2.
3.
a) Identify active and credible damage mechanisms that are reasonably expected to
occur during the time period
being considered (considering normal and upset conditions).
b) Determine the deterioration susceptibility and rate. For example, a fatigue crack is
driven by cyclic stress; corrosion damage is driven by the temperature, concentration
of corrosive, corrosion current, etc. A damage accumulation rule may be available to
mathematically model this process. Rather than a given value of the
magnitude of the damage mechanism driving forces, a statistical distribution of these
forces may be available (see
API 579-1/ASME FF2-1).
c) Using a consistent approach, quantify the effectiveness of the past inspection,
maintenance and process monitoring program and a proposed future inspection,
maintenance and process monitoring program. It is usually necessary to evaluate the
POF considering several alternative future inspection and maintenance strategies,
possibly including a "no inspection or maintenance" strategy.
d) Determine the probability that with the current condition, continued deterioration
at the predicted/expected rate will
exceed the damage tolerance of the equipment and result in a failure. The failure
mode (e.g. small leak, large
leak, equipment rupture) should also be determined based on the damage
mechanism. It may be desirable in
some cases to determine the probability of more than one failure mode and combine
the risks.
4.
5.
6.
7.
(a) mitigation
8.
Methods that use engineering judgment and experience as the bases for the
analysis of probabilities and consequences of failure.
(a) Qualitative risk assessment
(b) Relative risk
(c) Nominal risk
9.
(a) Hazard
10.
Quantitative risk analysis logic models generally consist of (blank) and (blank)
(a) Event tree and fault tree
(b) Product trees and loss tree
(c) Likelihood trees and consequence trees
11.
12.
The susceptibilty of each equipment item should be clearly defined for current
and projected operating conditions including what factors?