SOLVED ASSIGNMENT
2010
Amity University
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bulk and gives a clear picture of their structure. If you want to know any
specific characteristics, of the given data or if frequency distribution of
one set of data to be compared with another, then it is necessary that the
frequency distribution itself must be summarized and condensed in such a
manner that it must help us to make useful inferences about the data and
also provide yardstick for comparing different sets of data.
Measures of Dispersion: Measures of dispersion would tell you the
number of values, which are substantially different from the mean,
median or mode. The commonly used measures of dispersion are range,
mean deviation and standard deviation.
Correlation: Correlation coefficient measures the degree to which the
change in one variable (the dependent variable) is associated with change
in the other variable (Independent one). For example, as a marketing
manager, you would like to know if there is any relation between the
amounts of money you spend on advertising and the sales you achieve.
Here, sales are the dependent variable and advertising budget is the
independent variable. Correlation coefficient, in this case, would tell you
the extent of relationship between these two variables, whether the
relationship is directly proportional (i.e. increase or decrease in
advertising is associated with increase or decrease in sales) or it is an
inverse relationship (i.e. increasing advertising is associated with
decrease in sales and vice-versa) or there is no relationship between the
two variables.
Regression Analysis: Regression analysis includes any techniques for
modeling and analyzing several variables, when the focus is on the
relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent
variables. Using this technique you can predict the dependent variables on
the basis of the independent variables. In 1970, NCAER (National Council
of Applied and Economic Research) predicted the annual stock of scooters
using a regression model in which real personal disposable income and
relative weighted price index of scooters were used as independent
variable.
Time Series Analysis: With time series analysis, you can isolate and
measure the separate effects of these forces on the variables. Examples
of these changes can be seen, if you start measuring increase in cost of
living, increase of population over a period of time, growth of agricultural
food production in India over the last fifteen years, seasonal requirement
of items, impact of floods, strikes, and wars so on.
Index Numbers: An index number is an economic data figure reflecting
price or quantity compared with a standard or base value. The base
usually equals 100 and the index number is usually expressed as 100
times the ratio to the base value. For example, if a commodity costs twice
as much in 1970 as it did in 1960, its index number would be 200 relative
to 1960. Index numbers are used especially to compare business activity,
the cost of living, and employment. They enable economists to reduce
unwieldy business data into easily understood terms.
Sampling and Statistical Inference: In many cases due to shortage of
time, cost or non availability of data, only limited part or section of the
universe (or population) is examined to (a) get information about the
universe as clearly and precisely as possible, and (b) determine the
reliability of the estimates. This small part or section selected from the
universe is called the sample, and the process of selections such a section
(or past) is called sampling.
Example: Site selection process (quantitative and qualitative
factors)
While quantitative factors have been and will continue to be very
important in the site selection process, qualitative factors are also critical
in order to ensure that the company makes the best decision. What are
the most important quantitative and qualitative factors evaluated by site
selection advisors and companies when making a decision regarding the
location of a new or expanded operation? The list will vary depending on
type of facility (i.e. manufacturing, logistics, research & technology,
office), but most factors apply to all forms of projects. Below is a
summary of the most important quantitative and qualitative factors
considered by companies.
Quantitative Factors
1. Property Tax Rates
2. Corporate Income Tax Rates
3. Sales Tax Rates
4. Real Estate Costs
5. Utility Rates
6. Average Wage/Salary Levels
7. Construction Costs
8. Workers Compensation Rates
9. Unemployment Compensation Rates
10. Personal Income Tax Rates
11. Industry Sector Labor Pool Size
12. Infrastructure Development Costs
13. Education Achievement Levels
14. Crime Statistics
15. Frequency of Natural Disasters
16. Cost of Living Index
17. Number of Commercial Flights to Key Markets
18. Proximity to Major Key Geographic Markets
19. Unionization Rate/Right to Work versus Non-Right to Work State
20. Population of Geographic Area
Qualitative Factors
1. Level of Collaboration with Government, Educational and Utility Officials
2. Sports, Recreational and Cultural Amenities
3. Confidence in Ability of All Parties to Meet Companys Deadlines
4. Political Stability of Location
5. Climate
6. Availability of Quality Healthcare
7. Chemistry of Project Team with Local and State Officials
8. Perception of Quality of Professional Services Firms to Meet the
Companys Needs
9. Predictability of Long-term Operational Costs
10. Ability to Complete Real Estate Due Diligence Process Quickly
Another important part of the site selection evaluation process relates to
the weighting of the key quantitative and qualitative factors. Depending
on the type of project, factors will be weighted differently. As an example,
for a new manufacturing facility project, issues such as utility rates, real
estate costs, property tax rates, collaboration with governmental entities,
and average hourly wage rates may be weighted more heavily. By
contract, for a new office facility factors such as real estate costs, number
of commercial flights, crime statistics, climate and industry sector labor
pool size may be more important.
Every project is unique and must be evaluated based upon its own
individual set of circumstances.
A sample is generally selected for study because the population is too large
to study in its entirety. The sample should be representative of the general
population. This is often best achieved by random sampling. Also, before
collecting the sample, it is important that one carefully and completely
defines the population, including a description of the members to be
included.
A common problem in business statistical decision-making arises when we
need information about a collection called a population but find that the cost
of obtaining the information is prohibitive. For instance, suppose we need to
know the average shelf life of current inventory. If the inventory is large,
the cost of checking records for each item might be high enough to cancel
the benefit of having the information. On the other hand, a hunch about the
average shelf life might not be good enough for decision-making purposes.
This means we must arrive at a compromise that involves selecting a small
number of items and calculating an average shelf life as an estimate of the
average shelf life of all items in inventory. This is a compromise, since the
measurements for a sample from the inventory will produce only an
estimate of the value we want, but at substantial savings. What we would
like to know is how "good" the estimate is and how much more will it cost
to make it "better". Information of this type is intimately related to sampling
techniques.
Cluster sampling can be used whenever the population is homogeneous but
can be partitioned. In many applications the partitioning is a result of
physical distance. For instance, in the insurance industry, there are small"
clusters" of employees in field offices scattered about the country. In such a
case, a random sampling of employee work habits might not required travel
to many of the" clusters" or field offices in order to get the data. Totally
sampling each one of a small number of clusters chosen at random can
eliminate much of the cost associated with the data requirements of
management.
Question 3: What is the significance of Regression Analysis? How does it
help a manager in the decision making process?
Answer:
Regression analysis is a powerful technique for studying relationship between
dependent variables (i.e., output, performance measure) and independent variables
(i.e., inputs, factors, decision variables). Summarizing relationships among the
variables by the most appropriate equation (i.e., modeling) allows us to predict or
identify the most influential factors and study their impacts on the output for any
changes in their current values.
Unlike the deterministic decision-making process, such as linear optimization by
solving systems of equations, Parametric systems of equations and in decision
making under pure uncertainty, the variables are often more numerous and more
difficult to measure and control. However, the steps are the same. They are:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Simplification
Building a decision model
Testing the model
Using the model to find the solution:
It is a simplified representation of the actual situation
It need not be complete or exact in all respects
It concentrates on the most essential relationships and ignores the less
essential ones.
It is more easily understood than the empirical (i.e., observed)
situation, and hence permits the problem to be solved more readily
with minimum time and effort.
5. It can be used again and again for similar problems or can be modified.
Fortunately the probabilistic and statistical methods for analysis and decision making
under uncertainty are more numerous and powerful today than ever before. The
computer makes possible many practical applications. A few examples of business
applications are the following:
The arithmetic mean (or the average, simple mean) is computed by summing
all numbers in an array of numbers (xi) and then dividing by the number of
observations (n) in the array.
Mean =
Xi /n,
The mean uses all of the observations, and each observation affects the
mean. Even though the mean is sensitive to extreme values; i.e., extremely
large or small data can cause the mean to be pulled toward the extreme
data; it is still the most widely used measure of location. This is due to the
fact that the mean has valuable mathematical properties that make it
convenient for use with inferential statistical analysis. For example, the sum
of the deviations of the numbers in a set of data from the mean is zero, and
the sum of the squared deviations of the numbers in a set of data from the
mean is the minimum value.
better than other measures to indicate where the observed data are
concentrated.
Generally, the median provides a better measure of location than the mean
when there are some extremely large or small observations; i.e., when the
data are skewed to the right or to the left. For this reason, median income is
used as the measure of location for the U.S. household income. Note that if
the median is less than the mean, the data set is skewed to the right. If the
median is greater than the mean, the data set is skewed to the left. For
normal population, the sample median is distributed normally with m = the
mean, and standard error of the median (p/2) times standard error of the
mean.
The mean has two distinct advantages over the median. It is more stable,
and one can compute the mean based of two samples by combining the two
means.
(D.) Mode:
The mode is the most frequently occurring value in a set of observations.
Why use the mode? The classic example is the shirt/shoe manufacturer who
wants to decide what sizes to introduce. Data may have two modes. In this
case, we say the data are bimodal, and sets of observations with more than
two modes are referred to as multimodal. Note that the mode is not a helpful
measure of location, because there can be more than one mode or even no
mode.
When the mean and the median are known, it is possible to estimate the
mode for the unimodal distribution using the other two averages as follows:
Mode 3(median) - 2(mean)
This estimate is applicable to both grouped and ungrouped data sets.
you repeat the experiment over and over again, independently and under essentially
identical conditions, the percentage of the time that A occurs will converge to p. For
example, under the Frequency Theory, to say that the chance that a coin lands
heads is 50% means that if you toss the coin over and over again, independently,
the ratio of the number of times the coin lands heads to the total number of tosses
approaches a limiting value of 50% as the number of tosses grows. Because the ratio
of heads to tosses is always between 0% and 100%, when the probability exists it
must be between 0% and 100%.
In the Subjective Theory of Probability, probability measures the speaker's "degree
of belief" that the event will occur, on a scale of 0% (complete disbelief that the
event will happen) to 100% (certainty that the event will happen). According to the
Subjective Theory, what it means for me to say that "the probability that A occurs is
2/3" is that I believe that A will happen twice as strongly as I believe that A will not
happen. The Subjective Theory is particularly useful in assigning meaning to the
probability of events that in principle can occur only once. For example, how might
one assign meaning to a statement like "there is a 25% chance of an earthquake on
the San Andreas fault with magnitude 8 or larger before 2050?" (See Freedman and
Stark, 2003, for more discussion of theories of probability and their application to
earthquakes.) It is very hard to use either the Theory of Equally Likely Outcomes or
the Frequency Theory to make sense of the assertion.
Assignment B
Question 1: Write a note on decision making in management. How one will
take decision under risk and uncertainty.
Answer:
possible, in the US, to put a credit card into a hole-in-the-wall machine and
get basic legal advice about basic and standard legal problems.
Constraints on Decision-Making
Internal Constraints
These are constraints that come from within the business itself.
- Availability of finance. Certain decisions will be rejected because they
cost too much
- Existing Business Policy. It is not always practical to re-write business
policy to accommodate one decision
- Peoples abilities and feelings. A decision cannot be taken if it assumes
higher skills than employees actually have, or if the decision is so unpopular
no-one will work properly on it.
External Constraints
These come from the business environment outside the business.
- National & EU legislation
- Competitors behaviour, and their likely response to decisions your
business makes
- Lack of technology
- Economic climate
Quality of Decision-Making
Some managers and businesses make better decisions than others. Good
decision-making comes from:1. Training of managers in decision-making skills. See Developing
Managers
2. Good information in the first place.
3. Management skills in analysing information and handling its
shortcomings.
4. Experience and natural ability in decision-making.
t=
48.80 - 54.50
5.5 / 25
= -5.1818
3 The salaries paid to the managers of a company had a mean of Rs. 20,000 with a standard
deviation of Rs 3,000, What will be the mean and standard deviation if all the salaries are
increased by
1) 10%
2) 10% of existing mean
3) Which policy would you recommend if the management does not want to have increased
disparities of wages?
Answer
1) 10%
Both the mean and standard deviation will simply increase by 10% to
Rs 22,000 and Rs 3,300, respectively.
2) 10% of existing mean
Only the mean will increase by 10% to Rs 22,000 and the standard
deviation will remain the same at Rs 3,000.
3) Which policy would you recommend if the management does not
want to have increased disparities of wages?
Increasing the salaries by 10% of existing mean does not increase
disparities of wages, therefore, is recommended.
Case study
Please read the case study given below and answer questions given at the end.
Kushal Arora, a second year MBA student, is doing a study of companies going public for the first
time. He is curious to see whether or not there is a significant relationship between the sizes of
the offering (in crores of rupees) and the price per share after the issue. The data are given
below:
Size (in
108
39
68.40
51
10.40
4.40
crore of
rupees)
12
13
19
12
6.50
4
Price ( in
rupees)
Question
You are required to calculate the coefficient of correlation for the above data set and comment
what conclusion Kushal should draw from the sample.
Answer:
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
TOTALS
r=
X
12
13
19
12
6.5
4
66.5
Y
108
39
68.4
51
10.4
4.4
281.2
XY
1296
507
1299.6
612
67.6
17.6
3799.8
X
144
169
361
144
42.25
16
876.25
Y
11664
1521
4678.56
2601
108.16
19.36
20592.08
6(3799.8) - (66.5)(281.2)
= 0.67
Assignment C
(Objective Questions)
a. Cluster sampling
b. Systematic sampling
c. Stratified sampling
d. Convenience sampling.
5. If every item in the data set is increased by the same quantity then the standard deviation of
the data set--
(d) The slope and the Y-intercept remain constant for all combinations of X
and Y values which satisfy the equation
7. Which of the following quantitative method is not used by managers to take decision:-
b) Time series
c) Regression analysis
d) Hypothesis testing
8. In the graphical method of solving linear programming problems the feasible region is the set of
all points-a) Which does not satisfy any of the constraints?
b) Which satisfy exactly one of the constraints?
d) The tallest rectangle in a histogram represents the class interval with the
lowest frequency
10. Which of the following measures in not affected by the presence of extreme values in a
dataset :a) Range
b) Arithmetic mean
c) Standard deviation
d) Median
11.
b) 6
c) 9
d) 12
2
12. The following details are available with regard to a data set: Sx = 33, Sx = 199,
n = 6. If each observation in the data set is multiplied by 2 then the standard deviation of the
resulting values will be equal to:
a) (35/3)1/2
b) 35/3
c) 3
d) 25
13. The following data pertains to three commodities:Commodity
Rice
Wheat
Pulses
The base year is 1994. The unweighted aggregates price index for the year 2004 is
approximately--
14. If the regression equation is the perfect estimator of the dependent variable then which of the
following is false?
a) The standard error of estimate is zero
a) Coefficient of determination
b) Coefficient of correlation
c) Coefficient of variation
d) Standard error of estimate
17. If the coefficient of correlation between the two variables lies between -1 and 0, then the
covariance between them is-a) Positive
b) Negative
c) Zero
d) Equal in magnitude to the variances of both the variables
18. If bYX is the slope of coefficient of regression line of Y on X, and bXY is the slope coefficient of
regression line of X on Y then which of the following is true :a) bYX is positive implies that bXY is positive
a) Decision tree
b) Histogram
c) Scatter diagram
d) Frequency distribution
20. If the probability of occurrence of one event is not affected by the occurrence of another event
and vice versa then the two events are said to be-a) Collectively exhaustive
b) Independent
c) Dependent
d) Mutually exclusive
c) Posterior probability
d) Classical probability
22. In a binomial distribution the probability of getting zero or more numbers of successes is
equal to-a) 0
b) 1
c) The probability of getting zero success
d) The probability of getting successes in all trials
23. Which of the following measures represent the scatter of the values in a data set :a) Arithmetic mean
b) Geometric mean
c) Standard deviation
d) Median
24. As the sample size increases-a) The variation of the sample mean from the population mean becomes larger
b) The variation of the sample mean from the population mean becomes
smaller
c) The variance of the sample becomes less than the variance of the population
d) The standard deviation of the sample becomes more than the standard deviation of
the population.
25. In the graphical method of solving linear programming problems if there is a unique optimal
solution, then the optimal solution-a) Is always found at the center of the feasible region
b) Is always at the origin
c) Lies outside the feasible region
27. Which of the following conditions indicate the existence of multiple optimal solutions when a
linear programming problem is solved by the graphical method :a) One of the constraints is parallel to the horizontal axis
b) The objective function is parallel to the vertical axis
b) 336
c) 40
d) 56
29.
c) A set of ratios which have been calculated with the same numerators
d) A set of ratios which have been calculated with the same denominators
30. Which of the following statements is not true about standard deviation?
a) Combined standard deviation of two or more groups can be calculated
b) The sum of the squares of the deviations of items of any series from a
value other than the arithmetic mean would always be smaller
c) Standard deviation is independent of any change of origin
d) Standard deviation is dependent on the change of scale
31. Which of the following is/are true with respect to geometric mean :(a) Geometric mean cannot be calculated if any of the value in the set is zero.
(b) Geometric mean is appropriate for averaging the ratios of change, for average of
proportions, etc.
(c) Geometric mean is considered most suitable average for index numbers.
c) 3/8
d) 1/2
33. If A and B are two mutually exclusive events and P(A) = 2/3, then the probability of events A
and B happening together is--
a) 0
b) 1/3
c) 2/3
d) 1/2
34. Which of the following can be directly used as the test statistic in hypothesis tests on the
basis of non standardized scale :(a) The sample mean, when the test involves the population mean.
(b) The difference between two sample means, when the tests involve the difference
between two population means.
(c) The sample proportion when the test is about the population proportion
(i) Only (a) above
(ii) Only (b) above
(iii) Only (c) above
b) A binomial distribution
c) A hyper geometric distribution
d) A Chi- square distribution
36. If we consider the process of selecting a simple random sample as an experiment then which
of the following can be treated as random variable(s)?
(a) Sample mean
(b) Sample standard deviation
(c) Sample range
(d) Sample median
(i) Only (a) above
(ii) Only (b) above
a) A positive quantity
b) A negative quantity
c) 0
d) Less than its expected value
38. A man has 6 friends. In how many ways he can invite one or more of them to a party?
a) 63
b) 64
c) 119
d) 120
39. Find x; if logx/log2 = log36/log4
a) 0
b) 2
c) 4
d) 6
40. The empirical relationship between range (R) and mean deviation (M.D) is-a) 2R=15M.D
b) 3R=17M.D
c) R=17M.D
d) 3R=M.D