KEY WORDS: pipeline; corrosion; probability of failure; inspection; integrity; B31G; DNV-RP-F101
1.
INTRODUCTION
2.
FAILURE PRESSURE
3.
BURST PRESSURE
(1)
4.
RELIABILIY INDEX
|! " =
45
6"
7 89:;89<"
3=
4 6 ">
789 :<"
?@"
789AB
(3)
& "
D & 4 = 0 1 + G?4
(5)
3H4I
3H6I
2=
N :"OPQRS
<
N <"OPQRS
:
=%UV:S >U
L (6)
(7)
=%UV<S >
?@
& "
= W 0 1 + G?@
(9)
&
C 0-." = 0C -." & ln 1 + G?@
" (10)
2=
?@"
789AB
X3
S Z
?@"YO%UVAB
S >
=%UVAB
(11)
5.
RELIABILIY ANALYSIS
(12)
bg
D D
`$
`$f cd, ch cd ch
(13)
When the random variables in function -. are
assumed uncorrelated, Equation (13) can be
presented in a simpler form as follows:
G
H-.I = jk
l?@ &
lcd
m n Dc&d
(14)
lcd
H-.I p% k
l?@
cdQ 5cd;
(15)
7.
?@HcdQ I 5?@Hcd; I
&
m (16)
EXAMPLE
-.H$ U I -.H$ 5 I
H-.I X
Z
2
1.448 1.424 &
=_
a
2
= 0.000458859
&
The Safety Factor, -. , is assumed to be lognormally distributed random variable with the
expected value (first moment) C -." = 1.424
and D?@ = 0.307 . Using the properties of the
lognormal distribution, the equivalent normally
distributed random variable has the following
parameters:
5
1
C 0-." = 0CH-.I D & ?@ = 0.33087
2
And
= O 0 1+
?@
1
0.9
= 0.2157
0-.
5C
0-."
0.10536 0.33087
D ?@
0.2157
= 1.0576463
Probablity of failure
& "
G?@
Probability of failure
0.500
35
40
45
DNV-RP-F101
CONCLUSIONS
0.300
0.200
0.100
0.000
45
25
30
Internal Pressure (MPa)
2.
0.400
40
20
0.600
35
15
Modified B31G
0.700
30
0.3
10
0.800
25
0.4
0.900
20
0.5
0.1
1.
1.000
15
0.6
REFERENCES
10
0.7
0.2
8.
0.8
50
Pressure (MPa)
3.
Figure 1 Conditional Probability of Failure for the example
problem based on DNV Equation.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
2.0.|}.~
H1 1 ~"|I
,
.|}. .|. F 68.95
-=
Modified ASME
B31G
DNV RP F101
SHELL-92
RSTRENG
2.0.|}.~ 1 1 ~"
^
b
,1~
1 1 ~"|
Folias Factor
&
! , W ^2/,~ 50
&
3.3 F 0.032 X Z
,}
! , W ^2/,~ x 50
|
1.8.|}.~ 1 1 ~"
^
b
,
1 1 ~"|
2.0.|}.~
H1 1 ~"|I
,
&
1 F 0.31 X Z
,~
&
1 F 0.805 X Z
,~
&
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
YS
509
624
532
555
534
441
512
501
517
458
509
427
636
563
607
619
622
716
TS
572
624
608
580
653
585
600
581
559
546
605
578
645
589
630
716
eu
0.09
0.01
0.12
0.09
0.11
0.15
0.12
0.13
0.09
0.1
0.11
0.14
0.05
0.1
0.14
0.09
0.1
14.81
13.49
19.99
19.99
15.9
15.9
15.9
15.9
19.05
19.05
19.05
19.05
19.05
19.05
19.05
14.12
14.1
508
543.6
762
762
609.6
609.6
609.6
609.6
914.4
914.4
914.4
914.4
609.6
609.6
609.6
1117.6
1117.6
0.09
0.013
0.112
0.087
0.105
0.135
0.112
0.126
0.089
0.097
0.104
0.135
0.046
0.095
0.127
0.09
0.091
Ro
254
271.8
381
381
304.8
304.8
304.8
304.8
457.2
457.2
457.2
457.2
304.8
304.8
304.8
558.8
558.8
Ri
239.2
258.3
361
361
288.9
288.9
288.9
288.9
438.2
438.2
438.2
438.2
285.8
285.8
285.8
544.7
544.7
K = Ro/Ri
1.06
1.05
1.06
1.06
1.06
1.06
1.06
1.06
1.04
1.04
1.04
1.04
1.07
1.07
1.07
1.03
1.03
Sec Mod
6080
47993
5153
6371
5882
4032
5083
4337
6012
5353
5503
4017
13715
5894
4667
7577
7537
V eff
0.49
0.45
0.49
0.49
0.49
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.49
0.49
0.49
0.5
0.49
0.49
0.5
0.49
0.49
YT
0.89
0.87
0.96
0.82
0.75
0.85
0.86
0.92
0.84
0.84
0.74
0.99
0.96
0.96
0.86
0.87
D/t
34.31
40.3
38.12
38.12
38.34
38.34
38.34
38.34
48
48
48
48
32
32
32
79.14
79.28
Test result
35.8
33.8
30.6
32
34.8
31.8
31.7
30.2
24.8
23.1
25.8
23.2
40.7
36.4
39
21.8
21.7
ASME
34.1
31.6
32.6
31.1
34.8
31.1
32
31
23.7
23.1
25.6
24.5
41.3
37.8
40.4
18.3
18.2
DNV
32.4
31.7
30.7
30.6
31.8
27.5
29.8
29
22.9
21.4
23.7
21.4
41.3
37.2
39.9
17.1
17.1
Table 5: Summary of inputs and results for the case study (DNV-RP-F101)
DNV RP-F101
l mm
Run
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
250
225
275
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
Operating Pressure
20
Mpa
t mm
SMTS
Model
STD
Pf
(Mpa)
FS
273.05 11.1
273.05 11.1
273.05 11.1
273.05 11.1
273.05 11.1
273.05 11.1
273.05 11.1
259.4
11.1
286.7
11.1
273.05 9.99
273.05 12.21
273.05 11.1
273.05 11.1
273.05 11.1
273.05 11.1
455
455
455
455
455
455
455
455
455
455
455
413.64
500.5
455
455
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0.92
1.08
2.719
2.486
2.956
2.719
2.719
2.719
2.719
2.780
2.662
2.847
2.610
2.719
2.719
2.719
2.719
28.484
28.953
28.096
29.867
27.051
28.484
28.484
29.936
27.173
23.889
33.071
25.894
31.332
26.205
30.762
1.424
1.448
1.405
1.493
1.353
1.424
1.424
1.497
1.359
1.194
1.654
1.295
1.567
1.310
1.538
d mm w m D mm
4.44
4.44
4.44
3.996
4.884
4.44
4.44
4.44
4.44
4.44
4.44
4.44
4.44
4.44
4.44
40
40
40
40
40
36
44
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
E(FS)= 1.4242
Var(FS)= 0.0943
Sigma(FS)=0.3071
V(FS)= 0.2157
Varaince
Normalised
Component
0.000458859
0.0048639
0.004956224 0.05253594
0
0.004772806
0.0505917
0.052689577 0.55850906
0.018481065 0.19589913
0.012981167 0.13760026
0.094339698
1
Z=
-1.0576463
I(crit)
Ln(FScrit)= 0.10536
1.1111
Pf=1-F(Z )
0.8548916
Table 6: Summary of inputs and results for the case study (BG31G)
Modified BG31G
Run
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
Operating Pressure
l (mm)
d (mm)
w
(m)
250
225
275
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
250
4.44
4.44
4.44
3.996
4.884
4.44
4.44
4.44
4.44
4.44
4.44
4.44
4.44
4.44
4.44
40
40
40
40
40
36
44
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
20
11.1
11.1
11.1
11.1
11.1
11.1
11.1
11.1
11.1
9.99
12.21
11.1
11.1
11.1
11.1
427
427
427
427
427
427
427
427
427
427
427
388.2
469.7
427
427
E(i)= 1.268
Var(i)= 0.055
Sigma(i)= 0.235
V(i)= 0.185
I(crit)
Mpa
Mode
l STD
Pf (Mpa)
FS
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0.92
1.08
3.5309
3.2418
3.8093
3.5309
3.5309
3.5309
3.5309
3.6044
3.4622
3.6830
3.3976
3.5309
3.5309
3.5309
3.5309
25.3545
25.5977
25.1585
26.3795
24.3073
25.3545
25.3545
26.6308
24.1985
21.6635
29.0252
23.0495
27.8899
25.3545
25.3545
1.2677
1.2799
1.2579
1.3190
1.2154
1.2677
1.2677
1.3315
1.2099
1.0832
1.4513
1.1525
1.3945
1.2677
1.2677
E(ln)=
0.220392
Varaince
Componen Normalised
t
0.00012052
0.00219065
0.00268376 0.048779991
0
0.00369758 0.067207258
0.03387237 0.615663874
0.0146434
0.266158227
0
0.05501764
z=
0
1
-1.2012511
Pr(f)= F(z)
0.1148269
Pf=1-F(z)
0.8851731
Sigm(ln i) 0.183469
Ln(I crit)=
11