(TS AND-SUGGESTIONS OF UFO PANEL General. ‘The Panel Members were impressed with the lack of sound data in the great majority of case histories. Among the case historids of significant sightings discussed in detail were the following: a Bellefontaine, Ohio (1 August 1952); Tremonton, Utab (2 suly 1952); Great Falls, Monvana (15 August 1950); Yaak, Montana (1 September 1952); Washington, D.C. area (18 July 1952); and Haneda A.F.B., Japan (5 August 1952), Port Ruroa, Michigan. (29 July.1952); and Presque Isle, Maine (10 October 1952). . After review and discussion of these cases (and about 15 oth , in less detail), the Panel concluded that reasonable e: planations could-be suggested for nost sight~ ings and “by deduction and scientific method it could be induced (given additional-data) that other cases might be explained in a similar manner”, The Panel_pointed out that because of the brovity of sone sightings (0.¢.; 2-2 seconds and the inability of the witnesses to express thenselves clearly (senzntics) that-conclusive explanations could not 5 be expected tor every case reported, Furthermore, it was considered that, normally, it would be a great vaste of effort to try to solve nost of the sightings, unless such —COMBIENTS AND SUGGESTIONS OF UFO PANEL General ‘The Paael Members were impressed with the lack of sound data in the great najority of case histories. Anong the case historics of significant sightings discussed in detail were the following: Bellefoataine, Ohio (1 August 1982); Tremonton, vtab (2 duly 1952); Great Falis, Monzana (15 August 1950); Yaak, Montana (1 September 1952); Washington, D.C. avea (19 July 1952); and Haneda A.P.B., Japan (5 August 1952), Port Huron, Michigan (29 July 1952); and Presque Isle, Haine (10 October 1952). : After review and discussion of these cases (and about, 1S others, in less detail), the Panel concluded that reasonable explanations could be suggested for nost sight~ ings and “by deduction and scientific method it could be induced (given additional data) that other cases might be explained in a similar manner", The Panel pointed out that because of the brevity of sone sightings (e.g.,' 2-3 seconds) and the inability of the witnesses to express thenselves clearly (senantics) that conclusive explanations could not be expected for every-case reported, Furthermore, it was considered that, norally, 1t would be a great waste of effort to try to solve nost of the sightings, unless such —action would benefit a training and educational program « . (see below), The-writings of Charles Fort were referenced . to show that "strange things in the sky" had been recorded for hundreds of years, It appeared obvious that there was no single explanation for a majority of the things scen. 0a Lack of Danger. : ‘The Panel concluded unaninously that there was no © 7 evidence of a direct threat to national security in the objects sighted. Instances of "Foo Fighters" were cited. ‘These were unexplained phenomena sighted by aircraft pilots during World War II in both Furopean and Far Fast theaters of operation-wherein "balls of light" would fly near or with the aircraft and maneuver rapidly. They were believed to be electrostatic (sinilar to St. Elmo's fire) or electronagnetic phenomena or possibly Light reflections from ice crystals in the air, but-their-exact cause or pature was never defined: If the term "flying caucors” had been popular-in 1943-1945, these objects would have been so labeled. Air Force Reporting Syste! It was the Panel's opinion that some of the Air Force concern over UFO's (notwithstanding Air Defense Command anxiety over fast radar tracks) was probably caused by public pressure. The result today {s.that the Air Force 2, t i t has instituted a fino channol for receiving reports of nearly anything anyone sees in the sky and fails to under- stand. Tais has been particularly encouraged in popular articles on this and other subjects, such as space travel and science fiction. ‘The result is the mass receipt of © low-grade reports which tond to overload channels of conaunication with material quite irrelevant to hostile objects that might sone day appear. “The Panel agreed general}y that this mass of poor-quality reports containing little, if any, scientific data was of no value. Quite the opposite, it was possibly dangerous in having a military service foster public concern-in "nocturnal meandering lights”. The implication being, since the interested agency was military; that these objects were or-night be potential direct threats to national security. Accordingly, the need for deemphasization mado itself apparent. Comments on a possible educational program are enumerated below. It was the opinion of one of the Panel menbers. that the "saucer" problem had-beon-found to be different in nature fron the detection and investigation of German V-1 and V-2 guided missiles-prior to their, operational use in World War II. In this 1943-1044 intelligence operation (CROSSBOW), there was excellent intelligence, and by June 31944 there was material evidence of the. existenco of “hardware obtained from crashed vehicles in Sweden. This, evidence gave the investigating team a basis upon which to operate. The absence of any "hardware" resulting from unexplained UFO sightings lends a wyill-of-the-wisp” nature to the problem, The results of the investigation, to date, strongly indicate that no evidence of hostile act or danger exists. Furthermore, the current reporting systen would have little value in the case of detection of encay attack by conventional Aircraft or guided missiles; under such conditions "hardware" would be available almost at once. Artifacts 0! xtraterrestial Origin. It was interesting to note that none of the members of the Panel were loath to accept that this earth might be visited by extraterrestrial intelligences beings of sone cort, soxe day, Vhat thoy did not find vas any evidence that related the objects sighted to space travelers. One of the Panel menbers, in his presentation, showed how he had eliminated each of the known and probable causes of sightings leaving him "oxtra-terrestial” as, the only one ~~ renaining in many cases, His background as, an acronaut~ teal engineer and technical intelligence officer could not be slighted. However, the Panel could not accept any of 7 4the cases cited by him because thoy were xaw, unevaluated reports. Terrestrial explanations of the sightingswere suggested in-some cases, and in others the tine of sighting was so short as to cause suspicion of visual impressions. It was noted by others of the Panel members that extra- terrestrial artifacts, if they did exist, oF no cause for alarm; rather, they are-in. the realm of natural phenomena subject to scientific study, just as cosmic rays were at . the time of their discovery 20 to 30 years ago. This was an attitude in which another of the Panel members did not concur, as he-felt-that such artifacts would be of innediate and great concern not only to the U.S, but to all countries. (Nothing likea_common threat to unite peoples!) It was noted that present astronomical knowledge of the solar systen makes the existence of intelligesce beitigs (as we know the tora) elsewhore than on the earth extremely unlikely, and the concentration of their attention by any controllable means confined to any one continent of the earth quite preposterous. Tremonton, Utah, Sighting. ‘This case was considered significant because of the excellent documentary evidence in the form of Kodachrone notion picture films (about 1600 frames). The Panel 5a Studied these filns, the case history, ATIC's interpreta~ tion, and received a briefing by representatives of the USN Photo Interpretation Laboratory on their analysis of the filn. This team had expended (at Air Force request) approximately 1000 man-hours of professional and sub- professional time in the preparation of graph plots of individual fvanes of the film, showing apparent and - Telative motion of objects and variation in. their light intensity. It was the opinion of the P.I.L, representatives that the objects sighted were not birds, balloons or aircraft, were "sot reflections because there was no blinking while passing through 60° of arc" and were, therefore, "self=luminous". Plots of notion and variation in light intensity of-the objects were displayed. While the Panel Neabers were impressed by tho evident cnthusiasn, industry and extent of €ffort of the P.Y.L. team, they would not accept the conclusions reached. Some of the reasons for this were as follows: a. A semi-spherical ohject can readily’ produce a reflection of sunlight without "blink- ing" through 60° of arc travel. b. Although no date was available on the “albedo” of birds or polyethylene balloons 6in brignt sunlight, the apparent notions, sizes and brightnosses of the objects were considered strongly to suggest birds, particularly after the panel viewed a short filu showing high reflectivity of seagulls in bright sunlight. ce. P.t.b, description of the objects sighted as “olvcular, bluish-vhite” in color would be expected in cases of specular reflections of ‘sun~ Light from convex surfaces where the brilliance of the reflection would obscure other portions of the object 4, Objects inthe Great Falls case were believed to have probably been aircraft, aud the bright Lights such reflections. e. There was no valid yeason for the attempt to relate the objects in the Tremonton sighting to + those in the-Great Falls sighting. This may have been due to misunderstanding in thelr directive. The objects in-the Great Falls sighting are strongly suspected of being Yeflectious of air= : craft known to have been in the area. 4, Tho intensity change in the Tremonton Lights was too great for acceptance of the P.I.L, hypothesis that the apparent motion and changing 7 : :i { intensity of the lights indicated extrenely high speed in small orbital paths. . &. Apparent lack “of guidance of investi- gators by those familiar with UFO reports and explanations, . h, Analysis of light intensity of objects wade from duplicate rather than original fiin. The original film vas noted to have a much lighter background (affecting relative brightness of object) and the objects appeared much less bright: 4, —Method of obtaining data of light intensity appeared faulty because of unsuitability of equipment and questionable assunptions in making averages of readings, Jy No data had been obtained on the sensi« tivity of Kodachrone filn-to-light of various intensities using the sane canera type at the sare lens openings, k, Hand "jitter". frequencies (obtainable frox early part of Tremonton film) vere not : : renoved from the plots of the "single pass plots” at the end of the fila. . 8‘The Panel believed strongly that, the data available on this sighting was sufficiont for positive identification if further éata is obtained by photographing polyethylene . “pilloz” balloons released near the site under sinilar weather conditions, checking bird flight and reflection characteristics with conpotent ornithologists and calculating apparent "G" forces acting upon objects from their apparent — tracks. It was concluded that the results of such tests would probably lead to creditable explanations of value in an education2l or training program. However, the Panel. noted thatthe cost in tecbnical manpower effort required to foley up-and explain every one of the thousand or more reports received through channels each year (1,900 in 1952) eculd not be justified: —It was felt that there will ql alvays ba sightings, for which_complete data is lacking, that can only be explained with disproportionate effort and with long tine delay, {fat all. The long delay in explainiag-a sighting tends to eliminate eny intelligence value. Tze educational or training progran should have as a najor purpose the elimination of popular feeling that every sighting; no matter how poor the data, must be explained in detail, Attontion-should be directed to the requirenent among scientists that a new phenomena, to be accepted, must be complotely and convincingly docunented. 9In other words, the burden of proof is on the sighter, | not the explainer. Potential Related Dangers. - ‘The-Panel Members were in agreeuent that although evidence of any direct threat from these, sightings was wholly lacking, related-dangers might.well exist resulting fron: a. Misidentification of actual eneny arti- facts by defense personnel. : b. Overloading of omergency reporting channels with "false" information ("noiseto signal ratio"). e. Subjectivity of public to mass hysteria and greater vulnerability to possible eneny--— psychological warfare. The first two of these problems may seriously affect the Air Defense intelligence system, and should be studied by experts, possibly undor-ADC. It UFO's become dis~ credited in a reaction to the "flying saucer" scare, or if. reporting channels are saturated with false and poorly docunented reports, our capability of detecting hostile activity will be reduced, Hore competent. screening or filtering of reported sightings at or near the source is 20required, and this‘can best be accomplished by an educa tional program, Geographic Locations of unex ained Sightings, ‘The map prepared by ATIC showing geographic locations of officially reported unexplained sightings (1952 only) was exenined by the Panel, ‘This nap showed clusters in certain strategic areas such as Los Alazos. ‘This night be explained on the basis of 24-hour watehtul guard and awareness of security measures near such locations.- oa the other hand, there had been no sightings in-the vicinity of sensitive related AE establishaonts while there vere occasionally nultiple-cases of unexplained sightings in non-strategic areas. Furthernore, there appeared to be no logical-relationship to population ceaters. ‘The Panel could fizd no ready explanation for these elusteys. It was noted, hovever, that if terrestrial artifacts were to be observed, it would be likely that they would be seen first near foreign areas rather than central U.S, Inst: tion to Obtain Data. . ‘The Panel.was of the opinion that the present ATIC Progran to place 100 inexpensive 35 na. stereo cameras (Wideon Cazeras) in the hands of various airport coatrol * tover operators would probably produces 2 able n xdata Felated to UFO's. However, it was recognized that such action would tend to allay-public concern in the subject until an educational program had taken effect. It : was believed that procurement of these cameras was partly the result of public pressure in July 1952. With the poor results of the year-long Project TWINKLE progran of 24-hour instrunentation.wateh (two frames of filn shoving nothing distinguishable), a widespread progran of skywatching would not be expected to yield much direct data of value. ‘there-ves.considerablediscussion of A possible "sky patrol" by anateur-astrononers and by wide-angle caneras. It was pointed out that at ‘present a considerable fraction of the sky is now ==-and has been for many. years -=--under 5 surveillsace-every-clear-night in several meteor and aurora observizg prograns as well 2s sky mapping prograns at the various locations listed belov. Although the attention of these astrononers is lergely directed toward identified : rather than unidentified objects, no case of any striking unidentified odject is knowa-to the Panel.’ Such an object would nost certainly be reported if found on patrol plates. A caso was cited where an astronomer refused to” ‘interrupt his exposure in order to photograph an alleged part ofthe sky, suggesting that if 12 sighting in a difze;:& program of watching could be an adjunct of planned astronouical programs, Little cost would be involved and that the trained astronomical personnel might photograph a sighting of an unidentified object. It was agreed by the Panel that no governnent-sponsored progran of optical nationwide sky patrol-is worthwhile at the present tine,-and that the encouragenent of anateur astronozers to undertake such a program might have the Adverse effect of over-enphasizing "flying saucer" stories in the public nind. —Rowever, the issue of radar-scope caneres for recording peculiar radar echoes would serve several purposes, including the better understanding of radar interference as well as identification of Uro's. Radar Problem of putual Interference. This characteristic problew of radar operation wherein the pulse signe] (of approximately the same “frequency) from station A may_be ‘picked Up on the screen of station B and shov as a high-speed track or series of dots was recognized to have probably caused a nunber of UFO regorts, This _problea was underlined: by information received indicating ADC concerf, in solving this problem of signal identification before service use of vory high-speed aircraft or guided nissiles (1955-1956). One 13Panel nenber believed that one answer. to this problen was the use of a "doppler filter" in the receiving circuit. Another suggested that the problem might be better solved by the use of a “controlled jitter" wherein the operator receiving "very-fast tracks" (on the order of 1000-23000 mph) would operate a circuit which would alter slightly his station's pulse frequency rate. If the signal received on the sereen-had been-caused-by-nutual interference with. another station, the track would now show itself at a diffrent distance from the center of the screen, if it still epeared at all, Such-a technical solution vas thought to be simpler and would cost much less than a "doppler filter". Unexplained Cosmi¢ pay Daenomena. Two reported cases were examined? one at Palomar Mountaiz, California, im October 1949, when cosnic ray counters went "off scale for a fow seconds", apparently while 2 "V" of flying saucers was observed visually; and two, @ series of observations by the "Los Alamos Bird Watohers Association” fron August 1950 to January 1951, when cosai¢ ray coincidence counters behaved queerly. Circuit diagrams and records were available’ for the latter, and a Panel menber was also quickly to point out that the recorded 42ta vere undoubtedly due to instrumental effects 4aaa caalial that would have been recognized as such by more experienced observers, The inplication that radioactive éffects were cor- related with unidentified flying objects in these two cases was, therefore, rejected by the Fanel. Educational Program: The Fanel's concept of a broad educational prograa integrating efforts of al1 concerned agencios was that it should have tvo major ains: training and "debunking". The training ain would result in, proper. recognition of unusually illuminated objects (o.g., balloons, aireratt reflections) as vell-as natural phenozena (meteors, fire= balls, nirages, noctilucent clouds). Both-visual and radar recognition are concerned. There vould be many levels in such education from-enlisted personnel to comand and research ‘sonnel, Relative emphasis and degree of explanation of-different prograns would correspond to the categories of duty (e.g., radar operators; pilots; control tover operators; Ground Observer Corps personnel; and officers and enlisted men in other categories), This training should result in a marked reduction in reports caused by nisidentification and resultant confusion. The "debuoking” ain would result in reduction in public interest in "flying saucers” which today evgkes a 15strong psychological reaction. This education could be accomplished by mass nodia such 2s television, potion pictures, and popular articles. Basis of such education . would be actual case histories which had boon puzzling : at first but later explained. As in the caso of conjuring tricks, there is much less. stimulation if the "secret" is known. Such a progran-should tend td reduco the current gullivility of the public and consequently their suscepti. bility to clever hostile propaganda, Menbers of the Panel had various suggestions related to the planning of such an educational prograa.—It was felt strongly that psychologists familiar with mass psy= chology saould advise on the-nature and extent of the progran. Also, ‘someone familiar with Hass conmunication 5 techniques, perhaps-an advertising expert, would be helpful. The tes techniques used=for-atroraft identification durizg the ptst war were cited as an exemple of 2 similar educational task, The amateur _astronouers in the U.S, might be a potential source-of enthusiastic talent "to spread the gospel". It Was believed that business clubs, high schools, colleges, and television stations would all be pleased to cooprate in the showing of documentary type notion pictures if prepared in an interesting manner. 16 iThe use of true cases showing first the "ayStery" and thon the “explanations” would be forceful. Jo plan and execute such a progran, the Dezel believed was no nean task. The current investigatory group at ATIC would, of necessity, have to be closely integrated for support with respect to not ‘only the historical cases but tho current ones. Recent cases are probably. nuch nore susceptible to explanation then older ones} first, becuse of ATIC's experience and, secondly, their knowledge of most plausible explanations. The Panel believed that some expansion of the-ATIC effort would certainly be required to sup! such @ prograa, It wag bolieved inappropriate to state exactly how large a Table of Organization would be required. Fanel believed that, with ATIC's support, the educati 1 prograa of "training and debunking” outlined above might be required for @ minimum of one and one-half to two years. At the end of this time, the dangers related to "£lyizg saucers" should havo been greatly reduced if not eliminated. Cooperation fron other military services and agencies concerned (¢.g., Federal Civil Defense Adainistra- tion) would be a necessity. In investigating significant cases (such as the Tremonton, Utah, sighting), controlled experinents might be required. An example would be the 7under sintlar weather conditions at ‘the site. The help of one or two psychologists an¢ writers and a subcontractor to produce training filns vould be necessazy in addition, The Panel corsidered that ATIC's efforts, tenporarily expanded 25 necessary, could be most useful in inplenenting any action taken as a result of its recomendetions. Experience and records in ATIC would be of value in both the public educational ané service training program envisaged.—At least one Panel nenber was of tho opinion that after-public-gullibility lessened and the service organizations,“such-as-ADC,.had been trained to. sift out the more readily explained spux lous sightings, there would still be a-role for a very nodest-sized: ATIC section to cope with the-residwum of items of possible seientific intelligence value. This section should con= centrate on energetically following up those cases which seemed to indieate the evidence of unconventional eneny artifacts. Reports of such artifacts would be expected to arise x: ialy from Western outposts in far cleser proximity to the Iron Curtain-than Lubbock, Texas! : Unofficial Investigating Groups. . cognizance of the existence of such ‘The Panel took grougs as the "Civilian Flying Saucer Investigators" 1si | | | | { | (Los Angeles) and the "horial-Paenonena Research Organ- , ization (Wisconsin)". It wes believed that such organiza- tions should be watched because of their potentially great infivence on mass thinking if widespread sightings should : occur, ‘The apparent irresponsibility and the possible use of such groups for subversive purposes should be kept in : mind, 5 Increase ta Nunber_of Sightings, The consensus of the Panel was, based upoa the history of the subject, that the number of sightings could be reasonably expected-to increase again this summer; 19SCIENTIFIC ADVISORY PANEL N UNIDENTIFIED FLYING OBJECTS 14-17 January 1953 Evidence Presented. 1. Seventy-five caso histories of sightings’ 1951-1052 (selected by ATIC as those best docunented). 2, ATIC Status and Progross Roports of Project GRDUGE and Project BLUE BOOK (code nanes for ATIC study of subject). 3. Progress Reports of Project STORK (Institute contract work supporting ATIC). 4. Summary Report of Sightings at Holloman Air Force Base, New Mexico. 5. Report of USAF Research Center, Cambridge, lass., Investigation of "Green Fireball" Phenomena (Project TWINKLE). 6. Outline of Investigation of UFO's Proposed by Kirtland Air Force Base (Project POUNCE); 7. Motion Picture Filns of sightings at Trenonton, Utah, 2 July 1952 and Great Falls, Montana, August 1950. 8. Sunnary-Report of 89 selected cases of sightings of various categories (Formations, Blinking Lights, Hovering, ete.). 9. Draft of manual: "How to Nake a FLYOBRPT pared at ATIC, i 1) pres 10. Chart Showing Plot of Geographic Location of Unexplained Sightings in the United States during 1952. 11, Chart Showing Balloon Launching Sites in the United States. 12, Charts Showing Selected Actual Balloon Flight Paths and Relation to Reported Sightings.1s. a4. 18. 16. az. 18. 1. 20. Charts Showing Froquency of-Reports of Sightings 1948-1952. Charts Showing Categories of Explanations of Sightings. Kodachrome Transparencies of Polyethylene Filn Balloons in Bright Sualight Showing liigh Reflectivity. tion Picture of Seagulls in Bright Sunlight Showing High Reflectivity. 52 Intelligence Reports Relating to U.S.S.R. Interest in U.S, Sightings. Sanples Of Official USAF Reporting Forns and Copies of Pertinent Air Force, Army, and Navy Orders Relating to Subject. Sanple— Polyethylene "Pillow" Balloon (54 inches square. hyariations in Radar Coverage", JANP.101 (Nanuel illustrating unugual operating ‘characteristics of service radar). Miscellaneous Official Letters and Foreign Intelli- gence Reports Dealing with Subject. Copies-of Popular Published Works Dealing with Subject (articles and periodicals, newspaper clippings) +