C+D
E+F
G/P
Sectores de Servicios
Se ha estimado el traslado a los precios bsicos domsticos de una devaluacin real (devaluacin no compensada por aumento/reduccin
de impuestos al comercio exterior ni ajustes en el costo de la mano de obra), y para una situacin de competencia perfecta:
Sector productivo
A+B
100.00%
C+D
60.47%
E+F
23.74%
G/P
8.96%
33.25%
Para confeccionar los cuadros, se supuso una devaluacin real del 50%
Ver tambin: Tipo de cambio de equilibrio en Argentina, CENFEM (UB) pdf, 8 pginas
Los siguientes cuadros resean los datos utilizados y el resultado para el caso base analizado:
Bruto
577,722.4
2,357,848.4
741,502.9
3,939,359.4
7,616,433.1
Bruto
7,616,433.1
363,712.9
31,681.2
373,902.1
0.0
0.0
8,385,729.4
646,102.2
0.0
9,031,831.5
3,460,458.3
3,137,480.8
802,308.8
641,587.3
842,727.7
147,268.6
0.0
9,031,831.5
Insumos
245,967.7
1,596,992.4
337,124.7
1,280,373.6
3,460,458.3
A+B
80,817.4
352,436.6
191.5
7,386.1
440,831.7
A+B
577,722.4
30,460.2
73.2
6,086.0
50,484.3
1,552.8
666,378.9
5,458.6
-0.0
671,837.5
440,831.7
57,991.9
Insumos
C+D
96,818.6
957,026.3
279,554.3
418,376.2
1,751,775.4
C+D
2,357,848.4
257,525.3
31,608.0
193,647.4
604,583.1
40,461.9
3,485,674.0
514,178.8
0.0
3,999,852.8
1,751,775.4
1,431,686.1
95,028.3
8,348.4
69,637.2
0.0
671,837.5
432,927.6
305,832.4
77,631.3
0.0
3,999,852.8
A+B
9,678.20
42,205.65
22.93
884.52
52,791.30
A+B
69,486.87
3,663.67
8.81
732.01
6,063.82
186.50
80,141.68
637.63
0.00
80,779.31
52,791.30
6,944.76
Insumos
C+D
11,598.82
114,651.34
33,490.48
50,121.29
209,861.93
C+D
284,765.50
31,102.22
3,817.41
23,387.45
72,917.76
4,879.64
420,869.98
60,057.86
0.00
480,927.84
209,861.93
171,515.38
11,704.17
999.75
8,339.33
0.00
80,779.31
53,611.74
36,638.59
9,300.20
0.00
480,927.84
E+F
1,794.5
59,585.8
11,699.0
109,926.5
183,005.8
E+F
741,502.9
10,953.6
0.0
36,982.7
0.0
0.0
789,439.3
989.2
0.0
790,428.4
183,005.8
92,761.9
435.4
514,225.3
G/P
66,537.2
227,943.6
45,679.9
744,684.7
1,084,845.5
G/P
3,939,359.4
64,773.8
0.0
137,186.1
-655,067.4
-42,014.7
3,444,237.2
125,475.6
0.0
3,569,712.8
1,084,845.5
1,555,040.8
802,308.8
113,196.0
14,321.7
-0.0
790,428.4
-0.0
3,569,712.8
E+F
215.76
7,164.26
1,406.63
13,216.92
22,003.57
E+F
89,158.99
1,317.08
G/P
7,992.21
27,379.75
5,486.90
89,448.77
130,307.63
G/P
474,319.05
7,799.10
4,446.83
54.00
61,827.53
16,517.91
-78,981.58
-5,066.14
414,588.34
14,621.02
0.00
429,209.36
130,307.63
186,785.75
96,370.37
14,025.34
1,720.27
0.00
95,038.26
0.00
429,209.36
Neto
331,754.7
760,856.0
404,378.3
2,658,985.8
4,155,974.8
Bruto
7,616,433.1
363,712.9
31,681.2
373,902.1
0.0
0.0
8,385,729.4
646,102.2
0.0
9,031,831.5
3,460,458.3
3,137,480.8
802,308.8
641,587.3
842,727.7
147,268.6
0.0
9,031,831.5
Bruto
69,486.87
284,765.50
89,158.99
474,319.05
917,730.41
Bruto
917,730.41
43,882.07
3,826.22
45,084.20
0.00
0.00
1,010,522.90
75,431.87
0.00
1,085,954.77
414,964.43
376,399.05
96,370.37
79,395.25
101,186.14
17,639.53
0.00
1,085,954.77
Insumos
29,484.99
191,401.00
40,406.94
153,671.50
414,964.43
94,922.90
115.36
0.00
95,038.26
22,003.57
11,153.16
Neto
40,001.88
93,364.50
48,752.05
320,647.55
502,765.98
Bruto
917,730.41
43,882.07
3,826.22
45,084.20
0.00
0.00
1,010,522.90
75,431.87
0.00
1,085,954.77
414,964.43
376,399.05
96,370.37
79,395.25
101,186.14
17,639.53
0.00
1,085,954.77
A+B
8.350
8.350
8.351
8.350
8.350
A+B
8.314
8.314
8.312
8.314
8.325
8.326
8.315
8.561
Insumos
C+D
8.347
8.347
8.347
8.347
8.347
C+D
8.280
8.280
8.280
8.280
8.291
8.292
8.282
8.561
8.317
8.339
8.336
8.325
8.081
8.328
8.349
8.317
8.350
8.350
8.317
8.347
8.347
8.317
8.317
8.317
8.119
8.350
8.350
8.075
8.347
8.347
8.317
8.317
8.317
Bruto
Insumos
8.342
8.344
8.343
8.332
8.339
8.314
8.280
8.317
8.305
8.299
Bruto
8.299
8.288
8.280
8.293
8.298
8.565
E+F
8.317
8.317
8.317
8.317
8.317
E+F
8.317
8.317
G/P
8.325
8.325
8.325
8.325
8.325
G/P
8.305
8.305
8.317
8.305
8.294
8.293
8.308
8.582
8.317
8.575
Neto
8.293
8.149
8.295
8.293
8.266
Bruto
8.299
8.288
8.280
8.293
8.298
8.565
8.064
8.317
8.317
8.325
8.325
8.325
8.071
8.325
8.317
8.339
8.336
8.325
8.081
8.328
8.349
8.317
8.317
8.317
Datos estimados en moneda corriente, caso base, devaluacin real del 50%
En millones de pesos corrientes
Impacto de una Devaluacin Real del 50% en las Cuentas Nacionales (Caso base sin aumento de
Insumos
Caso base (millones de pesos)
Bruto
Insumos
A+B
C+D
E+F
A+B
866,583.6
318,844.8 121,226.1
126,093.1
2,007.5
C+D
3,070,779.3 2,079,866.7 528,655.0 1,246,397.6
66,658.7
E+F
829,519.3
425,183.0
287.2
364,081.7
13,087.7
G/P
4,115,842.7 1,456,979.1
11,079.2
544,878.5 122,974.8
Valor Agregado a Precios Bsicos
8,882,724.8 4,280,873.6 661,247.5 2,281,450.9 204,728.6
(millones de pesos corrientes)
Bruto
A+B
C+D
E+F
Valor Agregado Bruto a Precios Bsicos
8,882,724.8
866,583.6 3,070,779.3 829,519.3
Impuestos a los productos
461,011.7
45,690.3
335,391.9
12,253.8
Derechos de importacin
47,521.8
109.8
47,412.0
IVA
437,764.8
8,876.4
243,942.5
41,382.9
Margen de Comercio
0.0
52,746.0
631,668.4
Margen de Transporte
0.0
1,622.4
42,274.6
Oferta Domstica a Precios de Mercado
9,829,023.2
975,628.5 4,371,468.6 883,156.1
Importaciones
969,153.2
8,187.9
771,268.2
1,483.8
Discrepancia estadistica
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total Oferta
10,798,176.4
983,816.4 5,142,736.8 884,639.8
Consumo intermedio
4,280,873.6
661,247.5 2,281,450.9 204,728.6
Consumo Individual
3,510,054.3
63,048.0 1,712,484.7 103,994.3
Consumo Colectivo
838,252.3
Exportaciones
962,380.9
142,542.4
649,391.4
653.1
Inversin
1,001,055.1
12,522.6
398,305.4 575,263.8
Variacin de Existencias
205,560.2
104,455.9
101,104.3
Discrepancia estadistica
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total Demanda
10,798,176.4
983,816.4 5,142,736.8 884,639.8
la produccin)
G/P
69,518.1
238,155.5
47,726.3
778,046.6
1,133,446.6
G/P
4,115,842.7
67,675.7
143,563.1
-684,414.4
-43,897.0
3,598,770.0
188,213.4
0.0
3,786,983.4
1,133,446.6
1,630,527.4
838,252.3
169,794.0
14,963.3
0.0
3,786,983.4
Neto
547,738.7
990,912.5
404,336.4
2,658,863.6
4,601,851.2
Bruto
8,882,724.8
461,011.7
47,521.8
437,764.8
0.0
0.0
9,829,023.2
969,153.2
0.0
10,798,176.4
4,280,873.6
3,510,054.3
838,252.3
962,380.9
1,001,055.1
205,560.2
0.0
10,798,176.4
En millones de dlares
Impacto de una Devaluacin Real del 50% en las Cuentas Nacionales (Caso base sin aumento de la produccin)
Insumos
Caso base (millones de dlaes, valores
Bruto
corrientes)
Insumos
A+B
C+D
E+F
G/P
A+B
69,486.87
25,476.55
9,678.20
10,070.60
160.91
5,566.84
C+D
247,245.75 166,164.93 42,205.65
99,545.26
5,343.11
19,070.91
E+F
66,494.78
33,971.69
22.93
29,077.89
1,049.06
3,821.81
G/P
330,379.03 116,563.22
884.52
43,517.48
9,857.18
62,304.05
Valor Agregado Bruto a Precios Bsicos
713,606.42 342,176.39 52,791.30 182,211.22 16,410.26
90,763.61
(millones de dlares corrientes)
Bruto
A+B
C+D
E+F
G/P
Valor Agregado Bruto a Precios Bsicos
713,606.42
69,486.87 247,245.75 66,494.78 330,379.03
Impuestos a los productos
37,080.80
3,663.67
27,004.30
982.28
5,432.33
Derechos de importacin
3,826.22
8.81
3,817.41
IVA
35,189.73
711.76
19,641.17
3,317.28
11,523.82
Margen de Comercio
-0.00
4,223.65
50,789.65
-55,013.30
Margen de Transporte
0.00
129.90
3,398.83
-3,528.74
Oferta Domstica a Precios de Mercado
789,703.18
78,224.66 351,897.11 70,794.33 288,793.14
Importaciones
75,431.87
637.63
60,057.86
115.36
14,621.02
Discrepancia estadistica
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total Oferta
865,135.05
78,862.29 411,954.97 70,909.69 303,414.16
Consumo intermedio
342,230.25
52,791.30 182,211.22 16,410.26
90,763.61
Consumo Individual
280,730.78
5,027.74 136,245.96
8,334.46 130,301.81
Consumo Colectivo
67,125.17
67,125.17
Exportaciones
79,395.25
11,704.17
53,611.74
54.00
14,025.34
Inversin
80,130.98
999.75
31,811.21 46,110.97
1,198.23
Variacin de Existencias
16,414.39
8,339.33
8,074.84
Discrepancia estadistica
-891.77
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total Demanda
865,135.05
78,862.29 411,954.97 70,909.69 303,414.16
Neto
44,010.32
81,080.82
32,523.09
213,815.80
371,430.03
Bruto
713,606.42
37,082.58
3,826.22
35,194.02
-0.00
0.00
789,709.24
75,431.87
0.00
865,141.11
342,176.39
279,909.97
67,125.17
79,395.25
80,120.16
16,414.17
0.00
865,141.11
Neto
10.02%
-13.16%
-33.29%
-33.32%
-26.12%
Bruto
-22.24%
-15.49%
0.00%
-21.94%
-21.85%
0.00%
-20.33%
-17.54%
-25.63%
-30.35%
0.00%
-20.82%
-6.95%
-20.33%
Comercio Exterior
Exportaciones Importaciones
Que Conviene?
1996
109.75
107.27
107.80
115.00
104.63 exportar
importar
1997
110.19
106.23
106.49
111.26
103.20 exportar
importar
1998
106.80
103.22
103.08
98.67
97.02 no exportar importar
1999
102.85
99.55
98.93
88.98
93.78 no exportar importar
2000
107.25
103.26
102.58
98.67
95.35 no exportar importar
2001
104.82
100.96
100.49
93.94
92.27 no exportar importar
2002
57.18
55.99
56.83
90.34
87.53 exportar no importar
2003
72.97
71.91
72.77
100.61
89.63 exportar no importar
2004
78.73
77.54
78.46
115.87
96.61 exportar no importar
2005
86.35
85.20
85.65
121.26
104.34 exportar no importar
2006
90.81
89.89
90.36
133.65
110.08 exportar no importar
2007
98.57
98.63
99.65
151.29
117.56 exportar no importar
2008
109.45
110.99
112.58
191.30
132.50 exportar no importar
2009
99.76
100.54
101.33
170.76
117.36 exportar no importar
2010
109.27
110.56
111.09
184.65
122.64 exportar no importar
2011
117.05
119.07
119.96
219.03
131.39 exportar no importar
2012
120.24
122.32
123.46
224.14
129.60 exportar no importar
2013
113.85
116.87
118.16
220.42
136.30 exportar no importar
2014
96.86
99.38
100.50
215.46
136.55 exportar no importar
2015 (1H)
98.47
99.58
99.67
186.89
124.63 exportar no importar
ltimo dato disponible (precios del comercio exterior)
IPIM = Precios Internos al Por Mayor; IPIB = Precios Internos Bsicos al Por Mayor; IPP = Precios Bsicos del
Productor
Productos Nacionales en US$
Comercio Exterior
Que Conviene?
1993=100
IPIM
IPIB
IPP
Exportaciones Importaciones
1996Q1
107.95
1996Q2
110.28
1996Q3
110.04
1996Q4
110.72
1997Q1
110.51
1997Q2
110.05
1997Q3
110.12
1997Q4
110.08
1998Q1
108.22
1998Q2
108.19
1998Q3
107.01
1998Q4
103.77
1999Q1
101.65
1999Q2
102.63
1999Q3
103.29
1999Q4
103.83
2000Q1
106.21
2000Q2
106.55
2000Q3
107.89
2000Q4
108.35
2001Q1
106.75
2001Q2
106.04
2001Q3
104.83
2001Q4
101.67
2002Q1
56.64
2002Q2
53.50
2002Q3
57.87
2002Q4
60.70
2003Q1
68.38
2003Q2
74.37
2003Q3
73.98
2003Q4
75.17
2004Q1
76.70
2004Q2
78.75
2004Q3
79.01
2004Q4
80.47
2005Q1
81.95
2005Q2
85.94
2005Q3
88.75
2005Q4
88.75
2006Q1
88.87
2006Q2
90.55
2006Q3
91.46
2006Q4
92.35
2007Q1
93.12
2007Q2
97.43
2007Q3
100.59
2007Q4
103.14
2008Q1
105.46
2008Q2
109.94
2008Q3
115.60
2008Q4
106.80
2009Q1
100.77
2009Q2
97.87
2009Q3
98.40
2009Q4
102.00
2010Q1
105.60
2010Q2
108.03
2010Q3
110.54
2010Q4
112.92
2011Q1
114.95
2011Q2
116.55
2011Q3
117.86
2011Q4
118.84
2012Q1
120.07
2012Q2
121.06
2012Q3
120.46
2012Q4
119.36
2013Q1
117.82
2013Q2
116.43
2013Q3
113.18
2013Q4
107.98
2014Q1
94.91
2014Q2
96.00
2014Q3
97.69
2014Q4
98.86
2015Q1
98.47
2015Q2
98.47
2015Q3
99.47
2015Q4
ltimo dato trimestral disponible
105.89
108.29
108.04
106.86
106.55
106.09
106.16
106.11
104.23
104.20
103.92
100.54
98.33
99.33
100.01
100.52
102.16
102.53
103.90
104.44
102.91
102.39
101.10
97.44
54.77
52.28
56.82
60.08
67.64
73.25
72.73
74.02
75.58
77.58
77.80
79.20
80.60
84.66
87.57
87.98
87.88
89.59
90.54
91.54
92.35
96.74
101.00
104.42
107.81
112.10
117.14
106.93
101.28
98.73
99.18
102.99
106.61
108.78
111.74
115.09
117.45
118.59
119.83
120.41
121.76
122.93
122.80
121.80
120.11
119.21
116.89
111.26
98.19
98.99
99.88
100.48
99.85
99.31
100.34
106.44
109.00
108.49
107.29
106.39
106.57
106.35
106.64
104.47
104.02
103.48
100.35
97.83
98.57
99.34
99.98
101.67
101.84
103.03
103.78
102.25
101.59
100.80
97.31
55.10
53.06
57.95
61.22
68.53
74.00
73.35
75.21
76.94
78.77
78.36
79.75
81.13
85.14
88.02
88.32
88.20
89.97
90.93
92.34
93.11
97.39
102.05
106.03
109.81
114.44
118.70
107.37
101.68
99.70
100.06
103.86
107.09
108.94
112.24
116.08
118.68
119.53
120.66
120.96
122.48
123.79
124.25
123.33
121.37
120.45
118.27
112.56
99.74
100.46
100.75
101.04
100.13
99.21
100.11
109.43
118.71
117.90
113.95
112.91
113.14
110.70
108.27
101.54
101.31
97.13
94.69
86.57
87.03
88.66
93.65
97.48
96.66
99.68
100.84
100.26
92.83
93.99
88.66
87.15
87.61
92.60
93.99
100.96
97.48
99.10
104.90
114.19
118.94
115.11
115.23
114.53
118.13
124.86
127.53
128.81
131.01
135.89
138.90
143.78
143.08
149.23
169.07
192.86
193.10
202.38
176.85
161.42
168.73
174.18
178.71
183.81
175.57
180.79
198.43
214.91
221.06
221.64
218.51
220.13
224.66
226.98
224.78
225.36
225.36
218.39
212.59
219.55
226.52
214.33
201.45
192.28
181.49
108.79
103.46
101.14
105.11
105.98
102.98
101.53
102.30
100.65
97.36
95.23
94.84
94.65
92.90
93.29
94.26
97.07
95.52
93.68
95.13
95.42
93.78
90.77
89.13
91.45
85.54
86.51
86.61
89.32
89.13
89.03
91.06
92.61
96.00
98.52
99.30
102.20
105.11
104.53
105.50
107.73
109.18
111.70
111.70
112.57
116.15
121.68
119.84
122.84
137.47
141.92
127.78
116.93
119.06
117.90
115.57
118.87
125.65
123.61
122.45
127.78
135.92
134.66
127.20
126.33
139.89
128.26
123.90
132.33
144.25
134.95
133.69
137.08
139.60
134.95
134.56
123.13
126.13
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