Statistics and DOE

David M. Lyth, Ph.D., C.Q.E.

Department of Industrial &
Manufacturing Engineering
Western Michigan University

Managing by facts
In God we TrustAll others bring data
ISO9000 Auditor

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Data and Quality

What are the most pressing problems in our
department?

What do defects cost?

What causes most defects?

What is the defect removal rate or quality
engineering?

How many defects are severe?

What is the average cost of repairing a
defect?

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Statistical Thinking

All

work occurs in a system of

interconnected processes

Variation exists in all processes

Understanding and reducing
variation are the keys to success

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Sources of Variation in
Production Processes
Materials

INPUTS

Operators

Measurement
Instruments

Methods

PROCESS

OUTPUTS

Tools
Machines

Environment

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Human
Inspection
Performance

Variation

Many

sources of uncontrollable
variation exist (common causes)

Special (assignable) causes of
variation can be recognized and
controlled

Failure to understand these differences
can increase variation in a system
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Problems Created by
Variation

Variation

increases unpredictability.

Variation reduces capacity utilization.

Variation contributes to a bullwhip
effect.

Variation makes it difficult to find root
causes.

Variation makes it difficult to detect
potential problems early.
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Two Fundamental
Management Mistakes
1.

2.

Treating as a special cause any fault,

complaint, mistake, breakdown,
accident or shortage when it actually is
due to common causes
Attributing to common causes any
fault, complaint, mistake, breakdown,
accident or shortage when it actually is
due to a special cause
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Using data

Managing

a process

Understanding a process

Controlling a process

Improving a process

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Collecting data-questions to
answer

What

is the purpose of collecting data?

What data do I need?

How will I collect it?

How will I analyze it?

What conclusion am I attempting to
draw?

How will I present those conclusions to
achieve my objectives?
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Collection problems
Data accuracy

Representative data

Time series data

False data

Mistaken data

Incorrect data

Unavailable data

Useless data

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Ways to classify data

Time

Time

to failure

Development phase

Team creating defect

Activity producing error

Function of the defect

Severity of the defect
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Possible causes

Communication

I didnt understand
what I was supposed to do.

Education I didnt know how to do it

Transcription I was doing it right, but
something went wrong in the process.

Oversight I just forgot.

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Statistics

Descriptive

statistics

Inferential statistics

Estimation

Hypothesis testing

ANOVA

Regression

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Data fitting
Goodness of fit test
2 = (fo-fe)2/fe
Ho: Data fits particular distribution
(specify parameters)
H1: Data does not fits particular
distribution (specify parameters)
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Statistical Methods

Descriptive

statistics

Statistical inference

Predictive statistics

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Statistical Foundations

Random

variables

Probability distributions

Populations and samples

Point estimates

Sampling distributions

Standard error of the mean
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Descriptive statistics

Measures

of central tendency (mean,

median, mode)

Measures of dispersion (variance,
standard deviation, range)

Histogram

Pie

chart

Frequency curve

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Inferential statistics

Estimation

Hypothesis

testing

ANOVA

Regression

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Important Probability
Distributions

Discrete

Binomial

Poisson

Continuous

Normal

Exponential

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Central Limit Theorem

If simple random samples of size n are taken

from any population, the probability distribution of
sample means will be approximately normal as n
becomes large.

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Statistical Tools

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Sampling Methods

Simple

random sampling

Stratified sampling

Systematic sampling

Cluster sampling

Judgment sampling

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Sampling Error

Sampling

error (statistical error)

Nonsampling error (systematic
error)

Factors to consider:

Sample

size

Appropriate sample design

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Excel Tools for Statistics

ToolsData Analysis Descriptive
Statistics

ToolsData AnalysisHistogram

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Enumerative and Analytic

Studies

Enumerative

study analysis of a static

population

Analytic study analysis of a dynamic
time series

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