Estimating accuracy and

uncertainty analysis approach

Errors and Uncertainty

Errors are a property of measurement from various elements:
1. Individual instruments
2. The approach used
- It is a difference between the value assigned by our
measurement and the true value of the variable
Uncertainty is a property of the result. Here we present a
systematic approach for identifying, quantifying, and
combining the estimates of the errors of a measurement
in a way that estimates the uncertainty in the final result.

The task of uncertainty

analysis:
Use available information to estimate the
uncertainty range, ux, in the interval
estimate of the true value:

(P%)
For current analysis, assume that the true
value, x is constant (time independent

The best estimate of the true value sought in a measurement is

provided by its simple mean value and the uncertainty in that
value,
x = x ux
Uncertainty analysis is the method used to quantify ux the term. Certain
assumptions are implicit in an uncertainty analysis:
1.

The test objectives are known and the measurement itself is a clearly
defined process.

2.

Any known corrections for systematic error are already applied, in which
case the systematic uncertainty assigned is the uncertainty of the
correction. Random errors can not be corrected.

3.

Unless stated, the systematic errors are assumed to be independent

(uncorrelated) of each other. Random errors are uncorrelated by their
nature.

4.

Data are obtained under fixed operating conditions.

5.

The engineers have some experience with the system components.

Two main types of uncertainty

evaluation:
Statistical Uncertainty analysis (Type Ain NIST terminology)
based on
!series of repeated measurements, and
!calibration tests
Judgment based Uncertainty Analysis(Type Bin NIST
terminology) based on
!previous measurement data,
!experience with relevant materials and instruments,
!manufacturer's specifications,
!data provided in calibration and other reports, and
!uncertainties assigned to reference data taken from
handbooks.

How do we combine errors:

Worst Case Scenario Method:

Root squares sum (RSS) Method.

We will always use the RSS method.

Design-Stage Uncertainty
!We apply design-stage uncertainty
analysis when we dont have the
system yet, or didnt test it.
!We either rely on the manufacturers
data, or on our own estimates
!Major facilities may need to be built
and equipment ordered with
considerable lead time.

 !It is useful for selecting instruments,

selecting measurement techniques, and
obtaining an appropriate estimate of the
uncertainty likely to exist in the
measured data.
!At this point, the measurement system
and associated procedures are but a
concept.
!Usually little is known about the
instruments, and in many cases they
are still pictures in a catalog.

Instrument errors are combined from the

manufacturers specs. Textbook
example:
Instrument errors are combined from
the manufacturers specs. Textbook
example:

Stages of judgement-based uncertainty

evaluation:
Design stage
Calibration stage
Data acquisition stage
Data reduction stage

Design stage uncertainty analysis

-Refers to the initial analysis performed prior to the measurement,
selecting measurements techniques and obtaining an approximate estimate
of the uncertainty likely to exist in the measured data.
- Even when all errors are zero, a measured value must be affected by our
ability to resolve the information provided by the instrument. We call this
the zero-order uncertainty of the instrument, uo
- From the manufacturers statement concerning instrument error, we
assign this as instrument uncertainty, uc

Example 5.1 and 5.2, refer page

152-154
EXAMPLE 5.1
Consider the force measuring instrument described by the
following catalog data. Provide an estimate of the
uncertainty attributable to this instrument and the
instrument design-stage uncertainty.
o Resolution: 0.25 N
o Range: 0 to l00 N
o Linearity: within 0.20 N over range
o Hysteresis: within 0.30 N over range

Example 5.1 and 5.2, refer page

152-154
A voltmeter is to be used to measure the output from a pressure transducer as an electrical signal. The
nominal pressure is expected to be about 3 psi (3 lb/in2). Estimate the design- stage uncertainty in
this combination. The following information is available:
The Voltmeter

Resolution: l0 V

Accuracy: within 0.001 % of reading

Transducer

Range: +5 psi

Sensitixity: l V/psi

lnput powcr: l0 VDC +1%

Output: +5 V

Linearity: within 2.5 1nV/psi ox er range

Sensitivity: within 2 rnV/psi over range

Resolution: negligible
ASSUMPTIONS: Values representative of instrument at 95% probability
FIND uc for each device and ud for the measurement system

Error Sources
Potential sources of errors in measurement:
1. Calibration errors reduces the uncertainty in
the calibration results to more acceptable values
2. Data acquisition errors- errors that arise during
the actual act of measurement
3. Data reduction errors- the use of curve fits and
correlations with their associated unknowns
introduces data-reduction errors into the reported
test results

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Systematic and random errors

Systematic error
-also known as bias error: remains constant in repeated
measurements under fixed operating conditions

-May cause a high or low estimate of the true value

-Can be estimated by comparison. Various methodologies
can be utilized 1) calibration, 2) concomitant
methodology, 3) interlaboratory comparisons, or 4)
experience

Systematic and random errors

Random error
-Also called precision error, is affected by the repeatability
and resolution of the measurement system components
-vary randomly in repeated measurements.
-When repeated measurements are made under nominally
fixed operating conditions, random errors manifest
themselves as scatter of the measured data
-Because of the varying nature of random errors, exact
values can not be given, but the probable estimate for the
range of random error can be made through statistical
analyses.
-Random errors are identified and quantified through
repeated measurements and statistical analysis of the
result.

Measurement errors
1.
2.

Systematic error
Random error

Treat an error as:

Precision error if it can be statistically
estimated in some manner (data scatter)
Bias error other-wise (cannot be
directly discerned
by statistical methods,
e.g. by repeating
measurements).

Uncertainty analysis-error
propagation
Q=V/t

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Example 5.3 pg 161-162

For a displacement transducer having
a calibration curve y=KE.

Advanced Stage And Single Measurement

UncertaintyAnalysis
More on how the effect of procedural and
test control (i.e.: time, repeatability, etc)
It is called advance stage because it is
used in the advanced stage of
measurement, beyond the design stage.
Single measurement: involved
measurement over arrange of one or more
parameters but with no or relatively few
replication at each test condition

Example 5.5
A stopwatch is to be used to estimate the time between the
start of an event and the end of this event. Event duration
might range from several seconds to 10 min. Estimate the
probable uncertainty in a time estimate using a handoperated stopwatch that claims an accuracy of 1
min/month and a resolution of 0.01 s.

Example 5.6
A flow meter can be calibrated by providing a known flow rate to the meter
measuring the meter output. One method of calibration with liquid systems is the use
catch and time technique whereby a volume of liquid. after passing through the meter
diverted to a tank for a measured period of time from which the flow rate. volume/time
is computed. There are two procedures that can be used to determine the known flow
rate, Q. in. say. ft3/min;
1. The volume of liquid,V, caught in known time, t, can be measured.
Suppose we arbitrarily set t=6 s and assume that our available facilities
determine volume (at Nth order) to +0.001 ft3. Note: The chosen time value
depends on how much liquid we can accommodate in the tank.
2. The time. t. required to collect l ft3 of liquid can be measured.
Based on Example 5.5. assume an Nth order uncertainty in time of +0.l5 s. This
uncertainty includes our ability to control the on/off time and watch accuracy
assumes that the diversion of flow is instantaneous. In either case the same
instruments are used. Determine which method is better to minimize uncertainty
over a range of flow rates based on these preliminary estimates.

05_05

Multiple Measurement
uncertainty analysis

Estimation of uncertainty based on set of measurements that

are obtained under fixed operating condition.
Sufficient repetitions and replications must be present in the
measured data. Otherwise some estimate of magnitude of
expected variation must be provided in the analysis.
Method
i. Identify elemental errors in each of the three source
group(calibration, data acquisition and data reduction).
ii. Estimate magnitude of bias and precision error in each of the
elemental errors.
iii. Estimate the propagation of uncertainty through to the result

Study Case: Acoustic

Testing (Measurement
of reverberation time)

05_06

Multiple Measurement
uncertainty analysis
Example 5.9 pg 170-171
Example 5.11 pg 171-172

Propagation of uncertainty to a result

Example 5.15- page 177-179

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