2008 Orlando Annual 20

SOA 08 Annual Meeting & Exhibit
October 19-22, 2008

Session 20, Disability ModelingDesigning Effective
and Efficient Models
Moderator
Scott D. Haglund, FSA, MAAA
Authors
Lijia Guo, ASA, MAAA
Trevor C. Howes, FSA, FCIA, MAAA
Lijia Guo, Ph.D., ASA, MAAA

SocietyofActuaries
2008AnnualMeeting,Session20
October20,2008
Lijia Guo
SOA 2008 Annual Meeting
Agenda
y Introduction
y Generalized Linear Models
y Data Mining (DM)
y Fully Stochastic Models & Risks Integration
y Summary
Lijia Guo
WhyStochasticModeling
y Pricing&Underwriting
y Produceafulldistributionofpossibleoutcomes
y Confidencelevelsofheldreserves
y Considerthevolatilityoftheunpaidclaims
y Individuallines
y Correlationacrossthevariouslines
y VAR,CTE
y Regulatoryandcompliance
y
y
y
SolvencyII
IFRS/Fairvalueaccounting
Publiccompanies(SEC)
y ERM
y
y
Financialandcapitalmanagement
Operational/strategicexcellence
Lijia Guo
StochasticModeling
y
y
y
y
Generalized Linear Models (GLM)

Generalized Additive Models (GAM)
Data Mining (DM)
Fully Stochastic Models (FSM)
y Contingent claim Model (Stochastic Process)
y Other Statistics Methods
Lijia Guo
Agenda
y Introduction
y Data Mining (DM)
y Summary
Lijia Guo
StochasticModels GLM
E[Yi ] = i = g 1 ( X i , j j + i )
j
Var[Yi ] = V ( i ) / i
i
Foreachobservationi,fromdistributionwithmean
Yhasdistributionfromtheexponentialfamily
g iscalledthelinkfunction
Theidentitylink:g(Y)=Y
Theloglink:g(Y)=ln(Y)
Theinverselink:g(Y)=
Thelogit link:g(Y) =
1
Y
Y
ln(
)
1 Y
Var[Yi ] = V ( i ) / i
ForPoisson:
= 2 , V ( x) = 1, Var (Y ) = 2
= 1, V ( x) = x, Var (Y ) =
ForGamma:
= k , V ( x) = x 2 , Var (Y ) = k 2
ForNormal:
Y
Claim
Frequency
Claim#
Average
Claim
Amount
lnx
lnx
lnx
Error
Poisson
Poisson
Gamma
Binomial
Estimated
V(x)
Exposure
x2
#claims
ln(exposure)
StochasticModels GLMApplications
Prob./Lapse
x
ln
1 x
x(1x)
1
0
StochasticModels GLMApplications
Whattodowithcontinuousvariables? Age,ClaimSize
StochasticModels GAM
GLMs arespecialcaseofGAMs
Example
LN(E[PP])=+f1(age)+f2(gender)+f3(Income)+f4(marital)
Thefunctionsf1,f2,f3,f4canbeanything
GLM Categorical,polynomial,transforms
Nonparametricfunctionalsmoothers
Decisiontrees
Balancedegreesoffreedom,amountofdata,and
functionalformbetter
Lijia Guo
11
StochasticModels GAM
ErrorCriteria
{Yi g(ti)} + {g (t)} dt
issmoothingparameter
Applications P&C
Reference:
NonparametricRegressionandGeneralizedLinearModels, Green&Silverman
Lijia Guo
12
Agenda
y Introduction
y Data Mining
y Summary
Lijia Guo
13
StochasticModels DataMining
y Aninformationdiscoveryprocess.
y Knowingyourgoals
y Identifyingresponsivepotentialcustomers
y Identifyingexistingcustomersthatmorelikelytoterminate
y Identifyinglowriskpurchaser
y Identifyingthefactorsthatcauselargeclaims
y Indentifyinginteractionsamongriskfactors
y
y
y
y
Choosingtherightmethods
Understandingthelimitations
Validationandtesting
Makecrucialbusinessdecisions
Lijia Guo
14
DataMining Data
y IdentifyingData
y InternalSources
y Demographicdata
y Transactionaldata
y Surveydata
y ExternalSources
y Databases
y SurveyData
y Competitor
y PreparingData
y TransformingData
Lijia Guo
15
Introduction DMProcess
Lijia Guo
StochasticModels DataMining
y
y
y
y
y
DecisionTrees
Logisticregression
NeuralNetworks
FuzzyLogics
GeneticAlgorithms
Clustering
Associateddiscovery
SequenceDiscovery
Bayesiananalysis
Visualization
HybridAlgorithms
Problems with standard algorithms

Advanced algorithms
Discovery-driven approaches
Mixture of algorithms
16
Whatisthebestmethodforyou?
y ModelAssessment
y Goodnessoffit
y Predictionaccuracy
y
y
SensitivityandSpecificity
ROCcurve
y Modeldiagnostics
y
y
y
PearsonResiduals
DevianceResiduals
HatMatrixDiagonal
Lijia Guo
18
ModelValidation
y Crossvalidation
y Avoidmisleading
y Improvetheaccuracy
y Bootstrapvalidation
y Morerobustsolutions
y Confidencemeasure
y SlidingWindowvalidation fortimeseriesdata
y Nonstationary
y Slowvarying
Lijia Guo
19
DMinVariableSelection
y Improvingmodelaccuracyandefficiency
y Reducingmodelcomplexity/overfitting
y Problem
X = {x1 , x2 ,...xN }
Given{Y,X}where
F(X ) Y
y FindandF*,suchthat
Z X,
y FindF,suchthat
F *( X ) Y
20
CaseStudy DMinUnderwriting
y Data:GroupHealthwithover100inputvariables
y Goal:Practicalguideforunderwriterstouseforrates
adjustments
y PrincipleComponentsAnalysisapplied
y RegressionTree
y Finalmodelusesabout10%oftheoriginalvariables
y Improvedprofitabilityby50%
Lijia Guo
21
RegressionTreeExample
Profit=6.5%
+0.8% , if AS > 421
+1.2% , if male
young than 30
-0.5% , otherwise
-1.1% , otherwise
Tw o Variable Dependence for PROFIT_MARGIN; Slice SIZE = 0.99999999

PROFIT_MARGIN
Partial Dependence
Tw o Predictor Dependence For

PROFIT_MARGIN
AVG_SALARY
0.05
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
0.00
-0.05
-0.10
Lijia Guo
Partial Dependence
Tw o Variable Dependence for PROFIT_MARGIN; Slice SIZE = 1.02702701

PROFIT_MARGIN
0.05
0.00
5000
10000
15000
20000
AVG_SALARY
-0.05
25000
22
CaseStudy StatsandVariableImportance
InputAdditiveMultiplicativeImportance
Variable1
0.2679
0.2690
100.00
Variable2
0.2779
0.3203
75.23
Variable3
0.1456
0.1771
54.65
Variable9
0.1129
0.1148
23.37
PairVariables
Variable1&Variable2
Variable2&Variable3
Variable4&Variable7
Lijia Guo
Additive
0.3714
0.3704
Multiplicative
0.3847
0.4066
0.2417
0.2592
23
DesirableFeaturesofaDataMining
Method
y Anynonlinearrelationshipcanbeapproximated
y Amethodthatworkswhentheformofthenonlinearityis
unknown
y Theeffectofinteractionscanbeeasilydeterminedand
incorporatedintothemodel
y Themethodgeneralizeswellonoutofsampledata
Lijia Guo
DMApplicationsinInsurance
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
Underwriting
Pricing/RateMaking
ClaimScoring
RiskManagement
PolicyLevelAnalysis
ClusterAnalysis
VariableSelection
EffectofPlandesignonutilizationanddistributions
TrendsandProjections
24
Agenda
y Introduction
y Data Mining
y Summary
Lijia Guo
26
Fully Stochastic Model (FSM)

y RiskScenarios
y Economicscenarios
y Underwritingriskscenarios
y Policyholderbehavior
y IntegratingRisksandCorrelations
y AtProductlevel
y AtEnterpriselevel
y ModelEfficiencyandApplications
Lijia Guo
27
Scenarios
scenario simulation
historical
simulation
filtered historical
simulation
volatility
scaling
EWMA
Monte Carlo
simulation
correlation
scaling
GARCH
Lijia Guo
28
CaseStudy InsurancePackage
y
y
y
y
Ageofinsured:60
Unreduceddeathbenefit500,000
Deferredannuity
MonthlyLTCbenefit:min(10,000I(t),%AV),where
y I(t) indexedtotheinflation
y %AVvariesdependingonthestatesofcare(ADLs)
y Deathbenefitfordisabled:%AV
y MaximumLTCbenefit:200,000
y Waitingperiod:2years
Lijia Guo
29
StochasticModeling
y RiskMeasurein
y CreditRisk
y MarketRisk
y InsuranceRisk
y
y
y
y
y
y
y MortalityRisk
y Generalpopulation
y Disabledlives
Contingencyrisks
Catastrophe(Influenza
Pandemic)
Businesscontinuity
Claims
Liquidity
Reinsurance
y Riskbasedvalue
y Pricing
y Underwriting
y Reserving
Lijia Guo
InsurancePackage
y
y
y
y
y
MorbidityRisk
Lapse
Interestrisks
Underwriting(antiselection)
EmbeddedOptions
y Risks Interaction/correlation
y Claimreserve
30
ModelingInsurancePackage
y Pk
y
y
contractpremiumpayableatBOY
Discountfunction
n Term/lengthofthecontract
y APVofthepolicypremiumis
APV (Pr emiums) = APV ( DB) + APV ( DA) + APV (WB) + APV ( LTCB )
p x( ) = Pr(T ( x) > t ) = (1 k q '(xd ) )(1 k q '(xw) )(1 k q '(xi ) )
y Notethecorrelationsofrisks
LTCCombo StochasticInterestRate
y ThediscountfactorforthecashflowsattheEOYtis
y
vt =
y Where
rt
1
(1 + r1 )(1 + r2 ) L (1 + rt )
istheinterestrateprevailinginyeart:
drt = q(m rt )dt + dz

Example
q = .015, m = .0601, = .004
LTCCombo StochasticLapseRate
y Thelapserateinyeartis
y
qt( w) = 1 qt(w1) + 2 rt 1 + t ,
y Where
rt isUS1 yearTbillrateinyeart.
Example.
1 = .82, 2 = .22
t N (0,1)
LTCCombo StochasticMortalityRate
y MortalityRisk: Uncertaintyinfuturemortalityratesincludingincreasesand
decreasesinmortalityrates
y LeeCarterModel
y CairnsBlakeDowdModel
y LongevityRisk: Uncertaintyinthelongtermtrendinmortalityrates.
Normallytakentomeantheriskthatsurvivalratesarehigherthan
anticipated.
y ShortTerm,CatastrophicRisk: Riskthatovershortperiodsoftime,mortality
ratesaremuchhigher(orlower)thanwouldnormallybeexperienced.(e.g.,
influenzapandemicof1918).
StochasticMorbidityModels
(i , j )
y bk +1
y
LTCbenefitpaidatdifferentstatej ofdisability,j=1,2,3.
TransitionprobabilityfromStatei attimez toStatejattime t:
APV ( LTCB ) = (
k =1
b
j =1
(i, j )
k +1
Pi , j ( x + k , x + k + 1) ) v k +1 k p x( )
StochasticMorbidityModels
i , j (t )
istheforceoftransitionfromstatei toStatejattime t.
StateTransitionsinLTCinsurance stateofcare:
RiskScenarios
y MonteCarlo(singleandmultistep)
y Historical
y Stressscenarios,sensitivityshocks
y Additiveandmultiplicativeshockstoanyriskfactororriskfactornode
y Principlecomponentanalysis,factorreduction,riskfactorclustering
scenario simulation
historical
simulation
filtered historical
simulation
volatility
scaling
EWMA
Lijia Guo
Monte Carlo
simulation
correlation
scaling
SOA
2008 Annual Meeting
GARCH
37
Scenario s
Interest Rate
Spread
Mortality
Mobidity
Total EC
Multiple individual scenario sets by risk types

Asset and liabilities cash flows are modeled with the 4 scenario sets
EC calculated based on individual distribution
Total EC calculated based on the aggregation
Lijia Guo
38
IntegratingProductRisk/Return
Enterprise Economic Profit
Time
Product 1
Product 3
Product 2
25
30
20
Product 4
30
25
35
25
20
20
25
15
20
15
10
15
10
15
10
5
10
5
-5
0
Yr 1
Yr 1
Lijia Guo
Yr 1
-10
Yr 1
39
EffectofRiskAggregation
Lijia Guo
40
Summary
y StochasticModelingprovidesinsightintobothA&L
y
y
y
y
uncertainty
Stochasticmodelsaremorecomplexthantraditionalmodels
butthismakesactuarialanalysisandjudgmentevenmore
important
Regulatoryfocusonriskmanagementanddisclosureis
increasingdemand
OptimalRiskAdjustedReturn increaseenterpriseeconomic
profit
Q&A
Lijia Guo
41
References
England, P and Verrall, R (1999). Analytic and Bootstrap Estimates
of Prediction Errors in Claims Reserving, Insurance: Mathematics
and Economics
Guo, L (2001). Dynamic Method for the Valuation of Fair Value
Insurance Liabilities, Casualty Actuarial Society, www.casact.org
Guo, L (2003), Applying Data Mining Techniques in
Property/Casualty Insurance, Casualty Actuarial Society ,
www.casact.org
Guo, L (2003), Data Mining in Insurance Seminar, Society of
Actuaries, www.soa.org
Guo, L (2007), Stochastic Modeling in Health Benefits, Society of
Actuaries, www.soa.org
Lijia Guo
42
SOA Annual Meeting Orlando

Session 20
October 20, 2008
Disability Modeling:
Designing Effective and
Efficient Models
Trevor Howes,
FCIA, FSA, MAAA
Agenda
Modeling demands
Model Efficiency Work Group
Mathematical and model
techniques
Hardware Technology
Software Technology
Session 20 PD - Trevor Howes
Pending Issues Impacting

Disability Models
Principle-based Approach to reserves

and RBC capital
Robust, seriatim deterministic reserve

using gross premium method
Unlocked assumptions appropriate to

business and driven by experience
Stochastic Reserves and Capital
Single model for both purposes ?
Pending Issues Impacting

Disability Models
IFRS (Europe, Canada, Asia, SEC, US?)

ERM and Economic Capital
(Management, Ratings agencies,
Parent Corporations)
Capital Assessment (Solvency II,
proposed Canadian MCCSR)
NAIC has adopted a Solvency
Modernization Work Plan (June, 2008)
Will NAIC adopt IFRS before PBA?
Common threads
Realistic, probabilistic, risk based focus

Blend of deterministic and stochastic
1000s or 10s of 1000s of scenarios
Risk of higher volatility of results
Need for reliability and robustness
Increased scrutiny of actuarys
judgment and quality of models
Implications on Modeling
Models must become more effective,

more efficient AND
More granular and policy/plan specific
More precise for all material risks
More adaptable to multiple purposes
More flexible to respond to changes
More easily documented and audited
Implications on Modeling
Actuaries must become more effective

and efficient at modeling
Need more time for interpretation
and analysis of model results
Spend less time
building business models

entering and verifying assumptions
testing and validating
documenting
Model Efficiency Work Group
MEWG is a subgroup of the AAA SVL2

Committee created in 2007
Mandate to examine ways to make the
complex modeling required under PBA
more manageable
Techniques being examined could
apply generally to all modeling
including disability
Modeling Efficiency
Bibliography
Actuarial Modeling Techniques

Scenario design and selection
Mathematical or model design
Model data building
Technology Solutions
Hardware design
Software design
Website link:
http://www.actuary.org/risk/pdf/bibliography.pdf
Modeling Efficiency
For Disability
Scenario design and selection
stochastic analysis of economic risks
e.g. PBA and Economic Capital
Are these relevant or practical for

Disability models?
DI has long term interest rate risks
ALM analysis is useful
Useful to link dynamic policyholder

behavior to economic scenarios
10
Modeling Efficiency
For Disability
Scenario testing requires detailed

models reflecting realistic cash flows
Full multi-state model vs. claims costs
Economic risks impacted by claim runoff
Termination rates may vary by scenario
Required to properly understand the

business
Magnifies need for model efficiency

11
Modeling Efficiency
For Disability
Mathematical or model design

Closed form solutions to option
pricing
Low discrepancy sequences (QuasiMonte Carlo) vs. full Monte Carlo
Replicating portfolios
Predictive models
Low relevance to Disability models

12
Modeling Efficiency
For Disability
Model data building techniques

Most common solution to runtime
and technology constraints
Build compressed model using
Grouped data at selected model points

Representative plans and risk classes
Critical area for Disability models due

to runtimes and data heterogeneity
13
Modeling Efficiency
For Disability
Drawbacks of compressing in force

disability insurance data
Low compression ratios

Result distortion (model error)
Especially if risk class substitution
High effort to create and validate

Complicates multiple uses of model
Preferable to use full seriatim or

dynamic option to build and select
compressed version as needed
14
Modeling Efficiency
For Disability
Building compressed models
New techniques (Cluster Analysis)
Adjust compression ratio by block

according to sensitivity/significance
Calibrate and test according to purpose
Generate both full seriatim and

compressed models for comparison testing,
validation, adjusting compression
Automate compression if possible as part

of data extract load & transformation
15
Technology
hardware solutions?
For Stochastic analysis, may need

further 100 to 1000X improvement
while also meeting requirements for
Reasonable total cost (hardware, software,

IT infrastructure and support)
Increased reliability, auditability, control
Increased actuarial productivity and value
Will technology enable efficient

disability models in foreseeable future?
16
Technology performance review
Technology has delivered incredibly

consistent performance improvements
For example, over past 10 years, you
could purchase desktop PCs based on:
1998 (Pentium II, 400 MHz)
2003 (Pentium 4, 2.53 GHz)
2008 (Core 2 Quad, 2.66 GHz)
17
PC Performance
1998 - 2008
Year
Processor
Benchmark Benchmark
Time
Speed
1998
Pent II
400MHz
1.000
1.0
2003
Pent 4
2.53GHz
.172
5.8
2008
Core2 Quad
2.66GHz
.017
59.2
Estimates based on seriatim actuarial projection model

18
PC Performance per $1
1998 - 2008
Year
Processor
Approx
Cost
Benchmark
Value
1998
Pent II
400MHz
$4500
1.0
2003
Pent 4
2.53GHz
$2100
12.5
2008
Core2 Quad
2.66GHz
$2000
133.2
19
Historical Technology
Improvements
Miniaturization has enabled
higher transistor counts
faster response
increased clock speeds
more instructions per second
faster buses
Reduced voltages to manage heat

Faster and denser memory and drives
20
10
Future Innovations
New materials (hafnium oxide)

Deep UV optical lithography
Nanotechnology (molecular level)
Helium supercooled transistors
Terahertz transistor
Trigate transistors (3-d)
Biocomputing & neural networks
Quantum computing
21
Current Technology Trends
Increased parallelism in processors
Multiple instructions executed at once
Multiple processor cores on one chip
Faster than multiprocessors
Shorter distances
Shared bus and cache
Interface at higher clock speeds
Intel plans chips with 100+ cores

22
11
Personal Grids?
Personal Cluster deskside server

340 Gigaflops of computing power
8 quad-core processors (32 cores)
1 Terabyte disk storage
Regular 120V wall plug
Windows CCS O/S installed
Cost: under $20,000

23
Parallelism
Parallelism requires multithreading

Automatic benefit from OS tasks
However significant benefit requires
specific application design changes
Identify separable non-linear tasks
Manage thread synchronization
Data sharing and management
24
12
Parallelism and Distributed

Processing
Distributed Processing requires
Allocating processing steps to helpers
Distributing work by Cells, seriatim policies,

testing targets (scenarios)
Monitoring task completion or failure
Consolidation of results from helpers
Specific application support
25
Parallelism and Grids
In Grid Computing as typically used
Focus on capturing spare capacity for

many applications over large network
Enterprise Grid Managers are not

application specific or knowledgeable
May require inserting additional code
Software license and IT support per node
1000+ processors may achieve runtimes

but costly, inefficient, unreliable
26
13
The Evolution of Grids
Trend now to greater use of dedicated

server farms and/or computer clusters
Tightly coupled for efficiency
Easy software installation
Cost effective O/S and IT support
Microsoft CCS 2003 & HPC Server 2008 enables

sharing grid and scheduling
Robust and audit friendly
Highly scalable to large farms

27
Technology Solution
Hardware?
Will technology enable efficient but complex

disability models in foreseeable future?
Not enough for large stochastic applications yet
Quite enough now for seriatim, first principles,

multi-state models, selected scenarios
Model efficiency must also consider human

costs of maintenance, control and analysis
One actuarys salary plus overhead = cost of
farm of 250 + cores?
Technology can make actuary more
productive depending on application software
28
14
Technology Solution
Software
Detailed, first principles, multi-state

model
Optional claims cost approach
Enable selective adjustment of each

component of claims cost and
understanding impact
Support compound assumptions
Facilitates experience analysis

29
Technology Solution
Software
Full seriatim business model for both

valuation and projection
Optional selective compression
Avoid reconciliation and validation
Enable targeted adjustment of

assumptions at granular level
Supports experience analysis, source

of earnings, reserve movement
30
15
Technology Solution
Software
Multiple purpose, multiple basis

projection capabilities
Avoid reconciliation and validation
Ease of testing what if scenarios,

reporting impact of changes
Both deterministic and stochastic(?)
Staff productivity with one platform

to learn and maintain
31
Technology Solution
Software
Store assumptions in objects separate

from model framework, logic and code
Promote control of code changes,
stability, ease of validation, audit
Facilitate assumption query,

documentation, change
Balance of control vs. flexibility
Separation of duties; use of skills

32
16
Technology Solution
Software
Integrated automated model building
Load of source data and transformation to

feed model (avoid relying on IT dept)
Compress? (if necessary)
Define and apply rules
to assign business to supercells

to attach/update assumptions in
supercells or at seriatim level
(to reduce numbers of supercells)
Enable auditable start to end batch process
33
Efficient and
Effective Models
Avoid over simplification of models
Seriatim, first principles, flexible
MEWG is studying model efficiency

techniques
Hardware technology will help
Software design is critical to user
productivity with models
34
17

2008 Orlando Annual 20

Diunggah oleh

Informasi Dokumen

Hak Cipta

Format Tersedia

Bagikan dokumen Ini

Bagikan atau Tanam Dokumen

Opsi Berbagi

Apakah menurut Anda dokumen ini bermanfaat?

Apakah konten ini tidak pantas?

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

2008 Orlando Annual 20

Diunggah oleh

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

SOA 08 Annual Meeting & Exhibit

October 19-22, 2008

Lijia Guo, Ph.D., ASA, MAAA

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

Generalized Linear Models (GLM)

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

Problems with standard algorithms

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

+0.8% , if AS > 421

Tw o Variable Dependence for PROFIT_MARGIN; Slice SIZE = 0.99999999

Tw o Predictor Dependence For

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

Tw o Variable Dependence for PROFIT_MARGIN; Slice SIZE = 1.02702701

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

Fully Stochastic Model (FSM)

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

p x( ) = Pr(T ( x) > t ) = (1 k q '(xd ) )(1 k q '(xw) )(1 k q '(xi ) )

drt = q(m rt )dt + dz

q = .015, m = .0601, = .004

Multiple individual scenario sets by risk types

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

SOA 2008 Annual Meeting

SOA Annual Meeting Orlando

FCIA, FSA, MAAA

Session 20 PD - Trevor Howes

Pending Issues Impacting

Principle-based Approach to reserves

Robust, seriatim deterministic reserve

Unlocked assumptions appropriate to

Stochastic Reserves and Capital

Single model for both purposes ?

Session 20 PD - Trevor Howes

Pending Issues Impacting

IFRS (Europe, Canada, Asia, SEC, US?)

Realistic, probabilistic, risk based focus

Session 20 PD - Trevor Howes

Models must become more effective,

More granular and policy/plan specific

More precise for all material risks

More adaptable to multiple purposes

More flexible to respond to changes

More easily documented and audited

Session 20 PD - Trevor Howes

Actuaries must become more effective

Spend less time