Comentarios
• El viernes pasado, Fitch rebajó la calificación de la deuda griega hasta BBB- (solo un grado por encima de la deuda basura) desde el
nivel de BBB+, con una perspectiva negativa. Y ayer, los líderes de la Eurozona y el FMI acordaron unas medidas de rescate valoradas
en 45.000 millones; la zona euro suministrará 30.000 millones de EUR en créditos a 3 años, a 5 pct aproximadamente (la deuda griega a
3 años está en el 6,98%). El déficit griego de 2009 aumentó hasta el 12,9% del PIB desde el 12,7% de la semana pasada.
• Las actas del BoJ muestran que dos miembros del mismo expresaron su descontento con la expansión en el programa de crédito del
banco, que se duplicó el mes pasado, llegando hasta 20 billones de JPY, alegando que la acción era innecesaria, dada la mejoría de
la economía, y porque podría provocar un malentendido sobre el grado de alivio cuantitativo monetario.
• Alcoa marca hoy el comienzo de la temporada de ganancias de EE.UU. y tratará de mejorar las expectativas de los analistas de situar
las GPA en torno a 0,092 frente al -0,22 del T4. Hoy optamos por comprar con la vista puesta en la situación griega, en un día muy lento
por cuanto se refiere a datos macroeconómicos.
2.5
100
1.5 80
60
0.5
0
40
01-dec 01-feb 01-apr 01-jun 01-aug 01-okt 01-dec 01-feb 01-apr
13-04-2009 13-06-2009 13-08-2009 13-10-2009 13-12-2009 13-02-2010
USBreakeven 10 Year Saxo CDS Index
USD breakeven 10 Year – an expression for Credit Default Swaps are expressions for
measuring inflation expectations. the perceived default risk in a company.
AAA and BAA Corporate Bondsvs. 30yr USTreasuries
EURUSD Opt. Vol.
35 7
30 6
5
25
4
20
3
15
2
10
1
5
0
0
aug-08 nov-08 feb-09 maj-09 aug-09 nov-09 feb-10
04-08 06-08 08-08 10-08 12-08 02-09 04-09 06-09 08-09 10-09 12-09 02-10 04-10
EUR-USD OPT VOL 1W EUR-USD OPT VOL 1M EUR-USD OPT VOL 1Y Moody BAA - US Generic Govt 30 Year Yield Moody AAA - USGeneric Govt 30 Year Yield
Volatility at different time horizons. Too low, now? Spreads are easing, but still showing tight
corporate debt markets.
PIIGSCDS 5 year CBOE SPX VOLATILITY INDEX
500 35
450
30
400
25
350
300
20
250
15
200
150 10
100
5
50
0
0
sep-09 okt-09 nov-09 dec-09 jan-10 feb-10 mar-10
jul-09 aug-09 sep-09 okt-09 nov-09 dec-09 jan-10 feb-10 mar-10
CBOE SPX VOLATILITY INDX
Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Spain
1
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