Special Report
China
and the IMF
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Contents
Executive Summary....................................................................................................................................... 3
Chinese Yuan Into SDR Basket? .................................................................................................................... 4
IMF Quota and Votes .................................................................................................................................... 5
The Dollar Peg ............................................................................................................................................. 11
Implications of Yuan Devaluation ............................................................................................................... 18
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The IMF determines the initial weight (column "currency amount"); the market determines the
exchange rate ("rate in USD"). You multiply the two and you get the "USD equivalent". The sum of those
numbers equal the value of one SDR, expressed in US Dollars.
The value of an SDR in other currencies can be calculated by applying respective USD exchange rates.
For example, one SDR is currently worth 1.3748 / 1.0607 = 1.2961.
There are no SDR coins or bills; it merely exists as a digital currency.
The weight of each currency changes as exchange rates fluctuate. For example: The IMF reviews those
weightings every five years. At the last review at the end of 2010, the weight of the Euro was set at
37.4%. Due to Euro weakness, it has now declined to 32.6%.
But how does the IMF determine the initial weight?
The IMF takes into account "the share of each currency in world exports of goods and services and in
international reserves."1
While weight in the SDR basket is important, there are other things to look at: quota and votes. Let's
take a look. It's a bit technical, but helps understand how the IMF works:
"Currency Amounts in New Special Drawing Rights (SDR) Basket, IMF, December 30, 2010
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The IMF has 188 member countries. Members have voting rights. Each member gets 737 "basic" votes.
The total number of basic votes is calculated as a percentage of total votes (5.502%).
Basic votes are add an element of democracy into the IMF, but they are nothing more than a fig leaf.
The real voting power comes from the "quota".
Each member is assigned a quota. Think of it as a paid-in subscription. The amount of a member's quota
is "based broadly on its relative size in the world economy"2.
"Where the IMF Gets Its Money", IMF, September 29, 2015
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But what are the criteria for inclusion in the basket anyway? The Australian and Canadian Dollar have a
share of global reserve currencies twice as high as the Yuan, yet are not to be included in the SDR.
Relative to its share of world GDP, China is the most under-represented country in the SDR (and the US
the most over-represented, see column " SDR - GDP"). Euro-zone countries and the UK are also overrepresented. This is a consequence of the fact that growth in developed countries has flattened out
while emerging economies keep surging ahead.
Based on SWIFT5 the Chinese currency has advanced to 5th-most used currency:
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China, on the other hand, has been bleeding Dollar reserves in order to defend its currency:
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China can afford to do so for a while, since it had accumulated the world's largest amount of foreign
currency reserves (over $4 trillion at one point). However, $500 billion have left within 15 months.
The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is trying to hold the Yuan as stable as possible towards the US Dollar.
This is done to minimize (or eliminate) currency hedging costs for importers and exporters, giving them
confidence they would not suffer from sudden currency movements. This makes planning future costs
and revenues easier. Small companies can afford to take larger risks if currency fluctuations are
contained.
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Almost all other currencies have depreciated against the US Dollar, some dramatically, the Yuan has
effectively appreciated strongly against most currencies. Among them currencies from Asian countries
competing with Chinese exports. This makes Chinese exports less competitive.
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Note the appreciation against the Brazil Real (100%), Japanese Yen, Indonesian Rupiah and the
Australian Dollar (each around 50%).
Add to that an average
annual wage increase of
12% and China suddenly
loses its traditional
manufacturing cost
advantage. According to
industry sources,
comparable positions in
middle management
have to be paid higher
wages in China than in
Germany.
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"One of China's Most Popular Trades May Be Coming to an End", Bloomberg, August 11, 2015
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The PBoC is currently running a currency system called "BBC" - basket, band and creep. The basket
consists of many currencies (exact composition unknown, but the US Dollar is estimated to have a
weight of as much as 98%). The PBoC allows the onshore Yuan to trade within 2% from a central parity
(announced daily at 1:15pm GMT) on both sides during one day. The closing price of day one becomes
the central parity of day two, and so forth:
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In theory, the Yuan could thereby move 10% within a week (5 x 2%), or 40% within a month. But it is far
from traded freely.
The trading band has been increased very carefully over the past 10 years:
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Chinese imports from Australia are down 20% from the peak (much of decline might be due to price
decline of raw materials, not necessarily volume).
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According to a report7, Chinese buyers account for 46% of global luxury purchases, making them the
biggest buyers on the planet (American
American buyers second place with 19%).
The Wall Street Journal quoted a study8 stating "China contributed about 59% of net profit at
Volkswagen, 45% at BMW and 37% at General Motors.
A senior employee of a German car maker told me that you could take apart and then sell all the
individual spare parts of a BMW in China for eight times the price of a new car.
The importance of China for the world economy cannot be overstated. The last time China devalued its
currency a lot, in 1995 (50%), other Asian countries subsequently suffered. Their currencies also began
to weaken in a downwards spiral that evolved into the Asi
Asian Financial Crisis (1997-99).. History doesn't
repeat, but it rhymes. Be prepared.
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