RWS Comox Lake Hydrology Final

Technical Memorandum
Comox Lake Water Supply Study

Phase 1-Hydrology Analysis
Prepared for
Comox Valley Regional District
October 2008
Prepared by
Copyright 2008 by CH2M HILL

Reproduction and distribution in whole or in part beyond the intended scope of the contract without the written consent of CH2M HILL is prohibited.
COMOX LAKE WATER SUPPLY STUDY

PHASE 1 HYDROLOGY ANALYSIS
Contents
1.
Introduction............................................................................................................................ 1
2.
1.1
Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 1
1.2
Recommendations ..................................................................................................... 1
Background and Scope of Work ......................................................................................... 2
3.
Watershed Characteristics.................................................................................................... 2
4.
3.1
Comox Lake Reservoir.............................................................................................. 2
3.2
Comox Lake Watershed ........................................................................................... 3
3.3
Water Licenses ........................................................................................................... 3
Analysis of Water Supply Capacity ................................................................................... 4
5.
4.1
Methodology .............................................................................................................. 4
4.2
Hydrology UBC Watershed Model ..................................................................... 8
4.3
Hydrometric and Climate Station ........................................................................... 8
4.4
Drought Analysis ...................................................................................................... 9
4.5
Water Yield............................................................................................................... 14
4.6
Water Demand......................................................................................................... 16
4.7
Storage Analysis ...................................................................................................... 16
References ............................................................................................................................. 19
Exhibits
Exhibit 2-1
Exhibit 2-2
Exhibit 2-3
Exhibit 3-1
Exhibit 3-2
Exhibit 3-3
Exhibit 3-4
Exhibit 3-5
Exhibit 3-6
Exhibit 3-7
Comox Lake Watershed .......................................................................................... 5

Comox Lake Land Cover......................................................................................... 6
Current Water Licenses on Comox Lake............................................................... 7
Browns River and Comox Lake Watersheds Characteristics.......................... 11
Comox Lake Watersheds Average Annual Water Yield ................................. 13
Drought Period Modification ............................................................................... 14
Comox Lake Watersheds Average Monthly Water Yield ............................... 15
Comox Lake Reservoirs Elevation-Storage Relationship ................................ 17
Average Monthly Water Balance Period, 1999 to 2008 ..................................... 18
Average Monthly Water Supply Distribution Period, 1999 to 2008................ 19
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COPYRIGHT 2008 BY CH2M HILL ALL RIGHTS RESERVED COMPANY CONFIDENTIAL

Tables
Table 1-1
Table 2-1
Table 3-1
Table 3-2
Table 3-3
Comox Lake Watershed Yield.................................................................................1

Water Licenses on Comox Lake ..............................................................................4
Comparison of Climate Stations .............................................................................8
Watershed Physiographic Characteristics.............................................................9
Comox Lake Watersheds Average Monthly Water Yield................................15
Appendixes
Appendix A
Appendix B
UBC Watershed Model and Model Calibration

Plots of Drought Annual Precipitation and Water Yield
ii
363908C101_WB102008001VBC
TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM
Comox Lake Water Supply Study

Phase 1 Hydrology Analysis
PREPARED FOR:
Comox Valley Regional District (CVRD)
PREPARED BY:
Lawrence Benjamin, Gabor Vasarhelyi, and Jackeline Luque
DATE:
October 31, 2008
PROJECT NUMBER:
363908.C1.01
1.
Introduction
The purpose of this technical memorandum is to report on the Hydrology Analysis for the
Comox Lake Water Supply Study Phase 1. Since this work is highly technical, the
conclusions and recommendations resulting from this analysis are presented at the
beginning of this technical memorandum.
1.1
Conclusions
Based on the information presented in this technical memorandum, it is concluded that:
The water yield of Comox Lake Watershed is defined in the following table:
TABLE 1-1
Comox Lake Watershed Yield

Condition
Yield, m3/s
Average
30.31
100-year return period drought year (single year)
16.88
Critical drought period (7 years), which includes a 100-year return frequency
25.82
Comox Lake has a storage capacity of approximately 94.2 million m3 between its normal
maximum and minimum operating elevations of 130.8 m and 135.33 m.
For a critical drought period between wet years, only 89 percent of the water yield is
available for water supply due to the limited storage capacity of the reservoir.
1.2
Recommendations
Based on the conclusions of the hydrology study, the CVRD should now proceed with
Phase 2 of this study. The following tasks are required in Phase 2:
Identify potential, future climate change scenarios, and select two extremes (high and
low impact) for use in the analysis and that cover the range of potential impacts.
Estimate the potential impacts of climate change on the water yield.
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Define the reservoir storage capacity required to maximize the water supply capacity of
the watershed for current hydrology, as well as for hydrology impacted by climate
change.
Identify other potential water sources, and determine their supply capacity.
2.
Background and Scope of Work
In 2005, the CVRD initiated a Watershed Assessment of Comox Lake. The purpose of this
work was to identify the major risks to the Comox Lake water source, determine ways to
mitigate these risks, and assess water availability.
A key finding of the Watershed Assessment was that the water supply capacity of the
Comox Lake Watershed is limited by the available, dynamic storage capacity of the Lake,
which is fully licensed for hydro power generation, fisheries habitat support, and domestic
water supply.
Currently, Comox Lake is the main water supply source in the region. In light of major
infrastructure decisions that will be made in the near future, the objective of this assignment
is to review the hydrology of the Comox Lake Watershed and determine its support
capacity.
The work will be performed in two phases. Phase 1 is the hydrology analysis, and Phase 2 is
the analysis of storage capacity, effect of climate change, and other potential water supplies.
The major work tasks in Phase 1 include the following:
Define Comox Lake Watershed
Identify a critical drought period
Estimate the water yield of the watershed during a 100-yearreturn period drought year
using the University of British Columbia Watershed Model (UBCWM)
Define the water supply capacity of the Comox Lake Watershed with the existing
reservoir conditions
3.
Watershed Characteristics
This section defines the watersheds contribution to the water supply for various uses, based
on the water licenses. The Comox Lake Watershed characteristics are presented in the
following subsections. Information in this section is based on the Comox Lake Watershed
Assessment Summary Report (CH2M HILL, 2006).
3.1
Comox Lake Reservoir
Comox Lake was developed into a reservoir in 1912 to provide water for the Puntledge
Hydroelectric Project. It has the following characteristics:
The Dam impounds and controls the water level of Comox Lake.
Water levels on Comox Lake and release of water into the Puntledge River are guided
by the Puntledge River Water Use Plan (BC Hydro, 2004). The water use plan balances
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water use among varying interests, such as electricity generation, fish habitat, recreation,
and municipal water supply.
The surface area of the Comox Lake Reservoir varies between approximately 1,900 ha
and 2,200 ha. The average depth of the lake is approximately 60 m, with the deepest
portion being 130 m.
The operating water level varies between 130.8 m and 135.33 m in summer, which
provides approximately 94.2 million m3 of useable water storage within the 4.53-m
dynamic operating range of the Lake. Winter operating levels vary between 130.8 m and
134.4 m, permitting approximately 20 million m3 for spring freshet flood storage.
Comox Dam is a 142-m-long, concrete, gravity structure with a crest elevation of

137.55 m. Outflow is controlled by two sluice gates that measure 4.27 m wide x 7.32 m
high. The sill elevation of the sluice gates is 128.93 m. The overflow spillway is
15 m-long at 135.33 m elevation. The Dam is equipped with a fish ladder for fish
passage. The probable maximum flood flow is estimated to be 1,500 m3/s, which would
result in a maximum lake elevation of 139.9 m.
3.2
Comox Lake Watershed
Comox Lake drains a 46,200-ha (462-km2) watershed of mountainous terrain supporting

glacial formations year-round. The watershed is largely undeveloped and contains mostly
coniferous forests at various stages of maturity. Forestry is the primary industry in the area,
and there are several forest roads throughout the basin.
Exhibits 2-1 and 2-2 show the streams that contribute to the Comox Lake Watershed and
land cover, respectively. The largest of the streams is the Cruickshank River, which has a
contributing area of 21,561 ha and represents 46 percent of the Comox Lake Watershed. The
second largest stream, the Upper Puntledge River, has a contributing area of 8,996 ha and
represents 20 percent of the Comox Lake watershed.
Two other significant streams, Toma Creek at the south end (2,395 ha) and Perseverance
Creek at the east end (2,241 ha), discharge into Comox Lake, with each representing
approximately 5 percent of the Comox Lake Watershed. Both Toma Creek and Perseverance
Creek are fish-bearing streams. The Perseverance Creek watershed is also the water supply
source for the Village of Cumberland. Direct inflows and several smaller streams discharge
into the Comox Lake Watershed and contribute 8,893 ha, which represents approximately
19 percent of the watershed.
3.3
Water Licenses
Water licenses are typically issued based on the water yield of the watershed during critical
drought periods and the reservoir storage capacity that is available to store water from wet
periods and will supply water during dry periods of the year. Table 2-1 and Exhibit 2-3
show the current water licenses on Comox Lake (BC Ministry of Environment, 2008).
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TABLE 2-1
Water Licenses on Comox Lake
Current Licenses
Purpose
m /s
BC Hydro
Power generation
28.3
82.54
Fisheries and BC Hydro
Fish habitat
5.70
16.62
Comox Strathcona Regional

District (CSRD)
Municipal water supply
0.29
0.84
34.29
100
Licensee
Total
4.
Analysis of Water Supply Capacity
This section outlines the methodologies for drought analysis and for determining water
supply capacity. The hydrologic model and the method used to determine an appropriate
climate station are also described. Complete descriptions are included in Appendix A.
Following calibration of the model, the Comox Lake Watersheds water supply capacity was
evaluated, along with the existing reservoir storage capacity.
4.1
Methodology
The methodology to define Comox Lake Watersheds water supply capacity involved:
Delineating the Comox Lake Watershed (Section 3.2)
Identifying a critical drought period preceded and followed by a wet period
Estimating the water yield of the watershed during a critical period that includes a 100year return period drought year using the UBCWM
Defining the water supply capacity of the Comox Lake Watershed with the existing
reservoir
The UBCWM was used to generate water yield for this project. The model uses precipitation
and temperature data as input and requires calibration. Appropriate watershed and climate
stations were selected for model calibration, as well as for the projects ultimate objective
determining the water supply capacity.
Drought analysis employing the Weibull distribution was conducted to determine the
annual drought precipitation and water yield using the calibrated, long-term precipitation
data and the long-term discharge output from the UBCWM.
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4.2
Hydrology UBC Watershed Model
The UBCWM was developed at the UBC and is widely used in British Columbia to simulate
stream flows from mountainous watersheds. Since the hydrological behavior of
mountainous watersheds is a function of elevation, the model divides the watershed into
several elevation bands and uses precipitation data and minimum and maximum daily
temperatures as input. This calculated stream flow is the combination of rainfall, snowmelt,
upper groundwater, and deep zone groundwater.
The model requires calibration using data from a climate station inside or close to the
watershed and a hydrograph from the watershed outlet. Appendix A provides a more
detailed description of the model and calibration process.
4.3
Hydrometric and Climate Station
Climate Station
Data from the valley meteorological stations may be useful for estimating runoff potential
from the highest mountain slopes. The best data would be from high on the mountain
slopes, but the majority of meteorological data is from valley stations. Long data series are
required to obtain high-accuracy model outputs.
There are four Environment Canada climate stations with data series longer than 25 years
close to the Comox Lake Watershed: Comox A (#1021830), Courtenay Puntledge BCHP
(#1021990), Cumberland (#1022250), and Cape Lazo (#1021320). The locations of these
stations are indicated in Exhibit 3-1.
Table 3-1 provides a summary of the characteristics of the four climate stations and the data
series.
TABLE 3-1
Comparison of Climate Stations
Consecutive Data Series
Station
ID
Station Name
Status
Elevation
(m)
From
To
Total
Years
Missing
Data
1021830
Comox A
Active
26
1944
2007
63
No
1021990
Courtenay Puntledge BCHP
Inactive
24
1921
1964
43
A lot
1022250
Cumberland
Inactive
159
1923
1977
54
A few
1021320
Cape Lazo
Inactive
38
1935
1962
27
A few
Note: The green marks the station used in this project
Climate station Comox A (#1021830) was selected for this project for the following reasons:
Longer data series generate more reliable results. Comox A has the longest data series with
no missing data, while Station Cape Lazo has the shortest data series (27 years, 1935 to
1962) and a few gaps in the data; Station Courtenay Puntledge BCHP has a lot of data
missing; and Station Cumberland has a shorter data series (54 years, 1923 to 1977) than
Station Comox A (63 years, 1944 to 2007).
Distance to the watersheds used for calibration and validation. The model calibrates the
precipitation data by applying a factor to it so that the simulated hydrograph agrees
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with the observed one. To reduce the bias in model calibration involved with the similar
watershed method, it is better to use a climate station that is approximately the same
distance from the watershed used for calibration and the one used for application.
Comox A is at a similar distance from the centroids of the Browns River and Comox
Lake Watersheds (23 and 28 km, respectively).
Hydrometric Station
Nearby hydrometric stations include Browns River Near Courtenay (#08HB025), for the
Browns River, and Puntledge River Below Diversion (#08HB084), for the Puntledge River.
The watershed discharging to this second station includes the entire Comox Lake and
Perseverance Creek watersheds, but flow rates are influenced by controls for hydro power
generation. The Browns River watershed was selected for the purpose of model calibration
due to its similar watershed physiographic characteristics and available hydrometric station.
Exhibit 3-1 shows some of the watershed characteristics for the Browns River and Comox
Lake Watersheds. Table 3-2 compares the characteristics of these two watersheds.
TABLE 3-2
Watershed Physiographic Characteristics
Elevation (m)
From
To
Avg.
Area (ha)
08HB025
100
1,400
858
10,407
0.114
23
140
2,040
970
46,212
0.151
28
Watershed
Browns River
Comox Lake
4.4
Distance to Climate
Station Comox A
(km)
Hydro
Station
Slope
Drought Analysis
Drought analysis was performed using the calibrated precipitation and water yield output.
Two types of statistical distributions, Gumbel and Weibull, were tested to fit the data, and it
was found that the Weibull distribution fit the data better than the Gumbel distribution.
Precipitation over the watershed and water yield were estimated with the UBCWM using
the 63 years of data from climate station Comox A. The annual precipitation and water yield
were calculated from the calibrated precipitation and the hydrograph output from the
model for the period of July 1, 1944 to December 31, 2007.
There is no 100-year return frequency drought year in the historical records; however, the
Weibull cumulative distribution is used to estimate this value in the Comox Lake
Watershed. From an annual precipitation of 1,485 mm, the estimated water yield is
1,157 mm (Appendix B). This translates to an average drought-year flow rate of 16.88 m3/s.
Drought Period
From the computed water yield, a critical drought period was selected for further use in the
storage analysis. The critical period was selected based on the following criteria:
The critical drought period is preceded by a wet year.
The critical drought period duration is longer than 1 year.
The critical drought period includes a year with water yield similar to that calculated for
the 100-year return period drought year.
Exhibit 3-2 shows the average annual water yield for 1, 2, and 3 consecutive years.
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EXHIBIT 3-2
Comox Lake Watersheds Average Annual Water Yield
45
1-Yr Average WY
2-Yr Average WY
40
3-Yr Average WY
Average Annual Water Yield (m3/s)
Average WY-Whole period
35
30
25
20
15
1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
From Exhibit 3-2, the critical drought period selected was from 2000 to 2006.
Modification to the Drought Period

The computed water yield for the critical drought period was modified using a linear factor
to represent the 100-year return period drought year. At the same time, the data was
extended using data from 1999 to reflect a wet year at the end of the period.
Exhibit 3-3 shows the original and modified data.
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EXHIBIT 3-3
Drought Period Modification
42
Original
40
Modified
38
34
Average Annual Water Yield (m /s)
36
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
1998
4.5
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Water Yield
The computed average water yield for an average year is 30.31 m3/s, and the average water
yield for the critical drought period is 25.82 m3/s. Exhibit 3-4 and Table 3-3 show that the
average monthly water yield in an average year, 100-year return frequency drought year
and critical drought period is insufficient to meet water demand.
14
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EXHIBIT 3-4
Comox Lake Watersheds Average Monthly Water Yield
60
Average Year
Drought Period
100- yr Return Frequency Drought Year
Licensed Water Use & Fisheries Pulse Flows
Average Monthly Water Yield (m /s)
50
40
30
20
10
0
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
TABLE 3-3
Comox Lake Watersheds Average Monthly Water Yield
Average Year
(m3/s)
100-year Return Frequency

Drought Year (m3/s)
Drought Period
(m3/s)
January
26.77
16.46
33.35
February
24.53
8.79
13.80
March
23.54
10.68
22.16
April
27.67
19.15
27.13
May
47.92
29.56
39.15
June
52.26
26.28
39.56
July
31.44
14.02
19.12
Month
August
16.00
7.75
8.23
September
11.53
4.75
8.74
October
29.52
34.61
27.72
November
39.68
14.60
37.30
December
32.89
15.93
33.57
Average
30.31
16.88
25.82
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4.6
Water Demand
The amount of water licensed in the Comox Lake Watershed has increased over the past
years. This study includes the major water users (BC Ministry of Environment, 2008) and
pulse flows to support fisheries based on the Puntledge River Project Water Use Plan (BC
Hydro, 2004). These are summarized as follows:
BC Hydro uses water for power generation, which is diverted into the penstock at the
Puntledge diversion dam at a maximum rate of 28.3 m3/s.
CSRD uses 0.29 m3/s, which is taken either from the Penstock by gravity or from the
Puntledge River by pumping, for the Comox Valley Water Supply System.
Federal Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) and BC Hydro use 5.7 m3/s, the
minimum flow to be provided in the Puntledge river between the Diversion Dam and
Browns River, for conservation purposes.
Pulse flows required for the benefit of fish include the following:
4.7
From January 15 to February 15: pulse flows of 12 m3/s, for four 48-hour periods, a
minimum of 5 days apart
From March 15 to April 15: pulse flows of 12 m3/s, for four 48-hour periods, a
From July 2 to August 15: pulse flows of 12 m3/s, for five 48-hour periods, a
From October 1 to October 31: pulse flows of 12 m3/s, for four 48-hour periods, a
Storage Analysis
A storage model was developed to determine the water supply capacity of the Comox Lake
Reservoir, where the input to the model is the water yield for the modified critical period, as
described in Section 4.4.
Model Elements
The key elements in the model are summarized as follows:
Reservoir Inflow
The reservoir inflow is the water yield for the period between 1999 (wet year) to 2008 (wet
year) and the 100-year drought year (2001) in between.
Storage Curve of Comox Lake

Between its normal maximum and minimum operating elevations, Comox Lake has a
storage capacity of approximately 94.2 million m3.
Exhibit 3-5 shows the elevation-storage relationship for the Comox Lake Reservoir
16
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EXHIBIT 3-5
Comox Lake Reservoirs Elevation-Storage Relationship
136
135
Elevation (m)
134
133
132
131
130
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
3
Storage (Mm )
Storage Curve
Max Normal Operating Level 135.33 m
Min Normal Operating Level 130.8 m
Outflows and Operating Controls

The water release is based on water demand, operating conditions, and overflow through
the spillway, and includes:
Fisheries continuous minimum flow of 5.7 m3/s and pulse flows, as described in
Section 4.6
Continuous municipal water supply of 0.29 m3/s
BC Hydro flow according to the reservoir water levels (WSEL):

If WSEL < 130.8 m, then BC Hydro flow is equal to 0
If 130.8 m WSEL 134 m, then BC Hydro flow is equal to 7 m3/s
If WSEL > 134 m, then BC Hydro flow is equal to 28.3 m3/s; maximum operating
capacity
Spillway overflows when the WSEL in the reservoir 135.33 m
Water Balance
Exhibit 3-6 shows the average monthly inflows, outflows, and water levels for the Comox
Lake Reservoir during the period selected for storage analysis (1999 to 2008). This graph
shows the reservoir has insufficient storage capacity; water yield from wet years could have
been stored to supply water demand during dry periods if capacity were greater.
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EXHIBIT 3-6
Average Monthly Water Balance Period, 1999 to 2008
Inflows
Outflow
Lake WSEL
100
140
80
135
130
WSEL (m)
Flow (m /s)
60
40
125
20
0
Jan-99
120
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
18
Jan-08
363908C101_WB102008001VBC

Exhibit 3-7 shows the average monthly distribution of the outflows for the various uses
(overflow, BC Hydro, CSRD, DFO) from 1999 to 2008.
EXHIBIT 3-7
Average Monthly Water Supply Distribution Period, 1999 to 2008
80
Overflow
BCHydro
CSRD
DFO
70
60
Water Supply (m /s)
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jan-99
Nov-99
Sep-00
Jul-01
May-02
Mar-03
Jan-04
Nov-04
Sep-05
The average monthly water balance analysis indicates that the portion of water supply that
is available for hydro power, while providing base flow for sustaining fish habitat and
continuous municipal supply, is largely dependent on the reservoir storage capacity.
From the average annual water yield for the period of 1999 to 2008 (28.48 m3/s), only
25.55 m3/s, or 89 percent, may be used for water supply due to the limited reservoir storage
capacity.
5.
References
BC Hydro. 2004. Puntledge River Project Water Use Plan.

http://www.llbc.leg.bc.ca/public/PubDocs/bcdocs/404112/environment30828.pdf.
Accessed on October 8, 2008.
BC Ministry of Environment. 2008. Water Licenses Query.
http://a100.gov.bc.ca/pub/wtrwhse/water_licences.input. Accessed on October 10, 2008.
CH2M HILL. 2006. Comox Lake Watershed Assessment Summary Report. Comox Strathcona
Regional District. June.
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APPENDIX A
UBC WATERSHED MODEL AND

MODEL CALIBRATION
APPENDIX A
UBC Watershed Model and Model Calibration

A.1
Overview of UBC Watershed Model
The UBC Watershed Model (UBCWM) was originally developed by Quick and Pipes (1977)
at the University of British Columbia. It was developed to predict stream flows from
mountainous watersheds where runoff is a combination of snowmelt, glacier melt, and
rainfall. Dividing the watershed into several elevation bands, the model calculates daily
watershed outflows using daily precipitation and maximum and minimum daily
temperature as input. Since it was developed, the model has been further tested and
improved and now incorporates many user-friendly features, as described by Quick (1995).
Since the hydro-meteorological behavior of mountainous watersheds is a function of
elevation, the model uses the area-elevation band concept. This concept accounts for the
orographic gradients of precipitation and temperature, which are assumed to behave
similarly for each storm. The UBCWM also provides information on the area of snow cover,
snowpack water equivalent, energy available for snowmelt, evapotranspiration and
interception losses, soil moisture, groundwater storage, and surface and subsurface
components of runoff. This information is available for each elevation band and can also be
averaged over the whole watershed. The physical description of a watershed is given for
each elevation band separately in the form of different variables, such as: band area,
forested fraction and forest density, glaciated fraction, band orientation, and fraction of
impermeable area. A schematic diagram representing the UBCWM structure is shown in
Exhibit A-1 (Quick, 1995).
The UBCWM is made up of three major sub-models. The meteorological sub-model
distributes the point values of precipitation and temperature ranges to all elevation zones
within a watershed. The variation of temperature with elevation controls whether
precipitation falls as rain or snow and also controls the melting of the snow pack and
glaciers. The soil moisture sub-model controls the non-linear behaviour of the watershed
and sub-divides the water input (rain and melt) into four components of runoff: fast
(surface), medium (interflow), slow (upper groundwater), and very slow (deep
groundwater). The routing sub-model allows the delivery of runoff to the outlet of the
watershed and is based on linear reservoir theory that guarantees conservation of mass and
water budget balance.
The UBCWM uses the energy balance approach to calculate snowmelt. The physical basis of
the energy equation provides control when estimating snowmelt for the following: forested
and open conditions, clear or cloudy weather, various slopes and aspects of mountainous
watersheds, and changes in elevations. Because the detailed meteorological input required
to drive the full energy balance equations is usually not available, especially for high,
mountainous regions, the UBCWM drives the energy balance with just daily minimum and
WB102008001VBC/363908.C1
A-1
APPENDIX A
UBC WATERSHED MODEL AND MODEL CALIBRATION
maximum air temperatures. In this process, the different sources of energy creating the melt
are estimated as a set of non-linear functions of temperature (Quick, 1995).
EXHIBIT A-1
Structure of UBC Watershed Model (Quick, 1995)
WB102008001VBC/363908.C1
A-2
APPENDIX A
A.2
Model Calibration and Validation in Browns River
The performance of the model with any set of input parameters is evaluated visually and
statistically. The visual criterion involves plotting the simulated hydrograph and comparing
it with measured flows. The statistical criterion involves the use of the Nash and Sutcliffe
coefficient of model efficiency (Ce) and coefficient of determination (Cd), and the percent in
volume difference (DV%). The coefficient of efficiency describes how well the volume and
timing of the simulated hydrograph compares to the observed hydrograph. The coefficient
of determination measures how well the shape of the simulated hydrograph reflects the
observed hydrograph and depends solely on the timing of changes in the hydrograph.
The Browns River watershed was used for the purpose of model calibration. The
hydrometric station, Browns River Near Courtenay (#08HB025), has discharge data in the
following consecutive periods: February 1, 1960 to September 25, 1971 and January 1, 1985
to Present (Environment Canada, 2008). Considering that consecutive climate data is
available at Station Comox A from 1944 to 2007, the period selected for model calibration is
from 1988 to 2003 (15 years). Table A-1 shows the results of calibration.
TABLE A-1
Results of Model Calibration

Period
Calibration or
Validation
From
To
Years
Ce
Cd
DV %
Total
1988
2003
15
0.65
0.65
Comparison of observed and simulated hydrographs are shown in Exhibit A-2. The
monthly average discharges are compared in Exhibit A-3.
WB102008001VBC/363908.C1
A-3
APPENDIX A
EXHIBIT A-2
Observed and Simulated Hydrograph Comparison

Observed
Simulated
140
40
120
80
100
120
80
160
60
200
40
240
20
280
320
10
/1
/1
99
8
11
/1
/1
99
8
12
/1
/1
99
8
1/
1/
19
99
2/
1/
19
99
3/
1/
19
99
4/
1/
19
99
5/
1/
19
99
6/
1/
19
99
7/
1/
19
99
8/
1/
19
99
9/
1/
19
99
FLOW (m /s)
Browns River 1999
RAINFALL+SNOWMELT (mm)
Snowfall+Snowmelt
160
DATE
Observed
140
40
120
Browns River 2000
80
100
120
80
160
60
200
40
240
20
280
320
10
/1
/1
99
9
11
/1
/1
99
9
12
/1
/1
99
9
1/
1/
20
00
2/
1/
20
00
3/
1/
20
00
4/
1/
20
00
5/
1/
20
00
6/
1/
20
00
7/
1/
20
00
8/
1/
20
00
9/
1/
20
00
FLOW (m /s)
Simulated
Snowfall+Snowmelt
160
DATE
WB102008001VBC/363908.C1
A-4
APPENDIX A
EXHIBIT A-2
Observed and Simulated Hydrograph Comparison (continued)

Observed
Simulated
140
40
120
80
100
120
80
160
60
200
40
240
20
280
320
10
/1
/2
00
0
11
/1
/2
00
0
12
/1
/2
00
0
1/
1/
20
01
2/
1/
20
01
3/
1/
20
01
4/
1/
20
01
5/
1/
20
01
6/
1/
20
01
7/
1/
20
01
8/
1/
20
01
9/
1/
20
01
FLOW (m /s)
Browns River 2001
Snowfall+Snowmelt
160
DATE
Observed
Simulated
0
140
40
120
80
Browns River 2002
9/
1/
8/
1/
7/
1/
6/
1/
5/
1/
4/
1/
3/
1/
2/
1/
1/
1/
20
0
1
12
/1
/
20
0
1
/1
/
20
0
11
20
02
320
20
02
20
02
280
20
02
20
20
02
240
20
02
40
20
02
200
20
02
60
160
/1
/
10
120
80
20
02
FLOW (m /s)
100
Snowfall+Snowmelt
160
DATE
WB102008001VBC/363908.C1
A-5
APPENDIX A
EXHIBIT A-2
Observed and Simulated Hydrograph Comparison (continued)

Simulated
140
40
120
80
100
120
80
160
60
200
40
240
20
280
320
02
1/
1/
20
03
2/
1/
20
03
3/
1/
20
03
4/
1/
20
03
5/
1/
20
03
6/
1/
20
03
7/
1/
20
03
8/
1/
20
03
9/
1/
20
03
02
02
/1
/2
0
12
11
/1
/2
0
/1
/2
0
10
Observed
FLOW (m /s)
Snowfall+Snowmelt
160
DATE
EXHIBIT A-3
Monthly Average Discharge Comparison
Monthly Average Flow (1988-2003)
12
Obs
Est
FLOW (m /s)
10
8
6
4
2
WB102008001VBC/363908.C1
AP
R
M
AY
JU
N
JU
L
AU
G
SE
P
O
C
T
NO
V
AN DE
C
N
M
EA
N
AR
M
B
FE
JA
A-6
APPENDIX A
A.3
Model Verification in Comox Lake
Even though there is no observed flow data available for Comox Lake, there is a table
estimating mean monthly inflows computed by BC Hydro based on a computer program
called FLOCAL. These values are reported in Appendix 1 of the Puntledge River Project Water
Use Plan (BC Hydro, 2004). Exhibit A-4 shows a comparison of the flows from the UBCWM
for Comox Lake Watershed using the calibration parameter and the estimated values from
BC Hydro using FLOCAL.
EXHIBIT A-4
Comparison of UBC Model Output with BC Hydro FLOCAL Estimation
Monthly Average Flow (1963-1999)

60
50
Puntledge Use Plan
FLOW (m 3/s)
UBC
40
30
20
10
0
JAN
A.4
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
ANN
MEAN
References
BC Hydro. 2004. Puntledge River Project Water Use Plan.

http://www.llbc.leg.bc.ca/public/PubDocs/bcdocs/404112/environment30828.pdf.
Accessed on October 8, 2008.
Environment Canada. 2008. National Climate Archive.
http://climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/advanceSearch/searchHistoricData_e.html?timefram
e=1&Prov=BC&StationID=145&Year=2008&Month=9&Day=17. Accessed on
October 9, 2008.
Quick, M.C. 1995. The UBC Watershed Model. Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology.
Vijay P. Singh, ed. Water Resources Publications.
Quick, M.C., and A. Pipes. 1977. UBC Watershed Model. Hydrological Sciences Bulletin.
Vol. 22. pp. 258-295.
Quick, M.C., and Z. Micovic. 1999. A Rainfall and Snowmelt Runoff Modeling Approach to
Flow Estimation at Ungauged Sites in British Columbia. Journal of Hydrology. Vol. 226.
pp. 101-120.
WB102008001VBC/363908.C1
A-7
APPENDIX B
PLOTS OF DROUGHT ANNUAL

PRECIPITATION AND WATER YIELD
APPENDIX B
Plots of Drought Annual Precipitation and

Water Yield
For this project, both Weibul and Gumbel statistical distributions were used for the drought
analysis. It was found that the Weibull distribution was better suited for this analysis using
the calibrated annual precipitation and water yield. Design drought annual precipitation
and water yield are shown in Exhibits B-1 and B-2.
EXHIBIT B-1
Comox Lake Watershed Precipitation
WB102008001VBC/363908.C1
B-1
APPENDIX B
PLOTS OF DROUGHT ANNUAL PRECIPITATION AND WATER YIELD
EXHIBIT B-2
Comox Lake Watershed Water Yield
WB102008001VBC/363908.C1
B-2

RWS Comox Lake Hydrology Final

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Technical Memorandum

Comox Lake Water Supply Study

Comox Valley Regional District

Copyright 2008 by CH2M HILL

COMOX LAKE WATER SUPPLY STUDY

Comox Lake Watershed .......................................................................................... 5

COMOX LAKE WATER SUPPLY STUDY

Comox Lake Watershed Yield.................................................................................1

UBC Watershed Model and Model Calibration

Comox Lake Water Supply Study

Comox Valley Regional District (CVRD)

Lawrence Benjamin, Gabor Vasarhelyi, and Jackeline Luque

October 31, 2008

Based on the information presented in this technical memorandum, it is concluded that:

Comox Lake Watershed Yield

100-year return period drought year (single year)

Critical drought period (7 years), which includes a 100-year return frequency

Estimate the potential impacts of climate change on the water yield.

COMOX LAKE WATER SUPPLY STUDY

Background and Scope of Work

Define Comox Lake Watershed

Identify a critical drought period

Comox Lake Reservoir

COMOX LAKE WATER SUPPLY STUDY

Comox Dam is a 142-m-long, concrete, gravity structure with a crest elevation of

Comox Lake Watershed

Comox Lake drains a 46,200-ha (462-km2) watershed of mountainous terrain supporting

COMOX LAKE WATER SUPPLY STUDY

Fisheries and BC Hydro

Comox Strathcona Regional

Municipal water supply

Analysis of Water Supply Capacity

Delineating the Comox Lake Watershed (Section 3.2)

Identifying a critical drought period preceded and followed by a wet period

COMOX LAKE WATER SUPPLY STUDY

Hydrology UBC Watershed Model

Hydrometric and Climate Station

Courtenay Puntledge BCHP

Note: The green marks the station used in this project

COMOX LAKE WATER SUPPLY STUDY

The critical drought period is preceded by a wet year.

The critical drought period duration is longer than 1 year.

COMOX LAKE WATER SUPPLY STUDY

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COMOX LAKE WATER SUPPLY STUDY

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COMOX LAKE WATER SUPPLY STUDY

Average Annual Water Yield (m3/s)

Average WY-Whole period

Modification to the Drought Period

COMOX LAKE WATER SUPPLY STUDY

Average Annual Water Yield (m /s)

COMOX LAKE WATER SUPPLY STUDY

Average Monthly Water Yield (m /s)

100-year Return Frequency

COMOX LAKE WATER SUPPLY STUDY

Storage Curve of Comox Lake

COMOX LAKE WATER SUPPLY STUDY

Max Normal Operating Level 135.33 m

Min Normal Operating Level 130.8 m

Outflows and Operating Controls

Continuous municipal water supply of 0.29 m3/s

BC Hydro flow according to the reservoir water levels (WSEL):

Spillway overflows when the WSEL in the reservoir 135.33 m