How to save $22-32 million in wasteful

legacy infrastructure capital expenditures:

Plan B for Brunswick

inspired by

Plan A for Auburn

Pem Schaeffer
Brunswick
November 4, 2015
(ver:12 noon/Tuesday 3 Nov)

pcs 3 Nov 15

Bottom Line Takeaways

Spending $22-32 million on infrastructure improvements to service the needs of 34

Downeaster round trippers per day is outrageous, wasteful, unjustifiable, an abuse of
public resources, and entirely avoidable
Brunswick extension generates 6-7% of ridership, and 7-8% of operating revenue;
pro-rata share of annual subsidy is $75,000 per month
Average of 17 R/T riders per train
Memories of MTA and MSHA troubles come to mind
On top of $38.5M in capital expenditures to date, total capital project expense for
under 30 miles and less than 10% of ridership will equal capital expense for entire
Portland to Boston service of 120 miles that handles more than 90% of ridership
demand
Auburns Great Falls Plaza transit evolution suggests a far better, more flexible, more
affordable, more capable way to service the Brunswick region, without irreversibly
sinking huge sums into extraordinarily wasteful & speculative projects
Brunswick ideally equipped and situated to make it work

Brunswick ideally positioned for immediate action; MLF construction should be

suspended while Plan B alternative is fully scoped out; scarce transportation
dollars can be put to far, far better use on critical infrastructure needs.
pcs 3 Nov 15

Recent Discoveries:
Misrepresentation, Waste, and Abuse

Wildly exaggerated economic benefit projections in funded studies by big city, out of
state consultants supposedly expert in Transit Oriented Development
Unanswered questions re: relationship/funding of TrainRiders Northeast
$70 million plus in taxpayer funds spent on initiating service between Boston and
Portland (not including local $)
$38 million plus in taxpayer funds spent to initiate service between Portland and
Brunswick (not including local $)
Immediate plans to spend $32 million more ($14M for MLF; $8M for Royal Jct
Siding; $10M for Portland Wye)
Total planned expenditure for Brunswick extension ~ $70 million, same as spent on
initial Boston to Portland service, to cater to less than 10% of ridership/less than 10%
of operating revenue!
Ill-conceived & misrepresented plans consuming scarce transportation $ needed for
burgeoning infrastructure repairs that serve the many, not the few

Takeaway: NNEPRA structural and behavioral model is eerily

reminiscent of previous MTA and MSHA scandal circumstances.
pcs 3 Nov 15

NNEPRA Budget Trends Cause Great Concern

(page 11 of http://www.amtrakdowneaster.com/sites/default/files/052615%20%20-%20%20Board%20Materials%20May%2026,%202015.pdf)

Operating revenue & expense comparisons (FY16 Budget/FY15 Budget):

Ticket revenue: $8.32M/$8.62M; -3.5%
Total operating revenues: $9.66M/$9.84M; -1.8%
Professional services: $102.7K/32.0K; +222%
Amtrak operations: $13.50M/$11.55M; +17%
Total capital and operating expenses: $22.58M/$20.62M; +9.5%
Additional funding required comparisons (FY16 Budget/FY15 Actuals)
FTA/CMAQ: $3.82M/$1.59M; +140%
State match: $2.57M/$2.08M; +23.6%
Total additional funding required: $12.92M/$10.45; +23.6%
Takeaway: Dismal operating profile, unsustainable trend lines, and huge
capital project demands evidence reality that passenger rail is not viable
in general, and especially in largely rural Maine.
Political force fits are a recipe for disaster.
pcs 3 Nov 15

Situation Update

Brunswick Downeaster service: two revenue round trips per day to Portland since inception in
December 2012
Average ridership 34 round trip/day, less than one full motor coach (bus)
Service includes Freeport stop; planned Metro-Bus Freeport/Portland service will reduce
ridership there
NNEPRA ED Quinn states goal is to increase Portland-Brunswick service to 6 round trips per day
(five to Boston)
No objective evidence for increasing service to/from Brunswick
Take on faith: build it and they will come; prior grandiose projections have proven appallingly
inaccurate
Terrible justification for speculating with scarce taxpayer funds
Brunswick MLF construction just initiated, though appeals to BEP pending, and OPEGA audit about
to get underway
$14 million cost, up from initial estimate of $4 million
Rationale: increased round trip service impossible without facility
Service expansion also requires $8.5 million for Royal Junction siding project; funding applied
for via TIGER program; apparently denied
Concord Coach has been serving Brunswick for decades

Takeaway: Brunswick service expansion underway requires $22 million plus in

capital infrastructure upgrades (Portland Wye not included; $10M more)
pcs 3 Nov 15

Projected Post-MLF Operating Premise Is Flawed

No reason repositioning runs operating now at start and end of day could not be revenue runs; 6 am train from PTC to BRK
leaves after first train to Boston; 9 pm run to PTC could carry BRK visitors returning home at end of day
Criss-cross of runs 2 & 3 above impossible without $8M Royal Jct siding
Blue train operates 6 hours/day; should be eliminated in favor of existing/added bus service; could reduce annual
operating deficit by $5 million
Brunswick Facility seriously over-designed; no case where 3 trains would be there at same time; eliminating Blue train
limits presence to one train set and single bay maintenance need, if any at all
Eleven years operating in Portland without indoor facility, servicing vast majority of ridership; building massively expensive
facility now in Brunswick to service less than 10% of ridership is unwarranted and irresponsible
What about changes in crew deployment/transport?
Clip is from July 2014 NNEPRA Presentation to Brunswick Layover Advisory Group (town council)
pcs 3 Nov 15

Modifying Downeaster Service to Brunswick/Freeport

Downeaster began running in December 2001

All train servicing done in Portland since inception
Service expansion to Freeport/Brunswick began December 2012
Currently 3 R/Ts per day, one run in each direction is labeled non-revenue for PR
purposes
Brunswick averages 34 R/T riders per day, or 17 per R/T; less than one bus-full total
Freeport averages 10 R/T riders per day, or 5 per R/T
Scheduled to get Metro-Bus Service to points south
Recommendation:
Reduce Brunswick service to one R/T per day; morning run Southbound, evening
run Northbound; overnight train set at Brunswick Station with relocated APU set
up.
Operate second R/T per day only if ridership demand evident
All train maintenance continues at Portland location; shed can be built with
reserved Brunswick funds if found necessary
Proposed expanded bus service more than offsets loss of one train R/T

Takeaway: Major capital and operating savings possible with no

compromise of services to Brunswick/area ridership.
pcs 3 Nov 15

Looking at Successes Nearby

L/A passenger rail expansion much

advocated; $107 to $230 million in
capital costs involved
Recently announced Inter-City bus
service between Auburn and
Portland provides model for
substantial cost savings, and
improved service for Brunswick area
Brunswick is service community for
Topsham, Bath, and surrounding vicinity
Both well connected to Brunswick
via US 1 and I-295 Bypass connector

Takeaway: Its obvious that same set of considerations leading to

unveiling of Auburn proposal should be applied to and tested for
Brunswick circumstances.
Potential savings: $30 million range.
pcs 3 Nov 15

The Landscape

I-295

Merrymeeting
Plaza

Rte 1 Bypass/
196 Connector

Topsham

Rte 1 to
Bath

Brunswick
Station

Bowdoin
College

Brunswick
Landing

pcs 3 Nov 15

BEX

Cooks Corner
Mall

Brunswick Suitability for Plan B

Concord Coach serving Brunswick since well before Downeaster inception

Physical location close to I-295 and US 1, including bypass, and Topsham and Bath
population centers, is ideal for Park and Ride operation as now getting under way
in Auburn
Three immediately available locations, each with vacant space for Station
operation:
Merrymeeting Plaza: high vacancy rate, ample parking, ready access
Cooks Corner Mall: high vacancy rate, ample parking, ready access
Brunswick Landing: ample parking, ready access, tie in to General Aviation
airport operation. Multi-modal attraction.
Tie-in to Brunswick Explorer hourly loops for feeder connection is perfect option
Possible route: depart Park & Ride; Bowdoin College; Brunswick Station
Head south either via Exit 28, or Exit 31
Takeaway: To all but most rabid passenger rail zealots, this seems
like a no-brainer.
pcs 3 Nov 15

10

Current Concord Coach Coastal Route Service

Takeaway: Near perfect, existing alternate to the underused third Amtrak train set; should save millions in
Amtrak operations costs (More than $13.5M for FY 16)
pcs 3 Nov 15

11

Park & Ride Location Candidates

pcs 3 Nov 15

12

Feeder Service Ready to Go

pcs 3 Nov 15

13

Requested Actions

Immediately suspend all construction related activity on Brunswick Layover Facility

Rigorously identify funding amounts and location; place hold orders
BEP Appeal Process yet to play out; OPEGA audit barely underway
Convene cognizant/relevant parties to examine the circumstances and propose
rapid response approach
MDOT; MRRA; Concord Coach (others?); Brunswick TM; Governors Office
Assign point person
Draft quick reaction plan; prepare ROM pricing
Structure RFP (see Auburn?)
Socialize the idea?
Takeaway: This alternative is simply too obvious and too beneficial to
ignore; especially in view of urgent road/bridge repair needs.

pcs 3 Nov 15

14

Addendum: NNEPRA Budgetary Highlights

http://www.amtrakdowneaster.com/sites/default/files/052615%20%20-%20%20Board%20Materials%20May%2026,%202015.pdf
pcs 3 Nov 15

15

Projected Operating Budget FY 2016

pcs 3 Nov 15

16