Outline
Why inspections based on risk-profiling
How to do inspections based on risk-profiling
Practical aspects of doing inspections based on riskprofiling
Plans for risk-profiling in Romania
USD10*1000 inspections
USD 10,000
Benefit
USD 5,000
Cost-benefit ratio
10,000: 5,000 = 2: 1
Fraud
referral
Manual
screening
A dedicated
It increases
Outline
Why inspections based on risk-profiling
How to do inspections based on risk-profiling
Practical aspects of doing inspections on risk-profiling
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Area
No of
members
Urban
Rural
Rural
Rural
Rural
Urban
Urban
Rural
..
..
100,000
etc.
No of members/no of children
Health status
Area
No of
members
Urban
Rural
Rural
etc.
Sample of beneficiaries
No
Area
No of
members
Rural
Rural
Rural
Rural
Urban
Urban
Rural
Urban
..
Rural
..
1,000
etc.
..
100,000
Rural
Samples to assess the level of EFC and calibrate the risk-based tools do not
need to be substantial to be use
9
Area
No of members
etc.
Rural
Non-fraud
Rural
Non-fraud
Urban
Fraud
Rural
Non-Fraud
..
1,000
Rural
Fraud
Result of the
investigation
% of
fraudsters
No of
members
Urban
70
Rural
30
20
Total
100
10
30
25
4+
14
10
10
No of
members
Urban
% in total
% of
population fraudsters
% in total
population
% of
fraudsters
10
40
20
30
10
4+
4+
20
100
25
10
12
100
32
10%
Total
Rural
Total
11
Area
No of
members
Urban
Rural
Rural
Rural
Rural
Urban
Urban
Rural
etc.
..
..
100,000
12
Classification trees
Logistic regressions
Linear regressions
Cluster analysis
13
Classification trees
Automatic procedures exploring and analyzing data to identify
the characteristics that are more likely to predict the
beneficiaries committing fraud
No prior model specification of explanatory variables is needed
The technique identifies groups of individuals that are as
homogeneous as possible based on a set of predefined
variables.
14
Fraud: 30%
Fraud: 5%
Education
<Secondary school (15%)
Fraud: 20%
Fraud: 30%
3+children (3%)
Fraud: 80%
15
Logistic regression
It identifies the key beneficiary characteristics that contribute to
whether or not a case is fraudulent or in error.
Weights each characteristics according to its importance in
identifying irregularity to provide an overall risk score for
each case.
The risk score can take a value of between 0 and 1 (with 0 not at
all likely to be in error and 1 more likely to be in error)
16
Odds Ratio
(Fraud versus
Non-Fraud)
2.5
1.5
1.25
A lone parent beneficiary has 2.5 times higher odds to fraud than
beneficiary family with both parents, holding all other factors
constant.
17
Family
Area
No of
members
Education
Probability of
fraud
Risk of
fraud
Lone
parent
Rural
Tertiary
0.9
High
Both
parents
Urban
No
education
0.1
Low
Lone
parent
Rural
No
education
0.3
Low
Both
parents
Rural
Tertiary
0.7
High
Both
parents
Rural
Secondary
0.5
Medium
Rural
..
100,000
18
Outline
Why inspections based on risk-profiling
How to do inspections based on risk-profiling
Practical aspects of doing inspections on risk-profiling
19
Needed resources
20
Outline
Why to do inspections based on risk-profiling
How to do inspections based on risk-profiling
Practical aspects of doing inspections on risk-profiling
21
Scheduled activities
22
26