Ok, Paper by RISI

January
13
Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor

Analysis and Forecasts of the
Asian Pulp and Paper Markets
Order Chinas Influence
on World Graphic
Paper Markets in the
Coming Decade
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In December, although pulp prices increased by US$20-30/tonne, Hong Kong's woodfree

paper market was relatively quiet as both coated and uncoated woodfree paper prices remained
flat at their November levels due to the destocking strategy by sellers. Prices are expected to
rise moderately late in the first quarter of 2013 due to seasonal factors and cost pressure from
pulp and freight rates.
In the first quarter of 2013, newsprint prices in Asia were flat in India, but fell US$10-20/tonne
in Hong Kong to an estimated average of US$685/tonne. We are forecasting that newsprint
prices in Asia will be flat until the fourth quarter, when improving demand and a better global
balance, supported by cost pressures, lead to a US$20/tonne increase. There is some chance
of small increases in some markets in the next two quarters, depending on capacity available
from Russia and elsewhere.
Prices for both kraft top liner and recycled corrugating medium were generally flat in
December, although market activities remained sluggish and related waste paper prices were
dropping again. For virgin fiber-based kraftliner, imported prices were also unchanged. In
addition, prices for coated duplex board in Hong Kong were cut down by another US$10/
tonne.
In January, prices for recycled linerboard and medium are likely to rebound temporarily,
rising by US$10/tonne and US$5/tonne, respectively. The upward movements will be mainly
driven by producers' efforts to implement price increases from the start of 2013. Prices for
imported kraftliner are also expected to bounce back by US$10/tonne in the first month of
2013. Meanwhile, declines in coated duplex board prices are likely to pause this month, but
resume in February when the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays come to an end.
Economic Outlook
While 2012 was not a particularly good one for China's economy, with growth on pace to be
the slowest since 1999, there are clearly signs that the economy has stabilized and is improving
as it begins 2013 (Table 1). Given the turnaround, it is unlikely that there will be additional
government stimulus for the economy, especially as inflation is starting to turn back up. The
incoming leadership has signaled that they will move toward further reforms and restructuring
of the economy, and we expect the first moves from them later in 2013.
Perhaps the most prominent signs of the stabilization and upturn are evident in the acceleration
in industry. Industrial production growth in November exceeded 10% on a year-over-year basis
(Figure 1a) for the first time since March 2012, led by heavy industry, which grew 10.5% yearover-year. Electricity production also continued its rebound, growing 7.9% compared to 6.4% in
the previous month. The better growth in the industrial sector is being led by the revival of the
property sector. Growth in real estate investment has started to pick up, as reflected by increased
steel demand. Property sales continued to grow well in November, with year-over-year growth of
30%, and this has pushed year-to-date growth back into positive territory. We believe that real estate
will continue its momentum and this should continue to support growth in industrial production.
Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013
Table 1
Chinese Economic Indicators
Quarterly Data
Real GDP, Y/Y % Ch

Ind. Production, Y/Y % Ch
Exchange Rate, CNY/$
Consumer Prices, Y/Y % Ch
Producer Prices, Y/Y % Ch
Real Fixed-Asset Investment, Y/Y % Ch
Annual Trade Balance, Bil. US$
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
9.8
13.3
6.66
4.7
5.7
18.0
259.2
9.7
14.4
6.58
5.1
7.0
17.3
73.0
9.5
13.9
6.50
5.7
6.9
18.1
100.9
9.1
13.8
6.42
6.3
7.1
15.5
270.5
8.9
12.8
6.36
4.6
3.1
17.3
195.7
8.1
11.6
6.31
3.8
0.1
21.3
96.8
7.6
9.5
6.33
2.9
-1.4
20.2
22.9
7.4
9.1
6.35
1.9
-3.3
15.0
26.1
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
10.4
15.7
6.77
3.3
5.5
9.2
13.3
6.46
5.4
6
7.7
9.6
6.32
2.8
-1.5
8.1
11.5
6.26
3.5
3.1
8.3
12.2
6.20
4.2
5.2
8.2
9
6.10
3.7
5.9
7
6.9
6.04
3.3
3.6
6.5
7.5
6.0
3.6
4.2
Annual Data
Real GDP, Y/Y % Ch

Ind. Production, Y/Y % Ch
Exchange Rate, RMB/US$
Consumer Prices, Y/Y % Ch
Producer Prices, Y/Y % Ch
One concern is that inflation has started to tick back up. While it is still very low compared to 2011, November's
consumer price index grew 2.0% (Figure 1b), and it should accelerate somewhat during 2013. This will certainly
make it much less likely that monetary policy will be loosened further. Meanwhile, new bank loans in November
increased from the previous month, although they were once again slightly below expectations. It seems that
companies are increasing their use of the bond market as well as alternative sources of financing.
On the trade front, the news is decidedly less positive than in other sectors. Exports grew at just a 2.9% yearover-year pace in November 2012 (Figure 1c). The recession in Europe means continued lowered demand, and
the holiday shopping season in the USA showed the worst growth since 2008. In the near term, we do not expect
much improvement from either of these two demand centers, which will keep China's export growth subdued.
Imports were flat on a year-over-year basis in November, although this seems to reflect lower commodity
prices rather than poor domestic demand. Indeed, although import growth was non-existent, retail sales growth
accelerated to 14.9% year-over-year and has now risen for four consecutive months. Additionally, the China
Beige Book survey showed that the retail sector had the strongest revenue growth and the most optimistic
expectations for the coming year.
RISI
Figure 1a
Industrial Production Growth Highest Since March
Year-over-Year Growth in Fixed-Asset Investment and Industrial Production
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
FAI Growth
0%
Industrial Production
-5%
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Source: Dragonomics
Figure 1b
New Loans Slightly Below Expectations; Inflation Ticks Up
Year-over-Year Percent Change in Consumer Prices; New Bank Loans, Billion RMB
10%
2,000
New Loans
8%
CPI
1,500
6%
1,000
4%
.
2%
500
0%
0
-2%
-4%
-500
05
06
07
08
09
RISI
10
11
12
Figure 1c
Export Growth Remains Weak
Exports and Imports, Year-over-Year Percent Change
100%
Exports
80%
Imports
60%
40%
20%
0%
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
-20%
-40%
-60%
Newsprint
Current Conditions
While some contracts are still under negotiation, those completed indicate that contract newsprint prices are flat
in India and down slightly in other markets for the first quarter of 2013. In Hong Kong, buyers managed to secure
prices in a range of US$580/tonne to US$595/tonne, which is about US$5-20/tonne lower than the estimated
average in the fourth quarter of 2012. Most respondents are talking of a US$10/tonne reduction. These drops
likely occurred because buyers pushed for discounts and producers looking for sales given weakness elsewhere
chose to drop prices. Hong Kong buyers may have been in a good position to win price reductions with solid
inventories. Also ONP prices had stabilized in December as demand levels cooled a little, while supplies were
also somewhat low due to the holidays. This kept cost pressures from worsening for many suppliers. We are
estimating that average transaction prices were at US$585/tonne, a US$15/tonne reduction.
In India, buyers accepted steady prices for the first quarter, generally in the US$590/tonne to US$610/tonne range.
Spot prices reportedly remained lower, ranging from US$560/tonne to US$610/tonne, although there was less
volume available at these spot levels -- some said such deals are on hold as sellers wait to determine the balance
given the Kondopoga situation. Generally it appears that Kondopoga's downtime has concerned India's buyers
-- reportedly there are already delays in shipments from Russia and as well as other suppliers. Other factors that
may have encouraged buyers to accept stable prices are the reported downtime at Jeonju Paper (taking advantage
of a government program to encourage reduced energy use), the closure of a 150,000 tonne newsprint machine
at Norske Skog's Tasman mill and reduced inventory levels. For the year through September, Russia accounted
for 25% (or 220,000 tonnes) of India's estimated imports and about 15% of imports for all Asia.
In China, prices generally were flat, ranging from to RMB 5,100/tonne to 5,200/tonne.
October and November data showed sluggish demand conditions continuing in Asian markets.
India: Our estimate for third quarter 2012 imports came in slightly higher than estimated last month at
297,000 tonnes. Still this is 17% lower than a year ago and 16,000 tonnes less than the second quarter.
RISI
Markets reports have suggested a weak fourth quarter and the preliminary estimates for October hold true
to this, dropping below the 100,000 tonne mark to about 93,000 tonnes. Buyers still complain of weak ad
revenues and the need to cut pagination to control costs. The rupee exchange rate remained just under INR
55/USD in December, continuing to be a negative in terms of demand.
Japan: November demand numbers came in very weak due to a major reduction in producer inventories.
Demand fell 6% on a year-over-year basis, while consumption was down just 1%. For the year through
November, demand is off 0.6%, while consumption has done slightly better, yielding year-to-date growth
of 0.4%.
South Korea: South Korean demand growth remained positive in October with demand up 4% versus a
year ago, but then it tumbled 28% in November in part due to a major inventory correction by producers.
According to PPI Asia, Jeonju Paper took down time in November in line with the government's energy
conservation program, which is encouraging high energy consuming industries to cut production during
periods of peak electricity demand. Still consumption was off 21% as it compared unfavorably to a very
strong November 2011. The two solid months of September and October had put demand for the year
through October down 0.5%, but the horrible November leaves year-to-date demand down more than 3%.
November exports rose to 65,000 tonnes, the highest level of the year, with a jump in shipments to India and
to a lesser extent Singapore and Thailand. Although levels have dropped, India has remained the leading
destination for South Korea's exports, accounting for 24% of exports. China vaulted its way to second,
accounting for 14% of shipments, followed by Taiwan (13%) and Hong Kong (8%).
Taiwan: In October, import levels bounced back to 23,000 tonnes, a 10% increase over a year ago. It seems
there has been some inventory rebuilding going on over the past several months. For the year through
October, demand was up 2.3% compared to the same period last year.
Figure 2
Asian Newsprint Imports by Source Region
Thousand Tonnes
160
Asia
North America
Europe
Other
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
08 3 5 7 9 11 09 3 5 7 9 11 10 3 5 7 9 11 11 3 5 7 9 11 12 3 5 7 9
RISI
Hong Kong: November imports drifted lower from their September and October levels to 23,000 tonnes. They
were 2% lower than the previous year, leaving demand for the year through November down about 0.5%.
China: In December, markets reportedly remained sluggish and prices were flat at RMB 5,000-5,200/tonne.
Contacts continue to indicate that the market is suffering from oversupply. Chinese imports did drop back to
8,400 tonnes in November, their lowest level since February.
Singapore: Available Customs data show imports in September at about 10,000 tonnes again. This is
markedly lower than a year ago (off 20%), and for the year through September, Singapore's imports had
plummeted 23%. This weakness is reportedly due to a major inventory drawdown with the decline in true
consumption a much more mild 3%.
For the region as a whole, imports for September retreated back to 235,000 tonnes, equaling the average over
the previous five months. Receipts from Western Europe were relatively weak, and North America and Asia also
saw declines in their shipments into the region.
We are forecasting that prices will remain stable in the second quarter of 2013 with the market balance still being
tenuous. Rising ONP prices and low margins should prevent further declines. There is some chance of a small
increase, particularly in markets where prices declined this quarter, if supplies tighten a little (depending on how
long Kondopoga remains down). On the other hand, North America's lagging markets should continue to add to
available supplies unless some further closures occur (in North America or Europe).
In the third quarter, we are anticipating another quarter of steadiness before prices begin to move higher over
several quarters beginning in the fourth quarter. The higher prices will come as the market tightens modestly with
demand conditions expected to improve as the region's economies do better. At least ad revenues should stop
their decline and start to improve over the course of the year in some of the growth markets including India, as
economies begin to pick up modestly. ONP prices will also be contributing upward pressure, rising an estimated
US$20/tonne to US$25/tonne over the course of the year. Overall, we show 45 gsm newsprint prices in Hong
Kong averaging US$590/tonne in 2013 and US$636/tonne in 2014.
Figure 3
Hong Kong Newsprint Price
US Dollars per Tonne
950
48.8 gsm
900
45 gsm
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
RISI
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Printing & Writing Paper

Current Conditions
In December, the woodfree paper market in Hong Kong remained sluggish even with the potential of the
Christmas and New Year holidays stimulating demand. Even though pulp prices rose about US$20-30/tonne
in December, there was not enough market support for them to prompt a rise in paper prices. Instead, buyer
resistance and high inventories forced sellers to destock through offering competitive prices. There was a fairly
wide range in the offer prices of US$760-830/tonne for uncoated woodfree and US$720-770/tonne for coated
woodfree. We suspect most transactions occurred in a more narrow range. We estimate that average transaction
prices for Hong Kong settled at US$815/tonne for uncoated woodfree and US$755/tonne for coated woodfree,
steady at their levels from November. There were some spot deals done by APRIL in China at very low levels
(a little less than US$760/tonne) on uncoated woodfree and by APP (some business at US$720/tonne) on coated
woodfree papers.
In China, some transaction prices for coated woodfree papers started to increase slightly after a few months of
stability due to insistence by sellers for prices to increase from their low levels. For example, APP mills such as
Gold Hai and Gold East again announced increases of RMB 100/tonne, and their attitude was extremely firm
due to the low prices over the last few months, which have hurt their profit margins. Although producers and
agents faced money collection pressure at the end of year, they did not lower prices in December 2012 as they
did in December 2011 because most of them had suffered heavy losses in the previous few months when prices
dropped substantially. Still, some other mills did not follow APPs lead and did not raise prices, opting to keep
them stable to enhance their competitiveness. Accordingly, even with the slight increase in demand as companies
plan to send out sales promotion advertising for the two upcoming big festivals, prices were stable. Overall, we
are showing the price for coated woodfree paper averaging RMB 5,100/tonne, same as last month, although
prices of supplies from APP increased slightly.
For uncoated woodfree paper, the prices for high-end papers declined slightly by about RMB 25/tonne due to
the steady demand which prevented prices from falling more. However, for mid- to low-end uncoated woodfree
paper made from mixed fiber prices declined about RMB 100/tonne again because producers and agents were
eager to reduce their inventories in order to get cash returns. In addition, December was nearly the end of the
period when printers build stocks for spring term's textbook printing, and many producers felt it was their last
chance for several months to achieve solid sales of their low-end paper.
Chinese net exports of coated and uncoated woodfree paper both rose in November after a big drop in October. For
coated woodfree paper, net exports increased 8% or 6,000 tonnes due to a 7,000 tonne gain in exports and 1,000
tonne gain in imports. For the year through November, coated woodfree paper exports increased 5% compared to
a year ago, reaching 1.3 million tonnes. Other Asian countries are still the leading destination of China's exports,
accounting for 63% of China's total coated woodfree exports, followed by Europe and Latin America (about 10%
each). For uncoated woodfree paper, net exports increased 27% or 19,000 tonnes in November, compared to an
18% decrease in October. Total exports of uncoated woodfree paper from January to November increased by
14%. Other Asian countries received about 46% of these shipments, and Japan alone accounted for nearly 24%
of total exports within Asia and about 11% of total global exports. The Middle East (15%) and Oceania (11%)
were the other two big export destinations for Chinese uncoated woodfree papers.
Japanese demand for printing & writing paper slightly decreased in November from October, back down to
September's level. Japanese net imports also decreased 10% or 9,000 tonnes due to a 10,000 tonne loss in imports
and nearly flat exports. The decrease in imports mainly came from woodfree and uncoated mechanical papers.
The majority (about 95%) of Japan's coated woodfree imports are from other Asian countries, mainly China
(82%), South Korea (11%) and Taiwan (2%). Uncoated woodfree paper imports from other Asian countries
account for nearly 99% of total Japanese imports, with the top three sources being Indonesia (74%), China (21%)
and Taiwan (3%). It should be noted that the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF) is investigating an allegation
that cut-size papers from Indonesia were dumped into the Japanese market with dumping margins ranging from
RISI
Figure 4
Chinese Woodfree Imports and Exports
Thousand Tonnes
140
Uncoated Woodfree Imports
Uncoated Woodfree Exports
120
Coated Woodfree Imports

Coated Woodfree Exports
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jul--12
Jan
n-12
Jul--11
Jan
n-11
Jul--10
Jan
n-10
Jul--09
Jan
n-09
Jul--08
Jan
n-08
Jul--07
Jan
n-07
Jul--06
Jan
n-06
Jul--05
Jan
n-05
Jul--04
Jan
n-04
7.55% to 15.78%. The inquiry is expected to be wrapped up by June 2013, and if dumping is found, it could
clearly have an impact on the cut-size market in Japan and elsewhere in Asia.
For South Korea, net exports of printing & writing paper declined 18% and 14% in October and November,
respectively. This decline in net exports mainly resulted from the loss of coated woodfree paper exports and
nearly flat imports. Exports of coated woodfree paper declined 14% or 13,000 tonnes from September to
November. The major shipping destination for South Korea's coated woodfree paper exports is the Middle East,
which accounted for nearly 51% of its total exports, followed by Asia (21%) and North America (8%).
Forecast
Our near-term price forecast for both coated and uncoated woodfree paper is unchanged compared to last month.
That is, we are expecting that woodfree prices in Hong Kong will move higher over the course of 2013. In the
first half of the year, producers will be pushing for increases as cost pressures rise and the seasonal upturn hits.
We expect that suppliers will not be fully successful with the increases they seek as buyers will continue to put up
resistance in light of lingering excess capacity issues. We believe that demand is still a little soft and the market
will continue to favor buyers, although we do expect that cost pressures and an improving market balance will
support modest price increases in the first half of 2013. Further gains will occur in the second half of the year
with producers beginning to achieve better margins due to a narrowing in the demand/supply balance, improved
by healthier demand and capacity shutdowns caused by market forces or Chinese governmental intervention. In
addition, a potential rise in freight rates may be another factor supporting higher prices.
Overall, we project prices in the first half and second half of 2013 to average US$818/tonne and US$848/tonne,
respectively, for uncoated woodfree and US$769/tonne and US$794/tonne, respectively, for coated woodfree.
RISI
Figure 5
Quarterly Woodfree Average Transaction Prices in Hong Kong
1,050
1000
Uncoated
1,000
950
Coated
950
900
Uncoated
Coated
900
850
850
800
800
750
750
700
700
650
650
600
600
00
00
01 01 02
02
03
0403 05 0406
05 08 0609
07
07
10
11 08 12
09
13
14
Containerboard
Current Conditions
In December, prices for both kraft top liner and recycled corrugating medium were generally unchanged, despite
some orders slipping up to US$5/tonne from the average market price level. Meanwhile, market activities
remained sluggish toward year end, and related waste paper prices were dropping again.
Overall, we conclude that prices for 125 gsm kraft top liner remained at US$425/tonne in December and prices
for 110 gsm recycled corrugating medium remained at US$410/tonne. In addition, the price of imported virgin
fiber-based KLB was unchanged, averaging US$610/tonne. KLB prices from Russian suppliers remained below
US$600/tonne, but were up by US$5/tonne from November's level. Compared to a year ago, average imported
kraftliner prices were down US$5/tonne in December, corrugating medium prices were down by US$5/tonne, and
prices of recycled liner grades suffered a large drop of US$55/tonne. The poor result for the recycled linerboard
market reflected the weak demand rebound and heavy supply-side pressures from the significant capacity startups that were launched in the last two years. All prices are CIF Hong Kong in US dollars per tonne.
For the two recycled containerboard grades in the Chinese market, demand over the year-end period showed no
signs of a pickup in growth. Moreover, production cuts in small and medium sized containerboard mills over
of the last few months, as well as some reduction tied to the outdated capacity closure campaign, may result in
a smaller projected annual production growth figure for 2012 than 2011, as detailed in the recently published
November 2012 issue of the Asian Paper Packaging 5-Year Forecast. On the cost side, according to the most
recent issue of RISI's PPI Asia, the late December price of AOCC (CIF China) eased to US$200-205/tonne,
compared with US$213-215/tonne in the beginning of the month. Meanwhile, prices for white top linerboard
from various Chinese mills were either flat or moved down slightly compared to the previous month. Specifically,
average prices ranged between US$565-570/tonne during December.
RISI
Figure 6
Asian Kraftliner Imports
Thousand Tonnes
285
China/Hong Kong
260
Rest of Asia
235
210
185
160
135
110
85
60
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
In other Asian markets, price movements were mostly stable, except that Korean mills lowered their prices.
For instance, medium prices in Korea moved down to US$350/tonne, down by US$15-20/tonne from the prior
month's level.
On the supply front, our latest estimates show that close to 5.0 million tonnes of new supply was added to the
Chinese containerboard capacity base in 2012. Moreover, it is reported that Shandong Chenming Paper finally
sold its subsidiary Qihe Chenming Paperboard (with 400,000 tonnes capacity in total) to Henan Jianghe Paper.
The Qihe Chenming Paperboard mill used to produce containerboard grades, but about half of its machines
currently make cupstock. In the newly released Asian Paper Packaging Capacity Report 2012, it is also noted
that Anhui Shanying Group is currently going through a reorganization process. If the deal is completed, Taison
Group, the owner of Zhejiang Jian Paper Packet, will become the controlling shareholder of the listed Anhui
Shanying Paper. According to the report, Zhejiang Jian Paper Packet currently has a total containerboard capacity
of 1.55 million tonnes, while Anhui Shanying Paper holds nearly 850,000 tonnes of containerboard capacity. By
integrating with Zhejiang Jian Paper Packet, the group will boost its total annual capacity level to 2.4 million
tonnes. Without counting the two units that are being installed at present (a total of 1.04 million tonnes to be
launched this year), the owner of both Zhejiang Jian Paper Packet and Anhui Shanying Paper will replace Taiwan
Long Chen Paper for the fifth place in the Top 20 Asian Containerboard Producers list. This may also further
stimulate industry restructuring and merger and acquisition activities in mainland China.
Forecast
In January, prices for recycled linerboard and medium are likely to rebound temporarily, rising by US$10/tonne
and US$5/tonne, respectively. The upward movements will be mainly driven by producers' efforts to implement
price increases from the start of 2013, when some restocking activities may boost demand growth slightly. For
instance, a major containerboard producer is planning a US$10/tonne increase for both liner and medium grades.
10
RISI
Overall, we conclude that January's prices for kraft top liner in Hong Kong will rise to US$435/tonne, while
corrugating medium prices will reach US$410/tonne.
In our baseline scenario, prices for both recycled containerboard grades are expected to show some modest
rebounds in 2013 if input costs reaccelerate and producers take additional downtime to successfully prevent
excess supply from developing. Meanwhile, authorities will further implement policies that boost private
consumption as well as industrial production growth. However, the market is still subject to overcapacity if
downstream demand sees only a fragile recovery and groups of new machines targeting this year for startup are
launched on schedule.
In the first quarter of 2013, we forecast that kraft top liner prices (which are largely weighted toward the
secondary grade of this kind; the premium grade is less popular in the market) will stay between US$425/tonne
and 435/tonne, while corrugating medium will average US$410/tonne. As usual, a certain number of mills are
also planning to implement downtime during the Chinese New Year, which will run from February 9-15 in 2013.
The production downtime is likely to be extended to cope with the subdued demand as well as strengthen pricing
power in the following quarters.
On the capacity side, an estimated 0.9 million tonnes of capacity will be coming online in the first quarter of
2013, including Jiangxi Lee & Man's PM18 (a 550,000 tonne recycled liner machine in Jiangxi Province). The
unit from Lee & Man Paper will be the only linerboard machine to be launched in this season, but the firm will
also place PM19, a 350,000 tonne corrugating medium machine, at the same mill in Jiangxi Province during the
second quarter. Meanwhile, Nine Dragons Paper will finish construction on the two machines at its Quanzhou
base in Fujian Province, which will add 650,000 tonnes of linerboard capacity. The direct competitor in that
province is Fujian Liansheng Paper, which added 450,000 tonnes of linerboard capacity and 350,000 of medium
at its new Longhai base at the end of last year. Anhui Shanying Paper, as mentioned previously, also started up a
550,000 tonne containerboard machine during the same time frame.
Figure 7
Quarterly Hong Kong Containerboard Prices
750
KLB 175
700
Medium
650
K ft T
Kraft
Top
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
RISI
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
11
In the first quarter of 2013, imported kraftliner prices are forecast to rise to US$620/tonne. This indicates some
potential restocking demand, and may reflect the price increases achieved in the US market during the fourth
quarter of last year. There is also an upside risk that the currently low inventories for the US containerboard sector
may lead to another price increase in the next few months if downstream demand rebounds faster than expected.
Boxboard
Current Conditions
In December, prices for 350 gsm coated duplex board in Hong Kong were cut by another US$10/tonne. As the
recycled boxboard market continued to endure the weakest season, average duplex board prices were still subject
to some discounting pressures even though most listed prices were unchanged. Meanwhile, ONP prices settled
toward the end of the year. On the whole, we show transaction prices for 350 gsm coated duplex in Hong Kong
falling to US$510/tonne in December.
Looking into the downstream manufacturing sector, the latest PMI data for December showed that industrial
activities among most Asian economies continued to improve, even though there were concerns that the "fiscal
cliff" -- a package of spending cuts and tax increases -- could drag the US economy back into recession. In
addition, Japan is hoping it will exit the recession in early 2013 by adopting more economic stimulus packages.
So far, Asian policymakers have provided supports to their economies, and will act again if necessary.
CFLP's China PMI remained at 50.6% in December, matching November's seven-month high. Meanwhile,
HSBC's China PMI rose to 51.5% in December (up from 50.5% a month ago), the strongest point since May
2011. A reading below 50% signals a decline in the sector while a reading above 50% indicates expansion. The
official (CFLP) index is based on responses from managers at more than 820 companies in 28 industries, while
HSBC's measure covers more than 420 companies and is weighted toward smaller businesses. The two surveys
have different sample sizes and methodologies, but both indicate that the Chinese economy revved up during the
final quarter of 2012 after GDP growth had slowed for seven consecutive quarters. In addition, authorities will
continue to step up more policy easing to stabilize growth and further boost domestic demand. The latest China
Customs data show that the full-year value of total exports grew by 7.9% last year, falling from the doubledigit growth pace reached in 2011. In addition, the United States replaced Europe as China's largest exporting
destination, which should not be surprising given the chaotic economic situation in Europe for most of 2012.
Japanese manufacturing activity contracted in December at the fastest pace in more than three years, as firms
targeted lowering inventories due to a mild economic downturn. The nation's GDP growth is expected to have
shrunk in the fourth quarter, owing to the sharp decline in exports, a territorial dispute with China and slowing
domestic consumption. Specifically, Japan's PMI dropped to 45.0% in December from 46.5% in November.
South Korea's PMI registered 50.1% in December, up from 48.2% in November and 47.4% in October. It also
showed an expansion in the nation's manufacturing conditions for the first time in six months.
Moreover, in September the South Korean government unveiled a package of tax breaks and provincial
government budget measures worth about $5.2 billion (GBP 3.2 billion). These followed a $7 billion package in
late June for a total value of about 1% of the nation's GDP. The declining inflationary pressures in December also
provided room for further monetary easing measures that will help sustain economic growth.
In the region's other major boxboard producing nations besides China, South Korean cumulative boxboard
consumption rose by 4.9% year-over-year through October 2012, and Taiwanese total boxboard demand shrank
by nearly 3.0% over the same time period. For Japan, apparent boxboard consumption through October of this
year also moved down by 3.8% on a year-over-year basis.
12
RISI
Figure 8
China/Hong Kong Boxboard Imports
Thousand Tonnes
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Forecast
Declines in boxboard prices are likely to pause in January, but resume a month later when the Chinese market is
through the Chinese Lunar New Year (a weeklong holiday which will run from February 9-15 in 2013). Market
demand will slow further as the traditional holiday period approaches, and recovered paper costs seem to have
entered a stable period. On the supply side, some new units that were not put into the market late last year may
launch in the first quarter of 2013 and exacerbate the market imbalances.
In terms of fiber costs, according to the most recent issue of RISI's PPI Asia, the late December price of AONP
(CIF China) dropped to US$180-185/tonne, down US$6-7/tonne from its level in the first half of the month.
Meanwhile, the monthly average price of AONP a year ago was about US$14/tonne higher than its present price.
It should be noted that coated duplex board prices during some months in 2007 were below US$500/tonne when
related recovered fiber prices stood at US$170-190/tonne. After taking into account all of the factors, we forecast
that duplex board prices in January will remain at US$510/tonne.
Our baseline forecast is based on an assessment of the changing demand and supply fundamentals, in particular
the historical trend of input costs as well as new supply set to enter the market during the forecast time period.
As analyzed above, average coated duplex prices are expected to fall below US$510/tonne, as compared to the
prior quarter. The second quarter prices will rebound to US$518/tonne when the market becomes warmer and
capacity growth starts to slow.
RISI
13
On the capacity front, our estimates show that around 2.1 million tonnes of new supply will be added to the
Chinese boxboard capacity base in 2013. For the coated duplex grades, Jiangsu Longheng Paper and Jiangsu
Fuxing Paper are likely to launch their new units (each machine has a total capacity of 300,000 tonnes) during
spring 2013. In the fourth quarter of 2013, Fujian Liansheng Paper may start up a machine that produces either
ivoryboard or recycled based duplex board. Meanwhile, Jiangmen Xinghui Paper will install a 300,000 tonne
coated duplex machine at its greenfield mill in Jiangmen, Guangdong Province. The paper mill is controlled by
a joint venture with Hokuetsu Kishu Paper, a major Japanese producer, who holds a 60% stake.
Figure 9
Quarterly Hong Kong Coated Duplex Average Transaction Price
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
00
14
01
0
02
0
03
04
0
05
06
07
0
RISI
08
09
10
0
11
12
13
3
14
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Table 2a
Newsprint Monthly Summary
US$ per Tonne, Thousand Tonnes
Transaction Prices
Hong Kong (US$ per Tonne)
48.8 gsm
45 gsm
India Imported (US$ per Tonne)
45 gsm
Exchange Rate
Rupee per US$
Unit Import Values (CIF, US$ per Tonne)
Hong Kong
Taiwan
Singapore
Unit Export Values (FOB, US$ per Tonne)
South Korea
ONP Del'd to Asia *
Japan
Apparent Consumption
Net Imports
Production
South Korea
Net Imports
Production
Jan
2012
Feb
2012
Mar
2012
Apr
2012
May
2012
Jun
2012
Jul
2012
Aug
2012
Sep
2012
Oct
2012
Nov
2012
Dec
2012
635
640
635
640
635
640
625
630
625
630
625
630
615
620
615
620
615
620
590
600
590
600
590
600
650
650
650
650
650
650
625
625
625
600
600
600
51.20
49.21
50.40
51.78
54.39
56.02
55.41
55.53
54.42
53.06
54.82
54.65
698
685
689
672
668
668
655
650
654
656
644
634
668
648
639
653
652
639
652
644
642
643
640
634
649
645
644
636
630
625
632
645
198
624
200
628
206
633
206
623
200
624
199
617
187
603
147
604
154
584
180
568
186
186
282
4
278
270
7
263
288
3
285
259
-1
260
281
3
278
271
4
267
265
4
262
284
4
279
271
4
268
276
4
272
258
4
253
80
-46
126
61
-62
123
70
-60
130
72
-53
126
64
-61
125
67
-61
128
71
-56
127
62
-62
124
71
-53
124
76
-59
134
59
-65
124
* Price of ONP (old newspapers), CIF China and SE Asia from the USA.
16
RISI
Table 2b
Newsprint Imports and Exports
Thousand Tonnes
Monthly
May
Jun
2012 2012
Dec
2011
Jan
2012
Feb
2012
Mar
2012
Apr
2012
Asian Newsprint Imports

China
Hong Kong
India*
Indonesia
Japan
Malaysia
Pakistan
Philippines
Singapore
South Korea
Thailand
Taiwan
Other Asia**
TOTAL
2
22
82
1
5
8
4
3
15
0
5
23
19
189
7
21
83
1
5
9
2
4
5
0
10
23
24
194
6
19
91
1
8
6
2
7
10
0
8
23
24
206
12
34
111
1
4
13
4
5
6
0
10
21
24
244
10
29
109
2
1
19
4
4
6
0
8
24
22
237
16
15
100
2
4
13
9
5
12
0
10
19
21
226
Asian Newsprint Exports

China
India
Indonesia
Japan
Malaysia
Philippines
South Korea
Thailand
Other Asia**
TOTAL
1
1
21
1
7
2
55
2
0
89
0
1
14
1
6
2
46
1
0
73
0
1
19
1
7
2
62
1
0
93
0
1
19
1
7
2
60
2
0
92
0
1
14
2
3
2
53
2
0
79
1
1
12
1
5
1
61
2
0
82
Annual
2010
2011
Jul
2012
Aug
2012
Sep
2012
Oct
2012
Nov
2012
12
28
104
1
4
11
4
9
8
0
6
21
21
228
15
27
79
2
4
17
6
6
12
0
8
26
24
226
10
28
116
0
5
10
6
9
9
0
6
23
26
249
10
25
101
1
4
20
3
7
10
0
6
19
27
233
14
25
93.03
10
0
12
23
22
8
22
0
8
37
285
1,385
7
138
225
50
32
140
2
111
279
257
2,947
14
296
1,391
8
120
95
47
35
141
1
97
262
273
2,780
1
1
13
0
6
2
61
3
0
87
1
1
13
0
5
4
56
1
0
82
0
1
11
1
6
1
62
2
0
84
0
1
15
0
4
3
53
2
0
79
0
1
59
2
0
65
1
113
11
177
58
59
117
688
17
0
1,241
15
10
154
19
75
95
685
22
0
1,076
* Based on source country trade data; subject to revision at year end.

** In this table, Other Asia includes Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Macau,
Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, North Korea, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Vietnam.
RISI
17
Table 3
Newsprint Forecast
12 Q2
12 Q3
Transaction Prices
48.8 gsm
625
615
45 gsm
630
620
Cost Indicators
ONP Del'd to Asia *
201
163
Macroeconomic Indicators (% change, year ago)
Real GDP Growth
Japan
4.0%
0.5%
East/Southeast Asia **
3.7%
3.6%
Regional Capacity
Japan
907
907
China
1,015
1,015
Other Asia
1,122
1,122
Total
3,043
3,044
Asian Newsprint Trade
Imports
691
708
Exports
247
245
Net Imports
444
464
12 Q4
Quarterly
13 Q1 13 Q2
13 Q3
13 Q4
14 Q1
2011
Annual
2012
2013
2014
590
600
575
585
575
585
575
585
590
605
600
615
669
674
616
623
579
590
618
636
184
188
192
201
207
213
241
187
197
221
0.1%
4.6%
-0.9%
5.2%
-0.5%
5.5%
0.6%
-0.5%
1.4%
2.5%
1.4%
3.1%
-0.5%
4.4%
1.9%
3.8%
0.2%
3.1%
1.5%
6.3%
907
1,015
1,122
3,044
869
1,038
1,144
3,052
869
1,040
1,144
3,053
869
1,041
1,163
3,073
869
1,041
1,173
3,083
832
1,059
1,178
3,068
3,707
4,239
4,466
12,412
3,627
4,060
4,487
12,174
3,477
4,160
4,624
12,261
3,327
4,235
4,719
12,280
682
254
428
661
239
422
725
257
468
709
251
458
685
265
420
663
248
415
2,780
1,076
1,704
2,727
1,003
1,724
2,779
1,011
1,768
2,849
1,034
1,815
** Includes Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. Weighted by GDP at purchasing
power parity exchange rates in 2000.
China
Net Imports
Production
Capacity
Operating Rate
Japan
Net Imports
Production
Capacity
Operating Rate
Other Asia
Net Imports
Production
Capacity
Operating Rate
18
2009
2010
Annual
2011
2012
4,614
-186
4,800
4,878
98%
4,224
-76
4,300
4,574
94%
3,899
-1
3,900
4,239
92%
3,478
23
3,455
3,832
90%
3,430
81
3,349
3,749
89%
4,689
1,137
3,553
4,770
74%
5,187
1,702
3,485
4,579
76%
2013
2014
4,200
126
4,073
4,060
100%
4,270
106
4,163
4,160
100%
4,347
86
4,261
4,235
101%
3,310
100
3,210
3,707
87%
3,286
45
3,240
3,627
89%
3,199
54
3,145
3,477
90%
3,115
59
3,056
3,327
92%
5,199
1,605
3,594
4,466
80%
5,244
1,552
3,692
4,487
82%
5,397
1,608
3,789
4,624
82%
5,599
1,670
3,929
4,719
83%
RISI
Table 4a
Printing & Writing Paper Monthly Summary
Nov
2011
Dec
2011
Jan
2012
Feb
2012
Mar
2012
Apr
2012
May
2012
Jun
2012
Jul
2012
Aug
2012
Sep
2012
Oct
2012
Nov
2012
Dec
2012
Woodfree Transaction Prices in Hong Kong (Sheets)

835
820
Uncoated (70-80 gsm)
790
760
Coated (128-157 gsm)
810
755
820
755
840
800
855
815
855
800
840
780
825
760
815
745
805
745
805
745
810
755
810
755
China (RMB per Tonne)*

10-30% (Virgin Fiber)
100% (Virgin Fiber)
Exchange Rate
RMB per US$
Japan
Net Imports
Production
South Korea
Net Imports
Production
Taiwan
Net Imports
Production
5,625
6,450
5,575
6,400
5,500
6,300
5,550
6,350
5,600
6,425
5,675
6,525
5,675
6,475
5,550
6,450
5,400
6,375
5,350
6,375
5,250
6,375
5,250
6,375
5,200
6,375
5,100
6,350
5,505
5,400
5,350
5,425
5,485
5,585
5,515
5,365
5,200
5,150
5,100
5,100
5,100
5,100
6.35
6.35
6.31
6.30
6.31
6.30
6.32
6.36
6.37
6.36
6.32
6.27
6.24
6.24
895
145
750
869
118
751
903
148
754
858
130
728
906
127
779
801
77
723
832
96
736
736
94
642
765
98
667
817
119
699
756
75
681
782
100
681
756
91
666
198
-84
282
194
-98
292
213
-75
288
184
-85
269
201
-89
290
188
-87
275
199
-93
292
178
-91
269
179
-100
279
177
-92
269
183
-80
263
171
-66
237
177
-57
234
71
12
59
70
12
57
60
9
51
69
12
57
73
13
60
69
14
55
82
25
58
77
22
54
81
23
58
74
20
54
75
22
53
88
29
60
58
* Includes VAT
RISI
19
Table 4b
Printing & Writing Paper Imports
Monthly
May
Jun
2012 2012
Dec
2011
Jan
2012
Feb
2012
Mar
2012
Apr
2012
China
Coated Woodfree
Uncoated Woodfree
Coated Mechanical*
Uncoated Mechanical*
19
22
12
4
13
17
10
2
22
30
15
2
23
27
14
2
21
29
11
1
27
27
11
1
Hong Kong
Coated Woodfree
Uncoated Woodfree
Coated Mechanical*
Uncoated Mechanical*
9
16
4
2
7
12
3
2
10
13
2
3
8
15
2
1
12
18
2
1
11
16
2
4
Japan
Coated Woodfree
Uncoated Woodfree
Coated Mechanical
Uncoated Mechanical
51
46
48
10
54
58
53
16
51
55
47
15
63
57
43
11
37
43
38
5
37
54
44
14
Annual
2010 2011
Jul
2012
Aug
2012
Sep
2012
Oct
2012
Nov
2012
23
29
10
2
21
28
14
1
21
24
12
1
17
18
9
1
17
17
18
18
330
312
224
24
259
310
167
25
12
15
1
2
8
14
1
1
8
13
1
1
12
16
1
1
10
15
11
17
114
169
58
11
113
169
47
13
36
49
48
12
43
55
52
13
31
43
36
13
31
51
48
13
28
48
47
9
277
460
407
79
416
542
514
114
33
55
37
20
South Korea
Coated Woodfree
Uncoated Woodfree
Coated Mechanical
Uncoated Mechanical
4
21
4
1
5
21
5
1
3
21
4
1
4
21
7
1
4
20
6
1
5
18
4
1
4
17
6
1
4
21
5
1
4
17
3
1
3
19
3
1
4
21
3
1
4
22
4
1
41
293
85
13
45
236
59
12
Taiwan
Coated Woodfree
Uncoated Woodfree
Coated Mechanical
Uncoated Mechanical
13
11
2
2
12
9
1
1
12
12
1
1
13
13
3
1
14
11
3
1
18
15
6
2
16
11
7
2
18
12
6
1
15
11
6
1
18
10
6
1
22
13
7
1
175
158
24
14
197
154
29
19
* Derived from reporting countries exports to destination country.
20
RISI
Table 4c
Printing & Writing Paper Exports
Monthly
May
Jun
2012 2012
Dec
2011
Jan
2012
Feb
2012
Mar
2012
Apr
2012
China
Coated Woodfree
Uncoated Woodfree
Coated Mechanical
Uncoated Mechanical
124
62
25
7
91
68
23
8
125
61
25
6
134
78
38
9
125
77
37
7
139
87
28
9
Japan
Coated Woodfree
Uncoated Woodfree
Coated Mechanical
Uncoated Mechanical
24
12
2
0
19
11
3
0
23
12
3
1
27
15
4
0
29
13
3
0
South Korea
Coated Woodfree
Uncoated Woodfree
Coated Mechanical
Uncoated Mechanical
118
9
0
1
97
8
0
1
104
9
0
1
110
11
0
1
Taiwan
Coated Woodfree
Uncoated Woodfree
Coated Mechanical
Uncoated Mechanical
9
7
0
1
7
6
0
0
7
7
0
1
8
10
0
1
Annual
2010
2011
Jul
2012
Aug
2012
Sep
2012
Oct
2012
Nov
2012
132
85
33
8
107
89
23
8
121
88
22
14
122
106
37
4
91
89
26
5
98
110
35
8
1,075
737
228
69
1,337
880
240
75
33
16
4
0
33
14
4
1
28
15
4
0
27
14
3
0
25
16
4
1
24
14
3
1
25
14
3
1
469
236
396
11
335
185
99
8
106
11
0
1
107
13
0
1
107
12
0
1
112
17
0
2
102
14
0
1
92
13
0
1
86
8
0
1
79
8
0
1
937
68
0
8
1,177
109
0
11
8
7
0
0
7
8
0
0
7
7
0
1
7
8
0
1
6
6
0
1
6
5
0
1
6
6
0
1
136
80
0
7
101
92
0
6
RISI
21
Table 5
Printing & Writing Paper Forecast
Quarterly
13 Q1 13 Q2
12 Q2
12 Q3
12 Q4
Woodfree Transaction Prices (Sheets)

850
798
815
750
808
752
813
762
Annual
2012
2013
13 Q3
13 Q4
14 Q1
2011
2014
823
777
838
787
858
802
868
817
902
862
824
768
833
782
892
845
China (RMB per Tonne)

(10-30% Virgin Fiber)
(100% Virgin Fiber)
5,633
6,483
5,333
6,375
5,325
6,425
5,355
6,475
5,425
6,550
5,475
6,600
5,600
6,675
5,650
6,775
5,933
6,800
5,460
6,410
5,464
6,575
5,600
6,750
5,488
5,150
5,225
5,250
5,325
5,370
5,400
5,475
6,313
5,321
5,336
5,575
6.33
6.35
6.29
6.29
6.27
6.25
6.23
6.22
6.46
6.32
6.26
6.20
Cost Indicators: Pulp Prices Delivered to Asia *

BSKP from Canada
688
633
BHKP from Indonesia
635
622
634
612
659
619
646
649
682
667
716
662
734
667
838
666
655
627
676
649
752
665
0.1%
4.6%
-0.9%
5.2%
-0.5%
5.5%
0.6%
-0.5%
1.4%
2.5%
1.4%
3.1%
-0.5%
4.4%
1.9%
3.8%
0.2%
3.1%
1.5%
6.3%
Exchange Rate
RMB per USD
Macroeconomic Indicators (% CHYA)

Real GDP Growth
Japan
4.0%
East/Southeast Asia **
3.7%
0.5%
3.6%
* Weighted average of unit import values for China and South Korea for bleached softwood kraft pulp from Canada and bleached hardwood kraft pulp
from Indonesia.
** Includes Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand.
China
Net Imports
Production
Capacity
Operating Rate
Japan
Net Imports
Production
Capacity
Operating Rate
Other Asia
Net Imports
Production
Capacity
Operating Rate
22
Annual
2011
2012
2009
2010
2013
2014
20,378
-1,626
22,003
22,976
96%
22,224
-1,479
23,703
25,057
95%
23,708
-2,022
25,730
27,943
92%
25,174
-2,438
27,612
30,148
92%
26,797
-2,446
29,244
31,451
93%
28,569
-2,441
31,010
32,755
95%
9,633
507
9,125
12,037
76%
9,658
110
9,548
11,326
84%
9,729
960
8,770
10,852
81%
9,765
1,296
8,469
10,213
83%
9,770
1,142
8,628
9,863
87%
9,818
1,014
8,804
9,654
91%
11,510
-1,326
12,836
14,944
86%
12,536
-1,244
13,779
16,141
85%
13,042
-1,253
14,295
17,047
84%
13,515
-1,163
14,678
17,464
84%
14,038
-1,548
15,586
18,256
85%
14,725
-1,891
16,615
18,798
88%
RISI
Table 6
Containerboard Monthly Summary
Transaction Prices in Hong Kong

Kraftliner 175 gsm
Kraft-Top Liner
Corrugating Medium
Unit Import Values (CIF)
Kraftliner
Singapore
South Korea
Unit Export Values (FOB)
South Korean Testliner
South Korean Medium
OCC Delivered to Asia *
Japan
App. Consumption
Kraftliner Imports
Other Net Imports
Production
South Korea
App. Consumption
Kraftliner Imports
Other Net Imports
Production
Taiwan
App. Consumption
Kraftliner Imports
Other Net Imports
Production
Jan
2012
Feb
2012
Mar
2012
Apr
2012
May
2012
June
2012
July
2012
Aug
2012
Sep
2012
Oct
2012
Nov
2012
Dec
2012
590
480
405
600
485
405
600
485
415
620
485
430
620
485
435
620
460
420
620
450
420
620
435
410
605
420
405
610
425
410
610
425
410
610
425
410
653
668
543
653
530
641
551
657
514
648
593
651
660
678
588
681
596
671
545
694
689
459
433
229
440
400
241
433
390
235
427
390
230
435
386
229
447
377
224
454
389
209
416
383
180
443
384
191
437
365
220
421
359
225
209
646
5
1
639
657
5
0
652
761
4
-2
759
775
5
0
770
715
5
1
709
735
6
1
728
736
5
3
728
686
7
2
678
727
4
0
722
784
6
2
776
761
5
1
755
315
11
-12
316
311
7
-13
317
324
7
-20
337
327
8
-19
339
333
8
-21
346
331
9
-24
347
318
9
-20
329
317
7
-17
326
329
9
-18
337
331
6
-14
339
124
3
-31
152
146
5
-40
181
143
3
-52
192
134
5
-47
177
156
4
-49
200
145
5
-48
188
153
3
-43
192
135
4
-52
183
144
3
-43
184
146
2
-51
195
187
* Price of OCC (old corrugated containers), CIF China and SE Asia from the USA.
RISI
23
Table 7
Containerboard Forecast
Quarterly
13Q1
13Q2
12Q2
12Q3
12Q4
620
475
430
615
435
410
610
425
410
620
425
410
Cost Indicators: Fiber Prices Delivered to Asia

OCC *
228
193
Unbleached Kraft Pulp **
565
515
218
545
Macroeconomic Indicators (% Change, Year Ago)

Industrial Production Growth
Japan
5.4%
-3.1%
-5.1%
East/Southeast Asia ***
1.4%
0.0%
4.3%

Kraftliner 175 gsm
Kraft Top Liner
Corrugating Medium
Regional Capacity
Japan
China
Other Asia
Total
13Q4
14Q1
2011
2014
620
435
430
615
445
440
610
440
430
615
445
425
659
511
442
610
455
415
616
436
428
628
459
436
218
530
224
540
236
575
245
590
250
600
259
682
219
551
231
559
259
613
-7.5%
7.1%
-5.2%
5.4%
0.0%
5.8%
3.4%
6.9%
3.1%
7.3%
-3.5%
1.4%
0.0%
1.6%
-2.5%
6.3%
2.7%
6.8%
2,560
11,786
5,248
19,594
2,345
12,551
5,165
20,061
2,530
11,984
5,300
19,814
2,545
12,733
5,361
20,639
2,560
13,634
5,413
21,606
2,319
14,191
5,954
22,464
2,530
13,957
4,093
20,580
10,254
44,536
19,803
74,593
9,985
47,321
20,638
77,944
9,954
52,541
22,029
84,523
9,789
56,815
23,089
89,693
Market Balance: Major Net Exporters ****

App. Consumption
2,629
2,662
Kraftliner Imports
54
53
Other Net Imports
-357
-258
Production
2,932
2,867
Capacity
3,420
3,465
Operating Rate
86%
83%
2,576
60
-37
2,553
3,335
77%
2,570
49
-258
2,779
3,514
79%
2,641
49
-343
2,934
3,479
84%
2,747
57
-317
3,007
3,551
85%
2,879
59
-188
3,008
3,741
80%
2,606
52
-258
2,812
3,578
79%
10,334
211
-1,123
11,245
13,181
85%
10,447
215
-962
11,196
13,551
83%
10,837
215
-1,106
11,729
14,284
82%
11,314
224
-1,103
12,193
14,924
82%
146
209
355
140
201
341
180
215
395
185
196
381
158
175
333
172
189
361
656
763
1,419
636
774
1,410
663
788
1,450
753
807
1,559
Asian Kraftliner Imports

China/Hong Kong
Other Asia
Total
2,550
11,567
5,194
19,311
Annual
2012
2013
13Q3
165
205
370
175
183
358
* Price of OCC (old corrugated containers), CIF China and SE Asia from the USA.
** Weighted average of unit import values for China and South Korea.
*** Includes Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. Weighted by GDP at purchasing
power parity exchange rates in 2000.
**** Includes Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand.
24
RISI
Table 8
Boxboard Monthly Summary
Jan
2012
Feb
2012
Mar
2012
Apr
2012
May
2012
June
2012

Coated Duplex 350 gsm
570
570
570
610
590
590
Unit Import Values for Coated Duplex Delivered to Hong Kong (CIF)
From South Korea
584
554
558
563
567
585
From Taiwan
692
502
709 1,239
543
From Indonesia
Unit Export Values for Coated Duplex (FOB)

South Korea
695
691
698
703
698
719
Taiwan
559
546
556
572
579
595
ONP Delivered to Asia*
198
200
206
206
200
199
Japan
App. Consumption
148
151
158
157
155
154
Imports
18
19
19
22
23
21
Exports
1
1
1
2
1
1
Production
131
133
140
137
133
134
South Korea
App. Consumption
60
56
64
60
64
75
Exports
56
63
66
60
66
53
Production
111
112
123
114
124
122
Taiwan
App. Consumption
37
45
45
44
48
41
Imports
3
5
5
3
5
6
Exports
22
31
36
31
31
34
Production
56
71
76
72
74
69
China/HK Imports **
63
74
66
64
74
72
July
2012
Aug
2012
Sep
2012
Oct
2012
Nov
2012
Dec
2012
560
540
530
530
520
510
604
637
601
513
545
516
552
521
443
733
600
187
709
575
147
709
552
154
685
521
180
681
186
186
156
26
1
132
143
22
1
122
156
20
1
138
168
24
2
146
138
72
59
123
70
51
114
76
49
117
75
54
123
48
4
29
73
49
8
30
70
45
4
27
68
45
5
33
73
35
72
Note: Data do not include liquid packaging.

** Data for China/Hong Kong imports are RISI estimates.
RISI
25
Table 9
Boxboard Forecast
Quarterly
13Q1 13Q2
12Q2
12Q3
12Q4
597
543
520
508
Cost Indicators: Fiber Prices Delivered to Asia

ONP Delivered to Asia *
201
163
BHKP from Indonesia **
635
622
184
612
188
619
Annual
2012
2013
13Q3
13Q4
14Q1
2011
518
533
523
528
654
558
521
540
192
649
201
667
207
662
213
667
241
666
187
627
197
649
221
665
Macroeconomic Indicators (% Change, Year Ago)

Industrial Production Growth
Japan
5.4% -3.1% -5.1% -7.5% -5.2%
East/Southeast Asia ***
1.4% 0.0% 4.3% 7.1% 5.4%
0.0%
5.8%
3.4%
6.9%
3.1%
7.3%
-3.5%
1.4%
0.0%
1.6%
-2.5%
6.3%
2.7%
6.8%
Regional Capacity
Japan
China
Other
TOTAL

Coated Duplex 350 gsm
495
4,621
2,182
7,299
531
4,783
2,124
7,438
495
4,897
2,227
7,620
498
5,131
2,240
7,869
480
5,231
2,252
7,963
523
5,260
2,161
7,945
485
5,308
2,292
8,085
Market Balance: Major Net Exporters ****

App. Consumption
726
770
Net Imports
-318
-289
Production
1,045 1,059
Capacity
1,115 1,122
Operating Rate
94%
94%
864
-45
909
1,063
85%
750
-270
1,020
1,133
90%
764
-293
1,057
1,146
92%
794
-292
1,086
1,158
94%
847
-109
956
1,067
90%
758
-273
1,032
1,147
90%
2,993
-983
3,976
4,248
94%
3,052
-963
4,015
4,404
91%
3,155
-964
4,119
4,504
91%
3,263
-1,079
4,342
4,745
92%
194
138
150
171
145
130
950
810
604
501
China/HK Imports
497
4,084
2,175
6,756
2014
210
204
1,997 2,004 1,997 1,997

15,670 17,461 20,519 21,738
8,245 8,646 8,881 9,324
25,913 28,111 31,396 33,059
Note: Data do not include liquid packaging.

** Weighted average of unit import values for China and South Korea.
*** Includes Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. Weighted by GDP at
purchasing power parity exchange rates in 2000.
**** Includes Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand.
26
RISI
Table 10
Bleached Kraft Pulp Monthly Summary
Bleached Softwood Kraft

Japan Average
China Average
South Korea Average
Received from:
Canada
USA
Chile
Russia
Import Volumes
Japan
China
South Korea
Subtotal
Received from:
Canada
USA
Chile
Russia
Other
Bleached Hardwood Kraft
Japan Average
China Average
South Korea Average
Received from:
Indonesia
Canada
Brazil
USA
Import Volumes
Japan
China
South Korea
Subtotal
Received from:
Indonesia
Canada
Brazil
USA
Other
Oct
2011
Nov
2011
Dec
2011
Jan
2012
Feb
2012
Mar
2012
Apr
2012
May
2012
Jun
2012
Jul
2012
Aug
2012
Sep
2012
Oct
2012
Nov
2012
868
806
842
840
797
810
800
749
777
749
679
721
731
660
731
720
656
704
752
666
719
759
675
730
751
710
729
751
677
729
732
664
708
719
633
693
706
624
689
699
631
677
819
855
816
761
802
833
783
762
760
812
697
701
682
766
665
663
675
696
652
651
666
703
654
652
681
701
661
670
687
722
676
687
701
743
779
668
674
748
660
649
669
761
635
633
632
721
625
604
625
701
611
587
646
681
614
598
75
518
35
628
78
517
41
637
65
507
41
614
83
461
40
584
73
634
33
740
74
663
47
783
68
551
37
657
87
630
38
755
71
560
42
673
76
499
42
617
65
451
38
553
66
523
43
632
74
547
36
657
81
568
43
692
216
129
94
65
125
204
162
69
59
142
238
123
91
51
109
200
105
104
73
101
261
159
93
70
157
252
145
134
58
195
241
138
74
56
147
263
137
104
68
183
255
116
115
48
139
206
140
115
45
112
179
109
124
52
89
231
129
100
67
104
244
137
97
61
118
199
165
114
61
152
657
654
644
649
654
613
601
623
570
566
553
551
543
541
542
549
556
559
581
576
581
613
597
609
631
668
622
624
618
628
628
607
618
593
608
607
586
602
596
576
599
603
633
668
661
638
631
726
646
640
568
630
642
647
554
565
546
615
531
547
548
530
561
563
554
543
577
593
573
539
601
618
589
571
616
628
703
582
619
644
610
602
601
618
616
594
578
612
612
583
578
596
599
608
582
599
609
593
55
444
114
614
34
527
142
703
47
547
128
722
74
482
105
660
59
611
104
773
53
629
115
798
42
539
127
708
66
460
120
646
27
454
111
592
62
392
118
572
31
388
124
543
44
481
132
657
55
530
91
675
33
543
113
689
154
41
175
60
184
157
54
292
53
147
172
49
305
47
149
180
61
241
27
152
192
56
311
43
171
202
49
292
55
199
210
55
273
18
151
171
58
234
37
146
137
38
221
46
150
177
56
153
49
137
168
44
189
54
89
155
50
201
71
180
274
33
139
53
177
221
46
272
42
107
RISI
27
Table 11
Bleached Kraft Pulp Quarterly Summary
Bleached Softwood Kraft

Japan Average
China Average
South Korea Average
Received from:
Canada
USA
Chile
Russia
Import Volumes
Japan
China
South Korea
Subtotal
Received from:
Canada
USA
Chile
Russia
Other
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2012
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2008
903
849
851
874
820
826
882
831
838
920
882
880
915
870
888
838
784
808
734
664
717
755
684
726
778
722
747
625
527
577
828
786
788
889
841
854
860
921
847
765
816
910
807
757
829
903
816
821
882
918
867
897
876
914
873
826
792
833
764
745
674
717
657
656
690
721
713
677
726
782
719
695
548
597
524
508
801
837
768
741
845
889
834
822
226
912
120
1,258
209
1,203
122
1,534
225
1,494
120
1,839
220
1,408
128
1,756
239
1,405
118
1,762
218
1,521
118
1,857
230
1,748
120
2,097
226
1,732
117
2,075
909
3,553
562
5,023
783
4,765
540
6,088
860
3,995
503
5,357
903
5,827
484
7,214
451
313
168
150
175
538
341
285
169
201
737
348
189
209
356
688
332
257
169
309
643
351
315
173
280
658
414
255
173
357
713
409
331
200
444
759
389
293
172
462
1,664
1,170
861
648
681
1,734
1,350
1,287
680
1,037
1,858
1,252
839
650
759
2,726
1,446
1,015
724
1,303
724
702
735
701
698
698
723
710
701
719
701
694
636
643
608
554
550
551
606
611
603
711
675
704
478
443
494
727
703
727
696
686
674
677
726
728
737
673
704
712
705
701
733
705
719
673
754
707
720
609
677
648
641
549
558
550
554
596
611
618
571
668
707
686
709
454
480
439
495
709
731
706
721
664
718
689
692
135
1,004
345
1,484
142
1,386
373
1,901
135
1,184
380
1,699
161
1,167
349
1,677
136
1,519
384
2,039
186
1,722
324
2,232
135
1,453
358
1,946
641
3,725
1,429
5,795
523
5,931
1,415
7,869
549
4,412
1,550
6,511
574
5,255
1,486
7,316
475
116
396
106
391
560
174
621
136
410
437
165
582
100
415
529
176
450
129
394
483
145
772
160
479
574
167
844
125
522
518
151
728
102
447
1,897
551
1,564
389
1,394
1,702
596
2,893
526
2,153
1,642
472
2,375
510
1,513
2,009
660
2,425
525
1,697
Bleached Hardwood Kraft

Japan Average
801
China Average
769
South Korea Average
786
Received from:
Indonesia
761
Canada
815
Brazil
784
USA
805
Import Volumes
Japan
137
China
990
South Korea
404
Subtotal
1,530
Received from:
Indonesia
360
Canada
86
Brazil
607
USA
115
Other
362
28
Annual
2009
2010
2010
Q4
RISI
2011
Table 12
Other Wood Pulp and Recovered Paper Monthly Summary
Oct
2011
Unbleached Kraft Pulp

China
659
South Korea
711
Old Corrugated Containers
China Average
269
South Korea Average
326
Received from:
USA
282
Europe/Japan
261
Old Newspapers
China Average
263
South Korea Average
272
Received from:
USA
265
Europe/Japan
265
Asian Recovered Paper Imports *
Japan
4
China
1,911
South Korea
119
Taiwan
50
Indonesia
203
Thailand
52
Subtotal
2,338
Received from:
USA
911
Europe
657
Japan
307
Other
463
Nov
2011
Dec
2011
Jan
2012
Feb
2012
Mar
2012
Apr
2012
May
2012
Jun
2012
Jul
2012
Aug
2012
Sep
2012
Oct
2012
Nov
2012
662
678
633
664
588
619
567
591
561
596
569
595
580
598
552
612
561
615
530
594
525
565
527
548
526
554
261
311
237
280
212
271
214
270
222
270
231
282
231
286
228
277
224
277
217
280
206
245
193
231
196
235
274
253
247
231
223
202
227
200
237
210
244
220
242
224
238
220
234
214
229
208
217
197
199
186
203
188
262
265
239
242
215
219
207
213
209
210
211
220
214
221
214
220
212
219
208
218
197
208
179
192
174
183
263
260
242
237
214
212
203
210
205
212
207
214
212
217
212
218
211
215
208
210
197
202
174
192
168
189
4
2,487
134
45
196
58
2,923
3
2,792
121
47
159
52
3,174
3
1,774
122
73
162
102
2,234
3
2,531
117
87
154
115
3,007
2
2,928
105
64
161
93
3,353
2
2,628
116
59
180
48
3,032
3
2,816
128
68
213
57
3,284
2
2,346
116
77
251
56
2,848
2
2,355
124
74
233
94
2,881
2
2,646
136
80
89
119
3,072
2
2,714
129
78
170
97
3,189
3
2,076
127
74
88
2,367
2
2,570
128
0
2,701
1,194
930
303
496
1,268
1,053
327
527
936
719
205
375
1,242
929
318
518
1,217
1,145
430
561
1,224
920
373
516
1,242
1,055
428
560
1,162
743
424
519
1,160
759
429
534
1,218
903
422
529
1,318
934
428
509
* These six countries accounted for 90% of Asian recovered paper imports in 2009.
RISI
29
Table 13
Other Wood Pulp and Recovered Paper Quarterly Summary
2010
Q4
Unbleached Kraft Pulp

China
665
South Korea
699
Old Corrugated Containers
China Average
244
South Korea Average
328
Received from:
USA
263
Europe/Japan
227
Old Newspapers
China Average
221
South Korea Average
229
Received from:
USA
222
Europe/Japan
227
Asian Recovered Paper Imports *
Japan
10
China
6,138
South Korea
335
Taiwan
127
Indonesia
552
Thailand
242
Subtotal
7,403
Received from:
USA
3,001
Europe
2,134
Japan
995
Other
1,274
Annual
2009
2010
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2012
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2008
656
689
705
718
684
719
648
682
571
600
569
601
536
591
508
559
444
461
619
652
669
704
258
293
266
284
268
289
256
301
216
265
231
399
215
318
227
250
140
182
229
240
262
286
276
241
276
257
280
258
267
246
229
205
241
222
226
205
237
219
152
130
247
212
275
250
240
250
256
266
262
271
253
260
210
214
213
220
205
215
250
267
140
158
214
230
253
262
242
242
260
257
265
265
255
252
206
212
210
216
205
209
259
247
144
138
218
216
255
255
11
6,569
384
150
539
262
7,914
10
6,682
362
135
591
234
8,015
11
6,839
411
169
635
266
8,333
10
7,190
373
141
559
162
8,435
8
7,232
344
224
476
310
8,594
7
7,789
360
204
643
161
9,164
6
7,714
389
232
492
310
9,142
61
24,204
1,307
834
2,080
1,217
29,704
44
27,501
1,122
563
2,285
970
32,484
44
24,352
1,356
569
2,412
1,024
29,757
42
27,280
1,531
596
2,324
924
32,697
3,213
2,348
1,053
1,300
3,289
2,344
1,007
1,374
3,373
2,249
1,259
1,452
3,373
2,640
936
1,485
3,395
2,793
953
1,454
3,627
2,717
1,225
1,595
3,696
2,596
1,279
1,572
11,914
10,092
3,459
4,239
12,318
11,342
4,683
4,141
11,707
9,010
4,193
4,848
13,248
9,580
4,257
5,612
* These six countries accounted for 90% of Asian recovered paper imports in 2009.
Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor provides economic analysis of the Asian pulp and paper market and is written and prepared by Han Yao, Beth Lis, Li Meng and David Katsnelson. Subscriptions
or client service: Call 866.271.8525 (USA & Canada) or +32.2.536.0748 or email info@risi.com. Editorial offices: 4 Alfred Circle, Bedford, MA 01730-2340 USA. Copyright 2013 by RISI, Inc. All
rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced without the written permission of the copyright owner.
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January

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor

In December, although pulp prices increased by US$20-30/tonne, Hong Kong's woodfree

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013

Real GDP, Y/Y % Ch

Real GDP, Y/Y % Ch

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013

Printing & Writing Paper

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013

Coated Woodfree Imports

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013

The most comprehensive

For more information,

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013

Asian Newsprint Imports

Asian Newsprint Exports

* Based on source country trade data; subject to revision at year end.

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013

Woodfree Transaction Prices in Hong Kong (Sheets)

China (RMB per Tonne)*

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013

* Derived from reporting countries exports to destination country.

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013

Woodfree Transaction Prices (Sheets)

China (RMB per Tonne)

Coated (128-157 gsm)

Cost Indicators: Pulp Prices Delivered to Asia *

Macroeconomic Indicators (% CHYA)

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013

Transaction Prices in Hong Kong

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013

Cost Indicators: Fiber Prices Delivered to Asia

Macroeconomic Indicators (% Change, Year Ago)

Transaction Prices in Hong Kong

Market Balance: Major Net Exporters ****

Asian Kraftliner Imports

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013

Transaction Prices in Hong Kong

Unit Export Values for Coated Duplex (FOB)

Note: Data do not include liquid packaging.

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013

Cost Indicators: Fiber Prices Delivered to Asia

Macroeconomic Indicators (% Change, Year Ago)

Transaction Prices in Hong Kong

Market Balance: Major Net Exporters ****

1,997 2,004 1,997 1,997

Note: Data do not include liquid packaging.

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013

Bleached Softwood Kraft

Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor - January 2013

Bleached Softwood Kraft