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Urban Spatial Growth Analysis of Khulna City

Md. Rejaur Rahman

Coordinator & Urban Planner
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC)
House 531/4, Lane 11, Baridhara DOHS
Dhaka - 1206, Bangladesh
Cell: +8801717 087 089
E-mail: reja.83@gmail.com

Abstract
Before 60s or 70s, the process of spatial growth of Khulna city was not so complicated
because the industries solely, have shaped the spatial development. Now Khulna city has
passed its glorious era but till now urban growth and land use change is taking place in a
dynamic ways. This study dealt with the major dynamics of urban spatial growth i.e. land
elevation, road accessibility, land price, location of important structures etc which were
identified as the prevailing factors for urban growth in the City, to have an idea about the
future spatial growth of the city. The study tried to find the answer of the question - what will
be the shape of this city after 20 or 30 year from right now? This study tried to introduce a
model, built by using ArcGIS Model Builder tool which is applicable for the Khulna city in any
time if only the spatial factors are used. This model can be a useful tool for decision making
for the concerned authorities about the expansion strategy and development control in a
sustainable way.

Introduction
Urbanization and urban spatial growth are the result of combination of natural increase of the
urban population and net immigration to urban areas (Firoz, 2004: 27-32). Urbanization can
be regarded from demographic point of view, in terms of the proportion of country’
population living in towns and cities. It is observed that urbanization is very closely linked with
industrialization, commercialization or the overall economic growth and development; and the
process of urbanization exhibits a pattern in which the rate rises steeply as the early stages
of industrialization are reached, and tapers off gradually when the proportion urban beings to
reach a saturation point. Finally as most of the populations become urbanized, urbanization
falls to keep peace with economic development, which is a continuous process.

The urbanization processes in Khulna started in 1836 (Murtaza, 2007). After that the process
is going on. After the liberation war of Bangladesh the urbanization rate was reached its
higher level high (KDA, 2000: 13) but in 2001 the urban population growth rate was 1.25
(Jahan and Rouf, 2007) which was very low than last four decades. The main cause is the
economic decline of the city.

It was not known whether all these different patterns together may lead to an overall pattern -
spatial, functional and demographic. The horizontal dimensions of space are certainly a basic
determinant of population distribution (Batty et al, 2003: 36). Everyone wants to live pretty
close to the city centre. But practically the people are did not do that. The living place are
depends on their social, economic and many others factors. So, the people are trying to least
distance in where there cost effective and suitable area base on working place distance,
house rent, land price, transport accessibility, utility services etc (Masum, 2001: 40-42)

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study tried to identify the influential factors of urban growth. There are mainly two types
of urban growth influencing factors. Those are spatial and non-spatial factors.

Table 1: Category of urban growth factors

Spatial Factors Non-spatial Factors

Land Price Surface

Demographic factors

Road Accessibility

Social factors

Land Elevation

Economic factors

Private Housing

Political factors
Scheme

Source: (Hiraskar, 1989: 27-35; Akter, 1996: 19; Sadia, 2000: 35-38)

To identify urban growth influencing factors the study has conducted a pilot survey. Total
respondent of pilot survey was 48. The higher percentage represents the higher priority of
the influencing factors. Both non-spatial and spatial factors are picked up (table 2).

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For GIS analysis, spatial factors have been separated. Others influencing factors such as
Migration, Social security, Community services facilities, Economic activities were excluded
as the study dealt with only the spatial factors. The short listed spatial factors are:

Influencing Factors Level of influence according to respondent (%)

Land Price 17
Migration 24
Road accessibility 20
Height of Land 18
Social security 2
Private Housing 10
Community services facilities 1
Economic activities 8
Source: Field Survey, 2007

For GIS analysis, spatial factors have been separated. Others influencing factors such as
Migration, Social security, Community services facilities, Economic activities were excluded
as the study dealt with only the spatial factors. The short listed spatial factors are:

. Land Price . Road accessibility

. Land Elevation . Private Housing

RESULT AND DISCUSSION

Weightage of spatial factors by Analytical Hierarchical Process

For spatial analysis by GIS Model Builder needed the weightage of spatial influencing
factors. The Weightage are calculated by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Weightage has
been done by using AHP which considered not only the popular responses but also the
relationship and affection between themselves (Alessio, 2004: 9-16; Vishv, 2003: 5).

First, we need to build a raw matrix from the table 3 and survey updates, where only
variables considering the second option are selected. From the frequencies averaged value
the considerations below are calculated.

If, Variable frequency average > = 0.5, particular raw position matrix value will be 2
Variable frequency average < 0.5, particular raw position matrix value will be 0

Coding the influencing factors

For analysis using AHP needed priority base multiple answers. In this study, 4 is high priority,
3 is medium priority, 2 is normal priority and 1 is low priority. Those priority base data were
inputted in MS Excel sheet. Then compare each data with the other to make the raw matrix.

Table 3: Sample Priority base raw data

Table 4: Raw Matrix

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The table 4 shows the average value of the 142 samples. If we name the column as i and the
row as j and r is the cell value of matrix rij then there will be an equation to be followed to get
the judgment matrix.

rij = [(Ki – Kj) / (Kmax - Kmin)] × (bm - 1) + 1 --------------------------(i) when, Ki>=Kj

rij = 1 / {[(Ki- Kj) / (Kmax - Kmin)] × (bm - 1) + 1} ------------------------(ii) when Ki<=Kj bm =

Kmax + Kmin

Note: “i” and “j” of rij are the correspondent to the “i” and “j” from Ki and Kj. “i” and “j”
respectively represent the coding of row and volume in the judgment matrix in the table 4 Ki
and Kj mean the cumulative value of every row of table 4 In this example, Kmax is 7 and
Kmin is 1 from the table 4. So we can plot the table 5 from the table 4 as the judgment matrix
of the field survey. After summarizing the information, we have got the following 4 by 4 array
judgment matrix.

Table 5: Judgment Matrix

This judgment matrix shows the relation in between two pair of criteria. For example, the
relation in between Land price and Land price is simply 1 as their values are equal. However,
the relation in between Land price and land elevation is 3.33. In the same way, the relation
could be found in between other criteria.

Normalized Matrix
To understand the judgment matrix, there need to normalize of the value. This matrix is the
final output of the AHP. In this matrix each row represents the influence level of the
influencing factors out of 1. [Average values are acceptable]

If we multiply the total value of each criterion, then we will get

the total weight of the influencing factors of urban spatial growth
of Khulna city, which is equal to 1. So, we can draw the table 6
from this normalized value.

Final Weightage of spatial factors (Using AHP)

Using the AHP process, the spatial factors has given a weightage which tells us about the
level of influence of individual factors over the urban growth process. It was seen from the
table 6 that the factor rood accessibility have the higher and private housing scheme have
the lower level of influence.

Table 6: Level of influence of urban spatial growth

Spatial Factors Level of Influence According AHP (%)
Private Housing Scheme 13
Land Price 19
Land Elevation 31
Road Accessibility 37

Land Price
Land price is an important influencing spatial factor to analyze the growth factor. Land price
signifies how housing structures can be easily produced and, thus, should be supplied
elastically to the market. Land price of a property is tightly linked with the land, location and
the amenities which are associated with the property. Land refers not only to the square
footage of the property, but also to intangible attributes (such as the length of the commute to
work, quality as a production factor etc.). Location is also an important factor. Generally the
price of land near the metropolitan areas is higher than the rural one.

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he amenities refer to the different services (e.g. water supply system, gas, electricity etc.),
shopping facilities, transportation & communication facilities, educational facilities etc. The
land price in the metropolitan areas of Khulna is increasing day by day. Available land is
scarce compare to the increasing population rate. So, the primary reason for the increasing
of land price is the increased demand. If the supply of land, skilled building workers,
materials and so on were perfectly elastic, higher demand would not increase prices. But
supply is never perfectly elastic. Land price of an area is also dependent on the local
property taxes, operating costs, interest on capital invested in present and future,
depreciation allowances for these improvements etc. Demand is exceed too much when
people get a suitable land with optimum resources in a minimum price. So, land price is an
important factor to evaluate the growth pattern of an area. Figure 1 represents the land price
surface. White color represent high price and black color represent lower land price. White
and nearly white surface are more potential area for future urban spatial growth.

Road Accessibility
Road accessibility is another important influencing spatial factor to analyze the growth factor.
Accessibility is highly linked with the transportation network. Transportation is essentially a
service which enables people, firms, and various other entities to carry on activities at sites
selected for these purposes in separated locations. Concentrations of people, firms, and
other human institutions can be located in an area if the condition of accessibility of that area
is excellent. Some supporting activities are needed for any kind of large activity (e.g.
industrial, commercial activities etc.) and these human activities can be assured by the
higher degree of accessibility. A better design of circulation systems can maximized
accessibility for essential movements between linked activities, giving due consideration to
safety, comfort, amenity as well as cost. For the further development of an area accessibility
is needed to be assured first. So, road accessibility to the potential growth area needed to
explore first to see the further growth pattern or development in the Khulna city.

Fig 2: Road Accessibility

Figure 2 represents the road accessibility. White color represents high accessibility and black
color represents lower accessibility. White and nearly white surface are more potential area
for future urban spatial growth. Fig 2: Road Accessibility

Land Elevation
The spatial growth of Khulna city is explained by its topography. There existing natural levee
on either side of the Bhairab-Rupsha River. Height of the levee varies from 7 to 14 feet
above MSL and offer excellent opportunities for human settlement development. This levee
extends about 0.5 km to 4 km inside from the river on both side. After the construction of

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Khulna-Jessore road and development of economic activities, the city started to take shape
along Khulna-Jessore corridor.

Next to levee follows flood plain, about 4kms inside (western side) from the river, following
the river alignment. The height of the plains, on average, is about 4ft. to 5ft. above MSL
Beyond the flood plains. Land elevation is an important factor to see the growth pattern in an
area. The low land can not stimulate the growth of an area. The water logged area is not
suitable for the housing structures. Again the flood plain land stimulates the growth very
quickly. Figure 3 represents the land elevation of Khulna city. More suitable elevation for
future urban expansion is not less than 5 ft, because the areas having elevation less than 5 ft
will be water logged.

Private Housing Developments

Khulna city is strategically located in an important hub so far its development potentialities
are concerned. The Khulna Bypass that is under construction has become the main
influencing factor of residential development in this area. Khulna University is built up on
agricultural land with an area of more than 101 acre. This infrastructure has patronized
substantial residential development around the same causing massive land use change.

Fig 4: Private Housing Development and potential zones of future development

However, the main characteristics of the private housing projects of Khulna are as follows:
Housing demand is sharply increasing
The market is highly localized
The business is durable but not area specific within the local jurisdiction
Non orderly growth of private housing projects due to the lack of legal bindings
Surrounding area of the private housing is highly potential for future urban expansion of
Khulna city (figure 4).

Flow Diagram of Model Builder

All the spatial factors were put down in the model building process to obtain the most
potential zones for future development. Slope analysis, gradient analysis and Euclidean
Distance analysis were done to reclassify them (figure 5 and 6).

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Euclidean Distance and Slope Operation

The Euclidean distance functions describe each cell's relationship to a source or a set of
sources. Euclidean used to indentify nearest distance of any feature. For road feature in the
analysis used Euclidean distance for identify nearest distance from the roads. Slope
identifies the steepest downhill slope for a location on a surface. Slope is calculated for each
triangle in TINs and for each cell in rasters. For a TIN, this is the maximum rate of change in
elevation across each triangle. For rasters, it is the maximum rate of change in elevation over
each cell and its eight neighbors.

Fig 5: Euclidean Distance and Slope Operation in Model builder interface

Reclassify Operation in Model Builder

The reclassification functions reclassify or change cell values to alternative values using a
variety of methods. The functions are designed to allow you to easily change many values on
an input raster to desired, specified, or alternative values. Reclassify tools used in this
analysis for matching the suitability analysis.

Fig 6: Reclassify Operation in Model Builder

Final Output Model

This model can be used at any time for Khulna City to predict the potential areas for future
urban growth if these four spatial influencing factors are used (Fig 7).

Fig 7: Spatial factors and weighted overlay map in the model builder

Total model building process was explored in figure 8.

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Fig 8: Growth Model in GIS Model Builder

Potential Areas for Future Urban Growth

The figure shows the final potential areas where white and nearly white surface is more
potential areas for future urban spatial growth of Khulna city. It is clearly seen that the city will
take major shape in the western and north-western side.

Fig 9: Potential Areas for future urban growth of Khulna City

Conclusion
Metropolitan cities of Bangladesh are expanding fast. But until now there have low level
urban spatial growth control and management. As a result the spatial growths of cities are
uncontrolled and haphazard. It is observed that the city is expanding fast towards the fringe
areas, getting the backup strength from the activities in the city periphery. Khulna-jessore by-
pass and Khulna University areas are the main attraction point for housing development in
the western side of Khulna city. In recent Khulna city Corporation has agreed to extent its
boundary. This will leave an impact in further urban growth. Business activities are flourishing
in the north and north western part and Rupsha bridge connects the eastern part of Khulna
city experiencing frequent urban growth. Zoning and subdivision regulation are most
frequently used to prevent or control haphazard growth and sprawl, but it is so difficult to
maintain properly because of high urbanization rate, political factors, lack of authorized
institutions involvement and rural urban migration is the major cause of population growth
which results the haphazard growth and development. There is urgent need to formulate a
comprehensive plan for controlled those uneven and unbalanced growth. Otherwise the
future management of the city and expansion of the utility service network must be critical.

Reference

Akter, M. 1996. 'Trend of Physical Growth of Khulna City', Unpublished BURP Thesis,
Urban and Rural Planning Discipline, Khulna University, Khulna. pp. 19

Alessio I. 2004. 'Development of an Intelligent Tutoring System for AHP (Analytic
Hierarchy Process', WWZ Forum, Petersgraben 51, CH – 4003 Basel, p. 9-16

Batty et al 2003. 'Traffic, Urban Growth and suburban Sprawl', Centre for Advanced
Spatial Analysis, University Collage London, 1-19 Torrington Place, London WC1E
6BT, UK, p-6

Firoz, A. B. M. 2004. 'Urban Growth Dynamics of Khulna City: (A study on Ward No.
09, 20 and 24)', Unpublished BURP Thesis, Urban and Rural Planning Discipline,
Khulna University, Khulna. pp. 27-32

Hiraskar, G. K. 1989. Fundamentals of Town Planning. New Delhi: DhanpatRai
Publications (P) Ltd.

Jahan, S. and Rouf, M. A. 2007. 'Spatial and Temporal Pattern of Urbanization of
Bangladesh', Urbanization in Bangladesh, Bangladesh Institute of Planners,
Bangladesh.

Khulna Development Authority (KDA) 2000. 'Structure Plan Master Plan and Detailed
Area Plan for Khulna City, Vol-1', Ministry of Public Works, Government of People’s
Republic of Bangladesh. pp. 13

Masum, M. B. 2001. 'Prospects and Efficiency of GIS Data Models in Planning

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Urban Spatial Growth Analysis of Khulna City Page 8 of 8

Applications: A Case Study on Khulna City', Unpublished BURP Thesis, Urban and
Rural Planning Discipline, Khulna University, Khulna. pp. 40-42

Murtaza, M. G. 2007. 'A Safe City is a Just City-The Context of Khulna City', paper
presented in world habitant day-2007, organized by Khulna Development Authority
(KDA), Khulna, Bangladesh.

Sadia, B. 2000. 'Physical Growth of Khulna City', Unpublished BURP Thesis, Urban
and Rural Planning Discipline, Khulna University, Khulna. pp. 35-38

Vishv, M. 2003. 'A Trust Model for the Analytic Hierarchy Process', School of
Computing GPO Box 252-100, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001
AUSTRALIA.

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