Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 3,258 Albertans by Smart IVR on October 1st, 2015.

A
mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of Error: +/- 1.71%, 19 times out of 20.
Regional margins of error: Edmonton: +/- 3.2%; Calgary +/-2.75%; Rest of Alberta :
+/-3.02% 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age and gender based on the 2011
Canadian Census.

A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

BATTLEGROUND EDMONTON
October 5, 2015 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the Conservative party leading in
Alberta - but its a tight three way race in Edmonton where the Liberals are in second. The
Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.71%, 19 times out of 20.
The Liberal Party of Canada has not held a seat in Alberta since the 2006 election when the Conservatives
came to office, said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. That shutout in Alberta appears to be
ending with Liberals poised to elect a number of MPs on October 19th in both Edmonton and Calgary. In
Edmonton, the Liberal party is now in second with the NDP in third - this despite strong support the
provincial NDP in Albertas capital.
With Liberal fortunes up across Canada, and Conservatives losing their dominant stranglehold on Alberta,
this could signal a larger National shift in the polls as seen in recent days.
That comes at the same time as a rise in support for the Wildrose Party provincially where they lead the
governing NDP by 6%, 39% to 33%. This change in sentiment may be more a reflection of the current
federal election and the state of the economy and the energy sector where Alberta heavily relies for jobs
and growth.
Provincial loyalties appear to be heavily divided among the federal parties. Progressive Conservative
voters are overwhelmingly loyal to their federal cousins, with 94% saying they will vote Conservative
federally. Wildrose voters are less likely to vote Conservative federally, but still an overwhelming 82% of
them will vote for Stephen Harper, with the rest evenly spread across the other federal parties.
Alberta Liberals and Alberta Party voters both will vote for the federal Liberals by a slim majority, 56% and
50% respectively, with Alberta party voters being highly undecided at this point with 36% indicating so.
Provincial NDP supporters are anything but loyal to their federal cousins, just a little over a quarter are
voting for Mulcair, a third will vote for Trudeau and almost 2 in 10 will vote Conservative. It's no surprise how
well the Liberals are doing especially in Edmonton and in Calgary based on this distribution of support, he
finished.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion,
having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate
pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

All Voters
Conservative

5%

19%

13%

63%

13%

4%

16%

11%

56%

If the Federal Election

were today,
which
party would you support?
LEANING
AND
DECIDED

Decided & Leaning

NDP

Liberal

Green

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

18-34
58%
11%
16%
7%
9%
474

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

Edmonton
34%
21%
26%
8%
11%
938

Undecided

35-49
52%
10%
17%
3%
17%
508

50-64
56%
11%
15%
4%
14%
1062
Calgary
51%
9%
22%
3%
15%
1270

65+ Male Female

60% 59% 53%
10% 11%
10%
15% 16%
16%
2%
5%
4%
13%
9%
17%
1214 1306 1952
Rest of Alberta
65%
8%
10%
4%
13%
1050

A4

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for?

19%

11%
52%

14%
3%

Conservative

NDP

Liberal

Green

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a

chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTER
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW

CPC
86%
10%
5%

NDP
64%
29%
7%

LPC
54%
32%
14%

GPC
39%
52%
9%

A5

All Voters
NDP

Wildrose

ALBERTA NDP
WILDROSE
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
ALBERTA LIBERAL
ALBERTA PARTY
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
ALBERTA NDP
WILDROSE
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
ALBERTA LIBERAL
ALBERTA PARTY
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

4%

3%

21%

39%

33%

9%

4%

3%

19%

35%

30%

And, if a provincial election

were held
today,
which party would you support?
LEANING
AND
DECIDED

Decided & Leaning

PCs

Liberal

18-34
29%
43%
15%
3%
6%
4%
474

Alberta

35-49
33%
29%
20%
2%
3%
12%
508

Edmonton
52%
18%
12%
5%
6%
8%
938

Undecided

50-64
26%
34%
21%
3%
2%
13%
1062
Calgary
31%
34%
16%
4%
5%
9%
1270

65+ Male Female

30% 29%
31%
33% 41%
30%
22% 18%
19%
2%
2%
4%
2%
4%
3%
10%
6%
13%
1214 1306 1952
Rest of Alberta
22%
42%
22%
1%
2%
10%
1050

A6

And, if a provincial election

were held
today,
which party would you support?
LEANING
AND
DECIDED

15%

17%

7%

28%

33%

ABOVE: Who Alberta NDP Supporters are Voting for Federally

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
UNDECIDED

ALBERTA NDP
WILDROSE
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
ALBERTA LIBERAL
ALBERTA PARTY
UNDECIDED

NDP
17%
28%
33%
7%
15%

Columns (not rows) add up to 100%

WR
82%
5%
3%
4%
6%
CPC
9%
52%
32%
1%
0%
6%

PC ALIB AB UD
93% 24% 6% 34%
1%
1%
0% 4%
2% 59% 50% 11%
0%
2%
8% 6%
3%
14% 36% 46%
NDP
79%
17%
1%
0%
0%
3%

LPC
62%
7%
3%
10%
11%
7%

GPC UD
49% 34%
29% 15%
2%
5%
1%
3%
6%
7%
13% 33%

A7

Should the provincial governmentLEANING

spend more
onDECIDED
capital projects to stimulate the economy?
AND

26%

40%

34%
Yes

No

Not Sure

YES
NO
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

18-34
34%
46%
20%
474

YES
NO
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

Edmonton
45%
31%
24%
938

35-49
43%
27%
30%
508

50-64
47%
28%
25%
1062
Calgary
43%
33%
24%
1270

65+ Male Female

36% 43% 37%
30% 42% 26%
34% 15%
37%
1214 1306 1952
Rest of Alberta
37%
35%
28%
1050

A8

Should the government

cut
programs
and reduce the size
LEANING
AND
DECIDED
of its workforce to reduce the size of the deficit?

15%

47%

38%

Yes

No

Not Sure

YES
NO
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

18-34
42%
44%
14%
474

YES
NO
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

Edmonton
41%
44%
15%
938

35-49
48%
41%
11%
508

50-64
52%
34%
14%
1062
Calgary
47%
41%
13%
1270

65+ Male Female

49% 58% 37%
27% 31%
45%
24% 11%
19%
1214 1306 1952
Rest of Alberta
49%
35%
16%
1050

A9

LEANING
AND taxes
DECIDED
Should the provincial government
increase
to reduce the size of the deficit?

8%
22%

70%
Yes

No

Not Sure

YES
NO
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

18-34
27%
71%
2%
474

YES
NO
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

Edmonton
26%
65%
9%
938

35-49
22%
67%
11%
508

50-64
19%
72%
9%
1062
Calgary
25%
68%
7%
1270

65+
14%
71%
15%
1214

Male Female
23% 20%
72% 69%
5%
11%
1306 1952

Rest of Alberta
19%
72%
9%
1050

A10

Should the government introduce a carbon levy to help Alberta address climate change?

16%

35%

49%

Yes

No

Not Sure

YES
NO
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

18-34
40%
51%
9%
474

YES
NO
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

Edmonton
42%
44%
14%
938

35-49
29%
53%
18%
508

50-64
39%
42%
18%
1062
Calgary
40%
46%
14%
1270

65+ Male Female

30% 33% 37%
47% 55% 42%
23% 11%
21%
1214 1306 1952
Rest of Alberta
31%
51%
18%
1050

A11

SCRIPT
How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal Election?
Absolutely certain to vote
Likely to vote
Might vote
Unlikely to vote
Not eligible to vote
And if the Federal Election were today, which party would you support?
The Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
The NDP led by Tom Mulcair
The Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
The Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
And which party are you leaning towards voting for?
The Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
The NDP led by Tom Mulcair
The Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
The Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change
your mind before the next election?
Strong supporter
Might change your mind
Dont know
And, if a provincial election were held today, who would you vote for among the following options?
The NDP led by Rachel Notley
The Wildrose Party led by Brian Jean
The Progressive Conservatives led by Ric McIver
The Alberta Liberal Party led by David Swann
The Alberta Party led by Greg Clark
Undecided

A12

SCRIPT
Should the provincial government spend more on capital projects to stimulate the economy?
Yes
No
Not Sure
Should the provincial government increase taxes to reduce the size of the deficit?
Yes
No
Not Sure
Should the government cut programs and reduce the size
of its workforce to reduce the size of the deficit?
Yes
No
Not Sure
Should the government introduce a carbon levy to help Alberta address climate change?
Yes
No
Not Sure

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all
three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator
on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority
Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario.
Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral
election.