AbstractIt is well known that no uniform prediction approaches were obtained regarding ground water level, though
the neural network and some other so-called artificial intelligence methods consistently provide the smallest uncertainty
and different medians warranting further research on their
abilities. In the present paper, the lower reaches of Tarim
River is taken as the study area, a grey correlation analysis and
cloud generator (GCA-CG) based groundwater level prediction
model is proposed. The most important characteristic feature
of the novel model is that the observation data with uncertainty
is taken into account. First of all, based on the GCA theory, the
most important influencing indicator of groundwater level is
selected. And then, the CG of knowledge reasoning is applied to
predict the groundwater level. Finally, a numerical experiment
based on the historical observation data is performed to verify
the presented ground water level prediction model, which
shows us that the fitting precision is 91.09% before water
transportation and 87.84% after the water transportation.
From the theoretic foundation and experiment results, we can
see that the model could be widely used in other systems with
uncertainty.
Keywords-Grey Correlation Analysis (GCA); Cloud Generator (CG); Groundwater Level Prediction; Water Salinity;
Tarim River Component;
I. I NTRODUCTION
The 1321-kilometer Tarim River runs from west to east
along the northern edge of the Taklimakan Desert, reaches at
Taitema Lake finally. This river is the most important water
resources in semi-arid Xinjiang province in west north of
China, with over 8 million people living in oases along
its banks and in an alluvial plain downstream. However,
with the increasing desertification, due to excessive water
exploitation and use for irrigation, industrial and living
consumption in the upper and middle reaches of Tarim
River, its downstream, which extends further down from the
Daxihaizi Reservoir, has become completely dry ever since
1972. As a consequence, the lower reach of Tarim River
This work was partially supported by the Grant from National Key
Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, No. 2007CB714107),
NSFC of China (No. 50679098), the Scientific Research Foundation for
the Returned Overseas Chinese Scholars, State Education Ministry, and
the Talent Recruitment Foundation of Huazhong University of Science and
Technology.
II. M ETHODOLOGY
Due to historical reasons, most sources have only limited
amounts of statistical records. And these limited amounts of
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: U [0, 1],
r(i0 ) =
x U, x (x).
1X
(i0 ) (j).
n j=1
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Figure 1.
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p(i) = e 2Enna2 ;
Ennb = randn(1) Heb + Enb;
if a(i) < Exa then
p
b(i) = Exb 2 log(p(i)) Ennb;
else
p
b(i) = Exb + 2 log p(i) Ennb;
end
end
end
function [bE x, bE n, bH e] = back cloud(x);
bE x = mean(x);
p
bE n = p
mean(|x b Ex|) /2;
bH e = var(x) b En2 ;
Algorithm 1: CG Prediction
Table I
THE GROUNDWATER LEVEL AND SALINITY BEFORE &
AFTER WATER TRANSPORTATION AT YINGSU SECTION
Distance
to
River (m)
150
250
350
450
750
III. EXPERIMENTS
According to observed sample analysis of groundwater
level and salinity variation in lower reaches of Tarim River,
Zhang (2003) made a grey correlation analysis on chemical
elements of groundwater and groundwater level before and
after surface ecological water transportation. The results
indicated that correlation between groundwater salinity and
groundwater level was highest with correlation degree of
0.863 after water transportation, which reflected that the
water transportation had much influence to the change of
groundwater salinity. The data for this study were taken
from the tables of the groundwater level and water quality table before/after water transportation at Yingsu section in [1], which consists of 5 entries of field observed
distance to river, groundwater lever, PH value, Salinity,
HCO3 , Cl , SO4++ , Ca++ , M g ++ , N a+ , K + . We scissor
the part of the dataset as our prediction model input listed
in Table I, and the prediction results are listed in Table II.
Before
Groundwater
lever (m)
5.14
5.39
5.36
5.81
7.05
Transp.
Salinity
1.44
1.485
1.52
3.53
2.765
After
Groundwater
lever (m)
3.16
3.57
4.58
5.42
6.8
Transp.
Salinity
1.365
1.446
1.642
2.645
2.855
Table II
C OMPARISON OF O BSERVED VALUE WITH F ITTING VALUE
Distance
to
River (m)
150
250
350
450
750
Before
Observed
lever (m)
5.14
5.39
5.36
5.81
7.05
Transp.
Fitting
lever (m)
5.68
5.23
5.14
6.56
6.20
After
Observed
lever (m)
3.16
3.57
4.58
5.42
6.8
Transp.
Fitting
lever (m)
3.1
3.14
4.04
5.76
5.92
IV. C ONCLUSION
This paper focused on the ground water lever prediction
of without solving the Richards equation, instead of the
combination GCA and CG theory. A novel prediction model
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