Ukraine
2015
Table of Contents
Abstract .
3
Introduction
.. 3
Regional order, the Post-Communist Ties
.. 4
Ukraines conflict and its importance
.. 6
Russias involvement in Ukraines Crisis ...
.. 7
Ukraine and International Politics ...
... 9
The worst scenario for Post-soviet region
. 10
Solution for Ukraine?
.. 11
Conclusion ...
12
Bibliography
13
Abstract
After the long time realism is still actual theory among the World politic,
democratic states fight with each other, the world is divided into the sphere
of influences and the order is still the most important factor for a states
survival. (Huntington, 1968)
Introduction
After the end of the Cold War Era, the world is the first time under the threat
of the Cold War being renewed and the danger raised from Russian-Ukraine
conflict.
The Cold War ended on December 1991 when 3 countries in Belovezh Ukraine, Byelorussia and Russia itself declared independence and the Soviet
Union was dissolved. (Iskauskas, 2009) The end of the Cold War was not
followed by any international conference, that would decide who was the
winner and the loser between the two sides, was not followed by any
3
reparations, division of sphere of influence. The United States new that they
had won the Cold War, though Reagan had never claimed, that he bested
Soviet Union. (Kingsbury, 2010) Because of these facts, there have been
other ideas about the end of Cold War, ideas that it was the winning for both
Superpowers, and that the Soviet Union did not collapse because of external
pressures, it ended because Mikhail Gorbachev maneuvered it out of
exclusive power, he ended Communist rule. For Soviet Unions own interest.
(Kingsbury, 2010) Soviet Union didnt recognized the defeat and losing the
influence over the post-Soviet countries, thats why its Laws successor
Russia considered and still considers itself as a Regional power, deems that
the Post-Soviet region is still the sphere of Russias own interest.
After the end of Cold War, Russia had chance to create itself a new regional
order in the post-Soviet area and if it would be willing to accept the broad
rules of global interaction imposed, then it would be able to create its own
regional order. Beside this both former US Presidents George H. W. Bush and
Clinton promised Russian President Boris Yeltsin that NATO would not
expand. (Slobodchikof, 2014)
Because of this, the US and Russia interests never crossed each over until
NATO and EU decision to expand. Enlarging NATO and EU, their willingness
ofer western course to post-Soviet countries is a hampering factor for
Russias hegemonic order in region, it also causes security dilemma, as
NATO troops systematically getting closer at Russias border.
(Putin, 2011)
The main idea for Putin is to create power that would be counterbalance
of EU and ruled by Russia.
After analyzing Russias desires, it is obvious what they want in Ukraine:
Ukraine is new and very important area on Eurasian chessboard, it
is a geopolitical center, without Ukraine Russia have no chance
being Eurasian Empire.
(Br
zezinski, 1997)
adopted
Russian
as
second
language,
two
western
regions
10
Ukraine also has a great importance for west. About Ukraines importance we
can assume from 5 billion investments made by US in Ukraine since 1991 for
democracy-promotion, also by Victoria Nulands leaked phone call talking
about US involvement in future development of processes. Also then country
wants to be EU member there are several rather hard procedures, reforms to
be done until becoming member, while Ukraine had several problems in this
field for example corruption, problems with minorities. What we can deduce
from this leak phone call is that, at first US still has the great influence on
worlds politics, still remains its hegemonic power and is a main decision
maker. Secondly Russias role or desire being regional power is not wellestimated, also supportive promises made by US encourages post-Soviet
countries against Russia, that ends with separatism and with conflicts,
maybe with such behaviors US tries to weaken Russias influence in region,
but at the same time causes chaos.
11
Mears
heimer, 2014)
Looking at Western social engineering in Ukraine Russia worries that their
country might be next, so we cannot say Russia could see what was going on
in Ukraine without any actions.
12
13
In south Caucasus, the important country for Russia is Georgia, which has the
same problem with Russia as Ukraine and it is hard to find way out. Georgia
will not get used and will not recognize the independence of its regions as its
not prospective from Russia to refuse Abkhazia and South Ossetia being its
part, this seems a vicious circle, where there is no way out. (Batashvili, 2014)
Russian influence is very considerable in central Asia - Kazakhstan, Tajikistan
and Kirgizstan are depended on Russia. Russia has less influence on
Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, but on the way making Eurasian Union, they
could not make serious problem for Russia.
This might be the worst scenario for post-Soviet region. Russia is still the
main challenge for NATO and having the hegemonic desires, wants to
reestablish Soviet Union.
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Conclusion
After the end of Cold War, situation has never been tensioned between
Russia and Western countries, though the fate of cold war was not decided
by any conference both superpowers had their own sphere of influence that
did not cross each other until EU and NATO decided to expand on the
territory of former Soviet Union. Russia as a successor of Soviet Union always
considered that post-Soviet region is an area of its own influence, especially
Ukraine has crucial role for Russias regional power, as without it Russia
cannot be the Eurasian Empire. Russia cannot stand losing control on it. Also
letting Ukraine being the marionette region under Russias control will be
defeat of EU and for whole Euro Atlantic region. Ukraine has already lost
Crimea; the fate of other post-Soviet countries is depended on how the crisis
will continue. There are diferent scenarios what can happened but for the
better future of world, the best case would be negotiations.
Moreover, I think world politics need to try to decide problematic issues at
the table of negotiation, if this is era of liberalism.
15
Bibliography
Balouzhiyeh, J. (2014, April, 14) Russias annexation of Crimea: An analyses
under the principles of Jus ad bellum. Retrieved September 9, 2015, from
http://www.lexisnexis.com/legalnewsroom/internationallaw/b/international-law-blog/archive/2014/04/14/russia-s-annexation-ofcrimea-an-analysis-under-the-principles-of-jus-ad-bellum.aspx
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example of failed regionalism? Review of international studies, 35, 237256. British international studies association, Retrieved September 9,
2015
http://commonweb.unifr.ch/artsdean/pub/gestens/f/as/files/4760/39349_2
01842.pdf
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