Rabindra Chaulagai

PROBABILISTIC SLOPE STABILITY ANALYSIS

ABSTRACT: This paper explores the method of solving the slope stability
problems through probabilistic analysis approach. One sample problems is
chosen for case study and probabilistic analysis is done through computer
software known as Geo Studio. Moreover, another problem is also solved
manually by the technique suggested by Michael Duncan (2000) in his
journal paper.

INTRODUCTION
Stability of the slopes are determined by the balance of shear stress and shear strength. It is
mandatory to have the shear strength of the soil greater than the shear stress required for the
equilibrium for the slope to be stable. Increased pore water pressure, cracking, swelling
weathering etc. are some causes of slope failure. Slope stability analysis can be done through two
approaches deterministic analysis and probabilistic analysis. Deterministic analysis is the
traditional method of calculating factor of safety (FOS) and is unable to account the uncertainties
of soil material properties. Some of the common method for deterministic analysis are Spencer
Method, Bishop Method, Fellenius Method etc.
In contrary to this, probabilistic analysis is more advanced method and addresses the
uncertainties of soil properties. Variation in cohesion (c), unit weight () and internal angle of
friction () are treated statistically and are represented either by normal or lognormal distribution
as an input for calculation. Factor of safety is determined through deterministic analysis and
results from the deterministic analysis are taken into account to calculate the probability of
failure (Pf) and reliability index ().Single Random Variable Approach, Monte Carlo Simulation,
Point Estimation Method (PEM), Finite Element Method are some of the common approaches to
solve the slope stability problems.

PROBABILITY OF FAILURE
The main goal of the probabilistic slope stability analysis is to gain the complete distribution of
factor of safety values given a set of random input variables with specified statistical properties.
From the distribution of factor of safety values, probability of failure can be determined. There
are no any specific values of probability of failure (P f) to define failure criterion. It is based upon
the judgement and experience of engineers. Slope with high value of probability of failure is
expected to perform poorly and vice versa. The event whose probability is described does not
need to be a catastrophic failure. It is always important to recognize the consequences of failure.
Some of the failures may be catastrophic while some of them may not be as catastrophic as other.
For example, a small sliding of a soil mass do not have a secondary consequence or do not pose a
1

Rabindra Chaulagai
threat to life whereas big slope failures or the sliding of a large mass of a soil would be
catastrophic, involve threat to life and be very expensive for repair. So, in both of the conditions
probability of failure is used but the consequence of these events are the most important.
(Duncan 2000) has described the method for calculating the probability of failure for different
geo technical structures. It involves the following steps:
1)

Calculate factor of safety of slope by any method at most likely values. For example,
factor of safety can be calculated by Fellinius Method as:

Figure 1: Circular failure surface

FOS = (c.bsec + W cos.tan) / Wsin

2

(1)

Rabindra Chaulagai
Where, c = cohesion (psf or KN/m2), b= width of each slice (ft or m), = angle of inclination of
slope with horizontal (degree), = angle of friction (degree), and W = weight of the soil (lb or
KN).
Factor of safety calculated using equation (1) is also known as factor of safety at most likely
values (FMLV)
2) Estimate the standard deviation of each quantities involved.
3) Calculate the standard deviation and coefficient of variation of factor of safety by using
these formulas given by Taylor Series:

(2)

(3)

Where,
F = Standard deviation of the factor of safety and VF =Coefficient of
variation of factor of safety, F 1 = (F1+ - F1-). F1+ is the factor of safety calculated with value of
cohesion increased by one standard deviation from its most likely value. F 1- is the factor of safety
calculated with the value of the cohesion decreased by one standard deviation. While calculating
F1+ and F1- , the values of internal angle of friction and unit weight are kept at their most likely
values.
The values of F2, F3 are calculated by varying other parameters.
4) Calculating the coefficient of variation from equation (3)
5) Determining the factor of safety from table 1.

Rabindra Chaulagai

Table 1: Probabilities That Factor of Safety Is Smaller than 1.0, Based on Lognormal
Distribution of Factor of Safety (Duncan 2000)

Rabindra Chaulagai

RELIABILITY
Reliability (R) is an alternative measure of stability and provides a means of evaluating the
uncertainties. Reliability in any slope stability problems means that the slope will not fail and
remains stable under specific design conditions which is defined by the relation:
R = 1- Pf

(4)

Where, Pf is the probability of failure and R is the reliability index. Harr (1987) defines the term
reliability as: Reliability is the probability of an object (item or system) performing its required
function adequately for a specified period of time under stated conditions. In the day to day life,
people are not familiar to the concept of reliability and prefers the values of probabilities or the
factor of safety.

MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

Monte Carlo Simulation is a very simple, flexible and powerful method applicable to the wide
range of problems. It is very easy to use and can give us the accurate result if enough simulations
are performed. It has a versatile computational procedure which is suitable for the high speed
computers.
Geo-Studio, Slope/W program calculates the probability of failure by performing Monte Carlo
Simulation which involves the following process:
1) Selection of the appropriate method for deterministic analysis.
2) Representation of variables such as cohesion, coefficient of friction and unit weight in
terms of selected distribution models such as normal or log normal distribution.
3) Random sampling of input parameters and determining the factor of safety many times.
4) Computation of probability of failure based on the Factor of Safety values which are less
than 1.
The required number of simulations depends upon the desired level of confidence and number of
variables. Following relation is used to determine the number of simulation:

(5)
Where, Nmc is
the number of monte carlo trials, d is normal standard
deviate corresponding to level of confidence, is desired level of confidence expressed in
decimal and m is the number of variables. The main disadvantage of this method is that, it
5

Rabindra Chaulagai
requires thousands of simulation to give more accurate result which could be time consuming in
some cases. In practical case, thousands of Monte Carlo trials are conducted but the results are
not much more sensitive after having some thousand number of trials. Computer software called
Geo-Studio has the project Slope/W which incorporates the Monte Carlo Simulation in its
analysis.

EXAMPLE 1 SLOPE STABILITY

A slope with circular failure surface is as
shown in figure 2. Circle with the failure
surface has the center at (0, 100) and
intercepts at (0, 0) and (90, 56.4). Soil
properties are - cohesion of 800psf (38.3
kN/m3), a friction angle of 100 and a total unit
weight of 125pcf (19.6 kN/m3). Dimensions
in the parenthesis are in feet.

Factor of Safety at most likely value is

calculated by using equation (1). So,
FOSMLV = 1.638.
Figure 2: Slope with circular failure surface
Mean and standard deviation for each of the soil properties is calculated as shown in the table
below:

S.N.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Mean
SD(
)

Unit weight()
110
130
127
142
106
117
135
136
125
122
125.00

Friction()
0
2
14
8
15
9
12
9
13
18
10.00

Cohesion (c)
750
772
850
790
810
835
800
779
764
850
800.00

11.54

5.66

35.66

Rabindra Chaulagai
Table 2: Computation of Mean and Standard Deviation of Soil Properties

Values
Factor of Safety
Variable
Cohesion
835.66
F1+=1.697
Most likely value plus
764.34
F1-=1.579
Most likely value minus
Friction
15.66
F2+=1.819
Most likely value plus
4.34
F2-=1.463
Most likely value minus
Unit Weight
136.54
F3+=1.526
Most likely value plus
113.46
F3-=1.773
Most likely value minus
Table 3: Factor of Safety Calculation at varying soil strength parameters

F
0.118
0.356

-0.247

Standard deviation of factor of safety (F) = (0.118/2)2+(0.356/2)2+(-0.247/2)2

= 0.224
Coefficient of Variation (COVF) = F/ FMLV = 0.224/ 1.638 = 13.68%
From table 1, probability of failure (Pf) = 0.018%

EXAMPLE 2- SLOPE STABILITY

A slope with circular failure surface is as
shown in figure 2. Circle with the failure
surface has the center at (110, 110) and
intercepts at (0, 60) and (160, 0). Soil in the
slope has a mean value of cohesion, friction
angle and unit weight 200psf, 300 and
125pcf respectively. Dimensions in the
parenthesis are in feet. Phreatic line is
shown in the figure

Figure 3: Soil with circular failure surface

Here, standard deviation for the different sets of data of cohesion, friction and unit weight are
calculated as shown in the table 4.
7

Rabindra Chaulagai

S.N.

Cohesion (psf)

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Mean
SD
Correlat
ion

180
190
183
200
205
210
195
207
215
215
200
12.64

Angle of
friction(degree)
46
39
42
20
17
35
36
26
22
27
31
9.94

Unit weight (pcf)

127
120
140
105
110
108
145
140
135
120
125
14.60

-0.75

Table 4: Calculation of Standard Deviation for Cohesion, Friction and Unit Weight

Figure 4: Slope created using Geo-Studio software

Fellenius method was applied for the calculation of factor of safety. Then, for the probabilistic
analysis 2000 Monte Carlo simulation was performed on the critical slip surface to determine the
probability of failure and reliability index.
8

Rabindra Chaulagai
Figure 5: Critical Slip Circle with Factor of Safety Calculated on Geo-Studio

Hence, for the given slope, critical slip

circle as shown in figure 5 was found with
factor of safety 1.247. Moreover, probability
failure was obtained 21.2% and reliability
index 0.82. With this value of probability of
failure, it can be stated that the given slope
not highly vulnerable to failure.

of

is

Figure 6: Probability vs FOS plot by Geo-Studio

Reference
Huang, Y. H. (2014). Slope Stability Analysis by the Limit Equilibrium Method, Fundamental
and Methods. Reston, Virginia: ASCE
(2012). Slope Modeling with Slope/W. Calgary, Alberta, Canada: GEO-SLOPE International Ltd.
Stankovi , J. N., Filipovi , S., Rajkovi , R., Obradovi , L., Marinkovi , V., & Kovaevi , R.
(2013). Risk And Reliability Analysis of Slope Stability-Deterministic And Probabilistic
Method . Journal of Trends in the Development of Machinery.
Gibson , W. (2011). Probabilistic Methods for Slope Analysis and Design. Australian
Geomechanics, 46, 12.
Hammah, R., & Yacoub, T. (2009). Probabilistic Slope Analysis with the Finite Element Method.
43rd US Rock Mechanics Symposium, (p. 8). Asheville
Duncan, J. M., & Wright, S. G. (2005). Soil Strength and Slope Stability. John Wiley & Sons Inc.
D.V. Griffiths, and G.A. Fenton, (2004), Probabilistic slope stability analysis by finite elements
Journal of Geotechnical and Geo environmental Engineering, No.130, pp: 507-518.
Duncan, J. M. (2000). Factors of Safety and Reliability in Geo Technical Engineering. Journal of
Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, ASCE, 2000, vol 126(4)