Assignment
If the assignment process uses the assumption same perceived travel cost among traveler then
for each origin zone to all destination zones there is only one cost perception and only one
chosen route for each origin-destination pairs.

Assignment of 4 Segments Normal Distribution

By approach travel cost perception to became 4 segments of perception which each segment
has the event probability as equal to the area under standard normal distribution curve, with
the boundary value of perceived cost generator (from standard normal distribution curve) s ,
as described in part 5 above.

Load portion of each segment is event probability value of each segment multiply by transport
demand amount for each origin-destination pairs.

Analysis of Model Experiment Results

For comparison analysis purpose, this research have done too the experiment for stochastic
route choice model without considering travel distance diverge, that is with only one
distribution for all length of travel. The distribution function have been used is uniform
distribution and normal distribution, each with given two dispersion parameters, those are
15% and 30% from mean value.

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Perceived travel cost modeling with use normal distribution with dispersion parameter of 15%
and 30% of mean value produced result the same minimum cost route tree pattern for
calculating experiment with 4 segments division in hypothetic network. But it was different
with chosen route pattern, which resulted by without travel cost perception distribution model
(all-or-nothing).

While if use the assumption that travel cost perception is following uniform distribution
model with dispersion parameter of 15% and 30% from mean value. The route choice pattern
is different with all-or-nothing model result that is in minimum cost route tree for first-
segment from zone-3.

The experiment result of model with considering the travel cost perception diverge which
influenced by travel distance, chosen route pattern in hypothetical network for first-segment is
the same with normal distributed perceived cost, while chosen route pattern for second-
segment from all zone, third-segment from all zone, and fourth-segment from all zone-1,2 and
3 are different compared with chosen route pattern of normal distributed model, uniform
distributed model and all-or-nothing (non distributed) model. For fourth-segment chosen route
is the same with normal distributed model result.

7. Conclusions
From experiment results and it analysis it can be resumed the conclusions as follows:

1. The analysis effort of predicting the route choice pattern of vehicle movements on the
network, will be closer to the reality if it consider the actuality of travel cost
perception diverge among the traveler.
2. Travel cost perception diverge among traveler can be analyzed by add the
consideration that the perception diverge is following different distribution pattern
according to travel distances.
3. The experiment results have shown that with assumed there are 4 segments of travel
cost perception, it will appear different chosen routes if compare with chosen route
that result from same travel cost perception assumption.
4. The consideration that there are travel cost perception diverge among traveler will
make possible that the model can closer in approach the reality of traveler route choice
process on the network system, according to the human nature which are not always
have same perception about something, and in this case is travel cost.

References
1. Bell,M.G.H. dan Iida,Y., (1997), Transportation Network Analysis, John Wiley & Sons.
2. Kusdian,R.D., Tamin, O.Z., Ridwan, A.S., dan Sjafruddin, A., (2005) : Penggunaan
Distribusi Normal Dalam Memodelkan Persepsi Biaya Perjalanan, Prosiding Simposium
VIII Forum Studi Transportasi Antar Perguruan Tinggi (FSTPT), Univeritas Sriwijaya,
Palembang. (In Bahasa Indonesia)
3. Ortuzar, J.D. dan Willumsen, L.G. (1994): Modeling Transport, John Wiley & Sons Ltd.,
England.
4. Tamin, O.Z.(2000) : Perencanaan dan Pemodelan Transportasi, edisi 2, Penerbit
ITB, Bandung. (In Bahasa Indonesia)

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