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Seoul metropolitan area

Justin S. Chang*, Dongjae Jung, Jaekyung Kim and Taeseok Kang

This paper compares the performance of trip generation models. Trip generation estimates the

number of trips to and from a traffic analysis zone. This process is the first stage of the conventional

four-step travel forecasting framework. Although many approaches have been suggested for

this step, regression and category analyses have been widely applied. The two methods have

generated an acceptable level of performance from the perspective of transport planning. Critical

problems, however, have also been observed. In the regression analysis, trip rates are treated as

continuous variables that can be negative, which is obviously unrealistic. Furthermore, the method

does not incorporate traveler behavior. For the category analysis, its arbitrary way of choosing

independent variables and their strata has drawn critiques. The cell-by-cell calculation in this

method also increases the concerns about unreliable estimation of trip rates. Censored regression,

count data, and discrete choice models have been visited for the alternative of regression approach

while the multiple classification method has been conceived for the substitute of the category

analysis. A systematic examination of the performance among the models has not been discussed

sufficiently yet, which is the motive of this paper. Six representative models regression, tobit,

Poisson, ordered logit, category, and multiple classification analyses were applied to the homebased work trips in the Seoul metropolitan area. Cross-validation and back-casting were the key for

checking the performance among the models. In this process, the measures of correlation,

variance, and coincidence were compared. The category-type model was superior in overall

performance.

Keywords: Trip generation, Regression model, Tobit model, Poisson model, Ordered logit model, Cross-classification, Multiple classification analysis, Validation

mathematical models that associate each purpose with

demographic characteristics of the TAZ, such as population, households, employment, vehicle ownership, and

income. Current information on these variables may be

obtained from household surveys or census reports. Future

information, on the other hand, is derived from projections.

Early versions of trip generation were mainly based on

zonal aggregation approaches. However, the aggregate

models lack the context of travelers behavior. Householdbased schemes, thus, are more common in current practice,

even though they require an additional process of obtaining

zone-level totals (Papacostas and Prevedouros, 2001; 351

353).

Linear regression (hereafter regression) and category

analyses are the representative methodologies used for this

step. They have widely been applied to empirical studies

MORE OpenChoice articles are open access and distributed under the terms of

the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License 3.0

Received 15 October 2013; accepted 17 January 2014

DOI 10.1179/1942787514Y.0000000011

Journal of Transportation Research

Introduction

This paper compares the performance of trip generation

models. Trip generation, which is the first phase of

conventional four-step travel forecasting framework, estimates the number of trips to and from each traffic analysis

zone (TAZ) for various purposes. This trip-based traditional approach is still the standard practice for most

strategic transport planning, even though advanced

approaches like tour- and activity-based models explore

more realistic representations of behavior in travel demand

studies (McNally and Rindt, 2007; Donnelly et al., 2010).

1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742, Korea

78

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Chang et al.

planning perspective.

However, there are also limitations of these traditional

frameworks. For regression-based trip generation models,

three typical drawbacks have been observed. First, the

number of trips is treated as a continuous random variable

though it is a discrete one (Barmby and Doornik, 1989;

Ma and Goulias, 1999; Wallace et al., 1999; Jang, 2005;

Schmocker et al., 2005; Badoe, 2007; Roorda et al., 2010;

Lim and Srinivasan, 2011). People, for example, can make

two trips per day; people cannot make 1?7 trips per day.

Second, the dependent variable may take on negative

values due to the assumption of normal distribution for

the disturbance of trip rates (Barmby and Doornik, 1989;

Cotrus et al., 2005; Ma and Goulias, 1999; Wallace et al.,

1999; Jang, 2005; Badoe, 2007). In trip generation, the

dependent variable is zero for a significant fraction of the

observations. For those who make trips, the travel

demand can be measured; but for those who do not, the

spatial interaction cannot be recorded and is set equal to

zero. Namely, although the data for trip generation are

censored, the regression model cannot address the nature.

Finally, the model does not represent traveler behavior

theory because it simply matches a statistical relationship

between the dependent variable and a set of independent

variables (Schmocker et al., 2005; Badoe, 2007; Roorda

et al., 2010; Lim and Srinivasan, 2011). It is difficult to

observe travelers behavioral mechanisms in trip-making,

such as utility maximization and cost minimization. The

category analysis may have useful advantages over

regression-type trip generation models (Stopher and

McDonald, 1983). The technique is independent upon

the zonal system of the study area; no assumptions are

required about the shape of the relationship between the

trip rate and explanatory variables; it represents classspecific behavior; and it does not permit extrapolation

beyond its calibration strata, although the lowest or

highest class of a variable can be open-ended. However,

the model also suffers from two broad limitations (Stopher

and McDonald, 1983). First, a nave approach in choosing

independent variables and their strata for classification is

not statistically justifiable but only empirically acceptable.

The method bears no statistical goodness-of-fit measures,

so the calibration cannot be verified. Second, the cell-bycell calculation reduces the reliability of cell values. In

particular, the uncertainty increases when there are cells

with small samples and/or large variances. This calculation

mechanism also requires large sample sizes, which incurs

much cost and time (Ortuzar and Willumsen, 2011;

158).

There has been research to overcome and/or mitigate

these limitations. Censored regression models such as tobit

analysis have been used to block the potential negative

values on trip generation rates (Cotrus et al., 2005).

Poisson and negative binomial models have been used to

try to address the integer nature of the dependent variable

(Barmby and Doornik, 1989; Ma and Goulias, 1999;

Wallace et al., 1999; Jang, 2005; Badoe, 2007). These

count data models can also confine the figure of the trip

rate greater than or equal to zero. Ordered logit and probit

models can be understood as generalized frameworks in

discrete choice methods are, in principle, free from the

three limitations of the likelihood of negative trip rates,

the continuous dependent variable, and the lack of

incorporation of traveler behavior theory (Sheffi, 1979;

Agyemang-Duah and Hall, 1997; Schmocker et al., 2005;

Badoe, 2007; Roorda et al., 2010). Multiple classification

analysis is also found in the literature as an alternative

approach to a simple category model for person trips

(Stopher and McDonald, 1983) and for freight movements

(Bastida and Holguin-Veras, 2009). This model adopts a

statistically justifiable approach based on analysis of

variance (ANOVA). The cell value is estimated with the

grand and group means (Stopher and McDonald, 1983).

As reviewed, there have been studies to alleviate the

limitations of conventional trip generation models. Also,

some literature has compared two models (e.g., Cotrus

et al., 2005) or more (e.g. Badoe, 2007; Lim and Srinivasan,

2011). The comparative studies, however, have mostly

focused on the estimation results and a rough validation,

normally with current datasets. On the other hand, a

systematic validation is explored in this study to compare

the performance of models, incorporating both crossvalidation and the historical method in the form of backcasting. It should be noted that the model comparison does

not directly ascertain whether the forecast response is

correct, but does assess whether it is reasonable or

explainable given what is known about traveler behavior.

The next section describes the scope and design of this

study. Subsequent two sections deal with the theoretical

basis of the trip generation models which are tested in this

paper. The process and results of the empirical study then

follow. The section includes data used, estimation results,

and performance comparison of the models. Finally,

concluding remarks are given.

Figure 1 summarizes the critiques on the conventional trip

generation models as discussed in the introductory section.

The diagram also shows the alternative approaches and

their representative models, for which performance is

tested in this paper.

In fact there are other models for each group of

alternatives. The ordered probit (Schmocker et al., 2005;

Roorda et al., 2010; Lim and Srinivasan, 2011), the

negative binomial (Wallace et al., 1999; Badoe, 2007; Lim

and Srinivasan, 2011), and the truncated normal (Badoe,

2007) models have been applied from the groups of

discrete choice, count data, and censored regression

frameworks, respectively. However, they are less common

methodologies than those chosen in Figure 1.

It should also be noted that there are approaches which

are not included in this comparative study. Highly

sophisticated techniques such as the count data model

with zero inflation (Jang, 2005) and the two-limit tobit

version are not included in this study. The binary stop-go

model (Daly, 1997) is not considered either. There may be

others which are not enumerated in this paper. Indeed,

these advanced models are associated with appealing

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empirical performances have not generally been verified.

qn ~0

Regression-type models

qn ~qn

if qn 0

if

(2)

qn w0

Regression model

Regression analysis in trip generation functionalizes the

relationship between trip generation rates, or the dependent variable, and a set of independent variables

qn ~bT xn zen ,

n~1,2, ,N

(1)

observation (which is households in this study), b is the

vector of parameters that should be estimated, x is the

vector of independent variables, and e is a random

disturbance.

Regression models require rather strong assumptions.

Four representative issues are that the linear functional

form is demanded; the model parameters should be

identifiable, namely the full rank condition should be

satisfied; the data on the independent variables are nonstochastic; and the disturbances are normally distributed,

with zero mean and constant (or homoscedastic) and

uncorrelated (or independent) variance (Greene, 2000;

213223).

independent variable cannot be the marginal effect of the

variable, since q is unobserved. The marginal effect in this

kind of model, or the case with censoring at zero and

normally distributed disturbances, is given by

T

b xn

(3)

bW

s

where W(?) is a normal cumulative distribution function

and s is the standard deviation of the error term (Greene,

2000; 905926).

Poisson model

Trip rates, or the dependent variable, clearly show a

discrete nature. In addition, a very large proportion of trip

rates by households are zeros or small values. Regression

analyses based on least squares hold limitations for

dealing with these characteristics. A count data model

such as a Poisson regression can be an alternative

framework

Tobit model

Only the part of the distribution above q 50 is relevant to

the modeling for trip generation. Conventional regression

methods fail to account for the qualitative difference

between limit (zero) and non-limit (continuous) observations. The tobit model is a useful tool to deal with these

censored data. When data are censored, the distribution

that applies to the sample data is a mixture of discrete and

continuous distributions (Cotrus et al., 2005). To analyze

this distribution, a new random variable q which is

transformed from the original q is defined

80

e{ln lqnn

, n~1,2, ,N

P qn ~qn ~

qn !

(4)

normally applied to ln, namely ln ln5bTxn, and the

partial effects in this non-linear regression model are given

by lnb (Greene, 2000; 880893).

The Poisson model, however, shows a critical limitation:

it assumes that the conditional mean and variance

functions are equal. Overdispersion is particularly problematic (Barmby and Doornik, 1989; Ma and Goulias, 1999;

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overdispersion is detected, the negative binomial model,

which considers the variance to differ from the mean, is

usually considered to apply. However, the data used for

this study are not very concerned with this problem, as

shown in Table 2.

The observed number of trips made by households is

ordered. The count data model explains these rates using a

definite point value. However, it would be more natural to

think that a decision-maker has some level of utility associated with trip-making. When the level of utility is above

some cutoff values, it is understood to lead to trip-making.

The ordered logit model specifies trip rates as a set of

ordered alternatives. It is not difficult to regard that one

alternative is similar to those close to it and less similar to

those further away (Train, 2009; 159164)

qn ~0 if qn h0

qn ~1 if h0 vqn h1

..

.

qn ~k

(5)

if hk1 vqn hk

..

.

qn has the similar specification to the other models in this

study, namely qn ~bT xn zen .

Provided that en is distributed logistic, the probability of

household n making k trips is given by

Pqn ~k~F hk {bT xn {F hk{1 {bT xn

(6)

where F(?) is the cumulative distribution function of en.

The marginal effects of the ordered logit model is given by

F hk{1 {bT xn {F hk {bT xn b

(7)

where F9(?) is the logistic density function and thus the

effects represent the rate of change in the probability of tripmakings associated with a unit change in the independent

variables, holding all other variables constant.

Cross-classification-type models

Category analysis

The category analysis, or the cross-classification method,

would be the most extensively used approach for trip

generation. In this framework, household types are

classified according to a set of categories that are highly

correlated with trip-making. The dependent variable is

assumed to be continuous and two or three explanatory

variables, each broken into three or four discrete levels,

are usually applied. The independent variables can include

household size, car ownership, household income, and

some measures of land-use.

Mathematically, each household category constitutes a

cell in the cross tabulation. The average trip rate in a cell is

then calculated by simple algebra

Qh

q- h ~

H

(8)

household type h (e.g., the one car and two-worker

household); Qh and Hh are the total number of trips and

households observed for type h, respectively.

Multiple classification

The conventional category analysis suffers from two

important methodological drawbacks: a non-statistical basis

and cell-by-cell calculation. The multiple classification

method can overcome these disadvantages. A statistically

justifiable approach based on a series of ANOVAs is applied

to select independent variables and their strata. First, oneway ANOVAs between trip rates and each candidate

variable are used to find the best grouping for each variable.

In this process, measures such as an F statistic and R2 can be

used. Once statistically significant independent variables

have been identified, multi-way ANOVAs between trip

rates and two or three candidate variables are applied. It is

an extensive trial-and-error procedure to examine the best

classification scheme. The eta-square g2, which is the ratio

of the sum of squares of the candidate variable to the

corrected total in the ANOVA output, can be used to

determine more contributable variables (Stopher and

McDonald, 1983). A grand-group mean approach is used

to estimate the cell value. The grand mean is calculated over

the entire sample, while the group mean is computed from

the row and column sums of the category table. A cell value

is found by adding the deviations of the cell to the grand

mean; this process is different from the cell-by-cell

calculation in the conventional category analysis (Stopher

and McDonald, 1983).

There are two drawbacks to multiple classification analysis. The ANOVA-based statistically justifiable approach

requires extensive trial-and-error procedures with no claim

of optimality. Its empirical acceptance is subject to low

efficiency in selecting good classification structures. The

grand-group mean calculation also loses the class-to-class

relationship between independent variables since one

variable is computed over all classes of the other variable

(Stopher and McDonald, 1983).

Schemes

The goodness-of-fit for each model are examined based on

several procedures: the signs of the variables are checked

against engineering judgment and corresponding expectations; a t-test based on the standard error of the estimate

is applied to inspect the statistical significance of each

variable; a statistic which is used for exploring the

significance of the entire model is estimated, such as the

F-statistic for the regression analysis and the likelihood

ratio test for the ordered logit model; and informal

indicators such as the coefficient of determination R2 and

McFaddens r2 are examined.

However, the comparison between models is not

straightforward. The magnitude of the estimated coefficients cannot be meaningfully compared between the

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models since the scales are different. The same holds true

for the standard goodness-of-fit measures such as the Ftest, R2, and t-test.

The performance comparison between models is conducted with validation. Validation tests a models ability to

predict future behavior. It requires comparing the model

output with information other than that used in estimating

or calibrating the model. Namely, the model output is

compared with observed travel data. Two ways of checking

model performance are considered in this paper. They are

the historical method and cross-validation.

Cross-validation is a statistical method for validating a

predictive model. Subsets of the data are held out for use

as validating sets; a model is fit to the remaining data and

used to predict for the validation set. Averaging the

quality of the predictions across the validation sets yields

an overall measure of prediction accuracy.

There are three distinct forms in the cross-validation.

Table 1 summarizes the advantages and limitations of the

cross-validation techniques. The simplest type would be

the hold-out technique, which is adopted in this study. It

divides observations into two subsets: one is for estimation and calibration, and the other is for validation.

Another form of cross-validation leaves out a single

observation at a time; this is similar to the jackknife

technique in the resampling. Lastly, the K-fold crossvalidation technique splits the data into K subsets; each is

held out in turn as the validation set (Picard and Cook,

1984; Kohavi, 1995).

The hold-out method is easy to apply, but there are few

reliable rules for classifying samples into the estimation

and validation sets. If data for estimation and validation

are sufficient enough as in this study, this issue does not

empirically matter much. The leave-one-out technique

may incur minimal errors because it simulates total

sample-size times, leaving just one observation out in

every trial. However, this method is inapplicable to large

sized datasets. The K-fold method requires acceptable

computation time and may generate reasonable errors in

the validation. However, this scheme also suffers from the

arbitrariness in determining the number K.

The historical technique is either forecasting, in which a

prior-year model is used to forecast current travel that is

then compared with actual current travel, or back-casting,

in which a current year model is used to estimate travel for a

prior year that is then compared with actual travel in the

prior year. The literature establishes little consensus on the

better of the two: the choice is fundamentally datadependent (Committee for Determination of the State of

the Practice in Metropolitan Area Travel Forecasting,

2007). Using both trials, of course, would be good practice.

In this paper, back-casting is used due to data availability.

Measures

It would be desirable to have some quantitative measures

for validation. In this paper, measures of correlation,

variance, and coincidence are considered (Cambridge

Systematics, Inc., 2010).

Correlation refers to a statistical relationship between

the observed and estimated trip rates. The closeness can be

expressed numerically by the correlation coefficient r

sq q^

(9)

r~ n n

sqn sq^n

where ^

qn refers to the estimated value of qn , sqn q^n is the

qn , and sqn and sq^n are the

covariance between qn and ^

qn , respectively.

standard deviations of qn and ^

Root-mean-square error (RMSE) is a measure of the

differences between values predicted by a model and those

actually observed

v

u N

u1 X

2

^

(10)

qn {qn

RMSE~t

N n~1

Though RMSE is a good index of model accuracy, it is

vulnerable to the scale problem. Per cent RMSE is an

alternative because it is the normalized version of RMSE,

removing scaling effects

v

u N

u1 X ^

qn {qn 2

(11)

% RMSE~t

N n~1

qn

Low RMSEs and high values of the correlation

coefficient are only one desirable measure of fit. Another

important criterion is how the model simulates the pattern

of the data. Namely, the distribution of estimated trip

frequency should be analogous to the shape in the data.

Thus, the ability to duplicate turning points or rapid

changes in the data is an important criterion for model

evaluation. The coincidence plot and its corresponding

ratio are a useful tool to address this issue. The plot

compares estimated and observed trip frequency distributions. The ratio measures the per cent of area that

coincides. This rate lies between zero and one, where zero

indicates two disjoint distributions and one means an

identical pattern (Cambridge Systematics, Inc., 2010)

(

!)

^k

P

H

Hk

min P

,P

^

k

k Hk

k Hk

(

!)

(12)

^k

P

H

Hk

max P

,P

^

k

k Hk

k Hk

Hold-out method

K-fold method

Leave-one-out method

82

Advantages

Limitations

Easy to apply

Known to involve reasonable levels of errors

Acceptable computational needs

Minimal errors incurred in principle

Little reliable rule for determining the number K

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where Hk and H

observed and estimated at trip count k, respectively.

Empirical analysis

Data

The study area is the Seoul metropolitan region in Korea.

The geographical sector includes Gyeonggi province;

Incheon, which is the fourth largest city in Korea; and

Seoul, the largest city and capital of the country. Subregions establish the functional relationships in terms of

lifestyles, economic activities, urbanization, and land-uses.

There are two broad sets of data used in this study. The

data for household characteristics and trip generation rates

are based on the household travel diary survey of the Seoul

metropolitan area. The Korea Regional Development

Total Information System (REDIS) database supplies the

regional characteristics that affect home-based work trips.

The Korea Regional Development Total Information

System is the official statistical database of the Korea

Presidential Committee on Regional Development. It

collects more than 300 regional statistics and has provided

the data to the public since 2008. This study has used four

types of data: demographics, regional economy, transport

system, and land-use.

The travel diary survey was started in 2002 by the code

prescribed in the Korea Intermodal Surface Transportation

Efficiency Act. This study extracted home-based work trips

from data surveyed in 2002 and 2006. The data of 211 564

households in 2006 and those of 159 068 households in

2002 were collected, as shown in Table 2. Two-thirds of the

data from 2006 were used for the estimation while the

remaining data from 2006 and all the samples in 2002 were

applied for the validation. Since the sample size of the 5 or

more trip rate is too minimal compared to those of the

others, the category was excluded in this study. Thus the

sample size in Table 5 is 148 018 not 148 091.

Estimation results

Table 3 shows the independent variables considered in the

study. Three kinds of household characteristics and four

sets of regional characteristics were considered.

The specifications for regression, tobit, Poisson, and

ordered logit models are shown in Table 4. These are the

trip generation, finding an empirically best fit for each

approach. The process is subject to arbitrariness, but it

cannot be avoided in comparing different models; note

that the models tested have different mathematical

structures. However, it should be stressed that the four

models have the same independent variables through the

heuristic method for specification, which is helpful for a

fair comparison across the models tested.

Table 5 shows the estimation results for regression,

tobit, Poisson, and ordered logit models. The results show

satisfactory goodness-of-fit. The formal significance

indices of F- and the likelihood ratio statistics indicate

that the null hypothesis that all the parameters are zero

can be rejected at the 0?01 level of significance. The values

of R2 and r2, though they are an informal goodness-of-fit

index, are also at an empirically acceptable level.

However, the r2 of the Poisson model is relatively low.

Not just the overall goodness-to-fit but also the

reasonableness of each parameter should be checked.

Since the marginal effects of independent variables are not

equal to the coefficients in the tobit, Poisson, and ordered

logit models, the effects are also given. The figures in the

parentheses of Table 5 are the partial effects of parameters

of the tobit and Poisson models while those for the

ordered logit model are shown in Table 6. Even though

the discussion regarding the partial effects is indirect to the

purpose of this paper, the effects are useful for examining

sensitivity to the explanatory variables.

All the coefficients in the model estimates have the

expected signs. The variable number of employees is the

direct explanatory factor for the home-based work trips. It

is common sense that more commuters make more

commuting trips. This element, however, is not the only

cause for trip generation. The variables household

income and car ownership are the independent variables

from the group of household characteristics. They reflect

the degree of economic activities by household. Namely, it

can be expected that a trip-maker with vehicles and higher

income would actively participate in economic activities.

This results in more spatial interactions in the form of

commuting trips. The variable number of subway lines is

the factor of regional characteristics in terms of the

transport system. Since the study area is the urbanized

Data in 2006

Data in 2002

Trip rate

Total

Estimation set

Validation set

Validation set

0

1

2

3

4

5 or more

Total

Average

Standard deviation

43 521 (20.57)

115 358 (54.53)

43 714 (20.66)

7630 (3.61)

1234 (0.58)

107 (0.05)

211 564 (100.00)

1.1130

0.7702

30 455 (20.57)

80 738 (54.52)

30 616 (20.67)

5337 (3.60)

872 (0.59)

73 (0.05)

148 091 (100.00)

1.0928

0.7804

13 066 (20.59)

34 620 (54.54)

13 098 (20.64)

2293 (3.61)

362 (0.57)

34 (0.05)

63 473 (100.00)

1.0920

0.7799

29 237 (18.38)

91 139 (57.30)

31 504 (19.81)

5961 (3.75)

1126 (0.71)

101 (0.06)

159 068 (100.00)

1.0926

0.7802

The number in parentheses refers to the percentage; return-home trips are excluded since origin-destination-based data are only available

in 2002 while production-attraction-based data are also built in 2006.

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Household

characteristics

Variable type

Variables considered

Household composition

Number of telecommuters

Number of employees

Number of household members

Number of preschool children

Household income

House ownership

Car ownership

Number of cars owned

Subway availability

Number of household members with driving licenses

Total population

Population density

Population moved in

Population moved out

Annual expenditures

Annual expenditures per capita

Annual expenditures per capita per area

Annual tax revenues

Annual local tax revenues

Annual local tax per capita

Fiscal self-reliance ratio

Number of car registered

Number of car registered per capita

Number of subway stations

Number of subway lines

Number of bus routes

Road density

Gross area

Residential area

Commercial area

Industrial area

Green area

Number of employees

Number of employees per area

Number of companies

Number of companies per area

Income level

Transportation

Regional

characteristics

Demographics

Regional economy

Transport system

Land-use

from the chronic congestion that other large cities normally

do. Hence, households would prefer their residential

locations close to public transportation. In particular, rail

transport is known to be the most reliable travel mode in

terms of travel time. Thus, the mandatory journey has a

positive causality with transit proximity. The length of

subway lines can also be considered as an alternative for the

be restrictive to explain the number of options in rail travels

that trip-makers face in their daily lives. The variables

population density, annual expenditures per capita per

area, and number of companies per area from the categories of demographics, regional economy, and land-use

are directly or indirectly related to employment opportunity. More companies can mean more jobs, which require

Table 4 The specication for regression, tobit, Poisson, and ordered logit models

Variable

Dependent variable

Trip rates

Independent variables

Number of employees

Household income

Car ownership

Population density

Annual expenditures per capita per area

Number of subway lines

Number of companies per area

84

Specification

Number of employees per household

1 if household income is below 1000 K won

2 if household income ranges 10002000 K won

3 if household income ranges 20003000 K won

4 if household income is over 3000 K won

1 if a household has cars; 0 otherwise

1000 persons per square kilometer

1000 K won per person per square kilometer

Number of lines within walking distance

1000 companies per square kilometer

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Table 5 Estimation results for regression, tobit, Poisson, and ordered logit models

Constant

Number of employees

Household income

Car ownership

Population density

Annual expenditures per capita per area

Number of subway lines

Number of companies per area

Regression

Tobit

Poisson

0.0098

0.5394***

0.0947***

0.0072*

0.0022***

0.3014***

0.0091***

0.0551***

20.3352 (20.3073)***

0.6166 (0.5652)***

0.1303 (0.1194)***

0.0323 (0.0296)***

0.0031 (0.0028)***

0.2972 (0.2724)***

0.0101 (0.0093)***

0.074 (0.0678)***

0.7248 (0.6644)***

0.9167

20.9518

0.4208

0.1004

0.0276

0.0030

0.2878

0.0068

0.0432

148 018

MLE

148 018

MLE

3.5167***

6.4983***

9.0627***

148 018

MLE

75 740.6***

29 981.8***

77 142.6***

Ordered logit

(21.0383)***

(0.4591)***

(0.1095)***

(0.0301)***

(0.0033)***

(0.3139)**

(0.0075)

(0.0471)***

21.8605***

1.9776***

0.3307***

0.0469***

0.0063***

0.9318***

0.0314***

0.1880***

1.0909

h1

h2

h3

Sample size

Estimator

F-statistic

^

{2 L0{L b

148 018

OLS

68 367.6***

R2

0.4005

0.0828

0.2302

^

* 10% significance level; ** 5% significance level; *** 1% significance level; {2 L0{L b is the likelihood ratio statistic where L(0) is

^

the value of the log likelihood function when all parameters are zero and L b is that at its maximum.

2

r

0.1765

government normally earns more taxes in a region with

large population, resulting in governments spending larger

budgets.

The term constant, on the other hand, should be

understood more carefully. It represents the disturbance in

the model formulation. Thus, it should be read as the

collective effects of the independent variables that are not

included in the specification. Hence, the positive sign, as in

the regression model, would match to the statistical

background.

However, not all the coefficient estimates are significantly different from zero at the usual 5 or 1% levels of

significance. Note that for most coefficients, the null

hypothesis that the true value is zero can be rejected at the

1% significance level, but some others are not statistically

different from zero at the same significance level.

However, the inability to reject the hypothesis that some

coefficients are zero at a particular significance level does

not imply that the hypothesis must be accepted.

Table 7 shows the results of the traditional category

analysis. The selection and stratification of independent

variables of this scheme fundamentally follows an ad hoc

procedure. The choice of explanatory factors comes from

the result of the multiple classification analysis. The levels

the previous four models. Also, a simple increment for the

grouping has been applied as in a usual category scheme.

These designs allow for consistent performance comparison between the models tested.

Table 8 is the summary of the one-way ANOVAs for the

grouping of the independent variables for multi-category

Table 7 Average daily commuting trips per household by

cross-classication

Number of employees

Population Household

density

income

Low

Medium

High

01000 K won

10002000 K won

20003000 K won

3000 K won or more

01000 K won

10002000 K won

20003000 K won

3000 K won or more

01000 K won

10002000 K won

20003000 K won

3000 K won or more

3 or more

0.26

0.69

0.87

0.90

0.08

0.26

0.32

0.41

0.11

0.33

0.39

0.47

0.47

0.76

0.84

0.86

0.73

0.85

0.89

0.90

0.74

0.85

0.91

0.92

0.76

1.27

1.48

1.58

1.35

1.54

1.61

1.66

1.36

1.53

1.60

1.69

1.37

1.52

1.98

2.27

1.83

2.11

2.22

2.39

1.93

2.18

2.33

2.51

Independent variable

q50

q51

q52

q53

q54

Number of employees

Household income

Car ownership

Population density

Annual expenditures per capita per area

Number of subway lines

Number of companies per area

20.20249

20.03386

20.00480

20.00065

20.09540

20.00322

20.01925

20.09550

20.01597

20.00227

20.00031

20.04500

20.00152

20.00908

0.27576

0.04611

0.00654

0.00088

0.12993

0.00438

0.02621

0.02048

0.00342

0.00049

0.00007

0.00965

0.00033

0.00195

0.00175

0.00029

0.00004

0.00001

0.00082

0.00003

0.00017

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Table 8 The result of one-way ANOVAs for the multiple classication analysis

Candidate variable

Stratification

F-statistic

Number of employees

Household income

Car ownership

Population density

Annual expenditures per capita per area

Number of subway lines

Number of companies per area

0, 1, 2, and 3 or more

01000 K won, 10003000 K won, and 3000 K won or more

0 and 1 or more

Low (05000), medium (500018 000), and high (18 000 or more)

0100, 100200, 200300, and 300 or more

0, 1, 2, 3, and 4

0500, 5001000, and 1000 or more

31541.922***

4647.556***

1306.429***

722.164***

58249.731***

33.762***

285.863***

Population density, annual expenditures per capita per area, and number of companies per area are represented by persons per square

kilometer, 1000 won per capita, and companies per square kilometer, respectively; and *** 1% significance level.

regression, tobit, Poisson, and ordered logit models also

show statistical significance in this multivariate analysis.

In general, two or three independent variables can be

considered for this analysis in the form of two- or threeway ANOVAs, respectively. Since seven candidate variables are all statistically significant, the scheme requires a

series of ANOVAs with a trial-and-error basis. The details

of the extensive ANOVA runs are not provided in this

paper: the result of the empirically best run, based on a

three-way ANOVA, is given in Table 9.

The cell values in the conventional and multiple crossclassifications generally match prior expectations. Namely,

the trip rate increases as the income is higher and the

number of employees grows. Two interesting observations, however, should be noted. First, two couples of cells

that are shaded in the traditional category analysis

contradict common sense. Intuitively, everything else

being equal, the one-employee household can be expected

to make more trips than the non-employee household.

However, the outcome is the reverse. Meanwhile, the

reason in which non-employee households make trips is

that there can be employers in the household who

contribute to the number of commuting trips. Second,

the cell values in the conventional model are similar

between the medium and high density areas. This may

suggest that population density can be classified into low

and a combined medium and high. It may also imply that

the other independent variables are not very well stratified.

Unfortunately, there is little systematic way to identify the

Table 9 Average daily commuting trips per household by

multiple classication

Number of employees

Population Household

density

income

Low

Medium

High

F-statistic

2

R

86

01000 K won

10003000 K won

3000 K won or more

01000 K won

10003000 K won

3000 K won or more

01000 K won

10003000 K won

3000 K won or more

3237.538***

0.434

3 or more

0.07

0.52

0.66

0.18

0.36

0.43

0.31

0.50

0.59

0.10

0.54

0.68

0.73

0.92

0.99

0.82

1.00

1.10

0.69

1.13

1.27

1.45

1.64

1.71

1.53

1.71

1.81

1.18

1.63

1.77

2.09

2.27

2.34

2.25

2.44

2.53

classification has generated the merged group of the factor

household income through the ANOVA procedure; note

that there are four and three strata in the category and

multiple classification analyses, respectively.

Performance comparison

The performance comparison between the models is

conducted based on validation. As stated in the methodological section, both cross-validation and back-casting

were adopted in this paper. The measures of correlation,

variance, and coincidence were utilized for the quantitative assessment of this process.

Since validation is basically represented by the comparison between the observed and modeled values, the first

task is to determine estimated trip rates for each model.

This is straightforward in the case of discrete choice

models. The continuous and count data models, however,

require an auxiliary step to convert model outputs to

integer approximations. The category-type models also

need this additional phase. The procedure adopted in this

paper is to round off the values to the nearest integer. This

process, however, inevitably involves biases.

Table 10 summarizes the results of validation. In the

cross-validation, the models show similar RMSEs while the

category-type approaches achieve slightly better performance. This trend is also observed from the % RMSE

measure. This result is not surprising because the two

indices represent fundamentally the same performance, or

variance, even though % RMSE eliminates the scale

problem of RMSE. The differences in model performance

are noticeable when viewing the correlation indicator.

Again, the category-type methods accomplish a better

goodness-of-fit while the Poisson model records the worst.

A comparable finding is seen in the coincidence index.

Back-casting results in consistent but somewhat different

outcomes from that of cross-validation. For the criteria of

variance and correlation, the traditional regression analysis

shows better performance. Again, the count data model

performs the worst. The most obvious difference in the

model performance can be found from the measure of

coincidence. This index has been conceived to identify a

models ability to simulate patterns in the data. The

category-type models achieve remarkable performance in

this measure.

Thus, it can be summarized that the category-type

models show superior performance. The regression model

also generated an acceptable level of performance. Even

2014

VOL

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Chang et al.

Cross-validation

RMSE

% RMSE

Correlation coefficient

Coincidence ratio

Back-casting

RMSE

% RMSE

Correlation coefficient

Coincidence ratio

Regression

Tobit

Poisson

Ordered logit

Category

MCA

0.6787

62.16%

0.5405

0.7531

0.6808

62.34%

0.5402

0.7407

0.6865

62.86%

0.4899

0.5640

0.6812

62.38%

0.5471

0.7713

0.6423

58.82%

0.6107

0.7500

0.6466

59.22%

0.5975

0.7430

0.6126

55.04%

0.6241

0.6885

0.6391

57.42%

0.6037

0.6805

0.6548

58.84%

0.5389

0.5387

0.6499

58.39%

0.5764

0.6971

0.6456

58.01%

0.5761

0.8188

0.6478

58.21%

0.5704

0.8134

though this result does not directly mean that the betterperformance model should become the standard framework for trip generation forecasting, the conventional

models can be said to address a satisfactory trip-making

behavior.

It should also be noted that the more sophisticated

models have not shown better performance in terms of

validation, though their implementation is more onerous.

This does not mean that the models do not provide more

advanced frameworks. Indeed, the models have more

appealing theoretical bases compared to those of the

conventional approaches. It is difficult, however, to find

ways to improve the mechanism of trip-making behavior

of individuals against the traditional methods. It is one of

the causes for the disappointing performance of the

advanced models.

Conclusion

Trip generation forecasts the number of trips that begin

from or end in each travel analysis zone. This modeling is

the first phase of the four-step travel forecasting procedure. Traditionally, regression and category analyses have

been applied to this step and have generated an acceptable

level of performance from the perspective of planning.

However, structural limitations for each type have also

been criticized. The negative trip rate likelihood, the

continuous nature in trip rates, and the lack of incorporation of traveler behavior characteristics are the typical

problems for the regression model. The category analysis

has also suffered from the drawbacks of non-statistical

justification and cell-by-cell calculation of trip rates.

Several alternative approaches have been put forward,

but a systematic investigation into the performance

between the models had not sufficiently been performed.

This paper provides such an analysis, using the Seoul

metropolitan region as the study area. The household

travel diary data and REDIS were used for modeling. Six

kinds of models were estimated and validated. The results

show that the category-type models are superior in overall

performance.

The results of this kind of comparative study may be

specific to the datasets used. Some approaches may lead to

better replication of observed patterns; however, they may

not lead to better forecasts. Namely, the findings by this

study should not be understood to give a green light to the

traditional methodologies for being the standard framework

that seemingly advanced methods, without refinement in

trip-making behavior mechanisms, do not necessarily

provide better performance in trip generation.

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the BK 21 plus program of

the National Research Foundation of Korea.

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