LCC Simple Monte Carlo Simulation Using A Fix When Broken Strateg

For MonteCarloSimulationSTM
Version 1.0 January 15, 2007 Copyright 2007 by Barringer & Associates, Inc.

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file, is acceptance of notices show below.
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Software By:
H. Paul Barringer, P.E.

Barringer & Associates, Inc.

P.O. Box 3985, Humble, TX 77347-3985 USA
Phone: 281-852-6810
FAX: 281-852-3749
e-mail: hpaul@barringer1.com
http://www.barringer1.com

LCC Simple Monte Carlo Simulation For MonteCarloSimulationSTM

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This spreadsheet file is usable with ExcelTM version 2003 and above. The simulation macros may not work in lower revision
Excel is a trademark of Microsoft Corporation. MonteCarloSimulationS is trademark pending by Barringer & Associates, Inc.

Information in this software file is subject to change without notice for correction of errors and change of features. Barringer
Associates, Inc. does not represent a commitment to notify users of any changes. This software is furnished for demonstrati
purposes only. Copies of this demonstration software must acknowledge Barringer & Associates, Inc. as the original source
code. Copies must also include all narrative boxes with notices and instructions.

Examples in this file are intended for training and education in the use of Monte Carlo simulations. No warranty of accuracy,
applicability, correctness of use, or throuroughness of purpose is stated or implied for this software. As in the case of all
engineering tools, you must exercise good judgment in the use of these software tools for safe and responsible results using
these Monte Carlo concepts. Use sound engineering and business judgments when studying any simulation even using
probabilitics calculations. A full set of MonteCarloSimulationS for EXCEL 2003 spreadsheets are available at a price.

This software shows, with a few simple models, how to study the outcome of engineering and business problems using rand
events and engineering characteristics of how things fail. Results of Monte Carlo simulations are always different for each tri
however, results from many trials will show an overall direction and trend. No amount of simulations, based on wrong data o
wrong concepts, can produce accurate simulations results even when wrappped in the cloak of "computer results".

Reduce uncertainties in your results. Study your data carefully which initiates your Monte Carlo studies. Understand how th
data was obtained and what it is saying to you. Project uncertainties and unknowns in a prudent and wise manner. If your m
doesn't produce believable results, try again until you produce real life results.

Use WinSMITH WeibullTM ($480), WinSMITH VisualTM ($380), which are statistical software packages trademarked by Fult
Findings, to study errors from multiple iterations. These software packages are available for sale from Barringer & Associate
at the modest prices shown above plus shipping and handling. Call 281-852-6810 for details.
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time by Buyer.

IN NO EVENT WILL SELLER BE LIABLE FOR INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES, FOR

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Warranty
EXCEPT AS PROVIDED IN THIS SOFTWARE, BARRINGER & ASSOCIATES, INC. ("SELLER") MAKES NO WARRANTY O
REPRESENTATIN OF ANY KIND, EXPRESSE OR IMPLIED, NOR DOES THE SELLER MAKE ANY AFFIRMATION OF FAC
OR PROMISE WHICH EXTENDS BEYOND MODELS DESCRIBED IN THIS SOFTWARE. ALL IMPLIED WARRANTIES,
INCLUDING ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, ARE DISCLAIM

Seller disclaims any responsibility for model predictions which are based upon incorrect information or methods supplied at a
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TO BUYER, FOR ANY CAUSE WHATSOEVER, AND REGARDLESS OF THE FORM OF ACTION, EXCEED ANY AMOUNT
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The definition of terms used, the interpretation of the Software, and the rights of the parties will be construed under and gove
by the laws of the State of Texas.
HPB January 15, 2007

Broken Strategy

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ing to other spreadsheets in this

w below.

Inc.

347-3985 USA
281-852-3749

ock). Do not delete this sheet,

not work in lower revisions.

rringer & Associates, Inc.

ge of features. Barringer &

furnished for demonstration
nc. as the original source of the

No warranty of accuracy,
As in the case of all
responsible results using
simulation even using
vailable at a price.

ness problems using random

ways different for each trial,
s, based on wrong data or
mputer results".

dies. Understand how the

nd wise manner. If your model

ages trademarked by Fulton

om Barringer & Associates, Inc

MAKES NO WARRANTY OR
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URPOSE, ARE DISCLAIMED.
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re, or caused by anyone
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construed under and governed

Set up for Monte Carlo simulation

FIX WHEN BROKEN REPAIR STRATEGY

<--You can change items in yellow

Input Data For Simulation

Item
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
20
12%
38%

Cost Element Name

(Labor + Matl's + Expense)
Electricity, $/yr
Maint. PMs, $/yr
Operations PMs, $/yr
Waste Cost, $/yr
Seals
Shaft
Impeller
Housing
Pump Bearing
Coupling
Motor Rotor
Motor Stator
Motor Bearings

years

30,000.00 <--Capital $'s

Cost $/failure
or $/year

$ 16,500.00
$
600.00
$
350.00
$
100.00
4.00
1.40
$
3,800.00
18.00
1.20
$
1,400.00
12.00
2.50
$
2,800.00
18.00
1.30
$
5,400.00
4.00
1.30
$
1,500.00
8.00
2.00
$
2,000.00
25.00
1.00
$
3,000.00
25.00
1.00
$
8,000.00
20.00
1.30
$
1,500.00
0
0.00
0.00
$
<--Project life (<= 35 years)
Iterations to complete-->
<--Discount rate (usually ~12%) Number of iterations accumulated-->
<--Tax rate (usually ~38%)
Net Present Value-->
For fixed costs per
year items.

Downtime
Hours

No downtime hours or cost

for annual cost elements
8
10
8
14
8
8
48
240
8
0
1,000,000
Err:523
Err:523

Annual failure rate-->

Annual downtime hours-->
Annual Availability-->
Annual Reliability-->

Annualized Costs for Life Cycle Cost

Life Cycle Cost Worksheet

Discount Rate (%)-->
12%
Err:523

Capital Costs:

Net Present Values Based on Monte Carlo Simulations

Capital Acquisition Costs

Acquisition Costs:
Program Management Costs
Engineering Design Costs
Engineering Data Costs
Spare Parts & Logistics Costs
Facilities & Construction Costs
Initial Training Costs
Technical Data Costs
Documentation Costs
Annual recuring costs
Other periodic costs
Disposal Costs

Savings:
Annual Savings (use positive #s)

NPV & IRR Calculations:

Capital equipment

Net Present Values Ba

Costs
Savings
Straight Line Depreciation
Profit Before Taxes
Tax Provision @ 38% Of Profit Before Tax
Net Income can be profit or loss
Add Back Depreciation
Cash Flow (Net Income + Depreciation)
Discount Factors @ 12%
Present Value
Net Present Value
Err:523
Internal Rate Return
Year-->

tems in yellow
Random Ages-To-Failure for 50 failures --> Look to the right for cum failures
$/hour Of
Downtime

2.37
19.24
10.99
11.08
5.50
5.54
17.39
1.70
22.44

0.86
2.14
14.89
28.53
4.16
4.97
28.45
1.87
1.89

2.57
2.95
9.78
39.51
4.35
5.29
12.78
8.06
9.17

4.79
35.93
12.56
1.17
6.12
8.77
4.92
40.72
33.53

o downtime hours or cost

or annual cost elements

Cumulative Failures
Recorded For Each Year
From Monte Carlo
Simulations

100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0
2:51:56 PM
Err:523

Annual failure rate-->

Annual downtime hours-->
Annual Availability-->
Annual Reliability-->

<--Start Time For Simulation

<--Time Remaining To Complete Simulation
Project Year Of Replacement - Covers 50 years
1

140292
31120
2012
23240
161801
15908
40044
39969
20267
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

216768
39897
9316
33914
223757
45292
39461
Err:523
29228
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

Err:523
44014
19317
39213
247681
72803
39722
40051
34230
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

Err:523
47124
31526
42846
259336
96198
40246
Err:523
37891
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

Project Year Of Annualized Costs ($) - Covers 50 years

Annualized Costs From Failures

Recorded For Each Year From
Monte Carlo Simulations

osts for Life Cycle Cost

$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

Project Life (35 yrs max)-->

<--Net Present Value

$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

$
$
$
$

20

Tax Provision (%)-->

<--Internal Rate Of Return

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

$30,000.00

Err:523

0
$30,000

Err:523

Err:523

Err:523

$0

Err:523
$0
$1,500
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
$1,500
Err:523
0.8929
Err:523

$0
$0
$0
-$30,000
1.0000
-$30,000

Err:523
$0
$1,500
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
$1,500
Err:523
0.7972
Err:523

Err:523
$0
$1,500
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
$1,500
Err:523
0.7118
Err:523

Err:523
$0
$1,500
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
$1,500
Err:523
0.6355
Err:523

<--Requires at least one positive and one negative number in the present value row 32
0

5.68
4.64
7.03
6.96
4.02
3.97
56.76
20.05
9.75

3.33
41.84
7.71
29.10
3.56
9.77
35.12
4.80
13.79

5.41
1.38
2.34
14.99
1.94
3.90
13.06
56.20
1.80

0.23
26.02
3.21
19.96
2.61
12.97
18.42
5.54
33.41

1.04
32.36
11.03
19.70
2.76
4.83
11.91
46.21
30.48

269306
49202
45040
45594
265103
115002
39873
40095
39815
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

Err:523
50615
57748
47816
Err:523
Err:523
39933
39691
41909
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

274061
51323
69845
49799
269295
137464
40400
39808
43528
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

274113
52759
80705
51385
270316
141929
40083
39743
45212
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

275556
53923
89471
52627
270684
144815
39904
40109
46334
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

5
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

38%

Err:523

Err:523

Err:523

Err:523

Err:523

Err:523
$0
$1,500
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
$1,500
Err:523
0.5674
Err:523

Err:523
$0
$1,500
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
$1,500
Err:523
0.5066
Err:523

Err:523
$0
$1,500
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
$1,500
Err:523
0.4523
Err:523

Err:523
$0
$1,500
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
$1,500
Err:523
0.4039
Err:523

Err:523
$0
$1,500
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
$1,500
Err:523
0.3606
Err:523

10

11

12

13

14

1.78
13.98
6.30
5.09
1.47
17.26
20.51
22.69
31.07

3.09
37.55
21.40
12.13
5.99
13.85
29.44
0.44
20.90

0.98
17.01
11.98
22.10
5.58
8.60
2.86
6.34
6.69

3.79
3.58
9.39
8.33
3.82
8.57
16.45
3.06
37.57

4.66
16.43
17.07
17.18
4.95
10.74
27.47
36.13
8.65

10

11

12

13

14

274375
54024
96354
53776
Err:523
145500
39916
40028
47492
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

Err:523
54895
Err:523
54545
271317
Err:523
40235
40118
48416
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

273948
55623
101595
Err:523
271144
143024
39985
Err:523
48877
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

275505
55799
101972
55843
270365
142188
40005
40166
49701
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

274180
56234
100801
56587
270755
140568
39972
40113
50634
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

10
$
$
$
$

11

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

10

$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

11

Err:523

10

12
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

12

Err:523

11

13
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

13

Err:523

12

14
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

14

Err:523

13

Err:523

14

Err:523
$0
$1,500
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
$1,500
Err:523
0.3220
Err:523

10

Err:523
$0
$1,500
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
$1,500
Err:523
0.2875
Err:523

11

Err:523
$0
$1,500
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
$1,500
Err:523
0.2567
Err:523

12

Err:523
$0
$1,500
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
$1,500
Err:523
0.2292
Err:523

13

Err:523
$0
$1,500
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
$1,500
Err:523
0.2046
Err:523

14

15

16

17

18

19

4.45
37.86
15.73
15.76
0.51
11.58
50.32
7.22
4.45

1.47
3.22
6.08
17.11
6.28
6.92
0.48
24.61
13.32

5.57
2.99
14.41
5.11
6.50
5.73
1.24
13.77
34.36

3.26
6.90
4.54
3.33
5.80
17.13
22.23
49.76
6.03

10.95
4.44
10.99
4.49
1.44
4.40
8.80
20.37
17.10

15

16

17

18

19

274063
56429
98578
56855
Err:523
140040
39860
39860
50998
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

273552
56915
96434
58173
270197
Err:523
40017
40035
51071
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

Err:523
57170
94937
57958
270852
140559
40059
40136
51918
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

274025
57620
92715
58017
270401
140817
Err:523
39954
51768
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

274062
57462
92217
58970
271908
141140
39697
39989
52211
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

15
$
$
$
$

16

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

15

$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

16

Err:523

15

17
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

17

Err:523

16

18
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

18

Err:523

17

19
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

19

Err:523

18

Err:523

19

Err:523
$0
$1,500
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
$1,500
Err:523
0.1827
Err:523

15

Err:523
$0
$1,500
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
$1,500
Err:523
0.1631
Err:523

16

Err:523
$0
$1,500
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
$1,500
Err:523
0.1456
Err:523

17

Err:523
$0
$1,500
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
$1,500
Err:523
0.1300
Err:523

18

Err:523
$0
$1,500
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
$1,500
Err:523
0.1161
Err:523

19

20

21

22

23

24

1.66
5.62
12.02
13.44
1.98
3.49
47.27
26.63
11.20

6.09
24.93
7.60
7.63
2.71
3.30
8.21
51.57
3.91

2.19
6.72
9.21
32.76
0.63
12.23
18.67
4.50
9.79

1.89
5.36
20.57
19.39
4.80
7.50
45.08
27.79
38.55

2.13
39.41
7.50
22.63
5.66
5.12
15.87
7.31
28.16

20

21

22

23

24

Err:523
Err:523
92114
58829
270054
141028
39621
40354
52453
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

273813
58175
92237
58761
Err:523
141229
40221
40149
52591
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

274266
Err:523
92715
59287
270827
141065
39421
39930
52919
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

274090
58489
93309
58795
271372
140340
39899
39875
Err:523
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

274361
58795
93043
59416
270255
140772
40124
40221
52741
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

20
$
$
$
$

21

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

20

$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

21

Err:523

20

22
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

22

Err:523

21

23
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

23

Err:523

22

24
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

24

Err:523

23

Err:523

24

Err:523
$0
$1,500
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
$1,500
Err:523
0.1037
Err:523

20

$0

21

$0

22

$0

23

$0

24

25

26

27

28

29

0.79
9.39
17.44
14.82
0.82
3.44
4.67
3.15
12.80

8.38
10.59
19.85
17.65
0.83
3.05
46.63
20.89
39.48

1.76
2.83
13.75
16.76
1.95
9.86
14.36
24.22
5.80

1.00
31.99
7.25
26.63
4.13
6.35
18.26
8.84
10.94

11.42
15.09
11.05
16.59
2.10
1.99
19.37
41.34
12.60

25

26

27

28

29

273679
Err:523
93370
59135
Err:523
Err:523
39883
40250
Err:523
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

Err:523
58211
Err:523
60257
270197
140925
40077
40356
53567
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

Err:523
58418
94346
59746
269201
141228
39913
40202
53888
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

274548
58364
94242
59786
Err:523
140816
39992
40354
53858
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

Err:523
58779
94615
60162
271170
Err:523
39882
40081
54146
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

25
$
$
$
$

26

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

25

$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

26

Err:523

25

27
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

27

Err:523

26

28
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

28

Err:523

27

29
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

29

Err:523

28

Err:523

29

$0

25

$0

26

$0

27

$0

28

$0

29

30

31

32

33

34

0.25
24.76
6.29
1.26
2.57
4.97
13.07
2.02
9.84

6.25
4.33
13.79
2.70
8.19
7.47
46.84
7.67
10.75

4.38
16.81
7.34
2.61
5.04
1.36
2.10
15.37
1.74

1.65
13.83
18.48
11.65
2.65
3.44
82.67
8.40
22.96

5.66
12.85
12.18
8.50
7.14
4.41
1.87
21.80
25.52

30

31

32

33

34

275069
59063
94399
60174
Err:523
140828
40266
39840
53476
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

274234
58803
93949
60168
270989
141357
40095
39670
53704
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

Err:523
58999
93884
59928
270494
140500
39763
40186
53723
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

Err:523
59390
93759
59962
Err:523
141108
39909
40078
53627
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

274226
58799
93698
59737
272360
141250
39997
40216
Err:523
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

30
$
$
$
$

31

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

30

$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

31

Err:523

30

32
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

32

Err:523

31

33
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

33

Err:523

32

34
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

34

Err:523

33

Err:523

34

$0

30

$0

31

$0

32

$0

33

$0

34

35

36

37

38

39

6.25
17.47
23.07
10.93
4.45
7.81
8.21
54.68
27.94

4.75
4.09
3.06
35.50
7.61
3.39
29.81
71.16
16.45

6.37
25.70
11.99
8.07
2.75
5.15
27.59
70.33
21.79

1.60
10.98
13.32
17.48
0.72
11.89
15.33
5.88
38.33

2.84
3.24
3.47
26.81
1.85
9.31
58.01
76.15
6.94

35

36

37

38

39

274288
58576
93855
59958
270980
141339
40092
40044
53898
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

Err:523
58593
Err:523
60247
Err:523
140934
40120
39895
53906
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

274604
58921
94131
59956
Err:523
141295
39994
40092
53927
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

274156
58685
93750
59939
270432
140879
40063
39726
54082
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

274039
59240
93786
60254
271182
Err:523
40150
40105
54516
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

35
$
$
$
$

36

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

35

Err:523

35

$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

37
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

38
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

39
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

$0

35

40

41

42

43

44

8.33
2.28
7.24
23.09
2.58
13.44
14.62
7.23
37.55

4.45
1.09
10.65
6.01
2.27
9.17
15.76
38.58
5.03

6.65
7.66
8.10
9.60
4.40
9.37
90.98
64.01
12.83

5.66
11.23
17.25
10.85
6.33
10.24
33.71
19.30
35.19

8.90
4.20
14.34
8.21
4.28
8.66
19.05
8.79
6.99

40

41

42

43

44

274276
58953
94240
Err:523
270157
140478
39886
40139
53946
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

Err:523
59536
93934
59937
271149
141007
39962
40217
53867
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

273988
58871
94244
59948
270992
141378
39906
39661
54158
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

274403
59134
93731
60062
Err:523
Err:523
40099
39995
53678
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

274265
58965
93364
60079
271195
140944
40150
39983
53869
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

40
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

41
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

42
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

43
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

44
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

45

46

47

48

49

4.51
12.64
11.52
27.40
0.83
8.67
16.62
30.37
38.33

6.28
8.10
11.30
14.81
0.88
7.11
36.73
0.06
17.09

1.14
73.96
14.00
0.50
3.41
6.99
2.58
30.49
12.55

1.26
6.91
5.11
8.08
1.80
2.44
27.82
24.37
13.15

1.02
34.74
25.88
4.34
4.16
7.39
16.67
5.62
4.84

45

46

47

48

49

274996
59396
93436
60590
270683
141208
39814
40050
54067
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

Err:523
59028
94295
60118
270388
140659
Err:523
39965
53674
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

Err:523
59201
94087
60131
270330
141653
39837
40118
54410
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

274114
58972
93746
59784
271591
141337
40067
39620
54203
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

273836
59216
Err:523
60093
Err:523
141511
40051
39858
54093
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

45
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

46
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

47
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

48
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

49
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

Cum Ages-To-Failure (years) --> Look to the right for failures put into correct time bucke
50

3.68
5.96
10.90
31.10
2.66
7.35
76.86
9.09
0.29

2.37
19.24
10.99
11.08
5.50
5.54
17.39
1.70
22.44

3.23
21.38
25.87
39.61
9.66
10.52
45.85
3.57
24.33

5.80
24.34
35.66
79.12
14.01
15.81
58.63
11.63
33.50

10.59
60.27
48.22
80.29
20.13
24.58
63.54
52.35
67.03

16.27
64.91
55.25
87.24
24.15
28.55
120.30
72.40
76.78

19.61
106.74
62.96
116.34
27.71
38.33
155.43
77.20
90.57

25.02
108.13
65.30
131.33
29.65
42.23
168.48
133.39
92.37

Use this information for reset of macros

50

274104
59151
94121
60392
270439
140275
40080
39866
53995
0
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

50
$
$
$
$

16,500.00
600.00
350.00
100.00
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523
Err:523

ut into correct time buckets

8

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

25.25
134.15
68.52
151.30
32.26
55.20
186.90
138.93
125.78

26.29
166.51
79.55
171.00
35.02
60.03
198.81
185.14
156.26

28.08
180.49
85.85
176.09
36.49
77.29
219.32
207.83
187.32

31.17
218.04
107.25
188.22
42.48
91.13
248.76
208.27
208.22

32.15
235.05
119.23
210.32
48.06
99.73
251.62
214.61
214.91

35.94
238.63
128.62
218.65
51.88
108.30
268.07
217.67
252.48

40.60
255.06
145.69
235.83
56.83
119.04
295.54
253.80
261.13

45.05
292.92
161.42
251.59
57.35
130.61
345.86
261.02
265.58

46.52
296.14
167.49
268.71
63.63
137.53
346.35
285.63
278.91

52.08
299.13
181.90
273.82
70.14
143.26
347.59
299.40
313.27

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

55.34
306.03
186.44
277.15
75.93
160.40
369.82
349.17
319.30

66.30
310.47
197.43
281.64
77.38
164.80
378.62
369.54
336.40

67.96
316.09
209.45
295.09
79.35
168.29
425.89
396.17
347.60

74.05
341.01
217.05
302.72
82.07
171.59
434.10
447.74
351.51

76.24
347.73
226.26
335.48
82.70
183.82
452.77
452.24
361.30

78.13
353.09
246.83
354.87
87.50
191.31
497.86
480.03
399.85

80.26
392.51
254.33
377.49
93.16
196.44
513.73
487.35
428.00

81.05
401.90
271.77
392.31
93.98
199.88
518.41
490.50
440.80

89.43
412.49
291.62
409.96
94.81
202.93
565.04
511.39
480.28

91.18
415.33
305.36
426.72
96.76
212.78
579.40
535.61
486.08

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

92.18
447.32
312.61
453.36
100.89
219.13
597.65
544.45
497.02

103.60
462.41
323.66
469.94
103.00
221.12
617.02
585.79
509.62

103.85
487.17
329.95
471.20
105.56
226.09
630.09
587.81
519.46

110.10
491.50
343.74
473.90
113.75
233.56
676.93
595.48
530.21

114.49
508.31
351.08
476.51
118.80
234.92
679.03
610.85
531.95

116.14
522.14
369.56
488.16
121.45
238.36
761.70
619.25
554.91

121.80
534.99
381.75
496.66
128.59
242.77
763.57
641.05
580.42

128.05
552.46
404.81
507.59
133.04
250.58
771.78
695.73
608.36

132.79
556.55
407.88
543.09
140.65
253.97
801.59
766.89
624.81

139.16
582.25
419.87
551.16
143.40
259.13
829.18
837.22
646.59

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

140.77
593.24
433.19
568.64
144.13
271.01
844.51
843.10
684.92

143.61
596.47
436.66
595.45
145.97
280.33
902.51
919.25
691.86

151.94
598.75
443.90
618.54
148.56
293.76
917.13
926.48
729.42

156.39
599.84
454.55
624.55
150.83
302.94
932.89
965.06
734.45

163.04
607.51
462.65
634.15
155.22
312.31
1023.87
1029.07
747.28

168.70
618.74
479.89
644.99
161.55
322.55
1057.58
1048.38
782.47

177.60
622.94
494.23
653.21
165.83
331.22
1076.63
1057.17
789.46

182.11
635.58
505.75
680.60
166.66
339.88
1093.25
1087.54
827.78

188.39
643.68
517.04
695.41
167.54
346.99
1129.98
1087.60
844.88

189.53
717.64
531.05
695.91
170.95
353.99
1132.57
1118.09
857.43

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Number of failures recorded in each year of operation

48

49

50

190.79
724.55
536.16
703.98
172.75
356.43
1160.38
1142.46
870.58

191.81
759.29
562.04
708.32
176.91
363.81
1177.06
1148.08
875.42

195.49
765.24
572.94
739.41
179.57
371.16
1253.91
1157.17
875.71

48

49

50

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0

1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

1
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

1
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
0

2
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0

1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0

Use this colum for reset of macros

47

48

49

50

1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

10

11

12

13

14

15

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

46

47

48

49

50

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Cost is from Monte Carlo Simulation, H59:BE59

# iterations--> 1000000
Year-->
1
2
3
Cost--> $19,003 $19,548 $19,823

4
$20,010

5
$20,142

6
$20,235

7
$20,312

40

50

8
$20,364

Cost vs Time
$21,000
$20,500
$/Year

$20,000
$19,500
$19,000
$18,500
$18,000
0

10

20

30
Years

60

9
$20,413

10
$20,436

11
$20,453

12
$20,456

13
$20,468

14
$20,462

15
$20,455

16
$20,457

17
$20,461

18
$20,449

19
$20,456

20
$20,459

21
$20,457

22
$20,459

23
$20,459

24
$20,464

25
$20,464

26
$20,469

27
$20,472

28
$20,474

29
$20,472

30
$20,474

31
$20,470

32
$20,469

33
$20,471

34
$20,474

35
$20,471

36
$20,470

37
$20,473

38
$20,467

39
$20,475

40
$20,471

41
$20,475

42
$20,469

43
$20,471

44
$20,470

45
$20,476

46
$20,467

47
$20,476

48
$20,468

49
$20,470

50
$20,470