New Zealand Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rate

Date

New Zealand Dollar to US Dollar

Friday 11 December 2015

1 NZD = 0.6715 USD

Thursday 10 December 2015

1 NZD = 0.6762 USD

Wednesday 9 December 2015

1 NZD = 0.6724 USD

Tuesday 8 December 2015

1 NZD = 0.6639 USD

Monday 7 December 2015

1 NZD = 0.6635 USD

Sunday 6 December 2015

1 NZD = 0.6728 USD

Saturday 5 December 2015

1 NZD = 0.6748 USD

Friday 4 December 2015

1 NZD = 0.6748 USD

Thursday 3 December 2015

1 NZD = 0.6675 USD

Wednesday 2 December 2015

1 NZD = 0.6642 USD

Tuesday 1 December 2015

1 NZD = 0.6671 USD

Technical Data of NZD/USD

Date

Price

Open

High

Low

Change %

Dec 11, 2015

0.6715

0.6760

0.6782

0.6704

-0.58%

Dec 10, 2015

0.6754

0.6718

0.6783

0.6715

0.51%

Dec 09, 2015

0.6720

0.6642

0.6759

0.6592

1.11%

Dec 08, 2015

0.6646

0.6642

0.6664

0.6610

0.03%

Dec 07, 2015

0.6644

0.6735

0.6750

0.6623

-1.54%

Dec 04, 2015

0.6748

0.6686

0.6790

0.6633

0.90%

Dec 03, 2015

0.6688

0.6638

0.6712

0.6605

0.72%

Dec 02, 2015

0.6640

0.6674

0.6683

0.6610

-0.54%

Dec 01, 2015

0.6676

0.6580

0.6694

0.6580

1.40%

The New Zealands dollar is getting stronger on positive macroeconomic data and high base
rate. The 10-year bond yields in New Zealand are one of the highest in the developed countries
totaling 3.84%. In the neighbouring Australia it is slightly below 3%.

The New Zealands November consumer confidence index came out on November 30, the
reading being the highest in recent 6 months. The majority of other macroeconomic indicators
remain positive as well. In particular, last week the negative trade balance for October
contracted.
The New Zealands base rate is 2.75%, Australias is 2%. In our opinion, the rate of the New
Zealands dollar could have been higher but investors are concerned with the probable further
interest rate cut on the Reserve Bank meeting on December 9. It may be reduced to 2.5% from
the current 2.75%, according to the forecasts.
This year the New Zealands Central Bank has already cut the rate three times by 0.25
percentage points each. At the start of the year the rate was 3.5%.
The current New Zealands dollar uptrend may continue till the Central Bank meeting. Its further
dynamics will depend on the Banks decision on the rate. Note, that this year the Reserve Bank of
Australia cut the rate only twice by the same 0.25 percentage points. Since April it remains on the
current 2% level down from 2.5% early in the year. The Australias GDP advanced 2% in the 2nd
quarter while the New Zealands edged 2.4% up. Meanwhile, the Aussie lost only 10% against
the US dollar since the start of the year while the New Zealands dollar fell almost 15%.
NZDUSD_1
NZDUSD
On the daily chart the NZDUSD: D1 is in uptrend. Parabolic indicator and MACD have formed the
buy signals. RSI is neutral near 50, no divergence. The Bollinger bands have contracted which
may mean low volatility. The bullish trend may develop in case the New Zealands dollar
surpasses the three last fractal highs and the Fibonacci Fan line at 0.667. This level may serve
the point of entry. The initial risk-limit may be placed below the Parabolic signal and the last
fractal low at 0.642. Having opened the pending order we shall move the stop to the next fractal
low following the Parabolic and Bollinger signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss
ratio to the breakeven point. The most risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after
the trade and place there a stop-loss moving it in the direction of the trade. If the price meets the
stop-loss level at 0.642 without reaching the order at 0.667, we recommend cancelling the
position: the market sustains internal changes which were not taken into account.
Position
Buy
Stop loss below 0,642

stop

above

Buy
0,667

Despite bets for a rate-cut, the policy statement may boost the appeal of the New Zealand dollar should the
RBNZ
show
a
greater
willingness
to
conclude
its
easing
cycle.

- Reserve Bank of New Zealand to Reduce Cash Rate to Record-Low of 2.50%.

The RBNZ may sound less-dovish this time around as the previous rate-cuts work their way through the real
economy, and the New Zealand dollar may continue to recoup the losses from earlier this year should the central
bank adopt an improved outlook for the region and show a greater willingness to shift gears over the medium to
long-term horizon.
Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Private Wage ex Overtime (QoQ) (3Q)

0.5%

0.4%

Employment Change (QoQ) (3Q)

0.4%

-0.4%

Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (2Q)

0.6%

0.4%

The weakening outlook for global growth accompanied by the slowdown in employment may encourage RBNZ
Governor Wheeler to further insulate the real economy, and the local currency stands at risk of facing additional
headwinds in 2016 should the central bank .
Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

ANZ Business Confidence (NOV)

--

14.6

Retail Sales ex Inflation (QoQ) (3Q)

1.4%

1.6%

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (3Q)

0.3%

0.4%

However, the RBNZ may look to conclude its easing cycle amid improving demand from home and abroad, and
the New Zealand dollar may face a larger correction in the days ahead should the central bank endorse a waitand-see approach.
How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)
Bearish NZD Trade: RBNZ Cuts & Keeps Door Open for Lower Rates

Need red, five-minute candle following the rate decision for a potential short NZD/USD trade.

If market reaction favors a bearish aussie trade, sell NZD/USD with two separate position.

Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.

Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bullish NZD Trade: Governor Wheeler Suggests End of Easing Cycle is Near

Need green, five-minute candle to consider a long NZD/USD position.

Carry out the same setup as the bearish aussie trade, just in reverse.

NZD/USD: bulls step out ahead of FOMC

Fri, Dec 11 2015, 15:34 GMT | FXStreet
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Related News

NZD: RBNZ shifts to hibernation mode Goldman Sachs

NZD/USD fades a spike to 0.6780, back at 200-DMA
Antipodeans drop in Asia on weaker oil, a host of US data eyed

FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6730 with a high of 0.6782 and a low
of

0.6702.

NZD/USD is falling over and the 0.67 handle is under threat as think liquidity exposes risk trades
to the downside. Gold has rallied, the dollar is soft, euro stronger and oil hitting new lows below
$36 bbl at 35.80. Positioning ahead of the FOMC is taking effect while a 25bp hike is priced in on
the basis that conditions seem appropriate for lift-off. The RBNZ rally had its day, but the
downside is wide open on a failed mission and the next target lower sees the 200 SMA on the
hourly
NZD/USD

chart

at

0.6677.
levels

Technically, the downside risks through the 20 DMA at 0.6604 and the cluster of key MA's could
be pivotal where the price bounced from post RBNZ. The 100 DMA is located at 0.6544 guarding
August lows of 0.6620.

Technical Analysis NZDUSD : 2015-12-11

Fri,
Dec
by Sergey Kamenshikov, Ph.D. | IFC Markets

11

2015,

13:53

GMT

Vote up: 0Vote down: 0

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New Zealand dollar strengthens after rate cut The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the interest
rates on Thursday. The New Zealand dollar rose following easing by the central bank. Will the
New Zealand dollar continue strengthening?
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the Official Cash Rate on Thursday 0.25% for the fourth
time this year to 2.5%. The NZDUSD pair had been strengthening ahead of the interest rate
meeting despite the widespread belief that the central bank will ease further. The central bank
policy statement was perceived a bullish signal by investors as it implied that policy makers
expect no need for further easing - Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler said in his
statement they expect inflation will settle near the middle of the target range of 1 to 3 percent at
current interest rate settings. Another positive development for kiwi was the milk price forecast
upgrade by Fonterra, New Zealand dairy cooperative and worlds biggest exporter of dairy
products. Dairy exports account for about 30% of countrys merchandise exports. Improved
economic performance of Australia, New Zealands second largest trading partner accounting for
over 17% of countrys exports, also boosted kiwis prospects. Australias economic growth
accelerated to 2.5% in the third quarter year-over-year against a 1.9% increase in the previous
quarter. And on Thursday labor market report indicated unemployment in Australia unexpectedly
fell for the second month in a row to a 19-month low of 5.8 %.

NZDUSD
NZDUSD has been trading with upside bias the last couple of weeks and has breached above
trend line resistance. The Parabolic indicator gives a buy signal. The RSI oscillator is above 50
and rising and hasnt reached the overbought zone yet. The Donchian channel is tilted upward,
indicating an uptrend. The MACD indicator is above the signal line and the zero level which is a
bullish signal. We believe the bullsh momentum will continue after the price closes above the
upper Donchian channel and last fractal high at 0.6785. A pending order to buy can be placed
above that level. The stop loss can be placed below the last fractal low and lower Donchian
channel at 0.65. After placing the pending order the stop loss is to be moved every day to the
next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio
to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level without reaching the order, we

recommend cancelling the position: the market sustains internal changes which were not taken
into

account.

Position
Buy
Buy stop above 0.6785
Stop loss below 0.65
Published On Fri, Dec 11 2015,

FOREX-Fed expectations buoy dollar after Wednesday selloff

ForexDec 10, 2015 21:14

Reuters. FOREX-Fed expectations buoy dollar after Wednesday sellof

(Updates with U.S. market, adds quote,

changes dateline; previous LONDON)
* Markets convinced Fed will raise
rates next week
* SNB keeps rates unchanged, pushes
Swiss franc higher
* Australian dollar jumps on bullish jobs data surprise
By Dion Rabouin

NEW YORK, Dec 10 (Reuters) - The dollar rose on Thursday as markets

refocused on an expected interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve
and pushed the greenback up from one-month lows against the euro and
yen.
The dollar regained part of Wednesday's losses of more than 1 percent,
which came after comments on Tuesday from the European Central Bank's
Ewald Nowotny that added to doubts about further policy divergence
between the United States and Europe.
Markets were largely expecting the Fed to tighten monetary policy and the
ECB to ease this month, and while the European bank did reduce its
deposit interest rate, the cut was below expectations. Nowotny's
comments extended fears the ECB may not take further action.
As uncertainty has grown that the European leg of policy divergence may
not come to pass, markets remain overwhelmingly convinced the Fed will
raise rates at its Dec. 15-16 meeting, helping the dollar stay further
losses.
"You are seeing people become more convinced that the Fed is going to
move on autopilot," said Karl Schamotta, director of FX strategy and
structured products at Cambridge Mercantile Group in Toronto.
"Therefore you are seeing a unidirectional pattern in the market. A lot of
the flurry that happened yesterday is percolating out of the market."
Fed fund futures show markets believe there is an 85 percent chance the
Fed will raise rates next week. A recent Reuters poll showed that all but
one of 18 brokerages that deal directly with the Fed expect a rate
increase.
The dollar index .DXY , which measures the greenback against six major
rivals, rose 0.49 percent, to 97.824.
The euro EUR= fell 0.5 percent against the dollar to $1.0963.
The dollar was flat against the yen JPY= .

The Australian dollar reached a high of $0.7333, helped by a robust jobs

report, pulling it away from the previous day's two-week low of $0.7169. It
last stood at $0.7305, up 1 percent.
The New Zealand dollar rallied after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut
interest rates but said further easing should not be needed.
The kiwi touched a high of $0.6782 NZD=D4 , more than 2 full U.S. cents
above the previous day's low of $0.6562. It was last up 0.7 percent at
$0.6764.
The Swiss franc also rose against the dollar after Switzerland's central
bank kept interest rates on hold at record lows, defying some expectations
that it might act to weaken what analysts see as an over-valued currency.

FOREX-Fed expectations buoy dollar after Wednesday

sellof