Resource Paper For HDM-4 NMT Modeling Workshop

January 10, 1996 15:30 - 17:30

S6-001 (6F), 1750 Pennsylvania Avenue
Prepared by PADECO
BACKGROUND
The Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Model (HDM) developed by the World
Bank has been widely used to analyze the economic consequences of road projects.
The current version of the model (HDM-III) was released in 1987 (Watanatada et al.,
1987) and has been used in over 60 countries. HDM-III focuses on pavement
performance over time, the effect of maintenance activities on road characteristics, and
the effect of pavement condition on vehicle operating costs (VOCs). The experience
with model applications up to date has proven the usefulness of this systematic
approach, but it has also indicated limitations of the model and the need for refinement
(see, e.g., Hoban, 1987; Bennett, 1994). One of the important areas requiring
refinement is the inclusion of variables relating to non-motorized road users.
Non-motorized traffic (NMT) such as pedestrians, bicycles, cycle-rickshaws, and animal
carts are essential means of moving passengers and goods in many Asian countries,
and in some regions their numbers are increasing (PADECO, 1993). As with the
majority of past transport planning and road appraisal studies, the existing HDM model
does not include NMT explicitly within its technical relationships. It is preferable,
however, to include NMT in the economic analysis of road projects (e.g., with the HDM
model) for at least the following reasons:
- The presence of NMT can influence the speed and capacity of
motorized traffic,
thereby affecting the operating costs of motorized vehicles (VOCs).
- Road improvements influence the costs and benefits of not only motorized road users
but also non-motorized road users.
- NMT-related road improvements allow NMT to travel more safely and reduce
interference with motorized traffic (MT), therefore engendering additional benefits, which
although not evaluated by the existing HDM models, can be estimated by explicitly
considering NMT in the modeling process.
In an effort to extend HDM's scope and refine its technical relationships, the
International Study of Highway Development and Management Tools (ISOHDM) was
initiated in 1993 with support from the Overseas Development Administration (ODA) of
the United Kingdom, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Swedish National Road
Administration (SNRA), the World Bank, and most recently, the Japanese Ministry of
Construction. This study, which has been made possible through World Bank financing,
is part of this collaborative effort.
NMT MODELING ISSUES
The HDM analysis adopts the following four main steps in evaluating costs and benefits:
1. Estimate traffic volume on each link for every year from the base year to the target
year.

2. Calculate costs for road construction and improvements (in reference to the
estimated traffic volume), and changed road characteristics.
3. Predict road deterioration and estimate costs of maintenance work in terms of
existing pavement conditions, maintenance standards, traffic loading, and climatological
conditions.
4. Calculate vehicle operating costs in terms of geometric standards, surface type, and
conditions.
In the process of integrating NMT in these analyses, it is necessary to address the
following questions:
- What types of NMT are common in the countries where the HDM models are to be
applied? What should be the criteria in choosing representative NMT categories in
HDM analysis? What is the most appropriate categorization of NMT?
- What are the NMT-related road improvements that influence NMT user costs and
benefits? What are the impacts of these improvements and what is their significance in
overall cost/benefit analysis?
- Does NMT contribute to pavement deterioration? Do we need to model this impact in
HDM-4? If so, how can we model this relationship?
- How does NMT influence the operating costs of MT? How can this relationship be
modeled? Are the operating costs of NMT itself significant? If so, how can we
standardize the measurement for different types of NMT in different environments? Are
the operating costs of NMT influenced by road construction and improvements? If so,
what would be the relationships and variables in modeling this effect?
It is important to note that the integration of NMT into the analysis should be made
without increasing the number of parameters and the complexity of HDM model too
much. The model, however, should capture the main components of costs and benefits,
which have been neglected in the applications.
Based on the background and NMT modeling issues presented above, the objectives of
this study are to:
evaluate and recommend categorization options for NMT and related road
improvements within the analytical framework of the HDM-4 model;
- identify NMT-related variables and relationships within the HDM-4 framework; and
- identify issues regarding NMT data collection and model calibration.
The identified parameters should be suitable for the measurement of changes in travel
time, vehicle operating costs, and accident costs, depending on changes in
characteristics of roads, shoulders, paths, and traffic. They should also be compatible
with the proposed structure and analytical framework of the new HDM model under
development.
The term "non-motorized transport (NMT)" is used in this paper to describe slow-moving
modes of transport (traffic) without motorized propulsion systems. This category of road
users includes pedestrians, bicycles, cycle-rickshaws, handcarts, and animal carts. The
term "non-motorized vehicle (NMV)," on the other hand, is used to describe NMT other
than pedestrians. The term "slow-moving transport (SMT)" or "slow-moving road users
(SMU)" is used to include vehicles such as farm tractors, which although they are

motorized, in terms of operating performance resemble more closely non-motorized

vehicles than motorized vehicles.
NMT REPRESENTATION
In HDM-III, the user can define up to nine vehicle groups to represent the fleet
composition under study. Each of these groups must be related to standard
representative vehicles and vehicle operating cost (VOC) relationships derived from field
studies. At present, the classification system does not include NMT and no default
information relating to NMT attributes is provided within the model.
The new vehicle classification system for HDM-4 proposed by Kerali et al. (1994) adopts
a flexible approach in which a vehicle grouping system can be specified by model users.
This framework was recommended to suit the needs of many countries and to satisfy all
analytical requirements in the new HDM system. The paper also suggests the inclusion
of a non-motorized vehicle category in addition to the conventional motorized vehicle
category. Attributes of the representative vehicles for corresponding vehicle groups are
to be provided by the system and/or by users.
At the time this classification system was proposed, it was anticipated that the operating
costs of NMT would not be critical and therefore VOCs would be calculated only for
motorized vehicles. In other words, NMTs were included only because of their influence
on the performance of motorized vehicle and road accident rates in general. However,
as discussed earlier, it is preferable to consider non-motorized vehicles in every aspect
of the analysis, and therefore the representation of NMT should be worked out
accordingly.
The representation of NMT depends on the structure of analytical models with which the
costs and benefits of different types of transport modes are evaluated. The following
relationships may be considered where NMT parameters are incorporated:
-

NMT impact on MT operating cost;

NMT operating cost;
NMT impact on MT speed-flow relationships;
speed-flow relationship of NMT traffic;
additional pavement costs (including costs for shoulders) due to NMT usage; and
impact of NMT-related improvements on safety.

Analysis of speed-flow relationships concerns the performance (such as speeds) and

physical sizes of NMT. VOC calculation involves distinguishing by usage type (e.g.,
private or commercial use, passenger or freight use). In the case of animal carts, the
category may have to relate to the type of animal because of differing average lives and
economic characteristics. In addition to the above-mentioned factors, the frequencies
that certain types of NMT are observed in different countries should be reflected in the
choice of representative NMT types. If an NMT type is peculiar to one particular
country, or its numbers relatively small in all countries, it can be excluded from the
standard NMT representation scheme in HDM-4. Jinrikisha, for example, are rarely
seen except in Calcutta; or, to take another example, bicycles with trailers in Cambodia
are not found outside of Cambodia. These types of vehicles may be excluded from

NMT representation in HDM-4. On the other hand, although they are motorized,
vehicles such as farm tractors are widely used to carry farm products. Their operational
characteristics resemble more closely those of non-motorized vehicles than those of
motorized vehicles, and therefore it is more convenient to include them in a group called
"slow-moving road users (SMU)," which also include NMT.
Based on the above discussion, a standard SMU representation in the HDM-4 model
can be set as follows:
-

pedestrians;
bicycles;
cycle-rickshaws;
animal carts; and
farm tractors.

For each of the above categories, the following physical and operational characteristics
may be relevant in the NMT modeling process.
-

average speed;
vehicle width;
vehicle length;
number of wheels;
average number of passengers; and
average weight of load.

At the traffic counting stage, the following classification is recommended in considering

the information requirement in NMT operating cost analyses.
-

pedestrian;
pedestrian with freight;
bicycle;
bicycle with passenger;
bicycle with freight;
cycle-rickshaw;
cycle-rickshaw with passenger;
cycle-rickshaw with freight;
horse cart;
horse cart with passenger;
horse cart with freight;
ox cart;
ox cart with passenger;
ox cart with freight;
farm tractor; and
farm tractor with freight.

The above classification scheme can be recommended as a standard, but the model
structure should allow users to add other types of NMT depending on the study area.
NMT AND ROAD IMPROVEMENTS

Changes in road characteristics not only affect motorized road users but also nonmotorized road users, with some effects positive and others negative. Improvement of
shoulders and provision of NMV lanes and paths, for example, improves the flow and
safety of MV and NMV traffic. Introduction of access control, on the other hand,
improves the MT traffic flow, but reduces the convenience of NMT users. Road
improvements with significant impacts on NMT user costs and benefits include the
following:
-

NMV lanes and paths;

shoulders;
pedestrian facilities;
improvements in geometry, surface conditions, and structure;
parking/waiting areas; and
other improvements.

NMV Lanes and Paths: There are several types of NMV lanes and paths, as identified
in the NMV inventory study mentioned earlier (PADECO, 1993b):
- NMV lanes designated by pavement markings and within the highway right-of-way;
- NMV lanes physically separated from MV traffic by barriers and within the highway
right-of-way;
- NMV paths within an independent right-of-way; and
- streets on which MVs are banned.
Allocation of independent rights-of-way is the most efficient approach for separating
non-motorized and motorized traffic. Physical separation is generally more effective
than pavement markings if the NMT facilities provided are appropriate in terms of
capacity and attractiveness; if the provided facilities are not adequate, NMT will overflow
onto the MT roadway. Provision of service roads is another way of transferring NMT
from the main carriageway on to the urban arterial. NMV lanes/paths segregate NMVs
from MVs and reduce conflicts between them. These facilities will improve the flow and
comfort of non-motorized road users and improve the flow of motorized traffic. Garder
(1995) points out that the provision of marked bicycle lanes and paved shoulders as well
as the building of separate lanes will improve the perceived safety of NMV users.
Shoulders: Generally, the HDM model is applied to cases where improvement of
shoulders are more practical than newly constructing NMV lanes and paths. Paved
shoulders with a width of 1.5 m or wider can be effectively used by pedestrians and
slow-moving vehicles. If shoulder surfaces are smooth and sufficiently wide, there is a
better chance of their being utilized by NMT, with less resulting intrusion onto the MT
roadway. The surface condition of the shoulder also affects the speed and service level
of NMT passenger and freight transport, which in turn influences the operating costs of
this traffic. Shoulder improvements increase safety and the maneuverability of NMVs,
which improves the MV flow.
Pedestrian Facilities: Pedestrian facilities such as sidewalks, zebra crossings, and
pedestrian bridges improve the flow and safety of vehicular traffic in urban and nearurban areas. Also, as mentioned earlier, shoulders can effectively serve as pedestrian
facilities in near-urban and rural areas. In Japanese cities, combined pedestrian and

bicycle paths are widely used, although it may not be recommendable elsewhere. It is
important that such pedestrian facilities be free from street vendors or illegal
settlements. Unless adequately installed, zebra crossings and pedestrian bridges can
reduce the convenience of pedestrians whose travel distance becomes longer. Refuge
islands are another type of facility aimed at improving pedestrian safety on wide streets.
Improvements in Geometry, Surface Conditions, and Structure:
Geometric
characteristics of NMV lanes such as width and alignment are expected to influence
NMV speed-flow relationships. If the widths of NMV lanes are narrow, NMVs are likely
to spill over on to the MV carriageway and increase conflicts, although the interaction
mechanism has not been well researched.
Surface conditions of NMT facilities can affect NMV operating costs. While pedestrians
can use earth or gravel roads when the roads are dry, they prefer paved surfaces with
colored asphalt or blocks. The roughness of the road surface is one of the major factors
influencing the operational characteristics of NMT. Experience in Bangladesh (BCEOM
et al., 1994a; BCEOM et al., 1994b) indicates that transport charges decreased
significantly as a result of feeder road improvements to bitumen standards; within one
year, average passenger charges dropped by 18.7 percent and average cargo charges
by 23.3 percent. The most significant decreases in charges were for cycle rickshaws
and rickshaw vans. In Uganda, it has been reported that the charges for commercial
freight transport by bicycle depend on road condition (Calvo, 1994).
Deterioration of road surface depends on the strength of pavement. If the pavements
used for shoulders are not strong enough, they will deteriorate faster as a result of
heavy vehicles occasionally running on the shoulders to allow faster vehicles to
overtake. Shoulders exposed in this condition easily develop potholes, a condition that
makes it difficult for slow-moving vehicles to effectively use the shoulders. Litman
(1994) points out that small and inexpensive improvements such as pothole filling,
paving road shoulders, installing curb cuts, paving paths, and smoothing railway
crossings would result in significant benefits for bicycle users.
Parking and Waiting Areas: Provision of off-street bicycle parking and cycle-rickshaw
waiting areas can effectively reduce traffic conflicts. Bicycle parking, for instance, is
necessary at railway stations, bus stops, and residential and commercial
establishments. When these establishments are located close to arterials, illegally
parked bicycles sometimes interfere with pedestrian and vehicular traffic, which
underscores the importance of off-street bicycle parking. Japan, the People's Republic
of China, and India are advanced in providing off-street bicycle parking facilities at these
locations.
Cycle-rickshaws tend to wait for passengers in the vicinity of intersections, markets, and
transport terminals. Provision of cycle-rickshaw stands can reduce traffic conflicts
originating from an over-concentration of standing cycle-rickshaws. Such facilities are
successfully provided in some cities in Indonesia and India (PADECO, 1993b). If
parking facilities/waiting areas are appropriately provided, the practical capacity and the
average speed of motorized traffic can increase. It is therefore important that this type
of NMV facility be incorporated in the economic analysis of road improvements.

Other Improvements: The road improvements targeted for MT users can negatively
influence the benefit of NMT users. NMT users may have to travel longer distance by
introducing, for example, access control aimed at improving MT flow. Increased MT
traffic induced by street widening could sever traditional NMT paths, and NMT users
may have to spend more time crossing the street. Introduction of wider bus stops (bays)
can disturb NMV flows unless they are carefully designed. Economic analysis should
consider these costs if they cannot be avoided.
Summary of Road Improvements Relevant to NMT User Costs and Benefits:
In summary, the road improvements directly relevant to NMT user costs and benefits
can be listed as follows:
-

installation of NMV lane (shoulder) by marking;

installation of NMV lane (shoulder) by physical separator;
installation of NMV exclusive lane or path;
NMT lane (shoulder) widening;
installation of NMV parking/waiting areas;
surface condition improvement;
implementation of access control; and
grade improvement.

These improvements will influence at least the following performance characteristics of

NMT, which affect NMT user costs and benefits:
-

travel speed and time;

travel distance;
wear and tear of vehicles (and perhaps the shoes and clothing of pedestrians);
fares/user charges;
degree of conflicts with MT traffic; and
accident rate.

Both road improvements and NMT performance will be specified in more detail in the
process of establishing technical relationships based on field observations and analysis.
NMT IMPACT ON THE MT SPEED-FLOW RELATIONSHIPS
The impacts of NMT on traffic flow have been traditionally assessed by converting NMT
traffic into passenger car units (PCUs), also known as passenger car equivalents
(PCEs), which are then added to the PCUs for motorized traffic (e.g., CRRI, 1982). This
approach assumes that MT and NMT form a combined stream of "mixed traffic", whose
PCU-speed relationship may be meaningfully analyzed. But it is widely accepted that
PCU values change depending on traffic composition, number of lanes, and the degree
and length of gradients; therefore, it is difficult to obtain standard values applicable
across different road and traffic conditions.
Another approach takes the view that MT and NMT do not really mix because of
difference in their cruising speeds and other operational and physical characteristics;
instead, this approach endeavors to model the impacts of NMT on MT flows by treating

the two streams separately. Within the existing HDM-III applications there are two
modeling methods for assessing NMT impacts on MT speed-flow relationship: (i) the
mechanistic approach; and (ii) the aggregate approach.
Mechanistic Approach: The mechanistic approach typically utilizes the concept of
"effective capacity," which was introduced in an HDM application in Indonesia by Hoff &
Overgaard (1992). "Effective capacity" is a function of "effective width," which varies
depending on the presence of NMT on shoulders and the carriageway.
The major steps for calculating "effective capacity" are as follows:
1. examine shoulder condition, and determine whether the shoulder is usable by NMVs;
2. calculate the road width occupied by NMVs;
3. if this width is greater than the total usable shoulder width, deduct the residual width
from the carriageway width to give effective pavement width for motorized traffic; and
4. calculate "effective capacity" by using calibrated equations that are a function of the
effective width obtained in 3.
The usable shoulder width, defined as the maximum shoulder width usable by NMT,
depends on the physical condition of the shoulders. The criteria incorporated by Hoff &
Overgaard (1992) for determining whether shoulders are usable or not include: shoulder
width, pavement type (soft or hard), surface condition (e.g., smooth, minor rutting), and
shoulder elevation (e.g., higher than road surface, level, below road surface).
The effective width used by NMVs, ranging from 0 to 1.5 meters, is given by a function
of average speed, average length/width, and hourly NMV volume. The average
distance required by MVs for overtaking NMVs is also considered in the calculation of
the effective width of non-motorized traffic. The effective pavement width for MVs is
calculated by subtracting the effective width for NMVs from the physical width of
pavement. Effective capacities for different terrain types are then calculated by using
regression equations.
The effective capacity approach considers technical relationships concerning NMV and
MV interaction, and is convenient because the accumulated knowledge regarding
capacity and speed-flow relationships can effectively be incorporated into the analysis.
However, when applied to HDM modeling, the method has the following drawbacks:
- This approach is difficult to apply to road sections in which there is no clear distinction
between shoulders and the carriageway.
- The effective width of NMVs is determined independently from MV traffic, but the
volume of MV traffic and the composition of NMVs may influence the behavior of MV
traffic and the width used.
- When applied to HDM modeling, the method requires a number of additional
parameters, which increase the complexity of the analysis.
- Since the effective capacities cannot be measured directly, it is difficult to calibrate the
model.
Aggregate Approach: The drawbacks of the "effective capacity" approach have given
rise to an aggregate approach, for example by using "friction factor" or "side friction"
methods. This approach has been introduced in Hoban (1987, 1994a).

The concept of "friction" is used to describe the degree of NMT impacts on the speed
and capacity of motorized traffic. Various roadside activities such as pedestrians,
bicycles, non-motorized and slow-moving vehicles, roadside vendors, bus stops,
parking, and vehicles exiting or entering the roadway are combined into a single speed
reduction factor. This speed adjustment factor takes a value between 0 and 1; a value
of 0.9 implies that all speeds are reduced to 90 percent of that expected on a similar
road with no friction effects. Hoban (1994a) showed the possibility of using subjective
scaling by means of image photographs for determining the degrees of roadside
activities including slow-moving vehicles. This method is convenient for cases where
there is limited field data on roadside activities.
By using Hoban's concept (1987), recent field studies and research in Indonesia
(Sweroad, 1994) measured roadside friction effects on speed. This method identified
four significant friction items: pedestrian movements, stopping public transport vehicles,
parking activities, and vehicles entering and leaving roadside premises. The definitions
and measurement methods were slightly different for urban and interurban roads.
The degree of friction was measured in a single factor determined by the weighted
frequencies of the friction items. Five friction classes were set based on the friction
values: "very low" (rural, agricultural, or undeveloped), "low" (rural, some roadside
buildings and activities, "medium" (village, local transport and activities), "high" (village,
some market activities), and "very high" (almost urban, market and business activities).
A speed adjustment of 0.76 to 1.03 was calculated depending on the friction class, road
type (e.g., four-lane divided, two-lane undivided), and shoulder width.
The underlying assumptions made by this approach require further investigation. First,
all types of slow-moving vehicles are counted the same regardless of their physical
dimensions and operating characteristics, which are considered to be irrelevant to the
friction values. Second, the method does not consider the surface conditions of
shoulders, implying that the degree of conflicts between NMT and MT is not affected by
surface improvements. Third, the friction events are defined rather arbitrarily with little
logical basis; together with the field survey method further refinement is required.
Nevertheless, the empirical methods followed by the aggregate approach appear to be
more practical compared to the mechanistic approach (e.g., effective capacity) and have
a greater number of parameters. The empirical methods are therefore probably more
appropriate for incorporating the impact of NMT on MT traffic into HDM analysis.

SPEED-FLOW RELATIONSHIPS OF NMT TRAFFIC

As compared with MT speed-flow relationships, the NMT speed-flow relationships and
the impact of MT on NMT traffic have not been widely researched. However, pedestrian
flow has been investigated by several researchers (e.g., Pushkarev and Zupan, 1975;
Virkler and Elayadath, 1994; and Lam, 1995) who have developed curves describing the
relationship between pedestrian speed and flow. These curves, similar to vehicular flow
curves, show that when pedestrian volume is low on a walkway, average pedestrian

speeds are higher, while as volume increases, speeds decline. The results of these
studies are useful in modeling pedestrian time/cost under different walkway widths.
However, further research is required to establish pedestrian speeds in mixed traffic.
The bicycle flow-speed relationship has been studied in Beijing by Zhou and Akatsuka
(1994) on segments of roads with a 3.8 m bicycle lane separated from 3.9 m wide MT
lane separated by a dotted line. Although there were some variations in space (and
consequently in the bicycle flow rate), the study concluded that these differences were
not significant and speeds were constant at around 17 km per hour. The study indicated
that bicycle speeds were not influenced by the volume of MT traffic. These results,
however, should be interpreted with caution since bicycle lanes in Beijing are generally
wider than found elsewhere and therefore the speed-flow relationships could be different
in other situations. Similar studies should be conducted in different countries with
different road and traffic conditions; further analysis is required specify these
relationships and assess the significance of incorporating them in the new HDM
framework.
NMT IMPACT ON MT VEHICLE OPERATING COSTS
The influence of NMT on MT operating costs can be considered through the speed-flow
relationship presented earlier in this paper. These models can be used to estimate the
impact of NMT on the speed of motorized traffic. Fuel consumption, for example, is a
function of the average speed.
Besides the above approach, proposals for HDM-4 also consider congestion effects
through changes in "acceleration noise," that is the frequency and magnitude of vehicle
acceleration/deceleration behavior (Greenwood and Bennett, 1995). Acceleration
noisewhich is the standard deviation of acceleration, which varies in different situations
depending
on
vehicle
density,
characteristics
of
vehicles,
and road
conditionsinfluences the fuel consumption of MVs. A more realistic assessment of
changes in traffic and road conditions is possible by incorporating this relationship into
the HDM analysis. The study by Greenwood and Bennett indicates that experiments on
parameter calibration have been successfully conducted, and additional data for
different types of vehicles is now being collected.
Acceleration noise has two components: (i) traffic noise, which is influenced by
characteristics of traffic such as speed distribution, vehicle composition, and driver
characteristics; and (ii) natural noise represented by road alignment, roadside friction,
and pavement surface conditions. The influence of NMT can be represented as part of
natural noise or roadside friction. Further study is required to examine thereliability of
this method of NMT incorporation, with additional data collection and controlled
experiments needed. Roadside friction is one important factor that should be
incorporated into natural noise.
NMT OPERATING COSTS
The estimation of NMT operating costs is based on much weaker empirical evidence
than that for motorized vehicles. In an application of HDM-III in Indonesia, however,

10

Hoff & Overgaard (1994) considered operating costs (without passenger time costs) for
pedestrians, pikulan (shoulder/back-loaded traveling salesmen), bicycle, freight bicycle,
cycle-rickshaw (becak), ox-cart, horse-cart, and packhorse. Operating costs in a range
of roughness levels from IRI 3 to 35 for these NMT types were estimated in the study.
This approach considered the following cost elements:
-

crew time cost;

personal time cost;
time depreciation;
distance depreciation;
tires; and
repairs/maintenance.

For the calculation of each cost element, the study assumed the distribution of vehicles
in private and commercial use (e.g., 100 percent commercial for cycle-rickshaw; 50
percent commercial and 50 percent private for ox-cart), fleet life (e.g., 12 years for
passenger bicycle and eight years for cycle-rickshaw), annual utilization in kilometers
and hours, speeds, and elasticity of utilization. The elasticity of utilizationthe proportion
of vehicle time saved as a result of higher speedscould be realistically converted into
increased distance utilization, which in turn results in reduced total vehicle fleet
requirements for a given level of transport demand.
The impact of roughness on the speeds of bicycles, cycle-rickshaws, and horse-carts
were also reflected by regression equations as a function of IRI. However, for some
NMT types such as pedestrian, pikulan, ox-cart, and packhorse, the impact of
roughness on speed was assumed constant. Much of the original data was adopted
from studies carried out in the early 1980s for the World Bank and the Asian
Development Bank, and a small number of operator/user interviews carried out in 1993.
Although the method adopted by Hoff & Overgaard (1994) is not as sophisticated as the
method for estimating motorized vehicle operating costs, the method presents an
instructive approach for estimating the operating costs of NMT. It is anticipated that
refined VOC relationships similar to those for motorized vehicles will not be necessary
for NMT. The method, however, requires improvements in the following areas:
- The method could incorporate passenger costs for different types of NMVs based
on additional NMV passenger counts and interview
surveys. NMV passenger time
values could be separated into work and non-work.
- Further research is required to estimate the impact of pavement characteristics on
NMT speed. The relationship between NMT speed and pavement roughness should be
supported by empirical evidence.
- If possible, the effect of NMT congestion influenced by motorized
traffic may be considered in the model.
NMT IMPACT ON ROAD CONDITIONS
Cycle rickshaws can carry up to 400 kg, and animal carts can be loaded up to 1600 kg
(PADECO 1993b). NMV axle loading is high individually, and they could influence
pavement deterioration costs including maintenance and reduced pavement life by wear

11

and tear. However, the traffic volume of heavily loaded NMVs is usually low, therefore
their impact on pavement may be negligible compared with MVs.
On the other hand, the presence of NMT on the roadside influences the MV trajectories.
When cars and trucks encounter slow-moving NMT, they typically travel somewhat
closer to the center line to overtake the NMT. As a result, the travel width used by the
motorized traffic may decrease, leading to a possible increase in axle load concentration
and pavement deterioration.
IMPACT ON SAFETY
NMT users are vulnerable road users. A total of 1,783 persons were killed in traffic
accidents in Delhi in 1993, and about half (50.7 percent) of the accident fatalities were
either pedestrians or bicyclists. In Pune, 75.4 percent of the persons killed or injured in
traffic accidents were pedestrians, bicyclists, or bullock cart riders (Kuranami, 1995b).
These facts imply that it is possible to reduce accidents involving NMT by implementing
road improvements relating to NMT safety.
A highway feasibility study conducted in India included accident cost savings as part of
the benefits from road improvements (Kuranami, 1995a). The study draw upon
experience in the United States, the United Kingdom, and India. Analysis in the United
States suggested a reduction in the accident rate of between 10 and 27 percent from
paving shoulders. The regression equations developed in India suggested a 13 to 31
percent reduction from widening the paved surface. Studies in the United Kingdom
suggested a 65 percent reduction from segregating MVs and NMVs, and a 30 percent
reduction from upgrading a highway from two to four lanes. Safety improvements in
developing countries (e.g., widening of rural highways with a raised median and paved
shoulders) could have an even greater impact because of the involvement of NMVs and
undisciplined driving habits.
Accident categories to be used in analysis are restricted by the availability of accident
statistics and accident cost information. The study mentioned above in India adopted
the following accident types:
- persons killed;
- persons seriously injured;
- persons with minor injuries;
- trucks and buses damaged;
- cars damaged; and
- two-wheelers damaged.
Property damage to vehicles of non-motorized users were not included because
accident statistics were not available for this items.
The unit accident costs of the above categories were calculated drawing upon an
accident cost study by Kadiyali et al. (1990), which examined insurance record files and
hospital treatment records to determine the average monthly income of the victims,
period of hospitalization, expenses connected with court fees, and amount of award
given by the Accident Tribunal. Total accident savings were calculated by using the
predicted number and type of accidents reduced and unit accident costs for each

12

accident type. The accident cost submodel for HDM-4 could adopt an approach similar
to that taken in these Indian studies.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
This paper presented interim findings of issues relating to NMT modeling in HDM-4.
The major findings of this paper are summarized as follows:
Five NMV types are recommended for representation of NMT in HDM-4 is
recommended:
-

pedestrian;
bicycle;
cycle-rickshaw;
animal cart; and
farm tractor.

The above representation can be recommended as a standard, but the model structure
should allow users to add other types of NMT depending on the study area. At the
stage of traffic counting stage and analysis of NMT operating costs, a more detailed
classification of NMT depending on functional use may be required.
The road improvements directly relevant to NMT user costs and benefits
are listed below:
-

installation of NMV lane (shoulder) by marking;

installation of NMV lane (shoulder) by physical separator;
installation of NMV exclusive lane or path;
NMT lane (shoulder) widening;
installation of NMV parking/waiting areas;
surface condition improvement;
implementation of access control; and
grade improvement.

These improvements will influence at least the following performance characteristics of

NMT, which affect NMT user costs and benefits:
-

travel speed and time;

travel distance;
wear and tear of vehicles (and perhaps the shoes and clothing of pedestrians);
fares/user charges;
degree of conflicts with MT traffic;
accident rate.

Quantification of the impact of road improvements on NMT performance requires further

research based on field surveys and controlled experiments.
There are two approaches to modeling the impact of NMT on MT speed-flow
relationships. The "friction factor" approach (Hoban, 1987; Hoban, 1994a; and

13

Sweroad, 1994) is simpler and more practical compared to the "effective capacity"
approach (Hoff & Overgaard, 1992). An improved version of the "friction factor"
approach may be considered sufficient in HDM-4. Possible improvements include: the
review of definitions of "friction events" and corresponding data collection methods;
improvement of calibration by using methods other than linear regression models; and
treatment and definition of shoulder widths in the analysis.
The speed-flow relationships of NMT and impact of MT on NMT speed have not been
widely studied. If an NMT operating cost model is structured in relation to NMT speed, it
is preferred to include speed-flow relationships, but such inclusion could be considered
a longer-term objective in NMT modeling.
The impact of NMT on MT operating costs is mainly reflected through the change of MT
speed due to NMT traffic. In addition, HDM-4 is to integrate the "traffic noise" approach
(Greenwood and Bennett, 1995) in the estimation of fuel consumption, with the NMT
impact to be incorporated through the measurement of "natural noise."
The operating cost of NMT can be estimated based on the Indonesian experience (Hoff
& Overgaard, 1994). Additional information regarding the proportion of private and
commercial use of different types of NMT, and the average number of passengers and
freight load is helpful in refining the operating cost model. As the research advances in
the modeling relationship between road improvements and NMT performance, the
operating cost model can be improved accordingly.
It is probably not necessary to model road deterioration resulting from NMT use.
Individual NMT types could carry a heavy load of freight, but the frequency of this type
of traffic is low and therefore their collective impact may be negligible. On the other
hand, NMT can influence the lateral distribution of MT traffic, which can be modeled with
the "effective width" concept.
The impact of road improvements on accident cost saving may be estimated by the
approach adopted in a highway feasibility study in India. It should be noted, however,
that the approach applied some assumptions that have not been supported by empirical
evidence. Therefore, it is recommended that these relationships should be carefully
examined based upon additional information collected in developing countries.
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