CN 3421 Process Modeling and Numerical Simulation

Stats Assignment 2012/2013

1.

A normal population has a known mean 60 and known variance 2 = 3. A random sample of n = 15 is
selected from this population, and the sample mean is x = 58 . How unusual is this result?

The sample mean should follow a normal distribution with a mean of 60 and standard
deviation of /n = 3/15=0.4472.
Probability of getting a mean of smaller or equal to 58 is < ((58-60)/0.4472) = -4.472 0.
Therefore it is a low chance. Getting a mean of 58 with n =15 is a very unusual result.

2.

Your company FEEL FRESH packages citrus fruit juice drinks. Following are the Vitamin C content
(I.U. per litre) of samples taken from 10 different batches of packaged juice. All readings were taken at
20C:
11.48

a)

11.45

11.48

11.47

11.48

11.50

11.42

11.49

11.45

11.44

The requirement for this drink is 11.48 I.U. per litre. Is there a need to spike in more Vitamin C?

1. test on the parameter m

2. hypothesis statement:
H0: = 11.48
H1: < 11.48
3. = 0.05
4. test statistic: T0

X !11.48
s

5. rejection criteria (one-sided alternative):

t0 < !t! ,n!1 = !1.833 where = 0.05 and n-1 = 9.

6. calculation of t0

x = 11.466, s = 0.025033
11.466 !11.48
t0 =
= !1.769 > !1.833
0.025033 / 10
7. Do not reject H0. There is no need to spike in more Vit C.
To get the P-value for t-distribution, looking at t-distribution table along v = 9. The t-test statistic value = -1.769 has
between 0.05 and 0.10. P-value (from EXCEL) is approximately 0.055> = 0.05. Hence, we cannot reject H0.
b) What would be a reasonable estimate of the lowest possible , based on your answer from a) and the
information given?

Using the t-statistics value of -1.769, the corresponding 0.055. It is lowest that can go in order to
reject H0 but at a higher than = 0.05.
c)

Explain how the question in part (a) could be answered by constructing a confidence interval.

For a lower bound and = 0.05 scenario,

If

x > ! t! ,n!1

So,

, it would be do not reject the H0 hypothesis,

< x + t! ,n!1

< 11.466 + 1.833

>;?$

./($!0()(*&+$
'(,-#%$

:;<4<=$

!"#$%#&$
'()(*&+$'(,-#%$

0.025033
10

1234566789%$

< 11.48051
Since = 11.48 is less than 11.48051, we will not reject the H0.
Comment: Using a two sided confidence interval is acceptable in general but not as good option as single bounds
because t (in lower bound) will always be > t/2 or t (in upper bound) < t/2. In other words, single bounds will have
less extreme t values, thus for single bounds, we are more likely to reject the H0 for the same .
3) Photolithography techniques are widely used in the semi-conductor industry due to the ability to print nanosized features onto a Si wafer. To achieve, features of such high resolution, the alignment between the
mask and the wafer has to be of a certain precision. Problems can include plane pitch angle and plane offcentered misalignments. Suppose that pitch angle and off-centered misalignments occur 2.5% and 1.5% of
the time respectively. The probability of a pitch angle and off-centered misalignment error actually
resulting in a rejection of a wafer batch is 1% and 3% respectively.
a) What is the probability of rejection of a wafer batch?
b) If the actual rejection rate in wafer fabrication process is 1%, discuss briefly about your interpretation of
your answer to a) in light of the actual failure rate.
R = rejection of wafer batch; A = pitch angle problem; C = off centered problem
a)

P(R) = P(R|A)*P(A) + P(R|C)*P(C)

= (0.01)(0.025) + (0.03)(0.015) = 0.0007 = 0.07%
b) Since the probability of rejection just solely based on pitch angle and off centered misalignment is
only 0.07% while the actual rejection is 1%, it suggests that there is some other unstated problems
besides pitch angle and off-centered alignment. Finding out those other problems is the first step in
finally reducing the rejection rate.