Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 671 SpadinaFort York residents by Smart IVR on

September 14, 2015. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed.
Margin of Error: +/- 3.72%, 19 times out of 20.
Results were weighed by age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

SPADINA FORT YORK HEATS UP

September 16, 2015 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds a tight race between
the NDPs Olivia Chow and the Liberals Adam Vaughan. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a
margin of error of +/- 3.72%, 19 times out of 20.
Mainstreet previously polled SpadinaFort York - before Olivia Chow formally announced her
candidacy. The previous poll, conducted June 27th, found Chow at 36% (Now 34%, -2%) and
Vaughan at 30% (no change) among all voters. The change for Chow is within the polls margin of
error. The Conservatives are down 2% to 10%, the Greens down 2% to 3% and Undecided voters
have jumped to 23% from 17% (+6%).
Olivia Chow continues to hold on to the lead in Spadina-Fort York against Liberal incumbent
Adam Vaughan, said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. When we polled this
matchup ahead of the election as a scenario, Chow led by a larger margin and now that the race
has been reailized, support levels have settled.
This race will be a clash of political titans in Toronto between Chow, a star candidate, former MP
and Mayoral hopeful vs former City Councillor and current MP Adam Vaughan. Both are touted to
play significant roles in Ottawa.
This riding is a challenge for campaigns with a high concentration of condominiums in the south
end with hard to reach populations. Those groups of voters could have an impact on outcome on
October 19th.
A real positive for the Liberal campaign is the lead among undecided leaning voters where Adam
Vaughan leads the NDP with 17% compared to 11%. With over a month to election day, there
remains opportunity for the two leading campaigns, he finished.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently,
Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, President, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

If the federal election were

held today,
which
candidate would you support?
LEANING
AND
DECIDED

45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10

All Voters

Sabrina Zuniga (CPC)

Sabrina Zuniga (CPC)
Olivia Chow (NDP)
Adam Vaughan (LPC)
Sharon Danley GPC)
Undecided
Sample
Sabrina Zuniga (CPC)
Olivia Chow (NDP)
Adam Vaughan (LPC)
Sharon Danley GPC)
Undecided

Olivia Chow (NDP)

3%

39%

45%

13%

23%

3%

30%

34%

10%

Decided Only

Adam Vaughan (LPC)

18-34
5%
30%
31%
1%
33%
91

35-49
10%
30%
29%
3%
30%
114

Certain
10%
34%
30%
2%
23%

Sharon Danley GPC)

50-64
12%
41%
28%
4%
15%
207
Likely
10%
28%
42%
3%
17%

65+
13%
38%
32%
3%
13%
259

Undecided

Male
11%
35%
32%
3%
19%
313

Might
2%
42%
27%
2%
27%

Female
8%
33%
28%
3%
28%
358

Unlikely
6%
44%
10%
5%
35%

A4

LEANINGtoward
AND DECIDED
And which party are you leaning
voting for? (UNDECIDED ONLY)

4%
11%

19%

63%
4%

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a

chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG
MIGHT CHANGE
UNDECIDED

CPC
52%
26%
21%

NDP
52%
31%
17%

LPC
71%
22%
6%

A5

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming federal election?

Certain
Likely
Might
Unlikely
And if the federal election were held today, which candidate would you support?
Sabrina Zuniga of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
Olivia Chow of the NDP led by Thomas Mulcair
Adam Vaughan of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Sharon Danley of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]
Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
NDP led by Thomas Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Not Sure
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance
you will change your mind before the next election? [DECIDED VOTERS ONLY]
Strong Support
Might Change Your Mind
Not Sure