The Ranil Wickremesinghe Factor in 2016

and beyond
By Krishantha Prasad Cooray

(Lanka-e-News
-21.Dec.2015, 11.30PM) One year ago,
around the time of Christmas, there
was tension in the country. The people
were about to vote in a presidential
election which would decide the
destiny of the country, one way or the
other. Today, one year later, we are
celebrating Christmas and enjoying the festive season without any of these
tensions.
A few weeks from now we will see President Maithripala Sirisena complete
one year in office. The anniversary will no doubt prompt many to step back
and assess. Promises made will be re-visited. The achievements will be
listed. The tasks not attended to or those over which there was palpable
stumbling will be noted. These analyses will be coloured by political
loyalties. The more detached commentators will consider the contexts and
their changing nature. Priorities as well as available resources will be
factored in. In any event it is a necessary exercise for both the analyser
and the analysed.
Many have called the 8th of January victory of Maithripala Sirisena over
Mahinda Rajapaksa a revolution. This choice of word has been inspired no
doubt by the popularity despite the dictatorial style that the ex President
enjoyed and also the distinct advantages of being an incumbent. Some of
those advantages were from the Constitution and some from amendments
to the same which he got Parliament to pass, clearly using his executive
powers. There was also the will to abuse state resources over and above
the general intimidation of opponents that had become normal for those in
power, especially the executive president. Considering the odds, therefore,
revolution was a legitimate word to use.
However, as history has shown many times, whether or not a revolution has
indeed taken place has to be judged by the transformations that have taken
place or have not as the case may be. New wine in old bottles does not go

with the word revolution. It takes a lot of effort to overhaul a corrupt or

inefficient system; a lot more than a change at the top even if it is
supported by putting new faces in place of the old. Also, such change has
to be supported by active participation of the people. They have to push
and they too have to pull their weight.
In short it was an ambitious task from Day One. Expectations were
naturally high. Skill did not always match enthusiasm. The resilience of the
system, perhaps more than those who resented or wanted to throw
spanners in the wheels, surprised many. The people were impatient at
times, but at times understanding. As always promises tended to be
inflated versions of what was deliverable. Priorities and challenges saw
certain areas being neglected. Lack of human resources was always going
to be a problem. Mistakes would be and indeed were made. Some of it was
of course forgivable, but there would be critics who would be unforgiving.
In assessing the first year of what might be called the Post-Mahinda Era, we
have to take all this into account. However, if it was about transforming a
system for the better, then it is best to see how actions (or inaction) could
impact the long-term (of the country) rather than the day-to-day lives of
people.
To quickly go through the short-term elements, there will be complaints
about the cost of living. We also saw protests regarding certain elements of
the budget. It must be understood that Sri Lanka is tied to a global
economy and that the larger processes have been marked by one financial
crisis moving to another. There are external factors that we can do little or
nothing about. It must be said however that hard decisions have to be
made. Short term sacrifice is often necessary for long term gain. If the
sacrifices are unbearable and people protest against some of the harsh
measures, then Governments have to consider their voices. This was done
in this instance. It should not be seen as a weakness but as a strength.
This has to be appreciated. Economists will be able to and should look at
the final version of the budget that Parliament passes and assess if indeed
it is reasonable to hope that the country would be somewhere close to
where the Finance Minister promises to take it come the 1st of January
2017.
There is displeasure in some circles about perceived slowness in bringing to
book people who have perpetrated financial fraud. It was expected that a
lot of high ranking persons in the previous regime would be put behind bars
immediately after President Maithripala Sirisena took office. That this did
not happen might be frustrating but then again when the wheels move too
fast justice can get derailed. If change was what was wanted, the old ways
cannot be used to get desired results. The Rule of Law has to prevail and
not be maneuvered politically.

In terms of one aspect of the short-term there can be no doubt. There is

a sense of freedom to oppose that was almost non-existent during Mahinda
Rajapaksas tenure. There is a greater faith in the institutions of justice.
The consequent relief is palpable. Of course, one must not forget that it
was during Mahinda Rajapaksas tenure that the other great fear, terrorism,
was defeated. Some would say that things actually got worse after that. In
any event the defeat of terrorism did not see a consecration of the Rule of
Law. Rather, that aspect got worse. The 8th of January result gave hope to
people that this would get corrected. Even before the independent
institutions were set up, a healthier environment was created in this
respect.
The political grouping that led to President Sirisenas victory and the
National Government that was formed after the General Election on the
17th of August are both marked with the term Good Governance or in
common parlance Yahapalanaya. That was an election promise that has
since become an identifier, if not for the substance of whats happened
over the past 12 months for the constant use of the term. In political terms
the importance is that it refers to structural and therefore more sustainable
changes that makes revolution a legitimate term.
The 100 Days Programme was very clear about constitutional change. The
19th Amendment would help re-democratize Sri Lanka. Some interpreted
Maithripala Sirisenas manifesto as a promise to abolish the executive
presidency. The 19th pruned some of the powers. More importantly it won
back a lot of ground lost in the passage of the 18th Amendment, especially
the Constitutional Council and independent commissions covering a wide
range of spheres. The purpose was to allow institutions and officials to act
without bending to the will of politicians, but guided only by well
established rules and regulations. It took more than 100 days to institute
the Constitutional Council, but it was done. It took more than 100 days to
establish the independent commissions, but it was done. The benefits will
of course be seen later than sooner, but one thing is clear: the way things
get done in the country will no longer depend on the whims and fancies of
the powerful. Men and women of integrity will ensure that established
procedures will be followed.
The 20th Amendment, that of changing the electoral system, was to be
passed within the first 100 days of President Sirisenas term. It is
disappointing that this did not happen. However, the idea has not been
abandoned. Since the independent Delimitation Commission has been
established we can expect greater movement in this regard. The same can
be said of the Right to Information Act, which is a key piece of the puzzle to
democratize Sri Lanka. It hasnt yet seen the light of day, but the signs say

that it will come up very soon. The most important aspect of these
initiatives is that it helps create a level playing field where even the
architects do not enjoy any special advantages.
The work, however, is not complete. We are almost a year into this
revolution, but we have to see the year that has passed as well as the
several years to come as the gestation period. The cement of democracy
must harden and this takes time. It requires that we do not disturb the
mortar by straying into it carelessly. The leaders must be cautious and the
citizens must be patient. Most importantly, those who are serious about
real change have to make informed choices every step of the way that
supports not detracts from those forces committed to and capable of seeing
the reform process to the end.
As things stand, even the most ardent supporter of the National
Government would have to admit that we are yet to get the political
stability necessary for sustained structural reform. In any given political
context a coalition of the two main parties comes with tensions and
generates uncertainty. We can debate the merits and demerits of the
decisions which brought us to where we are now, but we can safely say we
are on the correct track. Also, we can say that with all the tensions and
uncertainty, and despite the push and pull of political forces within the
constituent parties of the ruling coalition, the leaders have succeeded in
instituting important changes. We already mentioned the 19th Amendment
and the independent commissions.
The problem is that in these teething-years we need an enlightened and
politically secure stewardship. It is hard to predict the course of politics in a
democracy that has unfortunately been crippled to fledgling status.
President Sirisena is walking a tight rope as leader of a party that actually
campaigned against him. The still considerable powers vested in his office
will guarantee that he retains control of reins tight enough to stop his party
from pulling in different directions and thereby compromising his ability to
maintain the integrity of the coalition government. It is important that he
has this power because this alone can ensure the two-thirds parliamentary
majority necessary for the passage of important constitutional
amendments. The hopeful will assume as they should that he will keep the
SLFP afloat, so to speak, at least until constitutional errors are corrected.
President Sirisena has maintained that he will be a one-term President.
Also, he pledged at the funeral of Ven Madoluwawe Sobitha Thero, that he
will see to it that the executive presidency is abolished. The Presidents
credibility rests on doing this immediately. If he waits until the tail-end of
his term it might be interpreted as a move designed to obtain political
advantage and not as an act by a statesman. Whether he will retire from
politics at the end of his term is something President Sirisena will have to

decide. If electoral reforms are instituted, then in a context where

executive power returns to a Cabinet headed by the Prime Minister, it is
imperative that the reins of power is with someone who has the vision and
the ability to oversee this delicate period where the country progresses to a
fully fledged democracy built on the solid foundation of constitutional
guarantees and insured by a citizenry that can no longer be kept in the dark
because key information cannot be withheld.
It is considering all of the above that we have to speak of the Leader of the
United National Party, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. It has been
argued that it would have been difficult to defeat Mahinda Rajapaksa had
he and not Maithripala Sirisena contested. Indeed, it is hard to claim that
he most definitely would have attracted some 200,000 SLFP votes that he
would have needed to pip the incumbent. However, no one can deny that
his decision to back Sirisena was decisive. Despite objections or at least
displeasure from certain quarters of his party, Wickremesinghe continued to
back the Presidents reform agenda after the 8th of January. It could also be
said that he played a lead role and not a supportive one in this regard. In
the very least it can be said that while the direction given by the President
was crucial, as important was the backing he received from the UNP,
support which Wickremesinghe and no one else was capable of securing.
Wickremesinghe, in a changed political climate, led the UNP to its first
major election win in over 10 years. He failed to deliver a majority but in
hindsight, considering the need to work with the President to get the
parliamentary arithmetic right for reform, coming up short can be seen as a
blessing in disguise. Had he not been interested in reform and was instead
playing for personal or even party stakes, he could easily have engineered
the defection of the number of MPs needed to get 113 seats in Parliament.
He did not. This shows both political maturity and statesmanship. He
promised to help the President form a coalition government and kept his
part of the bargain. He would have known that the discoloration that the
SLFP underwent during the previous regime would inevitably taint this
coalition government. He would have known and if not he would know now
that part of the blame for the inevitable errors of the tried-and-failed would
be placed at his door. He has, however, put reform ahead of all else. That
alone shows his commitment to a different Sri Lanka with a different
political and institutional arrangement.
It has to be understood that he is batting on a nasty wicket. Quite apart
from not being in absolute control of the political equation, Wickremesinghe
is hampered by the fact that he doesnt have the kind of support cast that J
R Jayewardena for example had in 1977. He has a bits-and-pieces team
capable of the odd cameo but certainly not Test material, to use a
cricketing metaphor. On the other hand now that he is Prime Minister, he
has been saved all the headaches of intra-party rivalry. To date he has not

shown any vindictiveness. In fact he has given the one man who contested
him for the party leadership, Karu Jayasuriya, an all-important role. As
Speaker, Jayasuriya is also an ex-officio member of the Constitutional
Council and most importantly its Chairman. Wickremesinghe has placed his
trust on Jayasuriyas proven abilities here and recognized the role
Jayasuriya played in the victory of a democratic and democratizing concept
developed largely by Ven Maduluwawe Sobitha Thero. Jayasuriya
coordinated these efforts. Its a good and encouraging sign.
Most importantly, Wickremesinghe seems to have understood that he alone
cannot bring about change. He could give direction and probably is the
only person with vision, power and stature that we have at this point to lead
this drive. However, he needs to work with his party as well the other
major political formation, the SLFP or a coalition led by the SLFP.
He has
shown an admirable willingness to take the bi-partisan path, putting aside
all that he had to suffer at the hands of the SLFP or rather the SLFP-led
regimes over the past 21 years.
We are not out of the woods yet. We need a road map and we need the
courage to walk a difficult path where light at the end of the tunnel is so
dim that it is barely visible. As things stand, Ranil Wickremesinghe appears
to be the one individual who has a map and has the will to walk the talk, at
least until the cement dries to the point that the foundation laid on the 8th
of January can hold a sturdy democratic edifice. It must be mentioned that
despite accusations by opponents of being Pro-West Wickremesinghe is
the only Prime Minister who has graduated from a Sri Lankan university. He
is not a chest-thumping nationalist, but his record shows that he is a logical
and not an emotional leader who has the countrys interests at heart.
All things considered we are still in the infant days of reform and thats
inevitable, as we argued above. Infancy is a time of great vulnerability. All
the more reason for patience.
The coalition is still intact, but no one will bet on it gelling into a single,
solid political entity. Wickremesinghe, as the most senior politician in the
country, the most experienced leader and the one individual who has vision
and political will, has an unenviable task ahead of him. He has many easy
ways out. He can be just another ruler and be successful too in terms of
securing power for his party and himself. That will not make history
remember him as a statesman. He has to take the difficult path and has to
convince the people that it is for everyones benefit. That would be his
challenge in the coming months.
By Krishantha Prasad Cooray
--------------------------by
(2015-12-21 20:02:35)

Posted by Thavam