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Harga Minyak Jatuh ke Bawah US$ 27/Barel

Wahyu Daniel - detikfinance

Kamis, 21/01/2016 08:13 WIB
New York -Harga minyak yang diproduksi Amerika Serikat (AS) turun ke bawah US$
27/barel pada perdagangan Rabu, atau yang terendah sejak 2003 lalu. Pelaku pasar
khawatir akan makin melimpahnya pasokan minyak.
Sepanjang awal tahun ini, harga minyak sudah jatuh lebih dari 25%. Kondisi ini
menyakitkan untuk produsen minyak dan negara yang menggantungkan
pendapatannya dari ekspor minyak.
Data dari American Petroleum Institute menunjukkan, stok minyak AS meningkat
tinggi di atas ekspektasi pada pekan lalu. Stok minyak mentah AS naik 4,6 juta
barel menjadi 485,2 juta barel. Perkiraan sejumlah analis, hanya naik 2,8 juta barel.
Venezuela telah mengajukan permintaan untuk diadakan rapat darurat OPEC,
membahas penurunan harga tersebut. Namun permintaan itu tampaknya ditolak.
Harga minyak juga jatuh karena ada ekspektasi penambahan pasokan dari Iran,
pasca dilepasnya sanksi ekonomi.
"Iran ikut bertarung memperebutkan pangsa pasar di Eropa. Saat ini Eropa
diperebutkan juga oleh Arab Saudi, Rusia, dan AS," kata Analis, John Kilduff dilansir
dari Reuters, Kamis (21/1/2016).
Harga kontrak berjangka minyak AS untuk pengiriman Februari turun US$ 1.91
(6,7%) ke US$ 26,55/barel. Sementara untuk pengiriman Maret turun 4% menjadi
US$ 28,35/barel.
Sementara minyak jenis Brent untuk pengiriman Maret, harganya turun 88 sen
(2,7%) menjadi US$ 27,88/barel.
Penurunan harga minyak dunia ini membuat bursa saham dunia berjatuhan.

As a rout in Chinese stocks this year erased $5 trillion of value, investors fled for safety in the
nations red-hot corporate bond market. They may have just moved from one bubble to another.

So says Commerzbank AG, which puts the chance of a crash by year-end at 20 percent, up from
almost zero in June. Industrial Securities Co. and Huachuang Securities Co. are warning of an
unsustainable rally after bond prices climbed to six-year highs and issuance jumped to a record.
The boom contrasts with caution elsewhere. A selloff in global corporate notes has pushed yields
to a 21-month high, and credit-derivatives traders are demanding near the most in two years to
insure against losses on Chinese government securities.
While an imminent collapse isnt yet the base-case scenario for most forecasters, Chinas 42.2
trillion yuan ($6.7 trillion) bond market is flashing the same danger signs that triggered a tumble
in stocks four months ago: stretched valuations, a surge in investor leverage and shrinking
corporate profits. A reversal would add to challenges facing Chinas ruling Communist Party,
which has struggled to contain volatility in financial markets amid the deepest economic
slowdown since 1990.
The Chinese government is caught between a rock and hard place," said Zhou Hao, a senior
economist in Singapore at Commerzbank, Germanys second-largest lender. "If it doesnt
intervene, the bond market will actually become a bubble. And if it does, the market could crash
the way the equity market did due to fast de-leveraging.

The slide in stocks is one reason why corporate bonds have done so well, prompting a 91 percent
jump in issuance last quarter. Many investors who sold shares during the Shanghai Composite
Indexs 38.4 percent drop from its June high have plowed the proceeds into debt, viewing the
market as a haven given its history of almost negligible defaults. Five interest-rate cuts since
November have also fueled gains as the Peoples Bank of China seeks to revive growth with
lower borrowing costs.
Yields on top-rated corporate notes due in five years have declined 79 basis points, or 0.79
percentage point, this year to 4.01 percent. The yield premium over similar-maturity government
securities has dropped to 97 basis points, near the lowest since 2009.

By contrast, the yield on corporate notes globally has increased 26 basis points to 2.92 percent.
Credit-default swaps on Chinas sovereign debt jumped to a more than two-year high of 133
basis points in September and were last at 113 basis points.

Risks Rise
A reversal in the bond market would do more damage to Chinas economy than the drop in
shares and exacerbate capital flight from the biggest emerging market, according to a worst-case
scenario projected by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA. The Spanish lender more than
doubled its first-quarter profit by selling holdings in a Chinese bank.
The equity rout merely reflects worries about Chinas economy, while a bond market crash
would mean the worries have become a reality as corporate debts go unpaid," said Xia Le, the
chief economist for Asia at Banco Bilbao. "A Chinese credit collapse would also likely spark a
more significant selloff in emerging-market assets.
For all the concerns about a bond rout, default levels in China have so far been remarkably low,
thanks in part to government-orchestrated bailouts for troubled firms. Just four companies have
defaulted on onshore bonds, including Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology Co.,
which became the first to renege on its debt in 2014.

Government Firepower
China has the wherewithal to stave off a crisis in its credit markets, according to Ken Hu, chief
investment officer for Asia-Pacific fixed income at Invesco Ltd. "Unlike most other emergingmarket countries, China has high domestic saving rates, little government debt, healthy fiscal
balances, strong trade and current account surpluses, and most of its corporate debts are
domestic," he said.
Policy makers went to unprecedented lengths to combat the tumble in share prices, including
compelling state-owned firms to buy equities and preventing major stockholders from selling.
The Shanghai Composite rose 1.27 percent on Friday, its second straight day of advance after a
week-long national holiday.
A recovery in the equity market could be the trigger for a selloff in bonds as money managers
liquidate their holdings to catch the rally in stocks, according to Thomas Kwan, the Hong Kongbased chief investment officer at Harvest Global Investments Ltd., whose Chinese unit offers
funds through the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor program.

Warning Signs
The risk of a downward spiral in debt prices has increased after investors took on leverage to
amplify their returns, according to Ping An Securities Co. The monthly volume of bond
repurchase agreements -- a form of borrowing used by investors to increase their buying power -has jumped 83 percent from January to 39 trillion yuan in September, according to data from the
Chinamoney website.

About 16 percent of companies on the Shanghai stock exchange lost money in the past 12
months, double the proportion last year, and the number of firms with debt levels twice their
equity has doubled to 347 since 2007. Profits at Chinese industrial companies sank 8.8 percent in
August from a year earlier, the biggest decline since the government began releasing monthly
data in 2011.
Baoding Tianwei Yingli New Energy Resources Co., a maker of solar components, could become
the latest Chinese company to default on local-currency notes after its parent said its unlikely to
meet a deadline next week on a 1 billion yuan bond.
Global investors are looking for signs of a collapse in China, which itself could increase the
chances of a crash, Commerzbanks Zhou said. This game cant go on forever."