METHODOLOGY
The next step was to develop a simple spreadsheet based model to produce a
baseline profile of traffic and emissions. This profile was then used to produce
baseline projections for both traffic and emissions based on largely upon
extrapolation of trend information on traffic growth and fleet composition.
A review of the most recent literature concerning the impact of transport
policies and logistics practices on traffic and emissions was then produced in
order to identify potential measures and assess their potential impact. The
results of this review were used to produce alternative projections. These
projections were then compared with those in London main freight policy
BASELINE PROJECTIONS
3.1
Emission factor
(grams of CO2/km)
Pre-Euro 1a
203.2269
Petrol LGVs
Euro Ia
254.1288
a
Euro II
238.3001
c
Euro III
238.3001
Euro IVc
238.3001
a
Pre-Euro 1
242.9466
Diesel LGVs
Euro Ia
246.1223
b
Euro II
240.6000
Euro IIIb
240.4000
c
Euro IV
240.4000
a
Pre-1988 models rigid
581.2651
HGVs
Pre-1988 models articulateda
1273.0359
1988 - 1993 models rigida
571.9273
1988 - 1993 models articulateda
1263.0790
Euro I rigida
684.5428
Euro I articulateda
1801.2594
Euro II rigida
672.5857
a
Euro II articulated
1569.3941
Euro III rigidc
672.5860
c
Euro III articulated
1569.3940
Euro IV rigidc
652.4084
c
Euro IV articulated
1522.3122
c
Euro IV(+) rigid
652.4084
Euro IV (+) articulatedc
1522.3122
Source: a (AEA, 2007), b (AEA, 2005), c adapted from NERA (1999)
Vehicle kilometre figures were then divided by the percentage of each Euro
standard technology within the fleet and then multiplied by the corresponding
emission factors. The resulting emissions profile is shown in Table 2.
Table 2. Vehicle Kilometres, (000) and CO2 emissions (Tonnes/year) in
London 1996 and 2005
Vehicle
1996
% of
2005
% of
% change
total
total
1996/
2005
LGV
Traffic
3308025
76.0
3971975
78.2
+20.1
Emissions
761927
46.4
955399
49.1
+25.4
HGV
Traffic
1041613
24.0
1108297
21.8
+6.4
Emissions
881811
53.6
989634
50.9
+12.2
Total Freight
Traffic
4349638
5080272
+16.8
Emissions
1643739
1945034
+18.3
Source: Vehicle kilometres (TfL, 2008a); Emissions - own calculations.
14000000
12000000
Total Freight
+131%
.000 v/kms
10000000
LGV
+152%
8000000
6000000
4000000
Total HGV
+54%
2000000
20
50
20
48
20
46
20
44
20
42
20
40
20
38
20
36
20
34
20
32
20
30
20
28
20
26
20
24
20
22
20
20
20
18
20
16
20
14
20
12
20
10
20
08
20
06
year
LGV
Rigid HGV
Artic HGV
Total HGV
Total Freight
Total Freight
+109%
4000000
3500000
T of CO2/year
3000000
LGV
+152%
2500000
2000000
Total HGV
+74%
1500000
1000000
500000
20
50
20
48
20
46
20
44
20
42
20
40
20
38
20
36
20
34
20
32
20
30
20
28
20
26
20
24
20
22
20
20
20
18
20
16
20
14
20
12
20
10
20
08
20
06
year
LGV
Rigid HGV
Artic HGV
Total HGV
Total Freight
Figure 2 shows the total amount of CO2 produced by road freight traffic in
London in the period 2006-2050 would more than double under the
assumptions made, largely driven by traffic growth.
Association for European Transport and contributors 2008
This figure was obtained by adding total emissions from HGVs and LGVs for the Greater
London Area (GLA, 2006).
2
The figure of 2.57 million is reported on p. 91 of the plan (TfL, 2008b)
Table 3 shows that our baseline projections are consistent with those found
elsewhere in official policy documents. They therefore represent a useful
comparative baseline situation which could occur if no additional policy
interventions are implemented.
4. INTERVENTION MEASURES
4.1
Potential Measures
4.2
savings are allocated to 10% of HGV traffic in 2010, 30% in 2015, 60%
in 2025 and 100% in 2050,
the same assumption is made for LGV, but in this case are applied only
to 75% of the fleet. This was done as the van sector, because of the
wider range of usage and the high proportion of privately-owned vans
(ONS, 2003, Browne et al., 2004) is less regulated and driving training
schemes are therefore likely to be adopted to a lesser extent.
10
Various sources at national (ONS, 2003, ONS, 2004, ONS, 2006) and London
(TfL, 2008a, Browne et al., 2004) levels were consulted in order to estimate
the likely proportion of delivery traffic in London which could potentially
employ these centres but no precise figures could be found. Information from
these sources were nonetheless used to build the following broad
assumptions for the testing of the impact of this initiative:
5.
This section reports on results of the policy impact analysis wich was carried
out according to the assumptions discussed in the previous section. It is
important to note that the assumptions made remain highly debatable and
were adopted in order to assess the potential of the single initiatives and test
11
what would happen if rather than provide a precise measure of the impact of
the single policy in London.
The following table reports potential impact figures derived from the literature
analysis and the assumptions that were made on five policy initiatives which
were selected for inclusion in this paper.
Results are summarised in the Table 5 where they are compared with the
baseline projections and the 2005 emissions figures which were presented
previously in Table 2.
Table 5. Impact results
Policy
Baseline
Low
Emissions
Vehicles
Drivers
Training
Construction
Consolidation
Centres
Urban
Distribution
Centres
Vehicle
Reception
Points
Relaxing
Delivery
Times
CO2
emissions
2025
%
change
from
baseline
2572156
%
change
from
2005
32.2
CO2
emissions
2050
%
change
from
baseline
4073101
%
change
from
2005
109.4
2147451
-16.5
10.4
2071523
-49.1
6.5
2456409
-4.5
26.3
3767618
-7.5
93.7
2417261
-6.0
24.3
3438529
-15.6
85.6
2478955
-3.6
27.5
3660207
-10.1
88.2
2546320
-1.0
31.2
3929435
-3.5
102.0
2487533
-3.3
27.9
3790067
-6.9
94.9
12
These results may be compared with both the London Freight Plan (TfL,
2008b) and preliminary consultation with freight experts and this comparison
is shown in Table 6.
Direct comparisons with the Freight Plan for all polices is not possible as
assumptions are different and some initiatives are grouped together.
However, it can be observed that the plan generally reports less optimistic
impact figures. This is particularly the case for Low Emission Vehicles and for
the relaxation of delivery times. The figures for driver training are more
optimistic than ours. The plan is clearly also reflective of policies that are
under the influence of TfL/ GLA and what is politically feasible (the plan
reports two impact figures for each policy, according to two possible levels of
collaboration, high or low, between operators, users and local authorities),
whereas this research is looking at the maximum possible policy impacts.
13
Low Emissions
Vehicles3
Drivers Training4
2025
-16.5
2050
-49.1
2025
-11.7
-4.5
-7.5
-11.3
2050
n.a
Experts
Consultation2
2025
2050
-20/50
-30/80
n.a
-3/30
-5/35
Construction
-6.0
-15.6
-5.5 n.a
-1/15
-1/15
Consolidation
Centres
Urban Distribution
-3.6
-10.1
n.a n.a
n.a.
n.a.
Centres
Vehicle Reception
-1.0
-3.5
n.a n.a
-1/10
-1/10
Points
Relaxing Delivery
-3.3
-6.9
-0.4 n.a
0/-40
0/-45
Times
Source: Own calculations and (TfL, 2008b)
1
Figures reported in this table are the most optimistic ones included in the plan, those relying
on a high degree of collaboration within the freight transport sector.
2
This column reports ranges
3
Voluntary adoption of Low Emission Vehicles in the London Freight Plan
4
Fleet efficiency in the London Freight Plan
14
(2)
If the growth in freight traffic continues, and in the absence of further
policy intervention these CO2 emissions may increase further by 113% by
2050.
(3)
A range of potential policy interventions are available for reducing CO2
emissions from freight transport in London.
(4)
However, policy tests suggest that even with optimistic assumptions
single policy interventions cannot deliver absolute reductions from 2005 levels
only slower growth.
(5)
The most effective single development would be through the entry and
success of low and no carbon vehicles into the fleet. Under our assumptions
emissions growth could be held to 6% to 2050.
(6)
However, reliance on technical developments to deliver emissions
savings is hugely risky as such vehicles may not enter the fleet and zero
carbon vehicles would be dependant on a larger and decarbonised energy
sector.
(7)
Even if very low and no carbon vehicles achieve significant fleet
penetration by 2050, emissions may still increase in the presence of trend
traffic growth.
(8)
Interventions that influence behaviour are therefore critical to the
success of carbon reduction measures in the freight sector as in the
passenger sector.
(9)
This will require very high levels of collaboration between planners and
operators. The London Freight Plan represents a significant step forward in
achieving a collaborative approach and developing the policies required.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
for supporting this research as well as Bashir Khan (TfL) and Julian Allen
(University of Westminster) for providing data and information about policies.
The authors would also like to thank the experts who completed our
questionnaire. Needless to say the paper represents the views of the authors
alone and any errors or omissions are likewise ours alone.
Notes
1The Greater London are comprises a surface of around 1,600 km2 and a population of around 7,500
millions (GLA, 2008).
2
These are the amount of pollutant (grams) emitted from a specific type of vehicle, at a given speed, per
km travelled (AEA, 2005).
3
For example, Euro I LGVs are expected to cease their contribution to traffic beginning from 2013, and
in 2025 all vans are going to be Euro IV powered (AEA, 2007).
15
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