Anda di halaman 1dari 32

PROBABILITY & STATISTIC

PROBABILITY

Objectives of Sampling.

It is a concept ofmathematics which measures the degree


ofcertainty or uncertainty ofthe occurrence ofevents.
. If any event can happen in rn ways and.fails in n
ways and each of the (m + n) ways are equallylikely
to occur, then probability ofthe happening ofthe

Sampling aims at gathering the maximum information

events is defrned as the

tallrng as

o
.

,utio,

m+n

and that of its

n
.

about the population with the minimum effort, cost


and time. The object of sampling studies is to obtain
the best possible value of the parameters under specific
conditions. Sampling determinesthe reliability of these
estimates. The iogic of the samplingtheory is the logic
of induction in which we pass from a particular
(sample) to general (population). Such a generalization
from sample to population is called statisti.cal inference.

m+n
Ifprobability
- ofthe happening is denoted byp and
not happening by q, then p + q = l.

Sampling Distribution.
Consider all possible sample of size n which can be
drawn from a given population at random. For each

If event is certain to happen, its probability is unity.


Ifhappening is impossible, then its probability is zero.

sample, we can compute the mean. The mean of the


samples will not be identical. If we group these
different means according of their frequencies, the
frequency distribution so formed is known as sampling
distribution of the uleqn. Similarly we can have
sampling distribution ofthe standard divination etc.
When drawing each sample, we put back the previous
sample so that the parent population remains the same.

SAMPLING
A small section selected from the population is called
a sample and the process of drawing a sample is called
samplirug.

Random sampling.
It is essent

e must be a random

This is called sampling with reploremenf and all subsequent


formulae will perbain to sampling with replacements.

the fundamental assumption underlying theory of

STANDARD ERROR.
The standard error is used to assess the difference
between the expected and observed values. The

selection so
ofthe population has
the same chance of beingincludes in the sample. Thus
sampling is random sampling

Simple sampling.
A special case of random sampling in which each event
has the same probability p of success and the chance
ofsuccess ofdifferent events are independent whether
previous trials have been made or not, is called simple

sampling.

Parameters.
The statistical constants of the population such as mean
( p), standard deviati
on (o) etc. are called th e p arameters.

Statistics.
Constants for the sample drawn from the given
population i.e. mean (x ), standard deviation (S) etc.
are called statistic. The population parameters are in
general, not known and their estimates given by the
corresponding sample statistic are used. We use the
Greek letters to denoted the population parameters
and Roman letters for sample statistic.

standard deviation ofthe sarnpling distribution is callecl


standard error (S.E.). Thus the standard error of the
sampling distribution ofmeans is called standard error
of means. The reciprocai of the standard error is called
precision..

If n > 30, a sample is called large otherwise small.


The sampling distribution of large samples is assumed
to be normal.

POPUI,ATION.
Collection of all possible samples is population. It is
impractical to collect data on each sample of a
population. Statistics helps to determine the best
estimate of the population parameter from randomly
selected samples. Because random erros are involved
in determination of parameters, the estimate will
represent a parameter with a given probability only.

3.2

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

}IEASIJRES OF CEI{TRAL TENDENCY


These'are the Mean (Arithmetic Mean A.M or the
average), Median (positional average), Mode (value of
the variable which occurs most, frequently) Geometric
\Iean (G.M. used extensively in frnding the rate of
population growth) and the Harmonic Mean (H. M.)
Let rr, xr, .............. r., be the observed values and let
J- be the frequency of x, (t,) value of r repeated f

<nn

*"-1N Y4",,whereN=In
?=t'
r.=r
Median.
Median divides the collection of data into two equal
parts. Hence this is a positional average.
Mode.
Mode is the value which occurs most frequently.

,times).
i.e.. if the data is 3, 1, 3, 3, 2, I, 3, 2,2, then
x, = 1, xz= 2 and xs = 3,and /, = fz= 3 andf,, = 4.

Mode =o+

Arithmetic mean(.).

1 (tr' +x2 + .... + r^, 1+


=

,_= ;

where (a - b) = modal class


4 = rnaximum frequency

i\tt

and for frequcncy distribution

i=

*-{11x1

c(fi- ft-)
2fi-fi-t-fr*r

C = constant difference for each class.

f2x2+....+fnxr)

Example. Find median of the following data.


Cost

Items in a group:

r0-20

20-30

30-40

40-50

50-60

Solution.
Cost

Numberof iterhs in the


group

Cumulative frequency

10-20
20-30

L2

18

30- 40

40-50
50-60

L2

Here. lN=21.
Hencc

N
^

= 10.5. The median class is B0 - 40.


.t0

Frcm fon-n ula. Median=go+i(10.5-9)=30+1.25


= 51.25
I2

Example. Find mode for the following distribution:


Class interval

Solution.
Maximum frequency = 2g
.'.
Modal class = 40 _ b0
Mode=

Er"

o*-9!t-tr)-=40+
2fi
- [i-t - fi -t

10(28

- 12)
(2 x 28) -12-20

= 4O + 6.666

46.G7

he following frequency table

Nlonthly Expenditure
0-10
t0 -20
(in hundreds of rurreesr
Number of families
,
I4
If mode for the distribution is 24, calculate the missing

20

-30

27

f."q""*t""

30-40

40-50

15

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

Solution.
Let missing frequencies for the classes 10

20 and 30

40 be

f, and I respectively.

Expenditure

Number of families

Cumulative frequency

0-10

L4

l4

10-20
20-30
30-40
40-50

t4
4I

Il
27

4l+f,+f,
56+t+f,

f,
15

N = 100 =86+fr+fz
fr+f" = 1gg-5$=44
Mode is given tobe24, which lies in the class 20

Mode = o+

24 =20

C(fi

- 30. So 20 - fi:,)

30 is the modal class.

2fi-fi;-fi*t
10(27

-ft)

(2x27)-ft-fz

270 -r0f1
54-tr-li =

a'ri _()A

(')

2t0 -r0f1

('.'fr+fr= 44)

54-44

fr=23

"'
in (r) , we get
Substituting

fz

21.
-

Relation between Mean, Mode and Median.


For a symmetrical distribution
Mean =Median=Mode

Harmonicmean.
It is the reciprocal of mean
H=

and for a moderately asymmetrical distribution

Mode=3Median-02Mean.
Mean-Mode = 3 (Mean-Medain)

-----l---Ir n
I

and for a

of reciprocals, i.e.

'F(tlr,)

[";i
frequency distribution,

.I
|

)
n

Geometric mean (G).

G = n.,l x1x2......xn = (xrxr...........*n)''"


and for a frequency distribution,
G

= (rf r*....... "# )t'*

where N =

ir,

i=1

Skewness.
Skewness is defined as lack of symmetry.

1n

a)log(r;)
n-

Coeffrcient of skewness =

and for a frequency distribution,

logG=

= tfi

,*r))

For both cases, taking log,

IogG=

where N

Mean-Mode
Standard deviation

1+"
*ltloe(ri)

If n' and n2ate

sizes and G, and Grare geometric

means of two series, then geometric mean of the


combined series is given by

logG= ntlogGt+nzlogGz
n1+n2
Geometric mean is used to find the rate of
population growth and the rate ofinterest and it is
also used in the construction of index numbers.

Negatively skewed

Positively skewed

5.4

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

MEASURES OF DISPERSION.
The set of constant which would in a concise way explain
the "variability" or "spread" in a data is known as
"measures of dispersion or variability".

The average for two groups of the same number of


measurements may be equal, but one group may be
more variable than the other.
e.g. set of frve values 5, 6,7,8, t has the mean as 7;
while another set of frvevalues 1,6,4, 10, 14 alsohas
the same mean 7. The second set has, obviously more
variability than the frrst.
UsuaIIy four rneasures of dispersion are defined:
1. Range.
This is the difference between two extreme
observations in the data given.
In a frequency distribution ,
fi, = (largest

value)

(smailest

r value).

Obviously, this is not a very satisfactory measure


except in cases where the number of observations
are small and a quick calculation for the scatter is
needed. It is used in statistical quality control studies
rather widely.
2.

O=

/1 .,^-

\i't*'

Q,=/+

rC;

I
where we locate Q, - class and Q" - class properly
I = lower limit of the quartile class
C = cofirrnon factor

Quartile deuiation is defined as

Q.D.=

re,_Q,l

3. Average deviatiorJ(l).
Ifaverage chosen is A (say), then average deviation
about A is A.D.

'tA. D. (A) = : > .l(x; - A) | for discrete data

il

1;/_/.,ftlxi - A I for a frequency


n

disiribution.

Usually, we take either median or the mean as the


aYerage.

4. Standard deviation (Root mean square


deviation).
Standard deviation.

for frequency distribution.

Square ofthe standard deviation , o2 is defrned as


the variance (V).

v = oz =
fr>f,tr,

-t)'

Out of these measures, the last , o is widely used


as a companion to r on which is based, when
dealing with dispersion or scatter.

Calculation of V or o.

fy
rsz _\z-tiul
t\ rs2Pl
Ltivl
t
v _ |
lrg2

LN

Some important resrrlts.


. Average d,eviation is least when taken from the
median.
. Standarsd deviation is not less than the average
deviation from the mean.
. For raw data xr, x2, ......x,,,

!-2
v=--t-l

or V=

/l-.\2
l4*l

\N/

5"-2

4 - @)'

.n

If n r,t?2are sizes oftwo fJroups, x17 x2 theirmeans


or, 6, their standard deviations, then standard
deviation of the combined group is determined fron
(n, + nr) o2=
where,

,r

dr= i -11

G? - a?) + ,,, ("1+


and

al)

dr= x-x2,

r being the combined mean.. This


extended to more than two groups.

result

can be

Coefficients to Dispersion.
When two series of measurements have to be
compared, then averages nray be different and the
units which the measurements are recorded may
also be different. Hence, coefficients of dispersion
are provided as

. Ranse
n;,lj
A+

wltere

A is largest qnd B is smallest of

the ualues.

n.-

for discrete data

I f, (" i - i)'
./li1\

Quartile deviation.
Median bisects the distribution. If we divide the
distribution, into four parts, we get what are called
quartiles, Q' Q, = median and Q.. The frrst quartile
Q,, would have 25 percent of the values below it
and the rest above it;the third quartile would have
75 percent ofvalues below it and the rest above it.
The method of calculation of quartiles is similar to
that of the median with slight variations.
N!:
lQt
In -

.9

-xl

'
.
.

Qs-Qr
Qs *Qr
Average deviation aboutA

A
Eaclt of these is free from units of measurement
and is a pure number.
Coefficient of variation (C.V) = 9 , 100
Thus coeffrcient of variation is r Our""rrf"*".

5.5

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

ELENIENTS OF PROBABILITY

Sinite sannp\e space.

Experiment.

A sample space

An experiment is a process in which a certain work is


repeated under the same conditions. the outcomes (or
results) of which need not be the same.
e.g. tossing a coin or rolling a die are experiments

Sample space.

ia said to be a f,rnite sample space,

if

is a frnite set.

Finite probability space.


Let S = (apar......., o,) be afrnite sample space. S is
.
said to be a finite piobability space or probabiiity
model, if each sample point

a, in S we can assign
number p,, called probability of a such that
(t) p,2 , for each i

The set S of all possible outcomes of a given experiment


is called sample spoce for the experiment. An outcome
an element of S, is called a sample point.
e.g. for experiment of tossing a fair (or unbiased) coin

real

(ii) pr+ Pz+........ + p,,= |

sample space S = (H, T)


where H, T refer to head. tail respectively.

If A is an event, then probability of A, denoted by P(A)


is sum of the probabilities of the sample points in A.
For the elementary event [o,] we write P(o.) instead of

Event.

P(o).

A subser of the sample space S is ca\led an euellt. The

\qu\1ro\r\\eslace.
A finite probability space S in which
each sample point
has the same probability is called an
equfprobable

spctce.

IfE

A, B. We can form new events using

ons of union, intersectio., urrJ

is an event, then

P(E)

(l) A u B is the event that occurs if


and only if A
occurs or B occurs (or both).
(ii) Aa B is the event that
occurs if and only if both

(iii) 6c or
4^,the co.mqlement of A, is the event that
occurs ifand only ifA does notoccur.

Mutually exclusive events.


Thro events A and B are said to
be

if and only if they cannot occur


ifAnB=0.

mutually exclusive
simultaneously, i.e.

Three or more events are called mutually


exclusiue,
every two of'them are mutuall5, exclusive.

if

= total number of subsets of S

= lp(S) |
wherep(S) is power set of S 2,,.
=
Example. In_ an experiment, a fair coin
is tossed 4
timcs. Describe the sample

Solution.
The sample space S consists of 16 (=
2a) sample points.
S = IHHHH, HHHT,-HHTH, HTHH,

THHH, HHTT,
HTHT,
THHT, HTTT,
THTH,
THTT, TTHT TTTH,
TTTTI

HTTH, TTHH,

We use the word.,,at random,, only


when dealing
with a equiprobable space. By the sLtement, ,,a
baII
is drawn at random from a bag condisining
10 balls,,
we mean that each ball in the bag
has the same
probability of being chosen.

If p = probability of happening of an event


E = p(E)

and q = probability of not happening


of E = e (E)

Example. Find total number of possible


events that
can occur for an experiment.
Solution.
Let sample space S consist of n sample
points. Then
total number of possible events

lsl
number of outcomesw favourable to
E
botal number of possible o"t.or*.

and B occurs.

_ lEl

then s=P(E) =
#=11#=r-l# =t_p
= p+e=I
Conditional probability.

.
.

P(AB) = P(A) . P(B/A)


n P(AB) = P(B). p(A/B)

P(A/B)

P(A/B)

P(AB)
P(B)

P(A)'-|{B/A),
P(B)

this is Baye,s retation

where, P(B/A) is probability to happening


B, when
A has already happened.

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

5.6

Let E be an event in a sample space S with P(E) > 0.


Let an event A occurs after the occurence ofE. Then
co,n.ditional probability of a given E,

Mutual independence.
Let (E, : A is a positive integer) be a collection ofevents.
These events are said to be mutually independent if
for each frnite non-empty subset {E' E2, .......E,}
P (E, n E, n....n E,,) = P (Er). P(Er) ....P (E,)

Pairwise independence.
S

Let {E* :ft is a positive integer) be a collection of events.


These events are said to be pairwise independent if

Fig. Conditional Event


P (A/E)

nE)
,(E

P(A

P(wE)=

!+f,,

p (E) = j|_i

"'3,:3'
PIEI ='o':P'
IEI

number of elements inAnE


number of elements in E
Note : P (A/E). P (E) = P (An E) is calledMrzltiplication
Theorem for conditional probability.
Example. Suppose a pafu of fair dice is rolled. If sum is
6, then what is the probabiJity

that

n E)

= P (E,). P (E) for

if P (E) > 0.
Possible independent events are not mutually

An event E is said to be a possible event,

exclusive.

Possible mutuallv exclusive events are not


independent.

Example. Let p be the probability that a man agedy


years will meeet with an accident in a year. What is
the probability that a man among n men all aged y
years u.ill meet with an accident frrst ?

Solution.
Probabilitythat aman agedy years willnotmeet with
an accident

=l-p

P (none meets

one die shows a 2 ?

with an accident)

Solution.

(t-p)(t-p)

. ..(1- pl
n times

Sample space S consists of 6 x 6 = 36 sample points


(1, 1), (1, 2), .... (6,5). (6, 6)).
E = sum is 6 = {(1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1)}

= I(2, l), (2,2), (2,3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2,6), (I,2),
(3, 2), (4, 2), (5, 2), (6, 2))

Also, An E = {(2, 4),(4,2)l


11
2
5
Thus, P(E)= ;,P(A)=
;,P(AnE)= ;
P(A n E)
Requiredprobability=
- P (AlE) = + P(E) /
2

= 36ob

36

DEPENDEIVT E\MNTS.

Events A and B in the space S are said to be


independent if occurence of one of them does not
influence the occurence ofthe other
i.e. B is dependent of A if P(B/A) = P(B).
Now P (A n B) = P(A). P(B) (B lA) = p141 p13;
Thus events A and B are independent

(1-p)''

P (atleast one man meets with an accident)

A= 2 appears on atleast one die

ifP(AnB)=P(A).P(B)

alli + j.

Possible event.

P(A/E) represents the probability of A with respect to


the reduced sample space E.
Wheg S is an equipobable space,

p(An.E)=

P (E,

So,

= 1- (1 -p),,
P (atleast one man meets with an accident
a person is chosen)
1

=;"t1-(1-P)"1
Example. A box contains 4 white, 3 blue and 5 green
balls. Four balls are chosen. What is the probability
that aII three colours are represented ?

Solution.
Total number of balls in the box is 12.
Hence total number of wavs in which 4 balls can be
chosen
v4- -12rl

l2xl-l-x
4

x3

10 x 9

x2xl

= 495

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

5;7

Each colour will be represented in the following


mutually exclusive ways
Blue
White
Green
:

(t)2r1
(iilL21
uii\112
.'.

=90+60+120=270
Required probability

270
=

;i=L nto / B; )P(B;

- tt n such that P(A) > 0, we have


1

P(E,/A)

(ii),

Independent repeated trials of an experiment with two


outcomes only are called Bernouilli trials, call One of
the outcomes is called success and the other outcome
is called failure.

p = probability of success in a Bernouilli trial


q = probability of failure = 1 -p.
A binomial experiment consisting of a frxed number n
oftrials is denoted hy B (n, p).
Probability of r success in the experiment B (rz, p) is
p (r) = ,,C, p, q"-,
Thc function P(r) for r = 0 ,I,2........., n for B (n, p) is

binomial distribution.
Example. If four coins are tossed , find the
called

=fr,i=1,2,.,n

p = probability ofa head

q = probability of a tait =

i -p

E, and E" be the events of choosing urns A, B

and C respectively.

I
E

... Q)

Let X be the event of choosing two balls, white and


red. To frnd P(EolX).
By Baye's theorem,

four coins are tossed


nCrp'
=P (2 ) =

=6x

qn-t

[l')' " (r)'-- q

\2) [z/

RANDONVARIABLE.
Many variables of interest in a system are not
expressible on explicit function of time, all such variable

on explicit function of time, all such variable are


classifred as random variable. These are implying
uncertaintv about their exact nature.
Random Variable

(E/x)

=+
2

.'. Probability of getting 2 heads (and 2 tails) when

Solution.

P(Er) P(Er) = P(E.)

charrce

that there should be two heads and two tails.

i=r

Then

T+ 2 = #
5-5-ii

Solution.

P(A/E,)P(E,)

Example. Three urns A, B and C have 1 white , 2


black, 3 red balls, 2 white I black, 1 red balls and 4
white, 5 black, 3 red balls respectively. One urn is
chosen at random and two balls are drawn. They
happen to be white and red balls. What is the probability
that they came from urn B ?

E'

P(E/X) =

BERNOUILLI TRIALS.

F pra / E, )p(E, )
/-,/

Let

,.

=;

given by

Bay's theorm.
Let E,, Er, ...... E" be mutualJy exclusive events such
that P(E,) > 0 for each i.
Then for any event A

4r- x3o

-ju-

Let

LAW OF TOTAL PROBABILITY.


Let B, Br, ....... B^ be mutually exclusive and let an
event A occur only ifanyone ofB. occurs. Then
P(A) =

P(x/E3) =

From

Number of ways of drawing four balls in the above


fashion
- nC"" 3C, x 5C, + aC, x;lC, x 5C, + aC. x 3C, x 5C,

.'.

and

P(X|E2)P(E2)
P(X / El)P(Er) + P(X I E2)P (E2) + P(X /EB)P(Es)

P(X/E2)
P(X /E1) + P(X /Ez)

+ P(X

Continuons

{from (l)}

/Es)

lC, 3C' I
"
P(X{E.)=
-'---r' -#=-'
6Cz

b'

2n

Discrete

ln

P()vE)-"ct^'cr-1
qC2
,.

l)iscrctc Probability
Ttrcory

Continu<.rus Plobabi)

Theory

ity

5.8

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

Let X be a random variable.


. Function F(r) = P (X < .r) is called distributiott
function of X.
. MeanorExpectation of X= U =E (X)

=X(o,)

P (o,)

(X = r) = probability that there are


preceding the frrst success.

,)

+X(o,,) p (o,)

E()0

rp
t-'(Qi)'

where S is probability space (a,., a", .....ct,)


Variance of X = Var (X) = 02 = E (Xr) - tE(X)],

= qp (L

t)

qpqpq

(t- q)'

.J

;t)

;o

EOG)

21 7
62

i.

q = probability of failure

Var (X) = E()f)

=p-p2

offailure preceding the frrst success.


Since an infinite series of independent trials are

X=0 ,1,2

=p

[E(X)]'?

=(t_p)
=pq
frequency.
Absolute
Let a value x, is repeated

times, then

frequency or absolute frequency.


f.
Let N = sum of all frequencies f then

relative frequency, i = 1, 2 .........n.


Sum ofall relative frequencies

fi fz
- N N '""""""'
fn
fi+fz

Let X be the random variable representing the number

conducted,

Product [a! xPt


p

Solution.
Let p = probability of succes

=l_

E(X) =p

11p

Example. What is the-expectation of the number of


failure preceding the frrst success in an infrnite series
of independent trials with constant probability of
success p in each trial ?

.'.

Product

Mean = f, (X) =p.

Now to find Var (X) :


P(o,)
ei t?

E(X) =
Expectation =

.'.

I
;t)

'

I
;o

P (o,)
pp
q0

4,.I
1

P-

-9-Z-

Solution.

;o

['.'(l-gf'zbyBilromialtherre.-.

variable X taking the value 1 with probability P ad


the value 0 with probability q. Find f,hs msan :'avariance of X.

;o

-Sf'

Example. The Bernouilli probability lau'rnri


parameter p in which 0 < P < l is defrned by a ranC,_=

Product
1

=I+2q+3q3+....

Let X be the random variable showing number of points.

,.

Lxq'-

= L qp + 2q'p + Sq3p + ......


= qp (1+ 2q + 3q2 + ......)

Solution.

Then X= 1,2,3,4,5,6
Qi P(X = a,) =P (a,')

r)

--

r=0

Standard deviation ofX = o


Example. Find expectation of the number of points
when a fair die is rolled.

l-

= )xp(X
.r=0

l,=1

failures

= qxqx.......xqxp=q.p
r times

-- YvrL'-\-t

=-N
-1

fr

fn

5.9

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION.

P(A) = P(xu)

where,

t2

= Prob"ilility of outcome A.
ne = times occur A
n = total time experiment

1+

+3

p(A + B) = P(A) + P(B)

here, p(AB)

The probability of the number of successes so


obtained is called the binomial distribution for
the simple reason that the probability are the
successive terms in the expansion of thebinominal
(q + p)".
Hence sum of the Probabilities
= q" + "C, pqn-t + "Crprgn-, +....+ p.

=(q+p)"
=1
Constants of the binomial distribution'
Moment generating function about the origin is
M^(0 = Bis*)
*
= I,,C, p"q,, c,*
=

In

C, (pet)*

q.

(q + Pet)"

Diff'erentiating with respect to t and putting


I = 0. we get the mean given
M,,,ttl = e' nPr iq + Pc')"
= (qe-rL +

Peqi\n

b;/

+3

=1+npqh*"oo,o-p)3t
+npq [1 + 3(n

2) Pq]

*
e

+....

Equating coefficients of like power of t on either


side, we have

F' = nPq' Pt'


= npq(q-P)

joint ProbabilitY.

- t, nCz ptqn - 2,...."C.p'qn -',.'.'..,P^


e^, "C, pen

t4

t2

P(AB)

1. DISCRETE DISTRIBUTION
(i) Binomial Distribution.
It is concerned with trials of a repetitive nature in
which only the occurrence or non-occurrence'
success or failure, acceptance or erejection, yes or
no ofa particular event is ofinterest'
If we perform a series of independent trials such
that for each trial p is the probability ofsuccess and
q that ofa failure, then the probability ofr successes
in a series of n trials is given by .C.P'Q"-', where r
takes any integral value from 0 to n.
The probabilities of 0, 1,2,......t,....-,fl successes are
therefore, given bY

*p'i**...

LOV
*.
g,t*1r"D.*frn*Un
n!

This limit may not exist.


o This definition presumes that all outcomes are
equaily likely to occur'

,tJ

+pq(q3
t2

lT, "o

,z

= l+pq,+pqtq'-n"o

Suppose that a random experiment is repeated n times.


If an event A occurs n,, times, then its probability p(A)
is defined as

fr+

.f\lSO,

2)pq]

.:r-2P)2

nPq
^ 1-6pq

tt2

rr

v?=-(q-p)'

P,=..3
O

.'.

= npe [1+ 3(n

p,

nPq

nPq

P;

-=.)T-

Mean = np
Standard deviation = {(ttpq)

7-2p

Skweness

r/nPq
Kurtosis = Fz
Obs. Skewess is Positive for P <
and negative for p

/r)

r1)

\t)

[;J

s
I

be sYmmetrical

efrnitelY, 0, -+ 0

i'e. ProbabilitY

Binomial fo equencY distribution.


If n independent trials constitute one experiment
and this experiment be repeated N-times. then
frequency of r successes = Nn C. P'Q"-'.
The possible number of successes together with
these expected. frequencies constitute binomial
frequency distribution.

Applications of binomial distribution.


This distribution is applied to problems concerning
(o) Number of defectives in a sample frorn
production line.
(b) Estimation of reliability of sysiem.

(c) Number of rounds frred from a gun hitting a


target.
(d Rader detection.

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

5-10

(ii) Poisson Distribution.

It is a distribution related to the probabilities

of

events which are extremely rare, but which have a

p(a<X<b) = lf(*)d,

large number of independent opportunities for


occurrence.
e.g. number of persons born blind per year in a
large city is the phenomena, in which this law is
followed.
This distribution can be derived as limiting case of
the binomial distribution by making n very large and
p very small keeping np frxed (=m, say)

The probability of

successes

distribution
P(r) = nC.P'q"-'

- t) (n -

n(n

np(np

2)...(n

in a binomial

r!

p)(np

2p)..(np

-r-

1p)(t

- p)n-'

il,.
" (l- m/n)' rl
TnZ gm-tt

2\

,....

Sum of thcse probabilities is unity as

:-

*t

"-*

r\

it

,..,..

= Jft'u'
_d)

lo
l"
if;^ x<a
lx-a
,tf a< )c<b
I
.
= l-o-q if )c>b
t1

distributions defined by the variates like heights


or weights are continuous distributions.

e.g.

A major conceptual difference, however, exists


between discrete and continuous probabilities. When
thinking in discreate terms, the probability associated
with an eventis mcaningfuI. With continuous event,
however, where number of events is infrnitely large,
the probability that a specifrc event will occur is

practically zero. For this reason, continuous


probability statements must be worded somewhat,
differently from discrete ones. Instead offinding the
probability that z equals some value, we frnd the
probability ofx falling in a small interval.
Thus probability distribution of a continuous variate
x is defrned by a function 1(x) such that probability
of the variate x falling in the small interval

11

dxlis f(x) dx.

Let X be a continuous random variable. If


probabilitv density functions of X, then
.:

. plX.o)= Jf?)dx

n(x3b

should be.

gives rise to continuous distribution of X.

[x
'2.2
- ^ dxJto [x +

o-a

The uniform distrihution geneta\\y arises in the


study of round ott errors wtrete measutements ane
recorded upto a certain level of accuracy.
Curmtl,atiue distribution function of X is giuen by
f (x) = p (X< r).

CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBI.]TION.


When a variate X takes e'i'ery value in an interval,

it

L,

= O, otherwise

e-m

that probabi\i\ies of 0, \, 2, . ..'.', r,...'.. success in


poisson distributio is gvenbY

---

br^
tt -E(x)"f(x)dxl
J

f ^r.,
f I\x)ax=L

flr)

so

n'. ,,'c.r

variance ofX=y(X)

= j-| xf(x)dx

its probability density function is given by

r!

- rl

Expectation ofX = E (X) = Mean

(i) Uniform Distribution.


A continuous random variable X is said to follow
uniform distribution or rectangular distribution if

- r + 1) p"qn -'

Asn-+@,p+0(np=6;,
m' Lr (1- m / n)2 m'
p(r)=
-

a
I

Mean

o:b,

= 2t2and Varian "u = 9--t-

Example. The melting point X of a certain


specimen be assumed to be a continuous random
variable which is uniformly distributed over the
interval [110, 120]. Find the density function of X,
mean of X, variance of X and P (lI2

is

< 115.).

Solution.
Here.a=100.b=120

(t ^
|
110<r<120
Itx)= i120_110,
otherwise
I o,
(rl
110<r<120
=

/(r)

<

110,

otherwise
lo,
a+b 110+120
------=
Meanof X=
=115
=2=2
-

5.11

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

(iii) Normal Distribution.

9:-9-

VarianceofX =

A continuous random variable X is said to follorv


normal distribution if its probability density function

L2

(120

110)2

is

12

(t-p,

- o,:I
nx1 = __7e ."

-T
25

o"l2r

co <ft( o6
-@<r( 6,o)0,We write in such a situation X - N (u, o')

1 1-5

P[L2<r<115

lf{xldx

tiz

The distribution involves hvo parameters

I,
r| ----4X

lra

rt2
a

10

(ii) Exponential Distribution.

Area =

if its probability

a being some

k)= )ae-"*'x>0
[0, otherwise

positive number, called its parameter

electronic components.
Also the inter-arrival time and service time in
queuing theory have exponential distributions.

ll
- i,a

Variance =

*a"-_-b^

Example. The sales tax retuYn oYg salesman is

'l
exponentially distributed^Mith paramdter i . What
.4
is the probability that his sale will exceed Rs, 10,000
assuming that sales tax is charged at the ratepf 57o
on the sales ?

It -:=,

Here,

Nor-!l

(e)

-@
y = l\x) bounded by the axis of r is 1.

Some important points.


. The curve y = f(x), called normal curve is a
bell-shaped curue.It is symmetrical about r = rti
the two tails on the left and right sides of the
mean extend to infrnity'.

=IP(x<500)=1-\0 JfG)dx

l-t

6,

Then z is called a stanclard norrnal

1 c-;o

,-(,/i 1z1ar
^l2r
Mean of the standard normal distnbution
Variance is 1. We \mtEZ- N (0. 1).

is 0 and

Area under the standard normal curve.


(o) Between z = - 1 and z = L is 0.6827
(since total area under standard normal
curvg is 1)
i.e.' p (-l <z <I) =0.6827

z = - 2 and z = 2 is 0.9545
i.e., p (-2 <z <2) = 0.9545
(c) Betwee\ z = - 3 and z = 3 is 0.9973
i.e., p(-3 <z<3) =0.9973
(b) Betweerr

= 1+ ie-rl4)500
125

r-

z,

.
500

=e

PuL z=

uariate and its probability density function is given

otherwise

P(x>500)

-x/4

i.e. total area under the curve

FQ)=

= Rs. 500

1-1
l"
4un

Jffrla*=7,

r>o

500

r.

bY

= 10000 * 100

> 0 for all

Sales tax for the sale of Rs. 10,000

Now,

curve

coincide.

(d) fk)

lU) =)*

lu ,

O.S

(c) For this distribution, mean, median and mode

Solution.

)-e

density

This distribution arises in the study of life-length of

Mean

0.5 !Y 4.."

\ /-T-V

A continuous random variable X is said to have the

and o.

Properties.
(o) The distribution is symmetrical.
(b) Mean - p, Variance = o2.

J10

exponential distribution
function is given by

pt

5.12

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

In other words,

CEI',{TRAL UNIT THEOREM.

p(p-o<x<V+o)={.6827
p0r2c <r < p +2o)= 0.9545
p(r3c<r<V+3o)=0.9973

The normal (or Gaussian) distribution has played a


significant role in the study of random phenomena in
nature. Many naturally occurring random phenomena
are approximately normal . Central-limit theore states
that sum of a la,rge number of independent random
uarinbles, undcr certainconditions can be approximated
by a normal distribution.

p(p-

1.96 o

<x <p + 1.96o) = 0.95

pqtlZ.Sgo <x <

o) = 0.99

rr + 2.58

Since distribution is symmetric, we consider


only positive values of z.

1
lxt = offi

__2

Then

0Q) =

under the

"-T
0

nor mal

'z=0antdz=2.

dz glves the area

curve between

For different values ofz, Q(z) can be calculated.


These values of 0(z) have been tabulated.

=" ;

.o.r"roonding

-L
a^l2r"*o- -

(x-u)2

-r;r(*)l
2o"

GAUSSIAN PROCESS.

fly) =

' where,

to a value of z from this table.


Many distributions tend to

If mean = 0, i.e. p = 0,
then (x) =

There is another table c,glled table of


ord,inates.Weread pQ)

exP

----l--u"oLo-!rf
- 2or"
"l(2xor')

!tr= mean
o 2= variance

normal distribution

in the limit.

it can be made
normal using some suitable transformation.
When a variable is not normal,

When the sample size is large, distributions of


the sample mean, sample variance etc. approach
normality. Thus the distribution forms a basis
for tests of significance.
Normal distribution is also known asdistribution
of errors.

NORMALTZED GAUSSIAN RANDOM VARIABLE.

It mean of the standard normal distribution is 0 and


variance is 1, we write Z - N (0, 1).
The distribution function of Xare plotted respectively.

Mean and variance of X are

p =ElXl=[
o*t =E[(X-F*)2J=o2
We use the notation N(p ;o2) to denote that X is normal
(or Gaussian) with mean m and variance o2.
In particular, X = N (0 ; 1), i.e. X with zero mean and
unit variance is defrned as a normalized Gaussian
re,ndom uariable.

Gausslaut Pulse

Properties of Gaussian process.


(t) If a Gaussian process x(t) is applied to a stable

(ii)

linear filter, then random process V(t) developed.


The output of the frlter is also Gaussian.
Consider the set of random variables or samples
x(t,), x(tr), x(t,) ---- obtained by observing a random
process x(t) at time t' t", -----.

Second moment or Mean square value.


Consider random variable X which assume the possible
value x,, x2, xB ----- x,,. fn a sequence of n experiment,
let event xr occur n, time, x2 occur n, times etc.
Arithmetic average or mean of xu is
.!a _[lXt +I]2x2 +----+xm nm
1m

=at
n,H.
K=l

xt Dt

& STATISTICS

'ROBABILITY

If n -+ co, then

t7

-lL

-->

4",

p(x,)

= Pr"t

-\=L
k=1

','

tX,'=I(r,- i),
zxz2

-Ixi2+n(x)2-2;Ix,

+----

=In2+q{-,'*t.I'

CORREI"ATION.
In a divariate distribution, ifthe classes in one variable
are associated by clases in the other, then variables
are called correlated.If ratio of two variable deviations
is constant, then correlation is called,perfect.
Co-effr cient of correlation.
Numerical measure of correlation is called co-effrcient
ofcorrelation and is defined as
f =

2n2

If X, Y be the deviation of x, y from their mean, then

Ptxr'

avg

l+2+3+...+n n(n+1)_n+1

Y=V=

Pzxz* ---- P- X-

nt"r'*

andIJ=

5.13

n(n+1)(2n+1)

=
Similarly

t,r,-r,)

t,"

tY''

xi-Y'
(",- i)-(y,X,-Y,

d,
d,

[ ,
...i':o;
I

where, X = deviation from mean,

l,.zou=Ll
, xu,-l
n

n)

I4'

Id,,
14Y'

=y-

y)

2IXrY,

= ,(2X,2 * IY,, - Idi2)

=)C_,C

Y = deviation from mean, y

1)2

Now let

'XY
n6rcoy

n(n +

11

ftn3-n)-

r>a,,

Hence correlation coefficient between these variables-is

o, = standard deviation ofr series


oy = standard ofy series
n = number of values of the two variables

Method of calculation

Direct ntethod.' Substituting the value of o, and o, in


the above formula, we get

'

J>r':v''"'

vL

r. -

=1_+{
n- -n
J)

Rank correlation.
A group of n individuals may be arranged in order of
merit respect to some characteristic. The same group
would give different order for different characteristics.
Consider order corresponding to two characteristic A
and B. The correlation between these n pairs of ranks
iscalled rank corcelation in the charq,cteristics A and,
B for that group of individuals.

Let x,, y, be the ranks of the i,/,individuals in A and B


respectively. Assuming that no two individuals are
bracketed equal in either case, each ofthe variables
taking the values L,2,3,....., n, we have

This is called ranh correlation cofficierul and is denoted


bv p.

Line of regression.
If dots of scatter diagram generally, tend to cluster
along a well defrned direction which suggests a linear
relationship between variabies x and y, such a line of
best - frt for the given distribution of dots is called the

line of regression.
In fact there are two such lines, one giving the best
possible mean values of y for each specifred value of x
and the other giving the best possible mean values for
x for given values of y. The former is called the line
for
regression ofy on r and the later is called the line of
regression of x on y.

5.1 4

PROBABILITY & STAT]STICS

First consider the line of regression of y on x. Let

ov

straight line satisfying the general trend ofn dots in a


scatter diagram be

J=u+bx

...(r)

-' o*

principle of least squares. Thus normal equations for


a and b are

Iy = ,ra + blx
IxY=alx+blx2

...fti)

which is equation ofthe line ofregression ofy on x. Its


slope is called regressiort co-efficient ofy on x

Interchanging x and y, we find that the line of


regression ofx on y is

This shows that ( x , y ), i.e. means of x and y lie on (l)

Shifting the origin to ( x , y ), equation (fii) takes the


form

'XY
tx'
IXY
tro*2

Thus

regression co-efficient

and

=f"x
regression co-efficient ofx on y
6

ofy on x

6y

bx

(x-x) = ro.. (v-y)


o"

1-_
-IY=a+b':J-x
nn

I(x- i ) (V- V ) = al(x-x) + bl(xBut I(x-x)=0


.l.(x-x,(y-y,
b- X(x x)'

no*o,

(y-yl= r3(*-i)

Equation (ii) gives

y = a+

>xv't

Thus the line of best frt becomes

We have to determine the constants a and b so that


equation (l) gives for each valuc ofx, the best estimate

for the average value of y in accordance with the

[1...I'=

_r_

x ),

=rj 6v

con Correlation co-effrcient is the geometric mean


between the two regression cofficients

ov
or o,

oy-:Lyy--!=

y2

Regression co-efEcient.
It is defrned as the hope oflines ofregression,
i,.e. regression coeffrcient of line x on y

oo^,

5:15

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

OBJECTTVE QUESTIONS
1. A card is taken out of a pack of 52 cards numbered
2 to 53. The probability that the numbers on the
card is a prime number less than 20 is

12
to) ,,
3
tc) ,,

8. If A and B are any two events then which one of


the following pairs of events are mutually
exclusive ?
(o) AuBand

AnB
(c) AuBand At-''g

{6) t',

.4
(d)

9. There are three events A, B, C one of which must'


and only one can haPPen, the odds are

19

number between 1 and


100. Which is divisible by one and itself only is

2. The probability of getting


(n\

(rl

27
185
25

-98

If A

q,

3' "r", 4'

(c) 34 to 13

P(A

r([r

(o) 43 to 34

10.

and B are two elements such that

i6

(b)

n B) = 1,

then

(d)

18

P(A)+ P(E)

0.6
k) 1.2

(a)

6.

(a)

kll'

{d)

2l

tt

2l

12.

-1
13.

129
440

(d) none ofthese

A has one share in a lottery in rvhich there is

three shares in a lottery


inwhich there are 3 prizes and 6 blanks;compare
the probability of lt's success to that of B's success
is
1

P(A

/, \
(o,

429

@ffi

If A and B are two arbitrary events, then

r"t P(M)+ P(N)- 2P(M n N)


tal P(M. x) * e(M n N)

140
-139

n C) + P(A n B) - P(An B n C)

(ot P(M)+P(N)-2P(MnN)
(b) P(M) + P(N) - P(M n N)

tb)

them are placed in another urn' The chance that


the latter then contains 2 red and 6 black balls is

@) r.4

7. I1M and N are two events. then probability that


exactly one ofthem occurs is not equal to

from

black

11. An urn contains 5 red and 10 black balls' Eight of

(b) 0.8

(b) gre.rter than P(A) + P(B)


(c) equal to P(A) + P(B) - P(A u ts)
(d) equal to P(A) + P(B) + P(A u B)

11

12
rc)d

n B) cannot be
(o) Iess than P(A) + P(B)

face
Th

11

(b) P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(B) P(C)


(c) P(An B) + P(An C)- P(An B n C)
P(B

any other

second bag.
ball is

5. If A, B, C are threc evcnts, then PIA n (B v C)] =


(o) P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A n B) - P(A n C)

(;)

(b) 32to23
(d) none of these

3 black and 4 white balls while other contains 4


black and 4 white balls. A dies is cast, if the face 1
and if
or 3 turns uP, a

If A and B are two events such that


P (A u B) = 0.65, P(A n B) = 0'15, then

against B' The odds against

There are two bags one of which contains

(ct It7

5 to 2

C are

23

(d) none of these

p(A) = ?.
P(AuB)=

against A,

8 to 3

{b)

AuBand AnB
(d) AuBandAnB
(b)

prize and

2 blanks; B has

@) 7 :16

(b) 16:7

(c) 6:14

G) 14:6

IfA

and B are independent, then A and

are

also

independent (b)
(c) both (o) and (b) (d)

(o)

dePendent
none of these

14. The chance that a leap year sel'ected at random


will contain 53 SundaYs is
2

(b)

{d) ,

@)t
@7

;I

nI

5.1 6

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

21. The probability of dr wing an ace or a spade or


both from a deck ofcards is

,^'34
,o)
18

(b)

,^t 4

tS

,t\
tcl)

'") 17
22.P(AruAzuAs)

(A,) P (A"/A,) p (A,/A, n A").


(o) Tlue
(6) False
(c) Both (o) and (6) (d) None of these
1

I
I

-P

23. IfP(A/C)> p(B/C)andp(A/C, ) >p(B/Cr


(o) P(A)>P(B)
(6) p gr )< P (B)
(c) P(A)<P(B)
(d) P(A)>P(B)

24,

),

rlrcn

If Aand B are independent

and p (C) = 0, then A,


B and C are independent.
(o) Tlue
(6) False
(c) Both (a) and (b) (d) None of fl-rese

25. Aman altcrnately tosses acoin and throws a clice.


beginningwith thc coin. Then the probability that

will get a head before

he

= P (E,) + P (Ez) + ..... + P (E,.).


This is
(a) Law of total probability
(6) Law o1'probability
(c) Both.4effi (6)
(r{) None of thesc

,^tl
\at

(0.1

t.
19.

973
@)

983

1000

None of these

1000

A five figure number is fbrmed by the digits


0,7,2,3, 4 without repetition. Then the probability
that thc number fbrmed is divisible by 4 is

(clr

,'-\
(cr

16

.,.
(b)

,',
dl

s
16

20. A bag contains 8 white and 6 red balls. The


- probability of drawing two balls of the same colour
l"s

(a)

(c)

AA

6U
-

43

93

ror

43

(d) none of these

4+
F

,'\
\o)

a
b"
5l

(c) *

5!
,

b'

(d) nrine of'these

6'

963

--1000

probability that all will show different faces is

(o)

unknown integer between 0 to 9 within thrce

(bt

ktt 1
26. Six dice are thrown siorultancously. The
1c)

18. Srhat is the probability of correctly choosing an


chances

he gets a 5 or 6 on dice is

27. Given two events A and B and

P(A)= 1,p1s7a;= 1

42
and P(A/B)= i/I

State that following is true'/


(a) A is sub-event of B
(6) P (A,/B)=

"
4

(c) P(A/B)+P(A/B)=1
(d) None of these
28. AboxAcontains 2 whitc and 4 black balls. Another
box B contains 5 white and Z black balls. A ball is
transferred from the box A to thc box B. Then a
ball is drawn from the box Ii. The probabilitv that
it is white is

'*'
(c,,

16

39

I2
39

(o)

T4

39
q

tdt

-39

PROBABIL|TY &

SriTigTfc*sl'

.'

5.17

29. IfP (A) = 0, then P (An B) = 0.


(6)

(o) o
(a) *

35. In an experiment a coin is tossed


the size of the sample space?
(a) 12
(b) 14

(b) none of these

(c)

Which of the following is correct?


(o) IfP(A) > 0, P (B) > 0 and P(A/B) = P (B/A), then

P(A)=P(B).
(b) If A and B mutually exclusive, then

in mechanics is given to three students

A, B and C whose chances of sloggingit r"u'2'3


1. 1
1

;4-respectively. Then probability


problem
and

36. For any two events A and B

P(A nB) =P(B)-P(AnB)


(6) P (A u B) = P (A) + P (B) - P (An
(o)

(o) P (Aw B/C) = P (A/C) + P (B/C)

(d) All of these


31. A problem

20

B)

37. Which of the following is correct?

P(AuB)=1-Pfel.Ptel

times. What is

(c) P(A/B)<P(A).
(d) All of these

(A/B) = P (A)/(1 - P (B))'


If Aand B are independent, then
P

k)

(d)

16

that the

(6) P (A

- P (AnB/C)

n B/C) + P (A n B/C) = P (A/C)

(c) IfA and B are independent, then A and B are


also independent.

(d All

of these

will be solved is

1
\d)

(D)

-4

38. Which of the following is correct?

-2

(c)

(d) none of these

32. A and B throw alternately with a pair of diCe. A


wins if he throws 6 before B throws 7 and B wins
if he throws 7 before Athrows 6. If Abegins, then
his chance of winning is

31
(o)
60
31
^\ _

tar

61

33. If P (A) =

.1

i)

;4Aand P (B) = ;,

(6) The events Er,

exclusive.LetE=U
i:1
If

(a)

P(AuB)>+
'488

(6)

(c)

1-3
*d6<Pfen B )<;

(d) All of these

:<P(AnB)<:

34. Three machines M' M2 and M, produce identical


items. Of their respective output 57o,4o/o and3%
of items are faulty. On a certain day, M, has
produced 25Vo of the total output, M, has produced
307o and M, the remainder. An item selected at
random is found to be faulty. What are the chances
that it was produced by the machine with the
highest output?
(o) 0.155
(b) 0.255
(c) 0.355
(d) 0.455

E,.

P (A/Ei) = P (B/Ei),

i = L, 2,...., n, then
P(A/E)=P(B/E).

61

then

Er, ......., E. are mutually


n

30

(d) none of these

(o) If A, B and C are mutually independent, then


A u B and C are also independent.

(c) Both (o) and (b)

(d

None of these

39. Let p be the probability that a man aged y will get


into an accident in a year. What is the probability
that a man among n men of all aged y will get
into an accident frrst ?

{cr
(c)

1,
r
:(1-(1*p)")

"(1-

(1*

p)")

1,

r/r\

(b)

:(t-ft*
n'

(d

None of'these

p)"

40. What would be the expectation of the numbel of


failures preceding the first success in an infinite
series of independent trials with the constant
probability ofsuccess p ?
1

\a) p

(b) -l

@!p

(d) Nonc of thesc

5.18

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

41. A rcstaurant serves two special dishes A and B to


its customers consisting of 60%, men and 40Vo
women. SOVo of men order dish A and the rest B
andTOa/c' women order dish B and the rest A. In
wlrat ratio of Ato B should the rcstaurant prepare
the dishes?

If

50.

(b)

(c) 16:7

@) 7 :16

(o)

6,,

(c)

p (X,

u'hic[ of thc fbllqrving


(b)

Y)

ofY

on X is

Flence cov (X, Y) is cqual is

(a) 11.25

(b) 7.2

(c) 2.4

(d) none of thcse

is - . If cach
observation is divided by cx., a + 0 and then is
increased by 10, then the nrean ofnew set is
x
r+10
(b)
(cr)
-0,
0

52. The mean of a set of observations

P(A/AuB)=
P(A)
P(A) + P(B)
P(B)
P(A) + P(B)

r+
(cl --

10cr

(d)

C[

IfP(A)=P(B),then
A= B
(c) A* B
(<z)

(6)

B=0

(d) None of these

45. The mcan of a set of number is r . If each number


is increased by )., then mean of the new set is

tc) 1,

(d) none of these

\.c)

47.

48.

t +o'

(b)

)"2o2

(d)

),2

mode of a data is 18 and mean is 24, then


median is
(o) 18
(b) 24
(c)22
@) 2L

(c) o
49.

b,u

b,,,

is equal to

(a) p(X,Y
1s,t lp (x, y)12

(b) cov k, y)
(d) None of these

,)

(6) -1
(d) none of these

|
13

mode)

r, then value of.r is

(b) 2

{d)

55. S.D. of n observation n,, a2t e^,........ an is o, then


If S.D. of'the observations tro,, l.{zr, ),o.,,..... tro,, is
(o) to
(6) -io
(c) ll.lo
(d) o

57.

is equal to

(6)

(c)

(d) none of thesc

;.)

If two lines of regressio n are Y=3x-5and


Y = 2x - 4, then p(X, Y) is equal to
(6)

",
58.

pL

(o)

,, il;6

is

equal to
(b) stamdard deviation
(d) none of these

(a)

If

(o) M.D

56. If median - (mode + 2 mean) p, then

+ o2

If pt is mean of distribution, thenlf,{1,-p)

r")

IS
D

54. If mean = (3 median

i+I

46. If each observation of raw data whose variance is


o2, is increased by 1", then variance ofthe new set
(a) &

0
(c) 1

(d) none of these

(6)

(o)

(6) A=0

h)i

- F +10

cx

53. Coeffrcient of correlation betwecn two variates X


and Y is

M. If P (A) = 0, then
(a) A=O
(c) A=.o

b,.',

8r-10y+66=0ando"=3

12. If A and B are mutually exclusive and


p (A,._, B) = p (A) + p (B), then

43.

is

(td) nonc of these

51. Rcgression equation

6:9

(o) 19:6

cov (X, Y) = 0, thep

negative?

l;

II

t1o

(d) none of thesc

If two lines regression are 3x - y - 5 = 0 and

2x-y-4=0,then r

(n) 1 and
(c) 2 and

-2
-1

and t arerespectively
(6) -1 and 2
@) -2and-1

5.19

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

59.

If

regressiolt equation ofY on X is Y = Lt + 4 and

that ofX on Ybc 4x =Y

0<4I<1
(c) 0<)'<4
(o)

(b)

5, then

0<r<1

(d) nonc of these

(q) xy =

60. If cov (X.Y) = 0. then two lines of the rcgrcssion are


(b) concident
(o) parallel
(c) at right angles (d) none of these
61. Iftwo litres ofregression are atright angles, then
p (X, Yt is eqiral to
(6) -1
(cr) 1
(d) 0
(c) 1 or -1
62. If in a rcgression analysis problem,
b,,, = 0.4, then P(r, Y) is
(a) o'6
(c) 0

6,,. =

-0'9 ancl

(b) -0'6
(d) none of thcse

63. It b,,, and b.,. bc the two rcgression coeffrcients,


then coef'flcient of correlation p is given by
(a)

F-.-Vb..ub.".,

65.

(d) none of thesc

(b) 50
(d) nonc of these

(a) 55
(c) 10
69.

If p>0andrn =

-t-,then

(b)

are x + 2y = 7 and
2x + y = 7, lhetr regression equation ofY artd Xis

If two lines of rcgression

(6)r+2Y='i

@)2r+y=7
(c)r+2y=0'

@)2x+Y=0
X and Y are contlocttrd by the

r, y is equal to

15

t4

72

(d)

(6)

(c) -1

(d)1

that i -5,y=10o?=+of;=9and
(b)

^J

(c) g

deviation for two variables X and Y


are 3 and 4 respectively and thejr covariance is 8,
then corrclation coefficient between them is

3.12

\") ETz

(c) ^
2

(ils

66. Mean deviation of the data


a, a + d,a +2d,...a + 2nd from the mean is equal to

(b)n(n +I\d
2n

+L'-

(d) none of these

(d) none of these

gn

(b) ------

p (u, u) is eaual to

73. N{ean of the numbers 0, 1,2,3,......n rvith


ncrr....,..r'tcn ia
respective weight'Co,'C'

b) :,z+1

-a

72. If X and Y are two independent variables such

(o) 0

It standard

@)t

(a) ;
o

ifu--3x + 4y,u - 3*-y,then

m=P

(d.) none of these

(c) m<P

70.

b.,,. + b,...

(b)

(a) m>p

ct

64. Given ', n = 10, by = 4 )j = 3, )-.t' = 8, b" =


and Iry = 3, then coeffrcient ofcorrelation is

-4

{ =r

xy

68. 25o/o of the items of dat,a are lcss than 35 and25%


of the items are more than 75' Q'D of thc data is

(d) none of these

lc)

{+

_t

(b) _,

relation ar + by * c = 0 where a6 < 0. then

k) p=(-s*,,6r,)J-u*u*

(a)

(c)

o,b_

a2

71. TWo variables

..
F-,
lb) p= -{oy*o.",

67. If two variables X and Yhave a pcrfect correlation


(direct or indirect), then they may bc colrnccted
by a relation ofthe typc

(6)

ZtL+L

n*L

(d) none of these

Common Data Q. 74-76


Box A contains three balls with colours red, green
and blue and Box B contains a balls with colours
red, yellow, blue, white and brown. A box is chosen
and a ball is picked.
74. The probability that the ball mav be brown is
(dl

-10
(?\

8
-15

(b)

13
30

(d) none of these

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

5.20

lD.

The probability that the ball may be green or


blue is

(') toI

/A\

(c)

-30

76. The probability that the ball may be green or


blue is red or blue is

(c)

tor

and

30

(d) none of these

P(A,

Pf At) =

B'

Arl =
l

(A, n
1

(b)

\L/ 2'2

I2

-.
2'322
(d) ;,
;
t).)

78. Ar and A, are independent


(o) True
(b) False
(d) Can not be said
(c) Uncertain

Consider an ordinary six faced die.

79. The chances of throwine four is

(r/)

(Dl ;
.l

(ds

\c) ;e)

d^

chanccs of throwing an even number is

I
@),
,'1
(c,
6

57

6I

83. The chance that three belons to the same clerss is

(o)
(c)

84
5

tt

to) _
6b
(d) none of thcsc

Common Data Q.84-85


Ttvo cards are drawn in succession from a pack of
84. The chance when frrst card is rcplaced, is
1

169

-2

tcl u*

(h\

J169

(n\
'"'

-4
169

85. The chance when first card is not replaced, is

(O)

'"' 669
trt _ 2_4
663

.-.

/L\

'"'
(dl

663

^_
ob.t

Common Data Q.86-87


'n'Ietters are placed-at random in n con-ectly addressed
86. The probabilities that, at lcast onc lcttel goes to
the correct envelooe is

(a)L-p

(Dl

\a) 2

(b)

tat ;
d

Common Data Q.81-83


A committee consists of 9 students two of which are
fronr lstyear, three from 2nd year and four from 3rd
y'car. Three studcnts are to be removed at random.
81. The chance that three students belong to different
classes, is
Io.)

d/

54

tbt *
dl)

envelopes.

Common Data Q. 79-80

80. The

84

56

ta)

i.

11

) -:--

52
cards. First cards should be a king and the second a qucen

77. P(Ar) and P(Ar) respectively are

2l
(^\
\u/ -

ld.

13

Common Data Q. 77-78


Given :

DD

13

(d) none of these

{o)

82. The chance that two bel<lng to the same class and
third to the different class. is

1
,

n!

\c)

-n

(cl) none of thesc

87. The probabilities that all lettcrs go to thc correct


envelope is

@) r-P

\c) n

(6)

;n:

(d) none of these

Common Data Q.88-89


Box t has 10 light bulbs of which 3 are defective. Box II
has 6 light bulbs which 2 are defective; Box III has 8
light bulbs of which 5 are defective. A box is chosen at
random and a bulb is drawn at random.
88. What is the probability that the bulb drarvn is
defective?
720

302

\b) n

320

i20

,+

32

72

-720

302

ic/ =
I

\d)

(c)

,^E"tt

PROBABILTTY & STATISTICS

89. What is the probability that the defective bulb was


from box I ?
720

(ct\
'

(h)

-320
32

tct-

720

d)-

96. Consider two events Er and


probability of'E,, P.(Er) =

302

-720
72
302

90. Four fair coins are tossed simultaneously' The


probabilitv that at lcast one head and one tail turn

probability of

E'

I
-16
7

(d\ 15
-16

k): 6

91. How many four digit EVEN numbers have all


4 digits distinct ?
(bt 2296
(a) 2240
@) 4536
k) 2620
92. Seven (distinct) car accidents occurred in a week'
What is thc probability that they all occurred on
the same day ?
1

(c)

(b\

{a\ *
I
I

nG
I

2'"

.,."[Et)
\clt _r lprJ

(6)

@)

12

(b)

(c) ;
6

\u/2

44

(n\

'*' -52X -52


43
r'n)
\L/ s2
-x-

o)

P,(Er) = P,(Ez)
P,.(E, u Er) = 1

(r'l

I
2

(b)

d)t

51

16
n

@i27

and Eo are indePendent

The value of P, tEr), the probability of event Er is


(cr) 0

(6)

43
52
-x-

52

44
'*' -52x -51

(.:l\

that a number selected at random


between 100 and 999 (both inclusive) will not
contain the digit 7 is

E.

0.25

10O. The probability

E, and E, are events in a probability space satisfying


the following constraints

o
o
o

(d) 0.4
(c) 0.35
and bottom cards of a
top
99. The probability that
randomly shuffled deck are both aces is

;D

(b)

(o) 0.3

outcomes is
1

probability that it will rain either today or.


tomorrow is 0.7. What is the probability that it
will rain todav and tomorrow ?

A dic is rollecl three times. The probability that


exactly one ODD number turns up among the three
(a) ;
(]

98. The probability that it will rain today is 0'5' The


probability that it will rain tomorrow is 0'6' The

The nrinimum number of cards to be dcalt from an

@)3
(c) 9

is

97. TWo girls have picked 10 Roses, 15 Sunflowers


and 14 Daffodils. What is the number of ways
thev can divide the flowers amongst themselves ?
(b) 2100
(a) 1638
(d) None of these
k) 2640

27

arbitrarily shuflled deck of'52 cards to guarantee


that three cards are frr-rm same suit is

, u.td

(b) Events Er and E, and E" are independent


(c) Events Er and E, are not independent

(d)

(a) P, (E, or Erl

b): 6

|,

probability of Er and E2, P, (Er and Er) = S '


Which of the following statement(s) is/are TRU'

up rs
Inl

P.(Er.1

E, such th'

10f.

If

(D)

re\'
[loJ

@*18

20 per cent managers are technocrats, the

probability that a random committee of


managers consists of exactly 2 technocrats is
(b) o.4ooo
(o.) 0.2048

(c) 0.4096

(d) 0.942r

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

5.22

102. The probability that two frineds share the same

birth-month is

\a)
(t'l

\b) t2

6
1

t44

td)

replaced?

'*'

24

that

(c) 0.7

(d) o.e

tu);16
(c)

liquid was
observed in a continuous chemical process
plant
Flow rate (litres/sec) Frequency
5

35
17

12
10

Mcan flow rate of the liquid is


(o) 8.00 litres/sec (6) 8.06 litres/sec
(c) 8.16 litres/sec @) 8.26 litres/sec

Il2.

'"' -2
a

.J

(CL)
.A

In a frequencey distribution, mid value of a class


is 15 and class interval is 4. The lower limit of
the class is

14
G) 12
lll.

at random with

(h)

:d

(o)

106. Thc following data about the flow of

7.5to7.7
i.7 to 7.9
7.9 to 8.1
8.1 to 8.3
8.3 to 8.5
8.5 to 8.7

109. A fair coin is tossed three times in succession. If


the frrst toss poduces a head, then the probability
of getting exactly two heads in thlee tosscs is

ll0.

(b) r/5
(d) 2t9

221

replacement. The probability that none of thc two


screws is defective will be
(b) 50ck
@) 1007o
(d) None of these
(c) 497o

lO5. Abox contains 5 black and 5 red balls. Tlvo balls


are randomly picked one after another from the
box, without replacement. The probability for both
balls being red is

(a) 1/90
(c) 19190

(/'l\

Two screws are drawn

call is distributed exponentially with mean 3


minutes. The probability that an awival does not
have to wait before service is
(b) 0.5

_
5Z

108. Abox contains 10 screws, 3 of which are defective.

ofY

lO4. Arrivals at a telophone booth are considered to


be Poisson, with an average time of 10 minutes
between successive arrivals. The length of a phone

169
-

(b) a value of X may be used to estimate a value


(c) values of X exactly determine values of Y
(d) there is no causal relationship between Y and
X

26

(b)

(nl

there is a causal relationship between


YandX

(o) 0.3

(d\

fO3. A regression moodel is used to express a variable


Y as a function of another variable X' This implies

(a)

10?. From a pack ofregular playing cards, tu'o cards


are drawn at random. What is the probability that
both cards will be Kings, if the frrst card is NOT

(b)

13

(d\

L0

Folloiving marks were obtained by the students


in a test :
81,72,90, 90, 86, 85, 92, 70, 71, 83, 89, 95, 85,
79,62. Rangc of the marks is
@)e

(b)

(c) 27

(d) 33

17

Standard deviation for7,9,11.


ra.) 2.4

ft)

2.7

6)

1,11,

15 is

2.5

@) 2.8

113. If probabilities that A and B will clie rvith ina year


are p and q respectively, then probability that
only one of them will be alive at thc end of the
year is
@)

Prl

(b't p1t-

k)

q(7- p)

(d) p+7-2pt7

q1

5.23

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

1-l4. In a binomial distribution, mean is 4 and variance


is 3. Then, its mode is

116. Shen correlation coefficient | =*1 , Lhen two


regcssion lines

(a) 5

(b) 6

(d

(c) 4

(d) none of these

(b) coincide

115. Ifsum and product ofthe mean and variancc ofa


binomial distribution are24 and 18 respectively',
thcn distriution is

t1 t\'

^, lr. ,)

6)

., (;.;)"

kt)

(t

k)

are perpendicular to each othct'

are

parallel to each other

(d) do not exist

lL7. If1=Q,then

3\'o

[;.aj

(o) there is a perfec[ corrclation between :r and y

(:.!r)"

(c) there is a positive correlation bctween

x and y

(cl) there is a negative correlation between

r andy

(U

x andy

are not correlated

ANSWERS
10. (o)

1. (6)

2. (c)

3. (b)

4. (c)

5. (c)

6. (c)

7.ft)

8. (c)

9. (o)

r1. (o)

12. (a)

13. (o)

14. (b)

r5. (a)

16. (o)

17. (a)

18. (6)

19. (b)

20.

30. (a)

ft)

2r. (b)

22. @)

23.

(.q,)

24. (a)

25. (b)

26.6)

27. (d)

28. @)

29. (u)

31. (c)

32. (b)

33. (d)

34. (c)

35. (c)

36. (d)

37. (a)

38. (o)

39. (o)

4O. (c)

4r.

@)

42. (a)

43. (a)

44. (a)

45.ft)

46. (a)

47. (c)

48. (c)

49.

k)

50. (d)

51. (b)
61. (d)

52. (c)

53. (6)

54. (c)

aa. (c/

56. (b)

t. \a)

58. (o)

59. (c)

60. (c)

62. (d)

63. (c)

64. (a)

65. (o)

66. (o)

67. (c)

68. (b)

69. (o)

70. (b)

71. @)

72. (a)

73. (c)

74. (a)

75.@)

76. (c)

77. (b)

78. (a)

7e.

81. (b)

82. (a)

83. (o)

84. (a.)

85. (d)

86. (o)

87. (b)

88. (b)

8e. (d)

90. (c)

el.

(b)

92. (b)

93. (c)

94. (c)

e5. @)

96. (c)

97. (c)

99. (c)

100. (d)

101. (o)
1r1. (d)

102. (b)
rr2. (d)

103. (b)
113. (d)

LO4. (a)

105. (d)

106. (c)

ro7. (d)

98. (d)
108. (d)

(d)

110. (b)

rr4. k)

rr5. (d)

116. (b)

rr7.

(b)

LOe.

k)

80.

(cr)

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

5.24

EXPLANATIONS
9.

Since odds are 8 to 3 against A

^\)
P(A) = -:- ;
ll

.'.
and

P(B) =

P(A) + P(B) + P(C) =

.'.

P(C)=

I 3 2
I ll 7

:
7

Hence, A and

77

two extra days. These two days can be


(i) Monday, Thesday

Let E. be the event that a baII is drawn from


first bag, E" the event that a ball is drawn
from second bag and E the event a black ball
is chosen, therefore
P(E) = P(E
2

o
11.

(e\

(ii) T\r.esday, Wednesday,


(iil)

IE'

3 24

I
=

ll

(uii) Sunday, Monday

_L__t)t

Number of ways in which 8 balls can be drawn


out of 15 is tsCr.
Number of ways of drawing 2 r:ed balls is sC,
and corresponding to each ofthese 5C, ways
of drawing a red ball, there are r0C. ways of
drawing 6 black balls.

Wednesday, Thursday

(iu) Thursday, Friday


(u) Friday, Saturday
(ul) Saturday, Sunday

(n\

)Pl-al--P(8")Pl-:-l
-'(8,/

3 44
-f-.7 67

B are independent.

14. A leap year consists of366 days, so that there


are 52 full weeks (and hence 52 Sundays) and

34

Hence odds against C are 43 to 34.


10.

P(Ane) = P(A)-P(AnB)
= P(A) - P(A) P(B)
= P(A) (l - P(B)) : P(A) P(B)

13.

Of these 7 cases, the last two are favourable

Required probability = 1.

P(AnBnC) PrAnBnC)

rf rrd

15.

P(C)

P(AnBnC)+P(AnBnC)

Hence total number of ways in which 2 red


and 6 black balls can be drawn = 5C^ x roC-.
Required

probability

P(C)

P(AnBnC)vP(Ar-,BnC)l
P(C)

tu

c,

429

12. A can draw a ticket in

.'.

= 3 ways.

Probability of A's success =

Again B can draw a ticket in

eC,

i.

9.8.7
g .2 .l

= g4way.
Number of rvays in which B gets all blanks

6.5.4
=zo.
3.2.r
Number of ways of getting a prize

P(AnB) =

A's probability of success


of success

32L =7:16

9+ =16

84

2r
: B's probability

'l

\.c/

chosen.

Probability of not choosing "3" is


chance)

fr

(in

one

Probability of not choosing 3 in all the three


chances

999
l0 10

"=

Thus, probability of B's success =

.rA
rt-l

s = f0, 1,2, ...,91


Suppose we want a particular integer "3" to be

6c^

=84-20=64

116

18.

AnB=0

16.

Number of cases in which A can get a prizc


is clearly 1.

.'.

P(AnC) _
P(C)

L40
3C,

P(C)

=-X

l0

Hence probability of choosing


ofthe three chances
27 973

=1- 1000-

19. The five digits

it in at least one

1000

can be arranged in 5! ways, out

will begin with zero.


.'. Total number of 5-frgure numbers formed

of which 4!

=5!-4!=96.

5.25

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

Those nrtmbers forntcd u'ill be divisible by 4


which will l-rave t',vo extrcme right digits

22.

P(Ar)

.,

r.c , numbet's ending in 04. 12, 20.24,32,40.

Itumbers ending in 04 = 3! = 6,

numbcrs ending in
numbers erlding in 20 = 3l = 6,
numJrers ending in 24 = 3t, - 2t = 4.
ttunbers ending in 32 = 31, -2t = 4,
atrdrturnbers ending in '40 = 3l = 6.
INumbe rs having 12,24,32 in thc extreme tight
arc (3! - 2!), since thc numbers har'ing zero on
the cxtrernc lc{t are to excludcd.l
.'. Total nunrber of favourablc ways
= 6 + 4 + 6 + 4 + 4 + ti = 30
12 = 3t

in 1'C., ways which


is thc total nrtmbe r of'outcomcs.
Two rvhite balls out of 8 can be drawn in 'C,,

T\'o balls out

14 catr be drawn

Probability of drnwing

P(A.

P (A) > P(B) sincc

.'.

Probability of drawing 2 balls of the same


colortr (eitlrcr both white ol both red)

28 15 43
=91*91=91

27. Probability

.4

Cal^OS

-52

of drar.r'ing an ace from a deck of 52


'

(An Ct irnciAn

C)

Cl are disjoint.

P(C) =0

24.

C=0
P(AnIlnC) =P(AnBnQ)
=P(t|)=0
P(A)xPtBl,rP(C) =0 ...sinceP(C)=0
P(AnBr-rC; =P(A)-P(B)-P(C)
..

l{encc A, B. C are inclependent.

ll
P(lI) = 1,P(Tr = 1

25.

ttc, l-5
= ,ac" = s,

C) >P(Bn C)

P(AnC)+P(Ar', g) >P(BnC)+P(Bn

= -2!
9l

Probability of'drawing 2 red balls

(c)

Adding

Similarl.y 2 rcd balls out of 6 can be clrawn in

'.

r,/r
'', - plR,^'-\
'\'/^/
\"'^FI
> -----:=ir,((')
P((')
-

allo

.c,

''C,, u'a1's

(c)

P(An0) >P(BnC)

white balls

= to c,

l(n,,:l,'r.)

l'}(AnC) P(tloC)

23.

ways.

'.

tn,) l(A$'^U

=P(A.re-rrz\l
=1-P(A, r,-,11. t-,A,)

2t = 4,

Hetrce; rcquiredProbabilitY= +96 = 11


16
20.

P(A,

- p /a . P(A
)
-P(ArnA,nA,)

divisible b.t'4,

Now,

P(r\rrA,). P(A,,/A, n.\,,)

Lct A bc tlre evcnt of getting 5 r:r 6.

.'.

.'.

(A)=

and B bt' the evcnt of gctting

q a A.
1
a,
Lt a, 'J,
z

P(B)=

-t

ordcr to get a 'Hctrcl' belirrc "5 or 6", the


followng cvents havc ttl ()ccul':
H, TI]H, TBTBFI, TBTBTBII. ....
Ir.r

Similtrrly the probtrbility ot'drawing a card of

p=

_13
'52 = -

SPaOL'S

I I 2 | rt)' I tl\'

r*J. r "r*[iJ :.[l,l

I
z

probability of'rlrawing an ace of spades


'52 =

Since two events (i.e. a card bcing an ace and a


cerrd being o{'spades) are ntlt mutually cxclusive,

thereftrre

Probability ofdrarving alt ace or a spade

1)-ll-+

=-+=-\2

52 .s2

=-2 =3
rl4

_l

26. Nurnber of ways differcnt numbcrs


Total number of'ways of occurrencc

.'.
l.l

can occur

on six dice = 6l

Required

65

6: 5!
probability,
--'---'--rr-5rr-64 P = ^s - -

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

5.26

p(A) =

27.

and

P(B/A)

32. The sum 6 can be obtained as follorvs

(1,5), (2,4), (3,3), (4,2),(5,1), i e' in 5 ways'

n!1?l)
=- P(A)
II

e(nne)

P(B)

Probability ofA's throwing 6 with 2 dicc= jO

PtAnB) = t.PtA/B)=

--'

jl

.'.

Probability ofA's not throwing 6

Similarly, probability of B's throwiug

P(B)=2

(o) IfAis

a sutrevent ofB,

7=

= i6

--6

'

i'e'

:l
ProbabilitY of B's not throwing ? + o

Ac

NowA can win, if he throws


frfth, seventh etc' throws.
.'. Chance ofA's winning

nB=A

B, then A

.'. P (A n B) should be equai to P (A)' This is false'

in thc first, thircl'

tbr
'4
(c)

P(A/B) =

is false.

11
88

P(An B) -P(A)-P(An")=;
1

n(nne) s
.'. P(A/ll)=-+=t=;
p(u) t-

1-(31/ 36) x(5 / 6)

.. P(A/B)+P(A/e,=
Hence given statement

iis false' =:

P (At-,

(qt

28. Probability of drawing a white ball from box B


will depend on whether transferred ball is black
or white.
Ifa black ball is transferred, then its probability

Bt>

(Al

ft) AaBcB
P(An B)
.'.
Also P(AnB)

zD
1

-1

1=I

There are now 5 white and 8 black balls in the

(c)

An B c

= ,,

.'.

Hencc probability of drawing a white ball from


urn B, if the transferred ball is black

!6 * a13= 1q

ft

B
3

P(An ll)<P(B)

AIso
.'.

An
P(An

= (o., o)

=1-P(AuIlt
>1-{P(A)+P(B)

39

,51

ft
:
= 1- j -F:f
6J = E

Similarly, probability of drawing a white bail


from urn B, if transferred ball is white

262
=;"13=13
l0 2 16
.'. Requiredprobability = , * 13 = 39'

-.
.'.

(B)

>1

t" 6'

from boxB

P(A) =

34. Let the eveut of drawilrg a faulty item from

any of the machines bc A, and the cvent that


an item drau'n at random was produced by /t/,
be B . To P (B,lAl Proceed as {bllorvs
:

0
0

P(Ar-rB)=P(Q)=0

[4

M,

M,

M,

Remarks

P (B.)

0.25

030

045

'sum=1

P (A/8,)

0.05

004

0.03

P (8,)P (A/8,

0.0125

0.012

A=0

ArB

61

box B. Then probability of drawing white ball

30

(Av B)=A

33.

*i

36x6
61

5
-36

P (B,iA)

0.0125 0.0125
0.038
0.038

0.0135 ;rrnt = 0.ljt


0.0r

iJ5

0.0:lu

Ry Baye's

lheorem

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

5.27

The highest output being from


probability =

35.

t= o^t"T

0.038

M,

required

38.

(o) P((AuB) n C) = P((AnC) u(B nC))


=P

= o. 355.

(b)

36.

B
P(B)

=P(AnB)+P(R nB)as

A n B are mutually exclusive.


P(n nB) =P(B)-P(AnB).
p(AuB) =plAu(A nB)l
=p(A)+p(A nB)
=P(A)+P(B)-P(AnB)

(c)

if

P(AnE)

P(BnE)

P(E)

P(E)

(A)

(,)

(n\

if e len[Jn,
i=r
\

if P U

|=

JE

,=j

c)

(,
\
PIU(BnE)l
\i=r

.)

t
'''

.p(BnC) P(AnBnC)
P(C)

P(C)

fal P (A., nlc)+

(An

n B/C)

P (A

_ P(AnBnC) * P(AnBnC)

P(c)

P(c)

_ P(AnBnC)+P(AnBnC)
P(C)

_ P(AnBnC)u(AnBnC)
P(C)

ThisistruesinceP(AnE,)= P (B n E) for
each i.

B/C)

P(E)=p y

=1-p(E, t-,E,-...rq,)
=1-p(E, nE,^....,q,)
= 1-Pt n, i P (E.t ...et n, t

= 1 _ (1 _ p) (t _p) ... (, _ o)
= 1_ (1_p),,
(at
Hence P
least one man meets rvith an
accidcnt/a person is chosen) =

N. Expectation of X = E(X)

(NC)

IT

(1

-(I-p)").

= avel-age = mean

\-

= /Pr

xt

L-I

Hence A and B are independent.

=1i*
na

P(C)

(A.- ll
=P(A)-P(AnB)
=P(A)-P(A)P(B)
= P (A) (1 -P (B)) = P(A) P ( B )

P (at least one man meet with an accident)


= P (Er u E, r'-' ... v E,,)

P(AnC)
=P

p(BnE,)

accident. Then

P(C)

B/C) = P (A/C) + P (B/C)

P(AnE.)t'

39. Let E, be the event of a person to get into an

p(A n c)

P(C)

as P (B/A) < 1.

-P(enCnBnC)
and P((AuB)nC) =P(AnC)+P(BnC)
-P(AnBnC)

icr P

lB.rt
tYt
\

(AnE,)=

(Au B) = P (A) + P (B) -P (AnB)


.'. P((An C) u(B nC)) = P(AnC) + P(B nC)

P((a u B) n

n B))

P(AnE)= P(BnE)

37. (o) P

P (A

P(A,ts) =P(A)P(B/A)
<P

P (A

P (A) P (B) P (C)

P(A/E)=P(BlE)

=(AnB)u(A nB)

A n B and

=
(b)

C)

=P(C)P(AvB)

lsl :l=16.

(a)

n C)-P (An B n

= P (C) (P (A) + P (B)

HHTT' ... , TTTTI

Clearly,

C) + P (B

= P (A) P (C) + P (B) P (C)

S = {HHHH, HHHT, HHTH,

Sample space,

(An

where p, denote probability of occurrence

ofr

Letq=1-p.
Then probabilities of succcss
trials are
P, QP, q2P, -....

in lst. 2nd, 3rd

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

5.28

.' E(n -

(o)

-p+(1) . qp+\2). q,p+...

= qp (L + 2q +

8r-10y+66=0
.l
866
J,i
y - _x
+ _ = -I+ -"1010
55

3q'+ ...+ nq " *t + ...)

qp
= (l-q)z _qp_q p
p2

Hence

6u.

4t. Ratio ofAand B = 60 x 80 + 40 x 70 : 60 x 20


+40x30
= 76:24
(A/Au B)

9xl

cov(X, Y)

.J

P(An(AuR))

52.S4ren each ibem is rlivicled

P(A u B)

53. Sirrce,

P(A)+P(B)=1
Hence

P(AuB)-P(AnB)=1=P(S)
AUB =SonlyifAnB=g

i.e.

A=BonlyifAnB=0

x*

54.

P(A)=0

\s/

a, i.c. ib becomcs

Newmean= -t - ,, = "t-loo
0-cI

P(A)=i-P(B)

pf4l

tr-y

a
When each item is increased bv 10. mean also
increased by 10.

P(A)=P(B)

M.

of

P(A)
= P(AuB)= P(A)P(A)
+ P(B)
43.

-5

cov(X,Y)

=19:6
P

limit is

51. Given regression

= 6 for all tlre pairs of observations,

b"u=br.r=-1

p(X,Y) =-1
Mode =SMndian-2Mean
Nlean =

=o
55. Standard

n(A)'=0

1t"o,or,z2
1'
-ti3

Median

1onoo"

Mode)

Deviation ofnew data

n(S)

tz(A)=0

A=0
4.5.

r; E':-l;j
=i)".
V,

(,,,:

When each item is increased by i", the mean is


also increased by )..

Mode =3Median-2Mean
SMcdian =Mode+2Mean

56.

46.When each item is increased by ).; the S.D. is


multiplied bV I f I and variance is multiplied by

12

Median =
+ 2 N{can)
5(Mode

47.18=3Median-2x24

*-2fi0, - r) = f, ! i - Y1 Ef, = Lf, t, -

49.

Lf,Y, = o

b,,b*;=+ttrt
r

covff'Y)

t2

|
[' o'o,

= to x, Yl,

M=:

=
57.

If we take y = 3x - 5 as regression equation ofY


on X and Y = 2x - 4 as that ofX on Y, then

brr=3b"^,=

brrbr, =
is not possible],which

50.Cov (X, Y), b.r b., and p(X, Y) all are either
positive, or 0 or negative simultaneously.

Hence, equation

= 3x

- S, i.e.r = |, . I

the regression equation ofX on Y


and equation, Y = 2x - 4 is that Y on X.

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS


1

b),, -- 2 and br,

Then

b,rbr, =

=5

M.

P(X,Y

z
o

.J

{o(X,Y)}z = 5

E
o(XY) = 1-

58. Solving equations

3r-v -5=0

65.

and2,l

-Y-4=O,

r-1andy=-2.

we get

I
59. Here 6r-. = L a.td b', =
Since 0

p(X,Y)
'

'

ztl+

),+0.

60.

have

Cov (X,

0 < l' < 4'

Y) = 0
br, =brn-=O

two lines of regression are at right angles


only when

. (r )

62.Given : b^,, = - 0.9 is negative and b', = 0'4 is


positive *ftlcft is not possible as bn' and b* are
of same sign. Hence given data is
"l*uy.
inconsistent.
brr bt, =
p=
b..,,

n(n+1)ldl

*l

(direct or indirect), ttren there is a linear


relationship between the two variables'

and

brt =-bt!
But both bn, and b* are of same sign, therefore
we must have
br, = br, __ o
P(X,Y) = 0

f^

rzl

Iftwo variables X and Y are in perfect correl ation

:1

But b... and

+ 2 +...+

ldlx2ll + 2 + 3 +...+ nl
l)ldl

M.D. (about mean) = --%,


67.

1'

68.Given : lower quartile, Qr = 35

[,*,J=_t

.-

= n(n +

61. The

ffl.We know

2tt+l

ila+@+(a+2ndt)l

So, tw<t lines of regression ate y - y = 0 and


x - i = 0, which are al right angles'

u_

Zn+t--

= )tt"+(t-l)dl -la+ ndll


i=1
= la-a-ndl+lo' + d-a (rz-n'dl+"'
+ lu + nd, -a -nrJl + lo + +'1) d -a - rull
+...+lc +2nd-o-ndl
(rz
(n
+
- 2) +"'+ 1 + 0
= ld,lln + -1)

b"n + 0,

Hence, we must

"+ (o + 2nd)

=a+nd'

0<).<4

a + (a + d) + @ + 2d) +"

Sum of numerical deviations from the mean

f1\
o<r[7J <t

brt+

66.Mean,V=-

bnrb*n < 1, therefore we must have

A*s

- cov(X'Y)
3x4
o"ou = -J-

Quartile d".ri.tior, =

9*

=Ef

=zo

69. Since p > 0, therefore bn* and br" are also positive

r:-----b..- +b
Hence "Jr _ "r.r, > Jby., b..J

=
-

2
b.,- +

b"^,> G
r/p=

bur+b
tJ >o
-

P2

m>P

+ 2y = 7 is taken as regressron
equation of Y on X, then we write it as

70.If frrst time

!\Er' 4,

p and cov (X, Y) are all of the

same srgn

p = (sgn brr)

upper quartile Qs = 75

by bo

I7

\]=--X+'22
h
-yx =-l

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

s.30

Also tbc second equation (which will be regression


equation X on Y) can be u'ritten as

t7
)c = - - v + 2"2
,1 =o.y
2

b ]-i

h+=(-t)il)
4
i2t(21 =1=1

x+2Y =f
X and Y connected by linear relationship,
therefore they are in perfect correlatiott.

71. Since

/ .r\' c
l, OJt-a

shows that when

:=

7:!.Occurrence of evcnt of ch<losirtg a ball occurs


only after a box is choscn. Hence to gct the
probability of choosing a rt'd hall in box B. rve
must consider box B as sirttrple spacc.
hox A after
P(brown) = P(brown ir
choosing A) + I' (trrown in box B
after choosing'B)

i =3r+4y andu =3i-t


Lt-i =3@-Jc)+4$t-Y1
u-6 =3(x-r)+a0-y)
cov(u,r) = 12(u- u)2(u- u I

76.

y) )

\n)

-s

+ 9 cov. (r, y)

-0
lsince X, Y trre independent,

therefore cor'(X, Y) = 0l
cov(tl, rr)
L') = -o ,., = 0

r)

| _-

r)

(r

(t

2)l+t- x-l)
l-x- 3)
--\.2
\2 5)
1 I
13
=_*-=31030

(t 2) (t
lJ*:].l;"l]
-/

2\

Ptn)=I
')= i
- P(Ar t + P(A,t - P(A,nAr)
-t
= '+P(A.t ]
623

P(A,uAr)

p(Ar)

t
P(ArnAr)= ,- uttd I,(,r,)ylr(A,) -1
3

78.

=9x4-4x9+9(0)
o'..'

4<r,,2

^( ztx- rXy + Jl-

= 1*1=
3 5 15

=P(A1

\n/\n)

prredorblue)=

t_
=::{9(.r
-r)2-40-y)2
n
+ek_i )Cy_ t))
-o\
/>rr-ti2) (zw-Yr
r-4r
=el-

73. Required mean

77.

p(u.,

(t o)+l
-

-(2":/'[zlt s/

increases,

y also incrcascs; so X and Y are in perfect direct


correlation
p(X,10 = 1.
+
7Z.Here,

(..' C, + 2oo + 3c" +... nCn- n2,-r1

75.P (green or blue)

;<0.
b

"'

ob < 0
a

Y=

2"

Hence regression equation of Y on X is

Al-qo

fl2"-1

P(A,nAr) = P(Ar) r P(A,,)


Hence A, and A,

arc independent.

79.There are six possible ways in rvlrich the die


can fall and of these therc is onll' onc way of

throwing 4.

Required.h^.,"" =

Io

80.There are six possible ways in which the die can


fall. Of these there are only 3 r,r,avs of getting 2.

4or6.
Rcquiredchance=
'62

Irl = -'

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS


5.31

81,

Number of ways of choosing 3 students out 9


=eC", i.e.84
A student can be removed from 1st year students
in 2 ways, from 2nd year in B ways and from Brd
year in 4 ways, so that the total number of ways
of removing three students, one from each

groupis2x3x4.

2x3x4
nc,

Required chance

86.

242
847
82.Number of ways of removing two from 1st year
students and one from others =tCrrrCt
Number of ways of removing two from ind year
students and one from others = rC, x oCr.
Number of ways of removing 2 from Brd year
students and one from others = rC, nC'
"
Hence total number ofways in which two students
of the same class and third from the others
may be removed
=

85.Probability of drawing a king = I


13'
If card is not replaced, then pack will have
51 cards only so that chance of drawing a
A
.a
queen ts _;,
)l
.'. Probability of drawing both cards

zCrxTC

r+

sCrx

6C, +

=7+18+30

aC

rx

nl'
-t,

The various probabilities are marked on the

branches ofthe tree.


Following the branches

P(D)

= Probability of a defective bulb

13
1215
3103638
I 202
_ _x_
3 240

84

i.e. L way from 81fl ys31

302
720

.'.

If

in which three

(where A is the event of choosing box I)

p(Anp)
P(D)

13

of'dra\mngaKlllg= 'l
-

l3

will again have

cards, so that plobability of drawing a queen is

-x310
302
720

('.' An D = defective from box I

b2

a
l3

The two events beingindependent, the probability


b<-rth

= P (A,/D)

= 84

card is replaced, the pack

of drawing

Probability that defective bulb was from


I

rl?.j;r" .to.,

Required chance

S4.Probability

89.

box

Hence total number of ways


students Outo"*=rnr

P(AnD)=

1,1 =fL

3 10 302
101. Probability of technocrat manaser

20i

cards in succession

lt x

=-13 -13

I
169

(- 1)"
n!

since there is only one way in which all the

83.Three students can be removed from 2nd year

3rdyeargroup in

-............ +

88.We solve the problem using a tree diagram D


;
and N stand fo defective and non-defective cases.

!1.

group in aC' i.e.4ways.

I
a:

663

letters to the correct envelopes.

sC,

group in tC' i.e., 1 way and from


aC.,

+;

5l

=55
Required chance =

tl

Probabil ity,p =

87.

t4
13

'

= 1oo=s=P
Probability of non-technocrat mana ger

804
=E="

1oo

PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

Probability of a random committee of 5 with


exactly 2 technocrats
5c2ll2q3
=
=-t

114. m=
f,

7+9+11+13+15_

:ox4(r)2f+)3
1x2\5/ \5/

- 111'z + le =40

-l

o=\,

102. Probability that frrst friend is born in any month


= I00Vo = 1
Probability that second friend is born in the same
month as that of frrst friend

Et

If

fr

ball is not replaced, then box will have a ball,


so probability of drawing the red ball in next
chance
9

542

"t

109. Probability ofboth cards beingkings

431
=
-52 -51 -227

111. After frrst heads in first toss


Probability of tails in 2nd and 3rd toss

=1.1=
22

=1-1='
44

Il2. Let lower limit be r.


Then,
upperlimit = r+4
z

= rs

;r=13

113. Range = Difference between largest values

= 95-62
=33

= P [(A dies and B is alive)


or (A is alive and B dies)l
= p+q-2pq
np=
116. We have

4vyllnpq=J

a
J

4 = + andp=(1-q)=

tA

Mode is an integer such that

13
4+->x>4-1
44
13 77

Tt,tT

+
+

3.25<x<4.25

x=4

ll7. tn+6'= 24 and nrc2=128


Solving we get

m =76or8.
Ifm=16then
02 =8

Ifm=8then

Probability of exactly two heads

t9l9

Y)

np+p>x>np-q

Hence probability of drawing 2 balls

.'.

ttl' + lr: - t tl' + ltS - ttl'

2.8

= p(7-q)+(1-p)q

107. Probability of drawing a red ball =

10

lrt -

11|'z

115. Requiredprobability

,11
t'r2=E

11

-_f

d': =17

=0.2048

55

O- =
Case

I '. ftp = 16 and np7 = 8

11
P=;,1=;andn=32.
zz

+
Case

P^

OO.

II

;11p

= g v1f, npq = gg

4 = 7, which is not possible.

Hence distribution is

(q+p)"

(r

r\"

\r-,