Traditional Channel

Modern Channel

Distributors
Retail Selling Points
Metro & Supermarkets

2005
220
90000

2006

2007

Comment:
+ Focusing on developing channels, both traditional & modern channels.
+ CAGR Retail Selling Points:
2005-2010: 9,24%
2010-2012: 19,5%
2005-2012: 12,1%
+ CAGR Distributors:
2005-2012: 1,84%

=> The slow-down CAGR distributors: matured. We forecast the period 2013-2017 CARG Distrib
=> The company will maintain good relationships with both traditional &modern channels to pro
=> Forecasted CARG Retail Selling Points for the period 2013-2017: 10% => @ the end 2017: 3
As the result, VNM can widespread its selling network through VN, from urban cities to rural area

2008
125000

2009

2010
140000

2011
232
178000

2012
250
200000

2013

d 2013-2017 CARG Distributors: 1% (263 @ the end of 2017).

l &modern channels to promote products and develop selling network.
0% => @ the end 2017: 322102
m urban cities to rural areas to sell its products.

Forecast
2014
2015

ast
2016

2017
322102

Valuation Statistics - DHG

Methodology Name
Public Company Comparables:
Trailing EV / Revenue:
Trailing EV / EBITDA:
Trailing P/E:

DHG - Range of Valuation Multiples / Premiums

25th
Pecentile
Multiple

Minimum
Multiple

0.4 x
3.8 x
7.4 x

0.6 x
4.6 x
10.3 x

Median
Multiple

75th
Pecentile
Multiple

0.9 x
5.4 x
13.2 x

1.0 x
6.4 x
14.1 x

Maximum
Multiple

2.3 x
12.1 x
17.5 x

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis:

15.21% - 19.21% Discount Rate, 7.0x-9.0x Terminal Multiple_FCFE
15.21% - 19.21% Discount Rate, 7.0x-9.0x Terminal Multiple_FCFF
Units: VND million
Valuation Summary

Valuation Date:
Company Name:
Share Price:

26/02/2013
DHG
131,000

Basic Shares Outstanding:

Basic Equity Value (VNDm)

65,366,299
8,562,985

Less: Cash & equivalent

Plus: Debt
Plus: Minorities Interest
Enterprise Value
Valuation Multiples

EV / Revenue:
EV / EBIT:
EV / EBITDA:

Unit:
Currency:

1,000,000
VND

(613,287)
127,031
18,055.00
8,094,784

Historical
2011A
2012A
3.25
15.62
17.42

2.76
13.89
15.69

2013A
2.35
12.08
14.11

2014E
1.99
10.21
12.39

Forecast
2015E
1.69
8.64
10.25

Equity Value / FCF:

P / E:
P / BV:

91.49
20.61

19.14
17.62

(33.80)
17.50

17.02
12.62

9.89
10.06

6.20

5.07

4.36

3.55

2.84

DHG - Implied Per Share Value Range

Applicable
DHG
Figure

3,293,791
544,940
585,207

Minimum
Multiple

25th
Pecentile
Multiple

1.44
7.30
8.51

75th
Pecentile
Multiple

Maximum
Multiple

VND 28,643
38,310
66,328

VND 39,104
45,066
92,274

VND 49,564
51,821
118,220

VND 57,426
59,989
125,895

VND 124,988
107,448
156,681

VND 114,644
VND 132,284

VND 128,246
VND 135,941

VND 138,702
VND 140,809

VND 144,827
VND 146,945

VND 145,987
VND 153,563

2017E

2018E

Forecast
2016E

Median
Multiple

1.22
6.17
7.08

1.04
5.22
5.91

11.01
8.11

7.05
6.61

4.49
5.66

2.25

1.78

1.43

VNM Statistics
Net Debt (VND mn)
Shares Outstanding (mn)

(439,612)
65

Public
Trailing EV / Revenue:
Comparabl
es
Valuation Trailing EV / EBITDA:
Trailing P/E:

Discounted Cash Flow

Valuation
15.21% - 19.21% Discount Rate, 7.0x-9.0x Terminal Multiple_FCFF

15.21% - 19.21% Discount Rate, 7.0x-9.0x Terminal Multiple_FCFE

15.21% - 19.21% Discount Rate, 7.0x-9.0x Terminal Multiple_FCFE

15.21% - 19.21% Discount Rate, 7.0x-9.0x Terminal Multiple_FCFF
Trailing P/E:
Trailing EV / EBITDA:
Trailing EV / Revenue:

20,00

ng EV / Revenue:

ling EV / EBITDA:

Trailing P/E:

nal Multiple_FCFF

Current Share Price

(As of 26 Feb 2014):
VND 131.000

al Multiple_FCFE

20,000

Min.

40,000

25th
114,644
132,284
66,328
38,310
28,643

60,000

80,000

Median
128,246
135,941
92,274
45,066
39,104

100,000

120,000

75th
138,702
140,809
118,220
51,821
49,564

140,000

Max
144,827
146,945
125,895
59,989
57,426

145,987
153,563
156,681
107,448
124,988

160,000

180

75th to Max
Median to 75th
25th to Median
Min to 25th
Min Point

Price
2014):
000

140,000

160,000

180,000

Min Point

25 Point
114,644
132,284
66,328
38,310
28,643

Med Point
13,603
3,657
25,946
6,756
10,461

75 Point
10,456
4,868
25,946
6,756
10,461

6,125
6,136
7,674
8,167
7,862

Max Point
1,160
6,618
30,786
47,459
67,562

DHG Income Statement

Units: VND million, except per share data

2006A
Gross Revenue
Net Revenue
COGS
Gross profit
Selling expenses
G & A expenses
EBITDA
Deprication & Amortization
Operating Profit

2007A

873,072
868,192
402,747
465,445
311,953
55,881
97,611
13,170
84,441

1,285,210
1,269,280
581,535
687,745
466,083
58,447
163,215
23,856
139,359

Financial income
Interest income
Investment income
Other financial income
Financial expense
Interest expense
Change in provision for investment
Other financial expense
Gain/Loss from associates/joint ventures
Net other income
Earning before tax
Income tax paid
Deffered tax
Net income
Minority Interest

514
232
282
11,214
10,705
509

5,789
3,023
1,448
1,318
17,291
15,394
###
1,897

149
73,890
73,890
-

454
128,311
13,166
###
115,144
###

Net income attributable to Equity Shareholders

73,890

115,144

Allocation of D&A
COGS
%Total
Selling expense
%Total
G&A expense
%Total
Other income
Gain/Loss from fixed asset disposals
Income from disposals
Remaining cost of assets
Other income/expense

13,170

(130)
776
907
279

23,856
19,243
81%
3,241
14%
1,372
6%
184
792
609
270

OPERATING ASSUMPTIONS
Revenue Growth
Gross margin
Selling expense (% revenue)
Admin expense (% revenue)
Operating margin
EBITDA Margin
Other financial income (% revenue)
Other financial expense (% revenue)
Net Other income excl disposal (% revenue)
Effective tax rate
Net margin %
Net margin Growth
% Minority Interest/Net income
Effective cash interest rate
Investment yield
Debt interest rate

DETAILED SALES FORECAST

COSTS ANALYSIS
Cost breakdown
Materials & sub-materials
Labor
Depreciation
Buy from 3rd parties
Other costs
TOTAL COST
Cost as % of total cost
Materials & sub-materials
Labor
Depreciation
Buy from 3rd parties
Other costs
Cost as % of revenue
Materials & sub-materials
Labor
Depreciation
Buy from 3rd parties
Other costs

53.6%
35.9%
6.4%
9.7%
11.2%
0.1%
1.3%
0%
0%
8.5%
0%

46.2%
54.2%
36.7%
4.6%
11.0%
12.9%
0.5%
1.4%
0.0%
10%
9.1%
56%
0%

Total

WORKING DETAILS

1. PRODUCTION & SALES FORECAST

Capacity Value (VND bn')
Old Capacity (million units)
New Capacity (million units)
Total Capacity (million units)
Absolute Change
Old Capacity 2006-2012 CAGR
New Capacity 2014-2018 CAGR
Total Capacity Growth
Old Utilization Rate
New Utilization Rate
Capacity Value Growth
Capacity Growth
Value Growth
Sales Growth
Price Growth
Volume (account for Revenue) Growth
Other
%Sales/Capacity Value

823
2272
-

1377
3019
###

2272

3019
747

57%

75%
67%
33%
26%
46.2%

CROSSCHECK BY TOP-DOWN APPROACH

Total Market Value (USD bn)
CAGR
Assump market value will growth 12% yoy
Assump USD/VND by 2018
Total market value (VND bn)
% Market share (DHG)

=> Total Market Value by 2018 (USD bn):

=> CONCLUSTION

- Company Plan: ok & can be met (curren

2. SELLING EXPENSE FORECAST

Selling Staff Expense
3rd parties expense (Advertising)
Others
Total

% Total Selling Expense

Selling Staff Expense
3rd parties expense
Others
% Revenue
Selling Staff Expense
3rd parties expense
Others
Total

No. of selling staff

Revenue per staff
Revenue per staff growth CAGR
Selling expense per staff
Selling expense per staff growth

640
1,983

Selling Staff Expense if: Assump: Selling Staff Expense accounts for 1
Assump: Selling Staff Expense based on No. o
Difference

3. EFFECTIVE TAX RATE

%Old Capacity
Weighting
%New Capacity
Weighting
Total

2010A

Historical
2011A

2008A

2009A

2012A

1,518,437
1,485,464
673,106
812,358
516,330
101,912
194,116
28,520
165,596

1,770,345
1,746,022
801,109
944,913
404,027
110,765
430,121
29,779
400,342

2,052,248
2,034,525
986,554
1,047,971
476,166
130,383
441,422
41,463
399,959

2,510,825
2,490,880
1,244,599
1,246,281
549,215
178,757
518,309
53,597
464,712

2,949,286
2,931,076
1,441,208
1,489,868
697,583
209,547
582,738
66,768
515,970

22,329
16,391
1,888
4,050
38,495
5,216
8,478
24,801
142
(4,547)
145,025
18,673
3,642
129,994
1,132

31,295
27,262
1,396
2,637
23,597
3,389
20,208
(104)
1,653
409,590
46,968
(281)
362,340
5,270

40,566
36,238
454
3,874
3,408
2,011
1,397
(3,982)
1,010
434,145
51,234
425
383,335
2,173

48,895
41,908
489
6,498
7,183
2,039
5,144
(10,026)
(5,457)
490,942
72,904
(1,724)
419,762
4,236

42,177
39,103
422
2,653
4,453
2,612
1,841
(188)
31,281
584,787
93,826
(331)
491,292
5,371

128,862

357,071

381,162

415,527

485,921

28,520
21,339
75%
5,175
18%
2,006
7%

29,779
21,337
72%
5,506
18%
2,936
10%

41,463
29,439
71%
7,463
18%
4,561
11%

53,597
37,518
70%
9,648
18%
6,432
12%

66,768
46,070
69%
12,018
18%
8,680
13%

(44)
307
351
(4,502)

15
123
108
1,639

1,395
6,110
4,715
(385)

1,760
5,488
3,728
(7,217)

1,554
4,688
3,134
29,727

17.0%
54.7%
34.8%
6.9%
11.1%
13.1%
1.5%
2.6%
-0.3%
15%
8.8%
13%
0.9%

17.5%
54.1%
23.1%
6.3%
22.9%
24.6%
1.8%
1.4%
0.1%
11%
20.8%
179%
1.5%

16.5%
51.5%
23.4%
6.4%
19.7%
21.7%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
12%
18.8%
6%
0.6%

22.4%
50.0%
22.0%
7.2%
18.7%
20.8%
0.3%
0.2%
-0.3%
14%
16.9%
10%
1.0%

17.7%
50.8%
23.8%
7.1%
17.6%
19.9%
0.1%
0.1%
1.0%
16%
16.8%
17%
1.1%

6%
1%
5%

8%
1%
12%

7%
2%
13%

2010A

2011A
921,706
456,355
41,463
259,364
105,979
1,784,867

2012A
1,243,906
584,526
53,597
305,673
96,798
2,284,501

1,276,843
663,590
66,768
381,378
121,332
2,509,910

52%
26%
2%
15%
6%

54%
26%
2%
13%
4%

51%
26%
3%
15%
5%

45.3%
22.4%
2.0%
12.7%
5.2%

49.9%
23.5%
2.2%
12.3%
3.9%

43.6%
22.6%
2.3%
13.0%
4.1%

1561
2872
-

1899
2976
-

87.7%

91.7%

85.6%

2303
3340

3010
4073

3410
4175

2872
-147

2976
104

3340
364

4073
733

4175
102
0.1067291752

72%

74%

84%

102%

104%

13%
-5%
19%
17%

22%
4%
17%
18%

21%
12%
8%
17%

31%
22%
7%
22%

13%
3%
11%
18%
3%
8%
6%
86%

1.4

by 2018 (USD bn):

2.4
14%
4.74
25000
118,429
7% , of which value is:

7,782

& can be met (current market share: 8-10%). The hardest part is how the company develops new st

106,578
324,083
90,844
521,505

233,364
89,484
86,685
409,533

266,859
143,496
73,275
483,630

294,617
153,374
77,664
525,655

304,912
297,968
109,852
712,732

20%
62%
17%

798
1,861
134

57%
22%
21%

55%
30%
15%

56%
29%
15%

43%
42%
15%

13%
5%
5%
23%

13%
7%
4%
24%

12%
6%
3%
21%

10%
10%
4%
24%

967
1,806

985
2,066

946
2,633

1134
2,585
5%
269
19%

241

Expense accounts for 10% on Sale.

Expense based on No. of selling staff assumption

271

311

Circular Break?

2013A

2014E

1
2
Projected
2015E

3,449,065
###
1,751,817
###
243,130
669,999
96,393
573,606

4,058,594
###
2,061,404
###
282,038
792,462
139,391
653,071

4,775,842
###
2,425,701
###
327,105
937,284
147,406
789,878

52,418
45,763
425
6,229
8,619
21,233
(16,500)
3,886

55,833
48,018
484
7,330
35,604
32,497
(1,465)
4,573

73,912
64,823
464
8,626
15,895
12,238
(1,724)
5,381

34,980
652,385
163,096

41,162
714,461
35,723

48,436
896,332
44,817

489,289

678,738

851,515

489,289

678,738

851,515

3,699

6,182

7,274

17.7%
50.8%
24.3%
7.0%
19.4%
16.6%
0.2%
0.1%
1.0%
25%
14.2%
0%
1%

17.7%
50.8%
24.3%
6.9%
19.5%
16.1%
0.2%
0.1%
1.0%
5%
16.7%
39%
1%

17.7%
50.8%
24.3%
6.8%
19.6%
16.5%
0.2%
0.1%
1.0%
5%
17.8%
25%
1%

7%
1%
10%

7%
1%
10%

7%
1%
10%

2013

2014

2015

3800
4175
395
4570
395

4626
4175
948
5123
553

5559
4175
1,495
5,670
547

9%
104%
10%
11%
9%
9%
18%
6%
11%
0%
91%

12%
104%
24%
22%
12%
9%
18%
6%
11%
0%
88%

11%
104%
37%
20%
11%
9%
18%
6%
11%
0%
86%

billion VND

any develops new strategy to cooperate & outsource with new partners (domestic & foreigner) to a

358,797
350,626
129,265
838,688

422,205
412,590
152,110
986,904

496,818
238,911
90,911
282,389

10%
10%
4%
24%

10%
10%
4%
24%

10%
10%
4%
24%

1,266
2,725
5%
284
5%

1,412
2,874
5%
299
5%

1,576
3,030
5%
315
5%

358,797
358,797
-

25%
100%

25.00%

422,205
422,205
-

25%
20%
0%
80%
5.0%

496,818
496,818
-

25%
20%
0%
80%
5.0%

Yes
No
Projected
2016E

2017E

2018E

5,619,844
###
2,854,379
###
379,292
1,108,543
156,822
951,721

6,613,000
###
3,358,814
###
439,709
1,311,062
167,887
1,143,175

7,781,670
###
3,952,394
###
509,634
1,550,538
180,891
1,369,648

106,462
95,766
546
10,150
4,303
(2,029)
6,332

158,348
145,762
643
11,944
5,063
(2,388)
7,451

220,654
205,844
756
14,054
5,958
0
(2,810)
8,768

56,996
1,110,876
55,544

67,068
1,363,528
68,176

78,921
1,663,265
149,694

1,055,332

1,295,352

1,513,571

1,055,332

1,295,352

1,513,571

8,560

10,072

11,853

17.7%
50.8%
24.3%
6.7%
19.7%
16.9%
0.2%
0.1%
1.0%
5%
18.8%
24%
1%

17.7%
50.8%
24.3%
6.6%
19.8%
17.3%
0.2%
0.1%
1.0%
5%
19.6%
23%
1%

17.7%
50.8%
24.3%
6.5%
19.9%
17.6%
0.2%
0.1%
1.0%
9%
19.5%
17%
1%

7%
1%
10%

7%
1%
10%

7%
1%
10%

2016

2017

2018

6680
4175
2,100
6,275
605

11%
104%
52%
20%
11%
9%
18%
6%
11%
0%
84%

8028
4175
2,770
6,945
670

11%
104%
69%
20%
11%
9%
18%
6%
11%
0%
82%

9648
4175
3,511
7,686
741

39%
11%
104%
88%
20%
11%
9%
18% Cng ty phn u t doanh thu
6%
11%
0%
81%

partners (domestic & foreigner) to absorb the new capacity & maintain the market leader in dome

584,617
571,303
210,623
1,366,543

687,933
672,266
247,845
1,608,043

809,506
791,071
291,644
1,892,222

10%
10%
4%
24%

10%
10%
4%
24%

10%
10%
4%
24%

1,759
3,195
5%
332
5%

1,963
3,369
5%
350
5%

2,191
3,552
5%
369
5%

584,617
584,617
-

25%
20%
0%
80%
5.0%

687,933
687,933
-

25%
20%
0%
80%
5.0%

809,506
809,506
-

25%
20%
5%
80%
9.0%

9M 2012A

9M 2013A

Trailing IS

2,039,054
2,025,015
1,034,173
990,841
446,585
153,261
390,996
47,688
343,307

2,899,505
2,387,729
1,283,186
1,104,544
496,803
190,870
416,870
44,593
372,277

3,809,737
3,293,791
1,690,221
1,603,570
747,801
247,157
608,612
63,672
544,940

32,272

36,959

46,864

3,830
2,104

5,863
1,745

6,486
2,253
1,841

1,627
373,376
59,168
539
314,746
4,347

135,660
539,033
132,228
2,330
409,135
2,933

165,314
750,632
166,886
1,461
585,207
3,957

310,399

406,202

581,250

47,688
5,860

44,593
(1,489)

38,721

12,976

12,963

12,005

28,852

33,120

12,947

63,672

48.9%
22.1%
7.6%
19.3%
17.0%
1.6%
0.2%
0.1%
16%
15.5%

17.9%
46.3%
20.8%
8.0%
17.5%
15.6%
1.5%
0.2%
5.7%
25%
17.1%
30%

9M 2012A
9M 2013A
8,317,126
8,500,295
343,540
452,587
249,082
329,321
432,583
537,837
803,442
1,155,331
10,145,774
10,975,371

82.0%
3.4%
2.5%
4.3%
7.9%

77.4%
4.1%
3.0%
4.9%
10.5%

410.7%
17.0%
12.3%
21.4%
39.7%

356.0%
19.0%
13.8%
22.5%
48.4%

48.7%
22.7%
7.5%
18.5%
16.5%
1.4%
0.2%
5.0%
22%
17.8%

501.0%

459.7%

=> S tuyt i thay i trong d phng nm trong kh nng hp th ca th trng trong qu kh.

Cng ty phn u t doanh thu 8000 t ng vo nm 2018

in the market leader in domestic medicine production.

th trng trong qu kh.

DHG Balance Sheet

Units: VND million, except per share data
2006A
Current asset
Cash and Cash Equivalents
Short term investment (Excl bank deposits)
Provision for ST investment
Account receivables
Provision for receivables
Advance to suppliers
Inventories
Provision for Inventory deduction
ST prepayment
Other current assets
Total current assets

2007A

35,002
154,257
(500)
11,263
121,853
(500)
2,934
5,241
329,550

134,952
51,955
235,439
2,562
230,279
980
22,621
678,787

200
1,609
81,120
115,899
(34,779)
62,047
62,047
-

114
35,675
111,295
168,878
(57,583)
105,272
105,546
(274)
-

Long term assets

Long term collection
Long term investment
Provision for LT Investment
Tangible Fixed Assets
Historical price
Accum depreciation
Intangible Fixed Assets
Historical price
Accum Amortization
Financial Leased Assets
Historical price
Accum Amortization
Property Invesment
Historical price
Accum Amortization
Construction in progress
Goodwill
LT prepayment
Deferred tax assets
Other long-term assets
Total long term assets

4,975
3,346

12,214
-

153,297

1,301
265,871

Total assets

482,847

944,658

167,870
18,478

43,430
55,642

357
73,440
9,135
30,983
300,263

15,521
149,042
15,829
39,349
318,813

Current liabilities
Short term debt
Account payable
Deferred revenue
Tax payable
Accrued expenses
Bonus funds
Other current liabilities
Total current liabilities
Long term liabilties

Long term debt

Other long term liabilities
Total long term liabiltities

21,278
21,278

814
814

Total liabilities

321,541

319,627

Shareholder equity
Owner investment capital
Share capital surplus
Difference in currency
Retained earnings
Investment and development fund
Financial reserve fund
Other funds
Treasury stock
Total shareholder equity
Minority Interest

80,000
16,913
52,598
11,795
161,306
-

200,000
378,761
1,219
20,639
21,962
622,581
2,450

Total liabilities and owner equity

482,847

944,659

Check balance
ASSUMPTIONS
Balance Sheet
WORKING CAPITAL
Net working capital days
Account Receivable Days
Inventory Days
Account payable days
Working capital turnover
Receivable turnover
Inventory turnover
Payable turnover
Purchases
Other BS Assumptions
Cash as % Revenue
Short-term Investment as % Rev
Reserve for ST investment (% Investment)
Reserve for receivables (% Receivable)
Reserve for inventory (% Inventory)
Advance to suppliers (% Purchase)
ST prepayment (% Rev)
Other Current Assets % of Rev
Long term Investments as % Rev
Reserve for LT investment (% Investment)
Other assets as % of Rev
LT prepayment as % Rev
Deferred revenue as % Rev
Accrued expenses as % Rev
Other Current Liabilities % of COGS
Other liabilities as % COGS

2006A

2007A

175
64.85
110

147
56.03
111
20

5.63
3.31

6.51
3.30
18.62
689,961

4%
0%

11%
4%

1%
0%

2%
3%

0.0%

0.1%

8%

7%

Tax payable as % Rev

Cash Flow Statement

Dividend Payout Ratio
Transfer to funds (% NPAT)
Investment & development Fund
Financial reserve
Bonus fund
Bonus paid-out (% of profit)

2006A

2007A

2008A

2009A

2010A

Historical
2011A

2012A

211,742
2,263
(1,478)
216,770
(18,703)
28,788
308,236
770
35,138
783,527

584,129
16,037
250,455
(3,438)
26,408
311,577
(4,845)
534
31,612
1,212,468

642,519
###
306,720
(6,225)
28,194
350,125
(3,026)
1,283
122,444
1,442,034

467,084
340,586
(2,853)
79,033
519,861
(4,670)
1,432
90,219
1,490,692

718,975
449,467
(5,729)
84,261
517,870
(6,029)
819
58,025
1,817,660

72
73,839
(7,000)
106,799
191,418
(84,619)
100,684
101,089
(405)
###
2,003
16,735
3,671
1,455
298,255

35,769
(4,514)
118,833
231,889
(113,056)
112,920
113,635
(715)
5,262
36,189
3,414
1,631
309,504

###
44,494
(4,515)
167,841
310,199
(142,358)
127,878
131,895
(4,017)
6,457
7,785
(1,328)
7,720
###
22,430
3,785
1,610
377,701

21,987
(4,514)
255,331
443,231
(187,900)
157,377
163,250
(5,872)
46,746
20,446
5,510
2,131
505,015

21,165
(4,514)
279,742
522,620
(242,878)
167,001
174,924
(7,922)
70,391
19,348
5,841
1,630
560,605

1,081,782

1,521,972

1,819,735

1,995,707

2,378,265

8,455
67,746
18,863
248,518
(5,199)
23,883
362,265

73,980
71,353
35,634
283,984
7,658
(21,743)
450,865

12,802
86,291
###
40,019
269,414
29,489
33,541
471,556

21,116
123,619
28,298
291,890
44,548
34,555
544,024

19,485
73,734
33,520
399,314
62,659
64,820
653,532

15,193
15,193

52,942
52,942

###
59,141
59,141

58,224
58,224

21,263
21,263

377,458

503,807

530,697

602,248

674,795

200,000
378,761
###
62,247
38,461
21,962
(293)
701,139
3,185

266,630
378,761
330,992
4,658
29,745
(410)
1,010,376
7,790

269,130
###
###
364,342
204,329
64,215
###
(456)
1,280,322
8,716

651,764
377,313
286,384
66,542
(456)
1,381,547
11,911

653,764
476,512
491,137
66,762
(456)
1,687,719
15,750

1,081,782

1,521,973

1,819,735

1,995,707

2,378,265

(0)

(0)

(0)

2008A

2009A

2010A

2011A

2012A

172
55.56
146
30

158
48.84
141
32

144.3
50.0
122.4
28.1

147.9
47.4
127.6
27.1

155.6
49.2
131.4
25.0

6.57
2.50
12.17
751,064

7.47
2.59
11.57
804,449

7.30
2.98
13.01
1,025,103

7.70
2.86
13.48
1,414,334

31.6%
0.0%
#DIV/0!
-2.0%
-0.9%
2.8%
0.1%
6.0%
2.2%
-10.1%
0.1%
1.1%

18.8%
0.0%
#DIV/0!
-0.8%
-0.9%
5.6%
0.1%
3.6%
-0.2%
-20.5%
0.1%
0.8%

24.5%
0.0%
#DIV/0!
-1.3%
-1.2%
5.9%
0.0%
2.0%
0.7%
-21.3%
0.1%
0.7%

0.0%
13.2%
3.4%
6.0%

0.0%
11.7%
2.8%
4.7%

0.0%
13.6%
4.5%
1.5%

14%
0%

33%
1%

2%
5%

2%
2%

0.1%

0.1%

4%
2.3%

-3%
6.6%

7.42
2.78
14.59
1,439,217

2008A

2009A

2.0%

1.1%

1.1%

2010A

2011A

2012A
30%

20%
1%
14%

42%
0%
11%

9.9%

6.8%

2013A

2014E

669,119
495,482
(6,841)
87,230
664,418
(6,482)
1,707
133,593
2,038,226

787,367
638,700
(8,818)
98,253
744,030
(7,258)
2,009
157,202
2,411,485

37,265
(21,014)
931,897
1,269,011
(337,114)
173,591
183,670
(10,079)
68,981
29,701
8,171
2,533
1,231,127

Projected
2015E

2016E

2017E

1,178,831
722,088
(9,969)
119,424
918,183
(8,957)
2,364
184,983
3,106,947

1,725,925
909,977
(12,563)
135,935
1,026,019
(10,009)
2,782
217,674
3,995,740

2,695,315
1,046,747
(14,452)
165,438
1,268,753
(12,377)
3,273
256,142
5,408,839

29,307
(22,479)
863,755
1,337,993
(474,238)
180,507
192,853
(12,346)
81,172
34,950
8,171
2,981
1,178,364

34,486
(24,204)
799,906
1,419,165
(619,259)
187,766
202,496
(14,730)
95,517
41,127
8,171
3,507
1,146,276

40,581
(26,233)
741,108
1,514,681
(773,574)
195,383
212,621
(17,237)
112,397
48,395
8,171
4,127
1,123,929

47,753
(28,620)
688,254
1,627,078
(938,825)
203,378
223,252
(19,873)
132,260
56,947
8,171
4,856
1,112,999

3,269,352

3,589,849

4,253,222

5,119,669

6,521,838

405,172
196,274
68,000
443,595
70,736
60,387
1,244,164

244,765
102,773
80,017
521,988
81,940
71,059
1,102,543

256,989
94,158
614,236
95,996
83,616
1,144,996

157,681
110,798
722,785
113,417
98,393
1,203,075

344,514
130,379
850,518
134,800
115,782
1,575,993

60,550
60,550

75,245
75,245

93,243
93,243

115,253
115,253

142,129
142,129

1,304,715

1,177,788

1,238,239

1,318,327

1,718,122

653,764
608,029
637,924
65,376
(456)
1,964,638
-

653,764
851,831
841,545
65,376
(456)
2,412,061
-

653,764
1,199,299
1,097,000
65,376
(456)
3,014,983
-

653,764
1,669,057
1,413,599
65,376
(456)
3,801,341
-

653,764
2,282,827
1,802,205
65,376
(456)
4,803,717
-

3,269,352

3,589,849

4,253,222

5,119,669

6,521,838

2013A

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

150.4
50.0
127.1
26.7

153.4
51.0
128.7
26.3

155.1
52.0
129.1
26.0

155.0
53.0
128.3
26.3

156.5
54.0
128.7
26.2

7.3
2.9
13.7
1,843,796

7.2
2.8
13.9
2,076,803

7.0
2.8
14.0
2,524,294

6.9
2.8
13.9
2,873,301

6.8
2.8
13.9
3,496,920

19.4%
0.0%
0.0%
-1.4%
-1.0%
4.7%
0.0%
3.9%
0.7%
-56.4%
0.1%
0.9%

19.4%
0.0%
0.0%
-1.4%
-1.0%
4.7%
0.0%
3.9%
0.7%
-5.0%
0.1%
0.9%

19.4%
0.0%
0.0%
-1.4%
-1.0%
4.7%
0.0%
3.9%
0.7%
-5.0%
0.1%
0.9%

19.4%
0.0%
0.0%
-1.4%
-1.0%
4.7%
0.0%
3.9%
0.7%
-5.0%
0.1%
0.9%

19.4%
0.0%
0.0%
-1.4%
-1.0%
4.7%
0.0%
3.9%
0.7%
-5.0%
0.1%
0.9%

0.0%
12.9%
3.6%
3.6%

0.0%
12.9%
3.6%
3.8%

0.0%
12.9%
3.6%
4.0%

0.0%
12.9%
3.6%
4.2%

0.0%
12.9%
3.6%
4.4%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

2013A
25.0%

2014E
25.0%

2015E
25.0%

2016E
25.0%

2017E
25.0%

30.0%
0%
10.0%

30.0%
0%
10.0%

30.0%
0%
10.0%

30.0%
0%
10.0%

30.0%
0%
10.0%

8.3%

8.3%

8.3%

8.3%

8.3%

2018E

9M 2013A

3,548,330
1,298,414
(17,926)
188,862
1,431,509
(13,965)
3,852
301,408
6,740,485

464,323
220,000
427,203
(6,469)
120,178
748,409
(5,960)
2,801
91,985
2,062,468

56,191
(31,430)
642,395
1,759,338
(1,116,944)
211,770
234,414
(22,645)
155,633
67,011
8,171
5,715
1,115,456

37,265
(21,014)
277,347
549,271
(271,923)
177,396
188,058
(10,662)
216,867
17,388
8,171
2,489
715,909

7,855,941

2,778,377

0
228,274
153,420
1,000,825
159,785
136,243
1,678,546

24,711
258,683
47,075
387,751
78,768
75,691
872,679

174,905
174,905

45,779
45,779

1,853,451

918,458

653,764
3,027,528
2,256,276
65,376
(456)
6,002,489
-

653,764
421,566
701,397
66,930
(456)
1,843,201
16,718

7,855,941

2,778,377

2018E
157.5
55.0
128.7
26.2
6.6
2.8
13.9
3,992,033

1,513,725

19.4%
0.0%
0.0%
-1.4%
-1.0%
4.7%
0.0%
3.9%
0.7%
-5.0%
0.1%
0.9%

19.4%
9.2%
0.0%
-1.5%
-0.8%
7.9%
0.1%
3.9%
1.6%
-56.4%
0.1%
0.7%

0.0%
12.9%
3.6%
4.6%

0.0%
16.2%
6%
3.6%

2.0%

2018E
25.0%
30.0%
0%
10.0%
8.3%

2.0%

DHG Cash Flow Statement

Units: VND million, except per share data

Historical

2012A
Profit before tax
Plus Depreciation & amortization
Minus reserve provisions
Minus Unrealized FX gain/loss
(Gain)/loss from investment activities
(Income) from interest/dividend
Gain/Loss from disposal of fixed asset
Plus interest expense
Cash Flow Before Change in Working Capital
(Inc)/Dec in A/R
(Inc)/Dec in Inventory
(Inc)/Dec in Prepaid Expenses
(Inc)/Dec in Other Current Assets
Inc/(Dec) in A/P
Inc/(Dec) in Other Current Liabilities
Change in Working Capital
Interest payment
Tax payment
Other Incomes/(Losses)
Cash Flow From Operating Activities
Cashflow from Investing Activities
Capital Expenditure
Including:
Change in Tangible Fixed Assets
Change in Intangible Fixed Assets
Change in Construction in Progress
Changes in properties investment
Income from Fixed asset disposals
Changes in ST-LT Financial Investments
Interest, dividends, shared profit from investment
Changes in other LT assets
Cash Flow from Investment Activities
Cashflow from Financing Activities
Issuance of new shares
Stock Buyback
Increase / (Pay-off) of ST loans
Increase / (Pay-off) of LT loans

2013E

584,787
66,768
4,236

652,385
96,393
18,065

168
(39,524)
(1,554)
2,612

(46,189)

617,491
(108,881)
1,991
1,711
30,805
(49,885)
142,912
18,653
(2,612)
(93,826)
-

741,887
(46,015)
(146,548)
(11,242)
(78,537)
122,540
58,578
(101,224)
(21,233)
(165,427)
-

539,706

454,004

(131,455)

(753,727)

(32,310)
(14,905)
(84,240)
4,688
822
39,357
501

(746,391)
(8,746)
1,410
-

(86,087)

(724,541)

2,000
(1,631)
-

385,688
-

21,233

(16,100)

46,189
(903)

Dividend payment
Changes in other LT liabilities
Other distribution from equity

(130,533)
(36,961)
(33,105)

(163,441)
39,287
(40,852)

Cash Flow from Financing Activities

(200,230)

220,682

NET CASH FLOW IN YEAR

253,390

(49,856)

Cash - Beginning
Cash - Ending
Cash on Balance Sheet
Difference

467,084
720,474
718,975
1,498

718,975
669,119
669,119
0

CF Working
Do
Financial income
LDeposit interest
CDividends received
L FX gain
TDisposal of investment
TOther financial incomes

42,177
39,103
422
2,002
20
631

Ch
Financial Expense
CInterest expense
LFX loss
COther financial expenses

4,453
2,612
1,709
132

LaProfit/(loss) in associates

(188)

INDIRECT METHOD
Projected

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

714,461
139,391
4,219

896,332
147,406
4,574

1,110,876
156,822
5,675

1,363,528
167,887
6,644

1,663,265
180,891
7,872

(48,503)

(65,287)

(96,312)

(146,405)

(206,600)

32,497

12,238

842,065
(143,218)
(79,612)
(5,551)
(34,632)
(93,501)
101,082
(255,432)
(32,497)
(35,723)
-

995,263
(83,387)
(174,153)
(6,532)
(48,952)
154,216
118,946
(39,862)
(12,238)
(44,817)
-

1,177,061
(187,889)
(107,836)
(7,686)
(49,202)
(99,308)
139,967
(311,955)
(55,544)
-

1,391,654
(136,770)
(242,734)
(9,044)
(67,971)
186,833
164,702
(104,984)
(68,176)
-

1,645,427
(251,668)
(162,756)
(10,642)
(68,690)
(116,240)
193,809
(416,187)
(0)
(149,694)
-

518,414

898,346

809,563

1,218,494

1,079,546

(90,355)

(105,160)

(122,522)

(142,891)

(166,796)

(68,981)
(9,183)
(12,191)
-

(81,172)
(9,643)
(14,345)
-

(95,517)
(10,125)
(16,880)
-

(112,397)
(10,631)
(19,863)
-

(132,260)
(11,163)
(23,373)
-

7,958

(5,179)

(6,095)

(7,172)

(8,439)

48,503

65,287

96,312

146,405

206,600

(448)

(527)

(620)

(729)

(858)

(34,342)

(45,579)

(32,924)

(4,387)

30,507

(160,407)
-

(244,765)
-

0
-

(163,441)
14,695
(56,670)

(163,441)
17,998
(71,095)

(163,441)
22,009
(88,113)

(163,441)
26,876
(108,152)

(163,441)
32,776
(126,372)

(365,823)

(461,304)

(229,544)

(244,717)

(257,037)

118,249

391,464

547,094

969,389

853,016

669,119
787,367
787,367
-

787,367
1,178,831
1,178,831
-

1,178,831
1,725,925
1,725,925
-

1,725,925
2,695,315
2,695,315
-

2,695,315
3,548,330
3,548,330
-

DHG Financial Ratios

Units: VND million, except per share data
2005A

2006A

Historical
2011A

2012A

2013F

2014F

Projected
2015F

2016F

2017F

2018F

2.6%
6.0%
6.7%

22.4%
26.2%
18.9%
15.3%
37.1%
16.2%
29.3%
17.4%
13.1%
9.0%

17.7%
15.8%
19.5%
27.0%
17.2%
11.0%
24.6%
12.4%
19.1%
16.9%

17.7%
17.8%
17.6%
20.2%
16.0%
11.2%
44.4%
15.0%
11.6%
0.7%

17.7%
17.7%
17.7%
17.7%
16.0%
13.9%
44.6%
18.3%
9.5%
38.7%

17.7%
17.7%
17.7%
17.7%
16.0%
20.9%
5.7%
18.3%
25.5%
25.5%

17.7%
17.7%
17.7%
17.7%
16.0%
20.5%
6.4%
18.3%
23.9%
23.9%

17.7%
17.7%
17.7%
17.7%
15.9%
20.1%
7.1%
18.3%
22.7%
22.7%

17.7%
17.7%
17.7%
17.7%
15.9%
19.8%
7.7%
18.3%
22.0%
16.8%

51.5%
19.7%
21.7%
21.3%
18.7%
22.8%
33.3%
26.1%

50.0%
18.7%
20.8%
19.7%
16.7%
21.8%
31.2%
25.6%

50.8%
17.6%
19.9%
20.0%
16.6%
22.2%
31.7%
24.2%

50.8%
16.6%
19.4%
18.9%
14.2%
17.3%
26.8%
15.5%

50.8%
16.1%
19.5%
17.6%
16.7%
19.8%
31.0%
24.3%

50.8%
16.5%
19.6%
18.8%
17.8%
21.7%
31.4%
26.8%

50.8%
16.9%
19.7%
19.8%
18.8%
22.5%
31.0%
26.4%

50.8%
17.3%
19.8%
20.6%
19.6%
22.3%
30.1%
25.6%

50.8%
17.6%
19.9%
21.4%
19.5%
21.1%
28.0%
22.9%

0.01
0.01
0.70

0.02
0.01
0.69

0.01
0.01
0.71

0.21
0.12
0.60

0.10
0.07
0.67

0.00
0.00
0.71

0.00
0.00
0.74

0.00
0.00
0.74

0.00
0.00
0.76

1.78
2.74

1.99
2.78

1.10
1.64

1.51
2.19

1.91
2.71

2.63
3.43

3.16
4.02

228
4.4

198
8.1

27
0.4

2007A

2008A

2009A

2010A

46.2%
44.4%
47.8%
49.4%
4.6%

17.0%
15.7%
18.1%
10.8%
74.4%

17.5%
19.0%
16.3%
-21.8%
8.7%

16.5%
23.1%
10.9%
17.9%
17.7%

67.2%
73.7%
55.8%

18.9%
13.0%
11.9%

121.6%
182.4%
177.1%

53.6%

54.2%

54.7%

54.1%

11.2%
8.5%
8.5%
15.3%
45.8%

12.9%
10.1%
9.1%
16.1%
29.4%

13.1%
9.8%
8.7%
12.7%
19.5%

24.6%
23.5%
20.5%
27.4%
41.7%

Financial leverage
Debt Equity Ratio
Debt to Total Asset ratio
Equity Multiplier

1.04
0.35
0.33

0.07
0.05
0.66

0.01
0.01
0.65

0.07
0.05
0.66

Liquidity
Quick Ratio
Current Ratio

0.69
1.10

1.41
2.13

1.31
2.16

2.00
2.69

32

118

Growth Rates (%)

Sales
COGS
Gross profit
Selling expenses
Administration expenses
EBITDA
Depreciation and Amortization
EBIT / Operating profit
EBT
NPAT

Profitability
Gross profit margin
EBITDA margin
EBIT margin / Operating profit margin
EBT margin
NPAT margin
Return on Assets (ROA)
Return on Equity (ROE)
ROIC

Coverage ratios
Interest coverage (EBITDA/interest)
CFO/Current liabilities
CFO/Interest bearing debt
Efficiency
Receivable Turnover
Days Receivable Outstanding
Inventory Turnover
Days Inventory Outstanding
Payables Turnover
Days Payable Outstanding
Business Cycle
Current Asset Turnover
Fixed Asset Turnover
Asset Turnover
Purchasing

5.6
65
3.3
110

6.5
56
3.3
111

6.6
56
2.5
146

7.5
49
2.6
141
11.6
32

2.6
12.1
1.8

2.5
14.1
1.8

2.0
14.0
1.5

1.7
15.9
1.3

2.32
3.06

199
4.3
157.7 No debt

7.3
50
3.0
122
13.0
28
144
1.5
15.4
1.2

No debt

7.7
47
2.9
128
13.5
27
148
1.7
14.1
1.3

No debt

7.4
49
2.8
131
14.6
25
156
1.8
13.6
1.3

0.5
No debt

7.3
50
2.9
127
13.7
27
150
1.8
8.9
1.2

0.8
No debt

7.2
51
2.8
129
13.9
26
153
1.8
7.6
1.2

2.47
3.32

0.7
No debt

7.0
52
2.8
129
14.0
26
155
1.7
9.4
1.2

0.8
No debt

6.9
53
2.8
128
13.9
26
155
1.6
11.7
1.2

0.6
No debt

6.8
54
2.8
129
13.9
26
156
1.4
14.5
1.1

6.6
55
2.8
129
13.9
26
158
1.3
17.8
1.1

DHG Shareholder Equity

Units: VND million, except per share data
SHAREHOLDER EQUITY
Owner investment capital
Share capital surplus
Difference in currency
Retained earnings
Investment and development fund
Financial reserve fund
Other funds
Treasury stock
Total shareholder equity
Retained Earnings
Beginning balance
Profit for the year
Transfer to funds
Investment & Development fund (10%)
Financial Reserve (Max (5%, 10% chartered))
Bonus funds
Dividend payment
Increase charter capital
Others
Ending balance
Detailed Calculation
Share Capital
Beginning balance
New capital
Bonus/Right issue
Ending balance

2011A
651,764
377,313
286,384
66,542
(456)
1,381,547
2011A
364,342
415,527
(141,891)
(83,428)
(2,326)
(56,137)
(260,665)
377,313
2011A
269,130
2,500
380,135
651,764

Share premium
Beginning balance
Increase
Decrease
Ending balance

(378,761)
-

Treasury stock
Beginning balance
Increase
Decrease
Ending balance

(456)
(456)

378,761

Investment & development Fund (10% NPAT)

Beginning balance
Increase
Decrease
Ending balance

20.1%
204,329
83,428
(1,373)
286,384

Financial reserve (Max (5%, 10% chartered))

Beginning balance

0.6%
64,215

Increase
Decrease
Ending balance
Non-equity funds
Bonus fund (10% NPAT)
Beginning balance
Increase
Decrease
Ending balance

2,326
66,542

13.5%
29,489
56,137
(41,078)
44,548

Historical
2012A
653,764
476,512
491,137
66,762
(456)
1,687,719

2013A
653,764
608,029
637,924
65,376
(456)
1,964,638

2014E
653,764
851,831
841,545
65,376
(456)
2,412,061

2012A
377,313
485,921
(256,190)
(204,753)
(220)
(51,217)
(130,533)
-

2013A
476,511
489,289
(194,330)
(146,787)
1,386
(48,929)
(163,441)

2014E
608,029
678,738
(271,495)
(203,621)
(67,874)
(163,441)

476,511

608,029

851,831

2012A
651,764
2000
653,764

2013A

2014E

Projected
2015E
653,764
1,199,299
1,097,000
65,376
(456)
3,014,983
2015E
851,831
851,515
(340,606)
(255,455)
(85,152)
(163,441)

1,199,299
2015E

653,764

653,764

653,764

653,764

653,764

653,764

(456)
(456)

(456)

(456)

(456)

(456)

(456)

(456)

491,137
146,787

637,924
203,621

841,545
255,455

637,924

841,545

1,097,000

66,762

65,376

65,376

42%
286,384
204,753
491,137
0%
66,542

###
###
-

220

(1,386)

66,762

65,376

65,376

65,376

11%
44,548
51,217
(33,105)
62,659

62,659
48,929
(40,852)
70,736

70,736
67,874
(56,670)
81,940

81,940
85,152
(71,095)
95,996

Projected
2016E
653,764
1,669,057
1,413,599
65,376
(456)
3,801,341

2017E
653,764
2,282,827
1,802,205
65,376
(456)
4,803,717

2018E
653,764
3,027,528
2,256,276
65,376
(456)
6,002,489

2016E
1,199,299
1,055,332
(422,133)
(316,600)
(105,533)
(163,441)

2017E
1,669,057
1,295,352
(518,141)
(388,606)
(129,535)
(163,441)

2018E
2,282,827
1,513,571
(605,428)
(454,071)
(151,357)
(163,441)

1,669,057

2,282,827

3,027,528

2016E

2017E

2018E

653,764

653,764

653,764

653,764

653,764

653,764

(456)

(456)

(456)

(456)

(456)

(456)

1,097,000
316,600

1,413,599
388,606

1,802,205
454,071

1,413,599

1,802,205

2,256,276

65,376

65,376

65,376

65,376

65,376

65,376

95,996
105,533
(88,113)
113,417

113,417
129,535
(108,152)
134,800

134,800
151,357
(126,372)
159,785

DHG Fixed Assets

Units: VND million, except per share data
FIXED ASSETS
Tangible Fixed Assets
Historical price
Accum depreciation
Intangible Fixed Assets
Historical price
Accum Amortization
Investment Properties
Historical price
Accum Amortization

2010A
167,841
310,199
(142,358)
127,878
131,895
(4,017)
6,457
7,785
(1,328)

Historical
2011A
255,331
443,231
(187,900)
157,377
163,250
(5,872)
-

29,302
10.81%
9.25

45,542
12.09%
8.27

3,301
2.69%
37.19

1,856
1.26%
79.53

Net Depreciation for Investment Properties

Depreciation rate
Depreciation period

1,328
34.11%
2.93

(1,328)
-34.11%
-2.93

Total Depreciation & Amortization

D&A / Sales
D&A / COGS

33,931
1.67%
3.44%

46,070
1.85%
3.70%

231,889
44,830
47,966
(8,916)
(5,571)
310,199

310,199
48,382
84,194
(7,183)
7,639
443,231

113,635
24,565
(2,784)

131,895
30,048
(2,540)
(2,332)
6,179
163,250

Net Depreciation for Tangible

Depreciation rate
Depreciation period
Net Amortization in year
Amortization rate
Amortization period

COSTS
Tangible fixed assets
Beginning
Purchased in year
Transferred from CIP
Sold in year
Other adjustment
Ending
Intangible assets
Beginning
Purchased in year
Transferred from CIP
Sold in year
Other adjustment
Ending
Investment Properties
Beginning
Purchased in year
Transferred from CIP
Sold in year
Other adjustment

(3,521)
131,895

12,411
(4,627)

7,785
(7,785)

Ending

7,785

Depreciation
Tangible fixed assets
Beginning
Increased in year
Sold in year
Other adjustment
Ending

113,056
35,952
(5,021)
(1,630)
142,358

142,358
50,147
(5,791)
1,186
187,900

715
3,301

4,017
1,823
33
5,872

Intangible assets
Beginning
Increased in year
Sold in year
Other adjustment
Ending

4,017

Investment Properties
Beginning
Increased in year
Sold in year
Other adjustment
Ending

1,328
-

1,328
1,328

(1,328)
-

Remaining assets
Tangible fixed assets
Intangible assets
Investment Properties
Sold assets

302,176
167,841
127,878
6,457
3,895

412,708
255,331
157,377
3,725

CONSTRUCTION IN PROGRESS
Beginning balance
Increase in year
Transfer to tangible fixed assets
Transfer to intangible fixed assets
Other changes
Ending balance

5,262
53,323
(47,966)
(2,784)
(115)
7,720

7,720
125,930
(84,194)
(2,540)
(169)
46,746

Net book value

2013-2018 PROJECTION
CAPEX PLAN
Maintenance
New Capex
Total New Capex
Total Tangible assets
Maintenance rate (% of sales)
Depreciation of Tangible Assets
Old assets
New assets in 2013
New assets in 2014

2011
133,032

4%

443,231
5%

45,542

New assets in 2015

New assets in 2016
New assets in 2017
New assets in 2018
Total Depreciation
Amortization of Intangible Assets
Old assets
New assets in 2013
New assets in 2014
New assets in 2015
New assets in 2016
New assets in 2017
New assets in 2018
Total Amortization
Assumption
Depreciation period of new assets (year)
Tangible
Intangible
Depreciation period of first year (months)
Tangible
Intangible
Increase in fixed assets (% old assets)
Intangible

45,542

storical

Projected
2015E
799,906
1,419,165
(619,259)
187,766
202,496
(14,730)
-

2012A
279,742
522,620
(242,878)
167,001
174,924
(7,922)
-

2013A
931,897
1,269,011
(337,114)
173,591
183,670
(10,079)
-

2014E
863,755
1,337,993
(474,238)
180,507
192,853
(12,346)
-

54,978
11.38%
8.78

94,236
10.52%
9.51

137,124
10.52%
9.51

145,021
10.52%
9.51

154,315
10.52%
9.51

2,050
1.21%
82.48

2,156
1.51%
66.4

2,267
1.51%
66.4

2,384
1.51%
66.4

2,507
1.51%
66.4

n/a

96,393
2.79%
5.68%

443,231
32,310
58,659
(11,580)
0
522,620

522,620

1,269,011

1,337,993

1,419,165

746,391

68,981

81,172

95,517

1,269,011

1,337,993

1,419,165

1,514,681

174,924
8,746

183,670
9,183

192,853
9,643

202,496
10,125

183,670

192,853

202,496

212,621

147,406
3.09%
6.27%

57,028
1.95%
3.96%

163,250
11,032
(1,936)
(1,295)
3,872
174,924

139,391
3.43%
6.98%

2016E
741,108
1,514,681
(773,574)
195,383
212,621
(17,237)
-

156,822
2.79%
5.67%

187,900
64,626
(9,649)
0
242,878

242,878
94,236

337,114
137,124

474,238
145,021

619,259
154,315

337,114

474,238

619,259

773,574

5,872
2,141
(91)
0
7,922

7,922
2,156

10,079
2,267

12,346
2,384

14,730
2,507

10,079

12,346

14,730

17,237

446,743
279,742
167,001
3,134

1,105,489
931,897
173,591
-

1,044,262
863,755
180,507
-

987,671
799,906
187,766
-

936,491
741,108
195,383
-

46,746
84,240
(58,659)
(1,936)
0
70,391

70,391
744,981
(746,391)

68,981
81,172
(68,981)

81,172
95,517
(81,172)

95,517
112,397
(95,517)

68,981

81,172

95,517

112,397

2012
79,389

2013
68,981
676,000
744,981

2014
81,172
81,172

2015
95,517
95,517

2016
112,397
112,397

522,620
3%

1,269,011
2%

1,337,993
2%

1,419,165
2%

1,514,681
2%

54,978

54,978
39,259

54,978
78,518
3,628

54,978
78,518
7,257

54,978
78,518
7,257

54,978

4,269

8,539
5,024

94,236

137,124

145,021

154,315

2,050
106

2,050
106
111

2,050
106
111
117

2,050
106
111
117
123

2,156

2,267

2,384

2,507

8.78
82.48

9.51
66.40

9.51
66.40

9.51
66.40

12
12

12
12

12
12

12
12

5.00%

5.00%

5.00%

5.00%

2017E
688,254
1,627,078
(938,825)
203,378
223,252
(19,873)
-

2018E
642,395
1,759,338
(1,116,944)
211,770
234,414
(22,645)
-

165,251
10.52%
9.51

178,119
10.52%
9.51

2,636
1.51%
66.4

2,771
1.51%
66.4

167,887
2.54%
5.16%

180,891
2.32%
4.72%

1,514,681

1,627,078

112,397

132,260

1,627,078

1,759,338

212,621
10,631

223,252
11,163

223,252

234,414

Ending Balance = Beginning balance + Construction in Progre

773,574
165,251

938,825
178,119

938,825

1,116,944

17,237
2,636

19,873
2,771

19,873

22,645

891,632
688,254
203,378
-

854,164
642,395
211,770
-

112,397
132,260
(112,397)

132,260
155,633
(132,260)

132,260

155,633

2017
132,260
132,260

2018
155,633
155,633

1,627,078
2%

1,759,338
2%

54,978
78,518
7,257

54,978
78,518
7,257

329,866
431,847
32,655

Note:
- Historical price of Tangible Fixed Assets at the
- Assume new assets only brought into operation

8,539
10,048
5,912
165,251

2,050
106
111
117
123
129

8,539
10,048
11,824
6,957
178,119

2,636

2,050
106
111
117
123
129
135
2,771

9.51
66.40

9.51
66.40

12
12

12
12

5.00%

5.00%

29,886
25,120
17,736
6,957

nce + Construction in Progress.

Tangible Fixed Assets at the ending of year 1 = Historical price of Tangible Fixed Assets at the end of year 0 + Construction in Progress of
ets only brought into operation since the beginning of next year

year 0 + Construction in Progress of year 0

WACC Analysis - DHG

Discount Rate Calculation - Assumptions
Risk-Free Rate:
Equity Risk Premium:
Interest Rate on Debt:
Comparable Companies - Unlevered Beta Calculation
Levered
Name
Beta
Domesco
0.78
Traphaco
0.82
Imexpharm
0.50
Median

0.78

DHG

0.66

DHG - Levered Beta & WACC Calculation

Unlevered
Beta
DHG
Cost of Equity Based on Comparables:
Cost of Equity Based on Historical Beta:
WACC
Based on comparables
Based on Historical beta

0.71

Debt
72
430
-

Debt
405,172

7.78%
13.25%
10.00%

Equity
Value
1,189
2,122
919

Tax Rate
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%

Unlevered
Beta
0.75 Unlevered beta = Levered beta / (1+(1-t)*D/E)
0.71
0.50
0.71

Equity
Value
8,562,985

Tax Rate
25%

Levered
Beta
0.74
17.54%
16.52%

17.09%
16.23%

DHG DCF Calculation

FCFF Projection
VNDm
EBIT
Tax Paid
EBIAT
Add back:
Depreciation & Amortization Expense
Minus:
Change in Net Working Capital
Capital Expenditure
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF)
FCFF growth
WACC
Discount Period
Discount Factor
Present Value of FCFF

17.09%

Enterprise Value (VND mn)

Cumulative Present Value of FCFF

2,804,669

Terminal Value (by EV/EBITDA)

Terminal EBITDA (2018E)
Exit Multiple
Terminal Value
Discount Factor
Present Value of Terminal Value
% of Enterprise Value

8,441,155

WACC

WACC

Enterprise Value

1,550,538
8.0x
12,404,306
0.5
5,636,487
66.77%

8,441,155
15.09%
16.09%
17.09%
18.09%
19.09%

9,351,473
15.09%
16.09%
17.09%
18.09%

WACC
WACC

WACC

WACC

19.09%

143,063
15.09%
16.09%
17.09%
18.09%
19.09%

1.5%
15.09%
16.09%
17.09%
18.09%
19.09%

67%
15.09%
16.09%
17.09%
18.09%
19.09%

FCFE Projection

Minus:
Add:

VNDm
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF)
After-tax Interest Expense
Net Debt Borrowing
Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)
FCFE growth
Cost of Equity
Discount Period
Discount Factor
Present Value of FCFE

17.54%

Equity Value (VND mn)

Cumulative Present Value of FCFE

2,787,507

FCFE Terminal Value (by growth rate)

2018 FCFE

1,905,426

Growth rate
Terminal Value
Discount Factor
PV of Terminal Value
As of % of Equity Value
Equity Value

1.5%
11,875,766
0.45
5,292,979
65.50%
8,080,486

Cost of Equity

8,080,486
15.54%
16.54%
17.54%
18.54%
19.54%

Cost of Equity

123,599
15.54%
16.54%
17.54%
18.54%
19.54%

2011A
492,981
71,475
421,505

2012A
587,399
93,912
493,486

2013E
673,618
168,405
505,214

2014E
746,958
37,348
709,610

53,597

66,768

96,393

139,391

171,284
210,224
93,595

(18,653)
131,455
447,452

101,224
753,727
(253,345)
-157%

255,432
90,355
503,214
-299%

1.00
(253,345)
-157%

1.0
0.85
429,774
-299%

Implied Equity Value and Share Price

(VND mn, except per share)
Enterprise Value
Less: Total Debt
Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents

8,441,155
127,031
783,287

Implied Equity Value

9,351,473

Price per Share

VND 143,063

P/E 2013E

Enterprise Value (VND mn)

Exit Multiple
7.5x
8.0x

7.0x

7.0x
910,318
910,318
910,318
910,318

Equity Value (VND mn)

Exit Multiple
7.5x
8.0x
910,318
910,318
910,318
910,318
910,318
910,318
910,318
910,318

19.1x

8.5x

8.5x
910,318
910,318
910,318
910,318

910,318

910,318

910,318

910,318

7.0x

Price per Share (VND)

Exit Multiple
7.5x
8.0x

8.5x

7.0x

Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate

Exit Multiple
7.5x
8.0x

8.5x

PV of Terminal Value as % of Enterprise Value

Exit Multiple
7.5x
8.0x

7.0x

2011A
93,595
1,743
8,313
100,165

2012A
447,452
2,194
(1,631)
443,627

8.5x

2013E
(253,345)
15,925
385,688
116,418

2014E
503,214
30,872
(160,407)
311,935

1.00
116,418

1.0
0.85
265,382

Implied Equity Value and Share Price

(VND mn, except per share)
Equity Value
Less: Cash & Cash Equivalents
Plus: Debt
Implied Enterprise Value

8,080,486
783,287
405,172
8,863,773

Implied Price per Share

VND 123,599

P/E 2013E

16.5x

Equity Value (VND m)

Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate
-0.5%

0.5%

1.5%

-0.5%

Price per Share (VND)

Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate
0.5%
1.5%

2.5%

2.5%

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

#VALUE!

2015E
908,570
45,428
863,141

2016E
1,110,876
55,544
1,055,332

2017E
1,363,528
68,176
1,295,352

2018E
1,663,265
149,694
1,513,571

147,406

156,822

167,887

180,891

39,862
105,160
865,525
72%

311,955
122,522
777,678
-10%

104,984
142,891
1,215,364
56%

416,187
166,796
1,905,426
57%

2.0
0.73
631,327
72%

3.0
0.62
484,464
-10%

4.0
0.53
646,629
56%

5.0
0.45
865,821
57%

Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate

FCFF Terminal Value (2018E)
WACC
Terminal Value
Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate

9.0x

9.0x
910,318
910,318
910,318
910,318

1,905,426
17.09%
12,404,306
1.5%

910,318

9.0x

9.0x

9.0x

2015E
865,525
11,626
(244,765)
609,134

2016E
777,678
777,678

2017E
1,215,364
1,215,364
22%

2018E
1,905,426

2.0
0.72
440,888

3.0
0.62
478,876

4.0
0.52
636,703

5.0
0.45
849,240

1,905,426
15%

3.5%

3.5%
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!

DHG
Benchmarking Analysis - Financial Statistics and Ratios
(VND millions, except VND per share data)
Market Valuation
As of 26 Feb 2014
Company
Domesco
Traphaco
Imexpharm
Dc Hu Giang

Ticker
DMC
TRA
IMP
DHG

Equity
Value (VNDmn)
787,173
2,097,242
910,530
8,562,985

General Information
As of 26 Feb 2014
Price
Company
Domesco
Traphaco
Imexpharm
Dc Hu Giang

Ticker
DMC
TRA
IMP

(VND)
44,200
85,000
55,500

DHG

131,000.00

Market Valuation
As of 26 Feb 2014
Enterprise
Shares
Value (VNDmn) Outstanding
621,828
1,955,205
716,087
8,094,784

LTM Financial Statistics (VNDmn, except EPS

(mn)
17.8
24.7
16.4

Sales
1,429,615
1,682,364
842,309

Gross
Profit
442,522
743,290
423,824

65.4

3,449,065

1,751,817

General Information
As of 26 Feb 2014
Shares
Outstanding
(million)
17.8
24.7
16.4
65.4

Return on Investment
Beta

ROE

ROA

0.78
0.82
0.50

(%)
17.0%
23.4%
8.3%

(%)
11.3%
8.8%
7.1%

0.66

31.7%

22.2%

EBITDA
164,129
265,339
132,380
669,999

s (VNDmn, except EPS - VND)

EBIT
133,738
243,183
99,773

Net
Income
106,249
149,265
61,031

EPS
5,966
6,437
3,720

573,606

489,289

7,485

LTM Profitability Margins

Gross
Net
Profit
EBITDA
EBIT
Income
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
31.0%
11.5%
9.4%
7.4%
44.2%
15.8%
14.5%
8.9%
50.3%
15.7%
11.8%
7.2%
50.8%

19.4%

LTM Coverage Ratios

EBITDA/
EBITDA
EBIT/

Leverage Ratios
Net Debt/

Int. Exp.

Tot. Cap.

(x)
30.63
12.87
10.96
31.5548131064

- Cpx/Int.
(x)
23.61
10.08
(4.31)

Int. Exp.
(x)
24.96
11.80
6.44

(4) 27.01503

(%)
-26.6%
-7.3%
-27.2%
-27.2%

16.6%

14.2%

Sales
Hist.
1-year
13.4%
20.1%
3.0%
17.7%

Growth Rate
EBITDA
EPS
Hist.
Hist.
1-year
1-year
9.4%
17.7%
19.3%
-31.8%
-1.0%
-25.8%
11.2%

21.1%

DHG
Comparable Companies Analysis
(VND millions, except per share data)

Domesco
Traphaco
Imexpharm

DMC
TRA
IMP

Current
Share
Price ($)
As of
26-Feb-14
44,200
85,000
55,500

Dc Hu Giang

DHG

131,000

Company

Maximum
75th Percentile
Median
25th Percentile
Minimum

Ticker

% of
52-wk.
High

99%
96%
97%
99%

Enterprise Value /
Equity
Value

Price /

Enterprise
Value

2013
Sales

2013
EBITDA

2013
EPS

787,173
2,097,242
910,530

621,828
1,955,205
716,087

0.43x
1.16x
0.85x

3.79x
7.37x
5.41x

7.41x
13.20x
14.92x

8,562,985

8,094,784

2.35x

12.08x

17.50x

2.35x
1.01x
0.85x
0.64x
0.43x

12.08x
6.39x
5.41x
4.60x
3.79x

17.50x
14.06x
13.20x
10.31x
7.41x