The Adaptation of Itu-T Forecasting Rules To The Countries Under Special Circumstances

Accession number:
ANO
Identification number:
INO
Document type:
DT
Type of record:
TR
Contents code:
CC
Author:
AU
Menthor/Comenthor
MN
Title:
TI
Language of text:
LT
Language of abstract:
LA
Country of publication:
CP
Locality of publication:
LP
Publication year:
PY
Publisher:
PU
Publication Place:
PP
Physical description:
(chapters/pages/ref./tables/pictures/graphs/
appendixes)
PD
Scientific field:
SF
Scientific discipline:
SD
Subject/Key words:
SKW
UC
Holding data:
HD
Note:
N
Monographic
Printed
Doctor thesis
Konstantinos Papamargaritis
Prof. Dr Vladimir Kovaevi
The adaptation of ITU-T forecasting
rules to the countries under special
circumstances
English
English
Yugoslavia
Vojvodina
2002
Faculty of Technical Sciences
21000 Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja
Obradovia
3/144/41/26/0/30/0
Electrical Engineering
Communication networking
Telecommunications, forecasting,
demand, traffic, ISDN, refugees, ITU-T
methodology
The Library of the Faculty of Technical

Sciences
Abstract:
A
Accepted by the Scientific Board on:

ASB
Defended on:
DE
Thesis defend board:
DB
President:
Member:
Member:
Member:
Member:
In this thesis the ITU-T methodology of

subscriber, traffic and ISDN forecasting
rules are adapted to countries exiting
from war and the influence of refugees is
examined.
13/4/2002
Prof. Dr Vladimir Kovaevi

Prof. Dr Slavko Svirevi
Prof. Dr Nemad Simi
Prof. Dr Zarko Markov
Prof. Dr Miroslav Popovi
UNIVERSITY OF NOVI SAD

FACULTY OF TECHNICAL SCIENCES COMPUTER CONTROL &
MEASUREMENTS INSTITUTE
THE ADAPTATION OF ITU-T FORECASTING RULES

TO THE COUNTRIES UNDER SPECIAL
CIRCUMSTANCES
DOCTOR THESIS
K. PAPAMARGARITIS
NOVI SAD 2002
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The present thesis was carried-out in the period November 1999 to July 2002, under
the supervision of the Faculty of Technical Sciences Computer Control &
Measurements Institute of the University of Novi Sad.
I would like to express my gratitude to the members of the Thesis Defend Board. Prof.
Dr Vladimir Kovaevi was my Menthor, his support was a key factor for carryingout my task. This thesis wouldnt have been realized without the ideas, the
supervision and the encouragement of prof. Dr Slavko Svirevi. His experience and
his confidence were crucial for this work. Profs. Dr Zarko Markov and Miroslav
Popovi have greatly contributed with remarks and suggestions.
Moreover, I would like to express my gratitude to some of my colleagues. First of all I
would like to thank Mr. Slobodan Karisik of Telecom Srbja for guiding me in the
Republic in difficult hours for its population. During the years he proved to be a
precious friend. The guidance in the PTT of the Republic had been realised under
the supervision and with the help of Mr. Radovan Kovaevi, General Director of
PTT Republic, his hospitality has deeply touched me.
Slobodan Luki, Miladin Markovi, Milenko Jovii and Stevo Kovaevi, colleagues
of PTT Republic have worked with me in collecting telecommunication data under
extremely difficult circumstances in a network that suffered damages from the war. In
a very short period they managed to rehabilitate this network. I am honoured by their
friendship.
All the demographic data concerning the Republic were kindly supplied by prof. Dr
Vladimir Luki of the University of Banja Luka. I want to thank him for the effort he
put, but most of all for his warm hospitality and the discussions we had.
My colleagues in OTE (Department of Switching Maintenance) created the necessary
conditions to help me realize the present thesis. Especially, I would like to thank Dr.
Spyros Alexiou for his assistance in the software I used and for valuable remarks.
Last, but not least I would like to thank my wife, Dr. Eleni Dara Research Director of
Academy of Athens, for her help and encouragement during the whole trip of the
present thesis.
CONTENTS
Page
1.
1.1
INTRODUCTION
PREFACE
1.1.1
Purpose of the Present Forecasting
10
1.1.2
Plans
11
1.1.2.1
Technical Plans
12
1.1.2.2
Financial Plans
14
DESCRIPTION of FORECASTING METHODS
14
Basic Concepts of Forecasting
15
Networks Development versus Time
15
1.2.1.1.1
Starting Phase
15
1.2.1.1.2
Rapid Growth Phase
17
1.2.1.1.3
Saturation Phase
17
1.2.1.2
Economic Factors Influencing Telephone Density
17
1.2.1.3
Separation of Demand in Business and Residential
20
1.2.1.4
Localization of Demand
21
Forecasting Techniques
21
1.2.2.1
Mathematical Models
22
1.2.2.2
Time Series Models
24
1.2.2.2.1
Analysis of Historical Data
24
1.2.2.2.2
Analysis of Future Trends
26
Econometric Models
26
Influencing Factors
29
1.2.3
Subscriber Demand Forecasting
32
1.2.4
Traffic Forecasting
33
Theoretical Analysis of Traffic Forecasting
35
1.2.4.1.1
Exchange Traffic Forecasting
35
1.2.4.1.2
Analysis of Initial Data
35
1.2.4.1.3
Evolution of Calling Rates
35
1.2.4.1.4
Aggregation of Calling Rates on the Parent Exchanges
36
Inter-Exchange Traffic Matrices
36
Analysis of Initial Data
37
1.2
1.2.1
1.2.1.1
1.2.2
1.2.2.3
1.2.2.3.1
1.2.4.1
1.2.4.2
1.2.4.2.1
1.2.4.2.2
Setting-up of the Initial Point-to-point Traffic Matrix
37
1.2.4.2.3
Elementary Traffic Variables
38
1.2.4.4
International Traffic Forecast
39
1.2.4.5
Considerations of Traffic Models
40
1.2.4.5.1
Estimation of Traffic Offered
41
1.2.4.5.2
24-hour Traffic Profiles
42
1.2.4.5.3
Busy Hour
43
1.2.5
Overcoming Lack of Usable Data
43
1.2.6
ISDN Forecasting
43
SUBSCRIBER DEMAND, TRAFFIC AND ISDN

FORECASTING METHODOLOGY
45
2.1
EXISTING SITUATION
45
2.2
METHODOLOGY of SUBSCRIBER DEMAND

FORECASTING
54
2.2.1
Examination of Historical Data
54
2.2.2
Identification of Saturation Level
55
2.2.3
Residential Subscriber Forecasting
56
2.2.3.1
Population Estimation per Terminal Exchange Area
56
2.2.3.2
Estimation of the Number of Households
58
2.2.3.3
Estimation of Residential Subscribers
60
Business Subscriber Forecasting
61
2.2.4.1
Estimation of Business Subscriber Growth Rate
61
2.2.4.2
Estimation of Business Subscribers
61
Total Subscriber Forecasting
63
METHODOLOGY of TRAFFIC FORECASTING
72
2.3.1
List of Existing Local Exchanges
72
2.3.2
Historical Traffic Data
72
2.3.3
Technique of Traffic Forecasting
73
2.3.3.1
Originating/terminating Traffic per Subscriber
74
2.3.3.2
Forecasting of Subscriber Traffic per Terminal Exchange
82
2.3.3.3
Estimation of Traffic Distribution
91
2.3.3.4
Forecasting of Internal and Local Traffic
93
2.3.3.5
Forecasting of Long-distance Traffic
94
2.3.3.6
Forecasting of International Traffic
2.
2.2.4
2.2.5
2.3.
103
2.3.3.6.1
Growth of International Traffic
103
2.3.3.6.2
Technique of International Traffic Forecasting
103
2.3.3.6.3
International Traffic with Specific Countries
104
Circuit Forecasting
105
METHODOLOGY of ISDN FORECASTING
106
2.4.1
Key factors
106
2.4.2
ISDN Demand Forecast
110
2.4.3
ISDN Traffic forecast
113
2.4.4
ISDN Switching Plan
113
THE INFLUENCE of REFUGEES
114
3.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
117
3.1
RESULTS from SUBSCRIBER FORECASTING
118
3.2
RESULTS from TRAFFIC FORECASTING
121
3.3
RESULTS from ISDN DEMAND FORECASTING
122
3.4
CONCLUTIONS on the INFLUENCE of REFUGEES
123
3.4.1
The Influence of Refugees on Subscriber Demand
123
3.4.1.1
The all stay case
124
3.4.1.2
The all leave case
124
3.4.1.3
The Exponential case
125
3.4.1.4
Comparison of all stay, all leave and exponential cases
127
3.4.1.5
Combined all stay and Pareto case
128
3.4.2
The Influence of Refugees on Traffic Demand
135
3.4.3
The Influence of Refugees on ISDN and New Services
135
3.4.4
The Influence of Refugees on Exchange Performance
136
3.5
CONCLUSIONS
138
2.3.4
2.4
2.5
THE ADAPTATION OF ITU-T FORECASTING RULES TO THE COUNTRIES UNDER SPECIAL CIRCUMSTANCES
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 PREFACE
A well prepared forecasting, i.e. a prediction for the future, is a necessary condition
for a successful and economic operation of a telephone network. The objective of
forecasting is to provide a basis for planning, which in turn will lead the right
programming for the proper activities. The boundary lines between forecasting,
planning and programming are in practice often vague.
The objective of planning is the allocation of resources and the realization of an
adequate telecommunication network. Forecasting is a necessary basis of almost every
decision. The results of forecasting are applied to different projects, the feasibility of
which is analysed in the pre-investment work. In this process it is important to ensure
that investment decisions for the implementation of the telecommunication projects
will be based on an as rigorous as possible economical analysis, to avoid pitfalls of
over-investment or under-investment. Programming is a description of the actions
derived from plans that have been decided.
Interdependence exists between telecommunication facilities and economic
development in every country or society all over the world. Thus, it is necessary to
reach a certain economic level before a demand for telephones arises; on the other
hand, certain basic telecommunication facilities are necessary for further economic
development of a country. All these investments are important for the economical
development of a country.
The development of the telephone service requires the provision of customers
apparatus, line plant, exchange and transmission equipment to meet anticipated public
demand when and where it arises. The logistics of telecommunications provision are
such that there is always a considerable time-lag between the identification of a need
and the ability to meet that need; for instance the delay between the identification of a
need for a new telephone exchange and the cut over of that exchange. All
optimisations of the network extensions necessary to be carried out are based on
forecasting.
Forecasting always starts in practice with the identification of the subscribers
demand. The aim of subscriber forecasting is twofold. First of all, a considerable part
of the planning of a telecommunication network must be based directly on the
predicted subscriber distribution of the near and far future. However, the network
elements cannot be properly planned and dimensioned without the supply of reliable
subscriber forecasts, since these are important primary elements for traffic
forecasting. There are big differences between different subscriber classes, both
concerning the development of demand for services and the way of using these
services.
Sometimes the subscriber prediction represents the final forecast product required; in
other cases the subscriber forecast is just a necessary step in the traffic forecasting
process: but in most situations it plays both roles.
All these emphasize the importance of starting up the subscriber forecasting activity
by a careful selection of main strategies, and a choice of forecasting models and
methods that agree with these strategies and with the structure of the forecasting
problem and the available data.
A first subscriber-forecasting scheme may be very simple; with time and increased
experience from follow-up studies, the ideal degree of sophistication may be reached.
To be useful a forecasting must provide a specific level of accuracy over a specified
time period in the future. Both the required level of accuracy and the time period are
functions of the decision at hand. In general, short-term forecasts are more accurate
than long-term forecasts.
According to the ITU-T the method of forecasting telecommunication services for the
network involves several phases. Basic information has to be collected, reviewed,
scrutinized, evaluated and treated in such a way, that forecasting achieves the highest
possible accuracy.
One way of improving the final results, according to the ITU-T, is to try and reconcile
two or more completely separate forecasts, preferably based on different strategies.
1.1.1 Purpose of the Present Forecasting

The purpose of the present study is the adaptation of the ITU-T forecasting rules to
countries under special circumstances (e.g. in an after war situation). These countries
are in a special situation, with partially destroyed telecommunication network and war
refugees influencing the forecasting. From now on we will use the term Republic,
when we refer to such a country, and this will stand for a case study that will be
described in the following paragraphs.
We assume that PTT of the Republic was established during the war with the task to
co-ordinate the actions of the 9 semiautonomous regional PTT enterprises. During the
war period, PTT was responsible for the basic postal and telecommunication services.
Therefore, its present organization reflects the needs of the war period and is unable to
cope with the requirements of the peace period. As a result, there are no available data
in a systematic way, concerning the existing resources in the country, the financial
activities, the administrative information, like population and the telecommunications
network.
The total population is estimated (due to lack of statistical data) to about 1.150.000 in
a country with two distinct faces; a mountainous less developed in the EasternSouthern part and a plain more developed and urbanized Western-Northern part.
Unemployment and settlement of refugees are the most serious problems in the
Republic. We make certain assumptions, concerning topographic conditions, land,
10
water and mineral, as well as agriculture, pastoral, industrial, etc. activities. Moreover,
we make an estimate about training system, administrative regions and the economic
situation.
Demand forecasting for developing countries, with insufficient historical data of
development in the field of Telecommunications, is usually expressed by empirical
formulas, based on extrapolation of concrete parameters such as population, Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) and data related to exports and imports, etc.
The study of Demand Forecasting in a country just after a war is a special case
compared to similar studies for other developing countries. The telecommunications
in such a country are usually characterized by lack of historical or present data, fully
or partially destroyed infrastructure and a new population distribution.
In a country after a war, the population distribution (refugees, population in new
territories) varies significantly with the geographical areas as well as with time.
Refugees are considered as the major problem because, in the beginning, they are
mainly concentrated in specific areas (the financially strongest) but later on they
emigrate. As a result, at the end of the war there is a great difficulty in studying the
final inhabitant distribution, because the population has not been definitely settled and
the population distribution may have not been precisely recorded yet.
The data, used in the present study are supposed to come as information provided by
operating state agencies and PTT personnel and are considered as historical data
concerning the pre-war situation of the Former State of Republic. These data can be
considered as estimates of the present situation, as well as future estimates for
planning purposes.
The present thesis, carried out in the Faculty of Technical Sciences of the University
of Novi Sad, is an effort on the adaptation of the ITU-T forecasting rules to the
countries in a special, after war circumstances. These circumstances are characterized
by partially destroyed telecommunication network and the war refugees influence the
forecasting. Since they have some impact on demographic factors, it is necessary to
estimate how many of them will stay or leave the area we study. This forecasting may
be estimated in two ways. One way to examine the influence of refugees is the upper
and lower limit solution, i.e. the assumption that all war refugees stay in the
considered area or all of them leave and, thereafter, seek for the weighted average. A
second way is to assume some distribution, for example a negative exponential
distribution, as a function of the number of leaving refugees and the elapsed time. The
results of these two methods will be compared and the best will be adopted.
1.1.2 Plans
The existence of plans for a smooth development of telecommunication services is a
"sine qua non" for a financially, socially, politically and technically justified progress
of the telecommunication sector.
A prerequisite to any planning function is the understanding of what the Network
Operator expects to achieve under the existing conditions. These conditions are the
11
National economic factors, political factors and technical plans. Beyond the abovementioned political objectives, the planning must cover the Administration's policy
objectives and time frame (as described by ITU-T (10a) and (12a)) for:
- Policy Objectives
The Administration's objectives must be clearly chosen by defining the maximum
internal profitability and the need for expanded services. If the only objective is the
extension of service to as many subscribers as possible, the grade of service in the
network will deteriorate through congestion. This can affect the subscribers demand
for service negatively and consequently the Administration's revenues.
- Strategic Plans (Long Term)
Strategic plans provide conceptual and technological direction in the time period
covered as well as details and have a major impact on the evolution of the network in
the long term (up to 20 years).
- Fundamental Plans (Medium Term)
These plans provide direction for the expansion, modernization and development of
the network (up to 10 years) and usually they deal with smaller parts of the network
(e.g. exchange, transmission system, etc.).
- Implementation Plans (Short Term)
These provide site-specific direction to engineering/provisioning groups for a short
period (up to 3 years). Their primary purpose is the realization of specific changes in
the network by providing details on budget allocation, co-ordination and provisioning.
It is evident that the above plans are closely related to each other, since each of them
builds on the previous level. The long-term plans provide the overall objectives and
direction and thus are an important input to the medium and short term planning.
1.1.2.1 Technical Plans

As described by ITU-T (12b), telecommunication networks are highly dependent on
technology and therefore network planning must be based on technical plans, such as:
-Numbering Plans
They create a system of unique telephone numbers associated with individual
subscribers, facilitating billing, permitting automatic routing and offering convenience
to the subscriber.
-Switching Plans
They specify the capabilities required in each exchange in the network: traffic
capacities, routing, signalling, 2 or 4 wire analogue operation, digital operation,
charging, building, air conditioning and power supply.
12
-Transmission Plans
They allocate channels for speech and data. They also set the quality standards for
transmission by defining tolerable parameter values for attenuation, frequency and
phase distortion and noise.
-Routing Plans
They establish the principles to be implemented at each exchange to ensure an
economically justified use of the routes, while simultaneously they fulfil the quality of
service objectives.
-Signalling Plans
They describe in detail the signalling systems in use in the National network (these
systems are not standardized) and they assign an ITU-T (or national) signalling
system to each trunk group in the international network. They also describe the
analogue to digital signalling conversion for the national signalling.
-Access Network Plans
Beyond the basic telecommunication needs and to cover the needs of rural areas, they
describe the networks structure and requirements to enable modern services (ISDN,
data, etc.).
-ISDN and value-added Services
They define the technical specifications of the ISDN network and the value-added
services that are going to be offered to the subscribers.
-Synchronization Plans
They define the hierarchical structure of a digital network and set the standards of
frequency accuracy and stability, which determine the maximum tolerable slip rate in
the network.
-Network Management Plans
They define the objectives for availability and survivability and the means to achieve
them. They also present systematic methods for maintenance organization.
-Mobile Services Plans
They define the objectives for the application of mobile services like GSM, Paging,
Trunking, Civil aviation, etc. and they also define the requirements from the fixed
backbone network.
13
-Telex and Data Services

They define the offered data and telex services and their technical characteristics and
implementation procedures.
-Charging Plans
They describe the Administration's policy on how subscribers are billed for
telecommunication services, by taking into account distance, volume, duration, tariff
rates and social and financial factors.
1.1.2.2 Financial Plans

The economic aspects of network planning are examined in detail by ITU in ch VIII
of General Network Planning (10b).
A telecommunication network represents an enormous investment. For this reason,
financial planning plays a vital role in the development of telecommunications. The
most important factor, to start with, is an investment plan describing where, when and
what kind of equipment will be installed. The next step is to ascertain the amount of
money available for expenditure.
Once the available amount and its source have been defined, financial studies should
be carried out on the possible alternatives of capital allocation in order to find the
most attractive one. In these studies, information on engineering, purchasing,
installing, land acquisition, building, labor cost, maintenance, spare parts, test
equipment and support system are necessary.
Finally the availability of money should be examined in relation to the
implementation of the technical plans and especially of the charging and tariff plan.
1.2 DESCRIPTION of FORECASTING METHODS

The exploitation and the management of a telephone network must be future oriented.
This is the reason for which it is fundamental to make decisions based on forecasts
established on information, analysis and evaluations. To make valuable forecasts it is
necessary to have precise and complete information and to analyse the past and
present conditions.
The forecasts permit the creation of a plan of investments for the economic operation
of the installations, for the satisfaction of the demand and for the distribution (where
the investments are more urgent) of investments in order to achieve a reduced total
investment justified by the administration's finance. It should be noticed that, even
land purchase, buildings, power plant, air conditioning, etc. must be sized on the basis
of traffic information.
14
Calling rates have been accelerated for many years, and most probably they will
continue to increase. They may even be stimulated by new service offerings or may
change with new types of traffic, such as data services, etc. Trends of this kind should
also be taken into account when a forecast is done.
The cost of creating the forecasts is very small compared to the amounts invested in
the network. Thus it is technically and economically important that the forecasts are
made in the best possible way.
For the planning of subscribers, we must make forecasts on the number and the place
of all potential subscribers in a given area. For the planning of the circuit's network,
we must make forecasts on the traffic intensity considering the tariffication according
to the source and the destination of the calls.
All the important operations must be described in the global project of network's
development. Thus it is necessary to have forecasts and plans for long-term in a
chosen scenario. On the other hand, in order to realize punctual operations, it is
necessary to have forecasts and plans for short and medium terms.
It is always necessary to check how valid and reliable the forecast is. It is also
necessary to revise the short, medium and long-term forecasts so that the decisions
will always be coherent with the latest conditions in the network.
All known forecasting methods assume, for their validity, continuation of past
conditions. Thus they are unable to forecast the result of sudden events, which cause
discontinuities in the traffic growth curve such as tariff changes or additional
facilities, structural changes in the number of subscribers, changes in the mode of
operation, such as conversion from manual to automatic service, etc.
1.2.1 Basic Concepts of Forecasting

1.2.1.1 Networks Development versus Time
As can be seen from the "growth" (or S-curve) in the following fig. 1.1 (10c and 12c),
the network is not developing linearly with the time, but it passes three successive
phases. Each phase corresponds to different social and economic conditions.
1.2.1.1.1 Starting Phase

This is a slow-increase starting phase (10d and 12d), in which the demand mainly
results from business or state sectors. In this phase an elementary network is created,
which is fundamental for the financial development. The development of the number
of connections may be restricted by the lack of funds for the vast investment required
for the equipment of a telephone network. With only limited financial resources,
developing countries give priority to the more fundamental sectors, the ones that are
considered to be of greatest strategic importance such as heavy industry, energy,
transport, etc.
15
The demand for residential use is limited in this phase and the feeble distribution of
telephones reduces its use only between the owners. Telephone is a luxurious item for
the consumers, which have other basic priorities. Of course, in this phase the
Administration's revenue is insufficient. The growth curve shows here an exponential
trend (see par. 1.2.2.1).
Fig 1.1
Network development
16
1.2.1.1.2 Rapid Growth Phase

This is a phase of rapid growth (10e and 12e) due to a better economic development,
in which the importance of the telephone network increases. The business sector
demands a better quality of service and an indispensable infrastructure for its
development. In the residential sector, telephone becomes current equipment and the
increase in its distribution causes increase in its use too. Often in this phase there is
lack of telephone connections, because the demand is higher than the offer. For this
reason is important to make reliable forecasts so that will be no long delays for
connections, and thus the potential subscribers will not be discouraged. In this phase
the network takes its final form and erroneous forecasts may lead into expensive
errors in planning. The growth curve shows here a linear trend.
1.2.1.1.3 Saturation phase

This is a slow increase saturation phase (10f and 12f), which occurs when the
percentage of residential telephones becomes 80 - 90% (whereas in the less telephone
developed countries this proportion may be only 10 - 30%). This means that the
demand is balanced with the offer. The composition of the demand for connections
undergoes a change. It is no longer made up mainly of new residential requests but
becomes more diversified:
-
transfers become a significant part,

the residential demand becomes a demand for extra equipment such as for
weekend homes, second and third lines, new services etc.
the professional demand may be renewed by the development of service
industries whose occupation is information processing and which requires a
higher rate of telephone equipment per employee than do manufacturing
industries.
The growth curve shows here a logistic or Gompertz' trend (see par. 1.2.2.1). The
saturation level depends on the existence of competitive networks, like mobile ones
and usually ranges on a penetration of 60-70%.
1.2.1.2. Economic Factors Influencing Telephone Density

There are many economic factors influencing the demand for telephone services of
which two are the most important. Such factors are the Gross Domestic Product (10g),
expressing the general economic level of activity, and the level of telecommunication
prices compared with the general level of prices ("real price level").
By making an assumption for the economic development of the country, it becomes
possible to have a long term forecast for the telephone density. The obvious
relationship between telephone penetration and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
may be used as such an assumption. This method permits also comparisons between
various countries (see fig. 1.2 and 1.3). There are, however, significant deviations
from the fitted curve, which are mainly due to tariff variations (see par. 1.2.2.3.1
elasticity factors).
17
Fig. 1.2
Telephone penetration in relation with GDP
After studies conducted in a large number of countries under ITU, there has been
evidence that there is an accepted relation between the GDP per capita and the
telephone density. The results are depicted in figure 1.3.
18
Fig. 1.3
Evolution of telephone penetration in relation with GDP
This nomograph shows that the Telephone Density is related to the GDP according to
the formula:
Log Dt2 / Dt1 = a + blog(I2 / I1)
Where Dt1, Dt2 are the telephone densities in years t1 and t2, I1, I2 are the relative
GDP per capita, a is a constant and b is the density growth rate as a function of GDP.
The above formula also encounters the cost of basic telephony relative to the cost of
other services but in periods of economic crisis it does not provide precise results for
long term forecasting, without previous corrections and adjustments, which sometimes are difficult to be made.
In order to apply the above formula to studies of population, City Development
Planning and GDP must be taken into account. The drawback of this method is that
19
becomes very difficult due to floating exchange rates and in some cases their abrupt
changes.
In figure 1.4 the relation between the GDP per capita and the volume of traffic for the
European Community (E.C.) countries is depicted. In the following diagram the
interrelation of the two parameters is also shown. The precedence of the GDP increase
over the traffic volume becomes evident in this figure.
Fig. 1.4
Relation of GDP per capita and the volume of traffic for E.C. countries
1.2.1.3 Separation of Demand in Business and Residential

The demand of telephone services is caused by two sources: from individuals having
personal needs and from enterprises or state sector having economic or administrative
needs (10h).
In the initial phase, the residential users may need the telephone mainly for receiving
calls or for emergency. In general the residential demand appears during the phase of
fast increase. The growth of the demand of telephones per house or per family follows
a logistic law.
The business users demand to make calls in the consistent busy hours. The business
demand is caused by two factors: the increase of lines for each enterprise due to its
activity development and the increase of the number of enterprises due to economic
development.
20
The empirical evidence supports the separation of the two categories for forecasting
purposes. However, it is important to consider the relation between the subscriber's
category and its traffic intensity.
A further separation of these categories into more detailed subcategories will certainly
lead to more accurate forecasts but, in practice, it is difficult to obtain such data.
1.2.1.4 Localization of Demand

In order to make forecasts, we need socio-economic data (population, number of
residences, etc.) and telephone data (number of telephones per subscriber category,
number of lines, etc.) for small geographical areas (10i). These two categories of data
impose two different distributions of demand. The distribution of demand, according
to socio-economic data, as well as the distribution of demand, according to telephone
data they never coincide. For example, in an exchange area the administrative
distribution corresponds to communities and the telephone distribution to the zones of
network distribution. Thus, it is necessary to superimpose those two distributions and
to go into a finer level of distribution.
There are two methods available for demand forecasting (10j). In the first method, we
make extremely detailed local forecasts and then we combine them to obtain a global
forecast. This is the ascending or detailed or bottom-up method. In the second
method, we fix the objectives on national or regional level by setting a territorial
volume or telephone density to be achieved at the n-th year. Then we cut these
objectives in pieces for each detailed geographical zone. This is the descending or
overall or top-down method. A comparison between and an adjustment
(reconciliation) of the two methods give good results and is recommended by ITU-T.
1.2.2 Forecasting Techniques

The dimensioning and the development of a network are realized on the basis of
forecasting the subscriber's and traffic demand. For economical reasons, the
conversation times may also be foreseen.
In the following paragraphs some mathematical models and examples of techniques
for traffic and subscriber demand forecasting are given. The adoption of the
mathematical model, which fits best to the development situation of the country, is
practically a subject of the forecaster's experience.
The quantitative forecasting models, according to ITU-T (12g) are divided in two
categories: time series and econometric models.
Time series models describe the evolution of a variable over the time (12h). Time
series data may be on a daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly or annual basis. In a time
series model the past behaviour of data is examined and used to infer something about
its future behaviour.
21
An econometric model is a quantitive relation between a dependent variable and a

number of independent variables (10k). Econometric models refer to causal
relationships, which can be described by a set of mathematical equations, relating one
variable to a number of other socio-economic variables. Provided data are available,
the measurement of this causal relationship is possible. In the case of
telecommunication demand, the most common used such variables are for instance:
gross national product, charge index for calls, etc.
For short-term forecast, a time series model may be more suitable. This is the case of
countries in which there is a substantial penetration rate and the eventual trend is
stable. However, for countries with low penetration, the use of an econometric model
is likely to be more suitable.
For long-term forecasts, econometric models are more reliable, usually including a
saturation part.
An orderly approach to subscribers and traffic forecasting will minimize the effort and
ensure that the final result represents the best possible judgment (2a). The following
steps are inherent in the forecasting process:
-
Analysis of historical data,

Analysis of future trends based on the historical trends,
Selection of the planning base,
Determination of future traffic rates, volumes and distribution,
Calculation of equipment and trunk quantities,
Other considerations, such as network requirements.
1.2.2.1 Mathematical Models

The above-mentioned mathematical models represent the most often used models and
have, since many years, been applied by various Administrations. In the following a
list of models (18a) for the growth function is given.
1. Linear trend:
y = a + bt
1. Parabolic
y = a + bt + ct2
3. Exponential trend:
y = aebt
4. Logistic function:
Ysat
y=
1 + aebt
22
5. Logistic function with a basic value:

Ysat - y(b)
y = y(b) +
1 + e-c(x-xo)
6. Exponential logistic function:
Ysat
y=
{1 + e-c(x-xo)}1/m
7. Extended logistic function:
Ysat
y=
{1 + e -[arsinh(rx)]/r}1/m
8. Gompertz's function:
y = Ysat (a)bt
9. Density or Accumulated distribution function:
100
y=
1 + eaxb
10. Exponential Density or Accumulated distribution function:

100
y=
{1 + eaxb}c
where:
y = subscriber or traffic demand,
Ysat = a parameter describing the saturation level,
a, b, c = parameters
In the following paragraphs some examples of forecasting techniques for subscriber
demand are given. These techniques equally apply for traffic forecasting. It should be
noticed that these are not the only existing mathematical models. Simply, they are the
less complex. The essential task is to adopt the mathematical model that fits better to
the development situation of the country.
23
1.2.2.2 Time Series Models

These models are based on the assumption that there is a complete or at least very
close relation between the present and the future. In other words, this strategy assumes
that the present conditions or actions determine to a great degree the future outcome.
Therefore, it is worthy to analyse the present very carefully in order to calculate the
future conditions.
The time series analysis method requires historical data for a period of the same size
as the period to be forecasted. If such data are not available time series analysis
cannot be applied. The actual model can be developed from, or tested against, past
data.
1.2.2.2.1 Analysis of Historical Data

The existing traffic records reveal past trends for an existing network, exchange or
trunk group (2b). Although the future will be affected by other factors and past trends
may change, these records are a major source of information. While examining these
data, an effort should be made to establish the approximate type of trend that exists.
For example, is the growth a straight line (as in the case of the same volume increase
per year) or is exponential (as in the case of a constant percentage increase per year)
or is fluctuating between the above trends due to discontinuities, economic conditions
or other factors? Even if more sophisticated mathematical methods are going to be
used a preliminary examination of the data is advisable, because usually situations
that upset the statistical trend are revealed.
Records of several years or more are desirable. However, these are rarely available
without discontinuities or other defects. If inadequate data from a lesser period exist
they may be used, but only to the justified extend. If historical data lack or are
unusable, a good judgement upon more generalized knowledge of similar exchanges
or situations should be used. It may even be justifiable to omit the evaluation of any
historical data and place added emphasis on future trends to establish the best possible
forecasting.
Table 1.1 presents busy season, busy hour traffic for a hypothetical exchange, which
may be used as an example to demonstrate data analysis in time series techniques.
24
Table 1.1
Example of time series
ORIGINATING TRAFFIC
TOLL TRAFFIC
Year
Erl
Annual
Increase
Percent
Traffic
Erl
Annual
Increase
Percent
Traffic
1.60
0.150
1.65
0.05
0.031
0.179
0.029
0.193
1.70
0.05
0.030
0.195
0.016
0.089
1.75
0.05
0.029
0.212
0.017
0.087
1.86
0.11
0.063
0.231
0.019
0.090
1.90
0.04
0.022
0.252
0.021
0.091
1.97
0.07
0.37
0.275
0.023
0.091
2.03
0.06
0.032
0.299
0.024
0.087
2.08
0.05
0.025
0.326
0.026
0.090
10
2.14
0.06
0.029
0.356
0.030
0.092
The following may be concluded from an examination of the data of table 1.1:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
The annual increase in originating traffic fluctuates - the highest increase 0.11 is
followed by the lowest increase 0.04, and these have an average 0.075. This
type of fluctuation may result from economic conditions.
The annual increase for originating traffic averages 0.054 and the individual
years are generally close to this average. Therefore, a straight-line relationship
is suggested.
Comparing the last three increases (average 0.057) with the first three (average
0.050) reveals a slightly higher rate of growth that deviates from the straightline concept.
The percentage growth of originating traffic fluctuates considerably, but appears
to have a declining trend. This confirms that the exponential growth is, at best,
small.
The annual increase for toll traffic is not constant. The fact that it tends to be
larger each year suggests an exponential growth pattern.
The percent growth column for toll traffic indicates fluctuations, but tends to
confirm the exponential nature of the growth. The average is 0.089. The second,
third and fourth year figures have an average 0.089 and the last three also 0.089.
This suggests a relatively consistent exponential growth rate of about 8.9% per
year.
25
1.2.2.2.2 Analysis of Future Trends

Although the future is likely to resemble the past in many respects, there may be
predictable deviations that will require adjustment of the established trends (2c). The
equations derived from the preceding trend analysis are generally the starting point in
forecasting. If no deviations can be foreseen, or if a deviation can be foreseen but its
effect is in doubt, the forecast may be made using the past trend without adjustment.
However, this decision should be noticed so that the forecast may be revised when
experience or further study provides a better basis for adjustment.
New services or features lead to alter calling habits causing traffic characteristics and
growth rates to change. Frequently, the rate of growth is diminished (tapered) because
of the personal opinion that past rates of growth cannot be sustained indefinitely.
While it may be true that a saturation point will be reached, there is little such
indication in countries after war. Thus, no tapered forecast should also be made to
give to the plan the necessary flexibility.
The traffic trend formula must be adjusted when the rate of growth is expected to
change. Traffic volume must be adjusted if a discontinuity is expected with the
introduction of a new service. In some cases, the calling rate may need to be adjusted
rather than the traffic volumes.
1.2.2.3 Econometric Models

Econometric models refer to a set of mathematical equations, which relate one variable
to a number of other socio-economic variables (12i). Econometric models also provide
numerical measurement of the causal relationship between these variables.
Econometric models are used for forecasting future quantities and for deriving
elasticities to be used in the rate change evaluation.
The concept of elasticity plays an important role in economic demand analysis.
Elasticity (12j) is the quotient of the percentage change of the number of subscribers Y
and the percentage of income per capita X, which has caused the change of Y and
which must be thought as infinitely small. A practical definition of elasticity is as
follows:
(Y1 Y0)/Y0
EX =
(X1 X0)/X0
where Y0 and X0 denote the number of subscribers and income before the income
change, while Y1 and X1 denote the corresponding quantities after the income change.
Independent variables, which are used to explain the demand for a commodity, can be
identified from the economic theory. In the case of telecommunications demand, the
commonly used independent variables are the following:
1)
The price index, or the charge index for a minute call, which measures price
elasticity,
26
2)
3)
4)
5)
Economic conditions such as the gross national (domestic) product,

employment, population, or trade, which measures income elasticity,
The wholesale index, consumer price index or GNP deflator, which yields the
real price index (the level of telecommunication prices, compared to the general
level of prices),
The telephone stations or the non-completion rates,
The percentage of direct dial traffic, which takes into account the effect of
automation.
In a broad sense, the economic and cultural level of a nation governs both the supply
of and the demand for telephones. The demand depends, of course, also on national
preferences and habits and last but not least, on the telephone tariffs. To avoid the
influence of the latter, all investigations and forecasts should be made on the
assumption that the telephone tariffs are not prohibitive, but are low enough to make a
sound expansion of the telephone network possible.
For inter-country comparisons, it is necessary to have some mechanism for comparing
GDP expressed in various national currencies. The simpler way is to convert all
currencies to a common one, using exchange rates.
Table 1.2 based on ITU data (15), depicts the Telephone Density (main telephone lines
per 100 inhabitants) for 206 countries in year 1995 correlating it to the GDP per capita
in US Dollars ($).
Table 1.2
Correlation of Telephone Density to GDP per capita in Year 1995
No
NAME
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
43
45
47
49
Afghanistan
Algeria
Angola
Argentina
Aruba
Austria
Bahamas
Bangladesh
Belgium
Belize
Bermuda
Bolivia
Bosnia
Brunei Darussalam
Burkina Faso
Cambodia
Canada
Central African Rep.
Chile
Colombia
Congo
Costa Rica
Cuba
Czech Republic
Denmark
GDP/capita
in US$
1,472
913
8,042
11,533
29,001
12,399
243
26,570
2,719
26,729
939
17,556
170
286
19,092
332
4,714
2,044
758
2,699
1,199
4,564
32,990
Main
tel.Ln/
100Inh
0.14
4.38
0.47
17.38
38.17
46.89
31.50
0.26
46.52
13.33
75.82
4.32
8.98
26.26
0.32
0.08
60.24
0.29
15.59
11.76
0.80
15.47
3.23
27.31
61.79
27
No
NAME
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
Albania
Andorra
Antigua & Barbuda
Armenia
Australia
Azerbaijan
Bahrain
Barbados
Belarus
Benin
Bhutan
Botswana
Brazil
Bulgaria
Burundi
Cameroon
Cape Verde
Chad
China
Comoro
Cote d Ivoire
Croatia
Cyprus
Dem. Rep. Of Congo
Djibouti
GDP/capita
in US$
680
7,122
342
19,210
321
8,695
7,177
1,004
367
528
3,099
4,591
1,470
202
621
876
157
575
466
702
3,786
11,995
201
856
Main
tel.ln/
100Inh
1.74
42.25
42.34
15.40
51.88
8.54
24.11
36.99
20.77
0.59
1.01
4.83
9.57
31.26
0.25
0.52
6.37
0.09
4.46
0.79
0.88
30.86
48.46
0.08
1.32
No
NAME
51
53
55
57
59
61
63
65
67
69
71
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
101
103
105
107
109
111
113
115
117
119
121
123
125
127
129
131
133
135
137
139
141
143
145
147
149
151
153
155
157
159
161
163
165
167
D.P.R. Korea
Dominican Rep.
Egypt
Equatorial Guinea
Estonia
Faroe Islands
Finland
French Guiana
Gabon
Germany
Ghana
Greenland
Guadeloupe
Guatemala
Guinea
Guyana
Honduras
Hungary
India
Iran (I.R.)
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Jordan
Kenya
Korea (Rep)
Kyrgystan
Latvia
Lesotho
Libya
Luxembourg
Madagascar
Malaysia
Mali
Marshall Islands
Mauritania
Mayotte
Micronesia
Mongolia
Mozambique
Namibia
Neth. Antilles
New Caledonia
Nicaragua
Nigeria
Norway
Pakistan
Papua New Guinea
Peru
Poland
Puerto Rico
Reunion
Russia
S. Kitts and Nevis
Samoa
Senegal
Sierra Leone
Slovak Rep.
Solomon Islands
GDP/capita
in US$
1,512
1.030
409
2.439
24,659
3,858
29,489
362
5,147
1,377
686
710
709
4,271
365
1,521
17,267
18,963
41,004
1,526
332
10,174
319
1,768
430
42,351
235
4,339
238
465
1,921
412
86
2,178
462
610
33,547
455
1,140
2,440
3,055
9,909
9,366
2,429
5,065
916
583
209
3,230
949
Main
tel.Ln/
100Inh
4.90
8.26
4.99
0.89
29.85
52.68
54.90
28.87
3.16
53.84
0.44
37.73
39.62
3.13
0.22
5.99
3.10
26.06
1.54
9.53
39.48
44.01
48.92
5.99
0.82
43.04
7.48
29.81
0.90
6.79
59.16
0.26
18.32
0.19
5.92
0.43
6.56
6.54
3.93
0,34
5,43
36.59
24.11
2.63
0.36
55.55
1.77
1.07
5.99
16.91
33.57
34.01
17.54
38.16
4.97
1.11
0.40
23.19
1.84
28
No
NAME
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
120
122
124
126
128
130
132
134
136
138
140
142
144
146
148
150
152
154
156
158
160
162
164
166
168
Dominica
Ecuador
El Salvador
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Fiji
France
French Polynesia
Gambia
Georgia
Greece
Grenada
Guam
Guernsey
Guinea-Bissau
Haiti
Hong Kong
Iceland
Indonesia
Iraq
Israel
Jamaica
Jersey
Kazakhstan
Kiribati
Kuwait
Lao P.D.R.
Lebanon
Liberia
Lithuania
Macau
Malawi
Maldives
Malta
Martinique
Mauritius
Mexico
Moldova
Morocco
Myanmar
Nepal
Netherlands
New Zealand
Niger
Northnern Marianas
Oman
Panama
Paraguay
Philippines
Portugal
Qatar
Romania
Rwanda
S.Tome & Principe
Saudi Arabia
Seychelles
Singapore
Slovenia
Somalia
GDP/capita
in US$
2,914
1,563
1,774
161
95
2,638
26,496
1,679
350
372
10,922
2,560
240
384
22,784
26,069
1,038
2,691
15,316
2,025
26,858
1,006
550
15,739
329
2,821
1,605
16,917
151
1,108
8,709
3,487
3,145
392
1,218
2,381
193
25,581
16,630
208
5,604
2,619
1,820
1,098
9,175
13,639
1,573
155
358
7,005
6,748
28,604
9,431
101
Main
tel.ln/
100Inh
26.39
7.33
5.61
0.51
0.25
8.78
56.36
22.36
1.87
10.49
50.87
24.34
45.70
71.60
0.73
0.84
54.69
57.61
2.13
3.28
44.09
14.17
73.39
11.60
2.60
23.23
0.56
14.93
0.16
26.78
36.70
0.35
6.30
48.30
42.53
16.21
9.48
14.00
4.60
0.39
0.53
54.33
49.92
0.16
42.81
8.59
12.16
3.56
2.49
37.49
23.93
13.98
0.28
1.97
10.64
19.56
51.33
33.33
0.15
No
NAME
169
171
173
175
177
179
181
183
185
187
189
191
193
195
197
199
201
203
205
South Africa
Sri Lanka
St. Vincent
Suriname
Sweden
Syria
Tajikistan
TFYR Macedonia
Togo
Trinidad & Tobago
Turkey
Uganda
United Arab Emirates
United States
Uzbekistan
Venezuela
Virgin Islands (US)
Yemen
Zambia
GDP/capita
in US$
3,231
710
2,157
1,263
25,956
1,316
84
1,419
293
3,959
2,708
315
17.335
27,569
410
3,438
476
351
Main
tel.Ln/
100Inh
10.05
1.39
17.12
13.16
68.21
8.20
4.17
16.98
0.57
16.81
22.36
0.24
30.78
63.99
6.68
11.74
56.10
1.29
0.94
No
NAME
170
172
174
176
178
180
182
184
186
188
190
192
194
196
198
200
202
204
206
Spain
St. Lucia
Sudan
Swaziland
Switzerland
Taiwan-China
Tanzania
Thailand
Tonga
Tunisia
Turkmenistan
Ukraine
United Kingdom
Uruguay
Vanuatu
Viet Nam
West Bank and Gaza
Yugoslavia
Zimbabwe
GDP/capita
in US$
14,260
3,511
211
1,388
42,945
12,240
177
2,820
1,764
2,008
1,347
70
18,975
5,564
1,406
276
1,510
694
Main
tel.ln/
100Inh
39.25
23.46
0.36
2.19
64.04
46.62
0.30
7.00
7.86
6.43
7.40
18.09
52.76
20.89
2.57
1.58
3.62
19.69
1.47
1.2.2.3.1 Influencing Factors

Some factors influencing the demand of telecommunications are clearly quantitative,
like many demographic factors, population, number of households, etc., and are thus
relatively easy to use in statistical models. Other factors of great importance, like
general technological development, political environment, culture, etc. are difficult or
impossible to measure.
The forecaster may find ways to quantify these influencing factors, which is especially
important if they are expected to change considerably in the future.
- Technological environment
The technological environment (12m) in general is characterised by fast-growing
research and development and an unprecedented swiftness of technological change.
The technological development is an important component when estimating the
demand.
- Political environment
In many countries, particularly in the less developed parts of the world, there is often a
long-term shortage of investment funds due to the balance-of-payment problems or to
the lack of local sources of Capital.
The political and legal environment (12n) can be the predominant factor in
determining the supply of telecommunication services, based on the budgetary
allocations or on the governmental regulations.
29
- Culture
Culture determines (12o) the way in which we do, use and judge things and this varies
from society to society. Based on cultural differences between countries, we must
recognise that basic factors affecting telecommunication demands may be of different
importance from country to country.
- Demographic factors
Population and age (12p) structure of population affect directly the
telecommunication demand. The size and the rate of growth of these factors are
strictly connected to the number of births and deaths.
The number of households represents a part of potential subscribers of telecommunication services.
The housing refers to the number of houses available at a certain time and the
expected growth.
The degree of urbanisation is the percentage of the population living in communities
exceeding a specific number of inhabitants.
The city structure involves surveys on cities with reference to business and
residential quarters, density of dwellings, etc.
The mobility refers to the annual number of removals, to the daily commuter traffic,
to the seasonal mobility, etc.
The number of second homes is an increasingly important factor of additional
demand for telecommunication services, especially after a certain level of financial
progress.
Demographic factors are of crucial importance especially in the case of the
Republic (see par. 1.3).
- Number of buyers
The market (12q) consists of all the actual and potential consumers of a product or
service. The size of the market can be measured by studying the overall size of the
population. In many cases it is better to include the number of households as a
variable, rather than size of the population. Moreover, the age and sex distribution of
the population are of importance in any market.
The business sector can for instance be measured by studying the number of
employees and the number of separate business entities.
- Needs and wants
The real needs (12r) of a country or region cannot always be assessed on the basis of
the expressed demand, since this may have no significance. In the more developed
30
countries, with an important telecommunication infrastructure, unsatisfied needs find

their natural expression in the form of subscriber waiting lists and the difficulties
encountered in handling the traffic. However, sometimes, fairly large sectors of the
population, which have remained at a rather low stage of development and whose
standard of living is close to the subsistence level, have resigned from living without
telecommunications. No need is expressed, but this does not mean that means of
communication are unnecessary.
- Economic factors
The distribution of income (12s), as well as the average level of income, may be
among the crucial factors, which determine the demand for a given service. A country
with a few rich people and many poor is likely to have quite a different consumption
pattern from that of a country with the same average level of income, which is
distributed fairly evenly.
Looking at the business subscriber sector in general, we know that increasing trade
and tourism demand a well-established telecommunication system. An increase of
foreign trade causes an increase of the demand for telecommunication services within
the different sectors.
The more developed sector of a developing country is often geographically limited to
the Capital and its surroundings, a port, an important agricultural area, or an important
raw material deposit.
- Business and household demand
There are four large and outstanding segments (12t) in some telecommunication
services, particularly in the telephone services:
a)
b)
c)
d)
Residential lines,
Single business lines,
Multi-business lines (e.g. PBX-lines),
Public lines (pay phones).
- Marketing factors
It is assumed that the environmental factors, under which an Administration has to
operate, cannot be changed or influenced.
There are other factors, which affect the market, and are under the control of the
Administration. These are called marketing factors. They determine the demand and
the provided service, which result from the environment. They can be used to
overcome environmental factors, to emphasize them or to serve any other objective.
- Elasticity factors
There is a clear interdependence in most countries between the socio-economic
development, as reflected by the GDP measured in fixed prices, and the development
of:
31
The tariffs (prices),

The number of subscribers,
The volume of telecommunication traffic,
The amount of investments in telecommunication plant.
The interdependence mentioned may be quantified, using regression analysis of

historical data and the results obtained may be used in the forecasting of the
development in various telecommunication sectors. This possibility has a great
advantage. Since in every country, forecast figures concerning the GDP and the
associated variables are normally available. They can then be used for the forecasting
of the development in the various telecommunication sectors.
A theoretical model for the interdependence between macro-economic data of the
above mentioned types (as explanatory factors) and the development in various
telecommunication sectors may be obtained by the generalization of the theory for the
interdependence between the price of a commodity and the quantity demanded.
As a matter of fact the price of and the demand for an article offered, under market
conditions, are not independent of each other. On the contrary there is a pronounced
interaction: when the unit price increases the demand drops and vice versa. This
statement is modified by the concept of elasticity (12v). Price elasticity expresses the
sensitivity of customers to the cost of the service (see par. 1.2.2.3).
Some articles are very price-sensitive, so that the demand drops heavily even for
moderate price increases. Such articles are said to have a high "price elasticity". Other
articles are less sensitive to price fluctuations - they have a low price elasticity.
1.2.3 Subscriber Demand Forecasting

Using mathematical models, like the ones described in par. 1.2.2.1 the forecast of
subscribers demand may be done. The following method is an example of application
of the exponential logistic function.
We assume that the telephone density D(t) at time t is described by the exponential
logistic function:
Dmax
D(t) =
{1 + e-c(t-to)}1/m
Where:
c , to , m = are unknown coefficients.
While the following relation might calculate the saturation density Dmax:
32
n
Dmax =
Where:
n = number of telephones in saturation per 100 households
= percentage of telephones in households in saturation situation
k = persons per household by the end of the year.
1.2.4 Traffic Forecasting

During the development phase of a telecommunication network, the delay from the
arising need for subscriber lines and relevant equipment to the fulfilment of these
needs may be significantly large. This means that in order to expand the network,
these needs must be foreseen correctly and in detail, so that the necessary equipment
will be available before the total coverage of the existing capacity.
Another obvious need for reliable forecasting results from the additional cost for the
Network Operators when there is no correct prediction. If the needs are overestimated,
then capital is spent for the acquisition of expensive equipment, which is not going to
bring new revenues. On the other hand, if the needs are underestimated, then valuable
income will be lost and the network users will complain.
The subscribers traffic originates from the Terminal (Local) exchanges and there via
the various Tandem exchanges, is transferred to the Transit ones. Terminal exchanges
are expected to be installed in each Terminal area. In these exchanges the traffic that
is destined to other Terminal areas is routed to its own Tandem exchange according to
the routing plan. The traffic forecasting is carried-out considering the switching and
routing plans, through all hierarchical levels.
As it is known the originating traffic per subscriber is used for the calculation of the
long distance traffic (see par. 1.2.4.3). The distribution of this traffic is not easily
estimated using statistical methods or mathematical formulas. Thus the forecasting
calculations are based on the experience from similar cases in other countries with
similar structure, on traffic measurements or on description of the subscribers
behavior, etc.
A parameter that should be carefully taken into account is the development procedure
in the region. The construction of industries, roads, airports, harbors and the
transportation of people have as result the modification of the traffic volume and its
distribution in different destinations. Therefore, the traffic forecasting must be
regularly revised and adapted to the characteristic conditions of each region.
As the network grows, two factors affect the traffic in opposing ways (10l). The first
is the stimulus phenomenon, i.e. the growth tendency of trunk traffic per subscriber,
since the factor of community interest increases because a larger network is available.
The second is the reduction tendency of the average traffic per subscriber due to the
dilution factor. This dilution occurs with large expansions because subscribers with
33
lower calling rates are added to the network. Initially, the increase is expected to be
larger than the decrease, followed by a period of stability. At a late stage the dilution
effect may be observed.
The most difficult part of a forecasting study is the preliminary preparation of the data
system. The difficulty rises from the strong interaction between all the data, so that a
small change somewhere may have important consequences elsewhere. Moreover, the
data taken in consideration may change during the study. The choice of the methods
to be used depends on the availability and the reliability of the input data required by
these methods. There is a mutual interaction between the data to be collected and the
methods to be used, so it is advisable to combine the two possible ways to deal with
this problem:
-
To collect all possible data, and then to select methods and calculation
procedures. According to the availability and the reliability of these data, it may
be that interesting methods may not be used if the required data are not available
or not reliable enough.
To select the proper methods, and then to collect the required input data and, if
necessary, to estimate missing input data by a personal judgment.
The traffic forecasting method considers the following elements:

-
Measurements period (according to ITU-T Rec. E.500, 18b) long enough to

give a meaningful sample.
A sufficient number of measurements.
Traffic values for each type of traffic (local, urban, interurban, international,
manual international, special services).
The average subscriber traffic (originating and terminating).
It is obvious that these data are issued in each exchange, and therefore raises the need
for appropriate collection and maintenance of the data.
One of the short-term traffic forecasts is that for the traffic from one exchange
towards the others. It is recommended to create a matrix of outgoing traffic for each
exchange. The evaluation of such a matrix, of which the purpose is the dimensioning
of the trunk groups, passes from the following phases:
a)
Creation of a point-to-point matrix for the offered traffic.
b)
Extrapolation of the initial matrix to the target horizon.
c)
Consideration of the routings (constraints from network structure).
d)
Determination of needs in trunks.
34
For the extrapolation of traffic it is useful to apply a development model based on

statistical data of at least five years. The simplest model being the time series
described in paragraph 1.2.2.2.
1.2.4.1 Theoretical Analysis of Traffic Forecasting

1.2.4.1.1 Exchange Traffic Forecasting
The forecasting of incoming and outgoing traffic for all the terminal exchanges is
necessary for the dimensioning of the local trunk groups linking these terminal
exchanges and the related group exchange, for all the future years under study.
Then it is necessary to forecast the evolution of five different categories of traffic for
every parent exchange and every future year (10m). These categories, which are
necessary in order to forecast the point-to-point traffic matrix, are the following:
-
Local traffic (in the same group area),

Outgoing national traffic, for all other group areas,
Outgoing international traffic,
Incoming national traffic, from all other group areas,
Incoming international traffic.
The method used in this section is based on the extrapolation of calling rates for
residential and business subscribers. The exchange traffic will be obtained by
multiplying the forecasts of these two categories of subscribers by their corresponding
calling rates. A direct extrapolation of the average calling rate for all the subscribers is
possible only when the percentage of the categories of the subscribers is constant in
time.
1.2.4.1.2 Analysis of Initial Data

The basic traffic data, which are necessary for a study of a telecommunication
network, are:
-
Future demand of subscriber lines for the study years,

The calling rates (originating and terminating average traffic per subscriber), for
each of the existing terminal exchanges for the base study year,
Traffic data according to subscribers categories,
Traffic dispersion.
1.2.4.1.3 Evolution of Calling Rates

The future originating and terminating calling rates are carried out with a logarithmic
trend for both categories of subscribers, residential and business and for each terminal
exchange. It is assumed that the originating and terminating traffic per subscriber is
the same for similar service areas and for the same study year.
35
The used formula is:

T = LOG(A * Y + B)
where: Y = the year,
T = the calling rate,
A and B, two parameters to be determined with two points called Y1 at the year T1,
and Y2 at the year T2:
A = [EXP(Y2) - EXP(Y1)]/(T2-T1)
B = [EXP(Y1) * T2 - EXP(Y2) * T1]/(T2-T1)
Some complementary input data are assumed (see the following paragraph 1.2.4.3):
-
each terminal exchange is assigned to a class of traffic according to the

characteristics of the related subscribers,
for each class of traffic, a target value is given for each type of elementary
calling rate (only for the two categories of subscribers).
1.2.4.1.4 Aggregation of Calling Rates on the Parent Exchanges

The originating and terminating traffic of all terminal exchanges is carried out
separately for residential and business subscribers by multiplying the related calling
rates with the corresponding number of subscribers. The traffic of all these exchanges
is aggregated on their group exchange.
1.2.4.2 Inter-Exchange Traffic Matrices

In order to provide the planning process with input data for determining the future
routing rules between these exchanges and the dimensioning of the required circuit
groups it is necessary to forecast the flows of traffic between all the group exchanges.
The inter-exchange network (12w) is made of the different urban networks and of the
trunk network linking these urban networks together. We distinguish two types of
exchanges:
-
The terminal/tandem exchanges and the international gateway exchange; they

are both sources and sinks for the traffic because they create originating traffic
that is sent to other exchanges, and they absorb terminating traffic, received
from other exchanges. Some times, they are partly used as transit exchanges. In
normal conditions, no traffic is lost, and consequently, the total incoming traffic
must be equal to the total outgoing one.
The transit exchanges do not create traffic, they have only outgoing and
incoming traffic.
36
It is impossible to forecast directly the offered traffic in the existing circuit groups,
except for a very short term and only with steady network configuration (same routing
rules, same circuit groups). As a matter of fact, this traffic offered to circuit groups is
made up from elementary point-to-point flows of traffic between group exchanges.
These point-to-point traffic flows must be studied separately, because they may have
very different growth rates, they may disappear or some of them may be created
following the evolution of the network. The offered traffic to the existing circuit
groups must be split in elementary point-to-point flows of traffic between group
exchanges, independently of possible routes via transit exchanges. These flows of
traffic will be extrapolated, so that the previous condition, about the balance between
the totals of outgoing and incoming traffic of the group exchanges, is followed. Then
the obtained future point-to-point flows of traffic will be aggregated on the proposed
future circuit groups, according to the evolution of the routing between the group
exchanges. The final result of the forecasting study will be point-to-point traffic
matrices.
The calculation of the future offered traffic to circuit groups is a matter of network
planning, because it depends on the dimensioning of the future network, with an
optimisation of the traffic routing.
1.2.4.2.1 Analysis of Initial data

The initial necessary data (12x) are the following:
-
The offered traffic to all the existing circuit groups;

The traffic routing rules between all the group exchanges;
The percentage of the distribution of traffic in all the group exchanges;
The future exchange traffic per traffic category.
1.2.4.2.2 Setting-up of the Initial Point-to-point Traffic Matrix

In order to assess the initial point-to-point traffic matrix (12y) we follow the steps
below:
-
The offered traffic in the existing circuit groups during the base-year is carried
out with the Erlang formula applied to the number of circuits and the measured
(or carried) traffic, taking into account the case of limited availability.
The offered traffic carried on the transit routes is split into elementary flows of
traffic between group exchanges. For this purpose it is necessary to take into
account the routing rules used in the traffic routing matrix; each transit
exchange is studied separately.
The affinity factors are calculated from the initial point-to-point traffic matrix,
and a serious investigation must be carried out about all values significantly
different from 1. This step is necessary for the reliability of all the future traffic
matrices, which will be estimated from this initial traffic matrix, and the affinity
factors are an efficient tool for checking it.
The formula giving the affinity factors is:
37
FT(I,J) * OTOT
AFF(I,J) =
OOG(I) = OIC(J)
with
FT
OTOT
OOG(I)
OIC(J)
=
=
=
=
element of the current point-to-point flow of traffic,

obtained total of all the elements of the current matrix,
obtained outgoing traffic of the exchange of the row No.I,
obtained incoming traffic of the column No.J.
The provisional values of the point-to-point traffic matrix are compared with
the percentages of distribution of outgoing traffic obtained from specific
measurements.
1.2.4.2.3 Elementary Traffic Variables

In addition to the construction of the initial point-to-point traffic matrix, the major
part of the preliminary traffic forecasting is the analysis of the composition of the
traffic at a switching point. A double classification is necessary:
-
By subscriber category,
By destination category.
To do this it is necessary to pass through the intermediate stage of determining the

following total mean subscriber traffic values for each category:
-
Residential subscriber,
Ordinary business subscriber,
PBX business subscriber.
Each of these values should evolve in time according to a simple relation. Multiplying
by the number of subscribers in each category we get the total traffic, which is
handled by the switching exchange serving the area under consideration.
The total mean traffic per subscriber category should then be divided into six traffic
categories (18c), according to figure 1.5.
Originating
traffic
subscriber side
Network side
Outgoing
traffic
Internal
exchange
Transit
traffic
traffic
Terminating
traffic
Incoming
traffic
Figure 1.5
Traffic distribution in an exchange
38
The outgoing traffic and incoming traffic categories shown in figure 1.8 must in turn
be divided into a number of subcategories, which depend on the precision required
from the study, like:
-
Traffic inside the terminal area,

Regional traffic (other terminal areas of the same region),
National traffic (other regions),
International traffic,
Special services,
Manual services using operators.
1.2.4.4 International Traffic Forecast

ITU-T Recommendation E.506 (18d) deals with international traffic forecasting.
Since, data and needs in this field are often different from those encountered in
domestic traffic forecasting, international traffic forecasting must be considered as a
special case.
In Recommendation E.506 (18d), two different strategies for international traffic
forecasting are described: the direct strategy and the composite strategy. With the
direct strategy, carried traffic or measured usage (expressed in Erlangs) for each
relation is the base data, which is to be converted into offered traffic, in accordance
with Recommendation E.501 (18e), Estimation of Traffic Offered to International
Circuit Groups (see par. 1.2.4.5.1). Forecasting methods are thus similar to those
used for traffic loads in domestic networks.
The composite forecasting strategy uses historical international accounting data of
monthly paid minute traffic as base data. Such data are generally available in
international networks, but they are very seldom found in domestic networks. They
are forecasted and converted to dimensioning busy hour Erlang forecasts by the
application of a number of traffic related conversion factors forecast for each service
category. The conversion is carried out with the formula:
A = M dh/60e
where:
A is the estimated mean offered traffic in the busy hour (in Erl),
M is the monthly paid minutes,
d is day to monthly ratio (i.e. the ratio of average weekday paid time to
monthly paid time),
h is the busy hour to day ratio (i.e. the ratio of the busy-hour paid-time to the
average daily paid-time),
e is the efficiency factor (i.e. the ratio of the busy-hour paid-time to busyhour occupied time).
To forecast paid minute traffic, models using explanatory variables are often used.
Explanatory variables often include:
39
Export,
Import,
Degree of automation,
Quality of service,
Time difference between countries,
Tariffs,
Consumer price index,
Gross national product.
Recommendation E.506 (18d) suggests the use of both the direct and composite
forecasting strategies and their reconciliation to yield more reliable forecast.
Although simple regression analysis of very long-term historical data gives good
results, traffic data from the later years are likely to provide a better trend, being
influenced by events that carry more weight both within the Country and outside,
which are related to the economy, migration, political status, etc. It is thus appropriate
to use more sophisticated tools that take into account, not only historical data, but also
such other factors that influence the growth of the traffic in both directions, for
example multiple regression analysis.
The exponential smoothing method (12ac) is characterized by the use of exponentially
decreasing weights, as the observations get older. The recent observations are given
more weight in forecasting relatively to the older ones. When the time-series follows
approximately linear trends, then the double exponential smoothing models may be
used.
1.2.4.5 Considerations of Traffic Models

The establishment of traffic models is essential in traffic calculations and traffic
forecasting (12ad).
Two types of data should be considered in traffic forecasting/planning. The first is the
measured traffic data and the second is the billing data. This includes not only the
international level but also national levels. Circuit groups in stable networks can
usually be serviced/engineered using measured circuit group data. If the network
under consideration is very unstable (as it is the case of a country exiting from war)
then it would be advisable to use point-to-point data which may be estimated from
measurements per direction code or from billing data. Point-to-point data could be
supplemented by circuit group data. One advantage of point-to-point data is that they
provide point-to-point demand that circuit group data often dont, especially in
complex networks. It is advantageous to use both strategies (if possible) and compare
the results. If there are significant differences the cause should be found before a
method is accepted. If a composite forecasting strategy is used, an analysis should be
carried out of how the billing data are recorded. If the billing data are recorded by rate
period, the rate period that encompasses the busy hour could be used.
The choice of the forecasting model to be used usually depends on the following
considerations:
40
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
Variables describing the traffic.

Length of the forecasting period.
Availability of historical data and computer facilities.
Aggregation level.
Forecasting accuracy.
1.2.4.5.1 Estimation of Traffic Offered

The methods of estimating traffic offered from measurements taken on circuit groups
can be found in ITU-T Recommendation E.501 (18e). The methods are briefly
summarized in the following:
1)
Only-route circuit group with no significant congestion:

A = Ac
Where: A = offered load
Ac = carried load
2)
Only-route circuit group with significant congestion:

(1-WB)
A = Ac
(1-B)
Where:
3)
B =
average loss probability for all call attempts to the considered circuit
group.
W =
parameter representing the effect of call repetitions; if measurements of

completion ratios are not available a value in a range of 0.6-0.9 for W
may be used.
High-usage/final network arrangements with no significant congestion on the

final group
A = Ah + Af
where:
Ah = the traffic carried on the high-usage group
Af = the traffic overflowing from this high usage group and
carried on the final group
4)
High-usage/final network arrangements with significant congestion on the final

group, require further study before a procedure can be recommended.
41
The above model is based on the observed fact that when calls do not succeed,
callers often reattempt. The result of the model is an estimate of traffic offered
that is lower than would be obtained if the simple model:
Ac
A =
(1- B)
was applied (no re-attempts) and incorporates observed values of caller
persistence (W).
It has also been observed that under conditions of very poor service, many
subscribers will not attempt to call at all in the busy hour. In such a situation, if
service improves, new call attempts will appear and the estimate of traffic
offered will turn out to be low. Thus before calculating traffic offered the
forecaster should ask questions about the network or portion of network
concerned, e.g.:
-
Is Answer Seizure Ratio (ASR) very low (< 20%)?

Are operator-handled calls more than half of the total traffic and do
operator delays last more than two hours?
Is busy hour concentration less than half of the one predicted by the
theoretical profile?
If the answer to all these questions is no, the traffic offered calculation can
proceed using observed or conventional values of W (persistence). If one or
more answers are yes, a higher estimate of offered traffic is required. This
estimate is very difficult be to obtained analytically, as it requires knowledge of
the subscribers motivations and actions not manifested in the network. One
empirical method, which has been used, with some success in a developing
country, uses the same formula as the one given above but with W:
if B < 0.5,
if B > 0.5,
W =0.5
W= B
With this method, offered traffic estimates will generally be higher than the
conventional calculation would yield, but if the trunk group Grade of Service
itself is very bad, the two estimates come closer.
1.2.4.5.2 24-hour Traffic Profiles

The average evolution of a traffic load depending on the time of day is called traffic
profile. For national traffic, traffic profiles depend on characteristics of the subscribers
(business/residential) and of the exchange (size of the town etc). For international
traffic, traffic profiles depend on time difference.
Traffic profiles should be based on real traffic measurements. If this is not feasible,
due either to the fact that traffic streams are too small (measurements not very
42
reliable) or measurements do not exist, the standard profiles, found in

Recommendation E.523 (18f), are very useful for International telephone traffic.
1.2.4.5.3 Busy Hour

The busy hour (18b) refers to a continuous one-hour period of time for which the
traffic (expressed in traffic volume or in number of call attempts) is the highest. It
may be defined for a circuit group, a network cluster or a network.
The recommended standard method by ITU-T of calculating the daily average
requires continuously measuring all quarter hours for all days concerned and selecting
the busiest hour in the average profile for all days. This method is called TimeConsistent Busy Hour (TCBH).
1.2.5. Overcoming Lack of Usable Data

In many developing countries, the data available are extremely limited or may exhibit
large discontinuities or are in a not immediately usable form or missing. ITU-T deals
(12ae) with this problem and describes judgemental or more subjective forecasting
techniques that can be applied to telecommunications demand studies.
1.2.6 ISDN Forecasting

The operation and administration of a telecommunication network should consider the
subscriber demands for new services, which have different characteristics than the
traditional telephone service. ITU-T in its Recommendation E.508 (18g) proposes a
forecasting methodology, which is depicted in Fig 1.6
The basic steps of this approach are:
- Service and parameter definition
In addition to the Recommendation E.508, ITU-CCITT examines all services and
parameters for the introduction of ISDN in a national network (11) with the assistance
of three case studies. In this document the ISDN services and parameters are listed
and, after a market research, the ones to be implemented may be selected.
- Independent forecasting methods
The absence of historical data is the fundamental handicap in forecasting ISDN
services. The methods proposed to be used are either based on the use of historical
data from other countries, expert opinions or socio-economic analysis. Finally a
market research is recommended to test consumer response and behaviour.
- Combining forecasts
Each independent forecasting method is developed based on a particular set of
assumptions and information. The combination of forecasts can be classified in two
major categories. One is the aggregation of different forecasts using weighting
43
methods and the other is an attempt to model the decision process of forecasting
revision in a structured approach.
- Evaluation
The evaluation of the forecasts is an important part of the overall forecasting
procedure and depends on the methodology used.
Figure 1.6
New services forecasting approach
44
2. SUBSCRIBER DEMAND, TRAFFIC AND ISDN

FORECASTING METHODOLOGY
2.1 EXISTING SITUATION

The present study has as a target the preparation of a plan for a single, integrated,
digital telecommunications network within the boundaries of the Republic. The
present network is not supposed to be neither integrated nor wholly digital. We
assume that it has the form of nine separate territorial operating companies
(Regions), each of which employs a mixture of analogue and digital technology.
The telecommunication sector in the Republic has suffered severe damages during
the war. At present, the telecommunications network is of poor condition due to the
war.
The recovery of financial, political and social life imposes to the PTT of Republic
to take care of the development of the telecommunications sector. In order that PTT is
able to provide technical solutions for the urgent restoration of services in an efficient
and cost-justified way, the subscriber and traffic demand must be identified, as a first
step towards the telecommunications development and the proper planning. These
will be the basis upon which the immediate needs will be addressed, while providing a
firm foundation for the period (1996-2016) of the forecast.
Historical data, relative to the conditions before the war, are depicted in Table 2.1 and
they can be used, up to a point, for future estimations. The existing situation in the
Republic was formed after the end of the war and its descriptions, based on
estimations made by the PTT, are shown also in Table 2.1.
As it was not possible to have typical waiting lists, only a limited number of data were
provided, concerning potential interest expressed by the public for obtaining a main
telephone line. An estimation of the demand was made with a method described
below for year 1996 and is depicted in Table 2.1.
There are certain differences in the waiting lists between the two parts of Table 2.1.
This is due to the following assumptions: a) new territories have been attached to the
Republic, b) there has been social restructure of certain regions, with relocation of
refugees or evacuation of the population and c) PTT intends to modernize the network
by replacing manual switchboards with automatic exchanges.
In the trend method, (see par. 1.2.2.2.2) the forecast is based on historical data. This is
the most often used method for countries with normal telephone density (number of
telephone sets per 100 inhabitants). However, it is almost impossible to use this
method if the density is low and it will lead at least to absurdities for long-term
forecasts if the density is high.
45
Table 2.1
Existing National Telephone Network before and after the war
BEFORE THE WAR
TERMINAL AREA
Installed
lines
Lines in-use Existing

Penetration %
AFTER THE WAR
Waiting
list
Installed
lines
Lines in-use
Waiting
list
ZONE I.1
TERMINAL I.1.1CAPITAL
TERMINAL I.1.2
50.244
48.193
20.000
50.244
48.193
900
20.000
1.000
900
1.000
TERMINAL I.1.3
500
420
500
420
TERMINAL I.1.4
2.000
1.950
2.000
1.950
TERMINAL I.1.5
960
940
960
940
TERMINAL I.1.6
768
768
768
768
TERMINAL I.1.7
240
240
240
240
TERMINAL I.1.8
384
384
384
384
TERMINAL I.1.9
180
180
180
180
TERMINAL I.1.10
384
236
192
384
236
192
TERMINAL I.1.11
384
356
192
384
356
192
TERMINAL I.1.12
768
768
768
768
TERMINAL I.1.13
240
240
240
240
TERMINAL I.1.14
192
192
192
192
TERMINAL I.1.15
360
320
360
320
TERMINAL I.1.16
214
214
214
214
TERMINAL I.1.17
256
256
256
256
TERMINAL I.1.18
256
180
256
180
424
424
NEW TERM. I.1.19
240
NEW TERM. I.1.20
480
NEW TERM. I.1.21
480
NEW TERM. I.1.22
240
NEW TERM. I.1.23
480
59.330
56.737
TERMINAL I.2.1
1.600
TERMINAL I.2.2
240
Total
41,21
20.808
59330
56.737
22.728
1.580
1.400
1.600
1.580
1.400
240
120
240
240
120
ZONE I.2
NEW TERM. I.2.3
300
180
NEW TERM. I.2.4
1.000
NEW TERM. I.2.5
240
1.840
1.820
TERMINAL I.3.1
2.000
TERMINAL I.3.2
960
Total
13,82
1.520
2.140
1.820
2.940
1.820
1.080
2.000
1.820
1.080
960
540
960
960
540
ZONE I.3
NEW TERM. I.3.3
240
260
NEW TERM. I.3.4
720
2.960
2.780
1.620
3.200
2780
2.600
TERMINAL I.4.1
5.448
TERMINAL I.4.2
512
5.300
1.600
5.448
5.300
1.600
480
140
512
480
TERMINAL I.4.3
140
128
110
128
128
110
128
TERMINAL I.4.4
256
250
128
256
250
128
TERMINAL I.4.5
1.024
1.000
1.024
1.000
TERMINAL I.4.6
180
160
320
180
160
320
TERMINAL I.4.7
768
768
1.232
768
768
1.232
Total
13,17
ZONE I.4
46
TERMINAL AREA
Installed
lines
TERMINAL I.4.8

Penetration %
384
384
TERMINAL I.4.9
384
384
Waiting
list
Installed
lines
Lines in-use
Waiting
list
424
384
384
424
192
384
384
192
NEW TERM. I.4.10
500
NEW TERM. I.4.11
640
NEW TERM. I.4.12
240
9.084
8.836
4.164
9.084
8.836
5.544
TERMINAL I.5.1
3.672
TERMINAL I.5.2
214
3.390
1.848
3.672
3.390
1.848
200
214
200
TERMINAL I.5.3
214
160
214
160
TERMINAL I.5.4
214
210
214
210
TERMINAL I.5.5
420
400
240
420
400
240
TERMINAL I.5.6
672
580
326
672
580
326
TERMINAL I.5.7
214
160
214
160
TERMINAL I.5.8
900
880
300
900
880
300
TERMINAL I.5.9
360
310
240
360
310
240
TERMINAL I.5.10
300
220
300
300
220
300
TERMINAL I.5.11
214
110
214
110
TERMINAL I.5.12
60
60
60
60
TERMINAL I.5.13
214
180
214
180
TERMINAL I.5.14
214
205
760
214
205
760
TERMINAL I.5.15
60
60
420
60
60
420
Total
20,87
ZONE I.5
NEW TERM. I.5.16
240
NEW TERM. I.5.17
240
7.942
7.125
TERMINAL I.6.1
6.000
TERMINAL I.6.2
424
TERMINAL I.6.3
TERMINAL I.6.4
Total
21,54
4.434
8.182
7.125
4.674
4.100
1.000
6.000
4.100
1.000
420
56
424
420
56
480
420
480
420
152
130
152
130
ZONE I.6
NEW TERM. I.6.5
20
460
NEW TERM. I.6.6
20
460
NEW TERM. I.6.7
20
460
NEW TERM. I.6.8
384
96
NEW TERM. I.6.9
384
96
NEW TERM. I.6.10
480
7.056
5.070
1.056
7.884
5.070
3.108
TERMINAL I.7.1
3.000
TERMINAL I.7.2
384
N/A
4.000
3.000
N/A
4.000
N/A
500
384
N/A
TERMINAL I.7.3
500
200
N/A
240
200
N/A
240
TERMINAL I.7.4
240
N/A
300
240
N/A
300
TERMINAL I.7.5
40
N/A
240
40
N/A
240
Total
12,05
ZONE I.7
NEW TERM. I.7.6
240
300
NEW TERM. I.7.7
360
3.864
~3.864
5.280
4.104
~3.864
5.940
TERMINAL I.8.1
1.600
TERMINAL I.8.2
576
1.340
1.500
1.600
1.340
1.500
576
192
576
576
TERMINAL I.8.3
192
576
426
576
426
TERMINAL I.8.4
576
526
576
526
TERMINAL I.8.5
240
214
240
214
TERMINAL I.8.6
180
180
60
180
180
60
Total
~20,00
ZONE I.8
47
TERMINAL AREA
Total
Installed
lines

Penetration %
3.748
3.262
~12,61
Waiting
list
Installed
lines
Lines in-use
Waiting
list
1.752
3.748
3.262
1.752
800
960
960
800
ZONE I.9
TERMINAL I.9.1
960
960
NEW TERM. I.9.2
240
NEW TERM. I.9.3
240
NEW TERM. I.9.4

Total
240
960
960
TERMINAL I.10.1
1.300
TERMINAL I.10.2
160
TERMINAL I.10.3
7,01
800
960
960
1.520
1.300
1.500
1.300
1.300
1.500
160
416
160
160
416
160
160
224
160
160
224
TERMINAL I.10.4
576
576
424
576
576
424
TERMINAL I.10.5
192
192
192
192
192
192
TERMINAL I.10.6
192
192
192
192
192
192
2.580
2.580
2.948
2.580
2.580
3.188
3.000
N/A
4.000
3.000
N/A
4.000
ZONE I.10
NEW TERM. I.10.7

Total
240
41,24
ZONE I.11
TERMINAL I.11.1
NEW TERM. I.11.2
200
340
NEW TERM. I.11.3
160
240
NEW TERM. I.11.4
360
NEW TERM. I.11.5
240
NEW TERM. I.11.6
240
3.360
~3.000
5.380
NEW TERM. I.12.1
240
1.000
NEW TERM. I.12.2
240
1.000
NEW TERM. I.12.3
240
NEW TERM. I.12.4
180
240
NEW TERM. I.12.5
240
660
2.720
48.382
105.232
89.170
62.094
Total
3.000
~3.000
~27,34
4.000
ZONE I.12
Total
TOTAL OF
REGION I
102.364
89.170
24,44
TERMINAL II.1.1
11.736
10.794
3.000
11.736
10.794
3.000
TERMINAL II.1.2
768
635
200
768
635
200
TERMINAL II.1.3
768
388
200
768
388
200
TERMINAL II.1.4
384
283
220
384
283
220
TERMINAL II.1.5
384
111
185
384
111
185
TERMINAL II.1.6
480
289
100
480
289
100
TERMINAL II.1.7
214
90
220
214
90
220
TERMINAL II.1.8
214
144
110
214
144
110
TERMINAL II.1.9
214
197
180
214
197
180
TERMINAL II.1.10
800
356
800
356
TERMINAL II.1.11
180
169
120
180
169
120
TERMINAL II.1.12
180
170
120
180
170
120
TERMINAL II.1.13
180
137
50
180
137
50
TERMINAL II.1.14
180
166
200
180
166
200
TERMINAL II.1.15
214
128
120
214
128
120
TERMINAL II.1.16
214
104
200
214
104
200
TERMINAL II.1.17
120
40
200
120
40
200
ZONE II.1
48
TERMINAL AREA
Installed
lines

Penetration %
Waiting
list
Installed
lines
Lines in-use
Waiting
list
NEW TERM. II.1.18

NEW TERM. II.1.19
NEW TERM. II.1.20
NEW TERM. II.1.21
1.600
1.600
NEW TERM. II.1.22
180
180
300
NEW TERM. II.1.23
240
NEW TERM. II.1.24
240
NEW TERM. II.1.25
240
17.230
14.201
5.425
19.010
15.981
6.445
TERMINAL II.2.1
3.048
TERMINAL II.2.2
60
2.380
2.000
3.048
2.380
2.000
60
300
60
60
TERMINAL II.2.3
300
240
225
200
240
225
200
TERMINAL II.2.4
180
180
200
180
180
200
TERMINAL II.2.5
180
130
200
180
130
200
TERMINAL II.2.6
270
230
400
270
230
400
TERMINAL II.2.7
600
590
1.000
600
590
1.000
NEW TERM. II.2.8
180
180
60
NEW TERM. II.2.9
180
180
60
NEW TERM. II.2.10
160
160
80
NEW TERM. II.2.11
60
60
120
NEW TERM. II.2.12
180
180
60
NEW TERM. II.2.13
240
4.300
5.338
4.555
4.920
Total
17,89
ZONE II.2
4.578
3.795
TERMINAL II.3.1
3.248
3.200
2.000
3.248
3.200
2.000
TERMINAL II.3.2
768
650
200
768
650
200
TERMINAL II.3.3
300
300
200
300
300
200
TERMINAL II.3.4
450
400
200
450
400
200
TERMINAL II.3.5
180
180
180
180
180
180
NEW TERM. II.3.6
240
NEW TERM. II.3.7
240
NEW TERM. II.3.7
240
NEW TERM. II.3.8
240
Total
12,95
ZONE II.3
4.946
4.730
21,23
2.780
4.946
4.730
3.740
26.754
22.726
17,36
12.505
29.294
25.266
15.105
TERMINAL III.1.1
10.680
9.780
5.320
10.680
9.780
5.320
TERMINAL III.1.2
490
490
500
490
490
500
TERMINAL III.1.3
240
218
120
240
218
120
TERMINAL III.1.4
768
769
732
768
769
732
TERMINAL III.1.5
1.152
886
480
1.152
886
480
TERMINAL III.1.6
100
100
250
100
100
250
TERMINAL III.1.7
384
384
192
384
384
192
TERMINAL III.1.8
576
576
TERMINAL III.1.9
576
576
1.424
576
576
1.424
TERMINAL III.1.10
576
576
192
576
576
192
TERMINAL III.1.11
576
576
576
576
TERMINAL III.1.12
576
576
Total
TOTAL OF
REGION II
ZONE III.1
576
576
250
NEW TERM. III.1.13
250
960
960
1.040
NEW TERM. III.1.14
576
576
192
NEW TERM. III.1.15
480
480
49
TERMINAL AREA
Installed
lines

Penetration %
Waiting
list
Installed
lines
Lines in-use
Waiting
list
NEW TERM. III.1.16
500
500
NEW TERM. III.1.17
120
120
120
NEW TERM. III.1.18
384
384
384
NEW TERM. III.1.19
384
384
192
NEW TERM. III.1.20
180
180
60
NEW TERM. III.1.21
576
576
192
9.460
20.854
19.091
11.640
Total
ZONE III.2
16.694
14.931
20,64
TERMINAL III.2.1
5.000
1.650
1.000
5.000
1.650
1.000
TERMINAL III.2.2
384
288
240
384
288
240
TERMINAL III.2.3
1.000
910
400
1.000
910
400
TERMINAL III.2.4
576
353
192
576
353
192
NEW TERM. III.2.5
120
120
120
NEW TERM. III.2.6
180
180
60
NEW TERM. III.2.7
180
180
60
NEW TERM. III.2.8

Total
6.960
3.201
5.000
2.420
8,05
192
192
192
1.832
7.632
3.873
2.264
1.000
ZONE III.3
TERMINAL III.3.1
5.000
2.420
1.000
NEW TERM. III.3.2

NEW TERM. III.3.3
180
180
60
180
180
60
NEW TERM. III.3.4
180
180
60
NEW TERM. III.3.5
40
40
200
NEW TERM. III.3.6
384
384
192
NEW TERM. III.3.7
120
120
60
1.000
6.084
3.504
1.632
5.000
2.420
TERMINAL III.4.1
4.300
2.320
1.700
4.300
2.320
1.700
TERMINAL III.4.2
400
400
200
400
400
200
TERMINAL III.4.3
180
180
100
180
180
100
TERMINAL III.4.4
256
205
100
256
205
100
TERMINAL III.4.5
360
310
150
360
310
150
TERMINAL III.4.6
360
205
480
360
205
480
240
Total
10,10
ZONE III.4
NEW TERM. III.4.7

5.856
3.620
14,89
2.730
5.856
3.620
2.970
34.510
24.172
15,01
15.022
40.426
30.088
18.506
TERMINAL IV.1.1
9.792
6.196
9.792
6.196
TERMINAL IV.1.2
TERMINAL IV.1.3
256
246
256
246
TERMINAL IV.1.4
576
472
576
472
TERMINAL IV.1.5
TERMINAL IV.1.6
192
192
TERMINAL IV.1.7
440
293
440
293
TERMINAL IV.1.8
192
192
TERMINAL IV.1.9
180
19
180
19
TERMINAL IV.1.10
800
26
Total
TOTAL OF
REGION III
ZONE IV.1
800
26
NEW TERM. IV.1.11
NEW TERM. IV.1.12
NEW TERM. IV.1.13
50
TERMINAL AREA
Total
Installed
lines

Penetration %
12.428
7.252
11,77
Waiting
list
Installed
lines
Lines in-use
12.428
7.252
Waiting
list
ZONE IV.2
TERMINAL IV.2.1
2.400
1.558
2.400
1.558
TERMINAL IV.2.2
1.152
827
1.152
827
TERMINAL IV.2.3
684
349
684
349
TERMINAL IV.2.4
768
566
768
566
TERMINAL IV.2.5
600
289
600
289
5.604
3.589
15,49
5.604
3.589
18.032
10.841
12,79
18.032
10.841
TERMINAL V.1.1
10.096
10.048
2.500
10.096
10.048
2.500
TERMINAL V.1.2
256
256
250
256
256
250
TERMINAL V.1.3
384
340
100
384
340
100
TERMINAL V.1.4
256
256
256
256
TERMINAL V.1.5
512
410
300
512
410
300
TERMINAL V.1.6
256
256
200
256
256
200
TERMINAL V.1.7
384
384
50
384
384
50
TERMINAL V.1.8
384
384
100
384
384
100
TERMINAL V.1.9
640
530
200
640
530
200
TERMINAL V.1.10
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
TERMINAL V.1.11
896
896
896
896
TERMINAL V.1.12
504
490
250
504
490
250
TERMINAL V.1.13
356
356
100
356
356
100
TERMINAL V.1.14
256
150
180
256
150
180
TERMINAL V.1.15
512
512
100
512
512
100
TERMINAL V.1.16
256
240
180
256
240
180
TERMINAL V.1.17
320
192
300
320
192
300
TERMINAL V.1.18
256
180
200
256
180
200
17.524
16.880
6.010
20.854
19.091
11.640
TERMINAL V.2.1
3.000
1.500
300
3.000
1.500
300
TERMINAL V.2.2
160
160
100
160
160
100
N/A
400
3.160
1660
400
980
Total
TOTAL OF
REGION IV
ZONE V.1
Total
24,72
ZONE V.2
NEW TERM. V.2.3

3.160
1660
TERMINAL V.3.1
980
800
980
980
800
TERMINAL V.3.2
60
60
60
60
60
60
1040
860
4,75
500
1040
860
500
21.724
19.400
17,76
6.910
21.724
19.400
6.910
TERMINAL VI.1.1
6.000
4.009
1.000
6.000
4.009
1.000
TERMINAL VI.1.2
395
258
60
395
258
60
TERMINAL VI.1.3
800
695
1.000
800
695
1.000
TERMINAL VI.1.4
576
452
80
576
452
80
TERMINAL VI.1.5
384
349
100
384
349
100
TERMINAL VI.1.6
192
192
192
192
TERMINAL VI.1.7
974
974
TERMINAL VI.1.8
240
240
Total
7,26
ZONE V.3
Total
TOTAL OF
REGION V
ZONE VI.1
51
TERMINAL AREA
TERMINAL VI.1.9

Penetration %
768
285
768
285
TERMINAL VI.1.10
768
187
768
187
TERMINAL VI.1.11
160
26
160
26
TERMINAL VI.1.12
384
384
TERMINAL VI.1.13
384
384
TERMINAL VI.1.14
160
160
12.185
6.453
2.240
12.185
6.453
2.240
TERMINAL VI.2.1
3.000
1.633
100
3.000
1.633
100
TERMINAL VI.2.2
2.000
985
2.000
985
TERMINAL VI.2.3
800
683
200
800
683
200
TERMINAL VI.2.4
160
154
30
160
154
30
TERMINAL VI.2.5
160
160
6.120
3.455
330
6.120
3.455
330
3.000
3.000
3.000
3.000
1.912
1.430
1.000
1.912
1.430
1.000
1.912
1.430
6,04
1.000
1.912
1.430
1.000
23.217
11.338
8,08
3.570
23.217
11.338
3.570
TERMINAL VII.1.1
3.000
2.558
1.000
3.000
2.558
1.000
TERMINAL VII.1.2
550
205
550
205
TERMINAL VII.1.3
280
96
280
96
TERMINAL VII.1.4
320
319
500
320
319
500
TERMINAL VII.1.5
400
103
400
103
TERMINAL VII.1.6
2.000
750
5.000
2.000
750
5.000
Total
Installed
lines
11,28
Waiting
list
Installed
lines
Lines in-use
Waiting
list
ZONE VI.2
Total
11,27
ZONE VI.3
TERMINAL VI.3.1
Total
~10,40
ZONE VI.4
TERMINAL VI.4.1
Total
TOTAL OF
REGION VI
ZONE VII.1
NEW TERM. VII.1.7
100
60
60
100
6.600
6.610
4.091
6.700
1.597
1.000
2.220
1.597
1.000
133
180
133
60
60
60
200
60
200
60
60
6.610
4.091
TERMINAL VII.2.1
2.220
TERMINAL VII.2.2
180
TERMINAL VII.2.3
TERMINAL VII.2.4
Total
35,55
ZONE VII.2
TERMINAL VII.2.5
Total
180
30
2.700
1.764
600
200
600
200
500
490
500
490
1.000
950
1.000
950
21,22
11.410
7.495
21,60
16,80
180
30
1.200
2.700
1.764
1.200
600
200
600
200
200
500
490
200
200
500
490
200
500
1.000
950
500
500
1.000
950
500
8.500
11.410
7.495
8.500
ZONE VII.3
TERMINAL VII.3.1
Total
4,05
ZONE VII.4
TERMINAL VII.4.1
Total
14,91
ZONE VII.5
TERMINAL VII.5.1
Total
TOTAL OF
REGION VII
52
TERMINAL AREA
Installed
lines

Penetration %
Waiting
list
Installed
lines
Lines in-use
Waiting
list
ZONE VIII.1
TERMINAL VIII.1.1
5.048
4.060
500
5.048
4.060
500
TERMINAL VIII.1.2
384
301
384
301
TERMINAL VIII.1.3
120
120
TERMINAL VIII.1.4
100
57
100
57
TERMINAL VIII.1.5
60
60
5.712
4.418
500
5.712
4.418
500
TERMINAL VIII.2.1
3.010
1.473
300
3.010
1.473
300
TERMINAL VIII.2.2
60
60
TERMINAL VIII.2.3
20
20
3.090
1.473
300
3.090
1.473
300
TERMINAL VIII.3.1
1.200
714
300
1.200
714
300
TERMINAL VIII.3.2
400
391
400
391
TERMINAL VIII.3.3
384
217
384
217
1.984
1322
300
1.984
1322
300
TERMINAL VIII.4.1
3.000
1.927
400
3.000
1.927
400
TERMINAL VIII.4.2
120
120
TERMINAL VIII.4.3
180
56
180
56
TERMINAL VIII.4.4
60
31
60
31
TERMINAL VIII.4.5
TERMINAL VIII.4.6
140
140
140
140
3.500
2.154
400
3.500
2.154
400
900
895
100
900
895
100
900
895
14,22
100
900
895
100
15.186
10.262
13,98
1.600
15.186
10.262
1.600
6.000
5.800
2.000
6.000
5.800
2.000
6.000
5.800
2.000
6.000
5.800
2.000
1.680
1.200
1.680
1.200
1.680
1.200
1.680
1.200
1.000
900
1.000
1.000
900
1.000
1.000
900
1.000
1.000
900
1.000
TERMINAL IX.4.1
500
500
1.000
500
500
1.000
TERMINAL IX.4.1
20
20
20
20
TERMINAL IX.4.1
60
60
TERMINAL IX.4.1
200
200
780
520
1.000
780
520
1.000
2.400
2.180
1.000
2.400
2.180
1.000
2.400
2.180
23,29
1.000
2.400
2.180
1.000
11.860
10.600
20,42
5.000
11.860
10.600
5.000
Total
15,46
ZONE VIII.2
Total
9,57
ZONE VIII.3
Total
16,19
ZONE VIII.4
Total
14,40
ZONE VIII.5
TERMINAL VIII.5.1
Total
TOTAL OF
REGION VIII
ZONE IX.1
TERMINAL IX.1.1
Total
26,62
ZONE IX.2
TERMINAL IX.2.1
Total
15,69
ZONE IX.3
TERMINAL IX.3.1
Total
8,85
ZONE IX.4
Total
17,71
ZONE IX.5
TERMINAL IX.5.1
Total
TOTAL OF
REGION IX
53
TERMINAL AREA
Installed
lines
COUNTRY
TOTAL
265.057

Penetration %
206.004
Waiting
list
17,88 100.489
Installed
lines
276.381
Lines in-use
214.460
Waiting
list
121.285
Due to the lack of reliable historical data and the absence of development during the
last few years, it is not possible to make a projection, concerning the development and
the future demand based on historical evidence.
The comparison method (see par. 1.2.2.3) implies that the forecasting of the telephone
density in a country is based on previous developments in another, already more
developed country. This method can be used as guidance for getting an idea of the
long-term development, but there are hardly any two countries, which are developing
in parallel.
In such cases, an alternative method is employed for forecasting based on
Econometric Studies. This results into population estimates, concerning the net local
product, industrial, as well as agricultural. Information relative to all the abovementioned items is extremely poor, nevertheless the study is conducted using every
available piece of information and comparisons are made with similar situations in
Europe, as well as in the rest of the World. All these indicate the necessity of adapting
the ITU-T forecasting rules for a country like Republic which is under special
circumstances.
2.2 METHODOLOGY of SUBSCRIBER DEMAND

FORECASTING
In order to forecast the subscriber demand the following steps are taken:
a)
b)
c)
d)
Examination of historical data.

Identification of saturation level.
Residential subscriber forecasting, i.e.
- estimation of population
- estimation of the number of households
- estimation of residential subscribers.
Business subscriber forecasting, i.e.
- estimation of business subscribers growth rate
- estimation of business subscribers.
2.2.1 Examination of Historical Data

The data for the Republic PTT, to be used for the needs of subscriber forecasting
and demand forecasting, are assumed to be the following:
a)
Installed capacity of the corresponding Terminal exchanges (Table 2.1).
54
b)
c)
d)
e)
e)
f)
g)
h)
Connected (in use) capacity of the above mentioned Terminal exchanges (Table
2.1).
Incomplete waiting list per Terminal exchange area (see Table 2.1).
Population in years 1991 and 1993 and estimated population in the year 1996
(Table 2.2).
Number of Households for the years 1991, 1993 and an estimate for the year
1996 on a per group exchange area basis (see Table 2.3).
Historical data of the Former State of Republic, that had to do with the
occupation of the population in various activities (see Table 2.4),
Data that had to do with the economic development of the Former State of
Republic per group exchange area basis (see Table 2.4).
Historical data from the document MEDIUM-TERM DEVELOPMENT PLAN
91-95 PTT Former State of Republic (34).
Historical data from the document GENERAL PLAN OF TELEPHON
NETWORK PTT Former State of Republic (35).
Based on the degree of completion of the above data and taking into account the
assumed special conditions for the present, we have come to the conclusion that they
do not fulfil the necessary requirements for reliable input data to be used for the
application of one or more of the forecasting techniques mentioned in the previous
paragraph 2.1.
Table 2.1 presents historical data before and after the war. A detailed examination of
these data shows that:
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
g)
h)
i)
In certain zones there are no historical data of waiting lists (e.g. zone IV.1).
In certain zones there is no information available about lines in use (e.g. zone
VI.3).
In certain zones waiting list is just estimation (e.g. zone I.1).
In certain zones there is no available estimation about population, lines in use
and waiting lists are just estimation (e.g. zone I.7).
In certain zones there is a considerable difference (of the order of 50%) between
installed lines and in use lines because population evacuated the area.
There is a serious problem for the validation of the new Terminal exchange
areas, as well as for those areas (the areas of zones I.11 and I.12), which have
been recently integrated in the Republic, and for which there is no existing
infrastructure or information about it.
Special attention is given to the Region VII because of the dynamic situations
that have been formed concerning peoples mobilization and the installation of
the new Administrative center.
A total percentage of 22,28% of the installed capacity in the country is not in
use, while in some zones capacity is desperately needed.
The total penetration in the country is 17,88% but it shows a great variety
between the zones, ranging from 41,2% in zone I.1 of the Capital to 4,05% in
the mountainous zone VII.3.
2.2.2 Identification of Saturation Level

There are different mathematical methods for calculating the telephone density, with
some mathematical formulas, which comprise a saturation value (see par. 1.2.2.1).
55
The parameters in these formulas have to be estimated from the historical

development of the telephone density and a saturation value has to be assumed, which
is very difficult.
As a consequence, the development in countries, such as the Republic with a low
telephone density, will probably be much faster than other historical developments.
Table 1.2 illustrates the development of the subscriber density. Table 1.2 helps us to
identify the potential saturation value for a country under special circumstances, 20
years later. A target penetration value of 58% is expected, given the development
between years 1990 and 1996 of the telephone networks in the countries of the
Republics region.
2.2.3 Residential Subscriber Forecasting

2.2.3.1 Population Estimation per Terminal Exchange Area
A basic parameter for Subscriber Forecasting is the one describing the existing
population in a Terminal exchange area, as well as its projection for the next 20 years
at least.
Because of the situation after the war, with the scattering of the population to cities
and villages, as well as with their forced relocation, we assume that PTT would not be
able to provide data concerning the population per terminal exchange area. Therefore,
it is an absolute necessity to estimate the number of existing subscribers per Zone
exchange area, as well as to forecast its evolution for the next 20-years, in order to
develop the whole set of forecasting activities.
The data, concerning the population, should be considered as a gross sum per Zone
exchange area for the year 1991 (that is before the war), for the year 1993 (during the
war) and estimation for the year 1996. In table 2.2 we can see a decrease of
population. This is mainly due to emigration in order to avoid participation in war
activities. Based on the assumed information provided by the University of the
Capital of the Republic, the annual rate of population increase is estimated to be
1,5 %.
Table 2.2
Population Forecast
ZONE
AREA
Total Zone 1
Total Zone 2
Total Zone 3
Total Zone 4
Total Zone 5
Total Zone 6
Total Zone 7
Total Zone 8
Population Population Estimated Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted

Population Population Population Population Population
1991
1993
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
195.139
165.039
137.671
146119
157412
169577
182683
18.666
13.169
13.977
15.057
16.221
17.475
29.910
21.102
22.397
24.128
25.993
28.001
60.002
50.546
42.331
44.929
48.401
52.141
56.171
46.894
33.084
35.114
37.828
40.751
43.901
59.632
42.070
44.652
48.102
51.820
55.825
27.379
19.316
20.501
22.086
23.793
25.631
36.670
22.051
25.871
27.459
29.581
31.867
34.330
56
ZONE
AREA

1991
1993
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
Total Zone 9
14.615
13.720
13.698
14.539
15.662
16.873
18.177
Total Zone 10
21.660
6.256
6.256
6.640
7.153
7.706
8.301
Total Zone 11
15.553
10.973
11.646
12.546
13.516
14.561
Total Zone 12
13000*Esti
m
REGION I
526.120
257.612
365.541
387.972
417.956
450.257
485.055
Total Zone 1
Total Zone 2
Total Zone 3
REGION II
112.470
41.541
31.577
185.588
65.557
31.925
24.538
122.020
79.348
29.307
22.278
130.933
84.217
31.105
23.645
138.968
90.726
33.509
25.472
149.707
97.737
36.099
27.441
161.277
105.291
38.889
29.562
173.742
Total Zone 1
Total Zone 2
Total Zone 3
Total Zone 4
REGION III
86.243
56.828
33.517
35.413
212.001
48.014
21.487
11.882
17.592
98.975
72.346
39.739
23.960
24.984
161.029
76.785
42.178
25.430
26.517
170.910
82.720
45.437
27.396
28.566
184.119
89.113
48.949
29.513
30.774
198.348
96.000
52.732
31.794
33.153
213.678
Total Zone 1
Total Zone 2
REGION IV
56.629
24.113
80.742
22.416
15.882
38.298
61.613
23.165
84.778
65.394
24.586
89.980
70.448
26.487
96.934
75.892
28.534
104.426
81.757
30.739
112.496
Total Zone 1
Total Zone 2
Total Zone 3
REGION V
96.796
19.988
19.300
136.084
92.747
16.584
16.455
125.786
68.290
22.858
18.090
109.238
72.481
24.261
19.200
115.941
78.082
26.136
20.684
124.902
84.117
28.155
22.282
134.555
90.617
30.331
24.005
144.953
Total Zone 1
Total Zone 2
Total Zone 3
Total Zone 4
REGION VI
68.881
43.456
37.211
33.575
183.123
37.377
24.921
3.454
11.484
77.236
57.224
30.658
28.763
23.687
140.332
60.735
32.539
30.528
25.141
148.943
65.429
35.054
32.887
27.083
160.454
70.486
37.763
35.429
29.177
172.855
75.933
40.682
38.167
31.431
186.214
Total Zone 1
Total Zone 2
Total Zone 3
14.827
14.883
3.983
18.942
12.332
11.507
10.500
4.936
12.213
11.144
5.239
13.157
12.006
5.644
14.174
12.933
6.080
15.269
13.933
6.550
Total zone 4
Total Zone 5
REGION VII
4.282
6.085
44.060
4.580
4.044
39.898
3.286
4.477
34.706
3.488
4.752
36.836
3.757
5.119
39.682
4.048
5.515
42.749
4.360
5.941
46.053
Total Zone 1
35.520
17.072
28.582
30.336
32.680
35.206
37.927
57
ZONE
AREA
Total Zone 2

1991
1993
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
21.369
9.094
15.388
16.332
17.594
18.954
20.419
Total Zone 3
Total Zone 4
Total Zone 5
REGION VIII
11.572
21.202
8.918
98.581
7.342
7.760
5.623
46.891
8.164
14.958
6.292
73.384
8.665
15.876
6.678
77.887
9.335
17.103
7.194
83.907
10.056
18.425
7.750
90.391
10.833
19.849
8.349
97.377
Total Zone 1
Total Zone 2
Total Zone 3
29.162
10.844
13.752
26.178
9.510
19.076
21.785
7.650
10.174
23.122
8.119
10.798
24.909
8.747
11.633
26.834
9.423
12.532
28.908
10.151
13.500
Total Zone 4
Total Zone 5
REGION IX
4.088
13.269
71.115
4.350
12.926
72.040
2.936
9.361
51.906
3.116
9.935
55.091
3.357
10.703
59.349
3.616
11.530
63.936
3.896
12.422
68.877
COUNTRY 1.537.414
878.756 1.151.847 1.222.528 1.317.010 1.418.794 1.528.444
Based on the above-mentioned few and rather poor information, approximations for
the existing population per Zone exchange area were estimated for the year 1996 and
are presented in Table 2.2.
Then, using the previously mentioned rate of population increase of 1,5% per year,
the forecasting was applied on a 5-year increment basis, up to year 2016. The results
of this procedure are shown in Table 2.2.
2.2.3.2 Estimation of the Number of Households

The number of future households (10n) is calculated by dividing the estimated future
population by the average number of household members (Hi).
Estimated future population
Predicted number of households (Hi,t) =
Average number of household members
Based on recent historical trends, the average number of household members is
expected to remain the same as the present one. Data concerning the number of
Households for years 1991, 1993 and 1996 were provided as shown in Table 2.3. The
average number of household member ranges from 2.3 to 4.3 per Zone exchange area
and is given in tables 2.2 and 2.3 for the year 1991, with an adjustment due to the new
situation resulting from the demographic and social-economic conditions in the
Republic.
58
As a result, for each Group Exchange Area, we can calculate a special characteristic
number of inhabitants/households and, based on that and the above-mentioned factors,
household forecasts can be conducted for the future years, as shown in Table 2.3.
Table 2.3
Household Forecast
ZONE
AREA
Total Zone 1
Total Zone 2
Total Zone 3
Total Zone 4
Total Zone 5
Total Zone 6
Total Zone 7
Total Zone 8
Total Zone 9
Total Zone 10
Total Zone 11
Total Zone 12
REGION I
Total Zone 1
Total Zone 2
Total Zone 3
REGION II
Total Zone 1
Total Zone 2
Total Zone 3
Total Zone 4
REGION III
Total Zone 1
Total Zone 2
Households Households Households Households Households Households Households
1991
58.720
1993
2001
2006
2011
2016
41.718
44.278
47.701
51.387
55.358
4.829
3.466
3.678
3.962
4.269
4.599
8.992
6.206
6.587
7.096
7.645
8.236
17.254
50.151
1996
12.450
13.214
14.236
15.336
16.521
12.864
15.725
9.190
9.754
10.508
11.320
12.195
15.513
11.686
12.403
13.362
14.394
15.507
7.596
5.519
5.857
6.310
6.798
7.323
8.540
5.110
6.468
6.865
7.395
7.967
8.583
3.459
3.327
3.425
3.635
3.916
4.218
4.544
1.787
1.897
2.044
2.202
2.372
3.135
3.327
3.585
3.862
4.160
137.767
74.313
105.050
111.495
120.115
129.398
139.398
31.372
19.867
22.671
24.062
25.922
27.925
30.083
11.642
9.425
8.620
9.149
9.856
10.617
11.438
9.464
7.606
6.552
6.954
7.492
8.071
8.695
52.478
36.898
37.843
40.165
43.270
46.613
50.216
25.773
15.710
21.278
22.584
24.329
26.210
28.235
16.216
6.310
11.354
12.051
12.982
13.985
15.066
9.978
3.539
6.846
7.266
7.827
8.432
9.084
9.763
4.902
7.138
7.576
8.162
8.793
9.472
61.730
30.461
46.616
49.477
53.300
57.420
61.857
16.684
7.097
17.604
18.684
20.128
21.683
23.359
6.858
4.781
6.619
7.025
7.568
8.153
8.783
23.542
11.878
24.223
25.709
27.696
29.836
32.142
27.607
26.077
19.511
20.709
22.309
24.033
25.891
5.670
4.606
6.531
6.932
7.467
8.044
8.666
5.356
4.702
5.169
5.486
5.910
6.366
6.859
38.633
35.385
31.211
33.127
35.686
38.443
41.416
17.989
10.229
16.350
17.353
18.694
20.139
21.695
11.594
7.634
8.759
9.297
10.015
10.789
11.623
8.640
985
8.218
8.722
9.396
10.123
10.905
REGION IV
Total Zone 1
Total Zone 2
Total Zone 3
REGION V
Total Zone 1
Total Zone 2
Total Zone 3
59
ZONE
AREA
Total Zone 4
REGION VI
Total Zone 1
Total Zone 2
Total Zone 3
Total Zone 4
Total Zone 5
REGION VII
Total Zone 1
Total Zone 2
Total Zone 3
Total Zone 4
Total Zone 5
REGION VIII
Total Zone 1
Total Zone 2
Total Zone 3
Total Zone 4
Total Zone 5
REGION IX
COUNTRY
Households Households Households Households Households Households Households
1991
1993
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
7.919
3.055
5.922
6.285
6.771
7.294
7.858
46.142
21.903
39.249
41.657
44.876
48.345
52.081
4.365
5.323
3.288
3.489
3.759
4.050
4.363
4.432
3.702
3.182
3.377
3.638
3.919
4.222
1.410
1.497
1.613
1.737
1.871
1.157
1.401
1.294
996
1.057
1.138
1.227
1.321
1.919
1.302
1.492
1.584
1.706
1.838
1.980
13.274
11.621
10.368
11.004
11.854
12.771
13.757
10.632
5.342
8.166
8.667
9.337
10.059
10.836
9.094
2.863
5.129
5.444
5.865
6.318
6.806
3.391
2.269
3.024
3.209
3.457
3.724
4.012
6.338
2.638
4.674
4.961
5.345
5.758
6.203
2.592
1.705
1.907
2.024
2.180
2.348
2.530
32.047
14.817
22.900
24.305
26.184
28.207
30.387
8.329
7.498
6.224
6.606
7.117
7.667
8.260
2.897
2.496
2.186
2.320
2.500
2.692
2.900
3.667
4.859
2.907
3.085
3.324
3.581
3.857
1.088
1.171
839
890
959
1.033
1.113
3.605
3.242
2.675
2.839
3.058
3.294
3.549
19.586
19.266
14.831
15.740
16.958
18.267
19.679
425.199 256.542 332.291 352.679 379.939 409.300 440.933
2.2.3.3 Estimation of Residential Subscribers

It is obvious that the main difficulty lies on the calculation of the existing situation per
Terminal exchange area. Since this was proven to be impossible, for the previously
mentioned reasons, an approximation should be made, on the level of Zones.
For the above-mentioned approximation, the following were taken into account:
a)
b)
c)
d)
The installed capacity of the corresponding Terminal exchanges (Table 2.1).

The connected (in use) capacity of the above mentioned Terminal exchanges
(Table 2.1).
The total population estimation on a per group area exchange basis (Table 2.2).
The existing penetration (% of population having a main telephone line) per
group area exchange (Table 2.1).
The total number of residential subscribers is calculated on the basis that there is at
least one telephone per household.
60
2.2.4 Business Subscriber Forecasting

The forecasting procedure is divided in the following two steps:
2.2.4.1 Estimation of Business Subscribers Growth Rate

The first step is the determination of the growth rate for business subscribers. This
estimation is based on the assumption that the growth rate for business subscribers is
equal to the growth rate of GDP during the forecasted period. Thus, a growth rate of
2.5% is expected for GDP and the same amount is considered as the average growth
rate for business subscribers.
2.2.4.2 Estimation of Business Subscribers

The second step is the estimation of the countrys business model, i.e. the various
activities and the distribution of the employees in these activities. In the case of the
Republic, the number of employees in the main financial activities for the year 1990
is shown in table 2.4.
A model, based on the number of employees, has been established to forecast the
number of the business subscribers.
The number of the Business Subscribers is calculated on the basis of the percentage of
the people occupied in Business in each particular area and a factor, which depends on
the Economic Development of the area and its special perspectives. It is assumed that
in the year 1996, the number of employees was the one of the year 1990, corrected by
the average percentage of population change between the years 1990-1996.
Additionally, special treatment is provided concerning the urban and more developed
area of the Capital (Terminal area I.1).
Finally, special attention is given to the area VII because of the de facto dynamic
situations that have been formed considering peoples mobilization and installation of
the Administrative Center.
Table 2.4
Occupation of population in various activities for the year 1990 in former
Republic
ZONE
AREA
Total Zone I.1
Total Zone I.2
Total Zone I.3
Total Zone I.4
Total Zone I.5
Total Zone I.6
Total Zone I.7
Total Zone I.8
Total Zone I.9
Total number
of employees
63.325
3.449
4.562
14.387
6.180
8.592
5.289
4.389
2.648
Percentage
National
of employees
revenues(1.000DM)
18,42
893.283
1,00
42.171
1,33
73.195
4,19
256.931
1,80
278.018
2,50
122.784
1,54
68.915
1,28
52.942
0,77
30.893
61
GDP
(1.000DM)
1.016.436
48.399
79.209
286.135
333.618
141.156
81.780
62.596
34.720
ZONE
AREA
Total Zone I.10
Total Zone I.11
Total Zone I.12
REGION I
Total number
of employees
4.300
3.660
Percentage
National
of employees
revenues(1.000DM)
1,25
56.550
1,065
120.781
Total Zone II.1

Total Zone II.2
Total Zone II.3
23.822
8.928
7.719
REGION II
GDP
(1.000DM)
63.327
1.875.682
2.147.376
278.018
116.874
113.281
333.618
128.386
134.432
40.469
6,93
2,60
2,25
11,77
508.173
596.436
Total Zone III.1

Total Zone III.2
Total Zone III.3
Total Zone III.4
22.128
11.750
8.954
6,44
3,42
2,60
304.673
150.550
253.050
344.367
169.230
283.762
REGION III
42.832
12,46
708.273
797.359
17.260
6.279
5,02
1,83
6,85
106.581
122.896
106.581
122.896
260.863
50.626
84.186
295.769
56.855
157.914
395.675
510.538
312.496
110.990
32.189
53.364
361.489
128.633
36.072
60.671
509.039
586.865
71.651
62.011
13.818
12.410
33.725
87.776
78.968
16.384
13.997
37.937
193.615
235.062
Total Zone 1
Total Zone 2
REGION IV
23.539
Total Zone 1
Total Zone 2
Total Zone 3
14.059
3.546
4.325
REGION V
21.930
Total Zone 1
Total Zone 2
Total Zone 3
Total Zone 4
15.075
6.370
6.803
3.726
REGION VI
Total Zone 1
Total Zone 2
Total Zone 3
Total Zone 4
Total Zone 5
REGION VII
Total Zone 1
Total Zone 2
Total Zone 3
Total Zone 4
Total Zone 5
REGION VIII
Total Zone 1
Total Zone 2
Total Zone 3
4,09
1,03
1,26
6,38
4,39
1,85
1,98
1,08
9,30
31.974
5.152
4.720
1.734
1.299
2.234
1,50
1,37
0,50
0,38
0,65
4,40
15.139
10.288
4.823
1.562
4.786
2.667
119.077
59.747
15.995
96.089
26.740
144.114
67.138
17.889
174.443
30.270
24.126
2,99
1,40
0,45
1,39
0,78
7,02
317.648
433.854
11.455
3.454
2.733
3,33
1,00
0,79
133.272
39.697
36.094
166.817
99.736
41.357
62
ZONE
AREA
Total Zone 4
Total Zone 5
REGION IX
COUNTRY
Total number
of employees
1.386
3.918
22.946
Percentage
National
of employees
revenues(1.000DM)
0,40
17.623
1,14
42.281
6,68
268.967
343.736
100
4.883.653
GDP
(1.000DM)
19.447
49.517
376.874
5.807.260
2.2.5 Total Subscriber Forecasting

With the followed methodology, all households up to the year 2016 are supplied with
at least one main line, as far as telephony provision is concerned, and special
emphasis and attention is given to the satisfaction of the needs of the business
subscribers.
After taking into account all the above-mentioned facts, Subscriber Forecasting is
shown in Table 2.5, with final year 2016. The results lead to an average Penetration of
58,06 % for the whole Country, although this Penetration figure varies for each
particular region.
TABLE 2.5
Subscriber demand forecasting per terminal area

TERMINAL
AREA
TERMINAL I.1.2
TERMINAL I.1.3
TERMINAL I.1.4
TERMINAL I.1.5
TERMINAL I.1.6
TERMINAL I.1.7
TERMINAL I.1.8
TERMINAL I.1.9
TERMINAL I.1.10
TERMINAL I.1.11
TERMINAL I.1.12
TERMINAL I.1.13
TERMINAL I.1.14
TERMINAL I.1.15
TERMINAL I.1.16
TERMINAL I.1.17
TERMINAL I.1.18
NEW TERM. I.1.19
NEW TERM. I.1.20
NEW TERM. I.1.21
NEW TERM. I.1.22
Existing Demand
Demand
Demand
Demand Demand
Lines
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
50.244
65.317
89.355
108.852
122.863
127.360
1.000
500
2.000
960
768
240
384
180
384
384
768
240
192
360
214
256
256
1.300
650
2.600
1.248
998
312
499
234
499
499
998
312
250
468
278
333
333
130
390
390
130
1.778
889
3.557
1.707
1.365
427
683
320
683
683
1.365
427
342
640
380
456
456
178
534
534
178
63
2.166
1.083
4.333
2.080
1.663
520
832
390
832
832
1.663
520
417
780
463
555
555
217
650
650
217
2.445
1.223
4.891
2.348
1.877
587
939
440
939
939
1.877
587
470
880
523
626
626
245
734
734
245
2.535
1.267
5.070
2.433
1.946
608
973
456
973
973
1.946
608
487
913
542
649
649
253
760
760
253
TERMINAL
AREA
NEW TERM. I.1.30
Total Zone I.1

TERMINAL I.2.1
TERMINAL I.2.2
NEW TERM. I.2.3
Existing
Lines
Demand
Demand
Demand
Demand Demand
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
390
534
650
734
760
59.330
78.558
107.469
130.918
147.770
153.178
1.600
240
300
NEW TERM. I.2.4

NEW TERM. I.2.5
Total Zone I.2
2.140
TERMINAL I.3.1
2.000
960
240
TERMINAL I.3.2
NEW TERM. I.3.3
NEW TERM. I.3.4
Total Zone I.3
3.200
TERMINAL I.4.1
5.448
512
128
256
1.024
180
768
384
384
TERMINAL I.4.2
TERMINAL I.4.3
TERMINAL I.4.4
TERMINAL I.4.5
TERMINAL I.4.6
TERMINAL I.4.7
TERMINAL I.4.8
TERMINAL I.4.9
NEW TERM. I.4.10
NEW TERM. I.4.11
NEW TERM. I.4.12
Total Zone I.4
9.084
TERMINAL I.5.1
3.672
214
214
214
420
672
214
900
360
300
214
60
214
214
60
240
TERMINAL I.5.2
TERMINAL I.5.3
TERMINAL I.5.4
TERMINAL I.5.5
TERMINAL I.5.6
TERMINAL I.5.7
TERMINAL I.5.8
TERMINAL I.5.9
TERMINAL I.5.10
TERMINAL I.5.11
TERMINAL I.5.12
TERMINAL I.5.13
TERMINAL I.5.14
TERMINAL I.5.15
NEW TERM. I.5.16
NEW TERM. I.5.17
3.040
456
570
1.330
190
5.586
4.180
627
784
1.829
261
7.681
4.905
736
920
2.146
307
9.013
5.228
784
980
2.287
327
9.606
5.490
824
1.029
2.402
343
10.088
3.800
1.824
456
760
6.840
5.426
2.604
651
1.085
9.766
7.338
3.522
881
1.468
13.208
8.800
4.224
1.056
1.760
15.840
9.320
4.473
1.118
1.864
16.775
9.262
870
218
435
1.741
306
1.306
653
653
510
680
255
16.888
12.735
1.196
300
598
2.394
421
1.796
898
898
701
935
351
23.221
14.943
1.404
352
702
2.809
494
2.107
1.054
1.054
823
1.097
411
27.247
16.398
1.540
386
770
3.082
542
2.312
1.156
1.156
903
1.204
451
29.900
17.187
1.614
405
807
3.231
568
2.423
1.212
1.212
946
1.262
473
31.338
5.508
321
321
321
630
1.008
321
1.350
540
450
321
90
321
321
90
360
225
7.601
443
443
443
869
1.391
443
1.863
745
621
443
124
443
443
124
497
310
11.154
650
650
650
1.276
2.041
650
2.734
1.094
911
650
182
650
650
182
729
456
10.063
586
586
586
1.151
1.842
586
2.466
987
822
586
164
586
586
164
658
411
10.475
610
610
610
1.198
1.917
610
2.567
1.027
856
610
171
610
610
171
685
428
64
TERMINAL
AREA
Total Zone I.5
TERMINAL I.6.1
TERMINAL I.6.2
TERMINAL I.6.3
TERMINAL I.6.4
NEW TERM. I.6.5
NEW TERM. I.6.6
NEW TERM. I.6.7
NEW TERM. I.6.8
NEW TERM. I.6.9
Existing Demand
Demand
Demand
Demand Demand
Lines
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
8.182
12.498
17.247
20807
22.833
23.768
6.000
424
480
152
20
20
20
384
384
NEW TERM. I.6.10
Total Zone I.6
7.884
9.000
636
720
228
525
525
525
576
576
300
13.611
12.938
914
1.035
328
755
755
755
828
828
431
19.566
16.736
1.183
1.339
424
976
976
976
1.071
1.071
558
25.310
19.693
1.392
1.575
499
1.149
1.149
1.149
1.260
1.260
656
29.782
20.893
1.476
1.671
529
1.219
1.219
1.219
1.337
1.337
696
31.597
7.837
1.004
522
627
104
627
522
11.244
9.196
1.178
613
736
123
736
613
13.194
9.801
1.255
653
784
131
784
653
14.062
10.281
1.317
685
822
137
822
685
14.751
TERMINAL I.7.1
TERMINAL I.7.2
Total Zone I.7
4.104
5.700
730
380
456
76
456
380
8.178
TERMINAL I.8.1
1.600
576
576
576
240
180
3.748
2.560
922
922
922
384
288
5.997
3.776
1.360
1.360
1.360
566
425
8.845
5.012
1.805
1.805
1.805
752
564
11.742
5.794
2.087
2.087
2.087
869
652
13.572
6.296
2.267
2.267
2.267
944
708
14.748
960
2.400
500
500
500
3.900
3.744
780
780
780
6.084
4.926
1.026
1.026
1.026
8.004
5.270
1.098
1.098
1.098
8.563
5.432
1.132
1.132
1.132
8.827
1.820
224
224
806
269
269
280
2.198
271
271
973
325
325
338
2.385
294
294
1.056
352
352
367
2.498
307
307
1.106
369
369
384
2.650
326
326
1.174
392
392
408
TERMINAL I.7.3
TERMINAL I.7.4
TERMINAL I.7.5
NEW TERM. I.7.6
NEW TERM. I.7.7
3.000
384
200
240
40
240
NEW TERM. I.7.8
TERMINAL I.8.2
TERMINAL I.8.3
TERMINAL I.8.4
TERMINAL I.8.5
TERMINAL I.8.6
Total Zone I.8

TERMINAL I.9.1
NEW TERM. I.9.2
NEW TERM. I.9.3
NEW TERM. I.9.4
Total Zone I.9

TERMINAL I.10.1
TERMINAL I.10.2
TERMINAL I.10.3
TERMINAL I.10.4
TERMINAL I.10.5
TERMINAL I.10.6
NEW TERM. I.10.6
960
1.300
160
160
576
192
192
65
TERMINAL
AREA
Total Zone I.10
TERMINAL I.11.1
NEW TERM. I.11.2
NEW TERM. I.11.3
Existing Demand
Demand
Demand
Demand Demand
Lines
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2.580
3.892
4.700
5.100
5.342
5.667
3.000
200
160
3.360
4.800
320
256
160
160
160
5.856
6.300
420
336
210
210
210
7.686
6.849
457
365
228
228
228
8.356
7.161
477
382
239
239
239
8.736
7.623
508
407
254
254
254
9.300
240
240
0
180
0
660
720
720
300
540
0
2.580
1.076
1.076
448
807
0
3.857
1.348
1.348
562
1.011
0
4.830
1.551
1.551
646
1.163
0
5.558
1.786
1.786
744
1.340
0
6.400
105.232
164.384
227.366
277.729
311.564
326.437
11.736
768
768
384
384
480
214
214
214
800
180
180
180
180
214
214
120
19.010
18.102
1.306
1.306
653
653
816
364
364
364
1.360
306
306
306
306
364
364
204
170
170
170
2.720
306
170
170
170
31.487
27.859
2.010
2.010
1.005
1.005
1.256
560
560
560
2.093
471
471
471
471
560
560
314
262
262
262
4.186
471
262
262
262
48.459
32.821
2.368
2.368
1.184
1.184
1.480
660
660
660
2.466
555
555
555
555
660
660
370
308
308
308
4.932
555
308
308
308
57.090
35.848
2.586
2.586
1.293
1.293
1.616
721
721
721
2.693
606
606
606
606
721
721
404
337
337
337
5.386
606
337
337
337
62.354
37.808
2.728
2.728
1.364
1.364
1.704
760
760
760
2.841
639
639
639
639
760
760
426
355
355
355
5.681
639
355
355
355
65.765
3.048
5.486
8.147
9.598
10.483
11.094
NEW TERM. I.11.4

NEW TERM. I.11.5
NEW TERM. I.11.6
Total Zone I.11

NEW TERM. I.12.1
NEW TERM. I.12.2
NEW TERM. I.12.3
NEW TERM. I.12.4
NEW TERM. I.12.5
Total Zone I.12
REGION I
TERMINAL II.1.1
TERMINAL II.1.2
TERMINAL II.1.3
TERMINAL II.1.4
TERMINAL II.1.5
TERMINAL II.1.6
TERMINAL II.1.7
TERMINAL II.1.8
TERMINAL II.1.9
TERMINAL II.1.10
TERMINAL II.1.11
TERMINAL II.1.12
TERMINAL II.1.13
TERMINAL II.1.14
TERMINAL II.1.15
TERMINAL II.1.16
TERMINAL II.1.17
NEW TERM. II.1.18
NEW TERM. II.1.19
NEW TERM. II.1.20
NEW TERM. II.1.21
NEW TERM. II.1.22
1.600
180
NEW TERM. II.1.23

NEW TERM. II.1.24
NEW TERM. II.1.25
Total Zone II.1

TERMINAL II.2.1
66
TERMINAL
AREA
TERMINAL II.2.2
TERMINAL II.2.3
TERMINAL II.2.4
TERMINAL II.2.5
TERMINAL II.2.6
TERMINAL II.2.7
NEW TERM. II.2.8
NEW TERM. II.2.9
NEW TERM. II.2.10
NEW TERM. II.2.11
NEW TERM. II.2.12
NEW TERM. II.2.13
Total Zone II.2

TERMINAL II.3.1
Existing Demand
Demand
Demand
Demand Demand
Lines
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
60
108
160
189
206
218
240
432
642
756
826
874
180
324
481
567
619
655
180
324
481
567
619
655
270
486
722
850
929
983
600
1.080
1.604
1.889
2.064
2.184
180
324
481
567
619
655
180
324
481
567
619
655
160
288
428
504
550
582
60
108
160
189
206
218
180
324
481
567
619
655
0
180
267
315
344
364
5.338
9.788
14.536
17.124
18.704
19.795
3.248
768
300
450
180
0
0
0
0
4.946
4.872
1.152
450
675
270
150
150
150
150
8.019
6.699
1.584
619
928
371
206
206
206
206
11.026
8.237
1.948
761
1.141
456
254
254
254
254
13.557
9.122
2.157
843
1.264
506
281
281
281
281
15.014
9.674
2.287
893
1.340
536
298
298
298
298
15.922
REGION II
29.294
49.294
74.021
87.771
96.072
101.481
TERMINAL III.1.1
10.680
490
240
768
1.152
100
384
576
576
576
576
576
960
576
480
500
120
384
384
180
576
14.952
686
336
1.075
1.613
140
538
806
806
806
806
806
1.344
806
672
700
168
538
538
252
806
19.736
906
444
1.419
2.129
185
710
1.064
1.064
1.064
1.064
1.064
1.774
1.064
887
924
222
710
710
333
1.064
23.251
1.067
523
1.672
2.508
218
837
1.253
1.253
1.253
1.253
1.253
2.090
1.253
1.045
1.089
261
837
837
392
1.253
25.395
1.165
571
1.826
2.740
238
914
1.369
1.369
1.369
1.369
1.369
2.283
1.369
1.141
1.189
285
914
914
428
1.369
27.075
1.242
608
1.947
2.921
254
974
1.459
1.459
1.459
1.459
1.459
2.434
1.459
1.217
1.268
304
974
974
456
1.459
TERMINAL II.3.2
TERMINAL II.3.3
TERMINAL II.3.4
TERMINAL II.3.5
NEW TERM. II.3.6
NEW TERM. II.3.7
NEW TERM. II.3.7
NEW TERM. II.3.8
Total Zone II.3
TERMINAL III.1.2
TERMINAL III.1.3
TERMINAL III.1.4
TERMINAL III.1.5
TERMINAL III.1.6
TERMINAL III.1.7
TERMINAL III.1.8
TERMINAL III.1.9
TERMINAL III.1.10
TERMINAL III.1.11
TERMINAL III.1.12
NEW TERM. III.1.13
NEW TERM. III.1.14
NEW TERM. III.1.15
NEW TERM. III.1.16
NEW TERM. III.1.17
NEW TERM. III.1.18
NEW TERM. III.1.19
NEW TERM. III.1.20
NEW TERM. III.1.21
67
TERMINAL
AREA
Total Zone III.1
TERMINAL III.2.1
Existing Demand
Demand
Demand
Demand Demand
Lines
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
20.854
29.196
38.538
45.402
49.588
52.867
5.000
384
1.000
576
120
180
180
192
7.632
7.000
538
1.400
806
168
252
252
269
10.685
10.248
788
2.050
1.180
246
369
369
394
15.643
14.203
1.092
2.841
1.635
341
511
511
546
21.680
16.405
1.261
3.281
1.889
394
591
591
630
25.041
17.729
1.363
3.546
2.041
425
638
638
681
27.062
5.000
180
180
180
40
384
120
6.084
7.000
252
252
252
56
538
168
8.518
9.659
348
348
348
77
742
232
11.754
11.435
412
412
412
91
879
274
13.915
12.915
465
465
465
103
993
310
15.716
13.746
495
495
495
110
1.056
330
16.727
4.300
400
180
256
360
360
0
5.856
6.020
560
252
358
504
504
140
8.338
8.226
765
344
489
689
689
191
11.394
10.114
941
423
601
847
847
235
14.009
11.201
1.042
469
666
938
938
260
15.514
11.841
1.102
496
704
991
991
275
16.401
REGION III
40.426
56.737
77.329
95.006
105.859
113.057
TERMINAL IV.1.1
9.792
0
256
576
0
192
440
192
180
800
0
0
0
12.428
13.709
140
358
806
140
269
616
269
252
1.120
140
140
140
18.099
20.070
205
524
1.180
205
394
902
394
369
1.640
205
205
205
26.497
27.817
284
726
1.635
284
546
1.250
546
511
2.273
284
284
284
36.725
32.129
328
839
1.889
328
630
1.444
630
591
2.625
328
328
328
42.418
33.738
345
881
1.984
345
662
1.516
662
620
2.756
345
345
345
44.541
2.400
3.360
4.830
5.798
6.151
6.503
TERMINAL III.2.2
TERMINAL III.2.3
TERMINAL III.2.4
NEW TERM. III.2.5
NEW TERM. III.2.6
NEW TERM. III.2.7
NEW TERM. III.2.8
Total Zone III.2

TERMINAL III.3.1
NEW TERM. III.3.2
NEW TERM. III.3.3
NEW TERM. III.3.4
NEW TERM. III.3.5
NEW TERM. III.3.6
NEW TERM. III.3.7
Total Zone III.3

TERMINAL III.4.1
TERMINAL III.4.2
TERMINAL III.4.3
TERMINAL III.4.4
TERMINAL III.4.5
TERMINAL III.4.6
NEW TERM. III.4.7
Total Zone III.4
TERMINAL IV.1.2
TERMINAL IV.1.3
TERMINAL IV.1.4
TERMINAL IV.1.5
TERMINAL IV.1.6
TERMINAL IV.1.7
TERMINAL IV.1.8
TERMINAL IV.1.9
TERMINAL IV.1.10
NEW TERM. IV.1.11
NEW TERM. IV.1.12
NEW TERM. IV.1.13
Total Zone IV.1

TERMINAL IV.2.1
68
TERMINAL
AREA
TERMINAL IV.2.2
TERMINAL IV.2.3
TERMINAL IV.2.4
TERMINAL IV.2.5
Total Zone IV.2
Existing Demand
Demand
Demand
Demand Demand
Lines
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
1.152
1.613
2.319
2.783
2.953
3.122
684
958
1.377
1.653
1.754
1.854
768
1.075
1.545
1.855
1.968
2.081
600
840
1.207
1.449
1.538
1.626
5.604
7.846
11.278
13.539
14.363
15.185
REGION IV
18.032
25.945
37.775
50.264
56.781
59.726
TERMINAL V.1.1
10.096
256
384
256
512
256
384
384
640
1.000
896
504
356
256
512
256
320
256
17.524
14.134
358
538
358
717
358
538
538
896
1.400
1.254
706
498
358
717
358
448
358
24.534
20.317
515
773
515
1.031
515
773
773
1.288
2.012
1.803
1.015
716
515
1.031
515
644
515
35.267
24.392
618
928
618
1.237
618
928
928
1.546
2.416
2.164
1.218
859
618
1.237
618
773
618
42.340
25.875
655
985
655
1.313
655
985
985
1.640
2.563
2.296
1.292
912
655
1.313
655
820
655
44.914
27.042
685
1.029
685
1.372
685
1.029
1.029
1.714
2.679
2.399
1.351
953
685
1.372
685
857
685
46.940
3.000
160
3.160
4.500
150
240
4.890
7.290
243
389
7.922
10.104
337
539
10.980
12.575
419
671
13.665
13.917
464
742
15.123
980
60
1.040
1.960
120
2.080
4.940
302
5.242
7.290
446
7.736
8.234
504
8.738
9.505
582
10.087
21.724
31.504
48.431
61.056
67.317
72.150
6.000
395
800
576
384
192
974
240
768
7.800
514
1.040
749
499
250
1.266
312
998
12.636
833
1.685
1.213
808
405
2.051
505
1.617
17.096
1.127
2.279
1.642
1.094
548
2.775
684
2.187
18.580
1.224
2.477
1.784
1.189
596
3.016
743
2.377
20.337
1.340
2.712
1.953
1.301
652
3.301
813
2.602
TERMINAL V.1.2
TERMINAL V.1.3
TERMINAL V.1.4
TERMINAL V.1.5
TERMINAL V.1.6
TERMINAL V.1.7
TERMINAL V.1.8
TERMINAL V.1.9
TERMINAL V.1.10
TERMINAL V.1.11
TERMINAL V.1.12
TERMINAL V.1.13
TERMINAL V.1.14
TERMINAL V.1.15
TERMINAL V.1.16
TERMINAL V.1.17
TERMINAL V.1.18
Total Zone V.1

TERMINAL V.2.1
TERMINAL V.2.2
NEW TERM. V.2.3
Total Zone V.2

TERMINAL V.3.1
TERMINAL V.3.2
Total Zone V.3
REGION V
TERMINAL VI.1.1
TERMINAL VI.1.2
TERMINAL VI.1.3
TERMINAL VI.1.4
TERMINAL VI.1.5
TERMINAL VI.1.6
TERMINAL VI.1.7
TERMINAL VI.1.8
TERMINAL VI.1.9
69
TERMINAL
AREA
TERMINAL VI.1.10
TERMINAL VI.1.11
TERMINAL VI.1.12
TERMINAL VI.1.13
TERMINAL VI.1.14
TERMINAL VI.1.15
Total Zone VI.1

TERMINAL VI.2.1
Existing Demand
Demand
Demand
Demand Demand
Lines
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
0
130
211
285
310
339
768
998
1.617
2.187
2.377
2.602
160
208
337
456
495
542
384
499
808
1.094
1.189
1.301
384
499
808
1.094
1.189
1.301
160
208
337
456
495
542
12.185
15.971
25.872
35.005
38.043
41.642
3.000
2.000
800
160
160
6.120
3.750
2.500
1.000
200
200
7.650
5.850
3.900
1.560
312
312
11.934
8.634
5.756
2.302
460
460
17.614
9.384
6.256
2.502
500
500
19.143
10.033
6.689
2.675
535
535
20.467
3.000
3.000
5.100
5.100
9.282
9.282
14.570
14.570
16.194
16.194
17.881
17.881
1.912
1.912
3.250
3.250
7.736
7.736
12.370
12.370
13.443
13.443
14.835
14.835
REGION VI
23.217
31.971
54.824
79.559
86.823
94.825
TERMINAL VII.1.1
3.000
550
280
320
400
2.000
5.123
940
478
546
683
3.415
102
11.288
5.891
1.081
550
628
785
3.927
118
12.981
6.342
1.164
592
677
846
4.228
127
13.975
6.837
1.254
638
729
912
4.558
137
15.066
TERMINAL VI.2.2
TERMINAL VI.2.3
TERMINAL VI.2.4
TERMINAL VI.2.5
Total Zone VI.2

TERMINAL VI.3.1
Total Zone VI.3

TERMINAL VI.4.1
Total Zone VI.4
Total Zone VII.1
6.550
4.050
743
378
432
540
2.700
81
8.924
TERMINAL VII.2.1
2.220
180
60
60
180
2.700
2.553
207
69
69
207
3.105
4.136
335
112
112
335
5.030
6.104
495
165
165
495
7.424
6.635
538
179
179
538
8.069
7.104
576
192
192
576
8.640
600
600
900
900
1.580
1.580
2.487
2.487
3.010
3.010
3.297
3.297
500
500
750
750
1.260
1.260
1.905
1.905
2.159
2.159
2.379
2.379
1.000
1.500
2.430
3.013
3.339
3.725
TERMINAL VII.1.2
TERMINAL VII.1.3
TERMINAL VII.1.4
TERMINAL VII.1.5
TERMINAL VII.1.6
NEW TERM. VII.1.7
TERMINAL VII.2.2
TERMINAL VII.2.3
TERMINAL VII.2.4
TERMINAL VII.2.5
Total Zone VII.2

TERMINAL VII.3.1
Total Zone VII.3

TERMINAL VII.4.1
Total Zone VII.4

TERMINAL VII.5.1
70
TERMINAL
AREA
Total Zone VII.4
Existing
Lines
Demand
1996
Demand
2001
Demand
2006
Demand
2011
Demand
2016
1.000
1.500
2.430
3.013
3.339
3.725
REGION VII
11.410
15.179
21.588
27.810
30.552
33.107
TERMINAL VIII.1.1
5.048
384
120
100
60
5.712
5.805
442
138
115
69
6.569
9.403
716
224
186
112
10.641
14.219
1.083
338
282
169
16.090
16.110
1.227
383
319
191
18.230
17.341
1.320
412
344
206
19.623
3.010
60
20
3.090
3.913
78
26
4.017
6.340
126
42
6.508
8.576
171
57
8.804
9.502
189
63
9.755
10.222
204
68
10.493
1.200
400
384
1.984
1.560
520
499
2.579
2.153
718
689
3.559
2.670
890
854
4.414
2.958
986
946
4.891
3.223
1.074
1.031
5.328
3.000
120
180
60
0
140
3.500
3.750
150
225
75
125
175
4.500
5.625
225
338
113
188
263
6.750
6.977
279
419
140
233
326
8.372
7.729
309
464
155
258
361
9.275
8.528
341
512
171
284
398
10.234
TERMINAL VIII.5.1
900
1.170
2.129
3.219
3.822
4.278
Total Zone VIII.5
900
1.170
2.129
3.219
3.822
4.278
15.186
18.835
29.587
40.899
45.973
49.957
6.000
6.000
7.200
7.200
10.368
10.368
13.917
13.917
14.983
14.983
16.209
16.209
1.680
1.680
1.848
1.848
2.661
2.661
4.023
4.023
4.776
4.776
5.163
5.163
1.000
1.000
1.600
1.600
2.912
2.912
4.770
4.770
5.662
5.662
6.271
6.271
500
20
60
550
22
66
792
32
95
1.071
43
129
1.244
50
149
1.391
56
167
TERMINAL VIII.1.2
TERMINAL VIII.1.3
TERMINAL VIII.1.4
TERMINAL VIII.1.5
Total Zone VIII.1

TERMINAL VIII.2.1
TERMINAL VIII.2.2
TERMINAL VIII.2.3
Total Zone VIII.2

TERMINAL VIII.3.1
TERMINAL VIII.3.2
TERMINAL VIII.3.3
Total Zone VIII.3

TERMINAL VIII.4.1
TERMINAL VIII.4.2
TERMINAL VIII.4.3
TERMINAL VIII.4.4
TERMINAL VIII.4.5
TERMINAL VIII.4.6
Total Zone VII.4
REGION VIII
TERMINAL IX.1.1
Total Zone IX.1

TERMINAL IX.2.1
Total Zone IX.2

TERMINAL IX.3.1
Total Zone IX.3

TERMINAL IX.4.1
TERMINAL IX.4.1
TERMINAL IX.4.1
71
TERMINAL
AREA
TERMINAL IX.4.1
Total Zone IX.4

TERMINAL IX.5.1
Total Zone IX.5
REGION IX
COUNTRY
Existing Demand
Demand
Demand
Demand Demand
Lines
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
200
220
317
428
497
556
780
858
1.236
1.671
1.940
2.170
2.400
2.400
3.360
3.360
4.637
4.637
5.739
5.739
6.358
6.358
6.851
6.851
11.860
14.866
21.814
30.120
33.719
36.663
276.381 408.715 592.735 750.214 834.660 887.403
Thus, with the application of combined methodologies of forecasting, we have

calculated the number of the estimated telephone subscribers on a twenty-year (from
1996 to 2016) long-term basis.
2.3 METHODOLOGY of TRAFFIC FORECASTING

2.3.1 List of Existing Local Exchanges
We assume that Table 2.1 lists the existing 224 Terminal exchanges for the year 1996,
the 42 Group exchanges, the 9 Zone exchanges and the 1 Transit exchange. The table
2.1 shows, among others, the following:
-
The name of the existing Terminal exchange.

The Group/Zone exchange to which this Terminal exchange is connected.
The level of hierarchy.
In order to take advantage of the digital technology and to modernize the network, we
assume that in the new network Group exchanges and Zone exchanges will merge into
9 Regional ones. This will result to the simplification of the networks hierarchical
levels.
2.3.2 Historical Traffic Data

The period after the end of the war is very short, therefore, there is a difficulty in
gathering data for the traffic calculation. A special difficulty for the traffic forecasting
is the new different geographical structure of the Republic compared to the previous
one as a part of the Former State of the Republic.
The basic traffic data, which are necessary for a study of a telecommunication
network, are:
-
Future demand of subscriber lines for the study years 1996, 2001, 2005, 2011,
2016, these data result from Table 2.5.
72
The calling rates (originating and terminating average traffic per subscriber) for
each of the existing terminal exchanges for the base study year 1996 (Reliable
data do not exist and certain measurements were conducted).
Traffic data according to subscribers categories (Reliable data do not existed
and certain measurements were conducted).
Traffic dispersion (Reliable data do not exist; some dispersion values have
been given for some Zone areas).
2.3.3 Technique of Traffic Forecasting

A basic parameter in "Traffic Forecasting" is the knowledge of the subscriber
forecasting (see par. 1.2.4.1.2) in each Terminal area, with a projection of at least 20
years, time period to which this study refers.
Another important parameter is the knowledge/estimation of the originating and
terminating traffic per subscriber (Erl/sub) for each particular Terminal area.
Finally, the determination of crucial parameters as the various Coefficients of Interest,
concerning communication among subscribers of the various geographical areas, as
well as those between the various hierarchical levels of the Network, is considered
very important.
The methodology described in the previous paragraphs (see par. 1.2.4) has been
applied for the estimation of the traffic. The necessary steps for the assessment of the
various types of traffic, in the networks structure assumed in the modernised network
are the following:
-
Estimation of originating and terminating traffic per subscriber.

Forecasting of subscriber traffic per terminal exchange.
Estimation of traffic distribution.
Forecasting of internal and local traffic.
Forecasting of long-distance traffic.
Forecasting of international traffic.
The data taken into account (the completeness and reliability of which have been
discussed in the previous paragraphs) are the following:
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
Economic development of the Former State of the Republic per group

exchange area basis (Table 2.4).
Subscriber demand forecasting (Table 2.5).
Traffic distribution that resulted from measurements conducted in the exchanges
of the areas of Region I, Region II, Region III, Region IV and Region V and
were provided by the PTT of the Republic (see Table 2.8).
Relative to International Traffic concerning the areas of Region I, Region II and
Region III, (see Table 2.18),
Measured Traffic in exchanges of the area of Region I.
73
2.3.3.1 Originating/terminating Traffic per Subscriber

The traffic per subscriber (calling rate) in the busy hour varies from system to system,
depending mainly on the proportion of business/administrative lines relative to the
residential ones.
The results of the measurements in existing exchanges as well as some historical data
from other countries have been considered for the calculation of the originating and
terminating traffic per subscriber. The above traffic data depend on various factors
(exchange capacity, categories of subscribers, etc.). Finally, the dilution effect (see
par. 1.2.4) was taken into consideration.
Originating and terminating traffic per subscriber are shown in Table 2.6 for each
Terminal exchange area and for the years 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016.
Table 2.6
Originating and terminating traffic per subscriber
1 9 9 6
TERMINAL
AREA
REGION I
2 0 0 1
ao (Erl/sb)
At(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
(b)
(c)
(d)
2 0 0 6
at(Erl/sb) ao (Erl/sb)
(e)
(f)
2 0 1 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
(g)
(h)
2 0 1 6
at(Erl/sb) ao (Erl/sb) at(Erl/sb)

(i)
(j)
(k)
ZONE I.1
TERMINAL I.1.2
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.023
0.023
0.023
0.023
0.022
0.022
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.1.3
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.1.4
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.1.5
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.1.6
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.1.7
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.1.8
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.1.9
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.1.10
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.1.11
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.1.12
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.1.13
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.1.14
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.1.15
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.1.16
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.1.17
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.1.18
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.1.19
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.1.20
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.1.21
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.1.22
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.1.23
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.025
0.023
0.025
0.023
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
ZONE I.2
TERMINAL I.2.1
74
1 9 9 6
TERMINAL
AREA
TERMINAL I.2.2
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 1
At(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 6
2 0 1 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 1 6
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.2.3
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.2.4
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.2.5
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.3.1
0.035
0.032
0.035
0.032
0.032
0.029
0.028
0.024
0.028
0.024
TERMINAL I.3.2
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.3.3
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.3.4
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.4.1
0.025
0.023
0.025
0.023
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
TERMINAL I.4.2
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.4.3
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.4.4
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.4.5
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.4.6
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.4.7
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.4.8
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.4.9
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.4.10
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.4.11
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.4.12
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.5.1
0.025
0.023
0.025
0.023
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
TERMINAL I.5.2
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.5.3
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.5.4
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.5.5
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.5.6
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.5.7
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.5.8
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.5.9
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.5.10
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.5.11
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.5.12
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.5.13
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.5.14
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.5.15
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.5.16
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.5.17
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.6.1
0.025
0.023
0.025
0.023
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
TERMINAL I.6.2
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.6.3
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.6.4
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.6.5
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
ZONE I.3
ZONE I.4
ZONE I.5
ZONE I.6
75
1 9 9 6
TERMINAL
AREA
NEW TERM. I.6.6
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 1
At(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 6
2 0 1 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 1 6
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.6.7
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.6.8
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.6.9
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.6.10
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.7.1
0.025
0.023
0.025
0.023
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
TERMINAL I.7.2
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.7.3
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.7.4
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.7.5
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.7.6
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.7.7
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.8.1
0.025
0.023
0.025
0.023
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
TERMINAL I.8.2
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.8.3
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.8.4
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.8.5
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.8.6
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.9.1
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.9.2
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.9.3
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.9.4
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.10.1
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.10.2
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.10.3
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.10.4
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.10.5
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.10.6
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.10.7
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL I.11.1
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.11.2
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.11.3
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.11.4
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.11.5
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.11.6
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.12.1
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.12.2
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.12.3
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.12.4
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. I.12.5
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
ZONE I.7
ZONE I.8
ZONE I.9
ZONE I.10
ZONE I.11
ZONE I.12
76
1 9 9 6
TERMINAL
AREA
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 1
At(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 6
2 0 1 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 1 6
REGION II
ZONE II.1
TERMINAL II.1.1
0.028
0.023
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.021
0.021
0.02
TERMINAL II.1.2
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
TERMINAL II.1.3
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
TERMINAL II.1.4
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
TERMINAL II.1.5
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
TERMINAL II.1.6
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
TERMINAL II.1.7
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
TERMINAL II.1.8
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
TERMINAL II.1.9
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
TERMINAL II.1.10
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
TERMINAL II.1.11
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
TERMINAL II.1.12
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
TERMINAL II.1.13
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
TERMINAL II.1.14
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
TERMINAL II.1.15
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
TERMINAL II.1.16
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
TERMINAL II.1.17
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
NEW TERM. II.1.18
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
NEW TERM. II.1.19
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
NEW TERM. II.1.20
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
NEW TERM. II.1.21
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
NEW TERM. II.1.22
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
NEW TERM. II.1.23
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
NEW TERM. II.1.24
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
NEW TERM. II.1.25
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
TERMINAL II.2.1
0.028
0.023
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.021
0.021
0.02
TERMINAL II.2.2
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
TERMINAL II.2.3
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
TERMINAL II.2.4
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
TERMINAL II.2.5
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
TERMINAL II.2.6
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
TERMINAL II.2.7
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
NEW TERM. II.2.8
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
NEW TERM. II.2.9
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
NEW TERM. II.2.10
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
NEW TERM. II.2.11
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
NEW TERM. II.2.12
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
NEW TERM. II.2.13
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
TERMINAL II.3.1
0.028
0.023
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.021
0.021
0.02
TERMINAL II.3.2
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
TERMINAL II.3.3
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
TERMINAL II.3.4
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
ZONE II.2
ZONE II.3
77
1 9 9 6
TERMINAL
AREA
TERMINAL II.3.5
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 1
At(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 6
2 0 1 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 1 6
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
NEW TERM. II.3.6
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
NEW TERM. II.3.7
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
NEW TERM. II.3.7
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
NEW TERM. II.3.8
0.022
0.02
0.021
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.019
0.018
0.018
0.017
TERMINAL III.1.1
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
TERMINAL III.1.2
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
TERMINAL III.1.3
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
TERMINAL III.1.4
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
TERMINAL III.1.5
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
TERMINAL III.1.6
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
TERMINAL III.1.7
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
TERMINAL III.1.8
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
TERMINAL III.1.9
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
TERMINAL III.1.10
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
TERMINAL III.1.11
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
TERMINAL III.1.12
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
NEW TERM.
III.1.13
NEW TERM. III.1.14
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
NEW TERM. III.1.15
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
NEW TERM. III.1.16
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
NEW TERM. III.1.17
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
NEW TERM. III.1.18
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
NEW TERM. III.1.19
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
NEW TERM. III.1.20
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
NEW TERM. III.1.21
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
TERMINAL III.2.1
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
TERMINAL III.2.2
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
TERMINAL III.2.3
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
TERMINAL III.2.4
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
NEW TERM. III.2.5
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
NEW TERM. III.2.6
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
NEW TERM. III.2.7
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
NEW TERM. III.2.8
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
TERMINAL III.3.1
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
NEW TERM. III.3.2
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
NEW TERM. III.3.3
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
NEW TERM. III.3.4
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
NEW TERM. III.3.5
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
NEW TERM. III.3.6
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
NEW TERM. III.3.7
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
REGION III
ZONE III.1
ZONE III.2
ZONE III.3
ZONE III.4
78
1 9 9 6
TERMINAL
AREA
TERMINAL III.4.1
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 1
At(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 6
2 0 1 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 1 6
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
TERMINAL III.4.2
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
TERMINAL III.4.3
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
TERMINAL III.4.4
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
TERMINAL III.4.5
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
TERMINAL III.4.6
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
NEW TERM. III.4.7
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.019
0.016
0.019
0.016
TERMINAL IV.1.1
0.03
0.025
0.027
0.022
0.025
0.021
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
TERMINAL IV.1.2
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.021
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL IV.1.3
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.021
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL IV.1.4
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.021
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL IV.1.5
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.021
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL IV.1.6
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.021
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL IV.1.7
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.021
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL IV.1.8
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.021
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL IV.1.9
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.021
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL IV.1.10
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.021
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. IV.1.11
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.021
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. IV.1.12
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.021
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. IV.1.13
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.021
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL IV.2.1
0.03
0.025
0.027
0.022
0.025
0.021
0.022
0.02
0.022
0.02
TERMINAL IV.2.2
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.021
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL IV.2.3
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.021
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL IV.2.4
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.021
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL IV.2.5
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.021
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL V.1.1
0.03
0.025
0.028
0.022
0.025
0.021
0.023
0.02
0.023
0.02
TERMINAL V.1.2
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
TERMINAL V.1.3
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
TERMINAL V.1.4
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
TERMINAL V.1.5
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
TERMINAL V.1.6
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
TERMINAL V.1.7
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
TERMINAL V.1.8
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
TERMINAL V.1.9
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
TERMINAL V.1.10
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
TERMINAL V.1.11
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
TERMINAL V.1.12
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
TERMINAL V.1.13
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
TERMINAL V.1.14
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
TERMINAL V.1.15
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
TERMINAL V.1.16
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
REGION IV
ZONE IV.1
ZONE IV.2
REGION V
ZONE V.1
79
1 9 9 6
TERMINAL
AREA
TERMINAL V.1.17
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 1
At(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 6
2 0 1 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 1 6
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
TERMINAL V.2.1
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
TERMINAL V.2.2
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
NEW TERM. V.2.3
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
TERMINAL V.3.1
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
TERMINAL V.3.2
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.017
0.02
0.017
TERMINAL VI.1.1
0.03
0.025
0.03
0.025
0.025
0.021
0.023
0.021
0.023
0.021
TERMINAL VI.1.2
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL VI.1.3
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL VI.1.4
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL VI.1.5
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL VI.1.6
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL VI.1.7
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL VI.1.8
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL VI.1.9
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL VI.1.10
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL VI.1.11
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL VI.1.12
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL VI.1.13
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL VI.1.14
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL VI.1.15
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL VI.2.1
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL VI.2.2
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL VI.2.3
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL VI.2.4
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL VI.2.5
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.03
0.025
0.03
0.025
0.025
0.021
0.023
0.021
0.023
0.021
0.03
0.025
0.03
0.025
0.025
0.021
0.023
0.021
0.023
0.021
TERMINAL VII.1.1
0.03
0.025
0.03
0.025
0.028
0.023
0.025
0.022
0.025
0.022
TERMINAL VII.1.2
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL VII.1.3
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL VII.1.4
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL VII.1.5
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL VII.1.6
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
NEW TERM. VII.1.7
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL V.1.18
ZONE V.2
ZONE V.3
REGION VI
ZONE VI.1
ZONE VI.2
ZONE VI.3
TERMINAL VI.3.1
ZONE VI.4
TERMINAL VI.4.1
REGION VII
ZONE VII.1
ZONE VII.2
80
1 9 9 6
TERMINAL
AREA
TERMINAL VII.2.1
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 1
At(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 6
2 0 1 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 1 6
0.03
0.025
0.03
0.025
0.028
0.023
0.025
0.022
0.025
0.022
TERMINAL VII.2.2
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL VII.2.3
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL VII.2.4
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
TERMINAL VII.2.5
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.019
0.02
0.018
0.02
0.018
0.03
0.025
0.03
0.025
0.028
0.023
0.025
0.022
0.025
0.022
TERMINAL VIII.1.1
0.03
0.025
0.03
0.025
0.028
0.022
0.024
0.02
0.024
0.02
TERMINAL VIII.1.2
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.023
0.019
0.022
0.018
0.022
0.018
TERMINAL VIII.1.3
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.023
0.019
0.022
0.018
0.022
0.018
TERMINAL VIII.1.4
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.023
0.019
0.022
0.018
0.022
0.018
TERMINAL VIII.1.5
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.023
0.019
0.022
0.018
0.022
0.018
TERMINAL VIII.2.1
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.023
0.019
0.022
0.018
0.022
0.018
TERMINAL VIII.2.2
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.023
0.019
0.022
0.018
0.022
0.018
TERMINAL VIII.2.3
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.023
0.019
0.022
0.018
0.022
0.018
TERMINAL VIII.3.1
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.023
0.019
0.022
0.018
0.022
0.018
TERMINAL VIII.3.2
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.023
0.019
0.022
0.018
0.022
0.018
TERMINAL VIII.3.3
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.023
0.019
0.022
0.018
0.022
0.018
TERMINAL VIII.4.1
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.023
0.019
0.022
0.018
0.022
0.018
TERMINAL VIII.4.2
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.023
0.019
0.022
0.018
0.022
0.018
TERMINAL VIII.4.3
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.023
0.019
0.022
0.018
0.022
0.018
TERMINAL VIII.4.4
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.023
0.019
0.022
0.018
0.022
0.018
TERMINAL VIII.4.5
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.023
0.019
0.022
0.018
0.022
0.018
TERMINAL VIII.4.6
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.023
0.019
0.022
0.018
0.022
0.018
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.023
0.019
0.022
0.018
0.022
0.018
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.018
0.022
0.018
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.018
0.022
0.018
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.018
0.022
0.018
TERMINAL IX.4.1
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.018
0.022
0.018
TERMINAL IX.4.1
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.018
0.022
0.018
TERMINAL IX.4.1
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.018
0.022
0.018
ZONE VII.3
TERMINAL VII.3.1
ZONE VII.4
TERMINAL VII.4.1
ZONE VII.5
TERMINAL VII.5.1
REGION VIII
ZONE VIII.1
ZONE VIII.2
ZONE VIII.3
ZONE VIII.4
ZONE VIII.5
TERMINAL VIII.5.1
REGION IX
ZONE IX.1
TERMINAL IX.1.1
ZONE IX.2
TERMINAL IX.2.1
ZONE IX.3
TERMINAL IX.3.1
ZONE IX.4
81
1 9 9 6
TERMINAL
AREA
TERMINAL IX.4.1
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 1
At(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 6
2 0 1 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 1 6
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.018
0.022
0.018
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.025
0.02
0.022
0.018
0.022
0.018
ZONE IX.5
TERMINAL IX.5.1
2.3.3.2 Forecasting of Subscriber Traffic per Terminal Exchange

The subscriber traffic (originating and terminating) per Terminal exchange can be
obtained (see par. 1.2.4.1.3) by multiplying the calling rate (given in Table 2.6) by the
corresponding number forecasted subscribers (given in Table 2.5). The results for the
originating and terminating traffic per Terminal exchange are depicted in Table 2.7
for the period 1996 to 2016.
Table 2.7
Originating and terminating traffic
1 9 9 6
TERMINAL
AREA
REGION I
2 0 0 1
ao (Erl/sb)
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
(b)
(c)
(d)
2 0 0 6
(e)
(f)
2 0 1 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
(g)
(h)
2 0 1 6

(i)
(j)
(k)
ZONE I.1
TERMINAL I.1.2
1959.52
1959.52
2680.62
2680.62
2418.90
2418.90
2825.82
2825.82 2801.76 2801.76
28.60
26.00
39.12
35.57
41.86
37.68
48.91
44.02
50.69
45.62
TERMINAL I.1.3
14.30
13.00
19.56
17.78
20.93
18.84
24.45
22.01
25.35
22.81
TERMINAL I.1.4
57.20
52.00
78.25
71.14
83.73
75.35
97.81
88.03
101.39
91.25
TERMINAL I.1.5
27.46
24.96
37.56
34.15
40.19
36.17
46.95
42.25
48.67
43.80
TERMINAL I.1.6
21.96
19.97
30.05
27.32
32.15
28.94
37.56
33.80
38.93
35.04
TERMINAL I.1.7
6.86
6.24
9.39
8.54
10.05
9.04
11.74
10.56
12.17
10.95
TERMINAL I.1.8
10.98
9.98
15.02
13.66
16.08
14.47
18.78
16.90
19.47
17.52
TERMINAL I.1.9
5.15
4.68
7.04
6.40
7.54
6.78
8.80
7.92
9.12
8.21
TERMINAL I.1.10
10.98
9.98
15.02
13.66
16.08
14.47
18.78
16.90
19.47
17.52
TERMINAL I.1.11
10.98
9.98
15.02
13.66
16.08
14.47
18.78
16.90
19.47
17.52
TERMINAL I.1.12
21.96
19.97
30.05
27.32
32.15
28.94
37.56
33.80
38.93
35.04
TERMINAL I.1.13
6.86
6.24
9.39
8.54
10.05
9.04
11.74
10.56
12.17
10.95
TERMINAL I.1.14
5.49
4.99
7.51
6.83
8.04
7.23
9.39
8.45
9.73
8.76
TERMINAL I.1.15
10.30
9.36
14.08
12.80
15.07
13.56
17.61
15.85
18.25
16.42
TERMINAL I.1.16
6.12
5.56
8.37
7.61
8.96
8.06
10.47
9.42
10.85
9.76
TERMINAL I.1.17
7.32
6.66
10.02
9.11
10.72
9.65
12.52
11.27
12.98
11.68
TERMINAL I.1.18
7.32
6.66
10.02
9.11
10.72
9.65
12.52
11.27
12.98
11.68
NEW TERM. I.1.19
2.86
2.60
3.91
3.56
4.19
3.77
4.89
4.40
5.07
4.56
NEW TERM. I.1.20
8.58
7.80
11.74
10.67
12.56
11.30
14.67
13.20
15.21
13.69
NEW TERM. I.1.21
8.58
7.80
11.74
10.67
12.56
11.30
14.67
13.20
15.21
13.69
NEW TERM. I.1.22
2.86
2.60
3.91
3.56
4.19
3.77
4.89
4.40
5.07
4.56
82
1 9 9 6
TERMINAL
AREA
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 6
2 0 1 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 1 6
8.58
7.80
11.74
10.67
12.56
11.30
14.67
2250.82
2224.35
3079.13
3042.95
2845.36
2802.68
3323.98
TERMINAL I.2.1
76.00
69.92
104.50
96.14
105.28
95.71
115.01
104.55
120.79
109.81
TERMINAL I.2.2
10.03
9.12
13.79
12.54
14.36
12.92
15.68
14.11
16.47
14.82
NEW TERM. I.2.3
12.54
11.40
17.24
15.68
17.94
16.15
19.60
17.64
20.59
18.53
NEW TERM. I.2.4
29.26
26.60
40.23
36.58
41.87
37.68
45.74
41.17
48.04
43.24
NEW TERM. I.2.5
4.18
3.80
5.75
5.23
5.98
5.38
6.53
5.88
6.86
6.18
132.01
120.84
181.51
166.17
185.43
167.84
202.56
183.35
212.75
192.58
TERMINAL I.3.1
133.00
121.60
189.90
173.62
223.62
202.66
246.40
211.20
260.97
223.69
TERMINAL I.3.2
40.13
36.48
57.29
52.09
67.09
60.38
84.48
76.03
89.47
80.53
NEW TERM. I.3.3
10.03
9.12
14.32
13.02
16.77
15.09
21.12
19.01
22.37
20.13
NEW TERM. I.3.4
16.72
15.20
23.87
21.70
27.95
25.16
35.20
31.68
37.28
33.55
199.88
182.40
285.38
260.43
335.43
303.29
387.20
337.92
410.09
357.90
TERMINAL I.4.1
231.54
213.02
318.37
292.90
320.73
291.57
360.75
327.95
378.10
343.73
TERMINAL I.4.2
19.15
17.41
26.33
23.94
27.40
24.66
30.82
27.74
32.30
29.07
TERMINAL I.4.3
4.79
4.35
6.58
5.98
6.85
6.17
7.71
6.93
8.08
7.27
NEW TERM. I.1.23

ZONE I.1
13.20
15.21
13.69
3274.13 3318.15 3266.48
ZONE I.2
ZONE I.2
ZONE I.3
ZONE I.3
ZONE I.4
TERMINAL I.4.4
9.57
8.70
13.16
11.97
13.70
12.33
15.41
13.87
16.15
14.54
TERMINAL I.4.5
38.30
34.82
52.66
47.87
54.80
49.32
61.64
55.48
64.61
58.15
TERMINAL I.4.6
6.73
6.12
9.26
8.42
9.63
8.67
10.84
9.75
11.36
10.22
TERMINAL I.4.7
28.72
26.11
39.49
35.90
41.10
36.99
46.23
41.61
48.45
43.61
TERMINAL I.4.8
14.36
13.06
19.75
17.95
20.55
18.50
23.12
20.80
24.23
21.80
TERMINAL I.4.9
14.36
13.06
19.75
17.95
20.55
18.50
23.12
20.80
24.23
21.80
NEW TERM. I.4.10
11.22
10.20
15.43
14.03
16.06
14.45
18.06
16.25
18.93
17.03
NEW TERM. I.4.11
14.96
13.60
20.57
18.70
21.41
19.27
24.08
21.67
25.24
22.71
NEW TERM. I.4.12
5.61
5.10
7.71
7.01
8.03
7.23
9.03
8.13
9.46
8.52
399.31
365.55
549.06
502.62
560.81
507.66
630.81
570.98
661.14
598.45
TERMINAL I.5.1
137.70
126.68
190.03
174.82
196.82
178.93
221.38
201.25
230.44
209.49
TERMINAL I.5.2
7.06
6.42
9.75
8.86
10.43
9.38
11.73
10.56
12.21
10.99
TERMINAL I.5.3
7.06
6.42
9.75
8.86
10.43
9.38
11.73
10.56
12.21
10.99
TERMINAL I.5.4
7.06
6.42
9.75
8.86
10.43
9.38
11.73
10.56
12.21
10.99
TERMINAL I.5.5
13.86
12.60
19.13
17.39
20.47
18.42
23.02
20.72
23.96
21.57
TERMINAL I.5.6
22.18
20.16
30.60
27.82
32.75
29.47
36.83
33.15
38.34
34.50
ZONE I.4
ZONE I.5
TERMINAL I.5.7
7.06
6.42
9.75
8.86
10.43
9.38
11.73
10.56
12.21
10.99
TERMINAL I.5.8
29.70
27.00
40.99
37.26
43.86
39.47
49.33
44.39
51.35
46.21
TERMINAL I.5.9
11.88
10.80
16.39
14.90
17.54
15.79
19.73
17.76
20.54
18.48
TERMINAL I.5.10
9.90
9.00
13.66
12.42
14.62
13.16
16.44
14.80
17.12
15.40
TERMINAL I.5.11
7.06
6.42
9.75
8.86
10.43
9.38
11.73
10.56
12.21
10.99
TERMINAL I.5.12
1.98
1.80
2.73
2.48
2.92
2.63
3.29
2.96
3.42
3.08
TERMINAL I.5.13
7.06
6.42
9.75
8.86
10.43
9.38
11.73
10.56
12.21
10.99
TERMINAL I.5.14
7.06
6.42
9.75
8.86
10.43
9.38
11.73
10.56
12.21
10.99
TERMINAL I.5.15
1.98
1.80
2.73
2.48
2.92
2.63
3.29
2.96
3.42
3.08
NEW TERM. I.5.16
7.92
7.20
10.93
9.94
11.69
10.53
13.15
11.84
13.69
12.32
83
1 9 9 6
TERMINAL
AREA
NEW TERM. I.5.17
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 6
2 0 1 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 1 6
4.95
4.50
6.83
6.21
7.31
6.58
8.22
7.40
8.56
7.70
291.47
266.48
402.27
367.74
423.91
383.27
476.79
431.15
496.31
448.76
TERMINAL I.6.1
225.00
207.00
323.44
297.56
350.66
318.78
433.24
393.86
459.62
417.84
TERMINAL I.6.2
13.99
12.72
20.11
18.29
22.53
20.27
27.83
25.05
29.53
26.57
TERMINAL I.6.3
15.84
14.40
22.77
20.70
25.50
22.95
31.51
28.36
33.43
30.08
TERMINAL I.6.4
5.02
4.56
7.21
6.56
8.08
7.27
9.98
8.98
10.59
9.53
NEW TERM. I.6.5
11.55
10.50
16.60
15.09
18.60
16.74
22.98
20.68
24.37
21.94
NEW TERM. I.6.6
11.55
10.50
16.60
15.09
18.60
16.74
22.98
20.68
24.37
21.94
NEW TERM. I.6.7
11.55
10.50
16.60
15.09
18.60
16.74
22.98
20.68
24.37
21.94
NEW TERM. I.6.8
12.67
11.52
18.22
16.56
20.40
18.36
25.21
22.69
26.74
24.07
NEW TERM. I.6.9
12.67
11.52
18.22
16.56
20.40
18.36
25.21
22.69
26.74
24.07
NEW TERM. I.6.10
6.60
6.00
9.49
8.63
10.63
9.56
13.13
11.82
13.93
12.54
326.44
299.22
469.26
430.13
514.00
465.77
635.05
575.49
673.69
610.52
TERMINAL I.7.1
142.50
131.10
195.94
180.26
197.39
179.45
215.64
196.03
226.20
205.64
TERMINAL I.7.2
16.05
14.59
22.07
20.06
22.97
20.67
25.09
22.58
26.32
23.69
TERMINAL I.7.3
8.36
7.60
11.50
10.45
11.96
10.77
13.07
11.76
13.71
12.34
TERMINAL I.7.4
10.03
9.12
13.79
12.54
14.36
12.92
15.68
14.11
16.45
14.81
TERMINAL I.7.5
1.67
1.52
2.30
2.09
2.39
2.15
2.61
2.35
2.74
2.47
NEW TERM. I.7.6
10.03
9.12
13.79
12.54
14.36
12.92
15.68
14.11
16.45
14.81
NEW TERM. I.7.7
8.36
7.60
11.50
10.45
11.96
10.77
13.07
11.76
13.71
12.34
197.00
180.65
270.89
248.39
275.39
249.65
300.84
272.70
315.58
286.10
TERMINAL I.8.1
64.00
58.88
94.40
86.85
106.04
96.40
127.47
115.88
138.50
125.91
TERMINAL I.8.2
20.28
18.43
29.91
27.19
34.70
31.23
41.72
37.54
45.33
40.79
TERMINAL I.8.3
20.28
18.43
29.91
27.19
34.70
31.23
41.72
37.54
45.33
40.79
TERMINAL I.8.4
20.28
18.43
29.91
27.19
34.70
31.23
41.72
37.54
45.33
40.79
TERMINAL I.8.5
8.45
7.68
12.46
11.33
14.46
13.01
17.38
15.64
18.89
17.00
TERMINAL I.8.6
6.34
5.76
9.35
8.50
10.85
9.76
13.04
11.73
14.16
12.75
139.63
127.61
205.94
188.25
235.45
212.86
283.05
255.87
307.54
278.03
TERMINAL I.9.1
52.80
48.00
82.37
74.88
94.72
85.25
105.39
94.85
108.62
97.76
NEW TERM. I.9.2
11.00
10.00
17.16
15.60
19.73
17.76
21.96
19.76
22.63
20.37
NEW TERM. I.9.3
11.00
10.00
17.16
15.60
19.73
17.76
21.96
19.76
22.63
20.37
NEW TERM. I.9.4
11.00
10.00
17.16
15.60
19.73
17.76
21.96
19.76
22.63
20.37
ZONE I.9
85.80
78.00
133.85
121.68
153.91
138.53
171.27
154.13
176.51
158.87
TERMINAL I.10.1
40.04
36.40
48.35
43.95
47.08
42.37
49.96
44.96
53.01
47.71
TERMINAL I.10.2
4.93
4.48
5.95
5.41
5.79
5.22
6.15
5.53
6.52
5.87
TERMINAL I.10.3
4.93
4.48
5.95
5.41
5.79
5.22
6.15
5.53
6.52
5.87
TERMINAL I.10.4
17.74
16.13
21.42
19.47
20.86
18.78
22.14
19.92
23.49
21.14
TERMINAL I.10.5
5.91
5.38
7.14
6.49
6.95
6.26
7.38
6.64
7.83
7.05
TERMINAL I.10.6
5.91
5.38
7.14
6.49
6.95
6.26
7.38
6.64
7.83
7.05
NEW TERM. I.10.7
6.16
5.60
7.44
6.76
7.24
6.52
7.69
6.92
8.15
7.34
85.62
77.85
103.39
93.98
100.66
90.63
106.85
96.14
113.35
102.03
ZONE I.5
ZONE I.6
ZONE I.6
ZONE I.7
ZONE I.7
ZONE I.8
ZONE I.8
ZONE I.9
ZONE I.10
ZONE I.10
84
1 9 9 6
TERMINAL
AREA
ZONE I.11
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 6
2 0 1 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 1 6
TERMINAL I.11.1
105.60
96.00
138.60
126.00
134.97
121.47
143.22
128.90
152.45
137.20
NEW TERM. I.11.2
7.04
6.40
9.24
8.40
9.00
8.10
9.55
8.59
10.16
9.15
NEW TERM. I.11.3
5.63
5.12
7.39
6.72
7.20
6.48
7.64
6.87
8.13
7.32
NEW TERM. I.11.4
3.52
3.20
4.62
4.20
4.50
4.05
4.77
4.30
5.08
4.57
NEW TERM. I.11.5
3.52
3.20
4.62
4.20
4.50
4.05
4.77
4.30
5.08
4.57
NEW TERM. I.11.6
3.52
3.20
4.62
4.20
4.50
4.05
4.77
4.30
5.08
4.57
128.83
117.12
169.09
153.72
164.67
148.20
174.72
157.26
185.98
167.38
NEW TERM. I.12.1
15.84
14.40
23.68
21.53
26.05
23.44
31.02
27.92
35.72
32.15
NEW TERM. I.12.2
15.84
14.40
23.68
21.53
26.05
23.44
31.02
27.92
35.72
32.15
NEW TERM. I.12.3
6.60
6.00
9.87
8.97
10.85
9.77
12.93
11.63
14.88
13.40
NEW TERM. I.12.4
11.88
10.80
17.76
16.15
19.54
17.58
23.27
20.94
26.79
24.11
NEW TERM. I.12.5
6.60
6.00
9.87
8.97
10.85
9.77
12.93
11.63
14.88
13.40
56.76
51.60
84.86
77.15
93.34
84.00
111.17
100.04
127.99
115.21
ZONE I.11
ZONE I.12
ZONE I.12
REGION I
REGION II
4293.57 4091.67
5934.63 5653.21 5888.36 5554.38 6804.29 6409.16 6999.08 6582.31
ZONE II.1
TERMINAL II.1.1
506.84
416.34
696.46
557.17
707.88
643.53
788.61
752.77
793.94
756.13
TERMINAL II.1.2
28.72
26.11
42.20
36.17
44.09
41.77
49.12
46.54
49.08
46.36
TERMINAL II.1.3
28.72
26.11
42.20
36.17
44.09
41.77
49.12
46.54
49.08
46.36
TERMINAL II.1.4
14.36
13.06
21.10
18.08
22.05
20.89
24.56
23.27
24.54
23.18
TERMINAL II.1.5
14.36
13.06
21.10
18.08
22.05
20.89
24.56
23.27
24.54
23.18
TERMINAL II.1.6
17.95
16.32
26.37
22.60
27.56
26.11
30.70
29.09
30.68
28.97
TERMINAL II.1.7
8.00
7.28
11.76
10.08
12.29
11.64
13.69
12.97
13.68
12.92
TERMINAL II.1.8
8.00
7.28
11.76
10.08
12.29
11.64
13.69
12.97
13.68
12.92
TERMINAL II.1.9
8.00
7.28
11.76
10.08
12.29
11.64
13.69
12.97
13.68
12.92
TERMINAL II.1.10
29.92
27.20
43.95
37.67
45.93
43.51
51.17
48.48
51.13
48.29
TERMINAL II.1.11
6.73
6.12
9.89
8.48
10.33
9.79
11.51
10.91
11.50
10.86
TERMINAL II.1.12
6.73
6.12
9.89
8.48
10.33
9.79
11.51
10.91
11.50
10.86
TERMINAL II.1.13
6.73
6.12
9.89
8.48
10.33
9.79
11.51
10.91
11.50
10.86
TERMINAL II.1.14
6.73
6.12
9.89
8.48
10.33
9.79
11.51
10.91
11.50
10.86
TERMINAL II.1.15
8.00
7.28
11.76
10.08
12.29
11.64
13.69
12.97
13.68
12.92
TERMINAL II.1.16
8.00
7.28
11.76
10.08
12.29
11.64
13.69
12.97
13.68
12.92
TERMINAL II.1.17
4.49
4.08
6.59
5.65
6.89
6.53
7.68
7.27
7.67
7.24
NEW TERM. II.1.18
3.74
3.40
5.49
4.71
5.74
5.44
6.40
6.06
6.39
6.04
NEW TERM. II.1.19
3.74
3.40
5.49
4.71
5.74
5.44
6.40
6.06
6.39
6.04
NEW TERM. II.1.20
3.74
3.40
5.49
4.71
5.74
5.44
6.40
6.06
6.39
6.04
NEW TERM. II.1.21
59.84
54.40
87.91
75.35
91.86
87.03
102.34
96.95
102.26
96.58
NEW TERM. II.1.22
6.73
6.12
9.89
8.48
10.33
9.79
11.51
10.91
11.50
10.86
NEW TERM. II.1.23
3.74
3.40
5.49
4.71
5.74
5.44
6.40
6.06
6.39
6.04
NEW TERM. II.1.24
3.74
3.40
5.49
4.71
5.74
5.44
6.40
6.06
6.39
6.04
NEW TERM. II.1.25
3.74
3.40
5.49
4.71
5.74
5.44
6.40
6.06
6.39
6.04
801.29
684.08
1129.07
928.00
1159.94
1071.82
1292.26
1229.94
1297.16
1231.43
153.62
126.19
203.68
162.95
207.02
188.20
230.63
220.15
233.00
221.90
ZONE II.1
ZONE II.2
TERMINAL II.2.1
85
1 9 9 6
TERMINAL
AREA
TERMINAL II.2.2
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 6
2 0 1 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 1 6
2.38
2.16
3.37
2.89
3.52
3.33
3.92
3.71
3.93
3.71
TERMINAL II.2.3
9.50
8.64
13.47
11.55
14.08
13.34
15.68
14.86
15.73
14.85
TERMINAL II.2.4
7.13
6.48
10.10
8.66
10.56
10.00
11.76
11.14
11.79
11.14
TERMINAL II.2.5
7.13
6.48
10.10
8.66
10.56
10.00
11.76
11.14
11.79
11.14
TERMINAL II.2.6
10.69
9.72
15.16
12.99
15.84
15.00
17.64
16.72
17.69
16.71
TERMINAL II.2.7
23.76
21.60
33.68
28.87
35.20
33.34
39.21
37.15
39.31
37.13
NEW TERM. II.2.8
7.13
6.48
10.10
8.66
10.56
10.00
11.76
11.14
11.79
11.14
NEW TERM. II.2.9
7.13
6.48
10.10
8.66
10.56
10.00
11.76
11.14
11.79
11.14
NEW TERM. II.2.10
6.34
5.76
8.98
7.70
9.39
8.89
10.46
9.91
10.48
9.90
NEW TERM. II.2.11
2.38
2.16
3.37
2.89
3.52
3.33
3.92
3.71
3.93
3.71
NEW TERM. II.2.12
7.13
6.48
10.10
8.66
10.56
10.00
11.76
11.14
11.79
11.14
NEW TERM. II.2.13
3.96
3.60
5.61
4.81
5.87
5.56
6.53
6.19
6.55
6.19
248.28
212.23
337.82
277.95
347.24
320.99
386.79
368.10
389.57
369.8
TERMINAL II.3.1
136.42
112.06
167.48
133.98
175.09
159.17
200.68
191.56
203.15
193.48
TERMINAL II.3.2
25.34
23.04
33.26
28.51
35.75
33.87
40.98
38.82
41.17
38.89
ZONE II.2
ZONE II.3
TERMINAL II.3.3
9.90
9.00
12.99
11.14
13.97
13.23
16.01
15.17
16.08
15.19
TERMINAL II.3.4
14.85
13.50
19.49
16.71
20.95
19.85
24.01
22.75
24.13
22.79
TERMINAL II.3.5
5.94
5.40
7.80
6.68
8.38
7.94
9.60
9.10
9.65
9.11
NEW TERM. II.3.6
3.30
3.00
4.33
3.71
4.66
4.41
5.34
5.06
5.36
5.06
NEW TERM. II.3.7
3.30
3.00
4.33
3.71
4.66
4.41
5.34
5.06
5.36
5.06
NEW TERM. II.3.7
3.30
3.00
4.33
3.71
4.66
4.41
5.34
5.06
5.36
5.06
NEW TERM. II.3.8

ZONE II.3
REGION II
REGION III
3.30
3.00
4.33
3.71
4.66
4.41
5.34
5.06
5.36
5.06
205.65
175.00
258.34
211.86
272.78
251.70
312.64
297.64
315.62
299.7
1255.22 1071.31
1725.23 1417.81 1779.96 1644.51 1991.69 1895.68 2002.35 1900.93
ZONE III.1
TERMINAL III.1.1
299.04
254.18
394.73
335.52
455.92
387.53
482.52
406.33
514.44
433.21
TERMINAL III.1.2
13.72
11.66
18.11
15.39
20.92
17.78
22.14
18.64
23.60
19.88
TERMINAL III.1.3
6.72
5.71
8.87
7.54
10.25
8.71
10.84
9.13
11.56
9.74
TERMINAL III.1.4
21.50
18.28
28.39
24.13
32.78
27.87
34.70
29.22
36.99
31.15
TERMINAL III.1.5
32.26
27.42
42.58
36.19
49.18
41.80
52.05
43.83
55.49
46.73
TERMINAL III.1.6
2.80
2.38
3.70
3.14
4.27
3.63
4.52
3.80
4.82
4.06
TERMINAL III.1.7
10.75
9.14
14.19
12.06
16.39
13.93
17.35
14.61
18.50
15.58
TERMINAL III.1.8
16.13
13.71
21.29
18.10
24.59
20.90
26.02
21.91
27.74
23.36
TERMINAL III.1.9
16.13
13.71
21.29
18.10
24.59
20.90
26.02
21.91
27.74
23.36
TERMINAL III.1.10
16.13
13.71
21.29
18.10
24.59
20.90
26.02
21.91
27.74
23.36
TERMINAL III.1.11
16.13
13.71
21.29
18.10
24.59
20.90
26.02
21.91
27.74
23.36
TERMINAL III.1.12
16.13
13.71
21.29
18.10
24.59
20.90
26.02
21.91
27.74
23.36
NEW TERM. III.1.13
26.88
22.85
35.48
30.16
40.98
34.83
43.37
36.52
46.24
38.94
NEW TERM. III.1.14
16.13
13.71
21.29
18.10
24.59
20.90
26.02
21.91
27.74
23.36
NEW TERM. III.1.15
13.44
11.42
17.74
15.08
20.49
17.42
21.69
18.26
23.12
19.47
NEW TERM. III.1.16
14.00
11.90
18.48
15.71
21.34
18.14
22.59
19.02
24.08
20.28
NEW TERM. III.1.17
3.36
2.86
4.44
3.77
5.12
4.35
5.42
4.57
5.78
4.87
NEW TERM. III.1.18
10.75
9.14
14.19
12.06
16.39
13.93
17.35
14.61
18.50
15.58
NEW TERM. III.1.19
10.75
9.14
14.19
12.06
16.39
13.93
17.35
14.61
18.50
15.58
86
1 9 9 6
TERMINAL
AREA
NEW TERM. III.1.20
NEW TERM. III.1.21
ao (Erl/sb)
5.04
2 0 0 1
at(Erl/sb)
4.28
ao (Erl/sb)
6.65
2 0 0 6
5.65
7.68
2 0 1 1
at(Erl/sb)
6.53
ao (Erl/sb)
8.13
2 0 1 6
6.85
8.67
21.91
7.30
16.13
13.71
21.29
18.10
24.59
20.90
26.02
27.74
23.36
583.92
496.33
770.77
655.16
890.23
756.68
942.16
793.37 1004.47
845.89
TERMINAL III.2.1
140.00
119.00
204.96
174.22
270.55
229.97
311.70
262.48
336.85
283.66
TERMINAL III.2.2
10.75
9.14
15.74
13.38
20.78
17.66
23.94
20.16
25.87
21.79
TERMINAL III.2.3
28.00
23.80
40.99
34.84
54.11
45.99
62.34
52.50
67.37
56.73
TERMINAL III.2.4
16.13
13.71
23.61
20.07
31.17
26.49
35.91
30.24
38.81
32.68
NEW TERM. III.2.5
3.36
2.86
4.92
4.18
6.49
5.52
7.48
6.30
8.08
6.81
NEW TERM. III.2.6
5.04
4.28
7.38
6.27
9.74
8.28
11.22
9.45
12.13
10.21
NEW TERM. III.2.7
5.04
4.28
7.38
6.27
9.74
8.28
11.22
9.45
12.13
10.21
ZONE III.1
ZONE III.2
NEW TERM. III.2.8
5.38
4.57
7.87
6.69
10.39
8.83
11.97
10.08
12.94
10.89
213.7
181.64
312.85
265.92
412.97
351.02
475.78
400.66
514.18
432.98
140.00
119.00
193.20
164.22
223.15
189.67
245.40
206.66
261.19
219.95
NEW TERM. III.3.2
5.04
4.28
6.96
5.91
8.03
6.83
8.83
7.44
9.40
7.92
NEW TERM. III.3.3
5.04
4.28
6.96
5.91
8.03
6.83
8.83
7.44
9.40
7.92
NEW TERM. III.3.4
5.04
4.28
6.96
5.91
8.03
6.83
8.83
7.44
9.40
7.92
NEW TERM. III.3.5
1.12
0.95
1.55
1.31
1.79
1.52
1.96
1.65
2.09
1.76
NEW TERM. III.3.6
10.75
9.14
14.84
12.61
17.14
14.57
18.85
15.87
20.06
16.89
NEW TERM. III.3.7
3.36
2.86
4.64
3.94
5.36
4.55
5.89
4.96
6.27
5.28
170.35
144.79
235.11
199.81
271.53
230.80
298.59
251.46
317.81
267.64
TERMINAL III.4.1
120.40
102.34
164.51
139.84
195.44
166.13
212.81
179.21
224.97
189.45
TERMINAL III.4.2
11.20
9.52
15.30
13.01
18.18
15.45
19.80
16.67
20.93
17.62
ZONE III.2
ZONE III.3
TERMINAL III.3.1
ZONE III.3
ZONE III.4
TERMINAL III.4.3
5.04
4.28
6.89
5.85
8.18
6.95
8.91
7.50
9.42
7.93
TERMINAL III.4.4
7.17
6.09
9.79
8.33
11.64
9.89
12.67
10.67
13.39
11.28
TERMINAL III.4.5
10.08
8.57
13.77
11.71
16.36
13.91
17.82
15.00
18.83
15.86
TERMINAL III.4.6
10.08
8.57
13.77
11.71
16.36
13.91
17.82
15.00
18.83
15.86
NEW TERM. III.4.7
2.80
2.38
3.83
3.25
4.55
3.86
4.95
4.17
5.23
4.41
166.77
141.75
227.86
193.7
270.71
230.1
294.78
248.22
311.60
262.41
1134.74
964.51
TERMINAL IV.1.1
411.26
342.72
541.88
441.53
662.30
556.33
706.82
642.56
721.44
TERMINAL IV.1.2
3.50
2.80
4.51
3.89
5.68
5.14
6.56
5.91
6.70
6.03
TERMINAL IV.1.3
8.96
7.17
11.54
9.97
14.54
13.16
16.80
15.12
17.15
15.43
TERMINAL IV.1.4
20.16
16.13
25.97
22.43
32.73
29.61
37.80
34.02
38.58
34.72
TERMINAL IV.1.5
3.50
2.80
4.51
3.89
5.68
5.14
6.56
5.91
6.70
6.03
ZONE III.4
REGION III
REGION IV
1546.59 1314.59 1845.44 1568.60 2011.31 1693.71 2148.06 1808.92
ZONE IV.1
655.85
TERMINAL IV.1.6
6.72
5.38
8.66
7.48
10.91
9.87
12.60
11.34
12.86
11.57
TERMINAL IV.1.7
15.40
12.32
19.84
17.13
25.00
22.62
28.87
25.99
29.47
26.52
TERMINAL IV.1.8
6.72
5.38
8.66
7.48
10.91
9.87
12.60
11.34
12.86
11.57
TERMINAL IV.1.9
6.30
5.04
8.12
7.01
10.23
9.25
11.81
10.63
12.06
10.85
TERMINAL IV.1.10
28.00
22.40
36.07
31.15
45.45
41.12
52.50
47.25
53.58
48.22
NEW TERM. IV.1.11
3.50
2.80
4.51
3.89
5.68
5.14
6.56
5.91
6.70
6.03
NEW TERM. IV.1.12
3.50
2.80
4.51
3.89
5.68
5.14
6.56
5.91
6.70
6.03
87
1 9 9 6
TERMINAL
AREA
NEW TERM. IV.1.13
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 6
2 0 1 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 1 6
3.50
2.80
4.51
3.89
5.68
5.14
6.56
5.91
6.70
6.03
521.02
430.54
683.29
563.63
840.47
717.53
912.60
827.80
931.50
844.88
TERMINAL IV.2.1
100.80
84.00
130.41
106.26
142.12
119.38
135.33
123.02
143.08
130.08
TERMINAL IV.2.2
40.32
32.26
51.00
44.05
57.30
51.85
59.05
53.15
62.44
56.19
TERMINAL IV.2.3
23.94
19.15
30.28
26.15
34.02
30.78
35.06
31.56
37.07
33.36
TERMINAL IV.2.4
26.88
21.50
34.00
29.37
38.20
34.56
39.37
35.43
41.62
37.46
ZONE IV.1
ZONE IV.2
TERMINAL IV.2.5
21.00
16.80
26.57
22.94
29.85
27.00
30.76
27.68
32.52
29.27
212.94
173.71
272.26
228.77
301.49
263.57
299.57
270.84
316.73
286.36
733.96
604.25
955.55
TERMINAL V.1.1
424.03
353.36
TERMINAL V.1.2
8.96
7.17
TERMINAL V.1.3
13.44
TERMINAL V.1.4
8.96
TERMINAL V.1.5
17.92
ZONE IV.2
REGION IV
REGION V
792.4 1141.96
981.1 1212.17 1098.64 1248.23 1131.24
568.91
447.00
597.86
502.20
595.15
517.52
622.04
540.90
12.88
10.30
13.34
11.52
13.12
11.15
13.72
11.66
10.75
19.32
15.46
20.01
17.28
19.68
16.73
20.57
17.49
7.17
12.88
10.30
13.34
11.52
13.12
11.15
13.72
11.66
14.34
25.76
20.61
26.68
23.04
26.24
22.31
27.43
23.32
ZONE V.1
TERMINAL V.1.6
8.96
7.17
12.88
10.30
13.34
11.52
13.12
11.15
13.72
11.66
TERMINAL V.1.7
13.44
10.75
19.32
15.46
20.01
17.28
19.68
16.73
20.57
17.49
TERMINAL V.1.8
13.44
10.75
19.32
15.46
20.01
17.28
19.68
16.73
20.57
17.49
TERMINAL V.1.9
22.40
17.92
32.20
25.76
33.35
28.80
32.81
27.89
34.29
29.15
TERMINAL V.1.10
35.00
28.00
50.31
40.25
52.11
45.01
51.26
43.57
53.58
45.54
TERMINAL V.1.11
31.36
25.09
45.08
36.06
46.69
40.32
45.93
39.04
48.00
40.80
TERMINAL V.1.12
17.64
14.11
25.36
20.29
26.26
22.68
25.83
21.96
27.00
22.95
TERMINAL V.1.13
12.46
9.97
17.91
14.33
18.55
16.02
18.25
15.51
19.07
16.21
TERMINAL V.1.14
8.96
7.17
12.88
10.30
13.34
11.52
13.12
11.15
13.72
11.66
TERMINAL V.1.15
17.92
14.34
25.76
20.61
26.68
23.04
26.24
22.31
27.43
23.32
TERMINAL V.1.16
8.96
7.17
12.88
10.30
13.34
11.52
13.12
11.15
13.72
11.66
TERMINAL V.1.17
11.20
8.96
16.10
12.88
16.68
14.40
16.40
13.94
17.14
14.57
TERMINAL V.1.18
8.96
7.17
12.88
10.30
13.34
11.52
13.12
11.15
13.72
11.66
684.01
561.36
942.63
745.97
984.93
836.47
975.87
841.14
1020.01
879.19
TERMINAL V.2.1
6.00
4.80
9.72
7.78
11.29
9.75
13.41
11.40
14.84
12.62
TERMINAL V.2.2
49.00
39.20
123.48
98.78
156.47
135.14
164.67
139.97
190.09
161.58
NEW TERM. V.2.3
3.00
2.40
7.56
6.05
9.58
8.27
10.08
8.57
11.64
9.89
58.00
46.40
140.76
112.61
177.34
153.16
188.16
159.94
216.57
184.09
TERMINAL V.3.1
112.50
90.00
182.25
145.80
211.70
182.83
251.50
213.78
278.34
236.59
TERMINAL V.3.2
3.75
3.00
6.08
4.86
7.06
6.09
8.38
7.13
9.28
7.89
116.25
93.00
188.33
150.66
218.76
188.92
259.88
220.91
287.62
244.48
858.26
700.76
TERMINAL VI.1.1
234.00
195.00
379.08
315.90
416.99
350.27
427.34
390.18
467.76
427.09
TERMINAL VI.1.2
12.84
10.27
20.80
16.64
24.16
20.86
24.46
22.02
26.78
24.10
TERMINAL VI.1.3
26.00
20.80
42.12
33.70
48.93
42.25
49.55
44.59
54.23
48.81
ZONE V.1
ZONE V.2
ZONE V.2
ZONE V.3
ZONE V.3
REGION V
REGION VI
1271.72 1009.24 1381.03 1178.55 1423.91 1221.99 1524.20 1307.76
ZONE VI.1
88
1 9 9 6
TERMINAL
AREA
TERMINAL VI.1.4
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 6
2 0 1 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 1 6
18.72
14.98
30.33
24.26
35.23
30.42
35.67
32.11
39.05
35.14
TERMINAL VI.1.5
12.48
9.98
20.22
16.17
23.48
20.28
23.78
21.40
26.03
23.43
TERMINAL VI.1.6
6.24
4.99
10.11
8.09
11.74
10.14
11.89
10.70
13.02
11.71
TERMINAL VI.1.7
31.66
25.32
51.28
41.02
59.57
51.45
60.32
54.29
66.03
59.43
TERMINAL VI.1.8
7.80
6.24
12.64
10.11
14.68
12.68
14.86
13.38
16.27
14.64
TERMINAL VI.1.9
24.96
19.97
40.44
32.35
46.97
40.56
47.56
42.81
52.06
46.86
TERMINAL VI.1.10
3.25
2.60
5.27
4.21
6.12
5.28
6.19
5.57
6.78
6.10
TERMINAL VI.1.11
24.96
19.97
40.44
32.35
46.97
40.56
47.56
42.81
52.06
46.86
TERMINAL VI.1.12
5.20
4.16
8.42
6.74
9.79
8.45
9.91
8.92
10.85
9.76
TERMINAL VI.1.13
12.48
9.98
20.22
16.17
23.48
20.28
23.78
21.40
26.03
23.43
TERMINAL VI.1.14
12.48
9.98
20.22
16.17
23.48
20.28
23.78
21.40
26.03
23.43
TERMINAL VI.1.15
5.20
4.16
8.42
6.74
9.79
8.45
9.91
8.92
10.85
9.76
438.27
358.4
725.61
580.62
801.38
682.21
816.56
704.5
893.83
810.55
TERMINAL VI.2.1
93.75
75.00
146.25
117.00
185.33
160.06
187.68
168.91
200.67
180.61
TERMINAL VI.2.2
62.50
50.00
97.50
78.00
123.55
106.70
125.12
112.61
133.78
120.40
TERMINAL VI.2.3
25.00
20.00
39.00
31.20
49.42
42.68
50.05
45.04
53.51
48.16
TERMINAL VI.2.4
5.00
4.00
7.80
6.24
9.88
8.54
10.01
9.01
10.70
9.63
ZONE VI.1
ZONE VI.2
TERMINAL VI.2.5
5.00
4.00
7.80
6.24
9.88
8.54
10.01
9.01
10.70
9.63
191.25
153.00
282.75
238.68
378.06
326.52
382.87
344.58
409.36
368.43
TERMINAL VI.3.1
153.00
127.50
278.46
232.05
346.91
291.41
372.46
340.07
411.29
375.52
ZONE VI.3
153.00
127.50
278.46
232.05
346.91
291.41
372.46
340.07
411.29
375.52
TERMINAL VI.4.1
97.51
81.26
232.08
193.40
301.70
253.43
309.19
282.31
341.23
311.56
ZONE VI.4
97.51
81.26
232.08
193.40
301.70
253.43
309.19
282.31
341.23
311.56
880.03
720.16
TERMINAL VII.1.1
121.50
101.25
153.70
128.08
162.53
133.51
158.57
139.54
170.95
150.44
TERMINAL VII.1.2
18.56
14.85
23.48
18.79
23.41
20.22
23.26
20.93
25.07
22.57
TERMINAL VII.1.3
9.45
7.56
11.95
9.56
11.92
10.29
11.84
10.66
12.76
11.49
TERMINAL VII.1.4
10.80
8.64
13.66
10.93
13.62
11.76
13.53
12.18
14.59
13.13
TERMINAL VII.1.5
13.50
10.80
17.08
13.66
17.03
14.71
16.91
15.22
18.24
16.41
TERMINAL VII.1.6
67.50
54.00
85.39
68.31
85.13
73.53
84.57
76.11
91.18
82.06
NEW TERM. VII.1.7
2.03
1.62
2.56
2.05
2.55
2.21
2.54
2.28
2.74
2.46
243.34
198.72
307.82
251.38
316.19
266.23
311.22
276.92
335.53
298.56
TERMINAL VII.2.1
76.59
63.83
124.08
103.40
166.76
136.98
165.86
145.95
177.60
156.29
TERMINAL VII.2.2
5.18
4.14
8.38
6.71
10.62
9.17
10.76
9.68
11.52
10.37
TERMINAL VII.2.3
1.73
1.38
2.79
2.24
3.54
3.06
3.59
3.23
3.84
3.46
TERMINAL VII.2.4
1.73
1.38
2.79
2.24
3.54
3.06
3.59
3.23
3.84
3.46
ZONE VI.2
ZONE VI.3
ZONE VI.4
REGION VI
REGION VII
1518.90 1244.75 1828.05 1553.57 1881.08 1707.46 2055.71 1866.06
ZONE VII.1
ZONE VII.1
ZONE VII.2
TERMINAL VII.2.5
ZONE VII.2
5.18
4.14
8.38
6.71
10.62
9.17
10.76
9.68
11.52
10.37
90.41
74.87
146.42
121.30
195.08
161.44
194.56
171.77
208.32
183.95
ZONE VII.2
ZONE VII.3
89
1 9 9 6
TERMINAL
AREA
TERMINAL VII.3.1
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 6
2 0 1 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 1 6
22.50
18.00
39.49
31.59
52.12
45.02
60.20
54.18
65.94
59.35
22.50
18.00
39.49
31.59
52.12
45.02
60.20
54.18
65.94
59.35
TERMINAL VII.4.1
18.75
15.00
31.50
25.20
39.92
34.47
43.17
38.85
47.58
42.82
ZONE VII.4
18.75
15.00
31.50
25.20
39.92
34.47
43.17
38.85
47.58
42.82
TERMINAL VII.5.1
45.00
37.50
72.90
60.75
82.33
67.63
83.47
73.46
93.13
81.95
ZONE VII.5
45.00
37.50
72.90
60.75
82.33
67.63
83.47
73.46
93.13
81.95
420.00
344.09
598.13
490.22
685.64
574.79
692.62
615.18
TERMINAL VIII.1.1
174.16
145.13
282.13
235.11
379.19
297.93
386.66
322.21
416.20
346.84
TERMINAL VIII.1.2
11.04
8.83
17.88
14.31
23.69
19.57
26.96
22.06
29.02
23.75
TERMINAL VIII.1.3
3.45
2.76
5.59
4.47
7.40
6.12
8.43
6.89
9.07
7.42
TERMINAL VIII.1.4
2.88
2.30
4.66
3.73
6.17
5.10
7.02
5.74
7.56
6.18
ZONE VII.3
ZONE VII.4
ZONE VII.5
REGION VII
REGION VIII
750.5 666.63
ZONE VIII.1
TERMINAL VIII.1.5
1.73
1.38
2.80
2.24
3.70
3.06
4.20
3.44
4.53
3.71
193.26
160.40
313.06
259.86
420.15
331.78
433.27
360.34
466.38
387.90
TERMINAL VIII.2.1
97.83
78.26
158.48
126.78
192.45
158.98
209.04
171.04
224.87
183.98
TERMINAL VIII.2.2
1.95
1.56
3.16
2.53
3.84
3.17
4.17
3.41
4.48
3.67
TERMINAL VIII.2.3
0.65
0.52
1.05
0.84
1.28
1.06
1.39
1.14
1.49
1.22
100.43
80.34
162.69
130.15
197.57
163.21
214.60
175.59
230.84
188.87
TERMINAL VIII.3.1
39.00
31.20
53.82
43.06
59.91
49.49
65.08
53.24
70.90
58.01
TERMINAL VIII.3.2
13.00
10.40
17.94
14.35
19.97
16.50
21.69
17.75
23.63
19.34
TERMINAL VIII.3.3
12.48
9.98
17.22
13.78
19.17
15.84
20.82
17.04
22.69
18.56
ZONE VIII.3
64.48
51.58
88.98
71.19
99.05
81.83
107.59
88.03
117.22
95.91
TERMINAL VIII.4.1
93.75
75.00
140.63
112.50
156.54
129.32
170.04
139.12
187.64
153.52
TERMINAL VIII.4.2
3.75
3.00
5.63
4.50
6.26
5.17
6.80
5.56
7.51
6.14
TERMINAL VIII.4.3
5.63
4.50
8.44
6.75
9.39
7.76
10.20
8.35
11.26
9.21
TERMINAL VIII.4.4
1.88
1.50
2.81
2.25
3.13
2.59
3.40
2.78
3.75
3.07
TERMINAL VIII.4.5
3.13
2.50
4.69
3.75
5.22
4.31
5.67
4.64
6.25
5.12
TERMINAL VIII.4.6
4.38
3.50
6.56
5.25
7.31
6.03
7.94
6.49
8.76
7.16
112.52
90.00
168.76
135.00
187.85
155.18
204.05
166.94
225.17
184.22
TERMINAL VIII.5.1
29.25
23.40
53.24
42.59
70.53
58.26
84.07
68.79
94.12
77.00
ZONE VIII.5
29.25
23.40
53.24
42.59
70.53
58.26
84.07
68.79
94.12
77.00
499.94
405.72
786.73
638.79
975.15
859.69 1133.73
933.9
TERMINAL IX.1.1
180.00
144.00
259.20
207.36
342.79
274.23
329.63
269.70
356.58
291.74
ZONE IX.1
180.00
144.00
259.20
207.36
342.79
274.23
329.63
269.70
356.58
291.74
46.20
36.96
66.53
53.22
95.80
76.64
105.07
85.97
113.59
92.93
ZONE VIII.1
ZONE VIII.2
ZONE VIII.2
ZONE VIII.3
ZONE VIII.4
ZONE VIII.4
ZONE VIII.5
REGION VIII
REGION IX
790.26 1043.58
ZONE IX.1
ZONE IX.2
TERMINAL IX.2.1
90
1 9 9 6
TERMINAL
AREA
ZONE IX.2
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 6
2 0 1 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 1 6
46.20
36.96
66.53
53.22
95.80
76.64
105.07
85.97
113.59
92.93
TERMINAL IX.3.1
40.00
32.00
72.80
58.24
113.57
90.85
124.56
101.91
137.96
112.88
ZONE IX.3
40.00
32.00
72.80
58.24
113.57
90.85
124.56
101.91
137.96
112.88
TERMINAL IX.4.1
13.75
11.00
19.80
15.84
26.14
20.91
27.36
22.39
30.80
25.20
TERMINAL IX.4.1
0.55
0.44
0.79
0.63
1.14
0.91
1.25
1.02
1.32
1.08
TERMINAL IX.4.1
1.65
1.32
2.38
1.90
2.87
2.30
3.01
2.46
3.30
2.70
TERMINAL IX.4.1
5.50
4.40
7.92
6.34
10.45
8.36
10.94
8.95
12.32
10.08
21.45
17.16
30.89
24.71
40.60
32.48
42.56
34.82
47.74
39.06
TERMINAL IX.5.1
84.00
67.20
115.92
92.74
139.97
111.98
139.88
114.44
150.70
123.30
ZONE IX.5
84.00
67.20
115.92
92.74
139.97
111.98
139.88
114.44
150.70
123.30
371.65
297.32
545.34
436.27
732.73
586.18
741.70
606.84
ZONE IX.3
ZONE IX.4
ZONE IX.4
ZONE IX.5
REGION IX
806.57 659.91
COUNTRY 10 447 9 200 14 883 12 997 16 258 14 432 17 802 16 108 18 668 16 858
The thereafter-estimated number of circuits is based on forecasted traffic and the
required grade of service (see par. 2.4.4.1). Circuits for manual and other services
should also been considered.
The calculation of the above traffic data needs:
-
Analysis of the available measurement of the originating and terminating

calling rates of the subscribers in the terminal exchanges.
Pattern distribution of traffic (see Table 2.8) related to categories of traffic in the
trunk network (internal or local, outgoing and incoming long-distance and
international).
Evolution of the average traffic per subscriber in the future, based on the
evolution of each component related to the offered traffic and subscribers.
Calculation of traffic per category in all terminal exchanges and aggregation
per Region exchange.
2.3.3.3 Estimation of Traffic Distribution

Traffic originates from terminal exchanges and is distributed to other areas or levels
of the network. Consequently, this distribution (see Table 2.8) of traffic must be
estimated as a function of the following:
a)
b)
c)
Terminating or internal traffic.

Long-distance national traffic.
International traffic.
Due to lack of relevant historical data, it was necessary to assume that a series of
measurements was performed. These measurements were conducted with the already
91
existing network structure in the five major Regions I to V. As it is shown in the first
row of table 2.8, the traffic is mainly distributed in local, long-distance and
international one. The second row of this table corresponds to the proposed network
structure in par. 2.3.1. The second part of the table shows the percentage for each
traffic category and based on that distribution the local, long-distance and
international types of traffic for the year 1996 are calculated.
Considering the situation in the Republic, and experience in other similar countries,
the traffic figures of the following paragraphs for busy hour inter-regional trunk
traffic have been estimated.
Traffic calculations are based on the Erlang Loss theory (1 and 33). In accordance
with the change in traffic features, the traffic management method should be
diversified, for example measuring by Bit, Page, Packet, etc. On the basis of these
traffic measurement units, a new concept of traffic theory should be established.
However, there has been no standard traffic forecasting method for the various
services. Moreover, a unified rule cannot be applied to all the services. It is considered
that the traffic forecast of various services can be estimated mostly by a method based
on a macroscopic basis.
It is also important to measure and analyse the traffic data of ISDN field trial and
commercial services, and those of other enhanced services. Then the results should be
examined and modified according to the actual trend data.
The contribution of various services (e.g. manual, ISDN, etc.) to the total traffic will
be of the order of a few percent. As previously mentioned, the traffic of non-voice
services is non redundant and the information is condensed, therefore it will not exert
so much influence on the total traffic. Empirically, five percent of the telephone traffic
is considered as the contribution of various services and is adopted for estimating
telecommunication facility expansion plans.
92
Table 2.8
Traffic distribution
REGION
REMAINS REMAINS
REMAINS REMAINS IN OUTGOING INTERNA
IN LOCAL IN GROUP
IN ZONE
THE SAME REGION
TIONAL
AREA (Erl) AREA (Erl) AREA (Erl)
REGION
AREA (Erl) TRAFFIC
AREA (Erl)
(Erl)
Local or Internal
TOTAL
TRAFFIC
(Erl)
Long-distance
REGION I
860,86
1062,57
159,14
78,05
308,18
130,5
2599,3
REGION II
113,34
170,02
29,70
12,51
47,69
17,59
390,85
REGION III
105,13
157,70
27,56
11,59
44,23
16,31
362,52
REGION IV
107,10
7,98
24,15
61,53
9,24
210,00
REGION V
190,61
285,92
49,95
21,03
80,19
29,57
657,27
TOTAL 1377,04
1684,19
290,50
123,18
541,82
203,21
4219.94
REMAINS
IN LOCAL
AREA %
REMAINS
IN GROUP
AREA %
REMAINS REMAINS IN OUTGOING INTERNAIN ZONE

THE SAME
REGION
TIONAL
AREA %
REGION
AREA %
TRAFFIC
AREA %
%
Local or Internal
TOTAL
%
Long-distance
REGION I
33,12
40,88
6,12
3,00
11,86
5,02
100
REGION II
29,00
43,50
7,60
3,20
12,20
4,50
100
REGION III
29,00
43,50
7,60
3,20
12,20
4,50
100
REGION IV
51,00
3,80
11,50
0,00
29,30
4,40
100
REGION V
29,00
43,50
7,60
3,20
12,20
4,50
100
2.3.3.4 Forecasting of Internal and Local Traffic

Internal traffic is the traffic of the Terminal exchange area between two subscribers of
the same Terminal exchange. This will be the majority of the cases in the Republic.
All the Terminal exchanges are supposed to switch the traffic of their own terminal
area, so that this traffic is not sent to the Region exchange like the rest of the types of
traffic. Thus, by applying the percentages of traffic of the distribution Table 2.8 on the
subscriber traffic of Table 2.7, we obtain the traffic data of Table 2.9. Due to similar
social and financial structure, it is supposed that for Regions VI, VII, VIII and IX the
traffic distribution of Region V is applied. Table 2.9 gives the total (internal and local)
traffic within each Region.
93
Table 2.9
Internal and Local Traffic in each Region
REGION
1 9 9 6
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 0 6
2 0 1 1
at(Erl/sb)
ao (Erl/sb)
2 0 1 6
3.589
2.766
4.896
4.942
5.035
5.035
5.767
5.766
6.052
6.052
REGION II
924
1.124
1.540
1.540
1.686
1.686
1.868
1.868
1.904
1.904
REGION III
984
984
1.201
1.211
1.481
1.484
1640
1640
1.750
1.750
REGION IV
648
648
940
940
1.150
1.150
1.289
1.289
1.333
1.333
REGION V
856
857
1.201
1.211
1.2666
1.306
1.336
1.376
1.470
1.470
REGION VI
720
720
1.098
1.098
1.359
1.359
1.469
1.469
1.503
1.503
REGION VII
394
394
527
527
610
610
633
633
687
687
REGION VIII
402
402
609
609
813
813
864
864
949
949
REGION IX
262
261
378
378
492
492
546
546
609
609
REGION I
We suppose that in the Republic there is only one multi-exchange urban network in
Capital creating Local traffic. To calculate this type of traffic we need:
-
Analysis of the available traffic measurement (The application of the

percentages of traffic distribution of Table 2.8 on the subscriber traffic of Table
2.7, has as a result that a traffic of about 1400Erl is the Local one).
A well-established switching and routing plan for the Region, which has not
been carried-out yet (see par. 1.1.1.1).
Set-up of a point-to-point matrix of traffic (the offered traffic to transit
routes is broken down into point-to-point flows of traffic between terminal
exchanges) according to par. 1.2.4.3.
Use of Kruithofs algorithm and affinity factors (see par. 1.2.4.2.4) for traffic
forecasting.
2.3.3.5 Forecasting of Long-distance Traffic

These forecasts are intimately related to the routing and switching plan, (see par.
1.1.2.1). However, to provide a better understanding of the traffic matrices, a brief
description of this plan is presented below.
Traffic originating in Terminal exchange areas is routed to other Terminal exchange
areas using Region exchanges such as Region I, Region II, Region III, Region IV,
Region V, Region VI, Region VII, Region VIII and Region IX. Traffic destinated to
or incoming from the international network is also transiting via the corresponding
Region exchange.
Thus, by applying the percentages of traffic distribution of Table 2.8 on the subscriber
traffic of Table 2.7, we obtain the traffic data of Table 2.10. It is supposed that the
traffic distribution of Region V is also applied for Regions VI, VII, VIII and IX. Table
2.10 gives the total traffic outgoing from or incoming to each Region.
94
Therefore, it was considered necessary to establish a base matrix for inter-regional

traffic, from which the inter-region traffic could be derived in the first place.
Unfortunately, no basic traffic dispersion data, neither manual ticketing is available.
Thus, it was only possible to prepare a hypothetical interest matrix given in Table
2.11. This hypothetical matrix was based on the subscribers and long-distance traffic
of previous forecasts and takes into account the relative distances, economic and
administrative interests and other available data, which can serve as guidelines for the
dispersion studies. When the SPC exchanges are put into operation more reliable
dispersion figures can be obtained and the matrix should be upgraded.
Preparing the hypothetical interest matrix, and the subsequent route matrices, the
following assumptions were made:
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
The total traffic is a function of the growth of the telephone network.

Each region was treated alike but, as the system size grows and direct dialling
facilities become more widespread, there is a tendency for calling rates to vary,
therefore this had been reflected in the matrices.
Traffic between adjacent regions will be increased in the future.
During the first five years of the plan, the majority of the inter-regional traffic
will be in Region I.
During the next ten years, some decentralization will take place and traffic
between other regions will be increased.
The traffic has been assumed to depend on the distances and the general
geographical configuration, with certain exceptions related to probable traffic
development between the major airports, roads, etc.
Based on these assumptions and on the hypothetical interest matrix, working matrices
for 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016 were prepared, and are given in Tables 2.12,
2.13, 2.14, 2.15 and 2.16. These tables resulted from the application of Kruithofs
algorithm. They correspond to the routing plan and form the basis for the circuit
forecasting.
95
Table 2.10
Forecasting of outgoing and incoming traffic of each Region
ZONE EXCHANGES
Year
outg.
1996
incom.
Year
outg.
2001
incom.
Year
outg.
2006
incom.
Year
outg.
2011
incom.
Year
outg.
2016
incom.
REGION I
710.99 734.48
979.79 1070.35 1158.48 1272.94 1334.83 1413.18 1489.53
REGION II
219.87 208.99
338.58
295.67
359.46
353.56
373.95 401.05 394.74
439.16
REGION III
246.83 243.41
328.71
347.65
375.60
413.35
438.65 465.25 456.02
510.59
REGION IV
147.91 139.26
216.15
198.05
268.52
234.45
308.75 264.74 320.35
289.37
REGION V
197.60 149.61
300.10
212.12
333.60
252.80
369.20 285.48 390.70
312.33
REGION VI
164.61 198.75
257.95
281.39
332.63
331.94
378.33 374.25 412.72
408.62
REGION VII
101.30 106.38
141.22
150.94
175.08
178.98
178.41 201.71 193.12
219.63
REGION VIII
114.01 115.18
165.54
163.77
224.72
193.22
231.28 218.50 264.49
238.62
74.64
98.39
106.48
128.77
126.62
153.47 142.70 171.53
155.71
480.76 480.76
689.50
689.50
822.05
822.05
921.73 921.73 1003.89
1003.89
3515.93 3515.92 4178.91 4179.91 4688.60 4688.59 5097.09
5097.10
67.58
REGION IX
INTERNATIONAL
TOTAL 2451.46 2451.46

Total incom. + outg.
4902.92
7031.85
8358.82
96
9377.19
1519.18
10194.19
Table 2.11
Interest Matrix
REGIONS
REGION REGION REGION REGION REGION REGION REGION REGION REGION INTERNA
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
TIONAL
TOTAL
REGION I
0.13
0.16
0.08
0.09
0.12
0.06
0.07
0.04
0.25
REGION II
0.45
0.08
0.04
0.05
0.07
0.03
0.04
0.02
0.22
REGION III
0.42
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.07
0.05
0.03
0.02
0.23
REGION IV
0.45
0.06
0.07
0.05
0.07
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.20
REGION V
0.41
0.07
0.08
0.05
0.06
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.24
REGION VI
0.40
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.27
REGION VII
0.42
0.06
0.08
0.04
0.05
0.05
0.03
0.02
0.25
REGION VIII
0.40
0.06
0.07
0.03
0.04
0.06
0.02
0.02
0.30
REGION IX
0.42
0.06
0.08
0.04
0.05
0.05
0.02
0.03
0.25
INTERNATIONAL
0.42
0.10
0.11
0.06
0.07
0.09
0.05
0.06
0.04
97
Table 2.12
Traffic matrix for the year 1996
REGIONS
REGION I
REGION REGION REGION REGION REGION REGION REGION REGION REGION INTERN.
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
92.43
113.76
56.88
63.99
85.32
42.66
49.77
28.44
177.75
710.99
17.59
8.79
10.99
15.39
6.60
8.79
4.40
48.37
219.87
14.81
12.34
17.28
12.34
7.40
4.94
56.77
246.83
7.40
10.35
5.92
4.44
4.44
29.58
147.91
11.86
7.90
5.93
3.95
47.42
197.60
3.29
4.94
4.94
44.44
164.61
3.04
2.03
25.33
101.30
2.28
34.20
114.01
16.90
67.58
REGION II
98.94
REGION III
103.67
17.28
REGION IV
66.56
8.87
10.35
REGION V
81.02
13.83
15.81
9.88
REGION VI
65.84
11.52
11.52
9.88
8.23
REGION VII
42.55
6.08
8.10
4.05
5.07
5.07
REGION VIII
45.60
6.84
7.98
3.42
4.56
6.84
2.28
REGION IX
28.38
4.05
5.41
2.70
3.38
3.38
1.35
2.03
INTERNATIONAL
201.92
48.08
52.88
28.85
33.65
43.27
24.04
28.85
19.23
TOTAL
734.48
208.99
243.41
139.26
149.61
198.75
106.38
115.18
74.64
480.76
TOTAL
480.76
2,451.46
2,451.46
98
Table 2.13
REGIONS
REGION I
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
127.37
TOTAL
156.77
78.38
88.18
117.57
58.79
68.59
39.19
244.95
979.79
REGION II
152.36
27.09
13.54
16.93
23.70
10.16
13.54
6.77
74.49
338.58
REGION III
138.06
23.01
19.72
16.44
23.01
16.44
9.86
6.57
75.60
328.71
REGION IV
97.27
12.97
15.13
10.81
15.13
8.65
6.48
6.48
43.23
216.15
REGION V
123.04
21.01
24.01
15.01
18.01
12.00
9.00
6.00
72.02
300.10
REGION VI
103.18
18.06
18.06
15.48
12.90
5.16
7.74
7.74
69.65
257.95
REGION VII
59.31
8.47
11.30
5.65
7.06
7.06
4.24
2.82
35.31
141.22
REGION VIII
66.22
9.93
11.59
4.97
6.62
9.93
3.31
3.31
49.66
165.54
REGION IX
41.32
5.90
7.87
3.94
4.92
4.92
1.97
2.95
24.60
98.39
289.59
68.95
75.85
41.37
48.27
62.06
34.48
41.37
27.58
TOTAL 1,070.35
295.67
347.65
198.05
212.12
281.39
150.94
163.77
106.48
INTERNATIONAL
689.50
689.50
3,515.93
3,515.93
99
Table 2.14
REGIONS
REGION I
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
150.60
185.36
92.68
104.26
139.02
69.51
81.09
46.34
TOTAL
289.62 1,158.48
REGION II
161.76
28.76
14.38
17.97
25.16
10.78
14.38
7.19
79.08
359.46
REGION III
157.75
26.29
22.54
18.78
26.29
18.78
11.27
7.51
86.39
375.60
REGION IV
120.83
16.11
18.80
13.43
18.80
10.74
8.06
8.06
53.70
268.52
REGION V
136.78
23.35
26.69
16.68
20.02
13.34
10.01
6.67
80.06
333.60
REGION VI
133.05
23.28
23.28
19.96
16.63
6.65
9.98
9.98
89.81
332.63
REGION VII
73.53
10.50
14.01
7.00
8.75
8.75
5.25
3.50
43.77
175.08
REGION VIII
89.89
13.48
15.73
6.74
8.99
13.48
4.49
4.49
67.42
224.72
REGION IX
54.08
7.73
10.30
5.15
6.44
6.44
2.58
3.86
32.19
128.77
345.26
82.20
90.43
49.32
57.54
73.98
41.10
49.32
32.88
822.05
TOTAL 1,272.94
353.56
413.35
234.45
252.80
331.94
177.98
193.22
126.62
INTERNATIONAL
822.05
4,178.91
4,178.91
100
Table 2.15
REGIONS
REGION I
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
173.53
213.57
106.79
120.13
160.18
80.09
93.44
53.39
TOTAL
333.71 1,334.83
REGION II
168.28
29.92
14.96
18.70
26.18
11.22
14.96
7.48
82.27
373.95
REGION III
184.23
30.71
26.32
21.93
30.71
21.93
13.16
8.77
100.89
438.65
REGION IV
138.94
18.53
21.61
15.44
21.61
12.35
9.26
9.26
61.75
308.75
REGION V
151.37
25.84
29.54
18.46
22.15
14.77
11.08
7.38
88.61
369.20
REGION VI
151.33
26.48
26.48
22.70
18.92
7.57
11.35
11.35
102.15
378.33
REGION VII
74.93
10.70
14.27
7.14
8.92
8.92
5.35
3.57
44.60
178.41
REGION VIII
92.51
13.88
16.19
6.94
9.25
13.88
4.63
4.63
69.38
231.28
REGION IX
64.46
9.21
12.28
6.14
7.67
7.67
3.07
4.60
38.37
153.47
387.13
92.17
101.39
55.30
64.52
82.96
46.09
55.30
36.87
921.73
TOTAL 1,413.18
401.05
465.25
264.74
285.48
374.25
201.71
218.50
142.70
INTERNATIONAL
921.73
4,688.60
4,688.60
101
Table 2.16
REGIONS
REGION I
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
193.64
238.32
119.16
134.06
178.74
89.37
104.27
59.58
TOTAL
372.38 1,489.53
REGION II
177.63
31.58
15.79
19.74
27.63
11.84
15.79
7.89
86.84
394.74
REGION III
191.53
31.92
27.36
22.80
31.92
22.80
13.68
9.12
104.88
456.02
REGION IV
144.16
19.22
22.42
16.02
22.42
12.81
9.61
9.61
64.07
320.35
REGION V
160.19
27.35
31.26
19.54
23.44
15.63
11.72
7.81
93.77
390.70
REGION VI
165.09
28.89
28.89
24.76
20.64
8.25
12.38
12.38
111.43
412.72
REGION VII
81.11
11.59
15.45
7.72
9.66
9.66
5.79
3.86
48.28
193.12
REGION VIII
105.80
15.87
18.51
7.93
10.58
15.87
5.29
5.29
79.35
264.49
72.04
10.29
13.72
6.86
8.58
8.58
3.43
5.15
42.88
171.53
421.63
100.39
110.43
60.23
70.27
90.35
50.19
60.23
40.16
TOTAL 1,519.18
439.16
510.59
289.37
312.33
408.62
219.63
238.62
REGION IX
INTERNATIONAL
1,003.89
155.71 1,003.89
5,097.09
5,097.09
102
2.3.3.6 Forecasting of International Traffic

The main stimulus for the growth of this traffic (36) is the volume of international
trade and, in the case of Republic, the existence of separated families across the
borders. However, other factors such as distance, language, time differences and high
costs can often inhibit this growth. Cost, in particular, can be a limiting factor
although in many developing countries technical considerations may have an
important influence. For example, poor quality transmission will discourage the use of
the international service. Long delays in setting-up time and the necessity for booking
calls add more restrictions. Even if transmission is satisfactory, purely manual control
of international calls and, to a smaller extent, semi-automatic working, produce a very
low economic efficiency rate on the provided circuits. On the other hand, changes in
the mode of operation and improvements in transmission means have produced a
much more impressive effect on traffic growth in developing, than in already
developed, countries.
2.3.3.6.1 Growth of International Traffic

We assume that historical traffic data for the period 1990 and 1995 exist for the
Former State of the Republic. These data cannot be used for the calculation of
International traffic, because it is not possible to distinguish which part of traffic
belongs to the Republic. Thus the lack of reliable historical data (paid minutes)
prohibits the calculation of International traffic. Therefore, this type of traffic can be
estimated using traffic data of the exchanges in Regions I to V (Table 2.8).
In general, traffic measurement is required on international routes for the forecasting
of traffic revenues, as well as for the network dimensioning. However, due to the lack
of sophisticated measuring equipment, the measurements may not be reliable enough
to be used as the single basis for extrapolations or trend analysis.
2.3.3.6.2 Technique of International Traffic Forecasting

Although the considerations in the previous paragraphs are a necessary part of
forecasting, they do not provide for the present case a sufficiently consistent historical
database, on which trend method of forecasting (see par 1.2.4.4) can be based with
confidence.
However, there are two approaches for the study of international traffic:
a)
Forecasting based on the number of subscribers

Detailed studies (37) on international traffic have shown that the international
traffic originating from a country is well represented by the following power
function:
Originating international traffic = a (number of subscriber lines)b
The trend is represented by the exponent b, which takes a value always greater
than 1 and often of the order of 2. Using the available historical data, average
values of a and b of 0.0026 and 1.45 respectively were calculated. The
103
application of these values to the forecasted number of subscribers gives the

results of Table 2.17:
Table 2.17
Results of regression analysis using correlation between number of
subscribers and outgoing international traffic
Year
Subscribers
1996
2001
2005
2011
2016
408.714
592.734
727.747
834.656
886.156
Paid minutes per

average day
356.065
610.407
821.948
1.002.672
1.093.610
Unfortunately the traffic measurements in a country like Republic cannot

support the identification of the parameters d, h and e (see par. 1.2.4.4), which
describe the behaviour of subscribers. In order to specify these parameters,
reliable detailed measurements in manual ticketing for a long period and digital
exchanges are needed.
b)
Proposed forecasting method

To overcome these difficulties the following method is proposed. A series of
measurements was supposed to be conducted to identify the distribution of
international traffic between the Republic and other countries. These
measurements were performed in Regions I to V. The resulting total (outgoing
and incoming) international traffic distribution is shown in Table 2.18. We note
that, due to modern signalling systems (Common Channel Signalling #7),
bothway trunks should be used and thus it is not necessary to discriminate
between outgoing and incoming traffic.
2.3.3.6.3 International Traffic with Specific Countries

Table 2.18 shows the telecommunication traffic interest for specific countries. The
presentation of this traffic shows the interest between the subscribers of these
countries and the subscribers of the Republic.
By applying the average international traffic percentage (4.5%) of Table 2.8 on the
Countrys total subscriber traffic of Table 2.7 we obtain the total international traffic.
Then this traffic is distributed to/from the specific countries according to the
measured distribution. Table 2.18 shows also the extrapolation of this traffic to the
years 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016 according to the forecasted number of
subscribers
104
Table 2.18
Distribution of total international traffic to/from Republic
INTERNA
TIONAL
CODE
COUNTRY
TOTA L
MEASURED
TRAFFIC
(Erl)
INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC (Erl)
1996
2001
2005
2011
2016
99-385
CROATIA
46
13.99%
134.52
192.92
230.00
257.90
280.88
99-386
SLOVENIA
16
4.87%
46.82
67.16
80.06
89.78
97.78
99-389
FYROM
1.22%
11.74
16.82
20.06
22.50
24.50
20
6.08%
58.46
83.84
99.96
112.08
122.08
99-1
USA & CANADA
99-30
GREECE
2.43%
23.36
33.50
39.96
44.80
48.78
99-31
HOLLAND
1.82%
17.50
25.10
29.92
33.56
36.54
99-41
SWISS
14
4.26%
40.96
58.74
70.04
78.54
85.54
99-43
AUSTRIA
28
8.52%
81.92
117.50
140.08
157.06
171.06
99-44
GREAT BRITAIN
1.22%
11.74
16.82
20.06
22.50
24.50
99-46
SWEDEN
2.43%
23.36
33.50
39.96
44.80
48.78
99-49
GERMANY
58
17.64%
169.62
243.26
290.02
325.18
354.18
99-381
YUGOSLAVIA
96,8
29.44%
283.08
405.98
484.02
542.72
593.10
99-XX
OTHER
COUNTRIES
20
6.08%
58.46
83.84
99.96
112.08
122.08
328,8
100%
480.76
689.5
822.05
TOTAL
921.73 1003.89
2.3.4 Circuit Forecasting

Dimensioning is defined as the process whereby equipment quantities for a traffic
route, a switching stage, an exchange or the whole telecommunication network, is
determined on the basis of given traffic data and the required grade of service.
Trunk circuits are proposed to be engineered for a grade of service of 0.01 or 1 lost
call in 100 and this is also applied to international traffic, as well as to remote
concentrators. For junctions in the same town, a grade of service of 0.005 is proposed.
The traffic forecasts should include provision for ineffective traffic caused by faulty
circuits and equipment. The forecasting includes test calls and other service traffic.
105
The production of the Traffic Matrices (with the methodology which was described in
the previous paragraphs) provides us with data concerning the circuit point-to-point
forecasting of the various exchange hierarchical levels.
It should be noted that, the number of circuits that will be depicted on the
corresponding tables can be used for the estimation of the capacity of the transmission
systems between adjacent switching points. The dimensioning of circuit Trunk
Groups connecting switching points is carried out according to Erlang Loss formula
(31) with the use of existing tables (33).
The circuit engineering is conducted with the grade of service proposed above and it
should also include provision for leased lines for private and governmental use. The
requirements of civil aviation, meteorological, port, and other services, can also be
met within this provision. Provision should also be made for manual telephony,
telegraph and telex circuits.
In countries exiting a war, in certain cases, circuit forecasting is not directly related to
the traffic forecasting. This is due to unavoidable delays, concerning the provision of
the equipment so that it meets the demand. These delays may also be due to the
absence of electric power, time required to construct the buildings, to equipment
delivery, etc. The circuit forecasts are closely related to the equipment installation
schedules.
An alternative option for the hierarchical structure of the network is that traffic
between Zone exchanges is routed through transit exchanges in order to achieve
financial advantages from the creation of big trunk groups. Then transit exchanges
may be installed e.g. in Region I, Region V and Region VII for geographical reasons.
2.4
METHODOLOGY of ISDN FORECASTING
The spread-out of ISDN is a result of the need for second telephone line, the
development of telematic applications (telework, teletraining, teleconference, etc),
and mainly Internet. ISDN implementation should certainly be based upon technical
plans like the switching plan, transmission plan, routing plan, signalling plan,
synchronization plan and access network plan.
Since ISDN has not been introduced so far to the network of the Republic, the
whole problem should be faced from zero basis. The ISDN forecasting, in principle,
will follow the time milestones already set for switching plan, i.e. for the years 1996,
2001, etc. up to 2016.
2.4.1 Key Factors

In chapter 1 the various factors concerning the general problem of forecast (demand
forecast, traffic forecast) have been analysed. Beyond these factors, other key factors,
which influence the introduction and the diffusion of ISDN are: the tariff level, the
availability of service and the digitalisation rate.
106
The penetration of ISDN depends on the tariff level. If it is set too high, a PTSN
subscriber will not change to ISDN. The following Table 2.19 describes the tariff
level for both ISDN services (PRA and BRA) in the Country, the most developed
country in telecommunications in the region of Republic.
Table 2.19
Example of tariff level adjustment
Up to
1-3-99
234,6
23,46
2346
351,9
BRA installation fee

BRA monthly rental
PRA installation fee
PRA monthly rental
(Amounts in Euro)
1-3-99 to
21-11-99
87,98
17,6
2346
322,6
22-11-99 to now
58,65
17,6
1466,3
293,3
Installation fee for the ISDN in developed countries is 1 to 4 times as the one for
ordinary telephones, while basic monthly rental is 2 to 5 times greater (38).
Fig 2.1 and 2.2 show the evolution of applications for ISDN BRA and PRA in the
Country. In these figures there are three abrupt changes in March, August and
November 1999, thus verifying the close relation between the tariff levels and the
ISDN penetration. The change in demand in March 1999, was a consequence of the
new reduced tariff levels to about twice as the ordinary telephones (see Table 2.19).
The change in demand in November 1999, was a consequence of the further reduced
tariff levels. The change in demand in August 1999, was the result of an advertising
campaign.
BRA APPLICATIONS
7000
6000
5000
4000
BRA APPLICATIONS
3000
2000
Figure 2.1
Evolution of BRA applications
107
December 1999
November 1999
Oct ober 1999
Sept ember 1999
August 1999
July 1999
June 1999
May 1999
April 1999
March 1999
February 1999
January 1999
December 1998
November 1998
Oct ober 1998
Sept ember 1998
August 1998
July 1998
1000
PRA APPLICATIONS
300
250
200
150
PRA APPLICATIONS
100
50
December 1999
November 1999
O ctober 1999
September 1999
August 1999
July 1999
June 1999
May 1999
April 1999
March 1999
February 1999
January 1999
December 1998
November 1998
O ctober 1998
September 1998
August 1998
July 1998
Figure 2.2
Evolution of PRA applications
The following Table 2.20 describes the evolution of the ISDN BRA and PRA demand
in the Country. It is noted that the initially BRA and PRA connections are not null
because of test (service) connections.
Availability of ISDN is another key issue to its diffusion. It can be said that, the more
places ISDN is connected to, the more the demand is increased. It is obvious that this
can be achieved only with high digitalisation rates. Digitalisation is a prerequisite for
the ISDN connections, since analogue exchanges do not offer this possibility.
108
Table 2.20
ISDN evolution in Country
July 1998
August 1998
September 1998
October 1998
November 1998
December 1998
January 1999
February 1999
March 1999
April 1999
May 1999
June 1999
July 1999
August 1999
September 1999
October 1999
November 1999
December 1999
BRA
PRA Monthly
Monthly Monthly Total
Demand Demand Demand
(PSTN+
ISDN)
A
B
C
132
22712
120
45 19408
239
41 27917
274
35 21714
421
61 23370
279
37 17352
240
53 16665
287
55 10299
1010
60 40342
884
76 26302
1229
66 25928
1457
62 28102
1719
61 26400
1920
135 25701
3584
145 33040
3816
206 30391
6186
251 35643
6437
184 31941
% BRAISDN
Demand
to Total
Demand
A/C
0,581
0,618
0,856
1,262
1,801
1,608
1,440
2,787
2,504
3,361
4,740
5,185
6,511
7,471
10,847
12,556
17,355
20,153
% PRATotal
BRA
PRA/
%BRA/ %PRA ch /
ISDN Connected Connected Connected Connected Connected
Demand
Main
Main Lines Main Lines
to Total
Lines
Demand
B/C
D
E
F
E/D
30F/D
0,000
0,000
5491291
0,232 5500238
0,036
0,135
1997
248
0,147 5514909
0,040
0,177
2215
326
0,161 5523479
0,048
0,199
2678
366
0,261 5529540
0,052
0,208
2886
383
0,213 5535521
0,059
0,243
3258
448
0,318 5531999
0,064
0,270
3514
497
0,534 5531983
0,069
0,308
3813
568
0,149 5544448
0,082
0,337
4528
622
0,289 5552703
0,098
0,378
5429
699
0,255 5562257
0,123
0,426
6844
789
0,221 5569674
0,145
0,476
8096
884
0,231 5574417
0,182
0,542
10149
1008
0,525 5579900
0,205
0,554
11447
1031
0,439 5587201
0,265
0,628
14792
1170
0,678 5596469
0,301
0,599
16840
1118
0,704 5602180
0,405
0,717
22695
1338
0,576 5610931
0,491
0,790
27542
1478
109
2.4.2 ISDN Demand Forecast

Demand forecast for ISDN, in cases of lack of specific data, can be based on
international practice and experience. The ITU-T methodology already described in
par. 1.2.6 cannot be applied. Ordinary telephone connections do not increase
drastically in developed countries in the recent years. Therefore, ISDN forecasting is
possible only with the comparison method for a country presenting certain similarities
to the Republic, like the Country.
The growth of ISDN subscribers can be correlated to the growth of the total number
of telephone subscribers, but ISDN subscription will increase depending on the social
conditions, the tariffs and the availability of service. The following figures 2.3 and 2.4
represent the ISDN BRA and PRA growth in the Country. It can be seen that the
BRA growth follows an exponential trend, while the PRA growth follows a linear
trend. This is due to the fact that BRA connections are mainly addressed to
residential/small business subscribers, while PRA connections are addressed to large
business subscribers.
BRA %/CON. MAIN LINES

0,600
0,500
BRA %/CON. MAIN LINES
0,400
0,300
0,200
December 1999
November 1999
Oct ober 1999
Sept ember 1999
August 1999
July 1999
June 1999
May 1999
April 1999
March 1999
February 1999
January 1999
December 1998
November 1998
Oct ober 1998
Sept ember 1998
August 1998
0,000
July 1998
0,100
Figure 2.3
ISDN-BRA versus connected lines growth
This exponential curve indicates that an S-curve, with three distinct parts
(exponential, linear and Gompertz), similar to the one of par. 1.2.1.1.1 applies for the
penetration of ISDN connections. This is also supported by the data given in (15),
(16) and (17) for various countries. Up to now, no country has reached the saturation
phase for ISDN connections. Countries like Norway have reached a penetration of
44% in 2000 (38).
110
PRA %/ CON. MAIN LINES

0,900
0,800
0,700
0,600
0,500
0,400
0,300
0,200
0,100
0,000
December 1999
November 1999
October 1999
September 1999
August 1999
July 1999
June 1999
May 1999
April 1999
March 1999
February 1999
January 1999
December 1998
November 1998
October 1998
September 1998
August 1998
July 1998
PRA %/ CON. MAIN LINES
Figure 2.4
ISDN-PRA versus connected lines growth
Between the years 1996 and 1998, the exponential development of ISDN BRA for the
Republic is expected to be the same as in the Country. As shown in Table 2.20,
for the case of the Country, a total percentage of 1,28% ISDN connected channels
(BRA and PRA) was achieved in a period of 18 months, with a ratio 18,5 BRA to 1
PRA connection (30 channels) and a Total Telephone saturated penetration of about
56%. The same is expected to happen in the Republic by the year 2016. Between
the years 1998 and 2016 a linear trend is anticipated.
The data of Table 2.20 for the Country, which follow the exponential curve of fig.
2.3 for the BRA demand, can be fitted by the curve:
y=e
ax+b
where, a=0,1949832 and b= - 4,063109, with a correlation coefficient of 0,9986.

After this point (1998, 18 months after the beginning of 1996), we can safely assume
that the ISDN demand enters to the linear part of the S-curve. This linear part is
described by the tangent of the above exponential curve in year 1998 (18 months
later) and is:
y = (1+a(x-xo)) e
(axo +b)
where, xo = 18 and a and b are the values listed in the above exponential curve.
Applying the above equations for the Republic we obtain the ISDN BRA and PRA
demand of Table 2.21, which gives the forecast for ISDN BRA and PRA demand and
the resulting BRA penetration, for the years 2001 to 2016.
111
Table 2.21
ISDN BRA and PRA forecasts
1996
2001
%BRA/ConnectedLines
2006
2011
2016
5,284
12,010
18,737
25,464
Connected Lines
408.715
592.735
750.214
834.660
887.403
BRA (2B+D)
15.660*
31.320
90.101
156.390
225.968
846*
1.693
4870
8.454
12.214
PRA (30B+D)
1.151.847 1.222.528 1.317.010 1.418.794 1.528.444
Population
BRA penetration
2,56%
6,84%
11,02%
14,78%
* half of 2001
Given the forecasts for the year 2001, the estimation of the necessary initial capacities
of BRA and PRA is not any more a problem of forecasting, but a practical question of
finding an equilibrium between the availability of the service, its financing and the
time elapsing for the equipment installation. An empirical approach to this question is
that, initially (1996), half the forecast of 2001 should be installed. Therefore, an initial
installation of 15.660 BRA and 846 PRA connections can be considered as a good
approach to begin with.
Table 2.22 describes the distribution of the ISDN BRA connections in the Regions of
the Republic and Table 2.23 the distribution of the ISDN PRA connections in the
same Regions for the forecasting period. The distribution is based on the forecasted
number of subscriber demand of Table 2.5.
Table 2.22
Distribution of BRA demand
REGION
REGION I
REGION II
REGION III
REGION IV
REGION V
REGION VI
REGION VII
REGION VIII
REGION IX
COUNTRY
Demand
Demand
Demand
Demand
Demand
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
6.298
12.014
33.355
58.378
83.124
1.889
3.911
10.541
18.001
25.841
2.174
4.086
11.410
19.835
28.789
994
1.996
6.037
10.639
15.209
1.207
2.559
7.333
12.613
18.372
1.224
2.897
9.555
16.268
24.146
582
1.141
3340
5.725
8.430
722
1.563
4.912
8.614
12.721
570
1.153
3.617
6.318
9.336
15.660
31.320
90.101
156.390
225.968
112
Table 2.23
Distribution of PRA demand
REGION
REGION I
REGION II
REGION III
REGION IV
REGION V
REGION VI
REGION VII
REGION VIII
REGION IX
COUNTRY
Demand
Demand
Demand
Demand
Demand
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
340
649
1.803
3.156
4.493
102
211
570
973
1.397
117
221
617
1.072
1.556
54
108
326
575
822
65
138
396
682
993
66
157
516
879
1.305
31
62
181
309
456
39
85
265
466
688
31
62
196
342
505
846
1.693
4870
8.454
12.214
2.4.3 ISDN Traffic forecast

ITU-T Recommendations series E.7xx is devoted to ISDN traffic engineering, dealing
namely with offered traffic modelling (E.71x), Grade of Service objectives (E.72x)
and dimensioning rules (E.73x) in order to insure that sufficient network resources
will be allocated to handle the offered traffic, thus achieving the Grade of Service
objectives. Unfortunately, these theoretical models are extremely complex, need
special measurement facilities to provide data which do not exist even in developed
countries and, in any case, missing in countries exiting a war. Furthermore these,
models are incomplete leaving open subjects for the future.
Subscribers traffic measurements in the Country show that the average subscriber
originating and terminating traffic is the same for PSTN and ISDN subscribers. Thus
for ISDN introduction no specific traffic demand is set. For ISDN traffic demand
forecast in the Republic the resulting traffic in par 2.3.3 will be expected, since
ISDN subscribers result from PSTN subscriber conversion.
2.4.4 ISDN Switching plan

The introduction of ISDN services is closely related to the switching plan to be
followed in each country. Among the already defined sites for the installation of the
various hierarchical types of digital exchanges, those where digital exchanges will be
defined as combined (PSTN & ISDN) will be selected for the various steps of ISDN
evolution.
Therefore, the implementation of ISDN is proposed to be as follows:
113
a)
The implementation of ISDN may start from the sites where digital exchanges
are to be installed i.e. from the capitals of the Regions, thus having wide enough
dispersion of service availability. Among these three, PSTN/ISDN exchanges
namely the capitals of Region I, Region V and Region VII are proposed to
become combined. At the same time, these three will be STPs (Signalling
Transfer Points) as well. Local exchanges being defined as Remote Units of the
above exchanges may also provide ISDN connections. The initial ISDN
accesses are proposed to be distributed as shown in Tables 2.22 and 2.23 for the
year 1996.
b)
The next step is defined in the year 2001. In this one, as well as in the later
steps, the rest digital exchanges are going to be enriched in BRA and PRA
connections becoming combined PSTN/ISDN exchanges. The detailed
distribution of the ISDN connections in these steps must be defined in detail
after relevant data are collected and properly evaluated.
2.5
HE INFLUENCE of REFUGEES
One way to examine the influence of refugees is by seeking the weighted average
with the upper and lower limit solutions, which correspond respectively to the
assumptions that all war refugees stay in the considered area and all of them leave it
thereafter. Another way, is to assume some distribution, for example a negative
exponential distribution, for the relation between the number of leaving refugees and
the elapsed time. The results of these two methods will be compared and the proper
one will be adopted.
If we consider a Region with total population N, part of which is the number of
refugees NR, then the rate of total population change is:
= NR
t
(I)
and the rate of refugees population change is:

NR = NR NR
t
(II)
Where: = the annual rate of population increase (which is the same for local
population and refugees). In paragraph 2.2.3.1 this parameter was
defined as 1,5%.
= the rate of refugees departure from the initial installation region. This
parameter depends on the living conditions, the vocational reestablishment, the political environment, the repatriation opportunities,
etc.
The rate of change in installed telephones NT is:
NT = F(cN NT)
t
(III)
114
or the net demand d is:

d = cN NT
Where: c = the demand per inhabitant (assumed the same for local residents or
refugees). D = cN represents the total demand, that is the number of
telephones that should be installed to satisfy all applications. We assume
that there is a demand until NT = cN (usually c 1, this is also valid in
the case of Republic). As a result of Tables 2.2 and 2.5, this parameter
has the value 0,3548 for 1996, 0,4848 for 2001, 0,5696 for 2006 and
0,5806 for both 2011 and 2016.
F = constant representing the demand in the unit of time (percent of
telephones installed per year out of those requested (D)). This
parameter is considered as 0,7 for the first five years, that means that
70% of the new demand is fulfilled. Afterwards, this parameter is
considered as 1, which means that after the initial 5-year period the PTT
Republic satisfies completely the demand (which is a rather optimistic
assumption).
The possible three cases of the influence of refugees departure are described by the
parameter in fig 2.5.
(a)
tD
t
0
(b)
Fig. 2.5
Three cases of the rate of refugees departure
t
(c)
In the first case (a) that all refugees stay, = 0. This is a rather theoretical case, since
the refugees will try to adapt themselves according to their social origin and the
possibility to ensure a job similar to their original one. For example, lawyers, doctors,
etc. will seek to settle in urban centers. This is the assumption we made for our
forecasting.
In the second case (b) that all refugees depart at time tD, then (t) = 0 for tD < t and
(t) = 1 for t tD This is the case, where all refugees may be relocated by the state in
order to find more appropriate conditions. Therefore, this case can be rather applied
for the Region or the Zone exchange areas, than for the Country as a whole.
In the third case (c) that a negative exponential distribution describes the relation
at
between the number of leaving refugees and the elapsed time, (t) = e . The
115
parameter a defines the average rate of the refugee departure. The is the initial rate
of the exponential decrease of refugee departure. This is the case of emigration abroad or
relocation in other regions inside the country on an individual basis.
The equations (I), (II) and (III) form a mathematical system of ordinary differential
equations. The derived results are presented in Fig. 2.6 and are extensively discussed
in par. 3.4.
Fig 2.6 depicts, in arbitrary units, the influence of refugees on N, NT and NR for the
three distinct cases in a 20-year forecasting period. For this figure we assume an initial
refugee population of NR = 0,3N. We also assume that the parameter F = 0,7 for the
first 5 years and F = 1 for the rest of the years. Therefore, an initial value of NT =
0,24, resulting from Tables 2.2 and 2.5, is used. Finally, we assume that in the second
case (all refugees leave) the departure of refugees takes place within the first year.
Fig. 2.6
Influence of refugees on N, NT and NR
In Fig. 2.6 we can see that, the number of refugees NRall grows with the same rate of
1,5% per year as the total population N. Under the assumptions of the present
paragraph, the number of installed telephones NTall follows a curve that shows
saturation after about 12 years. In the other two cases, although NR and NRexp dont
change in the same way, the corresponding total population (N and Nexp) and the
installed telephones (NT and NTexp) have almost the same variation after about three
years and they also present saturation after about 12 years.
116
3. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

The present thesis contributes to the prediction of the subscriber, the traffic and the
ISDN demand for countries after a war, properly adapting the ITU-T methodology.
This methodology does not cover the case of a country under special circumstances,
as for example a country exiting from war named Republic. A war has as a result
not only the destruction of the telecommunications network, but, even more
important, the creation of a new social reality. This is expressed with the presence of
refugees in regions totally or partially evacuated by their original populations. Under
these circumstances it is useful to extend the ITU forecasting rules to the countries
under special circumstances by studying the influence of refugees presence.
Especially, we take into account the lack of historical data, the mobility of population
under these special circumstances, the presence of refugees, as well as the change of
the territorial status.
In the first chapter we present the subscriber, the traffic and the ISDN demand
methodology of ITU-T.
The accurate telephone demand and traffic forecasting is a basic need for every
Telecommunication Operator in order to allocate capitals in time, when the real needs
arise. For the Republic the existing limited historical data are used and the
internationally recommended methodologies of ITU-T are extended to offer a reliable
forecast. The results are reviewed in the present chapter. The subscriber forecasting is
carried-out for the years 1996, 2001, 2005, 2011 and 2016. A linear interpolation will
give the forecast for the years in-between.
Data concerning the traffic (originating and terminating) in each network level are the
basis on which the dimensioning of the network of the Republic will be built. The
traffic forecasting, based on the subscriber forecasting, was carried-out for the same
period.
The evolution of the ISDN network and the application of teleservices and
supplementary services will mainly follow the implementation of the switching plan.
This means that the implementation will start from the main urban and industrial areas
and then will pass to the rest of the terminal exchanges. A new method is presented
based on data of a country, with similarities to the examined one.
Finally the consequences of the mobility of refugees on the network development are
examined. This is examined for two extreme cases, i.e. the case that all refugees stay
in their new locations or the case that all of them leave them in a short period. A third
case, that refugees leave with a negative exponential rate is also examined. A fourth
case, in which that refugees leave with variable rate is finally examined. The results of
these four cases are then compared and discussed.
117
3.1
RESULTS from SUBSCRIBER FORECASTING
Precise Demand forecasting is of major importance to all telecommunications

organizations in order to outsource investment money on time, according to their
needs.
The par. 2.2 titled Methodology of subscriber demand forecasting deals with all
these aspects for the telecommunications organization of the Republic. The
methodology followed is one that has been presented by ITU-T and adopted in the
present study in the case of a country exiting from war. The study refers to the years
1996 up to 2016.
Initially, reference is made to all historical data that have been taken into account in
this study, an analysis of the strategies and the methodology of ITU-T applied in
similar studies is presented (e.g. for the definition of saturation level), and the final
results are depicted.
The data, which have been taken into account, come from official statistical data of
the former state of the Republic, from PTT Republic, from the University of the
Capital, and from data of similar network studies conducted in other countries.
Because of the special conditions that exist in the Republic, after the end of the war,
there has been great difficulty in gathering all needed data. Thus, in the relevant par.
2.2 a number of approximations have been made.
In the absence of reliable historical growth figures concerning solely the Republic
and not Former State of Republic, it was necessary to carry-out the demand
forecasting by means of population penetration studies and econometric methods.
These studies and the relevant results are also included in chapter 2.
The data presented are related to the subscriber forecasting (demand forecasting), to
the household forecasting, the population and the telephone density in each Terminal
exchange area up to the year 2016.
Based on the above mentioned data, on experience obtained from similar
telecommunication studies, and having in mind the international trends of the
telecommunication developments, the use of the methodology described in the
previous par. 1.2 and 1.3 were applied. As a result, the necessary data for the relative
telecommunication studies were estimated and are shown in the following Tables:
Table 2.1 Existing national network before and after the war. For each Terminal
exchange area the installed lines, in-use lines, existing penetration and
waiting list are given for the time before the war. These data are compared
with the corresponding ones after the war. The installed and in-use lines
present a small increase, while the waiting list presents an increase of 21%.
Table 2.2 Population Forecast. Based on the estimated population for each Zone
exchange area for the year 1996 and the annual rate of population increase
of 1,5%, this Table shows an estimation of the population for years 1996,
2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016. The total population of the Republic is
expected to become 1.528.444 by the year 2016 (see Fig. 3.1)
118
Table 2.3 Household forecast. Given the number of family members per household,
which ranges from 2,3 to 4,3, per Zone exchange area, this Table shows
the Household Forecasting for each Zone exchange area for the years
1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016. A number of 440.933 households is
estimated for the year 2016. Then the number of residential subscribers is
calculated on the assumption that there will be at least one telephone per
household on the year 2016 (see Fig. 3.2).
Table 2.4 Occupation of population in various activities for the year 1990 in Former
State of Republic. This Table shows historical data of the Former State
of Republic, which had to do with the occupation of the population in
various activities and data concerning the economic development of the
Former State of Republic (GDP) per Zone exchange area. Then the
number of business subscribers is calculated for each Zone exchange area,
based on the fact that an average growth rate of 2,5% for the GDP is
expected for the period of forecasting.
Table 2.5 Subscriber demand forecasting per Terminal area. Based on the above
parameters, the total subscriber demand is calculated (see Fig. 3.3)
All the information of the above Tables will form the basis for the forecasting of
traffic and ISDN demand in the Republic.
POPULATION
1.800.000
1.600.000
1.400.000
REGION I
REGION II
1.200.000
REGION III
REGION IV
1.000.000
REGION V
REGION VI
800.000
REGION VII
REGION VIII
600.000
REGION IX
COUNTRY
400.000
200.000
0
1996
2001
2006
2011
Figure 3.1
Evolution of Population
119
2016
HOUSEHOLDS
500.000
450.000
400.000
REGION I
350.000
REGION II
REGION III
300.000
REGION IV
REGION V
250.000
REGION VI
200.000
REGION VII
150.000
REGION IX
REGION VIII
COUNTRY
100.000
50.000
0
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
Figure 3.2
Evolution of Households
TELEPHONE DEMAND
1.000.000
900.000
800.000
REGION I
REGION II
700.000
REGION III
600.000
REGION IV
REGION V
500.000
REGION VI
REGION VII
400.000
REGION VIII
300.000
REGION IX
COUNTRY
200.000
100.000
0
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
Figure 3.3
Evolution of Telephone Demand
120
The demand forecasts at the national and regional level have been based on the
estimate of households and the penetration of telephones based on estimated settled
population for residential subscribers (with special care in the region VII and zones
I.11 and I.12). The forecast indicates that by the year 2016 the demand will be
887.402 direct exchange lines with a penetration of 58.06%. To meet this demand the
network would have to grow from the present 239.253 lines. This represents an annual
average growth rate of about 12% over a 20 year period reaching saturation about
2011. This fast growth requires very special efforts and substantial financing in the
earlier stages of the plan when the basic infrastructures are laid down.
3.2 RESULTS from TRAFFIC FORECASTING

Traffic forecasting follows the subscriber demand forecasting, which is of major
importance to all telecommunications organizations in order to dimension their
network in time, according to their needs.
The par. 2.3 titled Methodology of traffic forecasting deals with all these aspects for
the telecommunication organization of the Republic. The methodology followed is
one that has been adopted by ITU-T in similar studies. The study refers to the years
1996 up to 2016.
Initially, reference is made to all historical data as well as to the necessary traffic
measurements that have been taken into account in this study, an analysis of the
international methodology of ITU-T (applied in similar studies) and the final results
are presented.
The data, which have been taken into account, come from official statistical data of
the Former State of the Republic, from recent traffic measurements in a limited
number of exchanges, from PTT of the Republic, and from data of similar network
studies from other countries. Because of the special conditions in the Republic,
there was a great difficulty in making assumptions and approximations (see par. 2.3).
Data presented are related to subscriber behaviour (originating and terminating
subscriber traffic), to originating and terminating traffic in each terminal area, to the
existing network status, to the interest coefficient matrix among various Region
exchanges, to point-to-point traffic between these exchanges, to point-to-point circuit
dimensioning concerning these exchanges, and to international communications with
other countries. These data are the basis on which the dimensioning of the network of
the Republic will be built. The Tables 2.6 to 2.18 show the forecast parameters of
Traffic forecasting for Republic as follows:
Table 2.6
Table 2.7
Originating and terminating traffic per subscriber. The results of

measurements and historical data from other countries have been used for
the calculation of originating and terminating traffic per subscriber for
each Terminal exchange area.
Originating and terminating traffic. By multiplying the calling rates of
Table 2.6 with the number of forecasted subscribers the originating and
terminating traffic for each Terminal exchange area and for the years
1996 to 2016 is calculated.
121
Table 2.8
Table 2.9
Table 2.10
Table 2.11
Tables 2.12
to 2.16
Table 2.17
Table 2.18
Traffic distribution. Traffic originating from Terminal exchanges is

distributed to into terminating or local, long distance national and
international one.
Internal and Local traffic in each Region. Based on the previous
distribution of traffic and on the originating and terminating traffic
forecasted for each Region in Table 2.7, the Internal and Local traffic in
each Region is forecasted for the period 1996 to 2016.
Forecasting of outgoing and incoming traffic of each Region. By
applying the percentages of Traffic distribution of Table 2.8 on the
subscriber traffic of Table 2.7 we obtain the forecasts of outgoing and
incoming traffic of each Region as well as the outgoing and incoming
international traffic for the period 1996 to 2016.
Interest matrix. The inter-regional traffic matrix was formed based on the
number of subscribers, long-distance traffic, relative distances, and
economic and administrative interests.
Traffic matrices for the years 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016. Based on
the Interest matrix and applying the Kruithofs algorithm, the interregional traffic matrices for the years 1996 to 2016 result.
Correlation between number of subscribers and outgoing international
traffic. By applying the ITU-T methodology the paid minutes per day are
identified.
Distribution of total international traffic to/from Republic. Based on the
average international traffic percentage of 4,5% (Table 2.8) we obtain the
total international traffic, which is distributed to/from various countries
according to traffic measurements. Then this traffic is extrapolated up to
the year 2016 according to the forecasted number of subscribers.
3.3 RESULTS from ISDN DEMAND FORECASTING

At present, PTT Republic offers only telephone, telex and telegraph services. ISDN
is a recently applied concept providing new telecommunication services and ValueAdded services.
As a first step, the influence of key factors, such as tariff level, availability of service
and digitalisation rate, on the introduction and diffusion of ISDN are examined in a
Country presenting similarities with the Republic.
The existing ITU-T methodology is not applicable in a country exiting a war.
Additionally, the forecasting of ISDN, contrary to PSTN, cannot be based on data of
an already existing service, since it is newly introduced in the network. Beyond this
difficulty, the introduction of ISDN is, in a considerable level, realised not by making
new connections but by converting PSTN lines into ISDN ones. Following these, a
new approach of ISDN BRA and PRA demand forecasting, not included in ITU-T
methodology, is developed in the present thesis.
The experience in the Country and relevant data from other countries indicate that
an S-curve similar to the one of par. 1.2.1.1.1 applies also for the ISDN demand, at
least for the two first parts, i.e. the exponential and the linear ones. The exponential
part describes the first period of fast development due to the business demand. The
122
second (linear) part is characterised by the fact that ISDN service becomes an
important good for residential use. As for the third part, it may show a saturation of
demand if it is proved that it can be described by a Gompertz curve.
BRA ISDN DEMAND
PRA ISDN DEMAND
250000
14000
PRA
BRA
12000
200000
10000
150000
8000
6000
100000
4000
50000
2000
0
0
1996
2001
2006
2011
1996
2016
2001
2006
2011
2016
Figure 3.4
Evolution of ISDN BRA and PRA Demand
The adoption of the exponential and the linear curves for the Republic leads to the
forecasting of ISDN BRA and PRA connections in the Republic. These are given in
Table 2.21, which shows a BRA penetration of 14,78% for 2001 (see Fig. 3.4).
Thereafter, the BRA and PRA demand are distributed to the Regions (see Tables 2.22
and 2.23) and some engineering points are considered.
3.4 CONCLUSIONS on the INFLUENCE of REFUGEES

3.4.1 The Influence of Refugees on Subscriber Demand
The theoretical model which describes the influence of refugees on the telephone
demand has been was presented in par. 2.5. The subscriber and traffic demand
forecasting carried out in chapter 2 was based on the assumption that all refugees stay,
since there was no distinction between local population and refugees.
In the second case (see fig. 2.6), where all refugees leave at year 1, there is an abrupt
change in the number of refugees NR, which are present in the Region. This results in
an abrupt change of the total population N and a kink in the number of connected
telephones NT. Consequently, there will be a surplus offer of connections compared
to the demand for a period, after which the demand recovers. The recovery period is
about 3 years. Thereafter, NT behaves as in the previous case in which all refugees
stay.
123
In the third case of smooth departure of refugees with an exponential rate, the
number of installed telephones NT also shows a saturation curve, which is
considerably lower than the one of the first case. In general, the departure of the
population from the original settlement place tends to accelerate the convergence of
demand and supply. In some cases of very large refugee population, and fairly high
departure rate, the demand quickly drops below NT.
3.4.1.1 The All stay case

In Fig. 3.5, corresponding to all stay case, only the total population is influencing
the telephone demand. Demand is met rather slowly compared to the other cases,
because no refugees are leaving, i.e. actually increasing with the population and
economic growth. The Total Demand and the NT practically coincide after a 10-year
period, which is an indication of saturation.
Fig. 3.5
Time evolution of population, total demand and telephones (All stay case)
3.4.1.2 The All leave case

Fig. 3.6 represents the all leave case. The determining parameters are the initial
refugee population and the time of departure. A kink in the installed telephones NT
evolution curve appears, since all telephone needs are covered and demand is
negative with the refugee departure. The comparison between the curves for leave
1-year after and 5-years after shows that negative (i.e. the installed lines are more
than the needed ones) demand is higher and lasts more if the departure time is
delayed (when more phones will have been installed as these phones will not be
124
needed with the refugee departure). The demand will be even more negative for
higher initial refugee percentage. Again, the total demand and the N T practically
coincide after a 10-year period, which is an indication of saturation.
Fig. 3.6
Time evolution of population, total demand and telephones
(All leave case)
3.4.1.3 The Exponential case

Figures 3.7 and 3.8, correspond to an exponential departure of refugees case and
describe the evolution of total demand and installed telephones, depending on the
determining parameters, which are the initial refugee population and the rate of
refugee departure a.
In Fig. 3.7 the influence of the initial number of refugees is described. Except for very
low initial population (10%) of refugees, demand is met quickly. For very large
refugee population (NRN) we quickly have a negative demand due to population
departing. In this figure we assume a=0,5, which means that in 2-years time only one
third of the initial refugee population has remained in the initial settlement location.
125
Fig. 3.7
Time evolution of population and telephones
(Exponential departure of refugees case influence of initial NR)
For the exponential departure of refugees case of Fig. 3.8 we assume again that
NR=30%. This figure shows the influence of the (assumed exponential) refugee
departure rate, which at the 30% refugee initial population is not pronounced.
Obviously, the larger parameter a means a slower departure and hence a slower
convergence of demand and supply. At 30% initial refugee population the ratio of
installed telephones NT to the total demand D remains practically constant for the
various values of a, which means that it is not too strongly dependent on a,
although the final demand and supply are.
The apparent bottleneck in Fig. 3.8 (i.e. the strange behaviour that the installed and
total demand curves, which were converging, temporarily diverge) around 15 years is
caused by our model assumption that the demand per inhabitant changes (increases)
discontinuously every five years.
126
Fig. 3.8
Time evolution of total demand and supplied telephones case
(Exponential departure of refugees influence of a)
3.4.1.4 Comparison of all stay, all leave and exponential cases

Fig. 3.9 shows a comparison of the predictions for the three cases, with the
assumption of an initial refugee population of 30% and a = 0,5 in the exponential
case. In the all stay case, supply catches up with demand slowly. In the all leave
case, with a departure in one year, demand becomes negative, while in the exponential case, demand and supply converge much quicker than in the all stay case.
Under the above assumptions, the resulting total demand and installed telephones for
the last two cases (all leave and exponential departure rate) have a lag compared
to the all stay case of the order of 20-25%. Fig 1.5, 3.6 and 3.9 show that, in the
long-term, these two cases do not have significant difference. This difference is
considerable only for the period immediately after the departure in the all leave case
and for the time period 2a in the exponential rate case. These two cases present a
considerable deviation from the all stay case concerning the total demand D and the
installed telephones NT. In all three cases, there is a saturation of the demand after
about 12 years.
127
Fig. 3.9 Comparison of the three cases

The two extreme cases, that all refugees stay or all refugees leave their initial
settlement location, are rather theoretical ones since refugees either try to adapt
themselves in a new environment or seek better conditions by emigrating inside or
outside the country according to various social factors (e.g. profession). Beyond these,
a state that exits a war will not be able to orderly relocate the refugee population and
prepare their new settlements in a short period. The exponential case seems to be
closer to the reality, since takes into consideration the above mentioned factors, but
still the fact that a constant intensity of departure is inherent in this scenario may lead
to deviations from reality. Another inherent deviation from reality is the fact that the
exponential case foresees that the refugees start leaving their original settlement
location from the first day.
3.4.1.5 Combined all stay and Pareto case

In this light, another case is also investigated, i.e. the case of a Pareto distribution (39)
for the departure rate. That is, during an initial (settlement) period tp (typically 1 year,
but longer period is also investigated) we assume an all stay case. Beyond this
point, the rate of refugee departure is given by the Pareto distribution in which the rate
of departure is not constant but variable, i.e. the variance is not equal to 0. The Pareto
distribution density function without upper limit is:
(t) = b*kb*(t/tp) (1+b)
128
The parameter b takes values between 1 and 2. In the case of an upper limit existence,
the parameter k is:
g/tp
k=
((g/tp)b-1)1/b
where g is the upper limit of t, that is g = 20 years in our case. Then the Pareto
distribution density function takes the following form:
b*(g/tp)b*(t/tp) (1+b)
(t) =
(g/tp)b -1
The Pareto distribution density function, for times larger than 1 year, is shown in Fig
3.10. In this figure we can see that bkb represents the initial value of the distribution
and -(1+b) defines the speed of decay. In general, the Pareto distribution density
function is less steep than the corresponding exponential one.
(t)
bkb
t
tp
Fig. 3.10
The case of Pareto rate of refugees departure
Fig. 3.11 depicts the evolution of refugee population NR in the forecasting period. The
curves present two distinct areas, a linear one and a Pareto one. The linear part
corresponds to the all stay case.
Two parameters influence the evolution of refugee population NR in this combined
case. The first is the initial period tp and the second is the parameter b. For the
parameter tp values of 1 year and 5 years have been selected as initial period. For the
parameter b the values 1, 1,5 and 2 have been selected to investigate its influence.
After about a 10 year period (independently of the initial 1 or 5 year period), the
parameter b does not influence considerably the evolution of refugee population NR.
In this figure, becomes obvious that the initial period influences the evolution of
refugee population NR much more significantly than the parameter b.
129
Fig. 3.11
Evolution of refugee population NR (Combined all stay and Pareto case)
Fig. 3.12 depicts the evolution of total population N in the forecasting period. The
curves present two distinct areas, a linear one and a Pareto one. The linear part
corresponds to the all stay case.
Again, two parameters influence the evolution of total population N in this combined
parameter b the values 1, 1,5 and 2 have been selected to investigate its influence. The
conclusions concerning the evolution of N are similar to those for the refugee
population NR.
130
Fig. 3.12
Evolution of total population N (Combined all stay and Pareto case)
Fig. 3.13 depicts the evolution of installed telephones NT in the forecasting period.
The curves present two distinct areas, one corresponding to the all stay case and
one corresponding to the Pareto.
Again, two parameters influence the evolution of total population N in this combined
parameter b the values 1, 1,5 and 2 have been selected to investigate its influence. The
conclusions concerning the evolution of NT are similar to those for the refugee
population NR.
131
Fig. 3.13
Evolution of installed telephones NT (Combined all stay and Pareto case)
Fig. 3.14 depicts the evolution of demand D in the forecasting period. The curves
present two distinct areas, a linear one and a Pareto one. The linear part coincides with
the corresponding initial linear part of demand D in Fig.3.5 of the all stay case.
Two parameters influence the evolution of demand in this combined case. The first is
the initial period tp and the second is the parameter b. For the parameter tp values of 1
year and 5 years have been selected as initial period. For the parameter b the values 1,
1,5 and 2 have been selected to investigate its influence. After a 10 year period
(independently of the initial 1 or 5 year period), the parameter b does not influence
considerably the evolution of demand D. In this figure, becomes obvious that the
initial period influences the evolution of demand much more significantly than the
parameter b. The resulting demand D after 20 years with tp=5years is about 15%
lower than that with tp=1year. This is in accordance with the above mathematical
description of Pareto distribution density function and describes the fact that in the 5
year period refugees created a significant demand that is afterwards abandoned.
132
Fig. 3.14
Evolution of demand D (Combined all stay and Pareto case)
Figures 3.15 and 3.16 show a comparison between the three different cases of all
stay, exponential and combined all stay and Pareto. In fig 3.15 we assumed as
tp=1 year, while in fig 3.16 we assumed as tp=5 years.
The effect of tp becomes obvious in fig 3.16 (tp=5 years), where the total population,
the number of refugees NR and the demand D get lower values of the corresponding
values for the exponential model (a=1). This is not taking place in Fig. 3.16, where
tp=1 year. This is due to the fact that in Pareto case the departure rate is less than that
of the exponential case, is not approaching zero and is not constant as in the
exponential case. As a result the total number of departing refugees is higher than that
for the exponential case.
133
Fig. 3.15
Comparison of all stay, exponential and Combined (1 year) cases
Fig. 3.16
Comparison of all stay, exponential and Combined (5 years) cases
134
3.4.2 The Influence of Refugees on Traffic Demand

The traffic per subscriber (calling rate) in the busy hour is the key-factor (see par.
2.3.3) on which the traffic forecasting is based. The total originating traffic for a
whole area, as well as the originating traffic for each exchange is estimated with
current statistics, using subscribers density and calling rates.
In case of lack of data, the subscribers are classified according to the various calling
rates. Examples of such classes (12ab) are given below, with the corresponding
normal range of values of total traffic per line for each class:
-
Residential
Business
PBX (groups per line)
Coin boxes
0.020-0.110
0.100-0.170
0.200-0.350
0.100-0.300
erl
erl
erl
erl
In the case of the Republic, we used as average originating or terminating traffic per
subscriber values ranging from 0,017Erl/sub for rural areas to 0,030Erl/sub for urban
areas, and of course we took in consideration the dilution effect.
Then, based on the forecasted number of subscribers of each terminal exchange, we
calculated the originating and terminating traffic of each exchange by multiplying the
average originating or terminating traffic per subscriber with the number of
subscribers of each terminal exchange. Finally, we distributed this traffic into
terminating or internal, long-distance and international ones. The whole procedure
indicates that the traffic is analogous to the number of subscribers and, consequently,
the refugee mobility influences the forecasted traffic in a direct way.
3.4.3 The Influence of Refugees on ISDN and New Services

ISDN permits the connection of PCs, X.25 terminals, fax group 3 or 4, analogue
telephones, digital ISDN videotelephone, ISDN data terminal, ISDN PABXs, host
computers, LANs, VPNs, etc. with the telecommunication network. The evolution of
the ISDN network and the application of teleservices and supplementary services will
mainly follow the implementation of a switching plan. The provision of ISDN-BRA is
addressed mainly to the residential subscribers, while the provision of ISDN-PRA is
addressed mainly to the business subscribers. The refugees belong to the residential
category and, consequently, their mobility affects the ISDN-BRA service. The BRA
penetration of table 2.21 is therefore according to the demand (D) of the selected
model.
As it is mentioned in par 2.4.3, for ISDN traffic forecast in the Republic, the PSTN
traffic estimated in par 2.3.3 will be expected. This is due to the fact that ISDN
subscribers result from PSTN subscriber conversion. The only additional type of
traffic results from the fact that ISDN subscribers use this service in order to be
connected to the Internet. Therefore, appropriate consideration must be given in the
switching and routing plans.
135
The provision of new telecommunication services, such as Value-Added services,

packet switched, frame relay, ATM, clear channel, etc. is addressed mainly to the
business subscribers. Therefore, the needs are not directly influenced by the mobility
of refugees, but they are influenced indirectly by the consequences of the refugee
mobility on the countrys economy.
3.4.4 The Influence of Refugees on Exchange Performance

The number of subscribers and therefore, the number of refugees present in an area,
influence directly not only the dimensioning of a telecommunication network, but also
the telecommunication equipment itself. A typical example is the call processing
capacity of digital exchanges. The ITU-T Recommendation Q.543 (40), dealing with
digital exchange performance objectives, describes the call processing behaviour of a
digital exchange. The total load YT of a digital exchange is constituted of an idle
portion (corresponding to basic operations independent of call attempts carried) plus a
second portion YCP, which depends on the call attempts offered in the exchange. Thus,
both YT and YCP are linear functions of the call attempts.
As the offered load increases beyond the engineered attempt capacity of the exchange,
the throughput capacity may show a behaviour presented by the curve A in the Fig.
3.17. If appropriate overload protection mechanisms (e.g. call gapping) are used, then
the throughput performance of the exchange should resemble the curve C of Fig. 3.17.
Fig. 3.17
Throughput performance according to ITU-T Recommendation Q.543
Appropriate measurements have been taken in an exchange of the Country
confirming fully the mentioned recommendation of ITU-T. Table 3.1 gives the
measurements of the total load YT and of call processing load YCP .
136
Table 3.1
Throughput performance of a digital exchange
BHCA
(x103)
0
3,4
29,9
44,0
59,9
79,8
89,9
118,4
138,7
165,6
179,7
200,0
220,3
239,7
247,7
257,8
269,6
YCall Processing
(mErl)
0
10,3
90,2
132,7
180,4
239,1
267,7
350,5
408,7
485,6
525,0
582,9
639,0
693,3
714,9
743,5
777,1
YTotal
(mErl)
216,5
247,9
306,7
363,1
394,1
460,0
467,9
547,1
603,2
669,6
690,3
754,4
796,5
831,5
866,5
889,7
904,5
The measurements are also shown in Fig. 3.18. In this figure we can see that the
behaviour of the exchange is coinciding with that described in Rec. Q. 543, which
states the digital exchange performance design objectives. Both curves for YT and YCP
have a linear part up to the region in which the exchange enters in the operation of
overload controls. The linear parts can be fitted by a least square fit with the
equations:
YT(mErl) = 245 + 2,47X(BHCA)
YCP(mErl) = 7 + 2,86X(BHCA)
137
CALL PROSSECING & TOTAL EXCHANGE CP LOAD

1000
900
800
700
mErl
600
YCP
Y TOTAL
500
400
300
200
100
270
258
248
240
220
200
180
166
139
118
89,9
79,8
59,9
44
29,9
3,4
0
103 BHC
Fig. 3.18
Measurement of call processing and total exchange Central Processor load
3.5 CONCLUSIONS
The main contribution of the present thesis can be summarized in the following three
domains:
a) We give the subscriber and traffic demand forecasting, applying a
methodology that complements the ITU-T forecasting rules, for countries
exiting from war. These countries have the special characteristics, which have
been taken into account:
1. There are no historical data.
2. There are no administrative or telecommunications data for the new
status after the war.
3. The network is partially destroyed.
4. There is redistribution of population expressed mainly by the presence
and mobility of refugees.
b) The proposed by Recommendation E.508 of ITU-T forecasting procedure
cannot be applied, as it is explained in par. 2.4. Therefore, we propose a new
method for the prediction of the ISDN subscribers, based upon the
comparative study with another country. The proposed method overcomes the
difficulty that we have to make the forecasting before the deployment of the
service, i.e. having null initial data because the service is not introduced. In
this case, the ISDN subscribers result from the PSTN ones. Moreover, the
Key-factors influencing the spread of the ISDN are examined. Such factors
are:
138
1. The tariff level.

2. The service availability.
3. The digitalisation rate.
c) Special care is given in the study of refugee mobility. Mathematical models
have been introduced examining the influence of refugees on the demand and
the number of installed telephones. These models are:
1.
2.
3.
4.
The all stay case.

The all leave case.
The exponential departure rate case.
The combined all stay and Pareto departure rate case.
The first case is the upper limit solution, while the second one represents the
lower limit solution of the problem of refugee mobility influence. The third is
an intermediate case presenting certain inherent deviations from the reality
(see par 3.4.1.4).
An attempt to overcome these deviations is the fourth model in which for the
first period we apply the all stay model and then a Pareto departure rate is
applied. In the absence of actual data, it is not easy to decide in favour of one
or the other model, however, using the two extreme cases (all stay and all
leave) as limits one may expect an intermediate behaviour, such as the
exponential or the combined all stay and Pareto. Such intermediate
behaviour can be seen to converge, independently of the model chosen, after
an interval of about 10 years, for almost all reasonable models (i.e. excluding
the combined all stay and Pareto with tp=5years). For shorter times the
refugee evolution should be monitored more closely in order to optimise return
on investment from new equipment installation.
139
REFERENCES
The basic bibliography, which has been used for the present study, is the following:
1.
2.
a
b
c
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
a
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
i
j
k
l
m
n
11.
12.
a
b
c
d
e
Bear D., Principles of telecommunications traffic engineering, P.

Peregrinus Ltd, 1976.
Boucher J.R., Voice teletraffic systems engineering, Artech House,
1988.
7.3, page 102
7.3.1, page 102
7.3.2, page 110
Engval L., Forecasting demand in developing countries,
Communications International, Sept. 1989.
Engval L., Subscriber Forecasting - detailed forecasting methods, ITU,
Athens 1985.
Engval L., Subscriber Forecasting - general considerations, ITU,
Athens 1985.
Engval L., Subscriber forecasting, ITU, Sofia, 1986.
France Telecom, Institut National des Telecommunications,
Planification des reseaux, Les Epinettes, 1981
Hamdane A. et Mahoukou M. L. Principes de gestion de trafic et
d'organisation d'un service de trafic, UIT, Geneve, 1990.
ITU & Webster University, Telecommunications and Economic
growth, Geneva, 1999.
ITU, General Network Planning, Geneva, 1983
Ch. II, 2.1, page 9
Ch. VIII, 1.1, page 175
Ch. IX, 2.1, page 210
Ch. IX, 2.1.2, page 210
Ch. IX, 2.1.3, page 212
Ch. IX, 2.1.4, page 212
Ch. IX, 2.2, page 213
Ch. IX, 2.4.2, page 217
Ch. IX, 2.5, page 218
Ch. IX, 2.5.2, page 216-219
Ch. IX, 3.2.2, page 223
Ch. IX, 5.3, page 230
Ch. IX, 5.4, page 231
Ch. VI, 6.5.6.4, page 224
ITU, Handbook on Case Studies on the Progressive Introduction of
ISDN in a National Network, Geneva, 1992.
ITU, Planning Data and Forecasting Methods GAS 10 Handbook,
vol. 1 and 2, Geneva, 1987.
Vol. 1, Ch. II, 2.1, page 7
Vol. 1, Ch. III, 3.5, page 30
Vol. 1, Ch. VI, 6.4.3, page 207
Vol. 1, Ch. VI, 6.4.3.1, page 208
Vol. 1, Ch. VI, 6.4.3.2, page 208
140
f
g
h
i
j
k
l
m
n
o
p
q
r
s
t
u
v
w
x
y
z
aa
ab
ac
ad
ae
Vol. 1, Ch. VI, 6.4.3.3, page 209

Vol. 1, Ch. IV, 4.1.1, page 39
Vol. 1, Ch. IV, 4.1.1, page 39
Vol. 1, Ch. IV, 4.3.10, page 137
Vol. 1, Ch. IV, 4.3.10.1, page 137
Vol. 1, Ch. VI, 6.4.5.2, page 212
Vol. 1, Ch. VI, 6.4.5.2, page 215
Vol. 1, Ch. VI, 6.4.1.1, page 204
Vol. 1, Ch. VI, 6.4.1.2, page 204
Vol. 1, Ch. VI, 6.4.1.3, page 204
Vol. 1, Ch. VI, 6.4.1.4, page 204
Vol. 1, Ch. VI, 6.4.1.5, page 205
Vol. 1, Ch. VI, 6.4.1.6, page 205
Vol. 1, Ch. VI, 6.4.1.8, page 205
Vol. 1, Ch. VI, 6.4.1.9, page 206
Vol. 1, Ch. VI, 6.4.2, page 207
Vol. 1, Ch. V, 5.2.4, page 173
Vol. 2, Ch. IV, 6.1, page 132
Vol. 2, Ch. IV, 6.2, page 133
Vol. 2, Ch. IV, 6.3, page 133
Vol. 2, Ch. IV, 6.4, page 134
Vol. 1, Ch. VII, 7.3.3, page 266
Vol. 1, Ch. VII, 7.2.3.4, page 257
Vol. 1, Ch. IV, 4.2.1.2, page 46
Vol. 1, Ch. VII, 7.1.2.1, page 241
Vol. 1, Ch. V, 5.1, page 165
ITU, Workshop Type Seminar on Network Planning, in multiexchange, Rural, and Trunk Network (I), Athens, 1985.
ITU, Workshop Type Seminar on Network Planning, in multiexchange, Rural, and Trunk Network (II), Sofia, 1986.
ITU, World Telecommunication Development Report, Universal
Access, World Telecommunication Indicators, Geneva, 1998.
ITU, World Telecommunication Indicators Database, Geneva, 1999.
ITU, Year book of statistics, Telecommunication Services 1988-1997,
Geneva, 1999.
ITU, Recommendations E.5xx and E.7xx series, Geneva, 1998.
a
b
c
d
e
f
g
Rec. E.507
Rec. E.500
Rec. E.502, fig 4/E.502
Rec. E.506
Rec. E.501
Rec. E.523
Rec. E.508
Lejon H., Basic Teletraffic Theory-Fundamental concepts, ITU,
Athens 1984.
Lejon H., Basic Teletraffic Theory-General Description of Traffic,
ITU, Athens 1984.
Lejon H., Basic Teletraffic Theory-Introduction, ITU, Athens 1984.
Matthew D., (Practical) Traffic Forecasting, ITU, Athens 1984,
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
141
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
a
b
35.
36
37
38
39
40
41
6.2.2, p. 29.
Matthew D., An Introduction to Forecasting Telecommunication
Requirements, ITU, Athens 1984.
Matthew D., Forecasting Methods, ITU, Athens 1984.
Matthew D., Traffic Forecasting Projection Models, ITU, Athens
1984.
Morley P. and Meijer J.W., Networking the future-the art of
deconstructing Networks, FITCE FORUM, issue 3, July-September
1999.
NTT International Corporation, A long term plan study on
telecommunications development in the Hellenic Republic, Athens,
1992.
OTE, Monthly Statistic Bulletin, Jan. 1998- October 1999
OTE, Republica Srpska Telecommunications Development Master
Plan, Athens 1996.
OTE-Consulting, Business Plan-Development and provision of
Packets-Solutions of applications with ISDN-Internet and ISDNTerminal Equipment, Athens, 1998.
Papamargaritis K., "Traffic engineering in digital exchanges", ITUUNDP, PANAFTEL PROJECT, 1992.
PTT BOSNE I HERZEGOVINE, SREDNJOROCNI PLAN RAZVOJA
91-95
Siemens, Telephone traffic theory, tables and charts, 1981.
Spiegel M.R., Statistics, Schaum's Outline Series, 1961.
Ch. 14, page 244
Ch. 14, page 243
ZAJEDNICA JUGOSLOVENSKIH PTT, GENERALNI PLAN
TELEFONSKE MREZE
ITU, Economic studies at the national level in the field of
telecommunications GAS 5 Handbook, vol. 1 and 2, Geneva, 1968.
ITU-T Recommendation E.502, Yellow Book, Volume II.3, par. 4.5,
Geneva 1981
Intracom, xDSL Technologies, Athens, 2001
D. Athanasopoulos, Probability Theory, Part II, par. 3.15, Peiraeous,
1990 (in Greek).
ITU-T Recommandation Q.543, Digital Exchange Performance Design
Objective, par. 3.2 to3.4, Geneva 1993
Acceptance Test Report for Athens Toll Exchange B, (EWSD,
Contract 7170), OTE, Athens, 1989 (in Greek).
142

The Adaptation of Itu-T Forecasting Rules To The Countries Under Special Circumstances

Diunggah oleh

Informasi Dokumen

Judul Asli

Hak Cipta

Format Tersedia

Bagikan dokumen Ini

Bagikan atau Tanam Dokumen

Opsi Berbagi

Apakah menurut Anda dokumen ini bermanfaat?

Apakah konten ini tidak pantas?

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

The Adaptation of Itu-T Forecasting Rules To The Countries Under Special Circumstances

Diunggah oleh

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

Accession number:

The Library of the Faculty of Technical

Accepted by the Scientific Board on:

In this thesis the ITU-T methodology of

Prof. Dr Vladimir Kovaevi

UNIVERSITY OF NOVI SAD

THE ADAPTATION OF ITU-T FORECASTING RULES

Purpose of the Present Forecasting

DESCRIPTION of FORECASTING METHODS

Basic Concepts of Forecasting

Networks Development versus Time

Rapid Growth Phase

Economic Factors Influencing Telephone Density

Separation of Demand in Business and Residential

Time Series Models

Analysis of Historical Data

Analysis of Future Trends

Subscriber Demand Forecasting

Theoretical Analysis of Traffic Forecasting

Exchange Traffic Forecasting

Analysis of Initial Data

Evolution of Calling Rates

Aggregation of Calling Rates on the Parent Exchanges

Inter-Exchange Traffic Matrices

Analysis of Initial Data

Setting-up of the Initial Point-to-point Traffic Matrix

Elementary Traffic Variables

International Traffic Forecast

Considerations of Traffic Models

Estimation of Traffic Offered

24-hour Traffic Profiles

Overcoming Lack of Usable Data

SUBSCRIBER DEMAND, TRAFFIC AND ISDN

METHODOLOGY of SUBSCRIBER DEMAND

Examination of Historical Data

Identification of Saturation Level

Residential Subscriber Forecasting

Population Estimation per Terminal Exchange Area

Estimation of the Number of Households

Estimation of Residential Subscribers

Business Subscriber Forecasting

Estimation of Business Subscriber Growth Rate

Estimation of Business Subscribers

Total Subscriber Forecasting

METHODOLOGY of TRAFFIC FORECASTING

List of Existing Local Exchanges

Historical Traffic Data

Technique of Traffic Forecasting

Originating/terminating Traffic per Subscriber

Forecasting of Subscriber Traffic per Terminal Exchange

Estimation of Traffic Distribution

Forecasting of Internal and Local Traffic

Forecasting of Long-distance Traffic

Forecasting of International Traffic

Growth of International Traffic

Technique of International Traffic Forecasting

International Traffic with Specific Countries

METHODOLOGY of ISDN FORECASTING

ISDN Demand Forecast

ISDN Traffic forecast

ISDN Switching Plan

THE INFLUENCE of REFUGEES

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS