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This Weeks Highlights:

Asian EDC/VCM: EDC falls $15/mt, VCM flat to $5/mt higher


Asian PVC: Mixed amid flat demand

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INDEX:

Platts International Prices

Polymerupdate Indian Domestic Producer Price

Platts Polymer Shipping Costs (USD/MT)

Polymerupdate CIF India Prices

Polymerupdate Indian Open Market Price Table

Polymerupdate Indian Producer Posting Price Comparison

Heard in PVC Market

Platts International Market Commentary & Analysis

Polymerupdate - PVC Market Supply Scenario

Platts Price Analysis Of PVC Chain Processing Margins

Currency Rates

Crisil Research Macroeconomics & Currency Monthly Analysis

Point of Contact

Polymerupdate - About us & Copyright

Platts - About us & Copyright

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Week 30 July 29, 2015


POLYMERUPDATE

PLATTS INTERNATIONAL PRICES (USD/MT)


Product
India Crude basket:
Naphtha:

(USD/b)

(MOP West India)

July 22
(WK 29)

July 29
(WK 30)

55.70

53.30

- 02.40

459.85

438.35

- 21.50

INDIA DOMESTIC PRODUCER PRICE - RIL (Ex Hazira)

Price Change
on Week

Product

Suspension
344-346

329-331

- 15

CFR South East Asia

359-361

344-346

- 15

CFR Far East Asia

669-671

674-676

+ 05

CFR South East Asia

709-711

709-711

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PVC :

MU

- 07

844-846

- 05

899-901

+ 05

PVC Suspension CFR China

856-858

849-851

PVC Suspension CFR SEA

849-851

PVC Suspension CFR India

894-896

Specifications:
Cargoes of 100-500mt delivered 15-30 days forward from date of publication with up to 30 days credit, basis
CFR Far East Asia: China main ports (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Ningbo, Shantou, Hong Kong); CFR South East Asia: Indonesia (Jakarta,
Surabaya), Singapore, Philippines (Manila Bay), Malaysia (Port Kelang), Thailand (Bangkok, Laem Chabang, Map Ta Phut), Vietnam
(Ho Chi Minh). Platts prices reflect spot market values on the day of publication.
India Crude Import Basket Calculation: ( (Dubai + Oman) / 2 * 65.2% ) + (Dated Brent * 34.8%)
MOP West India : Mean of Platts FOB West India naphtha export price

China Domestic

(YUAN/MT EX-WORK)

Ethylene Based

5940-5960

5840-5860

- 100

Carbide Based

5490-5510

5390-5410

- 100

INR/KG

USD/MT

INR/KG

USD/MT

65.50

918

65.50

918

Price Change on Week


INR/KG

*Domestic Indian producer prices are quoted in INR/kg basic (Nett of all taxes) ; equivalent USD/MT price is
calculated at current US/INR rate. *Lot Size:
1 Truck Load (10 to 16 MT)
- Price assessments are based on information gathered from a cross section of the industry that includes resin
producers, processors, traders and distributors.
- Standard repeatable orders (based on confirmed market deals) form the basis of the prices.

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VCM :

July 29 (WK 30)

PVC Grade

EDC :
CFR Far East Asia

July 22 (WK 29)

PLATTS Polymer shipping costs (USD/MT)


From:

To:
East China
South China
India
Southeast Asia
NW Europe
Turkey
US Gulf
Latin America

Middle East
25 100 MT
20 25
15 25
45 50
30 35
55 65
50 70
130 140
165 175

Middle East
> 100 MT
10 15
10 15
30 40
25 30
50 60
40 60
120 130
160 165

NOTES:
Polymers refer to polyethylene, polypropylene, polystyrene, ABS, and PVC.
1) Middle East loadings refer to products coming from Jebel Ali (Dubai), Khalifa (Abu Dhabi), Jubail (Saudi Arabia), Shuaiba (Kuwait),
Rabigh (Saudi Arabia), Mesaieed (Qatar), Assaluyeh and Bandar Imam Khomeini (Iran) ports. The assessments are normalized between
these ports.
2) East China deliveries refer to products coming into Zhangjiagang, Shanghai, Jiangyin, Nantong, Ningbo, Nanjing, Zhenjiang ports.
3) South China deliveries refer to products coming into Shenzhen, Shantou, Hong Kong, Xiamen, Zhuhai ports.
4) India deliveries refer to products coming into Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai ports.
5) South East Asia deliveries refer to products coming into Indonesia (Jakarta, Surabaya), Singapore, Philippines (Manila Bay), Malaysia
(Port Kelang), Thailand (Bangkok), Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh) ports.
6) Northwest Europe deliveries refer to products coming into Antwerp port. Deliveries into Rotterdam and Amsterdam ports will be
normalized to Antwerp.
7) Turkey deliveries refer to products coming into Istanbul and Mersin ports.
8) US Gulf deliveries refer to products coming into Houston port. No deliveries from the Persian Gulf.
9) Latin America deliveries refer to products coming into mainports in Brazil, Chile, Uruguay.

ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(w),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:info@polymerupdate.com|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025

Week 30 July 29, 2015


POLYMERUPDATE (CIF INDIA PRICES)
CIF INDIA BY ORIGIN (Nhava Sheva Port)
South Korea
WK 29

WK 30

July 22

July 29

Suspension
Emulsion

900
1060

Thailand
Price Change
on Week

900

1060

Taiwan

WK 29

WK 30

July 22

July 29

900

900

--

--

--

Price Change on Week

--

WK 29

WK 30

July 22

July 29

900

900

1070

1070

Price Change on Week

- All prices are in USD/MT CIF India (Nhava Sheva)


- For South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Saudi Arabia :
Cargo size of 50-100mt delivered within 30 days.
- Price assessments are based on information gathered from a cross section of the industry that includes resin producers, processors, traders and distributors.
- Standard repeatable orders (based on confirmed market deals) form the basis of the prices.

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POLYMERUPDATE - Indian Open Market Price Table


Product
Ethylene Based PVC

Mumbai

Delhi

74.5 - 75

76.50 - 77

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Note: All prices are in INR/kg levels.

Kolkata

Bangalore

Indore

76 - 77

73.5 - 74.5

76 - 77

MU

Chennai
77 - 78
(Incl. of VAT)

Ahmedabad

Hyderabad

76 - 77

76 - 77

POLYMERUPDATE - INDIAN PRODUCER POSTING PRICE COMPARISON (GRADE WISE)


PVC SUSPENSION K-67 w.e.f 01 July-2015
Producer

Grade No.

*INR/MT

USD/MT

RIL

67GER01 (Ex-Gandhar)

65500

918

RIL

67.01 (Ex-Hazira)

65500

918

RIL

57GER01 (Ex-Gandhar)

67000

940

RIL

57.11 (Ex-Hazira)

67000

940

*Domestic Indian producer prices are quoted in INR/MT basic (Nett of all taxes) ; equivalent USD/MT price is calculated at current US/INR rate. *Lot Size:
1 Truck Load (10 to 16 MT)
- USD Price calculation: INR/MT Aprox. Clearing and Forwarding Charges / Basic Duty / Exchange Rate = USD/MT (For example: 82330 2500 / 1.075 / 54.24 = 1396)

ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(w),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:info@polymerupdate.com|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025

Week 30 July 29, 2015


Currency rates equivalent to 1 US Dollar :
Countries

Currency Rates

Countries

Currency Rates

Indian Rupees (INR)

63.81

Japan Yen (JPY)

Pakistan Rupees (PKR)

101.82

Indonesia Rupiahs (IDR)

13,447.00

China Yuan Renminb (CNY)

6.21

Malaysia Ringgits (MYR)

3.80

Bangladesh Taka (BDT)

77.70

Singapore Dollars (SGD)

1.36

Sri Lanka Rupees (LKR)

133.50

South Korea Won (KRW)

1160.68

Thailand Baht (THB)

34.83

Saudi Arabia Riyals (SAR)

3.74

Taiwan New Dollars (TWD)

31.42

United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED)

3.67

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Heard in PVC MARKET

Platts:

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Asian PVC: August loading cargoes heard offered at $850-860/mt CFR Southeast Asia, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt

123.59

Polymerupdate:
N.A.

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Asian PVC: Notional August loading deals heard at $850/mt CFR Southeast Asia, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt
Asian PVC: Domestic Chinese Ethylene-based PVC tade levels heard at Yuan 5800mt, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt
Asian PVC: Domestic Chinese Carbide-based PVC tade levels heard at Yuan 5400/mt, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt
Asian PVC: August loading cargoes heard offered at $910/mt CFR India, L/C 90 days, 100-500 mt
Asian PVC: August loading cargoes heard offered at $915/mt CFR India, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt
Asian PVC: August loading deals heard at $900-910/mt CFR India, L/C 90 days, 100-500 mt
Asian PVC: August loading deals heard at $840-850/mt CFR Southeast Asia, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt
Asian PVC: August loading deals heard at $850-860/mt CFR China, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt
Asian PVC: August loading deals heard at $830-850/mt CFR Southeast Asia, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt

ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(w),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:info@polymerupdate.com|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025

Week 30 July 29, 2015


PLATTS INTERNATIONAL MARKET COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS

Asian EDC/VCM: EDC falls $15/mt, VCM flat to $5/mt higher

Asian PVC: Mixed amid flat demand

- EDC falls on lower deepsea offers

- Domestic China marker continues to fall


- Turkish demand for Asian cargoes could rise

- VCM firms on release of new PVC offers


EDC: Asian ethylene dichloride was assessed down $15/mt week on week at $330/mt CFR Far
East Asia and $345/mt CFR Southeast Asia Thursday tracking a fall in deepsea offers. No trades
were confirmed this week, with discussion ongoing for September-arrival deepsea cargoes. US
Gulf deepsea cargoes were heard being offered to Far East Asia at around $270/mt FOB, or
$325/mt on a CFR Far East Asia basis. Freight costs were heard at $55/mt, down $20/mt from
last week, and buying ideas heard around $300/mt CFR Far East Asia. Sources said fading
interest in Asia was pushing USG offers lower. The Asian ethylene market remained bearish this
week, with both the Northeast and Southeast Asia markers at four-month lows. The CFR
Northeast Asia ethylene marker was assessed at $1,165/mt Thursday, down $50/mt week on
week, and the CFR Southeast Asia marker at $1,090/mt, down $15/mt. Given an ethylene
conversion factor of 0.29, the breakeven cost for EDC makers is around $338/mt in Northeast
Asia and $316/mt in Southeast Asia.

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VCM: Asian vinyl chloride monomer prices were flat to $5/mt higher this week as participants
held back to await new monthly VCM spot offers that are expected to be released next week. The
CFR Far East Asia marker rose $5/mt week on week to be assessed at $675/mt, and the CFR
Southeast Asia marker flat over the same period at $710/mt. In China, a trade was heard for a
3,000 mt end July-loading cargo at $675/mt CFR China, Japan origin. VCM spot negotiations
typically occur after deals have been concluded for new monthly PVC offers. Major Taiwanese
PVC producer Formosa Plastics started offering August-loading cargoes Monday, at $920/mt CFR
India, up $10/mt from last month, and $860/mt CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia, both
unchanged from July. In Southeast Asia, activity remained thin with no trades heard.

MU

RATIONALE:
EDC: Assessed down $15/mt week on week at $330/mt CFR Far East Asia Thursday, tracking a
fall in deepsea offers. No trades were confirmed this week. The CFR Southeast Asia marker was
assessed down $15/mt at $345/mt tracking the Far East Asia market.
VCM: Assessed up $5/mt week on week at $675/mt CFR Far East Asia Thursday. A trade was
heard for a 3,000 mt end-July loading cargo at $675/mt CFR China, Japan origin. The Southeast
Asia marker was assessed flat over the same period at $710/mt. No trades were confirmed this
week.

The CFR India PVC marker rose $5/mt week on week to be assessed at $900/mt Wednesday. Northeast Asia origin
cargoes were heard traded this week at $900-$910/mt CFR India. Few Northeast Asia origin cargoes were offered this
week at around $910-$915/mt CFR India, but most PVC exporters -- including Taiwan's Formosa Plastics -- had already
closed their offers last week after concluding August sales earlier than expected, said sources. The CFR China marker
fell $7/mt from last week to $850/mt Wednesday, amid weak buying interest as the Chinese stock market crashed on
Monday. Traded levels were heard in the range of $850-$860/mt CFR China this week. Domestic China PVC prices
mirrored the fall in imported PVC prices this week, with ethylene-based PVC assessed at Yuan 5,850/mt Wednesday,
and carbide-based PVC at Yuan 5,400/mt, both down Yuan 100/mt from last week. "Carbide PVC prices are unlikely to
fall further as feedstock carbide prices recovered around Yuan 100/mt in the last two weeks," said a participant. The
CFR Southeast Asia marker was down $5/mt this week at $845/mt Wednesday, as buying interest remained weak.
Traded levels were heard to be around $830-$850/mt CFR Southeast Asia this week. "PVC import demand from
Thailand remains bearish for August due to the falling exchange rate for Thai baht against the dollar, pushing effective
import PVC prices higher for local end-users," said a producer. "However, local producers are not aggressively pushing
for sales within Southeast Asia due to a larger volume of cargoes moving into Turkey, where the netback is better
compared to the region," he added. US imports to Turkey have been priced out of the market, trade sources said, due
to a recent hike in antidumping duty on US-origin PVC, from $45/mt to 18.81% of the CIF price. As European prices
remained high, Southeast Asian imports had become competitive in Turkey, with no ADD applicable. SEA origin PVC
prices were heard pegged at around $880/mt CFR Turkey this week. In plant news, South Korea's Hanwha Chemical
restarted one PVC production line at its Ulsan complex last week. Hanwha had declared a force majeure on suspension
PVC supply after a July 3 explosion at a wastewater disposal unit. A second line is expected to remain shut until midAugust. In data out this week, South Korea's PVC exports fell 17.1% month on month to 44,463 mt in June, South
Korean Customs data showed. Meanwhile, Chinese PVC exports fell 10.3% month on month to 52,078 mt in June,
according to the latest General Administration of Customs data. Chinese monthly PVC export volume soared to a yearto-date peak of 125,695 mt in March, boosted by 69,800 mt of exports into India, and had since been steadily falling
as demand from the sub-continent retreated.
RATIONALE:
The CFR India marker rose $5/mt week on week to be assessed at $900/mt Wednesday. Northeast Asia origin cargoes
were heard traded this week at $900-$910/mt CFR India. The CFR China marker fell $7/mt from last week to $850/mt
Wednesday, amid weak buying sentiment as the Chinese stock market crashed on Monday. Traded levels were heard
in the range of $850-$860/mt CFR China this week. The CFR Southeast Asia marker fell $5/mt week on week to be
assessed at $845/mt Wednesday, as buying interests remained weak. Traded levels were heard around $830-850/mt
CFR Southeast Asia this week. Domestic China ethylene-based PVC was assessed at Yuan 5,850/mt Wednesday, while
carbide-based PVC was assessed at Yuan 5,400/mt, both down Yuan 100/mt from last week. Delivered cargoes for
ethylene-based PVC were heard traded mostly at Yuan 5,800-Yuan 5,900/mt, while delivered cargoes for carbide-based
PVC were heard traded at around Yuan 5,400/mt this week.

ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(w),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:info@polymerupdate.com|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025

Week 30 July 29, 2015

POLYMERUPDATE - PVC MARKET SUPPLY SCENARIO


VCM plant to be restarted by
Taiwan VCM
Taiwan VCM to resume operations at
vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) plant.
The plant was shut on July 9, 2015 for
annual maintenance turnaround. The
plant is likely to resume production
this week. Located in Lin Yuan,
Taiwan, the VCM plant has a
production
capacity of 420,000
mt/year.

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VCM plant operated by SP


Chemicals at lower rates
SP Chemicals is running its vinyl
chloride monomer (VCM) plant at
curtailed levels. The plant is operating
at 40% of production capacity.
Located in Jiangsu, China, the plant
has a production capacity of 300,000
mt/year.

PVC line restarted by Hanwha


Chemical
Hanwha Chemical has restarted
operations at one of the two PVC
lines. The company had enforced FM
on PVC supplies on July 7, 2015 after
an explosion at the plant. The
company has restarted operations at one PVC line recently while the other line will remain shut till mid-August 2015. Located Ulsan in South Korea, the PVC plant comprises of two lines with a combined production
capacity of 210,000 mt/year.
PVC plant likely to be restarted by Yili Nangang
Yili Nangang Chemical is in plans to restart a polyvinyl chloride (PVC) plant following maintenance turnaround. The plant is likely to restart in end-July 2015. It was shut on June 25, 2015. Located in Xinjiang, China,
the plant has a production capacity of 120,000 mt/year.

ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(w),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:info@polymerupdate.com|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025

Week 30 July 29, 2015


PLATTS Price Analysis of PVC Chain Processing Margins

Naphtha to Ethylene

Naphtha to PVC

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Typical North East Asian $/mt margin for producing ethylene


from naphtha using a conversion cost of $350/mt

Ethylene to PVC

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Premium or discount of CFR FE Asia PVC prices compared to ethylene

Premium or discount of CFR FE Asia PVC prices over naphtha

PVC : VCM Ratio

CFR FE Asia PVC prices as a ratio to VCM

ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(w),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:info@polymerupdate.com|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025

Week 30 July 29, 2015


CRISIL Research Macroeconomics & Currency Monthly Analysis

Overview: On exports, worry beads forming


After falling by 1.5% in 2014-15, merchandise exports from India plunged 16.8% in the first 3 months ofthis fiscal. What went wrong?
The export destinations are not doing well, prices of many export items have fallen and the rupee, too,has appreciated in real terms
against the basket of 36 countries. Weakgrowth in the US economy in the first quarterwould have contributed to the sharp slide in
India'sexports as well.But our preliminary analysis shows the decline in exports is higher than warranted by these factors. That isto
say, the decline isnt merely cyclical; there could be structural elements at play as well. The cyclicalcomponent of the exports will move
up when cyclical factors (world GDP growth, prices) turn favourable,but structural factors, if not addressed, will continue to act as a
drag on India's export performance.The slowdown in trade is not unique to India. An IMF study (2014) notes that a part of the global
tradeslowdown since the crisis has been driven by structural, not cyclical factors. Theslowdown in trade could reflect deeper, structural
factors, such as a rise in protectionism or a change inglobal production schemes throughout the world.In the case of India, there are
additional worries. Falling competitiveness is another structural factorrestricting export growth. For key export items such as gems &
jewellery and textiles, RevealedComparative Advantage has come down over the years. Recently,the Indian commerce secretary also
expressed concerns on falling competitiveness of Indian exports due toinfrastructure and easing of doing business issues.Another
concern is the threat emanating from treaties such as Trans Pacific Partnership(TPP), which is being forged between 12 countries,
including the US. By not being a part of TPP, India riskslosing out a significant chunk of its export market; TPP countries account for
25% of Indias exports.Indeed, India needs to address export-related issues on a war footing.

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IIP indicates industry growth gaining traction


Industrial production growth inched down to 2.7% in May from 3.4% in April. However, despite the volatility, IIP numbers have
averaged at a higher level in 2015 - at 3.5% since January 2015 as compared to 1.4% in the 5 months prior to that. Therefore, IIP
data suggests an improvement in industrial activity this year in comparison to 2014, so far. In May, IIP growth slowed as the
manufacturing sector lost momentum on the back of weak performance of consumer-oriented sectors. Unseasonal rains earlier in the
year, resulting in lower rural demand, are weighing on consumer goods. This is reflected in lower two-wheeler and tractor sales in
April and May. Therefore, favourable distribution of rainfall so far and deficiency at -4% of long term average - much lower than last
year - is a welcome respite.

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Week 30 July 29, 2015


Inflation crawls up in June
Inflation inched up to 5.4% from 5% in May due to a 70 bps increase in food inflation. Higher protein inflation -9.7% in June compared with
8.2% in May - was behind the food inflation rise. Inflation in pulses crossed 22% in June as production suffered largely a result of a weak
monsoon last year and damage to crops from unseasonal rains this year. So far, the monsoon scenario remains favourable, with rainfall at
4% below the long term average as on July 8, 2015. But, healthy and well-distributed rainfall in July and August will be crucial. We go by
Indian Meteorological Departments forecast of 12% deficient rainfall, but assume distribution remains normal, and the government
undertakes proactive steps to contain food inflation. We, therefore, expect CPI inflation at 5.8% in 2015-16, down from 6% in 2014-15. Core
inflation rose 20 bps to 5.3% in June, a slower climb compared to 40 bps in May. The pick-up came from a sharp jump in personal care and
effects (up 120 bps) and in household services, health, transport and communication and, recreation and amusement (all up 30 bps).

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Rupee stays put in June


The rupee averaged 63.9/$, hardly changed from 63.8/$ in May. However, it fell to 71.6 against the euro from71.2 in May. In the first half
of June, the rupee hovered between 64.2/$ and 63.8/$, and rose to 63.5/$ in the second half as weak employment data dragged the US
dollar down. However, as uncertainty on Greece loomed large in the last week of June, the rupee lost some ground, closing at 63.8/$.
There was also no support from FIIs, with net outflows continuing for the second consecutive month.

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About CRISIL Research

CRISIL Research is India's largest independent and integrated research house. We provide insights, opinions, and analysis on the Indian economy, industries, capital markets and companies. We are India's most credible
provider of economy and industry research. Our industry research covers 70 sectors and is known for its rich insights and perspectives. Our analysis is supported by inputs from our network of more than 4,500 primary
sources, including industry experts, industry associations, and trade channels. We play a key role in India's fixed income markets. We are India's largest provider of valuations of fixed income securities, serving the mutual
fund, insurance, and banking industries. We are the sole provider of debt and hybrid indices to India's mutual fund and life insurance industries. We pioneered independent equity research in India, and are today India's largest
independent equity research house. Our defining trait is the ability to convert information and data into expert judgements and forecasts with complete objectivity. We leverage our deep understanding of the macroeconomy
and our extensive sector coverage to provide unique insights on micro-macro and cross-sectoral linkages. We deliver our research through an innovative web-based research platform. Our talent pool comprises economists,
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Week 30 July 29, 2015

POLYMERUPDATE

PLATTS

Editorial Contact:

Global Editorial Director, Petrochemicals: Simon Thorne

Director, Editorial: Jwalant Oza

Managing Editor: Prema Viswanathan

Senior Editors: Harsh Nadkarni, Feroz Khan

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Maithreyi Ramdas, Pamela Sumayao, Jennifer Lee

Sales Contact:
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Tokyo Editors: Fumiko Dobashi, Anton Ferkov

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Credible, neutral and regular reporting has attracted over a thousand subscribers who include most of the regions leading resin producers, processors, distributors, traders, consultant firms, investment bankers, credit rating
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About The McGraw-Hill Companies: McGraw-Hill announced on September 12, 2011, its intention to separate into two companies: McGraw-Hill Financial, a leading provider of content and analytics to global financial
markets, and McGraw-Hill Education, a leading education company focused on digital learning and education services worldwide. McGraw-Hill Financials leading brands include Standard & Poors Ratings Services, S&P Capital
IQ, S&P Dow Jones Indices, Platts energy information services and J.D. Power and Associates. With sales of $6.2 billion in 2011, the Corporation has approximately 23,000 employees across more than 280 offices in 40
countries. Additional information is available at http://www.mcgraw-hill.com/ .

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