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Luxury business: responding

to the crisis

KPM G I NT E R N AT I O N A L
Contents

Executive summary 1

Luxury business: responding to the crisis 2

Luxury remains vulnerable 3

The credit crisis persists 3

The 'golden rules' 5

Cash flow forecasts are weak 8

Conclusion: a roadmap for survival 9

© 2009 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of
independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm
has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG
International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
Luxury business: responding to the crisis 1

Executive summary

Many luxury goods companies are in • Cut costs intelligently. Cutting results, and running a 13-week

the grip of a double crisis. A declining the right costs is difficult. While rolling forecast reviewed daily.

economy has hit sales, while a financial continuous cost reduction may be
• In the case of distressed companies
credit crisis has made debt difficult and required for survival, it has to be
with an international network and
costly to raise and service. The result achieved without reducing quality
different IT systems, a move to
is that many luxury companies find or effective marketing spend.
centralized cash pooling may be
themselves in a liquidity crisis
• Maintain strategic investment. necessary, as well as moving to cut
that requires urgent remedial action
Fear of increasing indebtedness in a operations that are burning cash,
to survive.
debt-adverse market is leading some prioritizing solvent clients with
During the first two quarters of 2009 companies to freeze investment. discounts, implementing factoring
stock markets have staged a partial That may keep stock market to reduce payment times, and
recovery, and the rate of decline in investors happy in the short term, considering more sale and
property prices and in unemployment but eventually it can undermine leaseback of assets.
has moderated. Yet the corporate a company’s competitive position.
Significant improvements are often
credit crisis has not gone away. Most
• Manage liquidity. Although liquidity achieved quickly, but making results
companies in financial distress will still
has become the leading issue for sustainable requires the adoption of
need to revisit their market positioning,
CFOs, cash management in many a ‘liquidity mindset.’ The opportunity
their cost cutting strategies and
companies remains weak. Luxury is to achieve improvements over the
their investment plans, and above
companies, accustomed to a focus medium-and long-term; the challenge
all improve their cash management,
on product and sales, may be is to make cash management become
if they are to survive.
weaker than most. Acting to improve a natural part of everyday life for
In mid-2009 companies continue liquidity must therefore be at the everyone in the company.
to enter financial crisis. The signs of top of the agenda.
approaching distress include missed
Liquidity forecasting must play a
budget targets, falling margins,
key part in avoiding financial crisis:
worsening working capital and
according to the 2008 Cash & Working
increased reliance on trade credit,
Capital Survey, carried out by KPMG
while supplier conditions tighten.
in the U.K., but also covering U.S. and
Companies faced with these conditions Europe, many companies have a very
should follow four ‘golden rules’ poor record of forecasting what cash
of survival. they will have, and where and when
they will have it.
• Revise market positioning.
Companies faced with falling sales • KPMG's Advisory practice
often persist for far too long with recommends that companies
extended product portfolios or establish a task force dedicated
business lines that no longer make to cash flow improvement, setting
sense: rapid repositioning is vital. targets and paying bonuses on

© 2009 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of
independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm
has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG
International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
2 Luxury business: responding to the crisis

Luxury business: responding to the crisis

The credit crisis that has engulfed


businesses of all kinds has hit luxury KPMG's Fashion & Luxury Global Index 2001-2009
companies particularly hard. Many well-
USD
known names have been driven to the 160 Stock
Economic depreciation
market
brink of insolvency. KPMG believes downturn Reduced slowdown
140 overseas
that for many more, survival will Declining travel
require a drastic re-appraisal of the consumer Financial
120
confidence crisis
way they do business. Iraq
conflict
100
The business landscape for all Robust
Subprime
global
consumer companies has changed out 80 mortgage
economy
crisis
of all recognition in the last 12 months. Recovering
60 consumer
The global credit system has stopped Sept 11 SARS confidence
functioning. Very large companies 40

including many banks have come


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close to bankruptcy. Stock markets
MSCI (€) Index F&L Global
have fallen steeply, growth in mature
and emerging markets has declined Source: KPMG analysis of Bloomberg data; Morgan Stanley Composite Index
and in many cases turned negative. Note: Updated: 22/05/09

Commodity prices have fallen, and


Only a year ago many luxury
real interest rates have been reduced
companies believed that their brand
to near zero.
power and the high net wealth of
Adding to the sense of a crisis of their customers meant that they were
confidence, the financial system that largely insulated from what happened
services the free market is broken. in the broad economy. The idea was
Where capital was formerly plentiful supported by the fact that luxury
and cheap, now the financing needs brand owners had delivered higher
of companies are getting more and sales growth than other consumer
more complex. Some companies companies since the end of the
have benefited from these changes. dotcom bust, and that their share
But most have suffered. Many good prices had tended to hold
companies are at risk of bankruptcy. up when other segments of the
market faltered.
Perhaps the most important aspect of
this downturn – and the reason that Events of the last year have shown
so many companies are struggling that luxury companies are at least
– is that the broad economy is as vulnerable as other consumer
implicated. Whereas the last downturn companies in a recession. Middle-
that followed the dotcom bust income consumers have reined in their
was essentially the unwinding of discretionary spending sharply. The
a corporate investment bubble, in very rich have seen their net worth
this downturn the consumer is over­ dramatically reduced by the fall
leveraged. Consumer debt takes in stock markets and property
a long time to correct, and when values, decimating demand for
final demand is so weak, the whole super-luxuries like yachts, cars and
economy suffers. property-related purchases.

© 2009 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of
independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm
has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG
International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
Luxury business: responding to the crisis 3

Luxury remains vulnerable


KPMG's Global Fashion & Luxury KPMG's Fashion & Luxury Global Index 2008-2009
Index reveals the correlation of luxury
5 -Jun 5-Jul 5-Aug 5-Sep 5-Oct 5-Nov 5-Dec 5-Jan 5-Feb 5-Mar 5-Apr 5-May 5-Jun
business with the broad economy.
The index tracks the share prices of
(10)%
60 fashion and luxury companies on
10 different stock exchanges and in (20)%

different market segments – from


(30)%
basic fashion, to high luxury, to
(40)%
top-end retailers.
(50)%
The graph on page 2 shows the
(60)%
index performance versus a broad
MSCI (€) Index F&L Global
global stock market index, since
2001. It suggests that there is indeed Source: KPMG analysis of Bloomberg data; Morgan Stanley Composite Index

a correlation between the luxury


index and measures like economic
growth, currency fluctuations and For some luxury companies the
consumer confidence. It shows pressure has come from the
that in times of growth, luxury has combination of falling sales at a time
performed somewhat better than of rising finance costs. Many family
the average, shown by the Morgan owned luxury brand owners began to
Stanley Composite Index. But it is also sell stakes to private equity investors
clear that luxury companies feel what in recent years as part of a search
everyone else feels: when average for expansion capital, taking on large
performance falls, luxury falls. amounts of debt in the process. The
credit crisis has dramatically increased
The credit crisis persists the cost of servicing or rolling over
During the first two quarters of 2009 this debt, and in some cases the
stock markets have staged a partial combined rise in finance costs and fall
recovery, and the rate of decline in in sales has pushed companies close
property prices and in unemployment to collapse.
has moderated. Yet the credit crisis
has not gone away: tight financial And the transition from apparent health
conditions and aversion to corporate to extreme financial distress can be
debt are still restricting the ability of very rapid. During 2009 KPMG has
companies to raise new money and worked with a number of companies
service their existing debts. At the that in just a few months have gone
same time cash flow is being squeezed from growth to crisis.
by customers lengthening payment
terms and suppliers tightening % of companies experiencing a high impact in the following areas:
credit terms.
Increased pressure from stakeholders 55%
The bar chart to the right shows
Customers delaying payment 54%
some results from the latest KPMG
Cash & Working Capital Survey of
Reduced access to credit 51%
more than 550 companies worldwide
in 17 business sectors. Over half of Increased cost of credit 50%
those companies (55 percent) are
Suppliers demanding early payment 49%
experiencing increasing financial
pressure from their stakeholders and
say it is getting more and more difficult Source: KPMG Cash & Working Capital Management Survey 2008 in US, UK and Europe

to get credit.
© 2009 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of
independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm
has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG
International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
4 Luxury business: responding to the crisis
Luxury business: responding to the crisis 5

Yet many of the early warning signs


of approaching distress are there to Crisis lifecycle is ultra-rapid
see, for anyone who is watching the
company’s liquidity position closely.
1
Budget targets are suddenly missed; • Business growing Warning signs
margins fall, working capital increases • Targets exceeded • Budget targets missed
• Falling margins
and companies become increasingly 2 • Working capital increases
reliant on trade credit, while supplier Performance • Sudden slowdown
Recovery • Borrowing and trade credit need rising
conditions are likely to be tightening, actions • Supply chain
disrupted • Banks asking for ‘due diligence’ data
and banks and clients are likely to ask • Clients asking for financial health check
the company for much more detailed • Supplier conditions tightening
3 • First profit warning scheduled
financial data. • Functional
Deep
restructuring insolvency
This process continues today: in actions • A crisis of survival

mid-2009 KPMG sees companies,


particularly medium-sized companies,
Timeline
continuing to enter the rapid crisis
cycle from a position of apparent
health. In most cases the core • Revise market positioning. on those markets or segments that
problem is one of liquidity. Companies faced with falling sales are most likely to sustain revenues.
often persist for far too long with Companies should also consider
How should these companies respond extended product portfolios or whether they are delivering the right
to such a crisis? There is a roadmap business lines that no longer make value and the correct service level:
that luxury businesses can follow, sense: rapid repositioning is vital. luxury based just on brand but not on
according to Maurizio Castello of
value is unlikely to succeed in current
KPMG's Advisory Practice in Italy, The problem may be particularly acute
conditions. Unprofitable business lines
an industry specialist who has been for luxury companies that have become
that are not part of the core business
advising crisis-hit luxury companies on accustomed to profiting from the power
should be disposed of, to focus
strategies and financing issues. "The of their brands. KPMG recommends
financial and managerial resources on
key to surviving now and prospering that instead of relying just on brand
primary products or more promising
in the future is for companies to power, companies should refocus
business areas.
realise how drastically and rapidly
they need to improve their operational
Revise your market positioning
performance," says Mr Castello.
The ‘golden rules’ Actions and opportunities
The 'golden rules'
“Companies approaching a financial
1. Revise your market positioning Ride the changes
crisis can be tempted to cut
• Understand that market needs are changing
everything they can just to stay
solvent,” says Maurizio Castello. “That
2. Cut costs intelligently Revise the value proposition
might be a mistake; if they are going
to cut they need to cut intelligently, • Strengthen core brands, reduce complexity
to release resources
while still investing for recovery.”
• Slim down the product portfolio
He adds that KPMG’s advisory
3. Don’t stop investing
• Concentrate on markets that are growing
experience with luxury companies
during 2009 suggests that there • Promote value for money: enhance service,
add functions
are four ‘golden rules’ that luxury
companies should bear in mind when 4. Create and manage liquidity
planning for survival and recovery.

© 2009 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of
independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm
has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG
International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
6 Luxury business: responding to the crisis

• Cut costs intelligently. Cutting


the right costs is difficult. While Cut costs intelligently
continuous cost reduction may be
The ‘golden rules’ Actions and opportunities
required for survival, it has to be
achieved without reducing quality
1. Revise your market positioning Cost control must be strategic
or marketing spend.
• Do not reduce quality
Many companies reduce marketing • Support marketing and sales budgets
budgets across the board, although 2. Cut costs intelligently • Maintain investment in innovation and product
the evidence is that weeding development

out underperforming marketing • Invest in human capital


expenses while increasing spending • Aim cost control at product profitability
3. Don’t stop investing
on well-targeted marketing will
get better results. Companies that
stop communicating their message
through marketing could rapidly lose 4. Create and manage liquidity
market share and undermine their
brands. Cutting jobs is also an easy
win that can be costly in the longer-
term: luxury companies frequently
have large amounts of human capital
embodied in the skills of employees,
which once lost are usually gone
forever, making a business re-launch
in the recovery period very difficult.
KPMG recommends alternative
ways of reducing HR costs without
firing the best skilled staff such as
salary sacrifice, overtime banks and
rationalising benefits.

“ Above all you have to resist the


temptation to cut quality,” says
Maurizio Castello. “Quality is intrinsic
to the whole concept of luxury, and
there can be no compromise on that.
But what companies can do is cut
out useless product accessories,
or aesthetic details that cannot be
perceived even by an experienced
client but which may be very
expensive to produce.”

© 2009 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of
independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm
has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG
International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
Luxury business: responding to the crisis 7

• Maintain strategic investment.


Don’t stop investing
Fear of increasing indebtedness in a
debt-adverse market is leading some The ‘golden rules’ Actions and opportunities
companies to freeze investment. That
may keep stock market investors 1. Revise your market positioning If capital is available, invest
happy in the short term, • Invest in new technologies to support sales
but eventually it could undermine and client experience
a company’s competitive position. • Invest in e-commerce channels
2. Cut costs intelligently
• Invest in IT to improve quality and productivity
Luxury companies typically need to
and reduce time-to-market
invest intensively in retail network
• Invest in distressed assets
development and intellectual property.
3. Don’t stop investing If capital is short, redefine the banking
Now is also when luxury companies
relationship
should be maintaining investment in IT:
• Lower leverage wherever possible
“new technology can help to reduce
• Communicate your survival strategy, share the
product development and operations 4. Create and manage liquidity
business plan in detail
costs, provide real-time sales data
from the store network, and can also
support the development of alternative
clients will pay on time, or to decide
routes to clients such as e-commerce,”
which strategic suppliers must be
says Maurizio Castello. Now is also a
paid in turn, especially if the company
favourable time for the acquisition of
has many foreign subsidiaries which
distressed assets that may allow retail
trap cash. Maurizio Castello says
expansion or the securing of strategic
that “accurate forecasting is vital in
supplies. “To finance such investments
reducing an organization’s exposure
you have to re-think the way you
to financial risk, but many companies
access capital,” says Maurizio Castello.
have a very poor record of forecasting
“It is now much more important to
what cash they will have, and where
communicate your strategy to banks
and when they will have it. They keep
and other providers of capital. You
missing their targets and end up with
may have to explain your business
pools of hidden cash doing nothing
plans in more detail, and give full
when it could be contributing to
information about short and medium-
the business.”
term management of the business.
Banks are very afraid of getting
Create and manage liquidity
involved in anything that might not pay.
It is only when they have a really good The ‘golden rules’ Actions and opportunities
understanding of your plans and the
actions you are going to take that they 1. Revise your market positioning Control cash in and cash out
can help you sustain your business.” • Stop burning cash: cut product lines, and cash
consuming projects
• Manage liquidity. Although liquidity
• Involve clients & suppliers to redesign supply
has become the leading issue for 2. Cut costs intelligently
chain for better cash management
CFOs, cash management in many
• Control the solvency of the client base, allow
companies remains weak. Luxury discounts to speed payments
companies, accustomed to a focus
3. Don’t stop investing • Introduce credit factoring
on product and sales, may be weaker
• Tighter control of order-to-cash and
than most. Acting to improve purchase-to-pay procedures
liquidity must therefore be at the • Introduce sale & leaseback of strategic assets
top of the agenda. 4. Create and manage liquidity
• Sell non-strategic assets

Liquidity forecasting must play a key


part in avoiding financial crisis, but it is
© 2009 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of
not easy to forecast which important independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm
has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG
International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
8 Luxury business: responding to the crisis

Cash flow forecasts are weak


For some years KPMG has been % of companies focusing efforts on the following areas:
tracking how companies interpret their
Negotiating longer payment terms 49%
cash flows, through the KPMG Cash & from suppliers
Working Capital Surveys. The results
Tightening credit lines to customers 46%
from a panel of 552 companies in 17
industries, including luxury, show that Assessing opportunities to improve
cash generation 30%
while almost all companies produce
Selling non-performing assets 24%
regular cash flow forecasts, only
14 percent of companies find their 22%
Revisiting debt structure
forecasts accurate and over 80 percent
of companies have seen their working
Source: KPMG Cash & Working Capital Management Survey 2008 in US, UK and Europe
capital position worsen in the last year.

The latest Survey shows that many However, for sustainable improvements
CFOs are now focusing on the first line companies may need to re-organize the
of liquidity improvement: negotiating financial function. If a business has an
longer terms, tightening credit lines, international network of subsidiaries
and selling non-performing assets. – typical of a luxury company – with
The challenge now is to achieve real a lot of different IT systems, it may
benefits from these measures, make be time to move to centralized cash
them sustainable in the medium-term pooling. That gives financial managers
and not to miss potential savings. access to overall available liquidity, and
it may be the only way to make cash
Making improvements in liquidity flow visible.
management sustainable in the
medium-term requires more than a Focusing on liquidity can bring results.
mere adjustment of existing processes, The chart below shows the ranges
says Maurizio Castello. “To reach of improvements KPMG finds that
your targets what is needed here is a companies can achieve.
change of mindset,” he says. “It is no
good trying to deal with a liquidity
Achievable improvements in working capital based on KPMG
crisis if you are stuck in a revenue
experience in marketplace
and margin mindset. You need to
focus on liquidity.” Areas Range of improvement

Significant results are often achieved Contracted DSO 15%-30%

quickly. Companies can achieve rapid


results on receivables, on payables
and on inventory, by acting to create
a strategic segmentation of clients
Clients
{
Payment delays
Collection process
Disputes
5%-25%
30%-60%

30%-70%

{
and suppliers, by managing customers Contracted DPO 10%-25%
Suppliers Payment process 25%-50%
proactively, and by introducing new
Cost negotiations 5%-10%

payment term models, inventory


classifications and stockholding

Inventory level 15%-25%

strategies – that means clear policies Supply Procurement lead time 10%-30%
on what to stock and where to hold it chain Average improvement
Stock-out reduction 2%-17%
– and sharing forecasts with strategic Max improvement

customers and suppliers. Source: Data based on a set of working capital improvement projects in multinational companies

© 2009 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of
independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm
has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG
International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
Luxury business: responding to the crisis 9

Conclusion

A roadmap for survival


The route to excellence in liquidity
“Don’t try to do everything at once,”
counsels Maurizio Castello. KPMG Cash & Working Capital Framework
He adds “yes, you need to go quickly Put liquidity at the heart of
– but still you need to go step by step.” 4 STRATEGIC DECISIONS

“First, plan and control the cash.


Second, use that control to reduce 3 Go BEYOND WORKING CAPITAL: cash
your working capital in a sustainable pooling, tax optimization, property...

and lasting way. Then move on to


2 Gain SUSTAINABLE WORKING
other things that may generate
CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS
additional cash – cash pooling, tax
optimization, and vacant properties
1 Plan and control of CASH
are just some examples.”
INFLOWS/ OUTFLOWS

In the end companies should recognise


that optimal cash management is not
just a fix for a temporary problem. It is
about seeing liquidity as part of your
strategic decision-making process.

KPMG believes that cash management


is a discipline. It makes company
leaders think about products. It
makes them think about the cost of
complexity in their product ranges and
in their production processes. It also
raises questions about supply chain
design – and it is very rare to find a
supply chain that cannot be better
optimized for cash generation.

Luxury companies do not need to


be told how big a challenge they
face today. But challenges are always
opportunities. The opportunity is to
achieve sustainable improvements
over the long term, and the challenge Liquidity is now strategic
is to make cash management All industrial processes and marketing decisions impact on liquidity
a natural part of everyday
life for everyone in the company. Product Supply chain Clients and markets

Engendering a liquidity mindset is not


just a crisis strategy. Cash and working
Complexity of range Production footprint and Complexity of range
capital are set to remain high on the distribution network
corporate agenda. Winning companies
can release cash from their businesses
to provide financial flexibility. They can Manufacturing complexity Sales network Offer complexity
use today’s opportunity to embed
cash into their culture, and that can
maintain a healthy balance between Product lifecycle Strategic sourcing Market approach
cash and earnings when economic
prosperity returns.
© 2009 KPMG International. KPMG International is a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG network of
independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm
has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG
International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
kpmg.com

KPMG’s European luxury contacts

Hélène Béguin Luxury marketing contacts


Leader of KPMG’s European
Luxury Goods Practice Fíona Sheridan
Partner (KPMG in Switzerland) Senior Marketing Manager
Tel: +41 21 345 03 56 Tel: +44 20 7311 8507
hbeguin@kpmg.com fiona.sheridan@kpmg.co.uk

Maurizio Castello Stephanie Sork


Head of Fashion and Luxury Marketing Manager
Practice in Italy Tel: +41 21 345 01 97
Partner (KPMG in Italy) ssork1@kpmg.com
Tel: +39 02 6763 2682
mauriziocastello@kpmg.it

Eric Ropert
Partner (KPMG in France)
Tel: +33 1 556 87190
eropert@kpmg.com

Katja Ritter
Partner (KPMG in Germany)
Tel: +49 89 9282 1126
kritter@kpmg.com

Amanda Aldridge
Partner (KPMG in the UK)
Tel: +44 20 7311 8073
amanda.aldridge@kpmg.co.uk

The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any © 2009 KPMG International. KPMG International is
particular individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no a Swiss cooperative. Member firms of the KPMG
guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the network of independent firms are affiliated with
future. No-one should act upon such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination KPMG International. KPMG International provides no
of the particular situation. client services. No member firm has any authority
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the interviewees and do not necessarily represent the views to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other
and opinions of KPMG International or KPMG member firms. member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG
International have any such authority to obligate or
bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks
of KPMG International, a Swiss cooperative.
Produced by KPMG LLP (UK)’s Design Services

Publication name: Luxury business responding


to the crisis

Publication number: RRD-166241

Publication date: September 2009

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