Anda di halaman 1dari 23

CERI 2015 Petrochemical Conference

June 8, 2015

Forward-looking Information
This presentation contains forward-looking statements. When used in this presentation the words may, would, could, will,
intend, plan, anticipate, believe, seek, propose, estimate, expect, and similar expressions, as they relate to AltaGas or
any affiliate of AltaGas, are intended to identify forward-looking statements. In particular, this presentation contains forward-looking
statements with respect to, among others things, business objectives, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business
projects, opportunities and financial results.
These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ
materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements. Such statements reflect AltaGas current views with respect to
future events based on certain material factors and assumptions and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties including without
limitation, changes in market competition, governmental or regulatory developments, changes in tax legislation, general economic
conditions and other factors set out in AltaGas public disclosure documents. Many factors could cause AltaGas or any of its
business segments actual results, performance or achievements to vary from those described in this presentation, including without
limitation those listed above as well as the assumptions upon which they are based proving incorrect. These factors should not be
construed as exhaustive. Factors which could cause results or events to differ from current expectations are: capital resources and
liquidity risk, market risk, commodity price risk, operational risk, volume declines, weather, construction, counterparty risk,
environmental risk, regulatory risk and labour relations. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should
assumptions underlying forward-looking statements prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those described in this
presentation as intended, planned, anticipated, believed, sought, proposed, estimated or expected, and such forward-looking
statements included in this presentation herein should not be unduly relied upon. These statements speak only as of the date of this
presentation. AltaGas does not intend, and does not assume any obligation, to update these forward-looking statements except as
required by law. The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified as cautionary statements.
Financial outlook information contained in this presentation about prospective results of operations, financial position or cash flows is
based on assumptions about future events, including economic conditions and proposed courses of action, based on managements
assessment of the relevant information currently available. Readers are cautioned that such financial outlook information contained
in this presentation should not be used for the purposes other than for which it is disclosed herein. Additional information relating to
AltaGas can be found on its website at www.altagas.ca. The continuous disclosure materials of AltaGas, including its annual MD&A
and Consolidated Financial Statements, Annual Information Form, Information Circular, and Proxy Statement, material change
reports and press releases, are also available through AltaGas website or directly through the SEDAR system at www.sedar.com.

AltaGas - Diversified, Clean Energy Infrastructure


EBITDA2
by segment

~2 Bcf/d
of natural gas
transacted

1,530 MW
of power generation
in five fuel types1

5 Utilities
serving over
560,000 customers

Gas
Processing and moving
natural gas to key
markets including Asia

Gas
Power
Utilities

Power
Generating clean energy
with natural gas and
renewable sources

Utilities
Delivering clean and
affordable natural gas to
homes and businesses

1 Includes

projects under construction


2015F
See forward-looking statements & information
2

AltaGas - Integrated Export Market Infrastructure

Fort Sask. hub2

Abundant
natural gas

RAW
GAS

Existing extraction,
processing &
fractionation

NGL

New processing
infrastructure

SALES
GAS

Storage, rail &


truck offloading2
New storage, rail
& truck offloading

PNG pipeline
PNG pipeline
expansion

1
2

Rail, truck
&
pipelines2

NORTH
AMERICAN
MARKETS

Ferndale
Terminal1
LPG west coast
terminal

ASIAN
MARKETS

Douglas Channel
terminal
LNG terminal
expansion

Under development or evaluation

Ferndale Terminal is owned by Petrogas and operated by AltaGas


Includes Petrogas assets and capabilities

See forward-looking statements & information

AltaGas - Building Alliances with Producers

Signed a 15-year strategic alliance with Painted


Pony Petroleum Ltd.
Natural gas and NGL processing infrastructure
and marketing services
Supports reserve growth in the Montney
Provides new markets for production
Phase I: 198 Mmcf/d Townsend shallow-cut
natural gas processing facility
Build-out of additional infrastructure expected

See forward-looking statements & information

AltaGas - Building Alliances with Consumers

Strategic joint venture with Idemitsu Kosan Co., Ltd.


AIJV formed to pursue opportunities involving
exports of LNG and LPG
Idemitsu own 51% of Astomos who operate 21
VLGCs (roughly 13% of the global fleet)
Direct access to LPG markets and receipt
terminals in Japan and other Asian countries
Own two-thirds of a leading North American
marketer of LPGs (Petrogas)
Support ongoing development of the only existing
LPG export terminal located on west coast of
North America (Ferndale)

See forward-looking statements & information

Discussion Framework - CERI Study No. 139

Base supply outlook discussion on CERI Study No. 139 dated July 2014
Information presented in the best case scenario (LNG Tsunami)
Will also consider slow growth scenario (Nowhere Fast) and more pessimistic view

Discussion Framework - Natural Gas Prices

Large number of unknowns associated with natural gas prices


Possible that the Nowhere Fast scenario is optimistic
Actions taken today will influence future prices

Discussion Framework - Natural Gas Production

NGL discussions will be based upon a continued grow in WCSB production


Adds 6.0 BCF/D by 2030 at a CAGR of 2.0%
LNG exports have a crucial role to play

Discussion Framework - Crude Oil Prices

Like natural gas, large number of unknowns associated with crude oil prices
Crude oil prices influence the development of both NGLs and LNG

Future Outlook - US Propane

Supply volumes could double from 2012 levels by adding over 1,000,000 BBL/D near 2020
Flows with Canada will reverse from net US imports to net US exports
Exports (includes propylene) trending around 500,000 BBL/D could grow to 1,000,000 BBL/D

10

Future Outlook - Canadian Propane

Begin imports from US in 2016 with volume rising to 75,000 BBL/D by 2030
Increase in Canadian production of 136,000 BBL/D to 378,000 BBL/D by 2030
Assumes new PDH plants in Alberta by 2011 using 66,000 BBL/D

11

Future Outlook - Canadian Propane

Canadian net exports of propane to US go to 0 BBL/D by 2020


Assumes that new LPG export facilities will make up for loss of all US exports
The Obvious: Canada Needs New Markets for Propane

12

Seaborne LPG Trade Flow Patterns


West of Suez
Market

East of Suez
Market

Europe
Demand:
Supply:

Export Area
Country

Future Cargo
Flow

Import Area
Country

China
Demand:
Supply:

SE Asia
Demand:
Supply:
Oceania
Demand:
Supply:

To South
America

To
Europe

North
America
Demand:
Supply:

Japan /
Korea
Demand:
Supply:

Middle
East
Demand:
Supply:
Africa
Demand:
Supply:

Cargo Flow

Supply growth in Africa, North America


(West of Suez)
To be absorbed into demand in
Petrochemicals in the U.S. and Europe
and/or to Asia Market as arbitrage

South
America
Demand:
Supply:

Supply growth in Middle East, Oceania


(East of Suez)
To be absorbed into demand in emerging
countries, Petrochemicals in Asia

13

Seaborne LPG Trade Shipping Days

10 (1)

15 (2)
31 (2)
25 (2)

17 (2)

13 (2)

5 (2)
19 (2)
14 (3)

22 (2)
12 (2)
41 (2)

10 (4)
31 (2)

Shortest shipping times of all major global LPG sources


(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)

Source: Apache (LNG shipping times from Kitimat)


Source: Targa
Source: Waterborne (Southeast Australia to Yokohama)
Source: Chevron (LNG shipping time from Western Australia)

14

Seaborne LPG Trade Focus for Canadian Exports


Initial industry focus on propane with potential volume of up to 75,000 BBL/D
Potential for butane exports if supply conditions warrant
Largest competition will come from USGC sourced propane: will compete on price
Concentrate on markets that offer shipping cost advantage: Japan, South Korea,
and China
Leverage other advantages: stable government, portfolio effect, safe-water port,
direct route

15

East Asian Markets Saudi Contract Price (CP)

Roughly 80% of LPG supply delivered to Japan, Korea, and China is sourced from the Middle East
Prices for propane and butane set monthly by Saudi Aramco - traditionally high correlation with Brent
Buyers used to rely on Brent futures for hedging, but CP swap market is improving; indexes for
delivered supply such as Argus Far East Index (FEI) - are developing, but tend to be illiquid

16

East Asian Markets Driven by Arbitrage

Edmonton Netback = Delivered Price From Middle East Cost to Delivered from Edmonton
= (Saudi CP + Freight to Japan) (Rail Costs + LPG Toll + Freight to Japan)
Rail costs and higher LPG Toll for Canadian supply to be partially offset by lower shipping costs to
Asian markets: Expect Canadian prices will return to historical discounts to MTB

17

East Asian Markets Stable with Growth Potential


Million Ton/Year

Demand in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan stable with slow growth: Japans import requirements
were recently adjusted upward due to lower refinery production of propane
Key growth market will be China where propane will be used as feedstock for new PDH plants: 5
plants now operating with 4 new plants to come on in the next 2 3 years
Demand in Indonesia, Thailand, and India expected to rise with population and economic growth

18

Canadian LPG Exports The Opportunity

Stable and safe source of


supply to meet global
demand for clean source
of energy

Natural gas producers


committed to safe
operations and
continuous improvement

Proximity to Asian
markets vs the USGC

Montney and Duvernay estimated to have more


than

3,000 TCF of gas in place

Canadas annual
consumption

~3 TCF
19

Canadian LPG Exports AltaGas Activity so Far


Ferndale
Exporting LPG to Asia
First export of
propane took place
April 2015
Butane exports
started August 2014
750,000 BBL of current
storage capacity
Exported ~3,000,0001
BBLs in 2014
Ramping up to 30,000
BBL/D over next few years

1 Since

May 1, 2014
See forward-looking statements & information

20

Canadian LPG Exports AltaGas Future Plans


Site feasibility underway and in dialogue with potential off-takers

See forward-looking statements & information

21

Thank You

See forward-looking statements & information

22

Anda mungkin juga menyukai