Seismic Hazard Assessment in Terms of Macroseismic Intensity

in Italy: A Critical Analysis from the Comparison

of Different Computational Procedures
by Augusto A. Gmez Capera, Vera D Amico, Carlo Meletti,
Andrea Rovida, and Dario Albarello
Abstract Two probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) maps in terms of macroseismic
intensity characterized by an exceedance probability of 10% for exposure time of
50 years are presented and compared. The first map adopts the standard Cornell
McGuire approach and follows the computational scheme developed for the referenc
e
Italian peak ground acceleration (PGA) hazard map (MPS04), while the second one
is
derived through an alternative methodology (referred to here as the site approac
h) that
is based on statistical analysis of the site seismic history (i.e., macroseismic
intensities
documented for past earthquakes). Because the two procedures make a different us
e of
available information, this comparison provides a new insight about the sensitiv
ity of
PSH estimates for the different possible methodological choices. In particular,
it is
shown that, though basic differences exist between the two adopted methodologies
,
relevant results appear consistent over most of Italy. However, at a significant
number
of investigated localities (Italian municipalities), PSH estimates provided by t
he site
approach are larger than those derived from the standard technique. Thus, a deta
iled
analysis has been carried out to evaluate the role played by different choices o
f computational
models and input data. Among these, the use/nonuse of seismogenic zoning
seems to act as the key element in determining the pattern of differences observ
ed
between the two PSH estimates.
Introduction
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) conventionally
provides levels of ground motion at a given probability of
exceedance (e.g., 10%) during a future time span. Present
building codes (e.g., Eurocode 8, Comit Europen de Normalisation
[CEN], 2004; Norme Tecniche per le Costruzioni
[NTC], 2008, for Italy) adopt these estimates in terms of peak
ground acceleration (PGA) or response spectral acceleration
as reference seismic-input parameters for design.
In countries such as Italy where available information on
active faults is incomplete to constrain the seismicity rates,
seismic hazard assessment at the national scale (Mappa di
Pericolosit Sismica [MPS] Working Group, 2004) essentially
depends on earthquake catalog data. PSHA in terms of
acceleration implicitly relies on the assumption that the seismic
catalog used to feed the computational model is constituted
from instrumental data (magnitude, epicenter location,
etc.). Actually, in these cases, PSH estimates strongly depend
on macroseismic information. In fact, the short time interval
covered by instrumental recordings could produce unreliable
estimates of seismicity rates (especially in regions characterized
by a