AGRICULTURAL TRENDS AND ISSUES

A growing world population that wants (and can pay) for your products. Non-traditional labor
sources. And biological products that protect your crops from pests.
Those are just some of the agricultural trends youll see. Heres a glance at these and other
trends discussed at this weeks Bayer Crop Science Ag Issues Forum thats being held prior to
the Commodity Classic in Kissimmee, Florida.
1. Theres growing demand for what you grow.
Long-term, the worlds growing populations bodes well for products produced by farmers. We
need to increase food production by 70% to meet demand by 2050, says David Hollinrake,
Bayer Crop Science vice president for agricultural commercial operations.
Much of this growing population will have the cash to pay for this food, too. There is growing
wealth, says Hollinrake. As societies grow in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) what do they
want to do? They want to eat like us.
2. Ags labor squeeze will prompt non-traditional talent searches.
We are going to have to go to non-traditional universities rather than ag universities to look for
talent, says Hollinrake.
Later in the program, Rich Kottmeyer, senior executive and global agriculture & food production
leader for Accenture, theorized what the agricultural labor market would look like from a 2025
perspective.
We saw movement of urban youth to the farm to supply farm labor, he says. They are more
racially mixed, they are younger, and they come from an environment where for generations,
people were away from the farm. It took some government action, foresight of some senators,
but it was also really the private sector who said, Wait a minute. If we cant get labor from our
sons and daughters, where do we go but to a population that is most in need of being rescued
or being helped, and that was inner city youth.
3. Biologics will be a new phase in agricultural technology.
It will be the third leg of agricultural science, in addition to molecular biology and synthetic
chemistry," says David Nicholson, who heads research and development for Bayer
CropScience.

One example that Bayer has already launched is its Poncho Votivo seed treatment, which
contains a natural bacterial strain that creates a living barrier around roots that prevents
nematodes from causing damage.
Another bonus: Because biologics are naturally occurring products, their regulatory timeline is
shorter than that of traditional chemistry. Regulatory approval often takes just two to three years
for biologics, compared to 10 to 12 years for traditional chemistries, says Hollinrake.
4. Herbicide-resistant weeds will continue to spread.
Hollinrake says Bayer officials often field this farmer complaint: I cant control weeds I used to
control two years ago.
Hollinrake notes these farmers arent alone. Sixty-one million acres are infested with
resistance, says Hollinrake. It is a trend that is here to stay. Thats why Bayer is researching
and marketing new products to help farmers deal with it, he says.
5. Traceability will increase.
There will come a day when a consumer will walk into a grocery store, pick out a product, scan
it, and be able to know where it was grown, what products were used to grow it, and if it
satisfied what they are looking for, says Hollinrake.
6. Farmers will have a CEO mentality.
They will make decisions based on return on investment, where in the past, they might have
made them based on lifestyle and relationship choice, says Hollinrake.
7. Precision farming will switch from data collection to decision making.
Precision agricultural techniques like field mapping have farmers swimming in data. Hollinrake
sees an opportunity to take this data and transfer it into use for decision-making. We want to be
a leader in moving precision to decision, he says.
We are moving into the data-centric era, adds Nicholson. There are huge amounts of data
(being generated). People who will win are people who will be able to handle data best, and turn
that information into knowledge.
8. Crop technology will expand to enable plants to better endure abiotic stressors.
In the past, crop scientists have done a fantastic job of developing or helping plants kill insects,
weeds or fungi, says Nicholson. What we are now looking to do is to enhance plant health by
protecting plant from non-living stressors like heat or ultraviolet light, he says.
9. Youll continue to pay more for seed.

It costs seed and chemical companies big bucks and time to bring products to market. Heres a
few numbers that Hollinrake tossed out:
Average research and development costs for a crop production product to reach the
market: $256 million.
Time for one crop production product to reach the market: 10 years.

TRENDS AND ISSUES IN AGRICULTURE

Organic foods sales are up about 8% for 2010 overall and more for nonfood items
in contrast to a growth rate of less than 1% for overall grocery sales in the U.S.
Overall food prices are up and this will continue with a 3-4% increase expected in
2011.
Fertilizer prices are expected to increase to the 2008 levels or higher, after falling
during 2009-10.
Hiring unemployed workers in 2010 and keeping them on in 2011 can provide a tax
credit in 2011 of $1000. The break can be taken only for those employees who
worked for a maximum of 40 hours in the 60 days prior to their hire date and who
have remained employed for 52 consecutive weeks. Also, pay in the last 26 weeks
cant be less than 80% of their first 26 weeks wages.
The number of farms in the U.S., which is now at 2.2 million, will not change much
in the next few years. However, midsized farms will continue to disappear and be
replaced by small or large farms.
The proposed budget for the USDA is out and cuts are expected. New fees for USDA
services are expected. Conservation programs are expected to be cuts. Ag.
research will likely not be cut significantly, although extension funds are expected
to be cut.
Within a year or two, lawmakers are expected to approve legislation that exempts
farmers from Clean Water Act rules on pesticide use, provided that they fully
comply with current federal pesticide laws.