HE
WIN?
Executive Summary
Ted Cruz has committed his entire life to the Foundational principles that made
America great. From reciting the Constitution to Chambers of Commerce as a
teenager; to his time in the Bush Administration; to his powerful victories before
the Supreme Court; and finally, as one of the leading conservatives in the Senate,
Ted has been a Courageous Conservative.
If Republicans nominate a conservative in 2016, there is a good chance we can
win the White House
The Establishment however never seems to learn that moderates dont win
The 2016 Primary will be completely different from past primaries due to changes
to the primary calendar and the number of well-funded candidates
Ted Cruzs leadership role on the most important issues that matter to primary
voters: Marriage, Religious Freedom, Immigration, Common Core, ObamaCare,
Debt and the Second Amendment uniquely position him to build the coalition of
votes necessary to win a crowded primary
Cruz has the most complete portfolio of campaign assets
In 2012 African-Americans made up 15% of Ohio Voters and they went 96% for
Obama
Hillary will have to drive African-American turnout 25% over 2004 levels to win
Ohio
Likewise, since 2000, the Hispanic share of potential voters also shrank from 3.4%
to 2.5% by 2012
If African-American turnout just reverts to 2004 levels (54.8%) and nothing else
changes the Republican presidential nominee will win the state in 2016
Romney only captured 21% of the Hispanic vote compared with Bush, who got
40% in 2004
Romneys disgraceful performance was hurt further by the fact that New Mexico
former Governor, Gary Johnson, ran as a Libertarian garnering 3.5%
Rafael Ted Cruz can achieve George Bush totals giving him 62,000 additional
Hispanics, while the Democrats lose 62,000, would more than offset Romneys
81,000 loss margin
Romney only received 23% of Hispanic vote versus 40% for Bush in 2004
Cruz achieving Bush numbers with Hispanics and turning out Republicans makes
Colorado, who just elected a conservative Senator, a very achievable target
Cruz would still need to turn out additional married, white people in order to carry
state
Looking to 2016
242
296
GW Bush (2000)"
GW Bush (2004)"
Reagan (1980)"
Reagan (1984)"
McCain (2008)"
Romney (2012)"
GHW Bush (1988)"
0"
12"
23"
35"
46"
= winning campaign
Rove won for Bush by driving Evangelical turnout Now he loses by doing the opposite
Exception was when Bush 41 ran as a hard conservative in 1988 with Atwater and Reagans help
58"
- Foreign Money
Immigration
Future
Not Past
National
Security
Foreign
Money
NO
NO
CRUZ
BUSH
NO
NO
NO
HUCKABEE
NO
NO
PAUL
NO
RUBIO
WALKER
NO
NO
NO
sta ed tiome
22.1
million
21%
74.5
million
52.4
million
Evan euca I
Voters
25.7 million
21%
79.4 million
53.7
million
30.2 mill
ion
23%
83.2
million
53
million
29.7
million
23%
86.7 million
57
million
POPULATI
ON
. .
..
0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
..
.
.CONSERVATIVES.. .
.
..: ../.............
..... .
.
.
.
: ...........
.:
.
:
.
.
..
.
l
.: ..
RELIGIOUS.
........
'04
'08
'12
.
'96
WHERE WE ARE
TODAY
METHODOLOGY
! 739 autodial phone interviews
conducted nationwide among likely
Republican primary voters
! Conducted May 15-16, 2015
! Margin of error is +/- 3.6%
! Comparative data results pulled
from February 2015 polling
OF NOTE
!
CANDIDATE AWARENESS
Please rate each candidate on a 7-point scale. Press 1 if you would almost certainly vote for that candidate. Press 2 if you would
strongly consider supporting that candidate. Press 7 if you would almost certainlynever vote for that candidate. Press 6 if it is unlikely you would
ever support that candidate. Press 4 if you are completely neutral. However, you can use any number from
1-7 to rate these candidates.If you dont know the candidate well enough to rate them, Press 9. Those who selected 1-7 for a candidate were
considered Aware, while those who selected 9 were considered Not Aware.
1-7 Aware
Total
February
Awareness
9 Not Aware
94
JEB BUSH
MIKE
HUCKABEE
RAND PAUL
94
91
92
90
10
89
CHRIS CHRISTIE
86
14
89
MARCO RUBIO
86
14
85
TED CRUZ
84
16
80
DONALD TRUMP
84
17
RICK
PERRY
RICK SANTORUM
SCOTT WALKER
BEN CARSON
19
86
81
19
83
75
26
75
75
25
70
70
LINDSEY
GRAHAM
BOBBY JINDAL
CARLY
FIORINA
JOHN KASICH
82
30
69
32
66
57
35
43
69
50
59
CANDIDATE CONSIDERATION
Please rate each candidate on a 7-point scale. Press 1 if you would almost certainlyvote for that candidate. Press 2 if you
would strongly consider supporting that candidate. Press 7 if you would almost certainlynever vote for that candidate. Press 6 if it is
unlikely you would ever support that candidate. Press 4 if you are completely neutral. However, you can use any number from 1-7 to
rate these candidates.If you dont know the candidate well enough to rate them, Press 9.
1 Certainly Consider
2-3 Consider
22
MARCO RUBIO
18
33
MIKE HUCKABEE
18
32
15
6
6
26
RICK SANTORUM
26
CHRIS CHRISTIE
CARLY FIORINA
13
17
16
52
11
11
3.90
3.88
17
4.08
4.42
4.09
35
3.31
3.80
13
11
16
45
3.51
22
59
29
12
13
18
3.01
3.48
12
39
2.99
12
13
15
Mean
Scores
3.57
46
15
15
10
38
20
DONALD TRUMP
14
26
31
15
37
23
13
31
31
7
5
24
34
RICK
PERRY
BOBBY JINDAL
JOHN KASICH
21
29
11
RAND PAUL
37
33
19
BEN CARSON
24
29
JEB BUSH
TED CRUZ
39
24
SCOTT WALKER
LINDSEY GRAHAM
4+9 Neutral
4.00
4.91
22
4.63
Comparing the total awareness of each candidate to their 1-3 consideration score we
see candidates who have higher awareness and popularity overall (Bush, Rubio,
Huckabee, Paul, and Cruz) and we see that a group clustered toward the bottom left
quadrant that are less unknown.
Announced Candidates
Rubio
71%
Walker
71%
Carson
64%
Cruz
57%
Huckabee
55%
Bush
54%
Paul
50%
Jindal
46%
Perry
45%
Santorum
40%
30
Kasich
39%
20
Fiorina
38%
Christie
34%
Trump
24%
Graham
23%
100
Paul
Bush
Huckabee
Christie
Trump
Perry
Santorum
90
80
Graham
Rubio
Cruz
Walker
Jindal
70
Carson
Fiorina
60
Total Awareness %
CONSIDERATION
CONVERSION RATE
Kasich
50
40
10
LESS KNOWN/UNDERPERFORMING
POPULAR LOWER-RECOGNITION
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
COMPARED CONSIDERATIONS
Below is the total consideration (1-3) for each candidate from our February poll and our current May poll.
61
58
54
53
54
51
51 50
48
47 47
43 44
43
43
37
34 33
35
32
33
29
25
23 22
20
FEBRUARY
MAY
16
Rubio
Walker
13
0
Bush
Huckabee
Cruz
Carson
Paul
Perry
Kasich
Trump* Graham*
CHANGE IN CONSIDERATION
Below is the change in consideration(1-3) for each candidate from our February poll to our May poll.
FIORINA
+12
RUBIO
+7
CRUZ
+5
PAUL
CARSON
-4
-5
-6
+1
0
-1
HUCKABEE
-1
JINDAL
-1
KASICH
-3
BUSH
-3
SANTORUM
CHRISTIE
WALKER
PERRY
*Lindsey Graham and Donald Trump were not included in February Poll
CANDIDATE PREFERENCES
Generally speaking
what type of
candidate do you
prefer nominating?
29
FEBRUARY
Social Conservative
MAY
28
24
Mainstream
25
20
Tea Party
16
14
Could Support Any
Stand by
principles
44
Get Things
Done
56
15
5
Libertarian
6
8
Unsure
ISSUE PREFERENCES
How would you describe your views in the
area of social/fiscal issues?
51
41
32
34
17
FISCAL
SOCIAL
12
Very
Cons
5
Somewhat
Cons
Moderate
2
Somewhat
Lib
1
Very
Lib
17
#
16%
Social
Conservatives
16%
Tea Party
17%
Undecided
Conservatives
8%
Dissatisfied
14%
Uncommitted
Moderates
19%
Pragmatic
Partisans
10%
Mainstream
Moderates
POTENTIAL GROWTH
We looked at each candidates total consideration score (1-3) and
subtracted their derived ballot score to show the potential growth of each
candidate. Below are the current and potential ballot results.
Current Derived Ballot
MARCO RUBIO
SCOTT WALKER
TED CRUZ
MIKE HUCKABEE
JEB BUSH
Potential Growth
52
44
43
41
40
39
38
11
BEN CARSON
RAND PAUL
35
RICK PERRY
BOBBY JINDAL
32
30
26
RICK SANTORUM
CHRIS CHRISTIE
CARLY FIORINA
25
20
18
JOHN KASICH
DONALD TRUMP
LINDSEY GRAHAM
*Candidates are rank ordered by potential growth.
16
Social Conservatives
Mainstream
HUCKABEE
12
BUSH
BUSH
11
RUBIO
WALKE
R
10
HUCKABEE
CARSON
RUBIO
CRUZ
UNDECIDED
32
Tea Party
19
11
14
CRUZ
CARSON
WALKE
R
PAUL
CARSON
CARSON
HUCKABEE
CHRISTIE
RUBIO
24
UNDECIDED
27
12
BUSH
10
WALKE
R
CARSON
HUCKABEE
CHRISTIE
PAUL
RUBIO
BUSH
23
PAUL
11
WALKE
R
UNDECIDED
17
RUBIO
11
WALKE
R
Libertarian
UNDECIDED
34
UNDECIDED
32
THIS PRIMARY IS
REALLY DIFFERENT.
Schedule is significantly different than past years favors more conservative
candidate
The first 14 states (through Super Tuesday) have 574 delegates (83%) that will
come from conservative states
At least six well-funded candidates making it very difficult for Establishment to
destroy the conservative challenger
SOUTH
DELEGATES THROUGH SUPER TUESDAY
Sou
th
Nor
th
Tot
al
47
7
69/o
216
31
/o
693
RIGHT
DELEGATES THROUGH SUPER TUESDAY
Conservativ
e
Moderat
e
Tota
l
507
731
0
186
271
0
693
CRUZ
Historically, the Establishment Candidate uses his financial resources to destroy the leading
challenger who has already been weakened by the other challenger candidates.
TED IS
WELL-POSITIONED
TO WIN THE
PRIMARY.
HUCKABEE
CRUZ
PAUL
RUBIO
WALKER
EDUCATION
/ COMMON CORE
IMMIGRATION
SOCIAL / RELIGIOUS
ISSUES
STRONG NATIONAL
DEFENSE
DEFICIT / GOVT
SPENDING
OBAMACARE
SECOND
AMENDMENT
Sources: "
https://www.conservativereview.com/2016-presidential-candidates"
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJNBCpoll05042015.pdf "
"
http://www.ontheissues.org/Jeb_Bush.htm "
http://www.ontheissues.org/Scott_Walker.htm "
Large Super
PAC
Social Media
Followers
Grass Roots
Support
NO
NO
Sophisticated
Data Analytics
CRUZ
BUSH
HUCKABEE
NO
PAUL
NO
NO
RUBIO
WALKER
Raised $10 million from 90,000 donors in the first 100 days of campaign
Campaign managed by great executives not people who can write and produce TV
commercials
Creative/Messaging Team led by one of the worlds premier firms hired by the
Establishment to rebrand the Party - They want to work with Ted. The creative minds
behind the Salvation Army Campaign, Chick-fil-A, Home Depot, Paul Harvey I am a
farmer Superbowl ad
Grassroots organization is nationwide not just Iowa the only candidate even close is
Paul
Anderson County
Spartanburg
Aiken
Dorchester
Cruz
28%
27%
32%
36%
30%
Bush
5%
1%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Carson
9%
1%
N/A
N/A
16%
Graham
3%
6%
N/A
N/A
4%
Huckabee
3%
9%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Paul
3%
1%
7%
6%
7%
Rubio
8%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Walker
22%
25%
30%
32%
25%
Greenville and Spartanburg victories are most impressive as they are two
largest and most populated GOP counties in the state
Keep the Promise rolls out a positive campaign in key primary states around
the first debate
Real upside potential - Ted is polling very low with Evangelicals as many are
unaware of his deep faith
Donor
Adelson, Sheldon & Miriam
Simmons, Harold
Perry, Robert
RickeEs, John
Mercer, Robert
Thiel, Peter
Childs, John
Perenchio, A Jerrold & Margaret
Rowling, Robert
McNair, Robert
Total Given
$91,780,000
$25,665,000
$23,450,000
$13,050,000
$5,409,354
$4,735,000
$4,225,000
$4,100,000
$3,635,000
$3,175,000
CAN
HE
WIN?