A main objective of this chapter is to explain the modelling approach used in this thesis.

This chapter begins

with a description of the research paradigm. Following this, data collection and data analysis are explained. The
contributions of this study and its research focus are discussed in the next section. Next, a methodological approach to
obtain an appropriate model combining climate production factors is described step by step. At the end, a detailed
description of the research method, the system dynamics approach, is outlined.
3.1 The research paradigm and method
The research paradigm applied in this study is based on the system dynamics philosophy. That is, to gain
in-depth understanding of the real world, the real world must be studied as a feedback structure: the cause and effect in
the real world. This aim to obtain an appropriate understanding of the real world behavior (Sterman, 2001) and this is
important as the real world behavior arises from the interactions among their components (Sterman, 2001).
The feedback structure is an important foundation of system dynamics (Forrester, 1961; Richardson, 2011)
as it allows users to analyze and modify the internal structure of the system dynamics model as well as to explore the
model behavior. In the context of this study, the system dynamics can determine interactions among components of
the rice supply chain, such as production factors and climate. As interactions among components are visible, the
system dynamics can explain how climate change affects the rice supply chain and how the negative impacts of
climate change can be minimized.
Likewise, the system dynamics model is constructed based on scientific process in order to obtain
statistically significant findings and to generalize the findings without bias. This means that the feedback structure is
based on a scientific method so that it can be categorized as the positivistic approach.
In order to construct the feedback structure, a case study in West Nusa Tenggara will be used. The aim of the
case study is to gain in-depth understanding of the real world behavior through documentations such as historical data,
observations and artifacts (Merriam, 1998). Again, according to Sterman (2001) and Saeed (1992), empirical evidence
such as historical data and observations can provide guidelines to reproduce the feedback structure as a reliable
representation of the real world.
3.2 Data gathering
Table 3.1 shows climatic and non-climatic data collected from relevant institutions. Climatic and nonclimatic data are needed to obtain statistical equations determining the impact of climate change on the rice supply
chain. For instance, temperature, rainfall and factor productions will be aggregated to assess the impact of climate
change on rice yield. Another example is a total drying area will be analysed to estimate the total dried paddy.

3.3 Homogeneity Issues

This section explains some homogeneities and heterogeneities in this study. Some homogeneities explained
in this section are farming practices and climate. While, a possible heterogeneity in this study is a farming type. This
section also describes that the system dynamics can be used to combine possible homogeneities and heterogeneities to
resemble the rice supply chain behaviour under climate change.
There are several homogeneities relate to the agricultural system. Firstly, farmers tend to apply similar
farming practices. The local government of West Nusa Tenggara provides the training relates to agricultural
management, such as farming and rice milling practices. As West Nusa Tenggara has a low human development index
(BPS, 2014), farmers tend to have limited information and limited funding to acquire better farming practices, leading
to applying farming practices offered by the government. In other words, farmers tend to have the similar agricultural
practices. For instance, all farmers would apply the similar farming practice in wetland farming or in dryland farming.
In this study, similar farming practices also mean similar paddy varieties or similar tractor characteristics.
Secondly, all parts of West Nusa Tenggara have a similar climate characteristics. For example, all parts of
West Nusa Tenggara have about 3-4 wet months and 6-9 dry months. Another instance, all parts of this region has
relatively similar temperature.
In the case of capturing any possible heterogeneity, Lobell & Burke (2010a) suggest that statistical models
can be used to assess whether different farming types, namely, wetland and dryland farming have unique responses to
climate. For instance, if any farming type has different responses to climate, analysis of the rice yields will be
separated: analysis of the rice yields in wetland and analysis of rice yields in dryland farming.
As this study may combine homogeneities and heterogeneities, this study leads to an additional contribution.
That is, the combination of homogeneities and heterogeneities of the agricultural system in the West Nusa Tenggara.
In the term of system dynamics approach, the system dynamics approach can be constructed to capture
heterogeneities. For instance, in the system dynamics model, analysis of rice yields of wetland and dryland farming
can be analyzed separately.
3.5 The research focus
INTRODUCTORY PARAGRAPHS
In the case of the agrifood supply chain such as the rice supply chain uncertainty, there are two kinds of
supply chain uncertainty: infrequent supply chain uncertainties and frequent supply chain uncertainties (van der Vorst
& Beulens, 2002; Kleindorfer & Saad, 2005; Oke & Gopalakrishnan, 2009; Verdouw, 2010). IPCC (2012) suggests

that climate extremes such as floods and heat waves may negatively affect crop yield such as rice yield. However,
climate extremes usually occurred every 20 years and they are projected to occur between 10 and 15 years in the
future (IPCC, 2012). So, climate extremes can be categorized as infrequent supply chain uncertainties.
Furthermore, frequent or high-likelihood supply chain uncertainties are, for example, crop yield variability
and harvesting time (van der Vorst & Beulens, 2002). Climate change and climate variability can be main causes of
these frequent uncertainties. Climate variability happens every time and climate change has been detected since the
last decade. As these uncertainties frequently occur, these uncertainties are a main concern of this study.
Despite technology advancement and availability of production factors, climate can negatively affect rice
yields as climate cannot be controlled. This means that climate change and climate variability can negatively affect
area where climate and production factors interact each other (Hasan, 2010). As climate change may affect rice yields
in the farming area, may increase paddy-drying time in the drying area and may affect the rice milling in the milling
area, the focus of the research is to examine the impact of climate change in the farming, drying and milling areas.
In addition to the research focus, it is important to examine the negative impacts of climate change on the
rice supply chain as a whole instead of looking the negative impacts at an individual for two reasons. Firstly, the rice
supply chain involves a lot of parties, namely, farmers, paddy brokers, wholesalers, BULOG and rice millers. If this
study focus on a farmer, for instance, the impacts of climate change on other parties may not be understood well.
Secondly, rice farming has a high contribution to economic growth. This means that rice is important for
employment and economic activity (BPS, 2013). As climate change could affect the rice supply chain, climate change
could affect society as a whole. In other words, the impact of climate change on the rice supply chain may affect
fundamental issues such as food security and livelihood. It is therefore that climate change can affect people
regardless of their social status, race and religion.
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