Homework 3: Probability Random Processess

Karthik V.Kalyani
September 2015

List of Questions
1. War game strategists make living by solving problems of the following
type.There are six incoming ballistic missiles(BMs) against which are
fired twelve Anti-Missile Missiles(AMMs).The AMMs are fired so that
two Amms are directed against each BM.The single shot killing Probability (SKKP) of an AMM is 0.8. The SSKP is simply the probability that
an AMM destroys a BM. Assume that an AMMs dont interfere with each
other and that an AMM can, atmost destroy only BM against which it
was fired, compute the probability
All BMs are destroyed.
Atleast one BM gets through to destroy the target.
Exactly one BM gets through.
2. Assume in problem 1, that the target was destroyed by the BMs what is
the Conditional Probability that only BM got through?
3. (Multinomial Probability Law) A computer chip manufacturer finds that,
historically, for every 100 chips produced, 85 meet specifications, 10 need
reworking, and 5 need to be discarded , Ten chips are sampled at random
for inspection.
What is the probability that all 10 meet the specifications?
What is the probability that two are more need to be discarded?
What is the probability that 8 meet specifications, 1 need reworking,
and 1 will be discarded?
4. A smuggler , trying to pass himself off as a glass-bead importer, attempts
to smuugle diamonds by mixing diamond beads among glass beads in
the proportion of one diamond bead per 1000 beads. A harried customs
inspector examines a sample of 100 beads. What is the probability that
the smuggler will be caught, that is, that there will be atleast one diamond
bead in the samples?
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5. Assume that a faulty receiver produces audible clicks to the great annoyance of the listener. The average number of the clicks per second depends
on the receiver temperature and is given by ( ) = 1 exp( /10), where
is the time from turn-on. Device a formula for the probability of the
0,1,2....clicks during the first 10 seconds of operation after the turn-on.
Assume the Poisson Law.
6. The circuit shown in the figure below represents a telephone communication link. Switches i , i= 1, 2, 3...6 are open or closed and operate
independently. The probability that a switch is closed is p. Let Ai represent the event that switch i is closed.
Interms of the A0i s write the event that there exists atleast one closed
path from 1 to 2 .
Compute the probability of thers being atleast one closed path from
1 to 2 .
7. An automatic breathing apparatus (B) used in anasthesia fails with probability pB . A failure means death to the patient unless a monitor system
(M) detects the failure and alerts with probability pM . The failure of the
systems are independent events. Professor X, an M.D at H.M.S, argues
that if pM >pB , installation of M is useless. Show that Prof. X needs to
take a course on Probability Theory by computing the probability of a
patient dying with and with out the monitor system in place. Take pM =
0.1= 2pB .

Solutions: