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Course MBA-Semester-1

STATISTICS FOR

Subject

MANAGEMENT

Subject Code MB0024-Set-1

Case 1

ABC Branch of XYZ Bank has decided to give 10 Lakh of loan each on long term

basis to only two of their customers (accountholders), who are businessmen of

the locality. About 20 businessmen had applied for loan in order to develop their

business further. In order to reject some of the applications (as the fund was

limited), the Bank decided that accountholder who had maintained a minimum

balance of 50000 INR would only be considered for the loan. As a result, 10

applications were automatically rejected as they were not satisfying the

requirement of minimum balance. Now, the 10 applications remained and it was

found that monthly minimum balance in all the cases were more than 50000 INR

for the last 12 months. Their account details of monthly minimum balance are

given below.

hs

A/C A/C A/C A/C A/C A/C A/C A/C A/C A/C

Holde Hold Holder Holde Hold Hold Holde Holde Holde Holde

r1 er 2 3 r4 er 5 er 6 r7 r8 r9 r 10

Jan, 60000 5600 66000 86000 5600 5900 59000 52000 53000 56000

2008 0 0 0

Feb, 70000 7600 74000 96000 7600 9600 78000 73000 98000 76000

2008 0 0 0

Mar, 55000 1100 112000 19000 1100 1200 11500 11200 11300 12000

2008 00 0 00 00 0 0 0 0

Apr, 90000 8900 90000 98000 8900 9700 87000 93000 66000 89000

2008 0 0 0

May, 56000 8800 84000 84000 8800 9800 90000 89000 87000 86000

2008 0 0 0

Jun, 80000 5200 57000 57000 5200 5700 55000 54000 59000 72000

2008 0 0 0

Jul, 82000 5800 96000 66000 5800 5600 86000 55000 98000 98000

2008 0 0 0

Aug, 79000 9500 55000 93000 9500 9800 99000 96000 59000 95000

2008 0 0 0

Sept, 51000 8600 76000 74000 8600 8800 89000 97000 87000 84000

2008 0 0 0

Oct, 95000 9000 95000 99000 9000 9900 95000 99000 95000 90000

2008 0 0 0

Nov, 82000 8200 87000 84000 8200 8800 87000 88000 86000 82000

2008 0 0 0

Dec, 83000 5500 56000 57000 5500 5900 59000 59000 52000 53000

2008 0 0 0

You as an Assistant Branch Manager of the Bank are entrusted the task of

selecting two account holders for sanctioning the loans. How you will select the

two individuals among the 10 applicants to give the loan using appropriate

statistical techniques? Give proper justification for your selection.

Ans.

average balance and more.

Am= ∑x/n

√∑(x-x-)2

η-1

For each a/c holders z = required monthly balance – x-

Standard distribution x √n

4.Convert z variable into probabilities and select two a/c holder with the

highest probability

So by these assumptions and justifications ,we can give loan to the a/c

holders with highest probability. They are

and

ASSIGNMENT

Course MBA-Semester-1

STATISTICS FOR

Subject

MANAGEMENT

Subject Code MB0024-Set-2

1. What do you mean by sample survey? What are the different

sampling methods? Briefly describe them.

Ans .

selection of individual observations intended to yield some knowledge about

a population of concern, especially for the purposes of statistical inference.

etc.) of an observable entity enumerated to distinguish objects or individuals.

Survey weights often need to be applied to the data to adjust for the sample

design. Results from probability theory and statistical theory are employed to

guide practice.

Sampling Methods

Sampling methods are classified as either probability or non

probability. In probability samples, each member of the population has a

known non-zero probability of being selected. Probability methods include

random sampling, systematic sampling, and stratified sampling. In non

probability sampling, members are selected from the population in some

nonrandom manner. These include convenience sampling, judgment

sampling, quota sampling, and snowball sampling. The advantage of

probability sampling is that sampling error can be calculated.

member of the population has an equal and known chance of being selected.

When there are very large populations, it is often difficult or impossible to

identify every member of the population, so the pool of available subjects

becomes biased.

also called an Nth name selection technique. After the required sample size

has been calculated, every Nth record is selected from a list of population

members. As long as the list does not contain any hidden order, this

sampling method is as good as the random sampling method. Its only

advantage over the random sampling technique is simplicity. Systematic

sampling is frequently used to select a specified number of records from a

computer file.

superior to random sampling because it reduces sampling error. A stratum is

a subset of the population that share at least one common characteristic.

Examples of stratums might be males and females, or managers and non-

managers. The researcher first identifies the relevant stratums and their

actual representation in the population. Random sampling is then used to

select a sufficient number of subjects from each stratum. "Sufficient" refers

to a sample size large enough for us to be reasonably confident that the

stratum represents the population. Stratified sampling is often used when

one or more of the stratums in the population have a low incidence relative

to the other stratums.

researcher is interested in getting an inexpensive approximation of the truth.

As the name implies, the sample is selected because they are convenient.

This non probability method is often used during preliminary research efforts

to get a gross estimate of the results, without incurring the cost or time

required to select a random sample.

researcher selects the sample based on judgment. This is usually and

extension of convenience sampling.

sampling. Like stratified sampling, the researcher first identifies the stratums

and their proportions as they are represented in the population. Then

convenience or judgment sampling is used to select the required number of

subjects from each stratum. This differs from stratified sampling, where the

stratums are filled by random sampling.

the desired sample characteristic is rare. It may be extremely difficult or cost

prohibitive to locate respondents in these situations. Snowball sampling relies

on referrals from initial subjects to generate additional subjects. While this

technique can dramatically lower search costs, it comes at the expense of

introducing bias because the technique itself reduces the likelihood that the

sample will represent a good cross section from the population.

understand by Rank Correlation? When we use rank correlation and when

we use Pearsonian Correlation Coefficient? Fit a linear regression line in

the following data –

X 12 15 18 20 27 34 28 48

Y 123 150 158 170 180 184 176 130

Ans.

ρ) indicates the strength and direction of a relationship between two random

variables. The commonest use refers to a linear relationship. In general

statistical usage, correlation or co-relation refers to the departure of two

random variables from independence. In this broad sense there are several

coefficients, measuring the degree of correlation, adapted to the nature of

the data. Correlation refers to the interdependence or co-relationship of

variables

techniques for modeling and analyzing several variables, when the focus is

on the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more

independent variables. More specifically, regression analysis helps us

understand how the typical value of the dependent variable changes when

any one of the independent variables is varied, while the other independent

variables are held fixed. Most commonly, regression analysis estimates the

conditional expectation of the dependent variable given the independent

variables — that is, the average value of the dependent variable when the

independent variables are held fixed. Regression is a way of describing how

one variable, the outcome, is numerically related to predictor variables.

rankings on the same set of items. A rank correlation coefficient

measures the correspondence between two rankings and assesses its

significance. An increasing rank correlation coefficient implies increasing

agreement between rankings. The coefficient is inside the interval [-1,1] and

assumes the value:

• -1 if the disagreement between the two rankings is perfect; one

ranking is the reverse of the other.

• 0 if the rankings are completely independent.

• 1 if the agreement between the two rankings is perfect; the two

rankings are the same.

PMCC, and typically denoted by r is a measure of the correlation (linear

dependence) between two variables X and Y, giving a value between +1 and

−1 inclusive. It is widely used in the sciences as a measure of the strength of

linear dependence between two variables.

The concept behind linear regression is to find the best estimate of the trend

given a noisy sample of data points.

methods of business forecasting? Describe the effectiveness of time-series

analysis as a mode of business forecasting. Describe the method of

moving averages.

Ans.

about some future event. It is no longer reasonable to rely solely on

intuition, or one’s feel for the situation, in projecting sales, inventory needs,

personnel requirements, and other important economic or business variables.

management planning and decision making. Common types of forecasting

include trend analysis, regression analysis, Delphi technique, time series

analysis, correlation, exponential smoothing, and input-output analysis.

Business forecasting is used by:

Accountants - costs, revenues, tax-planning

Personnel Departments - recruitment of new employees

Financial Experts - interest rates

Production Managers - raw materials needs, inventories

Marketing Managers - sales forecasts for promotions

Subjective Methods

Sales Force Composites

Customer Surveys

Jury of Executive Opinions

Delphi Method

Quantitative Methods

Exponential smoothing family

future outcomes. In statistics, signal processing, and many other fields.A

time series is a sequence of data points, measured typically at successive

times, spaced at (often uniform) time intervals. Time series analysis

comprises methods that attempt to understand such time series, often either

to understand the underlying context of the data points (Where did they

come from? What generated them?), or to make forecasts (predictions).

Time series forecasting is the use of a model to forecast future events

based on known past events; to forecast future data points before they are

measured. A standard example in econometrics is the opening price of a

share of stock based on its past performance.

used to distinguish a problem, firstly from more ordinary data analysis

problems (where there is no natural ordering of the context of individual

observations), and secondly from spatial data analysis where there is a

context that observations (often) relate to geographical locations

Moving Averages

mean or running average, is a type of finite impulse response filter used to

analyze a set of data points by creating a series of averages of different

subsets of the full data set. A moving average is not a single number, but it

is a set of numbers, each of which is the average of the corresponding subset

of a larger set of data points. A moving average may also use unequal

weights for each data value in the subset to emphasize particular values in

the subset. This is the least used technique

out short-term fluctuations and highlight longer-term trends or cycles. The

threshold between short-term and long-term depends on the application, and

the parameters of the moving average will be set accordingly. For example, it

is often used in technical analysis of financial data, like stock prices, returns

or trading volumes. It is also used in economics to examine gross domestic

product, employment or other macroeconomic time series. Mathematically, a

moving average is a type of convolution and so it is also similar to the low-

pass filter used in signal processing. When used with non-time series data, a

moving average simply acts as a generic smoothing operation without any

specific connection to time, although typically some kind of ordering is

implied.

observations and then employs that average as the forecast for the next

period. The number of sample observations included in the calculation of the

average is specified at the start of this process. The term MOVING average

means that as a new observation becomes available a new average is

calculated by dropping the oldest observation in order to include the newest

one.

Advantages:

1. Data requirements are small.

2. Better than using a simple arithmetic mean because it can be

adjusted to reflect the observable patterns in the data.

Disadvantages:

1. The past n sample observations must be available.

2. Equal weights are given to all past observations and no weight

is given to observations earlier than period t-n+1.

3. Assumes that the data has a stationary distribution (not always true ).

statistics? What are the different functions of Statistics? What are the

limitations of Statistics?

Ans.

collection, analysis, interpretation or explanation, and presentation of data,

while others consider it to be a branch of mathematics concerned with

collecting and interpreting data. Statisticians improve the quality of data with

the design of experiments and survey sampling. Statistics also provides tools

for prediction and forecasting using data and statistical models. Statistics is

applicable to a wide variety of academic disciplines, including natural and

social sciences, government, and business.

obtaining data and then organizing, summarizing, presenting, analyzing,

interpreting and drawing conclusions based on data. It can also be termed as

“statistics are the numerical statement of facts capable of analysis and

interpretation and the science of statistics is the study of the principles and

the methods applied in collecting, presenting, analysis and interpreting the

numerical data in any field of inquiry.”

Characteristics of Statistics

• Statistics are numerically expressed.

• Statistics are affected to a marked extent by multiplicity of causes.

• Statistics are enumerated or estimated according to a reasonable

standard of accuracy.

• Statistics are collected for a predetermine purpose.

• Statistics are collected in a systemic manner.

• Statistics must be comparable to each other.

Functions of Statistics

description of a phenomenon of nature.

in any field of study.

Statistics helps in presenting complex data in a suitable tabular,

diagrammatic and graphic form for an easy and clear comprehension of the

data.

of a phenomenon through quantitative observations.

their reliability about the population parameters from the sample data.

So single observation is not a statistics, it deals with groups and aggregates

only.

interpretation the data, statistical results might be misleading.

statistical data efficiently.

inferential statistics involves certain errors. We do not know whether an error

has been committed or not.

the various methods for collecting data in a statistical survey.

Ans.

survey must develop a written plan that sets forth a justification, including:

goals and objectives; potential users; the decisions the survey is designed to

inform; key survey estimates; the precision required of the estimates (e.g.,

the size of differences that need to be detected); the tabulations and analytic

results that will inform decisions and other uses; related and previous

surveys; steps taken to prevent unnecessary duplication with other sources

of information; when and how frequently users need the data; and the level

of detail needed in tabulations, confidential micro data , and public-use data

files.

survey system, or implementing a major revision of an ongoing survey.

1. A justification for the survey, including the rationale for the survey,

relationship to prior surveys, survey goals and objectives (including priorities

within these goals and objectives), hypotheses to be tested, and definitions

of key variables. Consultations with potential users to identify their

requirements and expectations are also important at this stage of the

planning process.

2. A review of related studies, surveys, and reports of Federal and non-

Federal sources to ensure that part or all of the survey would not

unnecessarily duplicate available data from an existing source, or could not

be more appropriately obtained by adding questions to existing Federal

statistical surveys.

3. A review of all survey data items, the justification for each item, and how

each item can best be measured (e.g., through questionnaires, tests, or

administrative records). Agencies should assemble reasonable evidence that

these items are valid and can be measured both accurately and reliably, or

develop a plan for testing these items to assess their accuracy and reliability.

5. A plan for pre-testing the survey or survey system, if applicable

6. A plan for quality assurance during each phase of the survey process to

permit monitoring and assessing performance during implementation. The

plan should include contingencies to modify the survey procedures if design

parameters appear unlikely to meet expectations (for example, if low

response rates are likely). The plan should also contain general specifications

for an internal project management system that identifies critical activities

and key milestones of the survey that will be monitored, and the time

relationships among them.

7. A plan for evaluating survey procedures, results, and measurement error

8. An analysis plan that identifies analysis issues, objectives, key variables,

minimum substantively significant effect sizes, and proposed statistical tests.

9. An estimate of resources and target completion dates needed for the

survey cycle.

10. A dissemination plan that identifies target audiences, proposed major

information products, and the timing of their release.

Statistical Data:

A sequence of observation, made on a set of objects included in the

sample drawn from population is known as statistical data.

Data which have been arranged in a systematic order are called raw

data or ungrouped data.

Data presented in the form of frequency distribution is called grouped

data.

Collection of Data:

The first step in any enquiry (investigation) is collection of data. The

data may be collected for the whole population or for a sample only. It is

mostly collected on sample basis. Collection of data is very difficult job. The

enumerator or investigator is the well trained person who collects the

statistical data. The respondents (information) are the persons whom the

information is collected.

Types of Data:

There are two types (sources) for the collection of data.

(1) Primary Data (2) Secondary Data

The primary data are the first hand information collected, compiled

and published by organization for some purpose. They are most original data

in character and have not undergone any sort of statistical treatment.

Example: Population census reports are primary data because these are

collected, complied and published by the population census organization.

The secondary data are the second hand information which are

already collected by some one (organization) for some purpose and are

available for the present study. The secondary data are not pure in character

and have undergone some treatment at least once.

Example: Economics survey of England is secondary data because these are

collected by more than one organization like Bureau of statistics, Board of

Revenue, the Banks etc…

Primary data are collected by the following methods:

him/herself and collects data from it. The data collected in this way is

usually accurate and reliable. This method of collecting data is only

applicable in case of small research projects.

the data. These investigators contact the individuals and fill in

questionnaire after asking the required information. Most of the

organizing implied this method.

from local representation or agents that are based upon their own

experience. This method is quick but gives only rough estimate.

telephone this method is quick and give accurate information

The secondary data are collected by the following sources:

Finance, the Federal Bureaus of Statistics, Ministries of Food,

Agriculture, Industry, Labor etc…

Committee, Boards of Economic Enquiry etc…

6.What are the functions of classification? What are the requisites of a

good classification? What is Table and describe the usefulness of a table in

mode of presentation of data?

Ans.

according to some common characteristics present in the data is called

classification. Classification is a process of statistical analysis. For Example:

The process of sorting letters in a post office, the letters are classified

according to the cities and further arranged according to streets

e.

ii. Exhaustive: every unit should be allotted to one and only one class

vii. Homogeneity: Similar units are essential features of the collected data.

TABLE:

tabulation. A table is a symmetric arrangement of statistical data in

rows and columns. Rows are horizontal arrangements whereas columns are

vertical arrangements. It may be simple, double or complex depending upon

the type of classification.

The basic structure of a table is a set of columns and rows that contain

the data and usually contain either a row or column (or both) of headings

that organize the data. A table is generally less effective than a graph

because it only shows the data, whereas the graph shows an interpretation of

the data, which is easier for the audience to understand. When you are

presenting a table, you will need to provide the interpretation of the data for

the audience. One way to make certain cells stand out is to change the

background color of the cell or enhance the text by changing the color or

making it bolder. Column and/or row headings should be bolded to

distinguish them from the data. Most presentation software packages have a

built-in table creation tool that will serve most purposes quite well.

--It is used to compare individual values

--The values must be expressed precisely

• To simplify complex data

• To facilitate comparison

• To facilitate further analysis

relationships.

may show the range, interval, and number of readings.

can be read by selecting and controlling factors to search for patterns

in the data.

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