Ranges (Up till 10.

50am HKT)
Currency

Currency

EURUSD

1.1016-45

EURJPY

132.72-935

USDJPY

120.28-58

EURGBP

0.7138-50

GBPUSD

1.5428-58

USDSGD

1.3983-1.4010

USDCHF
AUDUSD

0.9852-76
0.7105-50

USDTHB
USDKRW

35.54-595
1139.7-1143.3

NZDUSD

0.6732-85

USDTWD

32.471-810

USDCAD

1.3065-81

USDCNH

6.3206-6.3437

AUDNZD

1.0515-65

XAU

1134.2-1141.3

Key Headlines

Passing the baton, or pushing the decision

making. Think about this last Friday, BOJ
decided to stay unchanged and put off inflation
target to H2 2016. Over the weekend, ECB
Draghi said further stimulus is an open question.
Tomorrow, well have RBA and market is not
expecting a move. The rate decision baton is
pushed to Fed. It will be very interesting if Fed
decides to do nothing. There are 2 labour reports
before Fed decision.
3 Fed speakers this week to watch for. All
scheduled on Wednesday. Chairwoman Janet
Yellen to appear before the House Financial
Services committee. Fed NY President Dudley
will speak and take questions that afternoon at a
press briefing on Looking Beyond the Macro
Economy in New York. And, this is followed by
Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, on same
evening in Washington on central bank
independence.
The push down in USDCNY and USDCNH is
dragging some Usd/Asia lower as well. One of
the prominent victims is UsdSgd.

FX Flows
Biggest move this morning goes to the Turkish Lira. The
pair ended Fri at 2.9150; opened up at 2.9135, traded
down to 2.8182 following news that Turkey's ruling
Justice and Development Party winning the
parliamentary election, regaining the majority it lost in
June. After the move, the Lira spent most of the time
above 2.8300.
New Yorkers left EurUsd at 1.10035 last Friday. We
opened up higher following the Italian newspaper Il Sole
24 Ore article ECB President Mario Draghi. Summing up
the interview, Draghi said nothing is firm, too early to
tell, premature to make an evaluation and lastly, further
stimulus is an open question. EurUsd popped to 1.1045,
then backed off to 1.01022 for Tokyo open. I hear offers

are lined up near 1.1090-95 but stop buy orders are

building up above 1.1111, which is the 200-day SMA. Bids
are said to be surrounding 1.1000.
One nasty move for spot Gold. Precious metal opened at
1140.80 versus NY close of 1142.30. Then fell to print
1134.2 and snap right back to 1140. One newswire wrote
that the move in thin market engineered to butcher a
stop sell order.
At first it was Finance Minister Bill Englishs interview,
hinted of interest rate cut and rates will stay low for a
while. Then RBNZ published an article that evaluating
monetary policy, it is not sufficient to look at inflation
outcomes alone. NzdUsd got nudged down to 0.6732.
We also witnessed speculative names taking money off
the table in AudNzd. The cross got lifted up to 1.0565
then back to 1.0520, where it all started.
Nikkei opened in red and spent most of the time in
negative. UsdJpy opened at 120.55 Wellington and
traded down to 120.28. I was told real money demand
below 120.20 instigated buying out of Tokyo. Keep a
close watch on the downside; stop sell orders from
systematic names below 119.80.

Asians
Watching the PBOC fix isnt fun especially when the
central bank delays the publication, by 2 minutes.
Fixed today at 6.3154, strongest since August 12.
USDCNH was shoved to 6.3210 immediately. Buyers
surfaced but were cautious. Onshore moved up and
buyers in USDCNH became more aggressive. The pair
was paid up to 6.3437.
The push down in USDCNY and USDCNH is dragging
some Usd/Asia lower as well. One of the prominent
victims is UsdSgd. The pair touched 1.3983 and snapped
back to 1.4000 because of USDCNH.

Who said what

Greek Government: Bank recapitalization fund

participation to be 25% via common shares
Greek Government: HFSF to inject capital into
Greek banks 75% via cocos, 25% shares
Greek
Government:
Greek
government
preference shares will participate in burden
sharing
RBNZ Assistant Governor McDermott: RBNZ
shouldnt be judged on inflation outcome alone
NZ Treasury: Sees annual GDP growth at less
than 2% in Q4
NZ Treasury: Sees annual inflation above 1% in
early 2016

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

News & Data

Australia
Oct
AiG
Performance
of
Manufacturing Index at 50.2 from 52.1
South Korea Sept BOP Current Account Surplus
increased to $10.610bn from $8.455bn
South Korea Sept BOP Goods Balance up
$12.058bn from $8.974bn
Australia Oct TD Sec Inflation Index M/M flat
from +0.3%
Australia Oct TD Sec Inflation Index Y/Y up
1.8% from 1.9%
Australia Sept Building Approvals M/M rose
2.2% from -6.9% (exp. +1%; revision -9.5%)
Australia Sept Building Approvals Y/Y rose
21.4% from +5.1% (exp. +24.1; revision +4.7%)
Japan Oct Final Nikkei Manufacturing PMI at
52.4 from 52.5
China Oct Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to
48.3 from 47.2 (est. 47.6)

FT: Hedge fund leader Hintze eyes generous

Brexit donation
Sir Michael Hintze, hedge fund tycoon and top
Conservative party donor, is close to donating a large
sum to the EU Out camp in what would be a big boost for
the eurosceptic movement. Downing Street and senior
pro-EU Tory officials have been concerned for some time
that wealthy hedge fund figures, many of whom are
eurosceptic, could pour money into the Brexit campaign,
boosting its resources ahead of a referendum due by
2017. Sir Michael, who has given 3.2m to the
Conservatives over a decade, is said by friends to be
considering a generous donation.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8e8daeb2-7ef4-11e598fb-5a6d4728f74e.html
SCMP: Chinese Premier Li Keqiang goes on the
record with 6.5 per cent economic growth target
Premier Li Keqiang unveiled a 6.5 per cent annualised
economic growth target for the next five years on
Sunday, as he tried to ease global investors' fears about a
slowdown in China's economy. Addressing South Korean
business leaders in Seoul, Li said China would aim for
lower growth in gross domestic product but would still
meet its target of creating a "moderately prosperous"
society by 2020. "In terms of GDP, we need to maintain
year-on-year growth of at least 6.5 per cent to meet the
goal," he said, adding that concerns about China's
slowing growth were excessive.
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/18
74809/chinese-premier-li-keqiang-goes-record-65-centeconomic-growth

MNI Analysis: China's Falling PMIs Offer Little

Room for Optimism
China appears to have made a weak start to the fourth
quarter, judging by the two official PMIs released over
the weekend, suggesting that the economy is showing
little response to this year's monetary easing, nor to
stepped-up fiscal spending and government calls for
faster infrastructure investment. The PMIs offer the
latest evidence that the economy is under increasing
stress. China's biggest industrial companies are coming
out with lousy nine-month results. Anhui Conch, one of
China's biggest cement producers reported that profit
excluding investment gains sank 47% in the first nine
months, while the price of cement plummeted 21% in the
third quarter year-on-year to a record low.
https://mninews.marketnews.com/
Stuff News: Booming migration, cooling
economy set to send NZ unemployment above
6%
On Wednesday official figures from Statistics New
Zealand are expected to show that the economy created
an estimated 10,000 additional jobs in the three months
to September 30, a 0.4 per cent increase in employment.
But economists believe a greater number entered the
New Zealand workforce looking for jobs, as migrants both Kiwi and foreign nationals - boosted the working
age population. Some economists warn unemployment
could come close to 7 per cent late near year or in early
2017, a figure not seen since 2012.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/73548509/boomingmigration-cooling-economy-set-to-send-nzunemployment-above-6-pc
WSJ: Shift to Benefits From Pay Helps Explain
Sluggish Wage Growth
U.S. employers, slow to reward workers with higher pay,
have been quicker in recent years to offer signing
bonuses, more paid time off and other perks. The move
toward benefits over pay provides a few clues that help
explain a chief mystery of the current expansion: the
unusually sluggish growth in wages. Some of the move
toward benefits reflects a workforce that puts a high
value on flexibility, health insurance, time off and other
things besides wages. But the shift also highlights the
fragility of an expansion in which employers remain
hesitant to commit to higher wages and are turning
instead to more revocable perks. That could have
broader repercussions if consumers arent able to tap
bigger pay-checks and boost their spending.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/shift-to-benefits-frompay-helps-explain-sluggish-wage-growth-1446406818?
mod=wsj_nview_latest
WSJ: Troubles in U.S. Manufacturing Can Still
Weaken Economy

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

Manufacturers are in a funk. The question is how much

that matters for the U.S. economy. Economic trouble
overseas has cut into demand for manufactured goods
while also pushing the value of the dollar higher, making
it harder for U.S. factories to compete. At home, the drop
in oil-patch investment has weighed on capitalequipment sales. Little wonder, then, that manufacturers
are feeling morose, or that the Institute for Supply
Managements release of its October manufacturing
index Monday likely wont look good.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/troubles-in-u-smanufacturing-can-still-weaken-economy-1446404638?
mod=wsj_nview_latest
Wolfgang Mnchau in FT: Enlargement and the
euro are two big mistakes that ruined Europe
I put it down to two catastrophic errors committed
during the 1990s and at the beginning of this
millennium. The first was the introduction of the euro;
the second, the EUs enlargement to 28 members from
15 a couple of decades ago. You might agree with one or
other of these statements, or with neither of them. But
few people will agree with both.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fbaae6e0-7f35-11e598fb-5a6d4728f74e.html#axzz3qGO9IMga
WSJ:
Turkeys
Ruling
AKP
Regains
Parliamentary Majority
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogans stalled hopes
of consolidating power received an unexpected boost on
Sunday when the long-ruling political party he founded
staged a stunning comeback and regained sole control of
parliament. Less than six months after losing control it
held for 13 years, Mr. Erdogans Justice and
Development Party, or AKP, stormed back to power
Sunday by regaining the seats it lost and marginalizing
rivals who hoped to contain the presidents ambitions.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/erdogan-seeks-toconsolidate-rule-in-turkish-election-1446363600
Roger Bootle in Telegraph: Three reasons why
Britain needs 'Brexit
Last week, the Prime Minister said that life outside the
EU would not be all milk and honey. He pointed to the
disadvantages of the Norwegian option, saying that
Norway had to accept EU regulations, yet had no vote or
influence in Brussels, makes a substantial contribution
to the EU budget and even has no effective control over
its borders. Why would Britain want such an
arrangement? Why indeed? Even the Norwegians arent
that keen. The Swiss havent adopted it and, pointedly,
the Americans, or any other country that trades with the
EU, havent sought to ape it. So lets put the Norwegian
option to one side.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/1196881
3/Three-reasons-why-Britain-needs-Brexit.html

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Telegraph: Brexit is

a life or death matter for Britain's farmers
British farmers currently receive 60pc of their income
from EU subsidies and environmental subsidies. They
would lose most of this at a stroke unless the British
government guaranteed compensating support of one
kind or another, and so far it has clarified nothing. Yet
like all Brexit and counter-Brexit assertions, the Devil is
in the assumption. Agra Europe takes it as a given that
David Cameron or any other British prime minister will
do little to prevent such a bloodbath running its course if
the British people vote to withdraw from Europe, and
say goodbye to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/119670
49/Brexit-is-a-life-or-death-matter-for-Britainsfarmers.html
FT: China aids eurozone QE drive with sales of
German bonds
Eurozone central bankers, struggling to boost the
currency areas flagging recovery, have received help
from Beijing in delivering their 1.1tn quantitative
easing plan thanks to sales of German government debt
by the Peoples Bank of China. The PBoCs reserve
management wing, the State Administration of Foreign
Exchange, has been selling some of its German
government bonds since the ECB began buying them in
March, say two sources close to central banks in China
and Europe.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/302bd274-7f29-11e5ae43-f6d4a22c5a1a.html?ftcamp=published_links
%2Frss%2Fhome_us%2Ffeed%2F
%2Fproduct#axzz3qGO9IMga
AFR: Big banks tipped to pass on most of any
RBA cut
If the Reserve Bank lowers official interest rates to a new
record low on Melbourne Cup day this week, analysts say
big banks would pass on the bulk of the cut to borrowers.
Financial markets are betting there is roughly a 45 per
cent chance of a cut in official interest rates on Tuesday.
One reason for this is the mortgage rate increases by
Westpac, Commonwealth Bank, National Australia Bank
and ANZ Bank in October, alongside very weak inflation
figures.
http://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/bigbanks-tipped-to-pass-on-most-of-any-rba-cut-20151101gko3b6

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.